Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Zijin Mining [3]. Core Views - The acquisition of the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan is expected to enhance Zijin Mining's resource reserves and gold production capacity, supporting the company's goal of achieving an annual gold output of 100-110 tons by 2028 [6][3]. - The projected net profit for the years 2025-2027 is estimated at 42.7 billion, 47.9 billion, and 56.5 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.1, 10.8, and 9.2 [6][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 293.4 billion CNY in 2023 to 470.5 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% [2][13]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 31.9 billion CNY in 2023 to 85.8 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.79 CNY in 2023 to 2.13 CNY in 2027 [2][14]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Minxi Xinghang State-owned Assets Investment Management Co., Ltd., holding a 22.89% stake in the company [3]. Market Performance - The current share price is 19.5 CNY, with a total market capitalization of approximately 518.3 billion CNY [3].

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 百强房企 25 年 6 月单月销售额负同比较上月扩大 11pct 至-21% 25 年 6 月百强房企销售数据解读 总量研究/房地产 摘要：据相关统计数据，百强房企 25 年 6 月单月销售额同比负增速较上月扩大 11pct 至-21%；25 年 6 月份单月销售额环比+17%，弱于过去三年同期环比均 值（+34%）；结构上，TOP1-10/11-30/ 31-50/ 51-100 房企 25 年 6 月销售额 同 比 增 速 较 上 月 下 降 17pct/ 下 降 4pct/ 下 降 14pct/ 上 升 2pct 至 -26%/-14%/-20%/-16%。 资料来源：中国指数研究院，克而瑞，公司公告，统计局，招商证券等; 风险提示：相关统计数据或有偏离，政策改善不及预期，销售下滑超预期，市 场流动性改善不及预期等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 256 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2704.2 | 3.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 25 ...

点评报告 相关报告 1、《关税对企业订单的负面影响开始 显现——2025 年 4 月 PMI 点评》 2025 年 04 月 30 日 2、《制造业 PMI 回升到荣枯线以上仍 有压力——2025 年 5 月 PMI 点评》 2025 年 05 月 31 日 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 罗丹 S1090524070004 luodan7@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 制造业 PMI 环比回升是否具有持续性？ ——2025 年 6 月 PMI 点评 频率：每月 事件：6 月制造业 PMI 录得 49.7，环比上升 0.2；服务业 PMI 录得 50.1，环 比下滑 0.1。建筑业 PMI 录得 52.8，环比提升 1.8。综合 PMI 产出指数录得 50.7，环比上升 0.3。 ❑ 风险提示：内需修复速度不及预期。 图 1：制造业 PMI 历年变化趋势 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 央国企动态系列报告之 42 —上半年央企市值管理有序推进，估值提升计划陆续公布 频率：双周 结合当前的市值和估值水平，2025 年上半年央企上市公司在市值增长、估值 提升、机构投资者占比增加等多个层面取得显著成效，有望更好地推动新一轮 市值管理。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 41——兵器工业和兵器装备集 团重组，落实聚焦主责主业要 求》2025-06-17 2、《央国企动态系列报告之 40—并购重组新规出台，央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-02 林喜鹏 S1090522050001 linxipeng@cmschina.com.cn 罗嘉成 研究助理 luojiacheng@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 当前，已有 57 家国资央企正式发布市值管理制度，154 家国资央企已（拟） 制定市值管理制度但暂未公布以及30家国资央企发布估值提升计划，央企上 市公司在市值增长，估值提升等方面取得一定成效。 ❑ 估值层面，2025年上半年深度破净的央企上市公司数 ...

Economic Growth and Price Trends - China's GDP growth is expected to remain above 5% for three consecutive quarters, but price levels continue to weaken[1] - CPI has shown negative growth for three consecutive months, while PPI has dropped to -3.3%[1] - In contrast to 2015, when growth and prices were negatively correlated, the current situation shows high growth with persistent price weakness[1] Historical Comparison - In 2015, GDP growth slowed from 7.1% in the first half to 6.9% by Q4, with PPI declining by 5.9% in Q4, the lowest since 2010[1] - Policy easing began in late 2014, with significant measures taken in 2015, leading to a recovery in both growth and prices by mid-2017[1] Current Economic State - The current economic state is characterized as atypical, with high growth not translating into price increases, indicating a potential trend of prolonged price weakness[1] - Marginal improvements in domestic prices are noted, with core CPI showing signs of recovery since Q4 of the previous year[1] Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the main investment opportunities in the computer sector for the first half of 2025 are focused on three key themes: AI, financial technology innovation, and automation, with a notable preference for small-cap companies [1][18][21] - The performance of the computer sector is highlighted, with the Shenwan Computer Index showing a growth of 7.85% from January 1 to June 25, 2025, and a maximum increase of 41.33% during the same period [14][21] - The report identifies specific companies that have shown significant stock performance, such as Luqiao Information with a 271.26% increase and Huijin Co. with a 212.21% increase [15][29] Group 2 - The report discusses the rapid development of AI applications, particularly in the consumer sector, where active users of AI-native apps reached 270 million by March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 536.8% [32][33] - It notes that the integration of AI technology has significantly boosted the performance of companies like Meitu, which achieved a revenue of 3.34 billion yuan in 2024, a 23.9% increase year-on-year, largely due to AI-enhanced products [38][40] - The report highlights the importance of financial technology innovations, particularly stablecoins, which have seen a market capitalization of $251.1 billion as of June 25, 2025, with USDT and USDC being the leading stablecoins [6][28] Group 3 - The report outlines the commercialization of automation applications, such as Tesla's Robotaxi, which began operations in Austin, Texas, charging $4.2 per ride, indicating a significant step towards the realization of autonomous logistics [30][31] - It emphasizes the potential of companies like Jiu Shi and New Stone, which are leading the commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles, showcasing the rapid development of this sector [30][31] - The report also discusses the legislative advancements in stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets), which are expected to bridge traditional finance and Web3, enhancing the financial ecosystem [28][29]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 丁酮、一氯甲烷价格涨幅居前，建议关注 PCB 相关电子化学品 招商化工行业周报 2025 年 6 月第 5 周 周期/化工 本报告阐述了基础化工板块一周行情走势、产品价格及价差变化、重点推荐子 行业及公司。 板块整体走势 6 月第 5 周化工板块（申万）上涨 3.11%，上证 A 指上涨 1.92%，板块领先 大盘 1.19 个百分点。涨幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：大东南（+50%），天晟 新材（+31.41%），沧州明珠（+26.93%），湘潭电化（+20.5%），佛塑科 技（+14.87%）；跌幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：金牛化工（-14.44%），联化 科技（-9.28%），科恒股份（-7.8%），赤天化（-5.28%），红星发展（-4.68%）。 此外，本周化工板块（申万）动态 PE 为 24.76 倍，低于 2015 年来的平均 PE 9.15%。 细分子行业走势 6 月第 5 周化工行业 26 个子行业上涨，5 个子行业下跌。上涨子行业前五是： 其他塑料制品（+8.45%），炭黑（+7.65%），其他橡胶制品（+7.54%）， 合成 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 可控核聚变系列报告（1） 核聚变产业化加速，关注电源系统 中游制造/电力设备及新能源 可控核聚变是理论上最理想的终极能源形式之一，国内外都高度重视，近几年 资本纷纷入局，加速了技术进步和迭代，全球可控核聚变的产业化进度明显加 速。本报告简单梳理了海外和国内可控核聚变的发展近况，并重点分析电源系 统的重要性、壁垒和相应机会。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 禾望电气 | 603063.SH | 15.4 | 0.99 | 1.54 | 22.0 | 3.3 | 强烈推荐 | | 爱科赛博 | 688719.SH | 4.9 | 0.63 | 0.83 | 51.4 | 2.9 | 未予评级 | | 旭光电子 | 600353.SH | 10.4 | 0.12 | 0.2 | 62.7 | 5.8 | 未予评级 | | 弘讯科技 | 603015 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures to regulate breeding sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2025-2026, benefiting the poultry sector and leading feed companies [1][38]. - The report highlights the increasing focus on food security amid frequent extreme weather events and trade tensions, suggesting a strategic shift in the agricultural sector [1]. Group 2: Swine Farming - In the first half of 2025, pig prices remained strong, influenced by slow recovery in breeding sow capacity and proactive market behavior before holidays, leading to a stable price range of 14.0-15.0 yuan/kg [12][15]. - The report anticipates limited growth in pig supply for 2025 due to cautious replenishment by producers, with expectations for pig prices to remain favorable in the second half of 2025 [15][31]. - Key companies recommended for investment in the swine sector include Muyuan Foods and WH Group, noted for their cost advantages and strong performance [38]. Group 3: Poultry Farming - The report is optimistic about the white-feathered chicken breeding sector, expecting a tightening supply of parent stock in the second half of 2025, which will positively impact the market [40][58]. - For yellow-feathered chickens, the report indicates that the current low inventory of parent stock, combined with reduced production costs, sets the stage for potential price recovery and profit expansion [52][58]. - Recommended companies in the poultry sector include Lihua Agricultural and Dekang Agriculture, which are expected to benefit from improving market conditions [58]. Group 4: Feed and Veterinary Services - The report notes a recovery in demand for feed products as the breeding sector improves, with a positive outlook for companies like Haida Group, which is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [6][38]. - The veterinary services sector is also expected to see a recovery in demand, with a focus on leading companies in the animal health space [38]. Group 5: Seed Industry - The report highlights the rising importance of food security, with a focus on the seed industry, particularly in rice and corn, as the sector enters a phase of recovery and growth [38]. - The hybrid rice seed industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, while corn prices are rebounding, encouraging farmer planting enthusiasm [38][58]. - Recommended companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, which are anticipated to benefit from these trends [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The new housing contract area has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, while the second-hand housing contract area has experienced a narrowed year-on-year decline [1][8] - The report indicates that the overall demand for new and second-hand housing may stabilize due to potential decreases in mortgage rates, which could help narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [5] - The report highlights that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0 times, reflecting concerns about the impact of current sales on business models, suggesting that the sector has entered an investment range [5] Summary by Sections New Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in new housing contracts has expanded to -14% as of June 26, with a notable drop in first-tier cities [3] - The report notes that the year-on-year decline in new housing contracts is at a middle level compared to the past five years [8] Second-Hand Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing contracts has narrowed to -1%, with first-tier cities showing a 9% increase [3] - The report indicates that the second-hand housing contract area has shown a positive trend in certain sample cities, with some cities experiencing a year-on-year increase [13] Market Trends and Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has increased by 3.9% month-on-month, indicating a positive shift in market activity [40] - The liquidity outlook suggests an expansion in macro-level liquidity as of June 2025, which may support market recovery [44] Land Acquisition and Pricing - The cumulative land transaction area from January to May 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of -7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [20] - The report notes that the proportion of properties with increased listing prices has decreased by 4.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential cooling in price increases [47]