证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 非银会融/ 证券■ 时玩人分析 2025 年 11 月 20 日 相关研究 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 重申看好并购重组投资主线! ――中金公司拟换股吸收（中金公司 A 股）合并东兴证 券、信达证券点评 事件: 11 月 19 日，中金公司发布关于筹划重大资产重组的停牌公告，中金公司拟换股吸收（中金公司 A 股）合并东兴证券、信达证券，预计停牌时间不超过 25 个交易日。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申万宏源研究微信服务号 童申看好 2026 年并购重组行业投资主线。我们 2026 年度策略提示 "并购重组仍是中期主线"之 o 一，总结 4 种投资思路：1）同一实际控制人旗下券商整合、2) 解决一参一控同业竞争、3) 区域 特色券商做大做强诉求、4）国资整合民营券商。本次中金公司拟整合信达证券、东兴证券可归属 于第 1 种思路。后续建议持续关注同一实控人下券商 ...

行 业 及 产 业 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 非银金融/ 证券Ⅱ 2025 年 11 月 20 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 重申看好并购重组投资主线！ 看好 ——中金公司拟换股吸收（中金公司 A 股）合并东兴证 券、信达证券点评 事件：11 月 19 日，中金公司发布关于筹划重大资产重组的停牌公告，中金公司拟换股吸收（中金公司 A 股）合并东兴证券、信达证券，预计停牌时间不超过 25 个交易日。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 ⚫ 重申看好 2026 年并购重组行业投资主线。我们 2026 年度策略提示"并购重组仍是中期主线"之 一，总结 4 种投资思路：1）同一实际控制人旗下券商整合、2）解决一参一控同业竞争、3）区域 特色券商做大做强诉求、4）国资整合民营券商。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 敢突破，赢非凡 2026年可转债市场展望 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 王明路 A0230525060003 徐亚 A0230524060002 2025.11.20 2026年转债市场有确定性+弹性空间，仓位分歧下降，更加需要关注个券超额 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 2025年回顾：三种定价思维的变化。2025年6月之前，可转债的定价思维依旧是周期思维，转债是典型的"上有顶下 有底"的资产，全市场的中位数价格处在130元之下，具有配置价值。2025年6月~9月，可转债的定价思维转变为权益 定价思维，转债的弹性被正股弹性放大；此时，不强赎的个券、上市半年内的个券一旦其正股具有较大的弹性，转债的 价格就会上行，转股溢价率也会很高。2025年10月之后，固收+市场中的负债主要流向了转债的交易盘，这与2025Q2 负债主要流向配置盘不同，与此同时，从对转债的持有规模来看，配置盘配置转债的规模远远小于交易盘，配置盘负债 规模以及负债的边际增量不及交易盘，这就意味着转债市场的定价思维，走向了负债驱动思维。整体来看，2025年全 年转债市场的定 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3947 | 0.18 | 2.79 | -1.33 | | 深证综指 | 2473 | -0.5 | 3.19 | -1.38 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.47 | 1.62 | 18.44 | | 中盘指数 | -0.23 | 1.21 | 25.86 | | 小盘指数 | -0.65 | 3.59 | 22.81 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 渔业 | 12.77 | 36.28 | 40.33 | | 贵金属 | 6.19 | -8.7 | 33.26 | | 航海装备Ⅱ | 4.22 | 3.11 | 11.04 | | 地面兵装Ⅱ | 3.33 | 3.69 | 44.5 | | 能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6] Core Insights - The company reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with a revenue of RMB 7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing the previous guidance of 2%-6% [5] - The company continues to expand its mid-to-high-end brand strategy, launching a new brand "Quanjidaguang" [5] - The light-asset model is driving rapid expansion and improving profitability, with a significant increase in revenue from management franchise and licensing, which grew by 27.2% year-on-year to RMB 3.3 billion [5] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 21,882 million - 2024: RMB 23,891 million - 2025E: RMB 25,378 million - 2026E: RMB 26,562 million - 2027E: RMB 28,011 million - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023: RMB 4,085 million - 2024: RMB 3,048 million - 2025E: RMB 4,740 million - 2026E: RMB 5,742 million - 2027E: RMB 6,259 million [5][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 34% in 2023 to 41% by 2027 [5][6] Market Data - The company's closing price is USD 45.22, with a market capitalization of USD 1.38 billion [3] - The company has a total of 12,702 hotels in operation globally, with 124.6 million rooms [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upcoming implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality Development of Public Funds" will bring opportunities for quantitative public funds. Active quantitative index - like enhanced products are expected to have better growth space, and attention should also be paid to the layout of quantitative fixed - income + products [44]. - In the public quantitative industry, the scale of index - enhanced products has increased, and there are differences in the scale and performance of different types of funds and products [6][14][19]. - For the layout of active quantitative index - like enhanced products, it can be considered in traditional broad - based and mainstream active equity benchmark tracks, and attention should also be paid to challenges and opportunities in different directions such as value style, industry quantification, and unique strategies [47][68][77]. - In the field of quantitative fixed - income +, there is still much market space to expand. Different management teams have different strategies, and various strategies such as low - wave strategies, position strategies, and multi - strategy combinations can be used to create products [28][93][98]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Public Quantitative Industry Status - **Top Fund Companies in Equity Quantitative Management Scale**: The top three fund companies in equity quantitative management scale are Bodao Fund, Huaxia Fund, and Fuguo Fund, and the scale of the top five fund companies exceeds 20 billion yuan [6]. - **Top 10 Quantitative Products with the Largest Scale Growth in 2025**: As of Q3, all the top 10 quantitative products with the largest scale growth in 2025 are active quantitative funds. The index - enhanced products with the largest scale growth are Harvest Semiconductor Enhancement Fund and Penghua CSI 1000 Index Enhancement [11][14]. - **Index - Enhanced Scale Changes**: From 2022 to Q3 2025, the scale of index - enhanced products increased from less than 150 billion yuan to nearly 200 billion yuan, a growth of 33%. The proportion of the three major broad - based indexes has decreased, and the proportion of other index - enhanced products has slowly increased [19]. - **Quantitative Fixed - Income + Market Share**: The market share of quantitative fixed - income + is about 6.0572 billion yuan, and there is still much market space to expand. Successful operation teams include Fuguo and China Merchants [28]. 3.2 Focus on Active Quantitative Index - like Enhanced Product Layout - **Advantages of Active Quantitative Index - like Enhanced Products**: After the implementation of the "Action Plan", the cost of investor education for index - like enhanced products will decrease. Compared with strict index - enhanced products, active quantitative index - like enhanced products have looser constraints and can achieve better excess returns in the long run [44]. - **Layout in Mainstream Benchmark Tracks**: In addition to traditional broad - based tracks, attention should also be paid to the layout of index - like enhanced products in mainstream active equity benchmark tracks, which may establish a unique market reputation in terms of information ratio and excess return stability [47]. - **Transition to Floating Management Fee Products**: Quantitative models are ideal for managing floating management fee products because they can ensure relatively stable excess returns and help fund companies collect management fees [50]. - **Challenges of Partial - Stock Fund Index - Enhanced Products**: After the implementation of the "Action Plan", products benchmarked against 885001 will face challenges, but products that can continuously outperform the entire market of active equity still have unique value [53]. - **Growth Style Strategy**: The growth style strategy based on analyst expectations can stably outperform 885001, which provides an alternative idea [58]. - **Factor Resonance Strategy**: The 885001 enhancement strategy can be upgraded to identify over - heated styles, which provides feasibility for the development of multi - strategy or factor - rotation products [63]. - **Value Style Direction**: The value - style index - like enhanced products are suitable for layout because the competition in the value style of active equity funds is less intense, and quantitative methods have advantages in value style [68]. - **Industry Quantification**: Industry quantification has not been very successful in the past, but in policy - encouraged technology directions, quantitative methods may gain long - term performance recognition [69]. - **Unique Strategies**: Unique strategies such as industry rotation, factor rotation, multi - strategy combinations, and volatility - control strategies have unique configuration values and can be considered for productization [77][82][86]. 3.3 Focus on Quantitative Fixed - Income + Layout - **Quantitative Advantages in Low - Wave Strategies**: Quantitative methods can play advantages in volatility control and portfolio exposure control in fixed - income + products. Different low - wave stock combinations can be tried, such as dividend combinations [93]. - **High - Wave Fixed - Income + Products**: In 2025, high - wave fixed - income + products emerged. Quantitative methods can provide different high - wave index - based index - enhanced fixed - income + products, but investor adaptation work is important [96]. - **Position and Asset Allocation Strategies**: Quantitative strategies such as low - wave strategies and risk - budget strategies can be used for position management in fixed - income + products, and asset allocation strategies such as risk parity and all - weather strategies can also be practiced [98]. - **Multi - Strategy Fixed - Income + Products**: Using quantitative means to create different style stock combinations and then rotating them in the fixed - income + base can provide multi - strategy fixed - income + products, and different combination methods can further enrich the risk characteristics of products [102].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huazhu (HTHT) [2][5] Core Insights - Huazhu's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing previous guidance of 2%-6% [5] - The company continues to expand its light-asset model, with a significant increase in revenue from management and franchise operations, which grew by 27.2% to RMB 3.3 billion [5] - The introduction of the new mid-to-high-end brand "Quanjing Daguan" aims to enhance the company's brand portfolio [5] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Huazhu are as follows: - 2023: RMB 21,882 million - 2024: RMB 23,891 million - 2025E: RMB 25,378 million - 2026E: RMB 26,562 million - 2027E: RMB 28,011 million - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 4,085 million - 2024: RMB 3,048 million - 2025E: RMB 4,740 million - 2026E: RMB 5,742 million - 2027E: RMB 6,259 million - The gross margin is expected to improve from 34% in 2023 to 41% by 2027 [4][6] Operational Highlights - As of the end of Q3 2025, Huazhu operates 12,702 hotels globally, with a total of 1.246 million rooms [5] - The company opened 749 new hotels in Q3 2025, aiming for a total of 2,300 new openings for the year [5] - The domestic RevPAR for Q3 2025 was RMB 256, showing a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, while the overseas RevPAR improved by 6.1% to €87 [5] Strategic Developments - The company is focused on enhancing its mid-to-high-end offerings and has launched the "Quanjing Daguan" brand to diversify its product line [5] - A dividend payment of approximately RMB 1.8 billion in Q3 reflects the company's confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns [5]

Core Insights - The report indicates a challenging environment for perpetual bonds in the banking sector, with both supply and demand expected to remain weak in 2026 [2][3] - The net supply of perpetual bonds is projected to stabilize at a low level, with significant contributions from TLAC bonds [2][3] - Demand for bank perpetual bonds is facing challenges due to regulatory changes and market conditions, impacting their attractiveness [2][3] Supply - The net supply of perpetual bonds has decreased significantly, with 2025's issuance at 1.38 trillion yuan, down from previous years, and net financing dropping to 363 billion yuan [8][12] - The supply is expected to remain low in 2026, with net financing projected to be around 400-500 billion yuan, characterized by a decline in large banks' issuance and an increase from smaller banks [2][3] - TLAC bonds are anticipated to provide some relief to the supply side, with a projected net supply of around 300 billion yuan in 2026 [2][3] Demand - Bank perpetual bonds continue to be a crucial component of the credit bond market, but demand is weakening due to regulatory changes and market dynamics [2][3] - The implementation of new accounting standards for insurance companies may reduce their investment capacity in perpetual bonds, although the overall impact is expected to be manageable [2][3] - The demand from banks for self-managed investments is likely to stabilize, while mutual funds may face challenges due to new fee regulations, impacting their allocation to perpetual bonds [2][3] Valuation - The report highlights the potential for a shift in the relative valuation of perpetual bonds due to weak supply and demand dynamics [3][3] - Credit spreads for perpetual bonds may face upward pressure if participation from funds and insurance companies diminishes, with projected spreads for 3-year AAA-rated bonds in the range of 25-60 basis points [3][3] - The valuation of different bond types is expected to diverge, with higher-grade bonds potentially facing upward pressure on spreads [3][3] Strategy - The report suggests a tactical approach to trading opportunities in high-grade bank perpetual bonds, with a focus on price differences between new and existing bonds [3][3] - For mid-sized banks' perpetual bonds, it is recommended to actively monitor value propositions while being cautious of non-redemption risks [3][3] - TLAC bonds are noted for their dual value in both allocation and trading, with a particular emphasis on floating rate bonds [3][3]

Group 1: Oil and Gas Exploration - The supply of oil is expected to slow down, maintaining Brent oil prices in a neutral range of $55-70 per barrel in 2026, with OPEC+ production pace easing and non-OPEC growth significantly declining [3][9] - Global GDP growth is projected at approximately 3.1% in 2026, leading to a slowdown in oil demand growth [3][9] - Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, with ongoing sanctions on risk oil types, although some expectations are already priced into stock valuations [3][9] Group 2: Refining Industry - The refining sector is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability due to domestic "anti-involution" policies and the gradual exit of overseas refining capacity [4] - New refining capacity additions are nearing completion, but there will still be significant pressure on the supply side in the coming years [4] - The overall refining sector is expected to have reached a bottom in terms of profitability, with substantial potential for upward elasticity in the future [4] Group 3: Polyester Industry - The polyester industry is expected to experience limited new investment, with significant recovery potential in profitability due to the end of large capital expenditures in PTA and coordinated production cuts by leading companies [5] - The production capacity growth for polyester filament is projected to maintain a rate of 2-3%, with expectations for improved downstream demand [5] - The industry is nearing the end of new capacity releases for polyester bottle chips, leading to an ideal collaborative effect among companies and gradual recovery in profitability [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The downstream polyester sector is tightening in supply and demand, with improvement expectations, recommending high-quality companies in polyester filament and bottle chips [6] - With oil prices expected to decline, refining companies are anticipated to see cost improvements, suggesting attention to major refining companies [6] - The upstream exploration and development sector remains highly prosperous, with offshore capital expenditures expected to remain high, recommending offshore oil service companies [6]

证 券 研 究 报 告 刚性"泡沫" ——2026年海外宏观经济展望 证券分析师：赵伟 A0230524070010 陈达飞 A0230524080010 2025.11.19 ◼ 2022年底ChatGPT诞生以来，大类资产价格的泡沫化与分化并存，反映的是AI产业趋势的"强预期"和经济周期"弱现实" 的冲突。2025年，特朗普"对等关税"冲击有惊无险；美国经济"软着陆"；央行"降息潮"继续演绎和美元"意外"走弱； 权益等风险资产与黄金等避险资产"齐飞"。但历史回溯而言，当"强预期"和"弱现实"的割裂演绎到极致时，"泡沫" 破裂的风险或趋于上行。 ◼ 2025年，贸易"前置"推动美国与非美经济"大收敛"——美国"前低后高"、非美"前高后低"。2026年，美、欧、日 经济周期依然存在冲突。美国经济"软着陆"仍是基准假设，私人消费的主要矛盾是"缺钱、缺人、缺工作"，AI资本开支 对GDP的拉动或边际走弱，地产链企稳、但弹性偏弱；欧元区核心国与外围国从分化走向收敛，可关注德国制造的周期性复 苏；日本"物价-工资-利润"良性循环启动，关注内循环的持续性。 ◼ 2026年，美、欧、日货币政策周期趋于分化，财政扩张的力度 ...