Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rebound due to the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to lead to actual production cuts and improve coal prices. The analysis is based on the mean reversion of return on equity (ROE) and the reasonable profit distribution levels of thermal coal and coking coal within their respective industrial chains [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Introduction - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed significant increases in coal commodities and equity prices. The report highlights the importance of understanding the future space for coal under this policy, particularly following the State Energy Administration's notice regarding coal mine production inspections [6][18] ROE Perspective - The report calculates the expected central price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on historical average ROE. The central price for thermal coal is estimated at 749 CNY/ton, which is 96 CNY/ton higher than the price of 653 CNY/ton on July 25, 2025 (+14.7%). For coking coal, the central price is estimated at 1838 CNY/ton, which is 158 CNY/ton higher than the July 25 price of 1680 CNY/ton (+9.4%) [6][34][35] Industry Chain Perspective - The report assesses the reasonable price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on profit distribution in the coal-electricity and coal-steel industrial chains. It estimates that the reasonable price for thermal coal could be between 776 CNY/ton and 835 CNY/ton, reflecting potential increases of 18.9% and 27.9% respectively from current prices. For coking coal, the reasonable price could range from 1707 CNY/ton to 2094 CNY/ton, with corresponding increases of 1.6% to 24.7% [7][44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that there is still room for price-to-book (PB) mean reversion, indicating a favorable investment ratio for coal stocks. It recommends focusing on short-term rebounds and long-term reversal opportunities in the coal sector. Specific stock recommendations include: 1. Elastic stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International 2. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical 3. Transition growth stocks: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [8][50][52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Daniao Logistics for a cash consideration of 362 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its volume and revenue scale, pushing the company to become the third largest in the industry [2][6]. - This acquisition is seen as a model for supply-side reform in the express delivery industry and a significant step towards high-quality development [2]. - The acquisition is anticipated to leverage synergies, improve logistics capabilities, and create a differentiated competitive advantage [2]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary intends to acquire Daniao Logistics from its current shareholders, with a transaction price of 362 million yuan [6]. Financial Overview of Daniao Logistics - Daniao Logistics reported revenues of 12.35 billion yuan in 2024 and 2.96 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, with net profits of 20 million yuan and a loss of 230 million yuan respectively [13]. - The acquisition is priced at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.6X, which is lower than the company's PB of 2.4X, indicating a strategic acquisition at a discount [12]. Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to optimize the company's product structure and drive supply-side reform in the industry [12]. - Daniao Logistics' established quality logistics network is anticipated to enhance the company's service capabilities and brand influence [12]. - The company aims to tap into high-end markets and expand into new delivery scenarios, thereby enriching its product offerings [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests capitalizing on the "anti-involution" opportunities, with expectations of improved profitability and valuation recovery in the sector [12]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.41 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.83 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.5, 14.4, and 12.7 [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Insights - The current round of supply-side optimization in the steel industry emphasizes the "supporting the strong and eliminating the weak" approach, indicating that underperforming capacities should be limited while leading companies are expected to strengthen [2][6] - The market sentiment has significantly improved with the deepening of the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a positive signal of "volume and price linkage" in the steel market [4] - The report highlights that the execution of the "anti-involution" policy may be smoother compared to previous years due to the absence of large-scale stimulus measures, suggesting a gradual improvement in the industry's long-term trends despite short-term fluctuations [2][6] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 1.03% year-on-year and 0.36% month-on-month, while the average daily transaction volume of construction steel increased by 2.10 thousand tons per day compared to the previous week [4] - The average daily pig iron output of sample steel companies decreased to 2.4223 million tons, a decline of 0.21 thousand tons per day [4] - Total steel inventory decreased by 0.14% month-on-month and 24.22% year-on-year, with long product inventory down by 27.40% year-on-year and plate inventory down by 17.74% year-on-year [4] Price and Profitability - Shanghai rebar prices rose to 3,450 RMB/ton, an increase of 180 RMB/ton, while hot-rolled prices reached 3,520 RMB/ton, up 160 RMB/ton [5] - The estimated profit for rebar is 238 RMB/ton, with a lagging cost profit of 495 RMB/ton [5] - The report suggests that with the support of the "anti-involution" policy and strong determination to curb deflation risks, steel prices may show an upward trend that is easier to rise than to fall [4] Elasticity and Valuation - The report calculates the elasticity of steel stocks based on the assumption that the average net profit per ton of listed steel companies could rise to 200/300/400 RMB/ton, compared to 56 RMB/ton in Q1 2025 [6] - Companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and CITIC Special Steel are identified as having significant elasticity [6] - The report emphasizes that if the valuation of steel stocks returns to historical averages, it could indicate strong investment opportunities, particularly for companies with low price-to-book (PB) ratios [6][32] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from the release of new capacities in iron ore and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Hualing Steel [32] 2. Steel stocks with low PB ratios that may experience significant performance and valuation recovery, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [32] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform theme, which could enhance asset quality and subsequent valuation recovery [33] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource leaders, particularly in specialized fields, are also highlighted as worthy of attention [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9]. Core Insights - Alphabet's Q2 2025 financial results show revenue of $96.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, and a net profit of $28.2 billion, up 19.4% [2][6]. - The company's capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for the year has been raised by $10 billion to $85 billion, with Q2 Capex reaching $22.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31% [6][10]. - Strong demand in the cloud business is evidenced by a backlog of orders reaching $106 billion, with significant growth in high-value contracts [10]. - The monthly average token usage for AI applications has doubled from 48 trillion in May to 98 trillion, indicating explosive growth in AI product engagement [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Alphabet reported Q2 2025 revenue of $96.43 billion, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $28.2 billion, up 19.4% [2][10]. - Google Services generated $82.5 billion in revenue, a 12% increase, while Google Cloud revenue reached $13.62 billion, growing 32% with a significant operating profit increase [10]. Cloud Business Insights - Google Cloud's operating profit surged to $2.83 billion, a 141% year-on-year increase, with a profit margin of 20.7%, up 9.4 percentage points [10]. - The number of new customers for Google Cloud Platform (GCP) increased by nearly 28% quarter-on-quarter, with high-value orders (over $2.5 billion) doubling year-on-year [10]. AI Developments - Monthly token processing for AI applications increased from 48 trillion in May to 98 trillion, marking a 100% growth [10]. - The Gemini application has reached 450 million monthly active users, with a 50% increase in daily requests compared to Q1 [10]. Capital Expenditure and Industry Trends - Alphabet's capital expenditure for 2025 has been revised to $85 billion, with Q2 spending at $22.4 billion [6][10]. - Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle, are significantly increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, indicating a competitive arms race in the North American cloud market [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, leading to a comprehensive rise in metal prices, particularly strategic metals [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metals and bottom energy metal allocation opportunities, highlighting the revaluation of rare earths and tungsten [4] - The report suggests that the domestic growth stabilization and anti-involution policies are enhancing expectations, which is driving up domestic commodity prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases expected due to government focus and international supply chain developments [4] - The price of rare earth concentrate has increased to 19,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4] - Tungsten prices are also on the rise, supported by strong supply dynamics and improving company performance [4] Energy Metals - The report indicates a high probability of short-term price increases for cobalt, with a significant drop in imports noted [4] - Cobalt intermediate imports in June fell to 18,991 tons, a decrease of 61.6% month-on-month [4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term price expectations likely to rise [4] Lithium - The report notes a bottoming out of lithium prices, with recent regulatory changes indicating stricter domestic mining controls [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded by 15.2% to 76 CNY/kg [24] - The report suggests monitoring potential resource releases in the lithium sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are fluctuating due to improved risk appetite and easing trade tensions, with a recommendation to increase allocation to precious metal stocks [4][6] - The report highlights that gold stocks have underperformed, suggesting a strategic buying opportunity [4] - Silver is noted for its potential upside, with a recommendation to consider silver stocks for recovery [4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are experiencing mixed performance, with domestic prices leading international trends [5][6] - Copper prices on the SHFE increased by 1.1%, while aluminum prices rose by 1.2% [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on metal demand [6]

Group 1: Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 1.8% year-on-year[6] - In June, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises improved to -4.3%, compared to -6.5% in May[7] - The automotive industry significantly influenced the profit growth, contributing 4.35 percentage points to the overall industrial profit increase in June[7] Group 2: Revenue Insights - June's industrial enterprises' revenue growth rebounded to 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a marginal improvement[7] - Export demand continues to support revenue growth, particularly in electronics, automotive, electrical machinery, and non-ferrous metallurgy sectors[7] - Despite strong revenue growth, profit contributions from exports remain limited, with the electronics sector experiencing negative profit growth in June[7] Group 3: Inventory and Operational Challenges - As of the end of June, the nominal growth rate of finished goods inventory decreased to 3.1%, but actual inventory growth remained high at 7.0%[7] - The difficulty in inventory reduction persists, with the inventory-to-sales ratio remaining elevated since last year's third quarter[7] - Although there is a slight improvement in operational pressure, the overall business environment remains challenging for enterprises[7] Group 4: Policy Implications - Attention is drawn to the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, which may influence profit recovery for enterprises[7] - The potential for upstream price increases could alleviate some profit pressure on industrial enterprises, but the ability of downstream firms to pass on costs remains uncertain[7] - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July may provide further guidance on the direction of profit recovery policies[7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Insights - The heavy stockholding ratio of public funds in the utility sector increased to 1.08% in Q2 2025, up by 0.13 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a recovery in sector allocation [2][6] - The allocation percentage is at the 41.9th percentile historically, while the industry benchmark allocation is 2.72%, resulting in an underweight of -1.64% [2][6] - In the electricity sector, the holding ratios for thermal, hydropower, nuclear, and renewable energy generation are 33.18%, 52.73%, 3.54%, and 10.43% respectively, with changes of -7.65 percentage points, +5.62 percentage points, +0.26 percentage points, and +1.72 percentage points [2][6] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The thermal power sector continues to see a decline in holdings, with major companies like Huadian International and Zhejiang Energy facing reductions, while others like Guodian Power and Datang Power have seen marginal increases due to their relatively low valuations [6][26] - The overall decline is attributed to several factors, including the timing of dividend payouts and a shift in market preferences towards high-growth sectors [26][27] Hydropower - Despite less rainfall nationwide, core hydropower assets have shown stable growth due to superior dispatch capabilities [7][37] - The valuation of hydropower has become attractive, with significant increases in holdings for companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power, reflecting market preference for core assets [7][37] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector has seen a notable recovery in holdings, driven by improved market sentiment and attractive valuations after a prolonged adjustment period [8][44] - The implementation of new regulations has alleviated concerns regarding long-term pricing and returns, signaling the start of a recovery cycle for the sector [8][44] Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector's holdings increased to 3.54%, reflecting a recovery as previous pessimistic expectations have been fully priced in [9][44] - The long-term value of nuclear power remains solid despite short-term price fluctuations [9][44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company's electricity generation volume in Q2 2025 decreased by 4.54% year-on-year, primarily due to the strategy of generating "beneficial" electricity based on the electricity spot market conditions. The wind power generation was also impacted, with a 17.00% year-on-year decrease in Q2 [2][6]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 10.772 billion kWh and a revenue of 6.369 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.44%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.48% year-on-year to 1.337 billion yuan [6]. - The company has a robust project reserve and is expected to benefit from the resumption of approvals for offshore wind projects in Fujian, indicating potential for long-term growth and investment value [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.272 billion yuan, down 8.54% year-on-year, and a net profit of 585 million yuan, down 11.65% year-on-year [2][6]. - The total electricity generation for the company in Q2 was 5.433 billion kWh, with a significant contribution from coal-fired power, which generated 4.458 billion kWh, a decrease of 4.54% year-on-year [12]. Market Conditions - The coal price has shown a downward trend, with the average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal at 631.61 yuan/ton in Q2, down 216.84 yuan/ton year-on-year, which helps alleviate some cost pressures [12]. - Wind conditions in Fujian province were weaker in Q2, leading to a 17.00% decrease in wind power generation, with offshore wind generation down 15.96% and onshore wind down 18.45% [12]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its share buyback program, having already repurchased 199 million yuan worth of shares, signaling confidence in its long-term value [12]. - The company has six projects approved or under construction, including three pumped storage projects and two combined heat and power projects, which are expected to enhance growth potential [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry [14]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the passenger car market has slowed down since 2025, with a focus on opportunities for growth in the second half of the year due to key new vehicle launches [5][12]. - The total market volume from January to May 2025 reached 8.48 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with a NEV penetration rate of 49.5%, up 2.5 percentage points from 2024 [8][26]. Summary by Relevant Sections Low-End Market (Below 80,000 Yuan) - The low-end market saw a total volume of 930,000 units from January to May 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 68%, with a NEV penetration rate nearing 75% [9][33]. - The market's small scale and high penetration base limit its contribution to the overall market's NEV penetration rate [9][33]. Mid-Range Market (80,000 to 250,000 Yuan) - The mid-range market had a total volume of 5.25 million units from January to May 2025, showing a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, with a NEV penetration rate of 43.0%, up 1.6 percentage points from 2024 [10][53]. - The decline in NEV penetration rate is attributed to price reductions by joint venture brands, which have affected the market dynamics [10][57]. High-End Market (Above 250,000 Yuan) - The high-end market recorded a total volume of 2.06 million units from January to May 2025, a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with a NEV penetration rate of 53.3%, up 2.0 percentage points from 2024 [11][59]. - The slowdown in NEV penetration is due to price reductions among luxury brands and the maturity of popular models from domestic brands, with significant new vehicle launches expected in the second half of the year [11][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong intelligent driving vehicles as a key opportunity in the new cycle of the automotive industry [12]. - It also highlights the potential for leading manufacturers that have seen their market share drop due to joint venture price cuts [12]. - Additionally, there is optimism regarding structural growth in NEV exports despite a general slowdown in overall export growth [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the transportation industry saw a 0.32 percentage point increase in the proportion of public fund heavy holdings, reaching 2.01%, primarily driven by the logistics and supply chain sector [2][5]. - The number of heavily held stocks in the transportation sector increased to 66, with a total market value of 25.93 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.1% quarter-on-quarter increase [5]. - The logistics and supply chain sector's allocation increased significantly, while other sub-sectors experienced a decrease in allocation [5][6]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - The transportation sector's heavy holding ratio is 2.01%, up from the previous period, and ranks 14th among 32 primary industries, indicating a low allocation status [5]. - The logistics and supply chain sector saw a significant increase in allocation, while the aviation, railway, and maritime sectors experienced reductions [5][6]. Heavy Holdings - The top five heavily held stocks in the transportation sector accounted for 67.5% of the total market value of heavy holdings, up from 54.5% in Q1 2025 [6]. - SF Express continues to attract significant institutional interest, with the number of funds holding it increasing to 163, reflecting a strong upward trend in its business performance [6][25]. Northbound Capital - Northbound capital holdings in the transportation sector increased to 5.91%, with express delivery being the largest segment at 190 billion yuan, accounting for 33.9% of the sector [7][31]. - The airport, railway, and shipping sectors saw the highest increases in northbound capital holdings, indicating a positive sentiment towards these segments [7][34].