资产配置月报 202505 五月配置视点：黄金见顶了吗？ 2025 年 05 月 05 日 ➢ 黄金见顶了吗？ 美国经济在关税政策影响下一季度增速转负，结构上韧性减弱，市场对于美国经 济衰退的预期上升；美国就业市场温和降温，对黄金有正面影响但较弱；美国财 政方面近期虽然增速有所放缓，但是主要由国防支出减少导致，非国防消费支出 和投资依旧维持增长，财政长期扩张趋势未完全扭转，依旧支撑黄金表现；技术 层面黄金过去积累对应的上涨空间已基本兑现，未来价格继续上行需要进一步积 累或者有新增增量资金入场，短期或较为疲软。综合来说，黄金短期或阶段性休 整，但是长期上涨逻辑不变（或由单一财政逻辑转向叠加经济衰退的逻辑）。 ➢ 大类资产量化观点 1. 权益：Q1 财报景气度回升，五月积极应对。景气度 4 月整体走平，金融中 银行、非银景气度都进一步下降，工业景气度有所回升；上市公司 2024 年年报 以及 2025 年一季报反映了积极变化。信用或继续稳步扩张，政府债券仍占主导； 从结构来看，高增主要来源于去年同期的低基数，政府债券继续支撑社融增长。 4 月市场如我们预期先下后上，目前市场遇强支撑，5 月静待成交放量。 2. 利 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The report suggests that gold prices have experienced a significant adjustment since April 22, 2025, with a cumulative decline of 5.35% by May 2, 2025, following a substantial increase of over 200% since early 2024 [1][9] - The U.S. economy's growth rate has turned negative in Q1 2025, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.3%, which is below market expectations and marks the first negative growth since Q1 2022 [12][19] - The report indicates that the U.S. employment market is showing signs of mild cooling, with April 2025 non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, down from 185,000 in March [20][24] - U.S. fiscal spending has slowed down, primarily due to a reduction in defense spending, with government consumption and investment growth at 0.8% in Q1 2025 [25][26] - The technical analysis of gold suggests that the price has reached its target levels, and further upward movement will require either a new accumulation phase or significant new capital inflows [31][36] Group 2: Macro Asset Quantitative Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the earnings outlook for equities in Q1 2025, with a stable credit environment and government bonds continuing to dominate [2][8] - It predicts a potential decline of 9 basis points in the 10-year government bond yield to 1.53% in May 2025, driven by falling economic growth and inflation factors [2][15] - The real estate sector is experiencing a rebound in industry pressure, with an index reading of 0.500, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [2][20] Group 3: Style and Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high win-rate and high-odds sectors such as electric equipment and new energy, computing, non-ferrous metals, machinery, electronics, and steel, which have shown an absolute return of 12.05% since 2024 [4][29] - It also suggests a "clearing reversal strategy" for sectors that are at the end of a clearing phase, with rising demand and improved competitive dynamics, specifically recommending non-ferrous metals [4][31]

Group 1: Asset Performance Post Tariff Implementation - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, 2025, global risk assets have shown a "V"-shaped recovery, with U.S. and European stock markets outperforming Chinese equity assets and demand-side commodities[1] - As of May 2, 2025, U.S. stock indices (e.g., NASDAQ, S&P 500) have recovered above their April 2 closing prices, while Chinese assets (e.g., Hang Seng Index, CSI 800) and commodities like copper and oil remain below their April 2 levels[1] - The disparity in asset performance is attributed to different driving factors and recovery rhythms, with demand-related commodities reflecting weaker demand expectations[1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - Recent positive non-farm payroll data has alleviated immediate recession concerns, but potential market volatility remains due to ongoing trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[2] - The U.S. economy's first-quarter GDP growth was reported at -0.30%, slightly below expectations, while April's ADP employment growth was only 62,000, compared to the expected 115,000[2] - Structural issues in the U.S. labor market show that manufacturing sector job growth has been negative since October 2023, indicating a shift towards service-oriented job creation[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Adjustments - The April PMI data indicates that the impact of tariffs on China's exports is becoming evident, with new export orders declining significantly[3] - Recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have begun to show signs of engagement, suggesting that policy responses may become clearer as talks progress[3] - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly on May 2, 2025, indicating a positive correlation between Chinese equity assets and the currency, suggesting a potential market revaluation[3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Chinese assets are considered to have better value compared to other markets, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as consumer goods and services[4] - The report recommends investing in resource products (copper, aluminum, gold) and capital goods (engineering machinery, steel) as global economic conditions evolve[4] - Financial sectors with low valuations (banks, insurance) are also highlighted as potential safe havens against external shocks[4]

Consumption Trends - The extended May Day holiday this year has led to a significant release of consumer spending, comparable to the long National Day holiday, with increased passenger volume and per capita spending[1] - Domestic travel during the May Day holiday averaged 5.2 days, an increase of approximately 15% year-on-year, indicating a rise in demand for in-depth and long-distance travel[2] - The entry of foreign tourists has been boosted by policies such as visa-free transit and "buy now, return later," with inbound travel orders increasing by 173% year-on-year during the holiday[2] Travel and Transportation Data - All modes of transportation (rail, road, water, and air) saw increased passenger volumes compared to 2024, with daily cross-regional movement comparable to peak travel periods like National Day and Spring Festival[2] - The number of international flights increased by 20.1% year-on-year in the first four days of the holiday, with significant growth in flights to Vietnam (62.9%) and Japan (58.5%)[3] Entertainment and Real Estate Insights - Movie box office revenue saw a decline, with total earnings dropping by 48.6% year-on-year during the first four days of the holiday, and average ticket prices falling to 349.8 yuan per show, down from 561.6 yuan last year[3] - Real estate sales showed signs of recovery, with new home sales in 30 cities rebounding to levels above the previous year, while second-hand home sales continued to exhibit high year-on-year growth[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include incomplete data statistics, unexpected policy changes, and fluctuations in the domestic economic landscape that could impact future trends[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a wholesale sales volume of 380,000 new energy vehicles in April, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1][2]. - Cumulative sales from January to April reached 1.359 million units, up 45.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s export sales reached a record high of 79,000 units in April, with steady growth in overseas markets such as Turkey, Brazil, and Europe [2]. - The launch of the intelligent driving version of the Dynasty Ocean series is expected to accelerate the adoption of advanced driving assistance systems [3]. - 2025 is projected to be a significant year for high-end products, with the launch of the Tengshi N9 and flagship models equipped with advanced driving systems [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1,014.12 billion, 1,237.23 billion, and 1,477.25 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 58.15 billion, 67.12 billion, and 74.19 billion yuan [4][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 19.13 yuan in 2025, increasing to 24.41 yuan by 2027 [5][4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.775 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 324 million yuan, a decrease of 15.39% [1][4] - The growth in revenue is primarily attributed to the increase in the installed capacity of self-owned power plants, leading to higher electricity generation and revenue [1] - The company has expanded its self-owned power plant capacity to 6.45 GW by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20% [2] - The company is accelerating its overseas project development, with over 2.4 GW of overseas project reserves by the end of 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.775 billion yuan, with a net profit of 324 million yuan, reflecting a decline in profitability due to increased curtailment rates in the photovoltaic industry [1][4] - The company expects revenues of 6.446 billion yuan, 6.767 billion yuan, and 7.055 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 459 million yuan, 572 million yuan, and 688 million yuan [4][10] Operational Highlights - The self-owned power plant generation reached 6.45 GW by the end of 2024, with a total generation of 6.714 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 27% [2] - The company has diversified its project development strategies, including flexible transformation of thermal power and bundled development of wind, fire, and solar energy [2] Future Outlook - The company is projected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, with expected revenue growth rates of 35% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 [4][10] - The report highlights the potential for the company's energy storage business to ramp up, with a total of 298 MWh of independent energy storage capacity by the end of 2024 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a wholesale sales volume of 380,000 new energy vehicles in April, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1][2]. - The cumulative sales from January to April reached 1.359 million units, up 45.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s export sales in April reached 79,000 units, setting a new record, with steady growth in overseas demand, particularly in Turkey, Brazil, and Europe [2][3]. - The launch of the intelligent driving version of the Dynasty Ocean series is expected to accelerate the democratization of intelligent driving technology [3]. - 2025 is projected to be a significant year for high-end products, with the launch of the Tengshi N9 and flagship models featuring advanced intelligent driving systems [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1,014.12 billion, 1,237.23 billion, and 1,477.25 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 58.15 billion, 67.12 billion, and 74.19 billion yuan [4][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 19.13, 22.09, and 24.41 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates price resilience in a declining industry price environment, with a focus on enhancing investor returns through increased dividend payouts [4]. - The company is expected to recover its international and regional capacity to over 90% of 2019 levels by 2025, which is anticipated to elevate overall pricing levels [2]. - The replacement of old aircraft with new models is expected to maintain operational efficiency and reduce financial costs through the transition from leased to owned aircraft [3]. - The company has increased its dividend payout to 800 million yuan, reflecting a payout ratio of 35%, which is an increase from the previous year's 32% [4]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.53 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 11.3% [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit of 2.27 billion yuan, up 0.7% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 5.32 billion yuan, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 16.4% to 680 million yuan [1]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 5.0%, 7.3%, and 9.8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 2.53 billion yuan, with earnings per share expected to be 2.59 yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 0.83, 0.90, and 0.93 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times based on the closing price on April 30 [4][6]. Core Views - The company has diversified its energy portfolio, including coal, gas, oil, nuclear, and renewable energy sources, which supports its performance. The total power generation in 2024 reached 491.24 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.84% [2][3]. - The company is actively developing large-scale projects, including a significant wind and solar project in Xinjiang and a 600,000 kW offshore wind project in Hainan, which are expected to contribute to future growth [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 29,619 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3,944 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.04% [5][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 73.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.11 billion yuan, down 12.82% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 72.47 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.64 billion yuan, down 30.54% year-on-year [1][2]. - The forecast for 2025 estimates total revenue of 30,310 million yuan, with a growth rate of 2.3%, and a net profit of 4,067 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 3.1% [5][8]. Operational Highlights - The company’s installed capacity reached 17,955 MW by the end of 2024, an increase of 5.95% year-on-year. The breakdown of power generation includes coal power at 405.72 billion kWh, gas power at 22.04 billion kWh, wind power at 54.17 billion kWh, and solar power at 31.35 billion kWh, with solar power showing a significant growth of 26.55% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average on-grid electricity price in 2024 was 479.29 yuan/MWh, with a slight decrease in Q1 2025 to 0.501 yuan/kWh [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 40.67 billion yuan in 2025, 44.03 billion yuan in 2026, and 45.60 billion yuan in 2027 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.63 CNY [5][12]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by rising prices, with expectations for the Sha Ling gold mine to commence production in 2025 [2][3]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 65.56 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.39 billion CNY, up 13.71% year-on-year [1][4]. - The average gold price in 2024 was 2,382 USD/ounce, reflecting a 22.6% increase year-on-year, while the average copper price was 74,000 CNY/ton, up 8.47% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 195.11 billion CNY, a 24.21% year-on-year increase, while the net profit was 7.43 billion CNY, down 17.98% year-on-year [1][2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 148.59 billion CNY, a 12.88% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 10.38 billion CNY, up 32.65% year-on-year [1][2]. Production and Pricing - The company produced 18.35 tons of mined gold and 37.95 tons of refined gold in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% and 7.1% respectively [2]. - The production target for 2025 is set at 18.17 tons of mined gold and 35.30 tons of refined gold [2]. Key Projects - The Sha Ling gold mine, with an average grade of 2.77 g/t, is expected to significantly enhance the company's gold production once operational [3][4]. - The company is also advancing its deep resource mining project in Inner Mongolia, which has completed its first phase and is now in production [3]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 5.51 billion CNY, 6.92 billion CNY, and 8.26 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 10, and 8 [4][3].