Group 1 - The report highlights high-growth potential sectors for Q2 2025, including optical modules, diesel generators, innovative pharmaceuticals, and deep-sea technology, driven by increasing demand and supportive policies [2][22][23] - Key themes identified include anti-involution for high-quality industry development, deep-sea technology as a pillar of marine economic strategy, and the acceleration of global stablecoin regulatory frameworks [2][23] - The report notes that the central bank is enhancing financial support for the real economy and expanding the technical standard system for emerging industries [2][23] Group 2 - The report on interest rates indicates that the net issuance of government bonds will remain relatively high in the second half of the year, with a more uniform monthly issuance pattern expected [3][28] - It is anticipated that the central bank will continue to use various tools to stabilize the funding environment, with potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut in the third quarter [3][30] - The bond market is experiencing a shift from a bear to a bull market, with a notable correlation between stock and bond performance observed in the second quarter [5][31] Group 3 - The report on Chip Dynamics (688582) indicates that the company is a leader in MEMS sensors, with projected revenues of 4.05 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.22 billion yuan for 2024, maintaining a gross margin above 70% [9][35] - The company has achieved a 23.45% market share in MEMS gyroscopes, reflecting a 14 percentage point increase since 2019, and is positioned to benefit from the growth in smart driving and industrial automation [9][35][36] - The IMU segment is expected to grow rapidly, with a CAGR of 175.8% from 2021 to 2024, driven by demand in low-altitude economy, smart driving, and humanoid robots [9][36][37] Group 4 - The report on Kangnait Optical (02276) forecasts a net profit increase of no less than 30% for the first half of 2025, driven by global strategic expansion and product structure optimization [11] - The company is enhancing its supply chain resilience by establishing a new high-end lens production line in Japan, which will mitigate tariff risks and ensure stable supply to the U.S. market [11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the resin lens market, with a focus on functional and customized lenses, leading to improved profitability [11] Group 5 - The report on Jinhui Industrial (002597) highlights the approval of D-alloheptulose as a food ingredient, marking a significant step in aligning domestic applications with international standards [12][16] - The company is positioned as the second approved enzyme manufacturer for D-alloheptulose in China, showcasing its technological leadership in functional sweeteners [12][16] - The projected net profits for Jinhui Industrial are 1.171 billion yuan, 2.118 billion yuan, and 2.365 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [12][16]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing pressure from graduation banquets, but the stabilization of Moutai prices may boost confidence [2][13] - The approval of D-allohexose and the implementation of childcare subsidies are key investment opportunities in the consumer goods sector [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From June 30 to July 4, the food and beverage sector increased by 0.62%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.54% [1][24] - Specific segments include meat products (+1.22%), liquor III (+1.20%), baked goods (+0.92%), and beverages (-1.64%) [1][24] Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector saw a 1.20% increase, outperforming the overall food and beverage industry but underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2][13] - The price of 25-year Moutai (original) is 1935 yuan, up by 65 yuan from the previous week, indicating a potential recovery in industry confidence [2][13] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The approval of new food raw materials and the rollout of childcare subsidies are expected to catalyze growth in the health products, soft drinks, snacks, and dairy sectors [4][15] - The childcare subsidy program provides 3600 yuan per child annually, which may positively impact the dairy sector [4][15] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, focus on companies benefiting from concentration and strong alpha, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [5][22] - In the consumer goods sector, recommend companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies, including Lihigh Food and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current issuance progress of interest - rate bonds in 2025, predicts the issuance rhythm in the second half of the year, and evaluates its impact. It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market, and the overall impact of the issuance of special refinancing bonds on the capital market is controllable [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Current Issuance Progress - **Treasury Bonds**: As of July 7, 2025, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 32955 billion yuan, with a progress of 53.5%, the fastest in the same period in the past five years. The issuance scale of major - term coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance progress of special treasury bonds exceeded half, with the first issuance peak in May [10][16]. - **Local Bonds**: The issuance rhythm of local bonds in the first half of the year was faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 - 2023. General bonds showed the characteristics of "accelerating from January to March, slow issuance from April to May, and accelerating again in the last week of June". The issuance of special bonds was relatively even, and the progress slightly exceeded that of the same period in 2024. The issuance of special refinancing bonds was concentrated in the first quarter and gradually ended in the second quarter. The issuance of special new special bonds exceeded half, with a large volume in the second quarter [23][32]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: Since 2020, the issuance scale of policy - financial bonds has basically remained in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of policy - financial bonds was 34968 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 58%, generally higher than the same - period level in the past five years [36]. 3.2 Issuance Rhythm in the Second Half of the Year - **Treasury Bonds**: The net issuance scale in the second half of the year remains relatively high. The issuance of ordinary treasury bonds may be more evenly distributed monthly, with a slower rhythm but a high net issuance scale. For special treasury bonds, as of July 7, 2025, there were still 10 bonds to be issued, with a remaining quota of 6220 billion yuan, and the average issuance scale per bond was about 622 billion yuan. August - September may be the peak issuance months [40][44]. - **Local Bonds**: In the case of new local bonds, two scenarios are considered. In both scenarios, the third quarter may see a supply peak. If 2 trillion yuan of debt - resolution quota for next year is advanced to this year's fourth quarter, the supply pressure in October may increase significantly, and the pressure in November - December will decrease. The issuance of policy - financial bonds is expected to maintain a balanced rhythm, with the total issuance amount remaining in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan, and the rhythm tends to be front - loaded [3][4][48]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: The total issuance amount is expected to remain in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan since 2020. The rhythm tends to be front - loaded, estimated by referring to the average issuance in the same period from 2020 - 2024 [72]. 3.3 Impact Assessment It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market. If there is a reserve requirement ratio cut, the third quarter may be a good observation period. If not, the central bank may increase the investment of outright reverse repurchases and MLF or restart treasury bond trading operations. Referring to the situation in the fourth quarter of 2024, if special refinancing bonds are issued in advance in the fourth quarter of this year, the overall impact is expected to be controllable [5][77].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the MEMS inertial sensor market, benefiting from a fully controlled technology chain and high gross margins, with a projected revenue of 4.05 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.22 billion yuan in 2024 [1][4]. - The company has established a strong market presence, achieving a 23.45% market share in domestic MEMS gyroscopes by 2022, up approximately 14 percentage points from 2019 [2]. - The IMU segment is expected to grow rapidly, with a CAGR of 175.8% from 2021 to 2024, driven by demand from low-altitude economy, advanced driving, and humanoid robots [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2012, has achieved full control over the technology chain from chip design to packaging and testing, with its third-generation MEMS gyroscope reaching international advanced levels [1][14]. - The leadership team has extensive experience in the semiconductor field, contributing to the company's technological advancements [16][18]. Core Product Layout - The company's core products, MEMS gyroscopes and accelerometers, have high technical barriers and are applicable in high-end industrial and unmanned systems [2]. - The company is gradually replacing imports in the MEMS inertial sensor market, with a focus on high-performance products [2][4]. IMU Growth Drivers - The IMU, which integrates gyroscopes and accelerometers, is positioned to benefit from emerging markets such as low-altitude economy and smart driving [3]. - The company is actively developing automotive-grade IMUs to meet the growing demand for high-precision positioning systems [3]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.19 billion yuan, 8.60 billion yuan, and 11.84 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 3.39 billion yuan, 4.59 billion yuan, and 6.04 billion yuan [4][5]. - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.85 yuan, 1.14 yuan, and 1.51 yuan per share, respectively, with a PE ratio of 77X for 2025 [4][5].

Market Review - The A-share market rose by 1.22% during the week of June 30 to July 4, with strong performance in the glass and innovative drug sectors [2] - The average daily trading volume for the A-share market was 1.4384 trillion yuan, a decrease of 45 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating high market activity [2] - The average number of rising stocks decreased to 2,610, down by 1,012 from the previous week, reflecting a weakening profit effect [2] High Prosperity Sectors Outlook for Q2 2025 - High-growth potential sectors identified for Q2 2025 include optical modules, diesel generators, innovative drugs, and deep-sea technology [2] - The optical module sector is expected to maintain high growth due to increased data transmission rate requirements [29] - The diesel generator market is anticipated to see a rise in both volume and price as AIDC construction accelerates [37] - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from BD transactions and supportive policies, which are expected to enhance growth opportunities [39] - Deep-sea technology is showing high prosperity trends supported by policy initiatives [43] Key Themes - The "anti-involution" policy aims to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, facilitating high-quality industry development [3][47] - Deep-sea technology is positioned as a critical pillar of the marine economy, driving economic acceleration [3][54] - The global regulatory framework for stablecoins is rapidly taking shape, providing new opportunities for the internationalization of the renminbi [3][50] Policy Dynamics - The central bank is enhancing financial support for the real economy, with a focus on emerging industries and technology standards [4] - Recent policies emphasize the importance of high-quality development in the marine economy and the establishment of a unified national market [4][59] Industry Trends - The artificial intelligence sector is advancing with initiatives like the global multi-center plan for AI pathology models [5] - The TMT sector is seeing the introduction of the first national 6G industry policy in Beijing [5] - The biopharmaceutical sector is experiencing growth with increased clinical trials and innovations in brain-machine interfaces [5] - The deep-sea economy is being reinforced by the establishment of leadership groups to enhance industry coordination [5] - The high-end manufacturing sector is benefiting from the lifting of EDA export restrictions to China [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company expects a year-on-year increase of no less than 30% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, driven by strong sales growth of high refractive index and functional products, leading to an increase in average selling prices [1]. - The company is one of the few manufacturers capable of producing resin lenses with a refractive index of 1.74, and its C2M model effectively ensures the delivery efficiency of customized glasses [1]. - The company plans to invest approximately $4 million to build an automated resin lens production line in Japan, aimed at enhancing its production capacity for high-end customized lenses and improving supply chain resilience [2]. - The new production line is expected to increase annual production capacity by 20% compared to existing facilities and will help mitigate risks associated with trade tensions between China and the U.S. [2]. - The company is actively engaging with leading global technology and consumer electronics firms in its XR (Extended Reality) business, preparing for potential mass production of AR and AI glasses [3]. - The establishment of a national-level R&D center will further strengthen the company's innovation capabilities and project management [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of no less than 271 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [1]. - Revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 560 million, 670 million, and 790 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31X, 26X, and 22X [4]. Production and Supply Chain - The new Japanese production line is expected to enhance the company's ability to respond to customer needs in the Asia-Pacific region and improve overall production cost efficiency [2]. - The diversified production base is anticipated to strengthen the company's resilience against geopolitical uncertainties and currency fluctuations [2]. Research and Development - The company is committed to continuous investment in R&D, focusing on innovative products with varying refractive indices and functionalities [3]. - The establishment of an XR R&D center is part of the company's strategy to enhance its technological capabilities and foster collaboration with industry leaders [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The approval of D-Allulose as a food ingredient marks a significant milestone for the company, positioning it as the second enterprise in China to receive approval for enzyme-based production of D-Allulose, enhancing its competitive edge in the functional sweetener market [3][4]. - The company currently has an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons for D-Allulose and is evaluating the potential for further expansion, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the sweetener segment [3][4]. - The financial projections for the company show a recovery in net profit, with expected figures of 1.17 billion, 2.12 billion, and 2.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a significant growth rate [4][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized for its technological leadership in the functional sweetener sector, particularly with the recent approval of its enzyme product for D-Allulose production [3]. Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2025 is 6.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 25.03% compared to the previous year [4]. - The expected EBITDA for 2025 is 1.83 billion yuan, indicating a strong operational performance [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 1.17 billion yuan, with a remarkable growth rate of 110.40% [4]. Market Position - The approval of D-Allulose aligns the company with international standards, as it follows similar approvals in the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, suggesting a robust market potential both domestically and internationally [2][3].

Group 1: Northbound Capital Analysis - In Q2 2025, Northbound capital actively increased positions in both traditional economy sectors and new tracks, with significant additions in non-ferrous metals, transportation, public utilities, non-bank financials, and construction decoration [2][22] - Major reductions were observed in food and beverage, home appliances, and machinery sectors, indicating a shift from core assets to traditional economy and from old tracks to new tracks [2][22] - The absolute holding amounts showed significant decreases for companies like BOE A (-38.39%), Luxshare Precision (-38.29%), and Wuliangye (-30.22%) [23][24] Group 2: Dollar Outlook - The report suggests that the downtrend of the dollar is expected to continue at least until mid-2025, with recent upticks being merely a "rebound" rather than a "reversal" [3][29] - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions and a loss of attractiveness as a global reserve currency [3][27] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in Q3 2025, but maintains that the overall downtrend remains dominant [29] Group 3: Credit Bond ETF Strategy - Since May, the credit bond market has exhibited independent trends, driven by rapid growth in credit bond ETF scales and expectations for future space [4][30] - The trading activity of component bonds has significantly increased, with higher turnover rates compared to non-component bonds [30][31] - The report indicates that the valuation of component bonds may further compress, with potential trading opportunities in non-component bonds due to liquidity premiums [32] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Daikin Heavy Industries is positioned as the only supplier in the Asia-Pacific region capable of delivering offshore products to the European market, with a strong order backlog [11][35] - The company has transitioned to a DAP (Delivered at Place) product model, enhancing its service offerings and increasing order value [11][35] - Revenue projections for Daikin Heavy Industries are set at 6.51 billion, 8.40 billion, and 9.74 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates adjusted to 1.05 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively [11][36] Group 5: Chemical Industry Analysis - Xin'an Chemical is recognized as a leading player in the glyphosate and silicone markets, with expectations for improved market conditions in the silicone sector [12][20] - The company has a glyphosate production capacity of 80,000 tons and is expanding its product range under a "1+2+N" strategy [12][20] - Revenue forecasts for Xin'an Chemical are projected at 15.5 billion, 17.3 billion, and 18.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to reach 299 million, 651 million, and 802 million yuan [12][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the correlation between stocks and bonds, exploring whether the "see - stock - do - bond" approach will become a new trading theme in the bond market. It analyzes the stock - bond pattern this year, historical "stock - bond seesaw" situations, and provides an outlook for the bond market. Currently, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more prominent, and the bond market may face certain disturbances, but the liquidity environment is still relatively favorable [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Year's Stock - Bond Pattern Deduction - In the first quarter, it was a "tight money + wide credit" environment, with a typical stock - bond "seesaw" effect. The stock market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 6.8% and the CSI 300 rising 6.0% from January 6 to March 17. The bond market was in shock consolidation, with short - end yields rising significantly [11][13][14]. - In the second quarter, it shifted to a "wide money + wide credit" environment, showing a stock - bond double - bull pattern. The stock market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 11.2% and the CSI 300 rising 9.7% from April 1 to June 30. The bond market had a recovery, with short - end yields falling significantly [11][18][19]. 3.2 Historical Stock - Bond "Seesaw" - **2016.10 - 2018.01: Economic Recovery + Monetary Tightening, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 15%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 134BP. The economic fundamentals were good, and the central bank tightened monetary policy, leading to a tight money supply [24][27][31]. - **2020.04 - 2020.12: Economic Repair + Monetary Neutrality, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 27%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 79BP. The economy recovered, and the central bank's monetary policy returned to normal. The supply pressure of government bonds increased, tightening the money supply [32][34][39]. - **2022.11 - 2023.02: Policy Intensification + Expectation Change, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 11%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 27BP. Policy adjustments boosted the expectation of economic recovery, and the bond market was affected by the negative feedback of wealth management redemptions [40][41][45]. - **2024.09 - 2024.10: Policy Tailwind + Institutional Profit - Taking, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 28%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 15BP. A series of policies boosted economic recovery expectations, and the central bank's monetary policy "good news was exhausted." Institutional profit - taking increased the bond market adjustment risk [47][49][55]. 3.3 Bond Market Outlook: See - Stock - Do - Bond? - The current bond market trading is crowded, while the stock's cost - performance is relatively high. The central bank's overall further easing policy may be limited in the short term, and the money supply may maintain a "low - volatility and rigid" state [5]. - The "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more obvious, and the logic of "see - stock - do - bond" may disturb the bond market sentiment. It is advisable to moderately participate in curve steepening trading, with a strategy of "defending and squeezing spreads at the short - to - medium end + allocating on dips at the long end" [59][60][65].

Core Conclusions - Northbound capital in Q2 2025 actively increased positions in both traditional economy sectors and new tracks, with significant additions in non-ferrous metals, transportation, public utilities, non-bank financials, and construction decoration [1][8] - The main sectors for increased positions in new tracks include pharmaceutical biology (with a focus on innovative drugs) and communication (including overseas computing power) [1][8] - The sectors that saw reductions include food and beverage, home appliances, and machinery equipment, indicating a shift from core assets to traditional economy and from old tracks to new tracks [1][8] Industry Analysis 1. Absolute Holdings - In Q2 2025, significant reductions were observed in companies such as BOE Technology Group (-38.39%), Luxshare Precision (-38.29%), Wuliangye (-30.22%), and Haier Smart Home (-29.19%) [2][44] - Conversely, notable increases were seen in Zijin Mining (+27.09%), Ping An Bank (+35.42%), and Heng Rui Medicine (+45.66%) [2][44] 2. Sector Performance - The highest market values held by Northbound capital were in the following sectors: electric power equipment (279 billion), banking (254.8 billion), electronics (230.1 billion), food and beverage (191 billion), and pharmaceutical biology (159.8 billion) [3][11] - In the upstream sector, most industries saw a decline in holdings, with only non-ferrous metals experiencing an increase [2][14] - In the midstream manufacturing sector, machinery equipment saw a decrease of 111.29 billion, while communication increased by 105.17 billion [2][15] 3. Consumer Sector - The consumer sector experienced significant reductions, with food and beverage down by 282.57 billion and home appliances down by 224.77 billion [3][20] - In contrast, the media sector increased by 7.28 billion, and pharmaceutical biology saw an increase of 92.59 billion [3][20] 4. Financial and Real Estate Sector - All segments within the financial and real estate sectors saw increases, with banking up by 280.76 billion and non-bank financials up by 152.80 billion [3][24] 5. Support Services - In support services, only the computer and environmental sectors saw reductions, while public utilities and transportation experienced increases [3][26]