证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《出口展现韧性，中美谈判进展或促风 险偏好修复》 - 2025.06.10 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美国通胀数据缓和 ⚫ 核心观点： 发布时间：2025-06-16 | 1 海外宏观数据跟踪 4 | | --- | | 1.1 上周重要事件与数据跟踪 4 | | 1.2 本周重要数据与事件 8 | | 2 美联储观点跟踪 9 | | 3 风险提示 9 | 周三公布的美国通胀数据好于预期，反映前期补库行为可能部分 抵消了关税影响。从分项上看，领先指标新租约租金数据指示，核心 服务中的住房分项预计仍将持续回落。同时，申领失业金人数上升显 示劳动力市场正在松动，或将进一步拖累核心服务 CPI 中的其他分 项。中东局势升级为油价带来一定的上行风险，但鉴于双方实力差距， 地缘政治对油价的影响可能偏向短期。美联储方面，尽管通胀风险缓 和，但关税影响或 ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -29% -20% -11% -2% 7% 16% 25% 34% 43% 52% 华虹公司 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 46.78 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）17.26 | / 3.91 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）808 | / 183 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 60.28 / 27.08 | | 资产负债率(%) | 28.7% | | 市盈率 | 212.64 | | | 香港中央结算(代理人) | | 第一大股东 有 | 限 公 司 (HKSCC | | NOMINEES | LIMITED) | 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 华虹公司(688347) 我 们 预 计 公 司 2025/2026/2027 年 分 别 实 现 收 入 166.9 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-06-16 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《谷歌更新 Gemini 2.5 Pro，阿里开源 Qwen3新模型——AI动态汇总20250609 【中邮金工】》 - 2025.06.09 《资金博弈停牌个股大幅流入信创 ETF，概念轮动速度较快——行业轮动 周报 20250608》 - 2025.06.09 《综合金融受益于稳定币表现突出， ETF 资金逢高净流出医药和消费——行 业轮动周报 20250601》 – 2025.06.02 《退潮周期情绪仍需等待恢复，ETF 净 流 入 国 防 军 工 — — 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250525》 – 2025.05.26 《ETF 大幅流出红利，成长 GRU 行业因 子得分提升较大——行业轮动周报 20250518》 – 2025.05.19 《各大宽基指数成功补缺，融资资金大 幅 ...

- The report tracks style factors including profitability, volatility, and momentum, which showed strong long positions, while nonlinear market capitalization, valuation, and leverage factors demonstrated strong short positions[3][16] - Barra style factors include Beta (historical beta), market capitalization (logarithm of total market capitalization), momentum (mean of historical excess return series), volatility (weighted combination of historical excess return volatility, cumulative excess return deviation, and residual return volatility), nonlinear market capitalization (third power of market capitalization style), valuation (inverse of price-to-book ratio), liquidity (weighted turnover rates across monthly, quarterly, and yearly periods), profitability (weighted combination of analyst forecast earnings-price ratio, inverse cash flow ratio, and inverse trailing twelve-month PE ratio), growth (weighted combination of earnings growth rate and revenue growth rate), and leverage (weighted combination of market leverage, book leverage, and debt-to-asset ratio)[15] - GRU factors demonstrated strong multi-directional performance across various stock pools, with models like barra5d showing particularly strong positive returns[4][5][7] - GRU long-only portfolio outperformed the CSI 1000 index with excess returns ranging from 0.06% to 0.95% this week, while the barra5d model achieved a year-to-date excess return of 7.75%[8][30][31]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 福建属于传统意义上的好区域，不在重点省份的名单之列，经济 财政实力未处于第一梯队，但好在债务负担也偏轻。从 2024 的数据 表现来看，福建单论经济财政实力并不算特别突出，只能属于"第二 梯队"。福建省 2024 年的 GDP 为 57,761.02 亿元，一般预算收入 2,329.73 亿元，政府性基金收入为 1,787.51 亿元。但福建省的杠杆 程度同样不算高，2024 年福建政府债务结构分布较为均衡，从债务绝 对规模来看，与贵州省较为接近。 发布时间：2025-06-16 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:李书开 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040001 Email:lishukai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《杠杆可以更积极点——流动性周报 20250615》 - 2025.06.16 信用周度观点 漳州：境外债的机会有多大？ ——信用周报 20250616 ⚫ 漳州：境外债的机会有多大？ 漳州在福建地级市排序中属于"独一档"的中等偏上的水平，经 济财 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-06-16 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《杠杆可以更积极点——流动性周报 20250615》 - 2025.06.16 固收周报 钢铁生产回落，原油价格大涨 ——高频数据跟踪 20250616 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产有所分化，钢铁产业链下行， 焦炉、高炉开工率均下降，螺纹钢产量减少；沥青、半钢胎、PTA 开 工率回升，PX、全钢胎下降。第二，房地产持续边际回落，商品房成 交面积、土地供应面积减少。第三，物价走势分化，原油受中东局势 影响大涨，铝价回升，焦煤、铜、螺纹钢下跌。第四，航运指数处于 近年来较高水平，SCFI 高位回落，CCFI 上涨，BDI 持续大幅上涨。短 期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市场恢复情况及美国 关税政策变动影响。 生产：焦炉、高炉开工率下降，沥青、半钢胎、PTA 回升 6 月 13 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The diffusion index is used to monitor the critical points of market changes and predict potential turning points in the micro-cap stock index[5][35] - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated based on the relative price changes of constituent stocks over a specific time window. For example, if the horizontal axis is 0.95 and the vertical axis is 15 days, a value of 0.19 indicates that if all constituent stocks drop by 5% after 5 days, the diffusion index value will be 0.19. The formula and methodology are not explicitly provided but rely on historical and predictive data of constituent stocks[35][37] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying market turning points and provides actionable signals for left-side and right-side trading strategies[5][36] 2. Model Name: First Threshold Method (Left-Side Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method triggers a sell signal when the diffusion index reaches a predefined threshold, indicating a left-side trading opportunity[5][39] - **Model Construction Process**: The first threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 8, 2025, when the diffusion index reached 0.9850[39] - **Model Evaluation**: It is suitable for early identification of market risks but may lead to premature signals in volatile markets[5][39] 3. Model Name: Delayed Threshold Method (Right-Side Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method delays the sell signal until the diffusion index reaches a lower threshold, providing a more conservative approach[5][41] - **Model Construction Process**: The delayed threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 15, 2025, when the diffusion index reached 0.8975[43] - **Model Evaluation**: It reduces the risk of false signals but may miss early opportunities[5][43] 4. Model Name: Dual Moving Average Method (Adaptive Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method uses two moving averages to adapt to market trends and trigger trading signals[5][44] - **Model Construction Process**: The dual moving average method triggered a sell signal on June 11, 2025[44] - **Model Evaluation**: It balances between early and delayed signals, making it suitable for dynamic market conditions[5][44] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Model - Current value: 0.70[35] - Predicted low point: Next Wednesday, with a potential cumulative decline of over 6%[5][36] 2. First Threshold Method - Triggered sell signal: May 8, 2025, at 0.9850[39] 3. Delayed Threshold Method - Triggered sell signal: May 15, 2025, at 0.8975[43] 4. Dual Moving Average Method - Triggered sell signal: June 11, 2025[44] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: PE_TTM Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio based on trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.187 (historical average: 0.018)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power for the week, significantly outperforming its historical average[4][15] 2. Factor Name: Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the profitability of constituent stocks[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.177 (historical average: 0.023)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Shows robust performance, exceeding historical averages[4][15] 3. Factor Name: Unadjusted Stock Price Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the raw stock price without adjustments for splits or dividends[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.13 (historical average: -0.017)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Positive performance, reversing its historical negative trend[4][15] 4. Factor Name: Dividend Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dividend yield of stocks[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.118 (historical average: 0.022)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Consistently outperforms its historical average[4][15] 5. Factor Name: PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the inverse of the price-to-book ratio[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.116 (historical average: 0.034)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Strong weekly performance, well above historical norms[4][15] --- Factor Backtesting Results Top 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. PE_TTM Inverse Factor: 0.187[4][15] 2. Profitability Factor: 0.177[4][15] 3. Unadjusted Stock Price Factor: 0.13[4][15] 4. Dividend Yield Factor: 0.118[4][15] 5. PB Inverse Factor: 0.116[4][15] Bottom 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. 1-Year Volatility Factor: -0.188[4][15] 2. 10-Day Free Float Turnover Factor: -0.166[4][15] 3. Residual Volatility Factor: -0.143[4][15] 4. Trading Volume Factor: -0.142[4][15] 5. 10-Day Total Market Cap Turnover Factor: -0.139[4][15]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced slight declines, with most major indices falling, except for the ChiNext Index, which was the only major index to rise, primarily driven by blue-chip stocks [3][12] - The performance of the A-share market was influenced by external political events, including the Israel-Iran conflict, which heightened global market risk aversion and led to significant increases in gold and oil prices [3][16] - The overall market did not establish a new trading theme, continuing the pattern of new consumption stocks rising and then retreating, alongside the valuation recovery of innovative pharmaceuticals [3][16] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index showed slight recovery, with a 7-day moving average of 4.6% as of June 14, up from -4.0% on June 7, indicating a shift from persistent pessimism to a more normalized trading phase [4][17] - The financing transaction volume in the A-share market has seen a notable decline, reflecting a decrease in investor enthusiasm, although there was a slight net inflow this week [20] - The current state of industry rotation is characterized by high speed and low intensity, suggesting a market environment prone to sideways movement [21][23] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The report anticipates continued market volatility, with external factors such as US tariffs and the Israel-Iran conflict potentially causing further impacts on the A-share market [4][30] - The A-share market may see upward movement during the internal policy window in July, with expectations for stimulus policies in consumption and real estate sectors [4][30] - The recommendation is to focus on dividend stocks with good value, particularly in sectors like banking, transportation, and utilities, while waiting for clearer internal demand stimulus policies to catalyze traditional consumption trades [5][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Leverage can be more aggressive, and positions can be heavier. The certainty of loose funds allows for a more active leverage strategy, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [2][3][17]. - The growth of financing is mainly from the government sector, and the gap between deposit and loan growth rates is still being repaired. The risk of the bank's liability side has been significantly alleviated, reducing the risk of liquidity tightening [2][9]. - The two operations of the repurchase agreement mainly aim to reduce uncertainty, and the change in the scale of medium - and long - term liquidity injection this month may be small [2][11]. - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not reached its end [2][13]. - Seasonal fluctuations in capital prices will still exist. In the first and middle of July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. Summary by Directory 1 Leverage can be more aggressive - **Previous Views Summary** - There is a possibility that the capital market will be more loosely liquid than expected. There is a chance that the capital price center will be below 1.4%. - The reasonable pricing center for the NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks after the decline of capital prices in the future may be 1.6%. Currently, 1.7% is too high, and it has obvious allocation value, but it is difficult for the CD interest rate to decline significantly in June. - The main line of the bond market is the downward repair of liability costs and the return repair of position losses, which requires time. After the interest rate reaches a relatively low level, trading often fluctuates between "anticipating the market" and "falling behind" [8]. - **Financing and Credit Situation** - In May, credit growth was still weak. Corporate sector credit increased less year - on - year, and the long - term credit of the household sector showed a stable trend. Corporate sector bond financing increased slightly year - on - year, possibly related to the opening of the bond technology board. Government bonds increased by 236.7 billion year - on - year, and the growth of financing still relied on the government sector [9]. - **Function of Repurchase Agreement Operations** - The two operations of the repurchase agreement this month totaled an injection of 1.4 trillion, but considering the possible 1.2 trillion maturity in the same month, the net injection scale for the whole month is not large. The MLF and the repurchase agreement are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the space for large - scale incremental injection is decreasing. These two operations should be considered comprehensively [11]. - **Factors Affecting Capital Price Center** - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity. After April, the liability risk problem of large banks has been significantly alleviated. The performance of the capital market in the past two weeks has verified that the large banks' lending capacity has recovered, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not ended [13]. - **Seasonal Fluctuations of Capital Prices** - In mid - June, there is the impact of the tax period, and in late June, the cross - quarter factor will dominate the trend of capital prices. Near the end of the month, fiscal funds may be released to supplement liquidity. In July, the tax period is relatively large, and the fluctuation of the capital market may increase. Before that, in early and mid - July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. - **Bond Market Strategy** - Recently, the short - end and long - end of the bond market still have downward space, but the long - end space is still limited. The 1 - year treasury bond has returned to the recent low, and it is not difficult for it to break through downward. The downward range of short - end treasury bond interest rates can be larger than that of other short - end varieties, which may bring some changes to the flat treasury bond yield curve. Therefore, the leverage strategy can be more aggressive, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [3][17].

证券研究报告：医药生物|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-16 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7895.79 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 8490.25 | | 52 周最低 | | 6070.89 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -14% -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:龙永茂 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110002 Email:longyongmao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 推荐标的：英科医疗、迈普医学、怡和嘉业、微电生理、 拱东医疗、派林生物、益丰药房、大参林、康臣药业、佐力药 业、桂林三金、天士力、新里程、美年健康、国际医学。 《政策支持上市公司通过并购重组高 质量发展，行业整合持 ...