Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the stability in the production volume of Moutai and the cyclical layout of food products [1][15]. Core Insights - Moutai's production volume for 2026 is set to remain stable, with a focus on balancing supply and demand, and a shift from production-driven to sales-driven strategies [2][11]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics compared to 2025, driven by emerging channels stimulating consumer demand for alcoholic beverages [1][15]. - The dairy sector is expected to see a turning point in milk prices, with leading dairy companies projected to experience performance recovery and increased valuation support in 2026 [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic planning and product innovation among key companies to navigate market challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities [12][14]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Moutai aims to enhance the market share of its 500ml Flying Moutai while reducing the production of high-value products and focusing on a diversified sales network [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao maintains a restrained pricing strategy for its Guojiao product, anticipating Q1 2026 as a critical adjustment period for the industry [12]. - Shouxiangu is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of over 20% from 2026 to 2030, with a focus on major products and channels [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on Moutai and other key brands for the upcoming Spring Festival, with recommendations for stocks like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao due to their potential for rebound [15][16]. - Attention is drawn to consumer goods companies such as Weidong and Angel Yeast, which are expected to benefit from cost advantages and cyclical performance improvements [16]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: improving sales volume, cyclical opportunities, and cost benefits across various companies in the sector [16]. Industry Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating market capitalizations and projected earnings for 2025 to 2027, showcasing the financial health and growth potential of major players in the industry [17][19].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 成都华微（688709.SH） TSN 技术积累深厚，或享受商业航天市场爆发 中游制造/军工 2025 年 12 月，成都华微协办第十四次"枫林论坛"，以"时间敏感网络（TSN） 系统设计"为主题，汇聚了来自科研院所、高校、企业及行业媒体等专家学者， 围绕 TSN 展开了深度交流与探讨。公司现场展示了最新的 TSN 系统级板卡及 FPGA 系列核心产品。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：47.18 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 637 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 218 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 30.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 10.3 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 4.5 | | ROE（TTM） | 3.4 | | 资产负债率 | 23.7% | | 主要股东 中国振华电子集团有限公司 | | | 主要股东持股比例 | 44.84% | 股价表现 相关报告 1、《成都华微（688709）—营收稳增 彰显需求复苏，布局深化拓新应用》 2025-09-14 2、《成都华 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the year-on-year net signed area for second-hand homes, with a decrease of 30% compared to the previous year, which is an expansion of 15 percentage points from November [4]. - In contrast, the year-on-year decline in the net signed area for new homes has narrowed to 26%, improving by 9 percentage points from November [4]. - The central economic work conference has shifted its focus from "greater efforts to stabilize the real estate market" to "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market," suggesting potential support for urban renewal and housing fund reforms [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the difference between net rental yields and mortgage rates as a key observation for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets [6]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - The year-on-year decline in new home net signed area has narrowed, with the average area signed in sample cities showing improvement compared to the past four years [10][11]. - The report indicates that the new home market is experiencing a more favorable supply-demand environment compared to the second-hand market [6]. Second-Hand Home Market - The year-on-year decline in second-hand home net signed area has expanded, with the average area signed in sample cities remaining at a relatively high level compared to the last five years [15][18]. - The report notes that the average viewing numbers for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities have decreased year-on-year, indicating a potential slowdown in market activity [43]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to November has seen a year-on-year decline of 14%, with the average transaction price showing a narrower increase of 7% [22]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of unsold land parcels, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [33]. Market Liquidity - The report assesses liquidity indicators, noting a tightening in macro-level liquidity in December, which may impact market conditions [47]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has decreased slightly, indicating a cautious market sentiment [48]. Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates an increase in the unsold inventory of new homes, with the de-stocking cycle lengthening compared to October [33]. - The report also highlights that the de-stocking cycles for first and second-tier cities have increased, suggesting a potential slowdown in sales [33].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the US has postponed the imposition of tariffs on Chinese chips for 18 months, aiming to stabilize short-term US-China relations and manage friction levels [5][10][14] - The strategic objective of the US in the technology competition remains unchanged, focusing on maintaining technological hegemony, but the approach may shift towards more precise controls rather than a blanket blockade [5][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring domestic political dynamics in the US that could interfere with major power relations, especially with the upcoming election year [5][14] Group 2 - Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are characterized by a "fighting while talking" approach, with sensitive issues like territorial disputes still unresolved [5][12][15] - Ukraine's proposed peace plan includes maintaining sovereignty, establishing a contact line for monitoring, and receiving security guarantees, while Russia's stance remains firm on territorial claims [12][15] - The report suggests that the current period until winter of the following year may serve as a window for negotiations, with significant implications for US-Russia relations [15][17] Group 3 - The report indicates that geopolitical conflicts will continue, with a focus on the dynamics of US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations and potential impacts on global stability [17][20] - The US tariff policies are expected to remain a focal point, particularly regarding strategic security industries, with ongoing investigations into sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals [20][21] - The report warns of potential long-term risks associated with the rebalancing of major power relations, particularly in the context of US domestic politics and international trade dynamics [21][22]

Group 1: Macro Retail and Service Consumption - Retail data shows that essential goods maintain resilience while optional goods exhibit differentiated performance, with social retail growth slightly slowing down due to high base effects from government subsidies [10][16] - Service retail continues to show strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% from January to November 2025, outpacing overall social retail growth [10][18] - Travel demand is steadily releasing, with domestic tourism numbers reaching 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [18][20] Group 2: E-commerce Sector - E-commerce maintains a steady growth rate, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, surpassing the overall social retail growth [13][25] - The penetration rate of e-commerce continues to rise, reaching 25.9% of total social retail sales by November 2025, an increase of 3.6 percentage points since the beginning of the year [13][25] - The competitive landscape in e-commerce is easing, with platforms like Taobao and JD.com focusing on maintaining stable growth rather than aggressive price competition [28][36] Group 3: Retail Focus on Downstream Markets - The focus is on the resilience of consumption in lower-tier markets, with recommendations for bulk snack retailers and the "锅圈" brand, which excels in the home dining sector [5][31] - The bulk snack market is characterized by low prices and high turnover, effectively meeting consumer demand for snacks [5][31] - "锅圈" is positioned as a leader in the home dining market, leveraging its multi-channel advantages and strong supply chain [5][31] Group 4: Service Sector Recovery - The hotel industry is stabilizing with a recovery in demand, and recommendations include Huazhu Group and Atour Hotel [5][31] - The OTA sector is experiencing stronger leisure demand compared to business travel, with international business continuing to grow rapidly [5][31] - Policies aimed at boosting service consumption are expected to further stimulate demand in the travel and hospitality sectors [23][24] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Didi Chuxing for their strong fundamentals and low valuations [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the e-commerce and service sectors, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [5][23]

Core Insights - The report indicates that significant institutional investors are continuously increasing their holdings in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, providing stable incremental capital to the market. This trend is expected to lead to a "cross-year + spring" market rally as the market's profitability improves and financing capital accelerates its net inflow [1][4][22] - The report emphasizes that the main focus of the market is likely to be on blue-chip indices represented by CSI 300 and SSE 50, while cyclical sectors should be prioritized for investment [1][5][22] Group 1: Recent Capital Flow and ETF Trends - Since the beginning of 2025, the capital flow in stock ETFs has shown distinct phase characteristics and structural differentiation, with significant net subscriptions in A500 ETF since December, reflecting institutional investors' entry into the capital market [6][9][12] - The A500 ETF has seen a substantial net subscription of 810 billion yuan in December, indicating a strong interest from institutional investors, particularly in the context of the upcoming launch of A500 ETF options in 2026 [12][13][17] Group 2: Price Trends in Key Commodities - Recent price increases have been concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, crude oil, chemicals, and the new energy industry chain, with notable price rises in platinum (+32.92%), silver (+14.38%), and nickel (+9.25%) driven by global liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions [23][24] - The report highlights that the holding volumes of various commodities are at historically high levels, indicating potential supply constraints and speculative exposure in metals like aluminum, lead, and tin [26][27] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the overall A-share market has shown a positive trend, with major indices breaking through key moving averages, supported by a favorable monetary policy environment and improved market liquidity [30][31] - The report also points out that sectors such as non-ferrous metals and defense have performed well due to improved economic expectations and specific market events, while consumer sectors have faced challenges [31][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the bond market from multiple aspects, including bond market sentiment, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation, and presents the changes in various indicators last week [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Sentiment - Last week, the bond market sentiment index was 112.3, down 0.3 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 47.7%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Institutional Duration - As of last Friday, the fund duration was 1.66 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 3.28 years, down 0.08 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 7.57 years, up 0.15 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3.3 Leverage Ratio - Last week, the balance of pledged repurchase was 13.0 trillion yuan, up 0.4 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 5.0 trillion yuan, up 0.2 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.9%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Secondary Trading - In terms of turnover rate last week, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 2.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y treasury bonds was 0.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y CDB bonds was 11.3%, down 6.1 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 0.31%, up 0.06 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.5 Allocation Power - In terms of bond market allocation power, the newly issued share of bond funds last week was 11.2 billion yuan, up 2.4 billion yuan from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 0.72%, down 0.07 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 98.0, down 0.4 from the previous value. The 6M bill transfer discount rate - 6M certificate of deposit rose 3.0bp to - 68.8bp, reflecting an increase in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the bond allocation index of rural commercial banks was - 27.1%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous value; the bond allocation index of insurance companies was 2.2%, down 52.7 percentage points from the previous value; the bond allocation index of money market funds was - 45.5%, down 91.6 percentage points from the previous value; the allocation index of insurance second - tier perpetual bonds was - 17.2%, down 8.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Primary Subscription - Last week, the full - field multiple of treasury bonds fell 0.1 times to 2.7 times; the full - field multiple of local bonds fell 4.1 times to 15.2 times; the full - field multiple of CDB bonds was nan times [2]. 3.7 Relative Valuation - Last week, the spread between 10 - year CDB and treasury bonds narrowed 0.8bp to 14.1bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds narrowed 2.8bp to 38.9bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed 0.2bp to - 7.5bp; the spread between 10 - year local and treasury bonds was 20.8bp, the same as the previous value [2].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the tanker and bulk shipping sectors in 2026, with a relatively favorable supply-demand balance for medium and large vessels, indicating potential for significant seasonal elasticity [1] - The shipping sector has shown relative outperformance against the transportation index, although it remains weaker than the CSI 300 index, with the shipping index rising by 8.8% year-to-date compared to a 16.1% increase in the CSI 300 [5][11] - The report emphasizes the impact of geopolitical factors and tariff policies on shipping performance, noting significant fluctuations in freight rates due to trade tensions, particularly between the US and China [11] Group 2: Container Shipping - In 2025, container shipping faced notable impacts from tariff policies, leading to a significant drop in cargo volumes on US-China routes, with a temporary surge in freight rates due to a "rush to ship" phenomenon [21] - The demand for container shipping remains resilient, with a year-on-year export growth of 5.4% in China for the first eleven months of 2025, despite challenges from tariff adjustments [25][30] - Supply forecasts indicate a steady increase in container fleet capacity, with expected growth rates of 4.7% and 6.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, while the demand growth is projected at 2.4% and 3.0% for the same years [49][55] Group 3: Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector is expected to maintain a favorable supply-demand balance in 2026, driven by multiple positive factors, including increased production from the Middle East and rising demand for oil imports from Asia [60] - The report notes a significant increase in global oil exports starting from September 2025, with major oil-producing countries ramping up their output, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance that supports rising freight rates [63] - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates have shown a substantial increase, with rates reaching $110,000 per day by December 2025, reflecting the strong demand and supply constraints in the oil shipping market [60][61] Group 4: Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping market is experiencing a recovery in the second half of 2025, with increased demand for iron ore and grain transportation, leading to a positive outlook for 2026 [60] - The report forecasts a growth rate of 0.9% and 0.7% for dry bulk shipping volumes in 2026 and 2027, respectively, driven by the demand for iron ore and grain [60] - Supply constraints are anticipated, particularly for Capesize vessels, with limited growth expected in their capacity, which may support freight rate increases in the upcoming years [60][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for China Power [1][3]. Core Views - China Power is currently undervalued due to the pressure on ship market volume and prices this year. However, there are signs of recovery in the short term, and long-term growth is expected from bulk carriers and oil tankers, along with the trend towards alternative fuels [1][7]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic ship engine market, with a significant increase in revenue and profit expected in the coming years [7][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Power achieved revenue of 40.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.21 billion yuan, up 63% year-on-year [7][9]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 17% for 2025, 15% for 2026, and 12% for 2027, with net profits expected to reach 2.2 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, and 4.25 billion yuan respectively [8][70]. Market Outlook - The ship market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for increased demand for bulk carriers and oil tankers. The aging fleet and low order-to-capacity ratios for these vessels indicate a tightening supply in the future [2][30][35]. - The report highlights that the global shipbuilding market is currently in an upward cycle driven by the need for fleet renewal and compliance with environmental regulations [23][24]. Valuation - China Power's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is below 1.2, and the projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is only 15 times, both indicating a significant undervaluation compared to historical averages [7][72]. - The company has over 40 billion yuan in cash, which is close to its market capitalization, providing a strong safety margin for investors [15][72]. Business Segments - The diesel engine segment is becoming the core profit driver for China Power, with its revenue share increasing significantly. By 2027, it is expected to contribute approximately 30 billion yuan to net profits [11][70]. - The report emphasizes the structural opportunities in the ship engine market due to the rising penetration of alternative fuels and the expected increase in orders and prices for ship engines [7][57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for leading companies in various sub-sectors of the media and internet industry, particularly highlighting companies such as Shenzhou Taiyue, Southern Media, and Tencent Holdings [1]. Core Insights - The domestic AI commercialization is rapidly developing, with significant interest in AI applications across various industries. The report emphasizes the need for further exploration of profitable AI application models to support future demand for computing power and paid users [1]. - The gaming sector, particularly Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group," is performing strongly, with the game achieving a significant revenue increase and expanding into international markets [2]. - The report notes that while the media industry experienced a slight decline of 0.19% recently, it has seen a year-to-date increase of 26.84%, ranking it 8th among all sectors [1][10]. Summary by Sections Media Industry Performance - The media industry index decreased by 0.19% from December 15 to December 21, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.03% during the same period [10]. - The media sector's year-to-date performance shows a 26.84% increase, ranking it 8th among all sectors [1][10]. Gaming Sector Highlights - Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" has continued its strong performance, with a revenue increase of 100% month-over-month, entering the top 10 in China's iOS mobile game revenue rankings [2]. - The game is set to expand into Southeast Asia and Japan in 2026, indicating a strategic move towards internationalization [2]. AI Commercialization - The report identifies a growing trend in AI applications, with notable developments in AI assistants, e-commerce, gaming, and video content. Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are leading in AI assistant and e-commerce innovations [1]. - The report highlights that while current AI application revenues are modest, the commercialization of AI is beginning to take shape in China, with various sectors starting to see profitability [1].