天合光能（688599.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 80,282 | 77,720 | 88,905 | 101,161 | | 增长率（%） | -29.2 | -3.2 | 14.4 | 13.8 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | -3,443 | 998 | 1,956 | 2,905 | | 增长率（%） | -162.3 | 129.0 | 95.9 | 48.5 | | 每股收益（元） | -1.58 | 0.46 | 0.90 | 1.33 | | PE | / | 29 | 15 | 10 | | PB | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | ➢ 多业务齐头并进，打造综合能源整体解决方案服务商。储能：公司储能产品 销售遍及全球，累计出货超过 10GWh，参与多个国内外大项目。支架：24 年公 司支架实现出货 7.3GW，其中跟踪支架维持增长态势，在欧洲、拉美和中东等重 点区域出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The development of AI Agents is driving a transformation in software forms, establishing databases as indispensable in the AI era, serving not only as data carriers but also helping to mitigate issues like hallucinations in large model reasoning [5][42] - AI is empowering databases to upgrade themselves, enhancing operational efficiency and driving industry growth [4][31] Summary by Sections DB for AI: AI Agents Driving Software Transformation - AI Agents are expected to interact directly with databases, potentially replacing the intermediary application layer in traditional software architectures [1][11] - Databases play a crucial role in the AI era by ensuring high-quality data for AI training, which is essential for effective AI model performance [2][14] - Technologies like vector databases and RAG (Retrieval-Augmented Generation) are directly empowering AI development, addressing issues such as hallucinations in large model reasoning [2][16] AI for DB: AI Empowering Database Upgrades - Intelligent operations are being implemented, allowing for real-time monitoring, predictive analysis, and automated processing of database systems [4][31] - The use of natural language processing enables users to interact with databases more easily, converting natural language into SQL queries [4][35] - Autonomous databases are emerging, utilizing machine learning to perform tasks traditionally handled by database administrators, such as optimization and maintenance [4][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Dameng Data, Taiji Co., Haima Data, Softcom Power, Creative Information, Star Ring Technology, SuperMap Software, and Toris [5][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a strong product cycle in the new energy sector, with significant growth in sales and a clear strategy for global expansion [2][4]. - The company aims to achieve a total sales target of 3 million vehicles by 2025, with 1 million of those being new energy vehicles [2]. - The report highlights the acceleration of the company's transformation towards electric and intelligent vehicles, supported by partnerships with Huawei [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April, the company's wholesale sales were 191,000 vehicles, down 9.3% year-on-year and down 28.9% month-on-month. Cumulative sales from January to April reached 896,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company's self-owned passenger vehicle sales in April were 109,000 units, down 11.1% year-on-year and down 33.9% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for the first four months were 562,000 units, up 0.3% year-on-year [1]. New Energy Vehicle Growth - The company saw a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, with April sales reaching 62,000 units, up 19.8% year-on-year, although down 28.9% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for the first four months were 256,000 units, up 41.9% year-on-year [2]. - The deep blue brand sold 20,000 units in April, up 58.0% year-on-year, while the Avita brand sold 11,681 units, up 122.6% year-on-year [2][3]. Global Expansion Strategy - The company's overseas sales in April were 42,000 units, up 34.0% year-on-year, with cumulative sales for the first four months reaching 202,000 units, up 43.7% year-on-year [4]. - The company plans to establish 8 new operating entities and 16 logistics nodes overseas by 2025, aiming to enhance its global market presence [4]. Financial Forecast - The report projects revenues of 189.6 billion, 209.5 billion, and 233.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 8.9 billion, 10.8 billion, and 12.7 billion yuan for the same years [5][21]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.89, 1.09, and 1.28 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 11, and 10 [5][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a strong product cycle in the new energy sector, with significant growth in sales of its new energy vehicles [2][3]. - The company aims to achieve a total sales target of 3 million vehicles by 2025, with 1 million of those being new energy vehicles [2]. - The company is accelerating its transformation towards electric vehicles, supported by partnerships with Huawei for smart driving technology [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Performance - In April, the company's wholesale sales were 191,000 vehicles, down 9.3% year-on-year and down 28.9% month-on-month. Cumulative sales from January to April reached 896,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year [1]. - The wholesale sales of the company's self-owned passenger vehicles in April were 109,000 units, down 11.1% year-on-year and down 33.9% month-on-month [1]. New Energy Vehicle Growth - The wholesale sales of self-owned new energy vehicles in April were 62,000 units, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year, but down 28.9% month-on-month. Cumulative sales from January to April reached 256,000 units, up 41.9% year-on-year [2]. - The deep blue brand sold 20,000 units in April, up 58.0% year-on-year, while the Avita brand sold 11,681 units, up 122.6% year-on-year [2][3]. Global Expansion - The company's overseas sales in April reached 42,000 units, an increase of 34.0% year-on-year, with cumulative sales from January to April at 202,000 units, up 43.7% year-on-year [4]. - The company plans to establish 8 new operating entities and 16 logistics nodes overseas by 2025, aiming for a total global sales target of 500,000 units [4]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 189.6 billion, 209.5 billion, and 233.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 8.9 billion, 10.8 billion, and 12.7 billion yuan for the same years [5][21]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.89, 1.09, and 1.28 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 11, and 10 [5][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][5]. Core Insights - Industrial metals are experiencing a rebound in prices due to ongoing inventory depletion, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices showing increases of +1.11%, +0.83%, +0.57%, +1.28%, +0.35%, and +1.79% respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors, including concerns over economic slowdown and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, which have led to increased market volatility [2]. - Key recommendations include companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Huayou Cobalt, among others, indicating strong potential for investment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes a significant decrease in inventory levels for copper, with SMM social inventory dropping below 130,000 tons, indicating a tight supply situation [2][38]. - Aluminum production is recovering due to domestic restarts and new projects, with a notable inventory reduction of 71,000 tons driven by pre-holiday stocking [2][21]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing tightness in the cobalt market due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to lead to price increases [3][54]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have recently declined due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid optimistic trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, while silver prices have shown resilience due to its industrial applications [3][66]. - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in gold prices driven by de-dollarization and ongoing geopolitical tensions, despite short-term fluctuations [3][66]. Key Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with Zijin Mining projected to have an EPS of 1.21 yuan in 2024, and a PE ratio of 14 times [4]. - Other companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum are also highlighted for their strong earnings potential and favorable market conditions [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Jinli Permanent Magnet" as a key investment opportunity in the humanoid robot materials sector, while also suggesting to pay attention to "Zhenghai Magnetic Materials," "Ningbo Yunsheng," "InnoLux," and "Instech" [3]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is driven by diverse functional demands, necessitating advanced motor designs, particularly in joint servo motors, which are crucial for movement capabilities [1][9]. - Magnetic components are identified as critical parts of servo motors, with the design and adaptation of these components creating significant barriers to entry in the market [2][38]. - The development of rare earth permanent magnet materials is pivotal for the humanoid robot sector, marking a new era in material design for magnetic components [3][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Joint Servo Motors: Core of Humanoid Robot Movement - Electric motors serve as the primary power source for humanoid robots, with unique functional requirements such as high torque density, dynamic response, lightweight, and low noise [1][9]. - Different joint configurations require tailored motor designs, indicating substantial room for improvement in current humanoid robot joint structures [1][20]. 2. Magnetic Components: Key Parts of Servo Motors - Magnetic components are part of the deep processing of rare earth permanent magnet materials, with complex production processes affecting motor performance [2][38]. - The performance of permanent magnet materials is critical, with specific grades determining customization capabilities for manufacturers [2][50]. - Future designs must align magnetic components with motor structures to optimize performance, creating competitive advantages for companies in the humanoid robot field [2][38]. 3. Investment Recommendations and Key Targets - The report emphasizes the importance of rare earth permanent magnet materials in humanoid robots, recommending "Jinli Permanent Magnet" and highlighting other companies like "Zhenghai Magnetic Materials" and "Ningbo Yunsheng" as potential investment opportunities [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high revenue of 46.858 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 165.31% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 48% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 463 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52.78%, while the non-recurring net profit was 427 million yuan, up 80.76% year-on-year [1]. - The company's inventory reached 45.9 billion yuan, a 13% increase quarter-on-quarter, and contract liabilities grew to 16.2 billion yuan, up 43% quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong demand for computing power [1]. - The company continues to demonstrate good cost control, with sales, management, and R&D expenses changing by -3%, +19%, and +4% respectively, despite significant revenue growth [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 34.5%, down 4.63 percentage points year-on-year, impacted by uncertainties in the Sino-US trade environment and fluctuations in raw material prices [2]. - The company maintains a leading position in the liquid cooling server market, with a market share of 35.5% in sales and 34.2% in shipment volume for its flagship product [2]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 2.916 billion yuan, 3.806 billion yuan, and 4.706 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 20, and 16 times [3]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth in AI computing investments, indicating potential for valuation improvement [3].

资产配置月报 202505 五月配置视点：黄金见顶了吗？ 2025 年 05 月 05 日 ➢ 黄金见顶了吗？ 美国经济在关税政策影响下一季度增速转负，结构上韧性减弱，市场对于美国经 济衰退的预期上升；美国就业市场温和降温，对黄金有正面影响但较弱；美国财 政方面近期虽然增速有所放缓，但是主要由国防支出减少导致，非国防消费支出 和投资依旧维持增长，财政长期扩张趋势未完全扭转，依旧支撑黄金表现；技术 层面黄金过去积累对应的上涨空间已基本兑现，未来价格继续上行需要进一步积 累或者有新增增量资金入场，短期或较为疲软。综合来说，黄金短期或阶段性休 整，但是长期上涨逻辑不变（或由单一财政逻辑转向叠加经济衰退的逻辑）。 ➢ 大类资产量化观点 1. 权益：Q1 财报景气度回升，五月积极应对。景气度 4 月整体走平，金融中 银行、非银景气度都进一步下降，工业景气度有所回升；上市公司 2024 年年报 以及 2025 年一季报反映了积极变化。信用或继续稳步扩张，政府债券仍占主导； 从结构来看，高增主要来源于去年同期的低基数，政府债券继续支撑社融增长。 4 月市场如我们预期先下后上，目前市场遇强支撑，5 月静待成交放量。 2. 利 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The report suggests that gold prices have experienced a significant adjustment since April 22, 2025, with a cumulative decline of 5.35% by May 2, 2025, following a substantial increase of over 200% since early 2024 [1][9] - The U.S. economy's growth rate has turned negative in Q1 2025, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.3%, which is below market expectations and marks the first negative growth since Q1 2022 [12][19] - The report indicates that the U.S. employment market is showing signs of mild cooling, with April 2025 non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, down from 185,000 in March [20][24] - U.S. fiscal spending has slowed down, primarily due to a reduction in defense spending, with government consumption and investment growth at 0.8% in Q1 2025 [25][26] - The technical analysis of gold suggests that the price has reached its target levels, and further upward movement will require either a new accumulation phase or significant new capital inflows [31][36] Group 2: Macro Asset Quantitative Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the earnings outlook for equities in Q1 2025, with a stable credit environment and government bonds continuing to dominate [2][8] - It predicts a potential decline of 9 basis points in the 10-year government bond yield to 1.53% in May 2025, driven by falling economic growth and inflation factors [2][15] - The real estate sector is experiencing a rebound in industry pressure, with an index reading of 0.500, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [2][20] Group 3: Style and Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high win-rate and high-odds sectors such as electric equipment and new energy, computing, non-ferrous metals, machinery, electronics, and steel, which have shown an absolute return of 12.05% since 2024 [4][29] - It also suggests a "clearing reversal strategy" for sectors that are at the end of a clearing phase, with rising demand and improved competitive dynamics, specifically recommending non-ferrous metals [4][31]

Group 1: Asset Performance Post Tariff Implementation - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, 2025, global risk assets have shown a "V"-shaped recovery, with U.S. and European stock markets outperforming Chinese equity assets and demand-side commodities[1] - As of May 2, 2025, U.S. stock indices (e.g., NASDAQ, S&P 500) have recovered above their April 2 closing prices, while Chinese assets (e.g., Hang Seng Index, CSI 800) and commodities like copper and oil remain below their April 2 levels[1] - The disparity in asset performance is attributed to different driving factors and recovery rhythms, with demand-related commodities reflecting weaker demand expectations[1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - Recent positive non-farm payroll data has alleviated immediate recession concerns, but potential market volatility remains due to ongoing trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[2] - The U.S. economy's first-quarter GDP growth was reported at -0.30%, slightly below expectations, while April's ADP employment growth was only 62,000, compared to the expected 115,000[2] - Structural issues in the U.S. labor market show that manufacturing sector job growth has been negative since October 2023, indicating a shift towards service-oriented job creation[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Adjustments - The April PMI data indicates that the impact of tariffs on China's exports is becoming evident, with new export orders declining significantly[3] - Recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have begun to show signs of engagement, suggesting that policy responses may become clearer as talks progress[3] - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly on May 2, 2025, indicating a positive correlation between Chinese equity assets and the currency, suggesting a potential market revaluation[3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Chinese assets are considered to have better value compared to other markets, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as consumer goods and services[4] - The report recommends investing in resource products (copper, aluminum, gold) and capital goods (engineering machinery, steel) as global economic conditions evolve[4] - Financial sectors with low valuations (banks, insurance) are also highlighted as potential safe havens against external shocks[4]