证券研究报告：医药生物|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-03 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7699.75 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 8490.25 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6070.89 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈成 SAC 登记编号:S1340524020001 Email:chencheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《三生制药创出海交易新纪录，中国 创新药企或迎 Lisence out 密集收获 期》 - 2025.05.26 医药生物行业报告 （2025.05.26-2025.05.30） 国产创新药密集获批上市，创新药关注度持续提升 l 一周观点：国产 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in market confidence post the China-US Geneva trade talks[13] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold[16] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is 50.7%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase, indicating a return to the expansion zone[19] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a widening supply-demand gap, with the difference between new orders and production PMI at -0.9%, indicating increasing pressure on PPI, which is estimated to decline by 3.4% year-on-year in May[20][22] - Effective demand remains insufficient, constraining economic recovery, with short-term production, investment, and consumption expected to contract[31] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still indicates expansion, supported by the construction and service sectors[25] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a cautious market strategy driven by orders, with corporate profitability likely under pressure due to insufficient effective demand and external uncertainties[31] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-dividend stocks and industry leaders benefiting from policy incentives, particularly in cross-border tourism and consumption[33] - The upcoming July meeting of the Central Political Bureau is noted as a critical observation point for potential policy adjustments in response to external pressures[33]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《2.2%以上，城投开抢？——信用周报 20240526》 - 2025.05.26 固收周报 存单提价风险怎么看？ ——流动性周报 20250602 ⚫ 同业存单继续提价的风险不高 总结而言，上述原因可能导致大行负债压力的前置，但这些矛盾 在 6 月份继续激化的概率不高，同业存单继续提价的空间已经有限。 负债主动前置，也意味的风险的提前暴露，反而减轻了后期的压力。 6 月份的同业存单到期续作压力还在，在大行提前募集 1Y 之后，3M 或是供需两端的共识期限，偏长期限 NCD 供给压力主要看股份行的发 行诉求。大行的存款相对竞争压力小于以往存款降息之后，所谓存款 "脱媒"加大负债压力的同时，也会增加非银产品户对 NCD 和存款的 配置力量，目前影响仅停留在预期层面。信贷投放和长债配置带来的 负债压力，是边际性变化，而非趋势性变化，6 月份政府债券的发行 压力也将减弱。故依然坚持我们对同业存单定价区间的看法，即 1.6% 或是未来资金下行后 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-06-03 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《费用下行支撑盈利改善，关税分担恐 倒压上游价格》 - 2025.05.28 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：资产价格切换或带来投资机会 ⚫ 核心观点 近期市场最吸引投资者关注就是美股在"解放日"后的大幅反弹 和长端美债收益率的上行。前者的主要原因是关税降级、宏观经济韧 性和一季度美股盈利超预期，而后者的主要原因是降息预期的偏鹰调 整和美债供给导致的期限溢价上升。但近期我们观察到这两类资产背 后的逻辑在发生变化。首先是关税的负向冲击很有可能再起，上一轮 "贸易战"中美博弈、拉扯了 2 年之久才达成最终协议，并且近期的 初请失业金人数、资本品订单等指标均指示了私人部门"抢跑"退去 后宏观经济走弱的风险。其次，当前的降息预期偏悲观，从海外投资 者的观点看，大多数认为今年降息的概率较低，同时减税法案在众议 院通过也让市场 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-06-03 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《费用下行支撑盈利改善，关税分担恐 倒压上游价格》 - 2025.05.28 宏观观点 特朗普对等关税法院受挫，有待更换法律依据 ⚫ 核心观点 北京时间 5 月 29 日上午，美国国际贸易法院推翻了特朗普总统 关于对等关税的行政措施。三名法官表示，对等关税已超越《国际紧 急经济权力法》（IEEPA）授予总统的权限。 法院指出，IEEPA 中的"调节……进口"一词并未授权总统征收 无上限的关税；此外，法院提及《1974 年贸易法》122 条款的存在， 证明了即使"美国国际收支逆差巨大且严重"，也无需动用紧急权力， 总统只需在规定的程序限制下采取有限的补救措施即可。 此次判决对总统滥用 IEEPA 加征关税的合法性提出了质疑，若判 决最终落地，意味着包括 10%基础关税、对等关税，以及以"国家紧 急状态"为由（ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated rapid growth in its performance, with 2024 revenue reaching 8.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.011 billion yuan, up 24.77% [4][10]. - The company operates three main business segments that have all shown significant growth, with revenue from molds, large component machinery, CNC machine tools, and others increasing by 22.73%, 20.31%, 29.30%, and 44.78% respectively [5]. - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with new factories in Thailand and Mexico enhancing its service capabilities [6]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 61.34 yuan - Total shares: 800 million, circulating shares: 794 million - Total market capitalization: 49.1 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 48.7 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 63.42/34.51 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 15.3% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 24.24 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.279 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.06%, and a net profit of 520 million yuan, up 29.96% [4]. - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 10.386 billion, 11.767 billion, and 13.076 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 17.85%, 13.29%, and 11.13% [10][12]. - The projected net profits for the same period are 2.356 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.038 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.13%, 14.61%, and 12.50% [10][12]. Future Outlook - The company is set to launch new products in the machine tool sector, including horizontal five-axis machining centers, which are expected to attract a growing customer base [7]. - A new high-end casting project is anticipated to boost revenue from large component machinery, with production expected to commence by mid-2025 [6].

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《微盘股容易被忽略的"看空成本" ——微盘股指数周报 2025025》 - 2025.05.26 《证监会修改《重组办法》，深化并购 重组改革——微盘股指数周报 20250518》 - 2025.05.19 《微盘股会涨到什么时候——微盘股 指数周报 20250511》 - 2025.05.12 《4 月完美收官，5 月看好高波成长— —微盘股指数周报 20250504》 - 2025.05.06 《年报效应边际递减，右侧买入信号 触发——微盘股指数周报 20250427》 - 2025.04.27 《基本面与量价共振，如遇回调即是 买点——微盘股指数周报 20250420》 - 2025.04.21 《"完美买点"触发，后市积极看涨— —微盘股指数周报 20250413》 - 2025.04.14 《高波风格再起，警惕后续风险 —— 微盘股指数周报 20250309》 - 2025.03.10 《4 月是否还会有"最后一跌"？ — —微 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated rapid growth, with 2024 revenue reaching 8.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.011 billion yuan, up 24.77% [4][10]. - The company operates three main business segments, all contributing to its growth: molds, large component machinery products, and CNC machine tools, with respective revenue growth rates of 22.73%, 20.31%, and 29.30% [5]. - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with new factories in Thailand and Mexico, and has introduced energy-efficient electric heating vulcanizing machines, which have begun to see initial market applications [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 61.34 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 49.1 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 15.3% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.24 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.279 billion yuan, a 29.06% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 520 million yuan, up 29.96% [4]. - The company forecasts revenues of 10.386 billion yuan, 11.767 billion yuan, and 13.076 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.356 billion yuan, 2.700 billion yuan, and 3.038 billion yuan [10][12]. Future Projections - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with projected revenue growth rates of 17.85%, 13.29%, and 11.13% for the years 2025 to 2027 [10]. - The introduction of new products in the machine tool segment and the establishment of a machine tool laboratory are anticipated to support ongoing innovation and market expansion [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Insights - The company, Lvtian Machinery, reported a revenue of 2.249 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.29%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 186 million yuan, with a growth of 3.44% [5][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 639 million yuan, a significant increase of 50.11%, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, up by 56.34% [5][6]. - The company is experiencing robust growth in its general machinery and high-pressure cleaning machine segments, with respective revenue increases of 14.20% and 70.07% in 2024 [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 19.26 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 3.3 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a total share capital of 172 million shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.83 [4]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to see revenues of 2.795 billion yuan, 3.463 billion yuan, and 4.266 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.24%, 23.91%, and 23.21% [8][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 251 million yuan, 322 million yuan, and 412 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 34.63%, 28.41%, and 28.16% [8][10]. Product Development and Strategy - The company is expanding its production capacity for general machinery, with a new project expected to complete its main construction in the second half of 2025, which will enhance its product variety and market competitiveness [7]. - Lvtian Machinery is focusing on developing high-value-added new products and aims to implement a global strategy for its proprietary brand, enhancing its resilience and market presence [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated rapid growth in performance, with 2024 revenue reaching 6.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.156 billion yuan, up 60.10% [5]. - The company has seen significant contributions from valves and parts, with exports accounting for over 60% of total sales [6]. - The gross profit margin has improved significantly, reaching 38.10% in 2024, an increase of 6.70 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in high-end markets and has made progress in developing several new products [7]. - The company is also diversifying its operations and gradually establishing overseas factories to enhance competitiveness in international markets [7]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.347 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.79%, and a net profit of 1.415 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 22.41% [8][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.84 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.10 [10][11]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a healthy growth trajectory, with expected revenues and net profits increasing steadily through 2027 [10][11].