Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that since July, market interest rates have risen significantly, policy rates have shown an anchoring effect, and policy rates have fallen from high levels, causing treasury bond futures to bottom out and rebound. However, the high trading volume in the stock market indicates strong risk appetite, which restricts the upward space of treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation on the strong side; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation on the strong side; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted out yesterday. Due to the significant rise in market interest rates since July, the anchoring effect of policy rates appeared, and policy rates fell from high levels, leading to a bottom - out rebound of treasury bond futures. However, the high trading volume in the stock market restricts the upward space of treasury bond futures, and treasury bond futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The report's core view on动力煤现货 is that it shows a neutral trend in the short - term and medium - term. The coal price is expected to be strong due to good support from peak - season demand and rapid inventory reduction at northern ports [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Supply - At the end of July, some coal mines temporarily stopped production after achieving their production targets, leading to a short - term decline in coal output. However, production is expected to recover rapidly in August. The coal mine over - production rectification by the National Energy Administration has not significantly tightened safety supervision in production areas, and coal mines in major production areas are fulfilling their responsibility of ensuring supply during the peak season, with stable output [4] Demand - The National Climate Center's climate trend forecast for August shows that temperatures in most parts of the country will be close to or higher than the same period of the year. Electricity consumption in the tertiary industry and residential life this summer will have certain support [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.847 million tons, a significant weekly de - stocking of 2.25 million tons, and slightly higher than the same period last year by 235,000 tons [4]

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report predicts that both coking coal and coke futures will operate strongly in the short - term, with coking coal showing a short - term strong trend, medium - term oscillation, and an intraday rise, and coke also having a short - term strong trend, medium - term oscillation, and an intraday rise [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market Performance**: On August 5, the main coking coal contract closed at 1182 points, rising 6.92% intraday. The position of the main contract was 526,300 lots at the close, with a net increase of 38,314 lots compared to the previous trading day. The latest price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1150 yuan/ton, down 0.9% week - on - week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt was about 1126 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: There are continuous disturbances from over - production inspections in Shanxi, and the atmosphere in the coking coal futures market has warmed up. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains unchanged this week, with supply stronger than demand and insufficient fundamental support. The medium - and long - term supply contraction expectation dominates the market trend. It is expected that coking coal futures will maintain a strong operation in the near future [5]. Coke (J) - **Core Logic**: The resurgence of anti - involution news in the coal industry has improved the atmosphere in the coke futures market, and the main contract rose at the end of the session. This week, coke supply stabilized while demand declined slightly, and the fundamentals still face some pressure. However, the profitability rate of downstream steel mills has improved month - on - month, and iron - making output has shown some resilience. The seasonal decline is relatively moderate. The fundamentals of coke have not changed much, and the resurgence of anti - involution news has restored market optimism, leading to a return to strong operation [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The short - term driving factors for the soybean meal market are the expected tightening of future supply and cost - push. The price of soybean meal futures remains prone to rise and hard to fall [6]. - The overall strength of the oil and fat sector, with soybean oil and palm oil taking turns to strengthen. The expected decline in Southeast Asian palm oil supply drives market sentiment, and short - term palm oil futures prices are greatly affected by market sentiment [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: within a week, the view is "oscillating"; medium - term: two weeks to one month, the view is "oscillating"; intraday view is "oscillating strongly", and the reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The high and persistent Brazilian soybean premium has solidified the import cost structure. The domestic soybean futures price trend is stronger than that of US soybeans. The driving factors also include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6][8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: within a week, the view is "oscillating"; medium - term: two weeks to one month, the view is "oscillating"; intraday view is "oscillating weakly", and the reference view is "oscillating weakly" [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The overall strength of the oil and fat sector, with soybean oil and palm oil taking turns to strengthen. The expected decline in Southeast Asian palm oil supply drives market sentiment. The short - term price is greatly affected by market sentiment, and factors such as biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand also play a role [7][8][9]. Other Oils - **Soybean Oil 2509**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating". The reference view is "oscillating weakly". Core factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are limited and steel prices move in an oscillatory manner [2] - Although the market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have oscillated higher, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, the low - inventory pattern limits the downside space, and steel prices will continue to oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is weak oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, and the intraday is weak oscillation. The view is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are limited and steel prices move in an oscillatory manner. The calculation of price fluctuations is based on different rules for products with or without night trading sessions [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The strength of coking coal and coke boosts the black series, and steel futures prices oscillate higher. But the fundamentals of rebar are poor. Although the weekly output has decreased month - on - month and supply has shrunk at a low level, the profit per ton of the variety is good, and the sustainability of production cuts is not strong [3] - The demand for rebar is seasonally weakening, high - frequency indicators have fallen again, and they have been at the low level in the same period in recent years. The off - season characteristics remain, continuing to put pressure on steel prices [3] - The market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have oscillated higher. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The positive factor is that the low - inventory pattern means that industrial contradictions are not significant, and the downside space is limited. Steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no explicit report on the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is that the index is expected to rise in the long - term and show a short - term range - bound pattern. For IH2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "oscillation with a bullish bias", and the overall view is "rise". For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "oscillation with a bullish bias", the medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "rise" [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "rise", the intraday is "oscillation with a bullish bias", and the overall view is "rise". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all stock indices oscillated and rose. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1615.8 billion yuan, an increase of 97.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, and some profit - taking funds have a need to take profits, so the index has a technical consolidation need in the short - term. However, currently, external risk factors are easing, domestic economic data shows resilience, negative drivers are weak, and the risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level. The trading volume of the stock market is above 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a positive and optimistic market sentiment [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakening. The steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The positive factor is that the steel mills' profitability is fair, and the demand remains high, supporting the ore price. However, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded as expected. Even though the overseas miners' shipments have decreased again, the decline is small, and the continuation of the decline under high ore prices is questionable. The overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and the domestic ore production is weakly stable, so the overall supply will increase steadily. Currently, the ore demand has good resilience, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the supply is rising, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the ore price is undergoing volatile adjustment [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakening. The steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The steel mills' good profitability maintains high - level demand, supporting the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded, and the overseas ore supply is expected to increase. The domestic ore production is weakly stable, and the overall supply will increase steadily. The ore demand has good resilience, but the supply is rising, so the fundamentals are expected to weaken. The ore price is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Gold is expected to be short - term bullish, mid - term range - bound, and intraday slightly bullish, with a short - term bullish outlook due to the cooling of tariff disturbances in August, the disappointing July non - farm payrolls at the beginning of the month, and the previous unexpected rebound in inflation, which have increased the expectation of a US economic recession and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and weakened the US dollar index [1][3]. - Copper is expected to be short - term and mid - term range - bound, and intraday slightly bullish, with a wait - and - see attitude. The domestic long - buying sentiment has cooled, and factors such as the off - season of downstream industries, high production of upstream electrolytic copper, and a slight increase in social inventories have put pressure on copper prices [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: rising; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Overall view: short - term bullish [1]. - **Core Logic**: In the context of reduced tariff disturbances in August, the disappointing July non - farm payrolls at the beginning of the month and the previous unexpected rebound in inflation have increased the expectation of a US economic recession, leading to a rapid rebound in gold prices. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may rise with the weakening economic expectation, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to gold prices. Technically, gold prices are still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [3]. Copper - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Overall view: wait - and - see [1]. - **Core Logic**: On Tuesday, the domestic market atmosphere was good, and the non - ferrous metal sector oscillated upward, causing copper prices to rebound. After the Asian session, LME copper continued to plunge, and SHFE copper opened lower at night and oscillated narrowly around the 78,000 - yuan mark. The decline in SHFE copper's open interest to 470,000 contracts indicates a decrease in capital attention. The domestic downstream industries are in the off - season, upstream electrolytic copper production remains high, and social inventories have increased slightly. Technically, attention can be paid to the technical support at the 78,000 - yuan mark [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend with a slight decline in open interest. The market sentiment improved due to the suspension of counter - measures against the US by Europe and the US, leading to an upward trend in the non - ferrous sector. On the industrial side, as copper prices rose, market consumption sentiment weakened, and with the addition of imports, the willingness of holders to sell increased. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the July low [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum futures rebounded with an increase in open interest. The domestic market sentiment improved, and the non - ferrous sector generally rose. In the industrial aspect, it was the off - season for downstream industries, and both aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum showed inventory accumulation. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the 40 - day moving average [4]. - **Nickel**: The main contract price of nickel fluctuated narrowly below 121,000 yuan, and the open interest of Shanghai nickel continued to decline. The domestic market sentiment was good, and the non - ferrous sector generally rose. The industrial logic remained unchanged from the previous period, and the prices of ferronickel and nickel sulfate both increased. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 5, affected by the US tariff increase on copper semi - finished products, some domestic copper processing exports to the US were under pressure. A copper tube enterprise's goods arriving in the US on August 5 were additionally taxed 50%, and the comprehensive tariff for copper tube exports to the US reached 97%. As a result, the US customers' subsequent un - signed orders were suspended. On August 4, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 134,300 tons, an increase of 9,300 tons compared to the 28th and 13,000 tons compared to the 31st [7]. - **Aluminum**: On August 5, the total inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong and Wuxi was 92,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons. On August 4, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 547,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons compared to the 28th and 22,000 tons compared to the 31st [7]. - **Nickel**: On August 5, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 123,290 yuan/ton with a premium of + 2250 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was 121,590 yuan/ton with a premium of + 550 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel was 124,340 yuan/ton with a premium of + 3300 yuan/ton; and nickel beans were 123,590 yuan/ton with a premium of + 2550 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, and SHFE inventory [35][38][39]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 5 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 煤矿超产检查发酵，煤焦期货再次走强 核心观点 焦炭：煤炭行业反内卷消息扰动再现，带动焦炭期货氛围好转，主力合约 尾盘拉涨。供需角度，本周焦炭供应企稳，需求小幅下降，基本面仍有一 定压力。不过下游钢厂盈利率环比改善，铁水产量也表现出一定韧性，季 节性下滑的幅度较为缓和。整体来看，焦炭基本面变化不大，反内卷消息 扰动再现，市场乐观情绪修复，焦炭期货重回偏强运行，继续关注焦煤供 应端相关动态。 焦煤：山西超产检查扰动不断，焦煤期货市场氛围回暖，主力合约偏强运 行。8 月 05 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1182 点，日内上涨 6.92%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 52.63 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+38314 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1150.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%，折合期货仓单成本约 1126 元/吨。本周，焦煤供需暂无明显变化， 维持供强需弱格局，基本面支撑不足，中长期供应收缩预期主导盘面走 向。整体来看，反内卷扰动再现，预计近期焦煤期货维持偏强 ...