期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-11-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧延续，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧延续，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both the short - term and medium - term, the views on both coking coal and coke are "sideways trading". The intraday view is "sideways trading with a weak bias", and the overall reference view is a "sideways trading approach" [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Since November, coking coal has been in a continuous correction [5]. - **Core Logic**: The divergence on the supply side has increased. On one hand, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, and the output of 523 coking coal mines improved week - on - week last week. On the other hand, there is a lack of new policy incentives for the coal industry after the production capacity verification in July. The strong supply - side expectations have slowed down, and the upward breakthrough drive is insufficient. However, the expectations of the Politburo meeting in December and the reduction of coal mine output at the end of the year remain to be fulfilled [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The fourth round of price increases for coke has been difficult to implement [6]. - **Core Logic**: In the spot market, the atmosphere of coking coal spot has cooled down. In terms of supply and demand, as of the week of November 14, the total daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants decreased week - on - week, while the daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased week - on - week. The short - term fundamentals have improved, but the sustainability is limited, and there are still concerns about demand [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined. This week, the average daily molten iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills both decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis. With the unimproved profitability of steel mills and production restrictions, the demand for iron ore continues to be weak. Meanwhile, although the arrivals at domestic ports have been falling, the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and returned to the annual high. According to the shipping schedule, the arrivals will rise again. The supply of foreign ore is positive, and the domestic ore production is stable, so the ore supply remains at a high level. Currently, the iron ore demand is weakly stable, and the supply is high, so the fundamentals of the ore market are weak, and the ore price is under pressure. The positive factor is the support from the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the ore price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,054.65, with a week - on - week decrease of 75.06, an increase of 512.17 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 264.73 compared to the same period [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,001.23, with a week - on - week decrease of 74.78, an increase of 151.37 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 171.81 compared to the same period [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,268.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 472.30, an increase of 239.80 compared to last month, and a decrease of 513.10 compared to the same period. The global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,516.40, with a week - on - week increase of 447.38, an increase of 128.05 compared to last month, and an increase of 505.50 compared to the same period [1]. Demand - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 236.28, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.60, a decrease of 0.08 compared to last month, and an increase of 0.48 compared to the same period. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 329.92, with a week - on - week increase of 2.97, an increase of 9.76 compared to last month, and an increase of 2.94 compared to the same period. The 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 291.68, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.95, an increase of 0.06 compared to last month, and a decrease of 0.93 compared to the same period. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at main ports is 75.08, with a week - on - week decrease of 30.88, a decrease of 7.10 compared to last month, and a decrease of 34.90 compared to the same period [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating and slightly stronger", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish and the expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased. Also, the U.S. non - farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, initially leading to a positive market atmosphere but later a general decline in assets. [1][3] - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillating and slightly stronger", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts. Additionally, after the U.S. September non - farm payroll data was released, market sentiment fluctuated, and the spot copper trading improved with a slight decrease in social inventory. [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: The market style switches frequently in the short - term. Initially, the market was optimistic with strong performance in stocks and commodities, but later assets showed a general decline. [3] - **Core Logic**: The U.S. non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the U.S. economy was better than expected, the market's interest rate cut expectation increased, the U.S. dollar index declined, and the U.S. Treasury yield decreased. Technically, the support at the $4000 mark for New York gold and the 920 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold can be observed. [3] Copper (CU) - **Price Movement**: The copper price opened high and closed low last night, and the main contract price fell below the 86,000 - yuan mark. [4] - **Core Logic**: After the U.S. September non - farm payroll data was released, the market risk preference decreased. In the industry, the spot trading improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly on Thursday. Technically, the support at the 86,000 - yuan mark should be noted. [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has changed. The production of plate steel mills has stabilized, supply has rebounded and is at a high level within the year with high inventory pressure. Demand has improved but the improvement space is limited due to unresolved downstream cold - rolling contradictions and stable external demand. The supply - demand pattern has improved slightly, inventory has been reduced again, but the supply pressure remains and demand resilience is doubtful. The fundamentals' improvement is limited, and the positive effect is weak. The relative advantage is the low valuation, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 316.01 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.35 tons, and a month - on - month decrease of 7.55 tons. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 84.53 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.58%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.22% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% [1] Demand - The apparent weekly demand for hot - rolled coils is 324.42 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.83 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 7.47 tons. The downstream cold - rolling contradictions are not resolved, and the external demand is mainly stable, so the demand improvement space is limited [1] Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 402.11 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.41 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 4.48 tons. The in - plant inventory is 78.02 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.50 tons and a month - on - month increase of 0.36 tons. The social inventory is 324.09 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.91 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 4.84 tons [1]

Report Summary of Crude Oil 1. Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday. It is likely to maintain a weakening trend, with the market showing a weak supply - demand structure and geopolitical sentiment in a state of game [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Time - cycle View** - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2601 contract is in a state of oscillation [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2601 contract is in a state of oscillation, and the overall crude oil market is also expected to oscillate [1][5] - Intraday: The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to be weak, and domestic crude oil futures on Friday are expected to maintain a weakening trend [1][5] - **Driving Logic** - The latest OPEC quarterly report shows that the global oil market in the third quarter has changed from "supply shortage" to a "daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", which amplifies the expectation of loose supply [5] - After the geopolitical factors become prominent, the crude oil futures price shows an oscillating and stabilizing trend under the boost of optimistic funds [5] - After digesting the positive factors of the rebound in European diesel prices, the oil market is facing the pressure of oversupply again. The domestic crude oil futures maintained a weakly - oscillating trend in the night session on Thursday, with the futures price slightly lower [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term market game has intensified, and the stock index will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. In the medium - term, it is strong. Although the stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between policy expectation and profit - taking, in the long run, the policy expectation and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the stock index [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the expectation of policy benefits [1]. b) Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and slightly pulled back. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1722.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In November, the incremental policy signals weakened, and the willingness of profitable funds to take profits increased, so the stock index entered a technical consolidation stage. However, in the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflow trends support the stock index [5].

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 207.96 7.96 212.59 -4.63 233.82 -25.86 高炉产能利用率（%） 88.58 -0.22 88.61 -0.03 88.53 0.05 表观需求量 230.79 14.42 232.18 -1.39 234.20 -3.41 钢联建材成交周均值 10.17 0.16 10.43 -0.26 11.61 -1.44 总库存 553.34 -22.83 602.52 -49.18 445.11 108.23 厂内库存 153.32 -7.10 171.71 -18.39 148.72 4.60 社会库存 400.02 -15.73 430.81 -30.79 296.39 103.63 螺纹钢周度数据（20251121） 螺纹钢供需两端均迎来回升，建筑钢厂有所复产，螺纹钢周产 量环比增7.96万吨，供应再度回升并至年内相对高位，加之库存 水平偏高，供应压力有所增加，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to maintain a sideways consolidation in the short term. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - to - long - term expectation of a loose monetary environment still exists. The market driving force is weak, and there is a divergence in the trends among different varieties [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is sideways consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - to - long - term loose expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is sideways, and the reference view is sideways consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued to move in a sideways consolidation yesterday, with a divergence in the trends among varieties. The market driving force is weak. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged yesterday, resulting in a weak short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. The latest economic data such as consumption, investment, and exports have weakened, indicating a lack of effective domestic demand. A relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the medium - to - long - term to stabilize domestic demand, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong need for the policy side to increase efforts this year, and the possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5].