Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The trading logic of the domestic soybean market remains unchanged, with the forward supply and cost supporting the strength of soybean meal. The short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign soybean meal futures prices continues. The palm oil market sentiment weakens, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise to a two - year high [6][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [6] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [6] - **Reference View**: Oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic**: Short - term US soybean futures prices are under pressure at the 1000 - cent integer mark. With the growth of US soybean crushing demand, US soybean oil remains strong due to the growth of biofuel demand, while US soybean meal is under pressure from large production. The domestic soybean market's trading logic depends on forward supply and cost, maintaining strength [6]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [8] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **Core Logic**: The market sentiment of palm oil continues to weaken. It is expected that the report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board next week will show that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil has climbed to a two - year high for five consecutive months because the increase in production exceeds the increase in exports. Short - term palm oil futures prices are greatly affected by market sentiment [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to be weak. The demand is declining while the supply is expected to increase steadily. However, due to the good profit situation of steel mills, the demand has some resilience, which supports the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is a decline, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the oscillating adjustment of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore remains weak. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously falling. But the good profit situation of steel mills limits the decline of demand from its high level, providing support for the ore price. Attention should be paid to the impact of production restrictions. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased as expected, while the shipment from overseas miners has decreased. There is doubt about the continuous reduction under high ore prices. Domestic ore production is stabilizing, and the ore supply is expected to increase steadily. - Overall, the demand is continuously weakening and the supply is increasing steadily, but the good profitability of steel mills gives the ore price support, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the steel mill production restriction situation should be focused on [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, as industrial contradictions accumulate and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. During the off - season, steel prices are under pressure. With the game between long and short factors, it is expected that steel prices will continue the shock adjustment trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that industrial contradictions accumulate and steel prices are under pressure. There are also explanations for price change calculations and definitions of shock - strong/weak [2]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased. The weekly output of rebar has risen significantly, and the supply pressure has increased. The rebar demand has also improved, but the improvement in off - season demand is of doubtful sustainability. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relative positives are the disturbance of production restriction expectations and the strong boost of coking coal and coke. The steel price is expected to continue the shock adjustment trend [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is that they will fluctuate in the short - term, with the short - term view of TL2509 being fluctuating, the medium - term view being fluctuating, and the intraday view being fluctuating and slightly stronger. The general reference view is fluctuating [1][5]. - Although the demand for Treasury bonds has been somewhat suppressed since July due to the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The upward and downward space for market interest rates is limited in the short - term, so Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Fluctuation | Fluctuation | Fluctuation and slightly stronger | Fluctuation | There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short - term is low [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is fluctuating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the reference view is fluctuating [5]. - **Core Logic**: Since July, the demand for Treasury bonds has been affected by the rise in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, resulting in weak performance of Treasury bond futures. However, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and the expectation of monetary easing still exists. As market interest rates approach policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a stable and volatile trend after a round of rapid decline and full release of negative sentiment, with the price finding support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the rebound of domestic coal futures offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [6]. - The prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend under the dominance of bearish sentiment due to the decision of OPEC+ to continue significant production expansion in September [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 63.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.40%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.47% [9]. - As of August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 9.22 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.76 percentage points [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity [9]. - In July 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.5%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.3 percentage points but still in the expansion range [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10] Methanol - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a slight weekly increase of 0.26%, a monthly decrease of 3.28%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.46%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9302 million tons, a weekly increase of 31,300 tons, a significant monthly decrease of 56,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 312,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.55%, a slight weekly increase of 0.59%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.72%, a slight weekly increase of 0.41%; the acetic acid operating rate was 88.79%, a weekly decrease of 4.16%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.84%, a weekly decrease of 2.32% [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a monthly decrease of 2.67 percentage points. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 87 yuan/ton, a significant weekly increase of 249 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 21 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a significant weekly increase of 63,200 tons, a significant monthly increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 293,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 30,900 tons, a significant monthly decrease of 63,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,100 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a weekly decrease of 5 and a decrease of 72 compared to the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 30,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year decrease of 116,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant weekly decrease of 3.029 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.659 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.006 million barrels, a weekly increase of 453,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a weekly increase of 235,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 96.9%, a weekly increase of 1.5 percentage points, a monthly increase of 2.2 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.4 percentage points [13] - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 156,023 contracts, a weekly increase of 2,692 contracts and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared to the June average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 249,973 contracts, a significant weekly increase of 22,728 contracts and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared to the June average [14] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,500 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 14,550 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,420 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,388 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | +32 yuan/ton | +8 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 475.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.5 yuan/barrel | 501.0 yuan/barrel | - 4.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.6 yuan/barrel | +4.4 yuan/barrel | [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper maintained a volatile trend with a slight decline in open interest. The continuous decline of the US dollar index and a positive domestic atmosphere are favorable for copper prices. On the industrial side, on August 7th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. With the domestic market warming up again, copper prices may continue to rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices opened higher and maintained a strong and volatile consolidation during the day, with open interest continuously increasing. The domestic atmosphere has warmed up, and since aluminum has a strong domestic pricing power, its price has risen significantly. However, it is the off - season for downstream demand, aluminum rods are in a state of inventory accumulation, and electrolytic aluminum has also seen inventory build - up. Despite the bearish industrial situation, the positive macro environment is expected to drive the futures price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the July high [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices rose with a reduction in positions, and the main contract price of Shanghai nickel approached the 122,000 yuan mark. The positive domestic atmosphere recently has led to a strengthening of nickel prices, and there is a strong willingness among previous short - sellers to close their positions. The downstream stainless - steel industry is operating strongly. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 122,000 yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 7th, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the 31st and a decrease of 1,000 tons from the 4th [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 7th, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic market was 549,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the 31st and an increase of 2,000 tons from the 4th [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 7th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,250 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,170 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,220 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,470 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts 3.2.1 Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][31][27]. 3.2.3 Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][41][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On August 7, the main contract of coke closed at 1,667.5 yuan/ton, up 1.71% for the day. The position of the main contract at the close was 21,900 lots, a decrease of 1,274 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, up 3.52% week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1,420 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The resurgence of anti - involution news in the coal industry improved the coke futures atmosphere, and the main contract rose at the end of the session. In terms of supply and demand, coke supply stabilized this week while demand declined slightly, and the fundamentals still faced some pressure. However, the profitability rate of downstream steel mills improved month - on - month, and pig iron production showed some resilience, with a relatively moderate seasonal decline. Overall, the fundamentals of coke changed little, the anti - involution news brought back market optimism, and coke futures returned to a relatively strong trend. Attention should be paid to the relevant dynamics of the coking coal supply side [5][34]. - On August 7, the main contract of coking coal closed at 1,229.5 points, up 2.29% for the day. The position of the main contract at the close was 649,400 lots, an increase of 45,809 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 0.9% week - on - week, with the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt being about 1,126 yuan/ton. Frequent inspections of over - production in Shanxi improved the coking coal futures market atmosphere, and the main contract was running strongly. This week, there was no obvious change in the supply and demand of coking coal, maintaining a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lacked support. The medium - and long - term supply contraction expectation dominated the market trend. Overall, with the resurgence of anti - involution news, it is expected that coking coal futures will maintain a relatively strong trend in the near future. Attention should be paid to the relevant dynamics of the coking coal supply side [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - In July, China imported 35.609 million tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 2.572 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%; from January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 257.305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [8]. - On August 7, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,500 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke flat - price was 1,470 yuan/ton, up 3.52% week - on - week, 3.52% month - on - month, down 13.02% year - on - year, and down 24.23% compared with the same period [10]. - Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was 1,420 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, up 1.43% month - on - month, down 12.35% year - on - year, and down 20.22% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 0.86% week - on - week, unchanged month - on - month, down 2.54% year - on - year, and down 20.69% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,520 yuan/ton, down 0.65% week - on - week, up 2.01% month - on - month, up 2.01% year - on - year, and down 23.62% compared with the same period [10]. - The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, unchanged month - on - month, up 7.84% year - on - year, and down 13.16% compared with the same period [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The main contract of coke closed at 1,667.5 yuan/ton, up 1.71%, with a high of 1,698.0 yuan/ton, a low of 1,627.5 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 25,627 lots (a decrease of 2,938 lots), and a position of 21,910 lots (a decrease of 1,274 lots) [14]. - The main contract of coking coal closed at 1,229.5 points, up 2.29%, with a high of 1,254.0 points, a low of 1,185.0 points, a trading volume of 3,371,852 lots (an increase of 749,804 lots), and a position of 649,421 lots (an increase of 45,809 lots) [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - Charts include those related to coke inventory (230 independent coking plants, port total, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (mine mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plants), domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][21][27]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core views, emphasizing that the fundamentals of coke changed little, the anti - involution news restored market optimism, and coke futures returned to a relatively strong trend; for coking coal, with the resurgence of anti - involution news, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal supply side [34][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.03%. Demand improved but its sustainability is questionable, while supply pressure is increasing. Inventory continues to rise and the increase is expanding. Steel prices in the off - season are under pressure. With the dual influence of production restriction expectations and strong coking coal, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price declined with a daily decrease of 0.35%. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continue to weaken, and inventory increases. Although there are continuous production restriction disturbances, the price is expected to continue to run in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily decrease of 0.25%. Ore demand has good resilience, supporting high - level operation of ore prices. However, ore supply is recovering, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation and consolidation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - China's total goods trade import and export value in the first 7 months of 2025 was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, up 7.3%, and imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down 1.6%. In July, the total import and export value was 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7% [6]. - Shanghai will launch the overall renovation project of urban villages in 2026, and complete the renovation of small - beam and thin - plate houses in 2027. It will also continue to carry out the renovation of old residential areas [7]. - In July 2025, China exported 983600 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative steel export was 6.7983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China imported 45200 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the cumulative steel import was 347600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and some other products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the national average price of rebar decreased by 2 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | 3231 | 0.03 | 1648650 | 1628167 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3440 | - 0.35 | 640048 | 1428587 | | Iron ore | 793.0 | - 0.25 | 199704 | 335365 | [11] Related Charts - Include charts of steel and iron ore inventory, steel mill production status, etc., such as steel inventory, iron ore inventory in 45 ports, 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operation rate and capacity utilization rate, etc. [13][18][27] 后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply pressure increases, demand improvement lacks sustainability, inventory rises, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [36]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both weak, inventory increases, and prices are under pressure. However, due to production restriction disturbances, prices are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [35]. - **Iron ore**: Demand has resilience, but supply is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Ore prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [37].

资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-08-07 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250731 | 2025/07 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.30 | 49.70 | 49.40 | | 20250731 | 2025/07 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.50 | 50.20 | | 20250714 | 2025/06 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 41993.00 22899.00 | 32985.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250714 | 2025/06 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.00 | 12.10 | 11.70 | | 20250714 | 2025/06 | M1(货币):同比 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - As the previous policy's bullish expectations are digested by the market, the coal - chemical sector has corrected, and the cost support for methanol has weakened. The fundamental logic will dominate the futures market. With domestic methanol plants resuming production, supply pressure is rising, imports are sufficient, and port inventory is expected to increase significantly. In a weak supply - demand context, the methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Situation - Although there was concentrated maintenance in domestic methanol production areas in early July, the spot price didn't rise significantly due to sufficient downstream inventory. Since late July, previously shut - down plants have resumed production, and the methanol operating rate will gradually increase. As of the week of August 1, the domestic average methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, a 3.28 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last month, and an 11.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The weekly average methanol output was 193.02 tons, a 3.13 - ton increase from the previous week, a 5.69 - ton decrease from the same period last month, and a 31.20 - ton increase from the same period last year. Short - term domestic methanol supply recovery is greater than maintenance losses [3] - Since the third quarter, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been sufficient. Although weather affected the arrival and unloading of imported methanol in China, the overall impact was limited, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation at ports in East and South China is strong. In July, due to typhoons, only 110.69 tons of imported methanol were unloaded, and over 20 tons were postponed to August. Longzhong Information predicts that without weather interference, China's methanol imports in August will reach 155 tons, a monthly record high [4] Demand Situation - The recent shutdown of olefin plants in Zhejiang has increased the inventory accumulation pressure at methanol ports in East China. Although inland CTO procurement has improved apparent port demand, with the expected significant increase in methanol imports in August and no increase in the load of coastal olefin plants, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has risen, possibly leading to methanol flowing from ports to inland areas. As of the week of August 1, the methanol port inventory in East and South China was about 65.03 tons, a 6.32 - ton increase from the previous week, a 15.06 - ton increase from the same period last month, and a 15.80 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory accumulation pressure, low trader purchasing willingness, weak basis, and weak supply - demand expectations have led to a significant decline in spot trading volume [5]