- The report primarily focuses on the weekly performance of the equity market, highlighting the resilience of the A-share market amidst global trade policy fluctuations and the rising prominence of technology and new consumption sectors [13][14][18] - It mentions the issuance of multiple quantitative products, including A500 Index Enhanced and Sci-Tech Composite Index Enhanced funds, which aim to enrich the market's product offerings [13][72][73] - The report tracks the weekly net inflow and outflow of funds across various ETF categories, showing significant movements in wide-base indices, industry-specific ETFs, and thematic ETFs [42][43][46] - Quantitative models such as the "Cinda Financial Engineering Industry Rotation Strategy" are referenced, which monitor marginal changes in holdings by high-performing funds to identify over-allocated and under-allocated sectors [37][38][41] - The report provides detailed fund flow data, including top-performing sectors like electronics, communication, and non-bank finance, as well as sectors with significant outflows such as automobiles, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [60][65][67]

Investment Rating - The report rates the oil processing industry as "Positive" [1] Core Views - Oil prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $66.47 and $64.58 per barrel respectively as of June 6, 2025, influenced by supply pressures and geopolitical factors [7][25] - The report highlights a significant increase in U.S. crude oil processing volume, which reached 16.99 million barrels per day, up by 670,000 barrels per day from the previous week [60] - The report notes a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., with a total of 442 rigs, down by 19 from the previous week [49] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $66.47 per barrel, up by $3.69 (5.88%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $64.58 per barrel, an increase of $3.79 (6.23%) [25] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms decreased to 380, down by 6 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms totaled 137, down by 1 [31] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.408 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.07 million barrels per day from the previous week [49] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume increased to 16.998 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.40%, up by 3.2 percentage points from the previous week [60] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stood at 838 million barrels, a decrease of 3.795 million barrels (-0.45%) from the previous week [69] U.S. Product Oil Inventory - U.S. gasoline inventory increased by 5.219 million barrels (2.34%), while diesel and jet fuel inventories also saw increases of 423,000 barrels (4.09%) and 93,800 barrels (2.20%) respectively [60] Related Stocks - Key stocks in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1]

央行新增信息披露态度呵护 隔夜利率逼近 1.4% —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250608 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 8 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行 OMO 净回笼 6717 亿，周五买断式逆回购招标 10000 亿。 尽管本周初企业所得税汇算清缴走款带来了一定扰动，逆回购整体维持净回 笼，但资金面整体仍维持宽松，周五买断式逆回购落地，DR007 降至 1.53%。 ➢ 质押式回购成交量在周四升至 7.86 万亿的年内新高后小幅回落，全周日均 成交上升 1.0 万亿至 7.50 万亿；质押式回购整体规模同样在周四创下 1 月 以来的新高后回落，但仍明显高于上周。各类银行净融出上半周均有所抬升， 下半周股份行与城商行净融出回落，大行净融出升破 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 1.53%, while other electronic sectors have experienced mixed performance [2] - Broadcom's Q2 revenue reached a record high of $15 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 20%, driven by strong performance in AI semiconductor business and VMware [2][3] - AI business revenue for Broadcom grew by 46% year-over-year, contributing $4.4 billion in Q2 [2] - The company expects the growth trend in AI revenue to continue into FY26, with Q3 revenue guidance of $15.8 billion, representing a 21% year-over-year increase [2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The performance of the semiconductor sector has been positive with a 3.25% increase this week, while other electronic sectors have shown varied results [2][8] - Notable stock performances include Apple (+1.53%), Tesla (-14.81%), and Micron Technology (+14.93%) [2][11] Financial Highlights - Broadcom's Q2 GAAP net profit was $4.965 billion, a 134% increase year-over-year [2] - The semiconductor division's revenue was $8.4 billion, up 17% year-over-year, with AI business revenue reaching $4.4 billion [2] - The gross margin for Q2 was 68%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points year-over-year [2] Future Outlook - Broadcom has released the Tomahawk 6 switch chip, which has a single-chip switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, double the current Ethernet switch bandwidth [2] - The company anticipates Q3 semiconductor revenue to be $9.1 billion, a 25% increase year-over-year, with AI business revenue projected to reach $5.1 billion [2] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks to watch include companies in the computing chain such as Industrial Fulian, Shenzhen South Circuit, and others in the domestic computing and semiconductor sectors [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the electric power equipment and new energy sectors are expected to see improved profitability, particularly in the electric vehicle battery segment, as lithium battery supply issues are anticipated to reach a turning point. The decline in lithium carbonate prices is expected to lower battery costs and stimulate downstream demand [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of the electric power equipment sector, predicting a significant investment year for the grid, driven by increased electricity demand from emerging industries like AI and the rapid development of renewable energy, which is creating pressure on the grid [2][3] - In the energy storage sector, the report forecasts sustained high growth in 2025, with opportunities arising from the development of large-scale storage, commercial storage, and household storage [3][4] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to benefit from high demand in Europe and a robust domestic market, with new technologies like TOPCON and HJT accelerating the market's growth [3][4] - The report also discusses the industrial control and humanoid robot sectors, noting the establishment of the Guangdong Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Industry Alliance, which is expected to facilitate the industrialization of humanoid robots [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections New Energy Vehicles - The report indicates that in April 2025, new energy vehicle sales reached 1.226 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, while the installed capacity of power batteries was 54.1 GWh, up 54.6% year-on-year [11][12] Electric Power Equipment and Energy Storage - The report suggests that 2025 will be a significant year for grid investment, with a focus on companies like Suyuan Electric, Haixing Power, and Jindan Technology [2][3] - In energy storage, the report highlights investment opportunities in large-scale storage, commercial storage, and household storage, recommending companies such as Nanfang Technology and Sungrow Power [3][4] Photovoltaic Industry - The report notes that the photovoltaic sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly in Europe, and highlights the potential of new technologies to drive growth [3][4] Industrial Control and Humanoid Robots - The establishment of the Guangdong Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Industry Alliance is expected to enhance collaboration among robot companies and accelerate the industrialization of humanoid robots [5][6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses macroeconomic indicators such as the 10-year US Treasury yield, domestic M2 growth, and the M1-M2 scissors difference to predict the relative excess return of the CSI Dividend Index compared to the Wind All A Index[8][12] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates three key indicators: 1. **Global Liquidity**: 10-year US Treasury yield 2. **Internal Liquidity**: Domestic M2 year-on-year growth 3. **Domestic Economic Expectations**: Domestic M1-M2 year-on-year scissors difference - Historical data from 2010 onward is used to calculate the annualized excess return of the timing strategy, which is 8.14%[8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong predictive power for excess returns, but its performance in 2025 YTD shows a negative excess return of -5.36%, indicating potential short-term challenges[8] 2. Model Name: Regression-Based Valuation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the CSI Dividend Index's absolute and relative PETTM valuation levels to predict future absolute and excess returns[19][21] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Absolute Valuation**: - The absolute PETTM valuation of the CSI Dividend Index is calculated using a weighted factor adjustment to align with its dividend yield characteristics - Historical data shows a correlation coefficient of -29.66% between the absolute PETTM percentile and future absolute returns, with a regression T-statistic of -15.61[19] - Regression formula: $ y = -0.281x + 0.2635 $ - $y$: Future absolute return - $x$: Absolute PETTM percentile[23] - **Relative Valuation**: - The relative PETTM is calculated as the ratio of the CSI Dividend Index's PETTM to the Wind All A Index's PETTM - Historical data shows a correlation coefficient of -34.10% between the relative PETTM percentile and future excess returns, with a regression T-statistic of -18.23[21] - Regression formula: $ y = -0.1233x + 0.0984 $ - $y$: Future excess return - $x$: Relative PETTM percentile[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies valuation extremes, with higher PETTM levels indicating greater downside risk. However, the current valuation levels suggest limited upside potential[19][22] 3. Model Name: Price-Volume Regression Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses price and volume metrics, such as the weight of stocks above the 120-day moving average and trading volume percentiles, to predict future returns[25][31] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Price Dimension**: - The weight of CSI Dividend Index constituents above the 120-day moving average is calculated - Historical data shows a correlation coefficient of -43.92% between this weight and future absolute returns, with a regression T-statistic of -20.70[25] - Regression formula: $ y = -0.2344x + 0.2115 $ - $y$: Future absolute return - $x$: Weight above the 120-day moving average[27] - **Volume Dimension**: - Absolute trading volume percentiles are calculated for the CSI Dividend Index - Historical data shows a correlation coefficient of -39.91% between trading volume percentiles and future absolute returns, with a regression T-statistic of -21.87[31] - Regression formula: $ y = -0.3821x + 0.3434 $ - $y$: Future absolute return - $x$: Trading volume percentile[31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights the importance of price and volume extremes in predicting returns. Current metrics suggest moderate upside potential[25][31] 4. Model Name: Dividend 50 Optimized Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This portfolio combines high dividend yield stocks with a linear multi-factor model to enhance capital gains while maintaining a stable dividend style exposure[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - High dividend yield stocks are selected as the base - A linear multi-factor model is applied to optimize capital gains - Barra style factor constraints are used to ensure consistent dividend style exposure - Timing adjustments are made based on the three-dimensional dividend timing model to further enhance returns[45] - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio demonstrates strong performance, with significant excess returns over the CSI Dividend Index[45] --- Model Backtest Results 1. Dividend Timing Model - Annualized excess return since 2010: 8.14%[8] - 2025 YTD excess return: -5.36%[8] 2. Regression-Based Valuation Model - **Absolute Valuation**: - Current absolute PETTM: 9.35x - 3-year percentile: 98.53% - Predicted future absolute return: -1.34%[19][22] - **Relative Valuation**: - Current relative PETTM: 0.49x - 3-year percentile: 72.36% - Predicted future excess return: 0.92%[22][30] 3. Price-Volume Regression Model - **Price Dimension**: - Weight above 120-day moving average: 57.03% - Predicted future absolute return: 7.78%[25][27] - **Volume Dimension**: - Absolute trading volume percentile: 47.40% - Predicted future absolute return: 16.23%[31] - Relative trading volume percentile: 7.21% - Predicted future excess return: 0.81%[32] 4. Dividend 50 Optimized Portfolio - **Performance Metrics**: - 1-year absolute return: 9.53% - 1-year excess return: 6.20% - 3-month absolute return: 6.04% - 3-month excess return: 2.91%[46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the release of the green electricity direct connection policy, which supports the collaboration between waste incineration power generation and data centers (IDC) [2][11] - The environmental sector has shown a slight increase of 0.46% as of June 6, 2025, underperforming compared to the broader market, with specific segments like water treatment and environmental equipment showing positive trends [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the green electricity direct connection policy in optimizing grid allocation and enhancing the efficiency of renewable energy consumption [15][16] Market Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the environmental sector index increased by 0.46%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.13% [4] - The water treatment sector increased by 1.38%, while the waste incineration sector saw a slight decline of 0.31% [6] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "2024 China Ecological Environment Status Bulletin," indicating continuous improvement in air quality and water quality across key river basins [18] - A joint announcement from several ministries outlined plans for a unified ecological compensation mechanism for major rivers by 2027, aiming for comprehensive coverage by 2035 [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will maintain high demand for energy conservation and environmental protection, with a focus on quality operational assets benefiting from market reforms [25] - Key recommendations include companies like Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention on Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co., Ltd. [25][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the release of the green electricity direct connection policy, which supports the collaboration between waste incineration power generation and data centers (IDC) [2][11] - The environmental sector has shown a slight increase of 0.46% as of June 6, 2025, underperforming compared to the broader market, with specific segments like water treatment and environmental equipment showing positive trends [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the green electricity direct connection policy in optimizing grid allocation and enhancing the efficiency of renewable energy consumption, particularly benefiting waste incineration power generation [15][16] Market Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the environmental sector index increased by 0.46%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.13% [4] - The water treatment sector saw a rise of 1.38%, while the waste incineration sector experienced a decline of 0.31% [6] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "2024 China Ecological Environment Status Bulletin," indicating continuous improvement in air quality and water quality across key river basins [18] - A joint announcement from several government departments outlined plans for a unified ecological compensation mechanism for major rivers by 2027, aiming for comprehensive coverage by 2035 [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will maintain high demand for energy conservation and environmental protection, with a focus on resource recycling [25] - Key recommendations include companies like Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention on Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co., Ltd. [25][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the electric power equipment and new energy sectors are expected to see improved profitability, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) battery segment, as lithium battery supply issues are anticipated to reach a turning point. The decline in lithium carbonate prices is expected to lower battery costs and stimulate downstream demand [2][3] - The report emphasizes the growing demand for electric power equipment driven by emerging industries like AI, which is expected to lead to increased investment in global power grids. The report suggests that 2025 may be a significant year for grid investment [2][3] - In the energy storage sector, the report forecasts sustained high growth, particularly in large-scale storage and commercial storage, driven by the development of virtual power plants and the upcoming summer peak electricity demand [3][6] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The report notes a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, with April 2025 sales reaching 1.226 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%. The installed capacity of power batteries in April was 54.1 GWh, up 54.6% year-on-year [11][13] - Key companies to watch include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and BYD, among others [2][3] Electric Power Equipment and Energy Storage - The report indicates that the electric power equipment sector is poised for growth due to increased demand from AI and renewable energy developments. It recommends focusing on companies like Sifang Co., XJ Electric, and others [2][3] - In energy storage, the report highlights the potential for large-scale storage and commercial storage to thrive, with recommended companies including Nanjing Tech and Sungrow Power [3][6] Photovoltaics - The report mentions strong demand in Europe and a robust domestic market for ground-mounted solar power plants. It highlights the potential for new technologies like TOPCon to drive further growth in the solar market [3][15] - Recommended companies include Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy, and others [3][6] Industrial Control & Robotics - The report notes an upcoming cycle of industrial control equipment updates, with a PMI of 49.5% in May 2025, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing [5] - The establishment of the Guangdong AI and Robotics Industry Alliance is expected to facilitate the development of the humanoid robotics sector [5][6] Low-altitude Economy - The report discusses the rapid development of low-altitude economy projects, particularly eVTOL, with the establishment of a national low-altitude traffic network [6] - Companies to watch include CATL and others involved in low-altitude transportation [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Cautious" as the industry index is expected to underperform the benchmark [119] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that oil prices have a weak guiding effect on refining products, leading to a decline in product price spreads [1] - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2495.45 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.43 CNY/ton (+0.42%), while the foreign key refining project price spread is 1048.26 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 32.68 CNY/ton (-3.02%) [2][1] - Brent crude oil average price for the week ending June 6, 2025, is 65.17 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.09% [2][1] Refining Sector Summary - Despite a temporary boost in market risk appetite due to the suspension of Trump tariffs, OPEC+ plans to increase production in July, putting downward pressure on international oil prices [1] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices as of June 6, 2025, are 66.47 USD/barrel and 64.58 USD/barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.57 USD/barrel and 3.79 USD/barrel compared to May 30, 2025 [1] - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly increased, while overseas refined oil prices have also seen some upward movement [1] Chemical Sector Summary - The report notes that the recent fluctuations in oil prices have had a weak guiding effect on chemical product prices, primarily due to weak supply and demand dynamics [1] - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices have shown fluctuations, with price spreads declining [1] - The report highlights that the price of EVA has decreased, with transactions primarily focused on essential spot purchases [1] Polyester Sector Summary - Polyester raw material prices have slightly decreased, with improvements in the profitability of filament products [1] - PX prices have seen a slight decline due to increased production from previously reduced capacity and adequate raw material inventory at downstream factories [1] - The report indicates that the average price of PTA is 4857.14 CNY/ton, with an average net profit of -151.35 CNY/ton [84][1] Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of June 6, 2025, the stock price changes for six major private refining companies are as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (-0.23%), Hengli Petrochemical (-1.12%), Dongfang Shenghong (-1.06%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-0.16%), Tongkun Co. (+0.28%), and Xin Fengming (+1.10%) [1][106] - Over the past month, stock price changes include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+3.95%), Hengli Petrochemical (-2.03%), Dongfang Shenghong (-4.55%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-0.49%), Tongkun Co. (-0.18%), and Xin Fengming (+2.04%) [1][106]