证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 27 日 保利发展（600048.SH） 营收承压，存量土地置换助力拿地力度提高 周期/房地产 25H1 公司实现归母净利润 27 亿元，同比下降 63.5%，与业绩快报基本一致， 判断公司后续营收增长或承压，结转毛利率或仍在筑底阶段；销售排名保持行 业第一，增量项目销售占比提升，投资端拿地力度提高；多措并举盘活存量资 源，"调转换退"取得一定进展；融资成本持续下降，直融占比提升，成功发行 国内首单现金类定向可转债；资产经营稳步发展，物业服务规模持续扩大。预计 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.36、0.38 和 0.53 元，认为公司具备穿越周期的能 力，若行业右侧出现其仍是竞争格局改善的核心受益标的，且随着公司逐步盘 活存量资源，市场对公司减值压力的担忧或有望缓释，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 q 25H1 公司实现归母净利润 27 亿元，同比下降 63.5%，与业绩快报基本一致， 判断公司后续营收增长或承压，结转毛利率或仍在筑底阶段。公司 25H1 营 收/营业利润/归母净利分别为 1169 亿/98 亿/27 亿，同比分别-16.1%/-29 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 27 日 成都银行（601838.SH） 存贷增速高，资产质量优 总量研究/银行 成都银行披露 2025 年半年报，2025H1 营收、PPOP、归母利润同比增速分别 为 5.91%、6.84%、7.29%。从累计业绩驱动来看，25H1 规模扩张、其他非息、 成本收入比下降形成正贡献，净息差和中收形成拖累。单季度环比来看，25Q2 净息差对业绩拖累程度大幅下降，中收拖累成都有所增加，拨备贡献由正转负。 核心观点： 亮点：（1）存贷高增，资负结构改善。资产端，25Q2 末，公司总资产规模同 比增长 14.32%，增速环比回升 1.07pct，其中贷款同比增速高达 17.96%，环比 回升 1.05pct，在行业整体信贷增速放缓的趋势下实属难得。分业务来看，对公 贷款为基本盘，25Q2 末同比增长 15.62%，增速环比有所回落，但依旧高位； 零售端积极打造"成行消贷"特色品牌，个人消费贷款同比增长 26.13%，个人 住房贷款也实现了 11.67%的稳健增长，带动总的个人贷款实现了 12.85%的高 增速。另外，财政扩张下公司投资类资产规模上半年同比增长 ...

❑ 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、原材料成本上升、新品拓展不及预期。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 27 日 农夫山泉（09633.HK） 盈利能力强化，继续看好龙头份额提升 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 公司实现营收/归母净利润 256.2 亿元/76.2 亿元， 同比+15.6%/+22.2%，25H1 公司净利润略超预期，盈利能力强化彰显龙头品牌 力。公司瓶装水业务份额有望加速恢复，中长期品牌、渠道能力领先。东方树 叶渗透率仍有提升，预计 26 年渠道数量仍有 5%-10%增长空间，份额有望继续 提升，中期维度有望成长为 200 亿级别单品。同时公司在咖啡、碳酸茶、植物 饮料方面均前瞻性布局，有望打造第二增长曲线。7-8 月动销数据持续验证，继 续看好龙头份额提升。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 42667 | 42896 | 50703 | 58296 | 65583 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for H&H International Holdings [11] Core Views - H&H International Holdings reported a revenue increase of 4.9% year-on-year for H1 2025, with adjusted comparable net profit rising by 4.6%, aligning with previous guidance [11] - The company is expanding its ANC business through online channels and overseas markets, solidifying its industry-leading position, while the BNC business is improving with a rise in ultra-premium infant formula market share [11] - Despite pressure on apparent profits, the company is optimizing its capital structure, which is expected to accelerate debt reduction in the future [11] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.019 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and an adjusted comparable net profit of 363 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [5][11] - The adjusted EBITDA for H1 2025 was 1.101 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.7% [5][11] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.19 HKD per share, totaling 109 million yuan [5] Business Segment Performance - ANC business grew by 5.0% year-on-year in H1 2025, with significant growth in the Chinese mainland market, particularly through the Swisse brand [5][11] - BNC business saw a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with the ultra-premium infant formula market share reaching a historical high of 15.9% in the Chinese mainland [5][11] - PNC business reported a 9.6% year-on-year increase, with improved profitability driven by margin enhancements [5][11] Future Outlook - The company expects continued growth in the second half of 2025, with Swisse focusing on product innovation and online channel expansion [6][11] - The BNC segment is anticipated to benefit from the transition to new national standards and the ongoing recovery in infant formula sales [6][11] - PNC is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, particularly in the North American market [6][11] Financial Projections - EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 0.56, 1.03, and 1.26 yuan respectively [11] - The company’s total revenue is expected to reach 14.083 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [7][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.707 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.02%, but a comparable growth of 23.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 218 million yuan, down 34.66% year-on-year, but up 6.54% on a comparable basis [1][7]. - The company is focusing on developing integrated communication capabilities and edge intelligent computing solutions, showcasing strong operational resilience and strategic execution during a transitional phase [7]. - Significant advancements in AI and robotics applications have been made, with multiple innovative solutions launched, including the Fibocom AI Stack and various AI-driven products [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2023 is 7.716 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37%. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 564 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 55% [2][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.70 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 45.9 [2][12]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 24.7 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 17.2 billion yuan [3]. Business Development - The company has been actively enhancing its product line in AI, edge computing, and robotics, with a focus on commercial applications and partnerships with leading firms in the field [7]. - The establishment of the AIC product line in 2023 and the expected mass delivery of intelligent robotic solutions in 2024 indicate a strong growth trajectory in the robotics sector [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [5][9]. Core Views - The company has achieved a record high net profit for a single quarter, driven by the recovery of its main business and expansion into new markets [1]. - The excavator industry continues to recover, with the company benefiting from increased demand for hydraulic components [2]. - The company's profitability is steadily improving due to structural optimization and ongoing cost reduction efforts [3]. - The company is enhancing its overseas presence and has made significant progress in new product development [4]. Summary by Sections Company Growth Prospects - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 5.171 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net profit of 1.429 billion yuan, up 10.97% [1]. - The excavator industry saw total sales of 120,500 units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.77%, with domestic sales up 22.9% and exports up 10.19% [2]. Profitability Improvement - The company achieved a gross margin of 41.85% and a net margin of 27.7% in the first half of 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.33 percentage points and 1.01 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [3]. - Cost management measures have been implemented across various areas, supporting profitability [3]. Overseas Expansion and New Product Development - The company has successfully launched its largest overseas production base in Mexico and is actively participating in international exhibitions [4]. - The company has developed over 50 new products as part of its electrification strategy, with all new products successfully entering the market [4]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 10.478 billion yuan, 12.158 billion yuan, and 14.170 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 12%, 16%, and 17% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.762 billion yuan, 3.255 billion yuan, and 3.837 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10%, 18%, and 18% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company's Q2 revenue and profit decreased by 10.4% and 36.3% year-on-year, respectively, due to weak demand, intensified competition, and product adjustments, leading to a challenging operational performance [6] - For H2, the company aims to innovate new products in dried fish and bean products, accelerate the offline promotion of its egg brand "Seven Doctors," and enhance the promotion of anchovy products across multiple channels, with expectations for improved revenue and profit margins [6] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 260 million, 300 million, and 350 million, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.57, 0.67, and 0.78 yuan, maintaining a 20x PE for 2026 [6] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.124 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 112 million yuan, down 21.86% year-on-year [6][7] - The Q2 revenue breakdown shows that fish products, poultry products, bean products, and vegetable products generated revenues of 757 million, 196 million, 115 million, and 34 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +7.61%, -24.00%, +3.61%, and -10.69% [6] - The company's gross margin for Q2 was 28.93%, down 1.83 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material prices and low capacity utilization [6] Market Position and Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of the company is 6 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 4 billion yuan [2] - The major shareholder, Zhou Jinsong, holds a 38.22% stake in the company [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the gaming industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][6]. Core Insights - In August 2025, a total of 173 game licenses were issued, with 166 being domestic and 7 imported, marking a significant increase in the number of licenses issued compared to the same period in 2024 [1][6]. - The report highlights key games that received approval, including titles from major companies such as Tencent, NetEase, and Bilibili, which are expected to contribute positively to their respective revenues [6]. - The issuance of game licenses has been stable and consistent throughout 2025, with a total of 1,050 domestic and 69 imported licenses issued so far this year, reflecting a strong recovery in the gaming market [6]. Industry Overview - The gaming industry is characterized by a total of 160 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 2,014.6 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,832.2 billion [3]. - The absolute performance of the industry has shown a significant increase of 75.8% over the past 12 months, indicating strong growth potential [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing success of established games and the potential for new releases to drive revenue growth, particularly for companies like Tencent and Giant Network [6].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 DeepSeek 更新 V3.1 版本, 快手 AI 业务收入持续增长 传媒互联网行业周报 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 近期我们继续坚定推荐各个细分行业龙头公司，我们继续坚定看好【神州泰岳】 【南方传媒】【分众传媒】【完美世界】【恺英网络】【巨人网络】【腾讯控 股】【昆仑万维】【中国科传】【芒果超媒】【哔哩哔哩】【中文在线】等 ❑ 过去一周，传媒行业整体上涨 5.82%，在所有行业中排名第 4 位。自年初以 来，传媒板块累计上涨 30.14%，在所有板块中位列第 4 名。近期市场中科 技与 AI 板块持续表现活跃，TMT 领域呈现轮动上涨态势。特别是随着 DS （DeepSeek）新模型的发布，国产算力迎来再次上涨。值得注意的是， DeepSeek 近期更新了 V3.1 版本，并表示其使用的 UE8M0 FP8 Scale 参数 精度是针对即将发布的下一代国产芯片设计。该更新不仅带动了国产算力的 表现，有望在未来进一步促进大模型与国产芯片的适配。同时，公司官方公 众号明确指出：通过 Post-Training 优化，新模型在工具使用与智能体任务 中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][9]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant profit elasticity, with a notable increase in global competitiveness [1]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 44.78 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.64%, and a net profit of 5.216 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing shareholder returns and plans to issue H shares to strengthen capital vitality [3][7]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 27.44% and a net margin of 11.87% in the first half of 2025, with a significant reduction in expense ratios [2]. - Operating cash flow reached 10.134 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.11% increase year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow management [2]. - Capital expenditures decreased by 42.82% year-on-year to 999 million yuan, as the company shifts focus towards refined management upgrades [2]. Market Position and Growth - The excavator industry saw a total sales volume of 120,500 units in the first half of 2025, with the company benefiting from a robust domestic and international demand [6]. - The company holds the leading position in the excavator market, with a revenue of 17.497 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year [6]. - The company has established a comprehensive global market channel system, enhancing its international competitiveness [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 90.074 billion yuan, 105.922 billion yuan, and 127.014 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 15%, 18%, and 20% respectively [9]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 9.168 billion yuan, 11.529 billion yuan, and 14.552 billion yuan, with growth rates of 53%, 26%, and 26% respectively [9]. - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 19.9, 15.8, and 12.5 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9].