Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils continues to weaken, inventory growth has expanded. Due to plate mill maintenance, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 7900 tons week - on - week, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked as the profit per ton of the product is acceptable, so the positive effect of supply contraction is not strong. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils continues to decline, with the weekly apparent demand down 13790 tons week - on - week, high - frequency transactions are at a low level, and the cold - rolled production of downstream industries has declined from a high level, weakening domestic demand resilience. The convergence of domestic and foreign price differences and tariff policy disturbances are fermenting external demand concerns. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continue to weaken, inventory continues to increase and the increase is expanding. Under the weak reality, hot - rolled coil prices are prone to decline, but there are still resistance to decline due to continuous production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that hot - rolled coil prices will continue to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to steel [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3.1489 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7900 tons, a decrease of 7900 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 113300 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 3.07 percentage points compared with the same period [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 3.0621 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13790 tons, a decrease of 13790 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 77000 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 86050 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1130 tons, a decrease of 1130 tons compared with the end of last month, and an increase of 4920 tons compared with the same period [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 3.5663 million tons, an increase of 86800 tons week - on - week, an increase of 86800 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 807300 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils is 77880 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1420 tons, a decrease of 1420 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 10600 tons compared with the same period [2]. - The social inventory of hot - rolled coils is 2.7875 million tons, an increase of 101000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 101000 tons compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 701300 tons compared with the same period [2].

发表于 2025.8.8 期货日报第四版 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 杭州期货圈的限定浪漫 宝城期货 陈栋 立秋已至，暑气未消，但杭州的空气里，已悄然酝酿起一丝独特的芬芳。这芬芳并非来自刻意的熏香， 而是源自那即将苏醒的满城桂香——杭州人心中一抹不可替代的秋日诗意。 杭州，这座兼具古典韵味与现代活力的城市，其期货圈亦带着江南特有的细腻与深沉。不像一线城市 那般喧嚣，此处的交易博弈，往往多了几分内敛，恰似桂花，不事张扬，却以独特香气在不经意间浸润人 心。 清晨，总能在空气中捕捉到一丝若有若无的甜意——极细微、极幽微的清香，像一层薄纱，若有若无 地拂过鼻尖，裹挟着初秋的凉意与期待。若闭上眼深吸一口气，仿佛能将这初绽的桂香纳入肺腑，沉淀至 每一个细胞。那香气清冽中裹着丝丝甜意，不似玫瑰浓烈，不似茉莉奔放，倒像一位娴静的少女，含蓄地 释放芬芳，唯有用心细嗅，方能捕捉其独特气息。身在杭州的秋日里，期货人的心境亦如这桂花：既有对 新行情的期待，亦藏着一丝不安。 午后，阳光透过百叶窗，在地面投下斑驳光影。窗外的桂香愈发清雅悠长，此刻较清晨更显清晰，不 再是缥缈难捉，而是带着沁人心 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 221.18 10.12 211.06 10.12 168.54 52.64 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.09 -0.15 90.24 -0.15 87.02 3.07 表观需求量 210.79 7.38 203.41 7.38 190.76 20.03 钢联建材成交周均值 10.58 1.17 9.41 1.17 10.44 0.14 总库存 556.68 10.39 546.29 10.39 720.15 -163.47 厂内库存 168.20 6.05 162.15 6.05 185.02 -16.82 社会库存 388.48 4.34 384.14 4.34 535.13 -146.65 螺纹钢周度数据（20250808） 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，建筑钢厂复产积极，螺纹钢周产 量环比增10.12万吨，低位回升并至年内高位，且品种吨钢利润较 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 202 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续回落，本周样本钢厂日均铁水产量和进口矿日耗环比再 降，但钢厂盈利状况依旧良好，整体降幅不大，整体维持相对高位，给予矿价支撑，后续需重点关注钢厂限产冲击。与此同 时，国内港口铁矿石到货如期回升，但海外矿商发运则是有所回落，高矿价减量持续存疑，而内矿供应表现平稳，整体矿石 供应稳中有升。目前来看，铁矿石需求边际走弱，而供应在回升，矿市基本面延续弱势，相对利好则是钢厂盈利状况良好， 需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，预计矿价走势延续震荡整理态势，重点关注钢厂限产执行情况。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,712.27 54.37 13,657.90 54.37 15,043.96 -1,331.69 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,013.34 1.25 9,012.09 1.25 9,045.87 -32 ...

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 市场氛围良好，焦煤震荡上行 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 成本端支撑，焦炭高位震荡 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | | 备注： 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [1][4] Group 2: Core View - The reference view for the intraday and medium - term of thermal coal is "oscillation". The overall thermal coal price is expected to run strongly due to good support from peak - season demand and rapid inventory reduction at northern ports [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Supply - At the end of July, some coal mines temporarily stopped production after achieving their production targets, leading to a short - term decline in coal output. However, it is expected to recover rapidly in August. The coal mine over - production rectification by the National Energy Administration has not significantly tightened safety supervision in production areas, and the coal mines in major production areas are fulfilling their responsibility of ensuring supply during the peak season with stable output [4] Demand - The National Climate Center's climate trend forecast for August shows that the temperature in most parts of the country will be close to or higher than the same period of the year. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and residents' daily lives will have certain support this summer [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.847 million tons, with a significant weekly de - stocking of 2.25 million tons, and slightly higher than the same period last year by 235,000 tons [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP growth having slight fluctuations while trade maintains an upward - positive momentum [1][2] - The global commodity market is influenced by multiple factors such as central bank policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical situations, leading to different trends in various commodities [4][5][9] - The financial market presents complex characteristics including bond market fluctuations, exchange rate changes, and the potential of capital market support for科创 enterprises [19][24][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, both showing a decline compared to the previous month [1] - In June 2025, social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and financial institution RMB loans all had different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year [1] - In June 2025, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased 2.8% year - to - date, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5% [1] - In July 2025, export and import values showed year - on - year growth, with exports growing 7.2% and imports growing 4.1% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's trade in July 2025 maintained growth, with exports (in RMB) up 8% and imports up 4.8%, and a trade surplus of 7051 billion yuan [2] - The July 2025 China warehousing index was 50.1%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace, and new orders for bulk commodity warehousing increased [2] - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a "stable" outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to strengthen in the second half of the year [3] - There are differences within the Fed regarding interest - rate policies, increasing the uncertainty of monetary policy [3] 3.2.2 Metals - China's central bank increased its gold reserves in July 2025 for the 9th consecutive month, and global central banks' gold purchases are an important support for gold demand [4] - China's July 2025 rare - earth exports decreased 23% month - on - month, while soybean imports reached a record high and coal imports rebounded [5] - The SPDR Gold Trust's gold holdings increased 0.66% to 959.09 tons as of August 7 [5][6] - Dutch International Bank raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3250 per ounce [5] - London Metal Exchange inventory data on August 6 showed different trends for various metals [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous ten - day period [7] - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's imports of some commodities like iron ore decreased in quantity and price, while others like crude oil had different trends [7] - On August 7, stainless - steel and nickel futures prices rose, boosting market confidence [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 7, international oil prices continued to decline due to OPEC+ production increase plans, weak US economic data, and other factors [9] - A German energy company plans to purchase more natural gas from the US in the future [9] - Citi predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year [9] - Chevron's oil tankers will load oil in Venezuela later this month [9] - Germany's natural gas storage is lower than last year but replenishment is ongoing [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Philippines will suspend rice imports for 60 days starting September 1, which may affect global rice prices [10] - Most listed pig - raising companies had a decrease in pig sales volume in July 2025 compared to June, and pig and pork prices remained at a low level [10][11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 7, the central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan [12] - On August 8, the central bank will conduct 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operations, and analysts expect the central bank to maintain market liquidity through various tools [12] 3.3.2 Important News and Information - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy in the second half of the year [13] - The trading association strengthened the self - regulation of bond underwriting quotes [14] - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased, while gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month [14] - In July 2025, China's foreign trade reached a new high for the year, with exports and imports both growing [14] - The mechanism to support small - and micro - enterprise financing has achieved certain results [15] - The government will strengthen the governance of prominent issues in enterprise - related fines and increase supervision of government credit in enterprise - related matters [15] - In July 2025, the real - estate industry's bond financing increased significantly, and the average financing interest rate decreased [16] - The capital market will strengthen support for science - and technology innovation enterprises [17] - Hong Kong plans to strengthen the regulation of licensed money - lenders [17] - There were various events in the bond market including self - regulation, bondholder meetings, and credit rating adjustments [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed a generally volatile and slightly stronger trend, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declining [19] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The convertible bond index decreased slightly, with some bonds having significant gains or losses [20] - On August 7, money - market interest rates showed different trends, and Shibor short - end rates mostly decreased [21] - Bank - to - bank and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate showed different trends, and some bond - issuing and trading operations had specific results [22] - European and US bond yields had different trends [22][23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On August 7, the on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [24] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research expects the convertible bond market to follow the positive trend of the underlying stocks in August [25] - CITIC Securities believes that the economic fundamentals have limited risks, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of stocks and bonds in the short term [25] - Western Securities' fixed - income research shows that bond funds increased leverage in Q2 2025, and the duration of most types of bond funds reached a historical high [25] - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research predicts the 10 - year Treasury bond's trading range from August to October and points out potential risks [26] - CICC believes that the US economy improved in July 2025, and there are potential impacts on the US stock market and bond yields in the short term, but risk assets have long - term potential [26] - CICC's fixed - income research expects the bond market to continue to fluctuate, and credit spreads may follow interest - rate fluctuations [27] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On August 8, 227 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 151 bonds will be paid, and 186 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [28] 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On August 7, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with some sectors performing strongly and others weakly [29] - The Hong Kong stock market rose, and real - estate and non - ferrous metals led the gains [29] - MSCI adjusted its global index, adding and removing some stocks [29] - The National Healthcare Security Administration held meetings on "healthcare insurance support for innovative medical devices" with participation from many top - tier institutions [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Summary - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weak. The reference view is weak operation, and the core logic is that the decline in coal futures prices leads to the weak oscillation of methanol [1]. Price Quotation Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory - weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is weak operation. The core logic is that the weak supply - demand structure and the decline in domestic coal futures prices on Thursday night lead to the oscillatory - weak trend of the methanol futures 2509 contract, with the futures price slightly down 0.04% to 2394 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Friday [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is to maintain a strong - side volatile operation, and the medium - term view is to rise. The reference view is also a rise. The policy support and positive expectations of anti - involution policies drive the recovery of the stock market's risk appetite, and the overseas uncertainty risks are temporarily suspended, making the short - term market sentiment positive and optimistic. However, some stocks have achieved large gains, so there is a need for technical consolidation in the future [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is strong - side volatile, and the reference view is rising. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is strong - side volatile, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and consolidated in a narrow range. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1852.5 billion yuan, an increase of 93.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The current trading volume of the stock market is above 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating that investors' risk appetite is positive and optimistic. Although the expectation of short - term policy intensification has weakened, the policy support expectation still exists. Overall, it is expected that the stock index will maintain a strong - side volatile operation in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - The report is optimistic about the short - term performance of both gold and copper, with a view of short - term strength for both metals [1][3][5]. - Gold is expected to have a short - term upward trend, a medium - term sideways movement, and an intra - day tendency to be slightly stronger. Copper is also expected to have a short - term upward trend, a medium - term sideways movement, and an intra - day tendency to be slightly stronger [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices remained strong, with London gold approaching $3400 and Shanghai gold reaching above 785 yuan [3]. - **Core Logic**: In early August, the US non - farm payrolls were unexpectedly weak, and inflation rebounded more than expected earlier, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession and driving a rapid rebound in gold prices. The expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to gold prices. On August 7, a new round of "reciprocal tariffs" in the US took effect, reducing market risk appetite and also benefiting gold prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the upper edge of London gold's sideways movement since the second quarter [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, with little change in open interest [5]. - **Core Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic situation is favorable, but recent US economic data have continuously fallen short of expectations, so there is a risk of overseas recession trading. The US stock market opened high and closed low yesterday, and precious metals were strong, reducing market risk appetite. At the industrial level, the electrolytic copper inventory decreased slightly on Thursday compared to Monday, which is beneficial to copper prices. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro environment and less impact from the industrial off - season, copper prices are expected to be in a slightly stronger sideways movement [5].