Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see strong demand during the summer peak season, with a recommendation to focus on pre-peak investment opportunities. The industry has gradually emerged from the low-demand season since March, with rational pricing strategies from airlines supporting demand [3][12]. - In 2024, the total revenue of six listed airlines is projected to reach 521.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a tax pre-profit of 3 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 9 billion yuan in 2023. Different airlines show varying degrees of profit improvement [10][12]. - The report highlights that the international oil price decline will significantly enhance airline profits. A 5% drop in Brent crude oil prices could increase the pre-tax profits of major airlines by 29 billion yuan for Air China and 23 billion yuan for Eastern Airlines [14][15]. Group 2: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is anticipated to maintain strong growth resilience, with business volumes expected to increase by 21.5% in 2024 and 21.6% in Q1 2025. The total business volume for 2024 is projected to reach 1.758 billion pieces [32][35]. - The market concentration in the express delivery industry is on the rise, with the CR8 index expected to reach 85.2% in 2024 and 86.9% in Q1 2025, indicating a more consolidated market [32][35]. - Revenue for the express delivery industry is forecasted to grow by 13.8% in 2024, reaching 1.4 trillion yuan, with a slight pressure on average ticket prices, which are expected to decline by 14.2% [35][36]. Group 3: Dividend and Asset Value - The report emphasizes the value of dividend assets in the transportation sector, with cash dividend ratios for highways, railways, and ports projected at 51%, 47%, and 36% respectively for 2024, indicating strong cash flow stability [44][45]. - The TTM dividend yields for these sectors are expected to be 3.0% for highways, 3.3% for railways, and 2.3% for ports, reflecting a stable increase compared to previous years [44][45]. Group 4: Shipping Sector - The shipping sector faces short-term pressure due to US-China tariff disputes, but structural opportunities may arise. The report suggests that the tariff situation could lead to a shift in import demands, particularly for agricultural products, which may benefit dry bulk shipping [48][56]. - Historical data indicates that previous trade disputes have led to increased shipping rates for certain routes, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the current context [48][56].

Funding and Policy Overview - The recent pause in the "National Subsidy" ("国补") program was due to the rapid consumption of subsidy funds, which outpaced the issuance of special government bonds[1] - A total of 1,380 billion yuan in central funds will be distributed in batches during the third and fourth quarters, focusing on the implementation of existing funds rather than increasing the 3,000 billion yuan quota[1][4] - As of the end of May, approximately 1,620 billion yuan of the subsidy funds had been allocated, with over half of the expected funds consumed in the first five months[2][3] Impact on Consumer Spending - The "trade-in" subsidy program has significantly boosted retail sales, with May's total retail sales exceeding the trend value by approximately 2.8 percentage points[5] - The year-on-year growth rate for "trade-in" categories in May reached 16.6%, compared to an overall retail sales growth of 8.2%[5][6] - However, due to the rapid consumption of subsidy funds, the growth rate of retail sales may experience downward fluctuations in the coming months[5] Future Considerations - The "trade-in" policy needs to be strengthened in terms of quantity to prevent a decline in consumer momentum, as non-"trade-in" categories only saw a year-on-year growth of 1.6% in May[6] - There is a need for further improvement in policy mechanisms to reduce unfair competition caused by differences in subsidy standards and regional disparities[6] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, and fluctuations in exports[6]

基本面选股组合月报 AEG 估值组合 5 月实现 4.66%超额收益 2025 年 06 月 19 日 ➢ 5 月基本面量化选股组合总体超额稳健。5 月，AEG 估值潜力组合和竞争优 势分别以 7.05%和 4.47%的回报率显著超越其基准指数，实现了 4.66%和 2.92% 的超额回报。统计各策略在股票型公募基金中的相对排名，5 月各策略表现基本 均位于中位数以上。 ➢ 竞争优势组合表现跟踪：5 月回报 4.47%，相对于中证 800 超额收益 2.92%，本年绝对收益 5.98%。策略介绍：竞争壁垒分析框架区分为四类行业： 壁垒护盾型、竞争激烈型、稳中求进型和寻求突破型。全区间表现：竞争优势组 合自 2012 年以来年化收益 17.04%，夏普比率 0.66，信息比率 0.12，最大回撤 -47.68%，卡玛比率 0.36。 ➢ 安全边际组合表现跟踪：5 月回报 3.79%，相对于 wind 全 A 超额收益 1.40%，本年绝对收益 2.06%。策略介绍：竞争优势的核心在于塑造企业的进入 壁垒（即"护城河"）。全区间表现：安全边际组合自2012年以来年化收益22.73%， 夏普比率 1.02，信息比率 ...

商贸零售行业2025年度中期投资策略 维稳、谋变，重视新消费 解慧新 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2025年6月19日 * 1 01 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 目录 02 医美 03 黄金珠宝 00 零售行业总览 04 商超百货 05 零售板块投资建议 06 风险提示 01 美妆 C O N T E N T S 零售行业总览——细分板块逻辑梳理 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2 • 美护：25年1-5月，美容护理板块整体表现强劲。美护赛道悦己属性强，对消费者新需求变化敏感度高，逐步成为新消费的主力赛道。25年下半 年重点聚焦三条投资主线：①产品势能强劲、数据高增；②经营情况改善；③龙头大而全的企业。推荐巨子生物、毛戈平、上美股份、珀莱雅、 丸美生物、润本股份。 • 医美：胶原蛋白赛道景气度高且成长性强；行业需求整体承压情况下对渠道管理能力以及医美产品的运营能力提出更高要求，产品管线的持续扩 充以及平台化运营能力对新一轮投资周期至关重要；建议关注新材料以及新产品管线催化，推荐锦波生物、爱美客。 • 黄金珠宝：近年来，消费者对"非必要支出"更加谨慎，黄金因其卓 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The narrative of a weakening dollar has become a common preference among risk-averse investors since Trump's administration, as significant depreciation of the dollar often leads to revaluation of non-dollar assets[1] - The macroeconomic narrative is a key driver of market direction, with the potential loss of reserve currency status being a significant concern, particularly due to the large debt burden of the U.S.[2] - Historical transitions of reserve currencies have presented substantial asset revaluation opportunities, with past examples showing significant depreciation of the current reserve currency relative to successors and precious metals[2] Group 2: U.S. Debt Analysis - The U.S. government debt burden has increased by 14.6% from 2019 to 2023, while household leverage has decreased by 3.1% and non-financial corporate leverage has decreased by 8.6%[3] - The U.S. government debt level was over 100% before the global pandemic, but concerns were minimal; post-pandemic, the debt has risen significantly, reflecting a societal "leverage transfer"[3] - The pressure from maturing U.S. government bonds is expected to peak in Q1 2027, with an estimated maturity amount of $9 to $10 trillion, compounded by a potential fiscal deficit stabilizing above 5%[5] Group 3: Future Projections - The next two years are critical for the U.S. debt cycle transition, influencing fiscal, monetary policies, and the dollar index[6] - Historical patterns indicate that the current dollar depreciation cycle may last until the end of 2027, with a potential initial rapid depreciation followed by a prolonged period of volatility[7] - Risks include extreme U.S. trade policies leading to faster and larger-than-expected dollar depreciation, which could exacerbate global economic slowdowns[7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift from inventory reduction to capacity reduction, particularly in the liquor sector, with a focus on new products and channels for mass-market products [1][12][26] - The overall effective demand remains insufficient, with consumption structure adjustments driven by "emotional premium" and "new channel transformation" [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of new retail channels, such as instant retail, which are reshaping the value chain for brand owners, distributors, and retailers, with efficiency being a key factor [2][31] Group 2 - In the liquor sector, the report notes a significant decline in government consumption, which has dropped from 30-40% to around 5% since the introduction of the "three public consumption ban" in 2012, impacting business and mass consumption indirectly [18][21] - The report outlines the 2025 operational goals for various liquor companies, indicating a rational approach to growth targets amid industry consensus on deceleration [23][24] - The report forecasts that the market size for instant retail in the liquor sector will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth observed in online sales during promotional events [32][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that the white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with macroeconomic cycles, supply-demand imbalances, and a lack of consumption scenarios affecting stock performance [40][41] - It highlights that the white liquor index has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date decline of 12.1% as of June 12, 2025 [40][39] - The report suggests that the social attributes of white liquor are evolving, with younger generations favoring different social consumption patterns, such as casual gatherings and emotional consumption [26][29]

贝森特"化债"的招靠谱吗？（二） [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 分析师：林彦 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100525030001 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com ➢ 在解决美元信用问题上美国确实玩出了"新花样"。如果说我们在上一篇中 讨论的修改监管规则、释放商业银行需求的还属于常规操作，那么深度捆绑稳定 币则是另辟蹊径的一笔——是解不了"近渴"的"远水"，但所谋甚大。 ➢ 利用加密货币这个与传统资产相对独立的新资金池来化债确实称得上 GENIUS（天才，恰巧是稳定币法案的名字） ，不得不承认在金融创新方面美国 确实走在前列。 ➢ 稳定币能不能解决美债的问题？我们认为这背后有两个维度：一个是短期内 比较直接的逻辑，除了在监管上最直接的要求外，还有把自己和"对手"绑在一 起的意味；另一个则是偏中长期、且更间接，通过巩固全球美元体系来支撑美元 信用，进而稳定美债，同时应对人民币国际化的挑战。 ➢ 对于第一个维度，市面上讨论的已经比 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry as a whole, but it highlights several companies with "Recommended" ratings, including Lante Optics, Sunny Optical Technology, and Hengxuan Technology [4][35]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the leadership of Insta360 in the global panoramic camera market, with a market share of 67.2% in the consumer-grade segment, significantly ahead of competitors like Ricoh and GoPro [2][21]. - The growth of the outdoor sports and social media sharing trends is driving the demand for action cameras, with the global action camera market experiencing a CAGR of 21.2% from 2017 to 2023 [19]. - The report identifies the rise of AR glasses and panoramic cameras as emerging markets, with key players in the supply chain expected to benefit from this growth [2][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The panoramic camera market is expanding, with Insta360 leading the consumer-grade segment and a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas sales, accounting for over 70% in the past three years [1][16]. - The report notes that the global market for panoramic cameras reached 5.03 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth to 7.85 billion yuan by 2027 [20]. 2. Company Performance - Insta360's revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a projected revenue of 5.574 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53.3% [24]. - The company has established a strong supply chain, with key suppliers like Hongjing Optoelectronics and Sunny Optical Technology benefiting from its growth [30][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the AR glasses and panoramic camera supply chain, highlighting brands like Xiaomi and Insta360, as well as manufacturers like Longqi Technology and Lixun Precision [34]. - The report indicates that the integration of AI and AR technologies in smart glasses presents significant long-term growth potential [34].

水晶光电（002273.SZ）深度报告 光学积淀，AR 领航 2025 年 06 月 17 日 ➢ 光学老兵，多元产业布局。水晶光电成立于 2002 年，作为光学细分领域的 龙头企业，下游布局设计手机、AR 眼镜等消费电子和智能车，致力于成为全球 卓越的一站式光学解决方案专家。目前公司已构建光学元器件、薄膜光学面板、 半导体光学、汽车电子（AR+）、反光材料五大业务板块，2024 年营收占比分 别为 45.94%/39.38%/2.06%/4.78%/6.27%，产品矩阵布局完善，静待下游放 量。 ➢ 消费电子为压舱石，微棱镜+滤光片助力成长。受益于消费电子市场复苏， 及苹果等客户端侧 AI 创新趋势，微棱镜及滤光片等核心器件有望迎来增长。公 司微棱镜业务于 23 年 6 月成功实现量产，伴随大客户在 AI 手机上增长放量， 叠加机种的累加效应，微棱镜市场空间仍存在一定增量。 ➢ 伴随着华为强势回归，安卓系加大对手机摄像头的创新力度，预计旋涂滤光 片的渗透率有望提升。公司滤光片业务进展迅速，根据潮电智库数据，23 年全球 手机滤光片的市场份额上水晶占据第一，达 21%。过去几年在安卓客户端推广涂 覆滤光片产品 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the demand for passenger vehicles in 2025H1 was driven by the continuation of the old-for-new policy, leading to a significant increase in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, which saw a year-on-year growth of 44.3% [1][21] - The overall wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 8.584 million units in the first four months of 2025, reflecting an 11.7% increase year-on-year, while traditional fuel vehicles experienced a decline of 6.3% [1][21] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles remained stable, with a wholesale penetration rate of 46.8% in 2025M1-4, up by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][44] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2025H2, the report forecasts that the continuation of the old-for-new policy will support demand, with expected insurance sales of 24.4 million units, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, and wholesale sales of 29.3 million units, a 6.4% increase [2][11] - The report anticipates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will accelerate, predicting insurance sales of 14.7 million units and wholesale sales of 16.5 million units for new energy vehicles in 2025H2, representing year-on-year increases of 35.7% and 34.6%, respectively [2][11] Group 3 - The competitive landscape is shifting, with domestic brands accelerating their rise and capturing market share from joint ventures, which are expected to see their market share drop below 30% [3][12] - The report notes that domestic brands are expected to exceed 70% market share in 2025, with significant growth in the mid-to-high-end segments, particularly for brands like Geely and Xiaomi [3][12] - The high-end market is experiencing pressure from domestic brands, with BBA (Benz, BMW, Audi) facing challenges in maintaining pricing power due to increasing competition from brands like Huawei and Xiaomi [3][13] Group 4 - The report identifies four major trends in the smart driving sector for 2025H2, including price reductions for smart driving features, accelerated deployment of VLA large models, enhanced hardware capabilities, and the widespread adoption of Door2Door intelligent driving [4][14] - Companies like Xiaopeng, Li Auto, and Huawei are expected to strengthen their competitive edge in smart driving through technological advancements [4][14] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic brands to expand their international presence, with expectations for passenger vehicle exports to reach 5.7 million units in 2025, a 17.0% increase year-on-year [4][12] - The report highlights that companies like BYD and Changan are establishing overseas factories, which will enhance their export capabilities and profitability [4][12]