Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide a rating for the bond market industry, but it suggests a cautious and neutral stance towards the bond market in 2025, with a focus on specific investment opportunities such as high - yielding credit bonds [122] Core Viewpoints - The current economic operation is in a neutral range. The US may further lower tariffs on China, and the economy is expected to stabilize. The marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption. However, due to over - capacity, PPI remains under pressure, and with negative real estate investment, the prices of the black series are relatively low. The bond market is unlikely to experience a trend - based bear or bull market in the short term [2][122] Summary by Directory 1. Macro - news - On June 6, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, aiming to address the peak of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit in June and release a signal of medium - term liquidity easing [11] - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.29 trillion, achieving a "five - consecutive increase" but with a narrowing growth rate. The central bank's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces, with continuous increases for 7 months [10][12] - In May, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, indicating weak global economic recovery momentum. Different regions showed varying trends, with Asia in the expansion range and the US, Europe, and Africa facing challenges [12] - On June 3 (Eastern Time), the US President Trump signed an executive order to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50% [14] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of May 31, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 6.1% and 9.7% year - on - year respectively. As of June 6, the seven - day movie box office increased by 140.3% month - on - month and 39.1% year - on - year [16][22] 2.2 Transportation - As of June 1, the weekly container throughput decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, while the CCFI composite index increased by 3.3%. The BDI index increased by 13.3%. However, civil aviation flights, postal express delivery, railway freight, and highway truck traffic all showed declines [30][34][39] 2.3开工率 - As of June 4, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points month - on - month. The operating rates of the petrochemical industry chain, including soda ash, PVC, PX, and PTA, showed an upward trend [53][57] 2.4 Real Estate - As of June 6, the transaction area and volume of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. The transaction area of second - hand housing in 9 sample cities decreased by 13.6% month - on - month, and the listing volume and price of second - hand housing also declined [67][72] 2.5 Prices - Agricultural products were stable, with slight increases in the prices of vegetables and fruits. Industrial products continued to be under pressure, with declines in the prices of steel, iron ore, glass, and energy products such as thermal coal and crude oil [79][87][89] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On June 6, most money market rates and bond yields declined. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 6.0/4.5/3.1/3.8 BP respectively compared to May 29. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB decreased by 62/69 pips respectively [105][113] 4. Institutional Behavior - As of June 8, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies dropped to 1.58%, the lowest level this year. The duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds has been increasing, while that of medium - and long - term credit bond funds has been relatively stable [114][116][117] 5. Investment Recommendations - The bond market is in a volatile state with limited opportunities. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. For the 10 - year treasury bond, when the yield reaches the upper limit of the 1.6% - 1.8% range, extend the duration; when it approaches the lower limit, reduce the duration. Also, pay attention to 5 - year credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. Additionally, it is suggested to focus on Hong Kong stocks in the financial sector, especially the valuation restoration potential of Hong Kong banks [122][123]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that electricity demand in April showed improvement in several provinces, with six provinces experiencing a growth rate exceeding 7%. However, Xinjiang reported negative growth. The overall electricity demand growth rate for April was 4.7%, down from 7.0% in the same month last year, indicating a potential impact from external demand [4][10][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of coal price declines for short-term flexibility in thermal power and suggests mid-term focus on asset integration opportunities within state-owned power groups, as well as investment value in hydropower and wind power operators [4][19]. - Key recommendations include major hydropower companies such as Guotou Electric Power, Huaneng Hydropower, Yangtze Power, and Chuan Investment Energy, along with wind power stocks like Longyuan Power (H), Xintian Green Energy, Datang New Energy, and CGN New Energy. Quality thermal power companies recommended include Wan Energy Power, Shanghai Electric Power, China Resources Power, Huadian International, and Sheneng Co [4][19][20]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand Analysis - In April, electricity demand growth improved in multiple provinces, particularly in Hunan (6.6 percentage points), Hubei (5.3 percentage points), and Anhui (5.1 percentage points). Conversely, provinces like Hainan (-6.9 percentage points), Guangdong (-1.6 percentage points), and Xinjiang (-1.6 percentage points) saw deteriorating growth rates [4][16]. - The report notes that the overall electricity consumption in April reached 772.1 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.68%, while the cumulative growth rate for January to April was 3.08% [14][17]. Sector Performance - The report identifies that the industrial sector contributed significantly to electricity demand, with a growth rate of 3.2% in April. However, several non-key sectors experienced negative growth, potentially due to external demand influences [10][12]. - The report also highlights that the electricity consumption in the information transmission and charging industries has been a positive contributor, while sectors related to photovoltaic equipment production showed negative growth, indicating a less optimistic outlook for new photovoltaic projects [12][13]. Nuclear Fusion Developments - The report discusses the construction of the third heavy water tritium removal facility in Romania, which is expected to position the country as a key player in tritium production and export in Europe. Tritium is identified as a critical fuel for nuclear fusion reactors like ITER [5][21]. - It is noted that the demand for tritium is expected to rise significantly with the completion of various global fusion engineering experimental reactors, with estimates suggesting that ITER alone will consume approximately 12.3 kg of tritium over its operational lifetime [22][24]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that companies with relevant technological reserves in tritium breeding, extraction, and analysis are likely to benefit from increased investments in nuclear fusion projects. Companies such as Guoguang Electric are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [30].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the egg processing industry, particularly highlighting the potential of Oufu Egg Industry as a key player in the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The egg processing industry in China is still in its early stages, with only 5%-7% of eggs being processed compared to 50% in Japan and 33% in the USA, indicating significant growth potential [2][13] - The market for egg products has seen a steady increase, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% from 2011 to 2021, driven by the industrialization of food and the rise of chain restaurants [2][13] - Oufu Egg Industry focuses on the B-end market, providing solutions such as liquid eggs and egg powder to industrial clients, while also expanding into C-end products like egg white beverages [2][19] - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 906 million yuan in 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 5.65% in net profit [24][28] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The egg product market in China is expanding, with liquid eggs being the core growth driver, achieving a CAGR of 12.0% from 2011 to 2021 [13][16] - The demand for high-quality protein products is increasing, with 72.7% of consumers prioritizing protein type over quantity when choosing protein sources [5][8] Company Analysis - Oufu Egg Industry has a robust product line, including various types of liquid and powdered eggs, and is actively developing functional products to meet changing consumer demands [18][19] - The company aims to tap into the functional beverage market with its egg white drink, which offers high protein content with low calories, appealing to health-conscious consumers [22][19] Financial Performance - Oufu Egg Industry's revenue is expected to reach 906 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit of approximately 45.6 million yuan, reflecting a CAGR of 2.19% in revenue and 26.57% in net profit from 2021 to 2024 [24][28] - The overall market capitalization of the North Exchange consumer service sector increased from 123.9 billion yuan to 126.1 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment [30][36]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Forecasts for May 2025: The report predicts 1 trillion yuan in new loans and 2.4 trillion yuan in social financing. By the end of May, M2 is expected to reach 326.2 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.1%; M1 (new caliber) is expected to have a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the social financing growth rate is expected to be 8.8% [2]. - Outlook for the whole year: New loans are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing is expected to expand significantly year - on - year, social financing is expected to increase year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an expected year - end growth rate of around 8.4% [4]. - Bond market investment advice: The bond market is in a volatile state with few opportunities. It is recommended to focus on 5Y credit bonds with a yield of over 2%, and also pay attention to stock, convertible bond investment opportunities, and Hong Kong - listed bank stocks [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content New Loans in May - Overall prediction: It is expected that new loans in May will be 1 trillion yuan, close to the same period last year. Personal loans are expected to increase by 900 million yuan, corporate credit by 8 billion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans by 600 million yuan [4]. - Personal loan breakdown: Short - term personal loans are expected to increase by 100 million yuan, and medium - and long - term personal loans by 800 million yuan [4]. - Corporate loan breakdown: Short - term corporate loans are expected to decrease by 500 million yuan, medium - and long - term corporate loans to increase by 5 billion yuan, and bill financing to increase by 3.5 billion yuan [4]. M1 and M2 Growth Rates in May - M1 growth rate: The new - caliber M1 growth rate is expected to be 1.9%, with a month - on - month increase; the old - caliber M1 growth rate is expected to be + 0.2%, also with a month - on - month increase [4]. - M2 growth rate: The M2 growth rate in May is expected to be 8.1%, with a slight month - on - month increase [4]. Social Financing in May - Social financing increment: It is predicted that the social financing increment in May will be 2.4 trillion yuan (compared with 2.06 trillion yuan in May 2024), with a year - on - year increase mainly from government bond net financing [4]. - Components of social financing: The increment of RMB loans to the real economy is expected to be 89 billion yuan, undiscounted bank acceptance bills to be - 12 billion yuan, corporate bond net financing to be 7 billion yuan, and government bond net financing to be 140 billion yuan [4]. - Social financing growth rate: The social financing growth rate at the end of May is expected to be 8.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month [4].

证券研究报告 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 建筑材料 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 朱芸 SAC：S1350524070001 zhuyun@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 三峡水运新通道带来新需求空间，潜在投资机会或先行 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑材料行业周报（25/06/02-25/06/08） 投资要点： 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，化债力度不及预期，房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 三峡水运新通道带来新需求空间，潜在投资机会或先行。2024 年 6 月 6 日，交 通运输部发布《关于新时代加强沿海和内河港口航道规划建设的意见》，明确提 及优化主干线大通道， ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The Three Gorges Waterway New Channel project has officially started its survey and design bidding, marking the substantial advancement of engineering construction. The total investment for the project is approximately 76.6 billion, with a construction period of about 100 months [6][12] - The overall water conservancy investment continues to show high prosperity. In 2024, national water conservancy construction investment reached 1,352.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, setting a historical high [7][14] - The construction of the new channel and the expansion of the Gezhouba shipping capacity are expected to significantly boost demand for construction, blasting, and high-grade cement materials, benefiting companies with professional capabilities and supply advantages in the region [6][12] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the construction decoration industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [5] Key Investment Points - The Three Gorges Waterway New Channel project, with a total investment of approximately 76.6 billion, is set to enhance the shipping capacity of the Yangtze River and stimulate demand across related industries [6][12] - Water conservancy investment is expected to continue its upward trend, with significant government support and funding for major projects [7][14] Market Performance - The construction decoration index increased by 1.25% during the week, with all sub-sectors except steel structure showing gains. Notable performers included chemical engineering and other specialized engineering sectors [9][25] - The report suggests focusing on structural allocation opportunities within the construction sector, particularly in companies benefiting from regional infrastructure investments and state-owned enterprise reforms [9] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on three main lines: regional construction, state-owned enterprise valuation recovery, and transformation and upgrading opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a national-level "little giant" in supercomputing cloud services, focusing on AI cloud and computing cluster businesses to empower industrial upgrades. It is a leading provider of computing services and operations in China, aiming to deliver secure, user-friendly, and cost-effective supercomputing and intelligent computing services for research and enterprise users [5][9]. - The company is expected to achieve a 115% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, with total revenue projected to reach 655 million yuan, reflecting a 32.07% increase [5][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price is 157.80 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 9,286.25 million yuan and a circulating market value of 6,389.82 million yuan. The company has a total share capital of 58.85 million shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 78.10% [3]. Business Overview - The main business segments include supercomputing cloud services, system integration, software and technical services, and supercomputing conferences. The company primarily acquires computing resources through co-construction and procurement models, serving higher education institutions, research institutes, and enterprises [5][6]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 655 million yuan in 2024 to 1,364 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from 12 million yuan to 48 million yuan over the same period. The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52.4% for the supercomputing cloud service market in China from 2021 to 2025 [8][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.20 yuan in 2024 to 0.82 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to decrease from 770.22 to 193.42 over the same period [8][10]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights the government's focus on computing resource construction and network layout, predicting that the supercomputing cloud service market in China could reach 112 billion yuan by 2025. The continuous investment in research and development (R&D) is expected to drive the growth of supercomputing and intelligent computing technologies [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in domestic container logistics, with a strong synergy between domestic and foreign trade, enhancing its profit resilience. The report highlights the potential for significant upward movement in the domestic shipping market, supported by policy-driven infrastructure investment and increased consumer demand [10][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Zhonggu Logistics, is one of the earliest enterprises in China specializing in domestic container shipping, providing comprehensive logistics services through a multi-modal transport network [15][7]. As of December 31, 2024, the company operates 111 vessels with a total capacity of 213,000 TEU, ranking second nationally in container fleet size [18][7]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth from container logistics services, with expected revenues of 12,031 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 6.86% [9]. The projected net profit for 2025 is 1,984 million RMB, with a growth rate of 8.08% [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The domestic container shipping market is currently at a historical low, with significant potential for recovery. The report notes that demand for shipping services is expected to rise due to increased infrastructure investment and consumer spending [10][6]. The foreign trade leasing market is also anticipated to remain robust, particularly in the Asian regional market, driven by trade agreements and shifts in supply chains [10][6]. Profitability and Dividend Policy - The company exhibits strong cash flow and a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend rate reaching 90.39% in 2024, amounting to 1,659 million RMB [48][57]. The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain profitability even during periods of market pressure, showcasing its operational flexibility [10][6]. Investment Outlook - The report projects that the company's net profit will continue to grow steadily, with estimates of 1,984 million RMB for 2025, 2,098 million RMB for 2026, and 2,202 million RMB for 2027, indicating a stable growth trajectory [8][6]. The anticipated price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 10.37, 9.81, and 9.35, respectively, suggesting attractive valuation levels [8][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [6][7] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices continuing to oscillate while silver has recently reached a new high. Over the past two weeks, the London spot gold price decreased by 0.08% to $3,339.90 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold price increased by 0.40% to ¥783.24 per gram. The London spot silver price rose by 9.34% to $36.19 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver price increased by 7.10% to ¥8,850 per kilogram [6][11] - Key factors influencing the market include the escalation of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, the lack of substantial outcomes from the second round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data. The recent surge in silver prices to a 13-year high is attributed to these factors [6][7] - Looking ahead, the "Trump 2.0" narrative and the expectation of interest rate cuts are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices. The upcoming U.S. economic data from May to July will be crucial for market direction [6][7] Price Trends - Recent price movements show that the London spot gold price fell by 0.08% to $3,339.90 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold price rose by 0.40% to ¥783.24 per gram. The London spot silver price increased by 9.34% to $36.19 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver price rose by 7.10% to ¥8,850 per kilogram [11][12] - The holding volume for Shanghai gold decreased by 7.56% to 421,700 contracts, while the holding volume for Shanghai silver increased by 13.29% to 1,039,500 contracts [11][12] U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [6][7][25] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% in June, with a potential for rate cuts in September [6][7] Holdings and Trading Volume - The report highlights the changes in holdings and trading volumes for both gold and silver, indicating a significant increase in silver holdings while gold holdings have decreased [46][52] Internal and External Price Differences - The internal and external price differences for gold and silver have shown an increase, with the gold internal-external price difference rising to ¥13.82 per gram and the silver internal-external price difference to ¥504.44 per kilogram [63]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Sichuan Chengyu (601107.SH) based on its strategic advantages and high dividend potential [6][9]. Core Views - Sichuan Chengyu, as a subsidiary of Shudao Group, focuses on transportation infrastructure investment, operation, construction, and management, along with green energy investment and resource development [8][19]. - The company aims to enhance its road network scale and operational efficiency, projecting steady revenue growth, with expected revenues of 10.36 billion yuan in 2024 and a net profit of 1.46 billion yuan [8][11]. - The "Big Group + Small Company" strategy is expected to drive resource integration and operational efficiency, enhancing shareholder returns through a commitment to a minimum cash dividend payout ratio of 60% of net profit from 2023 to 2025 [8][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the closing price is 6.39 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19.54 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.62% [4][7]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.56 billion, 1.69 billion, and 1.88 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.6, 11.6, and 10.4 [9][11]. - The company is compared with peers like Ninghu Expressway, Shenzhen Expressway, and Guangdong Expressway A, indicating a strong position in the western highway operation sector [9][11]. Business Structure - The core business includes highway bridge management and maintenance, contributing 46.10% to revenue in 2024, while construction services and sales from service areas account for 26.09% and 23.91% respectively [20][23]. - The company operates approximately 900 kilometers of highways, with ongoing projects adding another 136.1 kilometers, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.91% in operational mileage from 2009 to 2024 [41][42]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue is expected to grow due to increased traffic and operational efficiency, with a projected revenue of 11.22 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8.28% year-on-year growth [7][10]. - The average remaining toll collection period for the company's assets is 11.13 years, providing ample time for traffic growth and revenue realization [47]. Shareholder Returns - Sichuan Chengyu has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, having distributed over 5.9 billion yuan in cash dividends since its listing, with a planned minimum cash dividend payout ratio of 60% for the years 2023-2025 [37][38].