证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格传导扭曲制约企业利润修复， 非制造业景气度收缩》 - 2025.12.1 宏观研究 全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量篇 核心观点 全球流动性表示为国际金融市场上的融资难易程度。全球流动性 的测度可以从数量和价格两个维度测算。英国金融学家迈克尔·J·豪 厄尔在《资本战争：全球流动性的涨潮》一书中强调，"经济周期是 由资金流-储蓄和信贷的数量驱动的"，强调流动性数量维度的重要 性。本篇报告着重从数量维度测算全球流动性，并判断当前全球流动 性处于什么水平。 全球流动性呈现新特征：发达经济体是全球流动性的主导，但主 导性有所弱化；新兴经济体影响力有所提升，特别是中国对全球流动 性的影响力正在显著提升，成为推动全球流动性结构转型的关键力 量，这背后反映了中国经济崛起，人民币与美元、欧元、日元、英镑 的博弈日 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on copper, driven by warehouse cancellations and supply-demand dynamics, suggesting that adjustments in price should be seen as buying opportunities [6] - The report also highlights the performance of precious metals, particularly silver, which has shown volatility but is expected to perform well in the long term due to ongoing de-dollarization trends and ETF inflows [5] - The aluminum market is following copper's upward trend, although it is experiencing seasonal demand weakness [7] - Tin prices are influenced by geopolitical factors, with expectations of long-term supply tightness despite recent price corrections [8] - Tungsten prices are reaching new highs due to supply constraints and export controls, indicating a persistent upward trend in the industry [9] - Investment suggestions include companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 4.30%, ranking second among industry sectors [18] Prices - LME copper rose by 4.38%, aluminum by 1.24%, zinc by 1.56%, lead by 1.41%, and tin by 2.23% during the week [21] Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 8,709 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 10,852 tons, indicating varied inventory trends across metals [35][37]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: December 8, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523120001) [1][2] 2. Core Views - High - frequency economic data focuses on: production heat is differentiated; real estate market has seasonal improvement; prices continue to rise; the Baltic Dry Index continues to rise rapidly. Short - term focus on consumer and investment incremental policies and real estate market recovery [2][33] 3. Detailed Summaries by Section Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization increased by 0.62 pct, blast furnace开工率 decreased by 0.93 pct, and rebar production decreased by 16.77 tons [3][10] - Petroleum Asphalt: Asphalt开工率 increased by 0.1 pct but remained at a low level [3][10] - Chemicals: PX开工率 decreased by 0.92 pct, and PTA开工率 remained flat [3][10] - Automobile Tires: All - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.17 pct, and semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 1.73 pct [3][11] Demand - Real Estate: The transaction area of commercial housing continued to rise, the inventory - to - sales ratio declined, land supply area decreased from a high level, and the premium rate of residential land transactions rebounded [4][15] - Movie Box Office: Increased by 1.648 billion yuan compared with the previous week [4][15] - Automobiles: The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 54,500 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 90,300 vehicles [4][18] - Shipping Freight Rates: SCFI index decreased by 0.39%, CCFI index decreased by 0.62%, and BDI index increased by 6.52% [4][21] Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price rose by 0.87% to $63.75 per barrel, and coking coal futures price rose by 9.49% to 1,165 yuan per ton [5][23] - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices increased by 4.38%, 1.24%, and 1.56% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 2.13% [5][24] - Agricultural Products: The overall price increased, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.81%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by - 0.84%, + 1.22%, + 2.42%, and + 2.63% respectively compared with the previous week [5][26] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Decreased in Beijing and Shanghai [29] - Flight Volume: Domestic and international flight volumes decreased [31] - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities decreased slightly [31]

发布时间：2025-12-08 行业投资评级 证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5252.51 | | 52 周最高 | 5417.39 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《"反内卷"下拐点渐显，关注出海及 转型机遇》 - 2025.11.26 建材行业报告 （2025.12.01-2025.12.07） 需求逐步进入淡季，期待地产及化债政策落地 投资要点 12 月 2 日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在《党建》杂志发布《深 入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，以高质量发展新成效谱写中国 式现代化新篇章》署名文章。文章中提到要提高防范化 ...

固收专题 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340124010004 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《货币政策重心转移————2026 年 展望系列四》 - 2025.12.03 ⚫ 账户实际变动：一级配置压力和兑现浮盈诉求下的权衡 结果 国有行 AC 账户被动扩容，股份行城商行增配 OCI，农商行 AC 账 户下降。国有大行方面，AC 账户增量均远超前两年同期，说明即使通 过卖出部分债券兑现浮盈，AC 账户在国债和地方政府债配置压力推动 下仍被动扩容。股份行方面，OCI 增量超往年全年增量，说明近年来 股份行配置资产或更多计入 OCI 账户，以满足利润调节诉求。城商行 方面，城商行 OCI 账户增量超过往两年增量之和，目前城商行投资收 益占营收比重已超 20%，卖债力度大幅增加的同时，相关账户仍快速 增加的主因或也是一级配置压力。同时获利了结减持 TPL。农商行方 面，AC 账户则为净流出状态，净流出幅度超过去年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production end heat is differentiated, the real - estate market has seasonal improvement, prices continue to rise, and the Baltic Dry Index continues to rise rapidly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment sides and the recovery of the real - estate market [2][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production: Steel Output Declines, Asphalt Operating Rate Rises Slightly at a Low Level - **Steel**: Coke oven capacity utilization increased by 0.62 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.93 pct, and rebar output decreased by 16.77 tons. On the week of December 5th, the coke oven capacity utilization of domestic independent coking plants (230 samples) was 72.64%, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills (247 samples) was 80.16%, and the national building materials steel mill rebar output was 189.31 tons [3][10] - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate increased by 0.1 pct but remained at a low level. On the week of December 3rd, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 27.9% [3][10] - **Chemical Industry**: PX operating rate decreased by 0.92 pct, and PTA operating rate remained flat. On December 4th, the domestic chemical PX operating rate was 89.21%, and the PTA operating rate was 73.81% [3][10] - **Automobile Tires**: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 0.17 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 1.73 pct. On the week of December 4th, the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires was 63.5%, and that of semi - steel tires was 70.92% [11] 3.2 Demand: Seasonal Improvement in Commodity Housing Transactions, Rapid Uptrend of BDI Index - **Real Estate**: The commodity housing transaction area continued to rise, the inventory - to - sales ratio declined, the land supply area declined from a high level, and the residential land transaction premium rate rebounded. On the week of November 30th, the commodity housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.4449 million square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio of 10 large cities was 89.07, the land supply area of 100 large and medium - sized cities was 34.2804 million square meters, and the residential land transaction premium rate was 3% [15] - **Movie Box Office**: It increased by 1.648 billion yuan compared with the previous week. On the week of November 30th, the national movie box office revenue was 211.1 million yuan [15] - **Automobile**: On the week of November 30th, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increased by 54,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 90,300 vehicles [18] - **Shipping Freight Rates**: The SCFI index decreased by 0.39%, the CCFI index decreased by 0.62%, and the BDI index increased by 6.52%. On the week of December 5th, the SCFI was 1397.63 points, the CCFI was 1114.89 points, and the BDI was 2727 points [21] 3.3 Prices: Prices of Crude Oil, Metals, Coking Coal, and Agricultural Products All Rise - **Energy**: Brent crude oil price increased by 0.87% to $63.75 per barrel. On December 5th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures (continuous contract) was $63.75 per barrel [23] - **Coking Coal**: The futures price increased by 9.49% to 1165 yuan per ton. On December 5th, the settlement price of coking coal futures (active contract) was 1165 yuan per ton [23] - **Metals**: The futures price changes of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc were +4.38%, +1.24%, and +1.56% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 2.13%. On December 5th, the closing price of LME copper futures (active contract) was $11,665 per ton, LME aluminum was $2900.5 per ton, LME zinc was $3098.5 per ton, and the domestic rebar futures settlement price was 3164 yuan per ton [24] - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price increased, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rising by 1.81%. The price changes of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits compared with the previous week were - 0.84%, +1.22%, +2.42%, and +2.63% respectively. On December 5th, the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was 128.78, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.68 yuan per kg, eggs were 7.44 yuan per kg, 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables were 5.93 yuan per kg, and 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits were 7.41 yuan per kg [26][27] 3.4 Logistics: Both Domestic and International Flight Volumes Decline, and the Urban Congestion Index Drops Slightly - **Subway Passenger Volume**: It decreased in both Beijing and Shanghai. On December 4th, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume was 9.6202 million person - times, and that of Shanghai was 10.5057 million person - times [29] - **Flight Execution Volume**: Both domestic and international flight volumes declined. On December 5th, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight execution volume was 12,359.14 flights, the seven - day moving average of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight execution volume was 364.43 flights, and the seven - day moving average of international flight execution volume was 1816.14 flights [31] - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities dropped slightly. On December 5th, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index of first - tier cities was 1.72 [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current situation of the 30 - year treasury bond represents a prime opportunity for allocation. Despite the year - end bond market being likely to remain range - bound, there is a chance of early position - taking and a warming market. The significant increase in the 30 - year treasury bond yield is mainly driven by trading sentiment rather than fundamental or liquidity factors. From multiple perspectives including term spread, interest rate comparison, and institutional behavior, it is a good time to allocate [3][9][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 30 - year Treasury Bond Market Analysis - **Institutional Mindset Perspective**: At the end of the year, institutions' demand for returns is generally weak. In the first quarter of next year, wealth management and insurance institutions may have the intention to scramble for bonds. The bond market is likely to remain range - bound this year, but there is an opportunity for early position - taking and a market upswing at the year - end [3][9]. - **Analysis of Yield Increase Reasons**: The sharp rise in the yield of long - term treasury bonds is mainly due to trading sentiment. Public funds sell to avoid risks, securities firms amplify fluctuations through trading, while large banks recognize the allocation value of long - term bonds and buy them [9]. - **Term Spread Perspective**: The 30 - 10 term spread has returned to a recent high. Before the household sector increases leverage, it is difficult for the risk preference to drive the long - term spread to a higher level. The long - term spread is related to the risk preference and reflects the marginal change in the household debt cycle. Currently, the household leverage ratio is in a stable phase, and the long - term spread is unlikely to return to a very high level [3][11][13]. - **Interest Rate Comparison Perspective**: After tax deduction, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond is equal to the mortgage rate. According to the central bank's requirement of no inversion, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond should not rise significantly. Although this comparison is not strictly valid, it can be used as a pricing reference [3][12][13]. - **Institutional Behavior Perspective**: Recently, public funds focus on risk avoidance, and bank self - operation focuses on allocation. Large banks are buying long - term bonds again, while securities firms amplify fluctuations in trading. The increase in the yield of long - term treasury bonds driven by trading sentiment is a good time for allocation [3][9][13].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rapid expansion of the industry driven by the commercialization of projects, particularly in the solid-state battery sector, which is expected to see significant growth due to advancements in technology and production processes [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the mechanical equipment sector is 1988.9, with a 52-week high of 2110.66 and a low of 1420.7 [1]. Investment Highlights - The report discusses the significance of isostatic pressing equipment in the production of solid-state batteries, highlighting its ability to apply uniform pressure in all directions, which is crucial for eliminating internal voids and ensuring consistent quality in battery production [5][29]. - Isostatic pressing technology has over 70 years of history and is widely used in powder metallurgy and other fields, with three main types: Cold Isostatic Pressing (CIP), Warm Isostatic Pressing (WIP), and Hot Isostatic Pressing (HIP) [21][17]. Key Manufacturers - Major international manufacturers include Quintus Technologies from Sweden, known for its QIB 300 and QIB 600 series, and Hana Technology from South Korea, which collaborates closely with battery manufacturers [6][38]. - Domestic companies include Liyuanheng, Naconor, and Xian Dao Intelligent, all of which are actively developing isostatic pressing equipment for solid-state batteries [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company is actively advancing its mining project and diversifying its business strategy, which is expected to mitigate cyclical fluctuations [5][9]. - The company’s main business is chlor-alkali chemicals, with a focus on PVC resin, alkali products, and calcium carbide, while also expanding into mineral resource development [5][14]. - The company has successfully integrated the mining operations of the subsidiary, Lijiang Mining, which is rich in tantalum, niobium, tin, and tungsten resources [6][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 10.03 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.5 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 46.7% and a negative P/E ratio of -99.80 [4]. Mining Project Progress - The 600,000 tons per annum mining reconstruction project is progressing as planned, with significant milestones achieved, including the successful installation of the shaft frame [7][19]. - The mining project is expected to generate annual revenues of approximately 420 million yuan from various mineral products [19]. Resource Potential - The Lijiang Mining area has substantial mineral reserves, including 52.89 million tons of ore and significant quantities of tin, tungsten, tantalum, and niobium [6][18]. - The tailings from the mining operations also present a significant potential for recovery of valuable metals [6][18]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.767 billion, 1.884 billion, and 2.703 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of -117.3 million, 62.43 million, and 406 million yuan [11][12]. - The company expects to achieve a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from -0.18 in 2025 to 0.63 in 2027 [11]. Strategic Development - The company plans to establish a circular economy industrial park by 2030, aiming for an industrial output value exceeding 2.3 billion yuan [9][20]. - The high-purity quartz sand project is also underway, targeting high-end applications in semiconductors and other advanced fields, with initial sales already recorded [23][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that from January to November 2025, the total land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies reached 847.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed compared to the previous months [4] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities in November was 13,143 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.95% [4] - The report indicates that many regions are exploring policies to support the sale of existing homes, which may temporarily suppress real estate investment but will help restore residents' confidence in home buying in the long term [4] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New home transaction area in 30 major cities last week was 2.4177 million square meters, with a cumulative new home transaction area of 82.3198 million square meters for the year, down 9.8% year-on-year [5] - The average transaction area for new homes in first-tier cities over the past four weeks was 475,700 square meters, down 41.2% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw an average of 1.0945 million square meters, down 26.5% year-on-year [5][13] - The available inventory of commodity residential properties in 14 cities was 80.3458 million square meters, down 6.52% year-on-year, with a de-stocking cycle of 19.14 months [16] Market Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan first-level real estate industry index rose by 0.72%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 1.64%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 0.92 percentage points [29] - The report notes that the A-share real estate sector ranked 24th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries last week [30]