1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of accelerating global energy transition and tightening mineral resource constraints, recycled copper has evolved from a supplementary resource to a strategic pillar for ensuring copper resource supply security and supporting green - low - carbon development. It is crucial for filling future supply - demand gaps and achieving sustainable development. In China, recycled copper industry has triple core values: breaking resource bottlenecks, reshaping smelting profitability, and supporting national strategies and industrial stability. The government also provides policy support for its development [35][36][37] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Importance of Recycled Copper - Globally, recycled copper helps alleviate the growing pressure on copper resource supply. By 2040, half of global copper demand will be for clean - energy technologies, and by 2050, total global copper demand is expected to increase by over 50%. However, copper mining faces challenges such as declining ore grades, slow new - mine approvals, and long development cycles. Recycled copper fills the supply - demand gap through resource recycling [7] - In China, recycled copper has become a key strategic fulcrum for breaking industrial dilemmas and ensuring national resource security. Due to factors like resource nationalism in major overseas mineral - producing countries, declining grades of old mines, and delayed new - project launches, global copper supply growth has slowed, and China's high dependence on imported copper concentrates (over 70%) has led to low processing fees and squeezed smelting profits [4][8] 3.2 Global Recycled Copper Situation - Since 2021, as global copper production has risen, the proportion of recycled copper in copper production has also increased, indicating a significant rise in global recycled copper production. The growth rate of global recycled copper production is higher than that of primary copper production, largely due to the increase in China's recycled copper production [12][15] - In the United States, the annual waste - copper generation can cover over 80% of its refined - copper consumption, and its recycled - copper consumption accounts for nearly 50% of refined - copper consumption, thanks to the "urban mine" effect. The high social copper accumulation and large - scale electronic waste generation contribute to this situation [18] 3.3 Domestic Recycled Copper Situation - After the 2020 pandemic, China's copper production increased significantly, benefiting from the transfer of overseas smelting capacity and the continuous rise in domestic recycled copper production. From 2020 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate of recycled copper reached 8.19%. China's proportion of recycled copper in copper production is over 30%, higher than the global average but lower than that of the US [22] - Tight copper - concentrate supply has led to negative copper smelting processing fees (TC), stimulating smelters' demand for recycled copper. In 2024 and 2025, China's electrolytic copper production remained high, with the average monthly output from January to October 2025 exceeding 1.1 million tons, largely due to the supplement of recycled copper [3][25][27] - The development of recycled copper in China can break resource bottlenecks, enhance supply - chain autonomy, reshape smelting profitability, and support national strategies and industrial stability. It also has significant environmental advantages, supporting China's "dual - carbon" goals [31][32][34] 3.4 Summary - Recycled copper has become a strategic pillar for ensuring copper resource supply security and supporting green - low - carbon development. In China, it has triple core values. The government's policy support will make the strategic position of recycled copper more prominent in the future [35][36][37]

Group 1: Report Summary - The main contract LC2601.GFE of lithium carbonate futures closed at 99,300 yuan/ton, up 5,780 yuan/ton (+6.18%) from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 88,940 yuan/ton, up 1.74% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The current basis was -9,220 points, with a negative basis (spot discount), 2,040 points weaker than the previous day, and the basis has weakened overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 26,766 lots, an increase of 155 lots (+0.58%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The demand for energy storage cells exceeded expectations [4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Lithium-related product prices showed different changes, with some prices rising compared to the previous day and week, while others remained unchanged [6]. - For example, the price of Australian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate was in the range of $1,180 - $1,240/ton, up $20 - $60 from the previous day and $200 - $210 from the previous week [6]. Group 3: Related Charts - The report includes various charts showing the price trends of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, and other products, as well as the basis of lithium carbonate, the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, etc. [8] - There are also charts for cathode and ternary materials, showing the price trends of manganese acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [10][14] - Additionally, there are charts for other relevant data of lithium carbonate futures, such as trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts [16][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the report. It mainly provides a series of futures arbitrage data for different commodities on various dates. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Power Coal - The basis of power coal from November 12 to November 18, 2025, remained at 32.60 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - For fuel oil, the basis on November 12, 2025, was -22.60 yuan/ton, and the ratio data on different dates are also provided [7] - For INE crude oil, the basis and ratio data on different dates are presented [7] - For the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, the data on different dates are given [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rubber on November 18 was -445 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol for 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 75 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on November 18 was 2266 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of螺纹钢,铁矿石,焦炭, and焦煤 from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 on November 18 was 160.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of螺纹钢,铁矿石,焦炭, and焦煤 for 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of螺纹钢 was 49 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of螺/矿,螺/焦炭,焦炭/焦煤, and螺 - 热卷 from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the螺/矿 ratio on November 18 was 3.93 [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of copper on November 18 was 190 yuan/ton [29] (2) London Market - On November 18, 2025, for LME non - ferrous metals, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (35.33) [34] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of豆一,豆二,豆粕,豆油, and玉米 from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of豆一 on November 18 was -129 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products for 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of豆一 was 27 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of豆一/玉米,豆二/玉米,豆油/豆粕,豆粕 - 菜粕,豆油 - 棕榈油,菜油 - 豆油, and玉米 - 玉米淀粉 from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the豆一/玉米 ratio on November 18 was 1.92 [40][41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of沪深300,上证50,中证500, and中证1000 from November 12 to November 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of沪深300 on November 18 was 13.19 [52] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of沪深300,上证50,中证500, and中证1000 for次月 - 当月 and次季 - 当季 are presented. For example, the次月 - 当月 spread of沪深300 was -170 [52]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with intensified short - term long - short game. The medium - term view is strong. The intraday view is bullish. The overall situation is that the rhythm of policy - driven positive expectations and the rhythm of profit - taking by profit - making funds are in a short - term oscillation game. In the long - term, policy - driven positive expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the stock index [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the expectation of policy benefits [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes pulled back slightly yesterday, with the three - market turnover of 194.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1.56 billion yuan from the previous day. In the short - term, policy signals are weakening, geopolitical factors are increasing risk - aversion sentiment, and profit - taking willingness is rising as the stock index approaches the previous high, so there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long - term, policy - driven positive expectations and capital inflow trends support the stock index [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". Coastal city temperature drops and port coal prices are temporarily stable. Due to factors such as approaching peak - winter season, low coal inventory in northern ports, and expected supply contraction at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly running recently. However, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, cooling market sentiment. It is expected that thermal coal will start high - level oscillation in the short term [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Inventory - As of November 13, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.092 million tons, with a weekly cumulative increase of 56,800 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 3.244 million tons [4] Market Driving Factors - Multiple factors such as approaching peak - winter season, low coal inventory in northern ports, and expected supply contraction at the end of the year drove the recent strong operation of coal prices. The mention of energy supply guarantee by the National Development and Reform Commission cooled market sentiment [4]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 偏空氛围主导，焦煤震荡回调 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本支撑下滑，焦炭弱势运行 | 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillating trend with weak upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products. The current situation of the iron ore market is weak, and there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore market, with high supply and limited improvement in demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are expected to be oscillating, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line. The core logic is that the current situation is weak and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Although the terminal consumption of ore has increased, the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, with limited room for improvement. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has been continuously decreasing, but the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and reached a high for the year. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will increase. The supply of foreign ore remains active, and the supply of domestic ore is stable, so the ore supply remains at a high level. - Thanks to the switch of the arbitrage logic and the improvement of ore demand, the ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, due to the high supply, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore market, and the upward driving force is not strong [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-19 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, due to the Fed turning hawkish, the gold price has declined in the short - term. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the downward revision of the interest - rate cut expectation may not be sustainable and subsequent economic data will be crucial for its short - term trend [1][3]. - For copper, although there is short - term volatility due to the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs, in the long - run, it is expected to be strong as macro - economic easing and supply contraction are likely to support the copper price [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: The New York gold hit the bottom and rebounded at the $4000 mark. The gold price is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term shock, and intraday shock - weak pattern [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks have led to a decline in the market's interest - rate cut expectation. As of November 18, the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%, compared to over 70% in early November. The focus should be on the September US non - farm payroll data to be released this Thursday and subsequent economic data, which will determine the short - term trend of precious metals. Technically, the $4000 mark support should be monitored [3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: The copper price rebounded last night. The main contract price of Shanghai copper once recovered the 86,000 mark and then declined, with a slight increase in open interest. It is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term strong, and intraday shock - strong pattern [4]. - **Driving Factors**: The market's expectation of a December 2025 interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%. The London copper is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction are expected to support the copper price. Technically, the long - short battle at the 86,000 mark should be monitored [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a stage of game between cost - driven factors and industrial chain pressure. For soybean meal, there is a divergence between domestic and foreign markets, with a pattern of strong foreign and weak domestic prices. For soybean oil, it is affected by raw material costs and external market prices, and the high inventory is the main resistance to price increases. For palm oil, it is in a stage of bottom - building with limited rebound space [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean futures price is supported by strong crushing and good export expectations, providing cost support for domestic imported soybeans. However, the abundant domestic soybean arrivals and high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills suppress the basis to be continuously negative. Short - term attention should be paid to South American weather and domestic inventory reduction rhythm [5] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The soybean oil market is affected by the cost change of raw material soybeans and the price of US soybean oil in the external market. The domestic supply is very loose, with high inventory (up to nearly 1.2 million tons) and weak terminal consumption, resulting in light spot market transactions. Before there are obvious signals of supply - demand change, the price is expected to oscillate strongly within the current range [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][8] - **Core Logic**: The BMD crude palm oil rebounds from a low level, but the increase in Malaysian production and sluggish exports in November are the main drags. The domestic palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures price is in a stage of bottom - building, with limited rebound space [8]