Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the gold production of Agnico Eagle decreased by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter to 26.94 tons, while net profit increased by 31.2% to $1.069 billion [2][7] - The average gold price in Q2 2025 was $3,288 per ounce, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.7% [2][3] - The company expects to meet its annual gold production guidance for 2025, having achieved approximately 51% of the midpoint of its guidance in the first half of the year [13] Production and Operational Summary - **Production**: Q2 2025 gold production was 866,029 ounces (26.94 tons), a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.9% [2][16] - **Sales**: Gold sales in Q2 2025 were 846,835 ounces (26.34 tons), a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5% [2][16] - **Cost Metrics**: - Unit production cost in Q2 2025 was $911 per ounce, up 5.7% year-on-year and 3.6% quarter-on-quarter [3][16] - Total cash cost per ounce was $933, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [3][16] - All-in sustaining cost (AISC) was $1,289 per ounce, up 10.3% year-on-year [3][16] Financial Performance - **Revenue**: Q2 2025 revenue was $2.816 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.1% [4][17] - **Net Income**: Net income for Q2 2025 was $1.069 billion, a year-on-year increase of 126.5% [7][17] - **Adjusted Net Income**: Adjusted net income was $976 million, up 82.4% year-on-year [8][17] - **EBITDA**: Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $1.914 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62.8% [9][17] - **Free Cash Flow**: Free cash flow before changes in non-cash working capital balances was $792 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [11][17] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures in Q2 2025 totaled $538 million, with capitalized exploration expenditures of $78 million [12][17] - Total capital expenditures for the first half of 2025 were $957 million [12][17] Guidance for 2025 - The company maintains its guidance for 2025, expecting gold production to be between 3.3 million and 3.5 million ounces [18]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [6]. Core Insights - AMG Lithium sold 13,278 tons of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025, a 9% increase from Q1 2025, but a 22% decrease from Q2 2024. The average selling price for lithium concentrate was $621 per ton, down 3% from the previous quarter [1]. - The average cost of lithium concentrate decreased by 15% to $489 per ton, showing a 10% year-over-year decline [1]. - AMG Technologies reported a significant revenue increase of 53% to $241 million in Q2 2025, driven by higher antimony sales prices [13]. Summary by Sections 1. AMG Lithium - In Q2 2025, AMG Lithium's revenue was $36.997 million, a 3% year-over-year decline due to a 38% drop in lithium market prices and a 22% decrease in lithium concentrate production [9]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 66%, primarily due to a reduction in the cost per ton of lithium concentrate [9]. 2. AMG Vanadium - AMG Vanadium's revenue decreased by 4% to $161 million in Q2 2025, attributed to lower production of ferrovanadium and titanium alloys [10]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company benefited from the Inflation Reduction Act, qualifying for domestic production subsidies [10]. 3. AMG Technologies - AMG Technologies achieved a revenue increase of 53% to $241 million in Q2 2025, largely due to rising antimony sales prices [13]. - The adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $53 million, nearly tripling from the previous year [13]. 4. Financial Performance - Overall revenue for Q2 2025 was $439 million, a 20% increase year-over-year, with adjusted gross profit rising by 60% to $97.304 million [4]. - Operating profit reached $33.622 million, a 225% increase compared to the same quarter last year [15].

- The "Volume-Price Industry Rotation" portfolio achieved a 100% monthly win rate this year[1][7] - The "Volume-Price Industry Rotation" portfolio uses six dimensions of volume-price factors: momentum, trading volatility, turnover rate, long-short comparison, volume-price divergence, and volume-amplitude alignment[7] - The "Volume-Price Industry Rotation" portfolio is constructed by selecting the top five industries with the highest composite factor values at the end of each month, using equal weighting among factors and industries[8] - The cumulative return of the "Volume-Price Industry Rotation" portfolio from 2010 to July 2025 was 797.59%, with an excess return of 686.47% relative to the equal-weighted industry portfolio[9] - The "Positive Expectations and Non-Crowded" industry portfolio achieved an excess return of 2.02% in July[2][11] - The "Positive Expectations and Non-Crowded" industry portfolio is constructed by combining an analyst expectation composite factor and a crowding degree indicator, excluding the 15 industries with the lowest crowding degree, and selecting the top five industries with the highest analyst expectation composite factor values[2][11] - The cumulative return of the "Positive Expectations and Non-Crowded" industry portfolio from 2010 to July 2025 was 1145.44%, with an excess return of 1034.33% relative to the equal-weighted industry portfolio[11] - The "Volume-Price Industry Rotation" portfolio achieved a 13.69% return this year, with an excess return of 4.36% relative to the equal-weighted industry portfolio[1][10] - The "Positive Expectations and Non-Crowded" industry portfolio achieved a 5.25% return this year, with an excess return of -4.08% relative to the equal-weighted industry portfolio[11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The impact of the copper tariffs is limited, with a concentrated import source [3] - The share of imports from China is minimal, indicating a non-major reliance [4] - The restructuring of the U.S. copper industry will require a long period [5] - Copper prices are expected to return to supply-demand pricing [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On July 30, President Trump signed an announcement imposing a 50% tariff on certain copper imports, effective August 1. This includes semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while raw copper materials and scrap are exempt from these tariffs [2] Analysis and Judgment - The copper tariffs are expected to have a limited impact on U.S. copper imports, with 2024 imports totaling 610,300 tons, primarily from Chile (33.6%), Canada (30.4%), and Mexico (7.6%). In the first half of 2025, imports reached 1,011,900 tons, with a significant portion being raw materials exempt from tariffs [3] - The affected product categories from China account for less than 5% of total U.S. imports, indicating a limited impact [4] - The announcement requires that by 2027, 25% of copper raw materials produced in the U.S. must be sold domestically, increasing to 40% by 2029, which aims to enhance U.S. smelting capacity [5] - Due to the lack of restrictions on raw copper, the COMEX copper premium has disappeared, and it is anticipated that copper will flow to other markets, leading to a return to supply-demand pricing [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 49.34 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 3.01% year-on-year. However, in Q2 2025, revenue was 24.50 billion yuan, down 2.60% year-on-year, and net profit was 949 million yuan, down 8.25% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Business Performance - External sales revenue showed steady growth, while domestic sales faced short-term pressure. In H1 2025, the HVAC segment generated revenue of 23.69 billion yuan, up 4.07% year-on-year, with the central air conditioning business affected by the real estate renovation market, leading to a decline in Hisense Hitachi's revenue by 6.0% year-on-year. The new air conditioning segment saw rapid growth, with a 48% increase in revenue for the high-end series [3] - The washing and refrigeration segment achieved revenue of 15.39 billion yuan, up 4.76% year-on-year, with retail sales of Rongsheng refrigerators and Hisense refrigerators increasing by 9.7% and 8.6% respectively. Hisense washing machines focused on technological upgrades and scenario-based innovations, with domestic revenue up 37.6% year-on-year [3] - Other main businesses generated revenue of 6.61 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year, with the three electric companies achieving a 3% year-on-year revenue increase and new business rights of 6.9 billion yuan, laying a foundation for future order growth [3] - By region, domestic revenue in H1 2025 was 25.25 billion yuan, down 0.31% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 20.45 billion yuan, up 12.34% year-on-year, with significant growth in Europe (22.7%), the Americas (26.2%), and the Middle East and Africa (22.8%) [3] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 21.48%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The HVAC segment's gross margin was 27.12%, down 1.56 percentage points, while the washing and refrigeration segment's gross margin was 18.74%, up 2.12 percentage points. The gross margin for other main businesses was 15.80%, up 0.99 percentage points [4] - Domestic gross margin was 31.02%, down 0.06 percentage points, while overseas gross margin was 12.33%, up 1.35 percentage points, attributed to scale effects and product improvements [4] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 6.06%, down 0.17 percentage points, and for Q2 2025, it was 5.53%, down 0.41 percentage points, influenced by exchange losses and increased operational costs due to organizational restructuring [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on smart living strategies and technological innovation, with a diverse brand matrix including Hisense, Rongsheng, Kelon, Hitachi, and York, catering to differentiated customer needs. Hisense's brand value and recognition continue to rise, supported by sponsorship of major international sports events, enhancing its global brand influence [6] Financial Forecast - The company adjusted its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 99.2 billion yuan, 106.8 billion yuan, and 114.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 3.72 billion yuan, 4.21 billion yuan, and 4.66 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 2.68 yuan, 3.04 yuan, and 3.36 yuan, maintaining a PE ratio of 10, 8, and 8 times for the respective years [8]

Price Trends - The market has experienced a significant downturn, with major commodities like glass, coking coal, polysilicon, silicon iron, and pure soda dropping over 6%[1] - Coking coal and polysilicon have seen price increases of 15.8% and 10.9% respectively since July 18, but these gains have narrowed significantly[2] - Iron ore has even turned negative, with a decrease of 0.4% since July 1[2] Market Sentiment - The recent decline in market sentiment is attributed to changes in macro policy statements, particularly regarding the regulation of low-price competition[1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized a market-oriented approach rather than administrative commands to control prices, indicating a potential pause in recent price hikes[1] Industry Dynamics - Major steel companies in China have announced a halt in molybdenum iron purchases to resist irrational price increases, highlighting intensified competition within the industry[1] - The overall market may be entering a phase of reduced volatility as it awaits fundamental changes before resuming upward trends[3] Futures Market - Many commodities have shifted from a premium to a discount in the futures market, with prices for glass, coking coal, industrial silicon, rebar, and lithium carbonate currently below spot prices by 10.2%, 9.9%, 8.2%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively[2] - The futures market reflects a cautious outlook on short-term price increases, with coking coal and polysilicon's futures premiums narrowing to 14.0% and 5.4%[2]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the equity market, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 experiencing declines of 1.18% and 1.82% respectively, while the bond market is showing signs of recovery [2][4] - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3%, indicating a marginal economic slowdown, which has further pressured market risk appetite and bolstered bond market sentiment [4][5] - Institutional confidence is gradually recovering, with funds returning to the bond market, particularly into balanced and index bond funds, suggesting a potential acceleration of the bond bull market [5][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 42.51 points or 1.18%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4075.59, down 75.65 points or 1.82% [1] - The bond market saw a slight increase in the 7-10 year national development bond index, which rose by 0.12% [1] Market Adjustments - The equity market is undergoing a correction phase, with significant outflows from stock ETFs totaling 25.3 billion yuan since July 24, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment [7] - The afternoon session saw a notable decline in the market following concerns over Nvidia's chip safety issues, which affected risk appetite [6][9] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the bond bull market may be entering an accelerated phase, with a focus on long-duration bonds as institutional investors show renewed interest [5] - The ongoing adjustments in U.S.-China trade relations are expected to influence market expectations, potentially driving funds back to safe-haven assets like bonds [5][6]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - July Manufacturing PMI stands at 49.3%, below the expected 49.7% and previous value of 49.7%[1] - New orders in manufacturing decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, while production fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%[1] - Manufacturing new export orders dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 47.1%, slightly below the first half average of 47.3%[2] Group 2: Price and Demand Dynamics - Raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, while factory prices rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%[3] - Procurement volume declined by 0.7 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating insufficient demand constraints[3] - Finished goods inventory decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 47.4%, reflecting a preference for reducing stock rather than increasing production[3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Trends - Non-manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month[1] - Construction activity index and new orders both fell by 2.2 percentage points, while service sector indices saw minor declines[4] - Employment indices in construction and manufacturing improved by 1.0 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a slight recovery in job markets[4] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Market Implications - Overall economic slowdown in July attributed to adverse weather conditions and previous export surges[5] - The composite PMI for July is at 50.2%, matching levels from April and July of the previous year[6] - Market risk appetite may be affected by the July PMI results, leading to potential volatility in stock markets[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic player in ultrasonic equipment, experiencing a short-term performance inflection point due to strong growth in lithium battery production and rapid adoption of new products [3][25]. - The company has established a comprehensive ultrasonic technology platform, which supports its long-term growth logic by enabling expansion into various high-growth sectors such as solid-state batteries, medical devices, and robotics [4][54]. - The traditional lithium battery sector is recovering, with significant demand for ultrasonic welding equipment, particularly in multi-layer ear welding applications, which are critical for battery performance [63][69]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Domestic Ultrasonic Equipment Leader - The company specializes in ultrasonic equipment, with products including power battery welding equipment, automotive wiring harness welding equipment, and semiconductor ultrasonic devices, serving leading players in each segment [9][12]. - The revenue from the power battery segment has historically been the main driver of growth, with a CAGR of 48% from 2018 to 2022 [25][27]. Section 2: Mastery of Ultrasonic Platform Technology - The company has built a robust ultrasonic technology platform that spans theoretical, technical, and product levels, allowing for continuous innovation and revenue generation [4][54]. - The competitive landscape shows that the company faces high barriers to entry, with competitors primarily being foreign leaders, which enhances its profitability [4][57]. Section 3: Power Battery Sector - The recovery of traditional lithium batteries is evident, with major players like CATL and BYD restarting production, leading to a clear revival in demand for ultrasonic welding equipment [5][69]. - The company expects significant revenue growth from the power battery segment, with projected revenues of 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, supported by a high market share in ear welding applications [72]. Section 4: 3D Packaging as a Key Growth Area - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of advanced packaging technologies, with projected revenues from semiconductor equipment expected to grow significantly [6][54]. - The demand for ultrasonic scanning microscopes is anticipated to increase as traditional inspection methods become less effective in advanced packaging scenarios [6][54]. Section 5: Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts revenues of 7.58 billion, 10.44 billion, and 14.46 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.40 billion, 2.25 billion, and 3.42 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential [7].

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 25H1 净利润超预期，上调盈利预测 公司公告 2025 年中报净利增长 45-50%，超出市场预期。公司净利增加主要由于（1）上半年新生注册机新 客户注册数量增加约 7%，从而导致收入增加约 10%；（2）上半年公司高效的运营及成本控制，使得整体成本 在收入增长的情况下，仍能保持平稳。 分析判断: 我们分析，公司收入增长主要由于 15 个月高价格专业占比提升、职教升学、美业增长超预期带动，利润 为高经营杠杆效应的体现。 投资建议 我们分析，（1）短期来看，我们预计公司秋季招生良好，随着成本控制全年业绩有望持续超预期；（2）中 期来看，在长期生招生恢复的基础上，明后年收入有望加速增长；分品类来看，我们预计烹饪招生恢复、汽车和 美业维持快速增长，欧米奇和美业减亏趋势持续、汽车服务净利率提升；（3）公司长期优势在于就业竞争力、 针对市场变化快速调节课程的能力，公司区域中心建设完成后、技师学院资质获批、从而有望拉长学制。上调盈 利预测，上调 25-27 年营业收入预测 44.1/48.4/53.2 ...