Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 6.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 381 million yuan, up 189.07% year-on-year [1]. - The price of glyphosate is expected to bottom out and recover, as the market shows signs of demand improvement despite a generally oversupplied market [6]. - The company has successfully launched a new production capacity for refined glyphosate, which is anticipated to increase market concentration in the pesticide industry [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the average market price of glyphosate was 44,900 yuan/ton, down 20.0% year-on-year, while the price of 50% refined glyphosate mother liquor fell 29.2% to 64,900 yuan/ton [6]. - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 18.42%, an increase of 2.08 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased by 2.57 percentage points to 9.58% [6]. - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 491 million, 644 million, and 882 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.61, 0.80, and 1.10 yuan [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is the largest domestic producer of chlorinated pyridine herbicides and has a significant production capacity for glyphosate and refined glyphosate [6]. - The successful launch of a 20,000-ton/year enzymatic refined glyphosate project is expected to enhance the company's market position [6]. - New policies aimed at standardizing the pesticide market are expected to improve the quality and compliance of raw materials, potentially leading to a higher market concentration [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with revenue of 13.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.374 billion yuan, up 23.43% year-on-year [1]. - The company has strengthened its profitability, with a comprehensive gross margin of 18.19% for the first three quarters, an increase of 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the compound fertilizer industry, benefiting from an integrated supply chain and a strong market position [7]. - Future growth potential is significant due to the rigid demand for compound fertilizers, especially in the context of national food security [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 17.25 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [2]. - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 1.633 billion yuan, reflecting a 24% increase year-on-year [2]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 11.1 for 2025, decreasing to 9.0 by 2027 [2][14]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 18.1 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 16.5 billion yuan [3]. Performance Metrics - The company reported a net profit of 4.22 billion yuan in Q3, a 12.52% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 20.14%, up 3.95 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 13.6% [3].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 10 月 26 日 中美会谈及特朗普亚洲之行 ——国际时政周评 回顾：中美第五轮经贸磋商；特朗普亚洲之行；美欧出台对俄新制裁。 未来一周：中美会谈及特朗普亚洲访问；美国内政及关税；地缘冲突。 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1）中美第五轮经贸会谈形成了初步共识；特朗普亚洲之行开启，将访问马 来西亚、日本、韩国。1）此轮中美经贸谈判前，随着双方释放信号，市 场对贸易政策担忧缓解。同时，高市早苗当选日本首相，助推市场宽松 财政预期；特朗普即将访问日本、韩国，市场对贸易投资谈判进展预期 上抬。本周纳斯达克综指上涨 2.3%、日经指数上涨 3.6%、韩国综指上 涨 5.1%。2）谈判前市场对此轮中美互动预期已偏积极。预期本次会谈 的成果或主要体现在：框架性成果，包括管控分歧、一定程度上改善关 系、增加共识；美方或试图在关税与农产品采购议题、战略议题（非关 税壁垒、战略资源等）的实际执行层面获得成果。后续高层互动或以寻 求政治层面共识为主。风险：大国科技博弈持续，未来深层 ...

资产方面，1）目前标普 500CAPE 已高达 40.58 倍，2000 年纳斯达克泡沫破 灭前为 44.19 倍。后续美股大约有两条路径：①短期调整 10-20%倒逼美联储 更为宽松，牛市延续到明年底；②短期加速泡沫化，明年中转熊。若是前者， 需要警惕近期对国内权益的连带负面影响。2）2026 年有望迎来猪油共振下的 中国通胀回升：2013 年以来猪肉价格仅三个时段跌破 18 元/公斤；美国再度 补充战略石油储备表明目前油价处于偏低水位。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《财政进入年末集中发力期 ——2025 年 9 月财政数据点 评》2025-10-18 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 10 月 26 日 猪油共振或可计入 2026 年的通胀假设 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）四中全会确认了"十五五"规划的主要方向仍是科技。"十五 五"进入关键期，初期快速跨过中等收入陷阱，中期形成国内国际双循环的闭 环，后期在人民币国际化层面形成历史性突破。2）回到短期，"十五五"需 要开门红，中美会谈后国内阶段性重心或重回稳增长。3）10 月 10 日以来国 内流动性进一步宽松，除非降息否则流 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 26 日 金徽酒（603919.SH） Q3 经营质量稳健，税率上升影响净利 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 2025 年三季报，公司Q3 收入/归母净利润分别同比-4.9%/-33.0%， 收入符合预期，利润受所得税率上升拖累。公司持续推动产品结构提升，300 元以上高端产品将作为重点，目前渠道库存 2 个月内合理水平。展望 Q4 及明 年，公司加大省内薄弱区域开拓，聚焦中高端价格带，持续推进用户工程建设， 省外聚焦优质区域，加大西北市场投入，费用率通过精准管控预计未来小幅下 降。我们预计 25-27 年 EPS 分别为 0.73、0.79、0.88 元，对应 26 年 25xPE 估值，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、动销不及预期、产能释放不及预期、成本上涨 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2548 | 3021 | 2995 | 3186 | 3399 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [32]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 3.0% from October 19 to October 25, 2025, with significant growth in various segments, particularly in automotive parts and services [2][11]. - The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was released, outlining six major goals for the automotive industry by 2040, with 2025 marking a critical starting point for China's automotive industry to become a global leader [24][25]. - The volume of applications for the vehicle replacement subsidy program exceeded 10 million, with over 340 million applications for scrapping and more than 660 million for replacement, significantly stimulating domestic demand and promoting green transformation in transportation [26]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's secondary segments saw notable increases, with automotive parts and services rising by 4.0% and 3.9%, respectively, while commercial vehicles also showed a 3.0% increase [11]. - Individual stocks within the automotive sector mostly rose, with notable gainers including Biao Bang Co. (+23.2%), Ao Lian Electronics (+18.3%), and Qingdao Double Star (+16.6%) [15]. Industry Dynamics - Key developments include the official announcement of the Xiaopeng X9 super range extender targeting the global market, and the successful delivery of over 40,000 units of the Lynk & Co 900 model within five months of its launch [24][26]. - Companies like SAIC Group are investing in multiple tech firms to enhance their smart electric vehicle ecosystem, while GAC and Huawei are set to launch a new brand's first model in mid-2026 [28][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and JAC Motors, while also keeping an eye on key partners like BAIC Blue Valley and Changan Automobile [2][11]. - In the commercial vehicle segment, recommended stocks include Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Weichai Power, while in the parts sector, companies like Fuyao Glass and Xingyu Automotive are highlighted for their cost and product advantages [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6][7] Core Views - The company has shown signs of performance stabilization with a year-on-year increase in product output and sales in the third quarter, indicating a potential turning point in its financial performance [1][6] - The polyurethane industry demand remains stable, particularly in the new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors, driven by the lightweight requirements of electric vehicles [6][7] - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, estimating revenues of 191.17 billion yuan, 219.85 billion yuan, and 241.83 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 144.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.29% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.157 billion yuan, down 17.45% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 53.3 billion yuan, an increase of 5.52% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.035 billion yuan, up 3.96% year-on-year [1][6] - The company’s production of polyurethane products reached 1.56 million tons in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, while sales increased by 10% [6][7] Price and Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 61.45 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 192.4 billion yuan [2] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 4.17 yuan, 4.29 yuan, and 4.89 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.7, 14.3, and 12.6 [6][7][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting long-term investment value [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from new consumption patterns and structural changes, driven by the emphasis on technological self-reliance and new productive forces [1]. - A significant adjustment in gold prices is viewed as a technical correction, with the long-term upward trend remaining intact [1]. - The report emphasizes that the narrative surrounding non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, remains strong, with resource stocks trading at historically low price-to-earnings ratios, presenting attractive valuation opportunities [1]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 236 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 5,951.5 billion [2]. - The sector's performance over different time frames shows an absolute return of 7.3% over one month, 47.1% over six months, and 55.0% over twelve months [3]. - The report identifies key metals to focus on, including copper, gold, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, tungsten, uranium, and antimony [1]. Market Dynamics - Copper inventories in major regions increased by 0.41 thousand tons to 181.6 thousand tons, while total inventories decreased by 3.8 thousand tons compared to the previous year [3]. - The report notes a significant supply disruption in cobalt due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a tightening of global supply and increased prices [3]. - The aluminum market is experiencing a decline in inventories, with a notable reduction in production capacity due to unexpected cutbacks in major aluminum plants [4]. Price Trends - Cobalt prices increased by 3.7% this week, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors [3]. - Silver prices fell by 6.65% due to a stronger dollar and rising real interest rates, which diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices showed a slight increase, reflecting robust demand in the battery and energy storage markets [4]. Strategic Focus - The report suggests a focus on companies involved in new materials related to technological advancements, particularly in nuclear fusion and lithium battery production [5]. - It highlights the strategic importance of rare earth elements and their potential for price appreciation in the medium to long term [5].

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 10 月 26 日 纵横股份（688070.SH） 工业无人机龙头，抢抓市场机遇深耕低空数字经济 TMT 及中小盘/电子 公司作为我国工业无人机领域的龙头企业，长期专注于无人机硬件平台、飞行 控制系统与行业应用软件的研发与服务体系构建，并积极掘金低空数字经济新 业务，打造企业第二增长曲线。随着国内工业无人机产业规模持续扩大，叠加 低空经济政策红利加速释放，公司有望充分受益于行业高景气度，业绩或将迎 来快速增长。 增持（首次） | 财务数据与估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | ❑ 工业无人机龙头企业，产品谱系齐全奠定成长基石。纵横股份深耕工业无人 机多年，技术研发优势突出。公司无人机全产业链布局协同发展，产品谱系 完善，可针对不同客户的不同应用场景快速形成合适的解决方案。分产品看： ➢ CW 系列复合翼无人机：国内率先发布并量产垂直起降固定翼工业无 人机，开发多年产品竞争优势突出，近年进一步推出 CW-4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 858 million yuan, up 1.18% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 32.70 million yuan, down 29.15% [6]. - The revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025 was attributed to an increase in product variety and sales, despite a decline in net profit due to lower product prices and reduced government subsidies [6]. - The acquisition of Bomi Technology is progressing positively, which is expected to enhance the company's growth potential in the future [6]. - The company is well-positioned in the rubber additive sector, benefiting from industry upgrades and a shift towards value innovation [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.79%, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 13.60% [6]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 17.73%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q3 was 15.70%, down 1.96 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of 3.49 billion, 3.83 billion, and 4.24 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 197 million, 233 million, and 282 million yuan [7][9]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a leading position in the global market for certain rubber additives, with a market share of over 60% for its anti-scorching agent CTP [6]. - The company is one of the few that has mastered the industrialization technology for insoluble sulfur, holding the largest market share domestically [6]. - The company has established strong relationships with well-known clients in the semiconductor and LCD panel industries, providing a competitive edge [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from industry upgrades and a reduction in price competition, leading to an increase in market share and improved financial performance [6][7]. - The expected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 36.6, 30.9, and 25.5, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's valuation [7].