Group 1: Report Investment Rating and Core View - The short - term view of the stock index futures is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "strong", and the intraday view is "bullish". The reference view is "range - bound oscillation" [1][5] - The core logic is that as the Shanghai Composite Index reaches the 4000 - point mark, the stock valuation has risen significantly, the willingness of profit - taking funds to stop profits has increased, and the upward momentum of the stock index has weakened. However, the positive policy expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market provide medium - and long - term support for the stock index. The future trend depends on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy positive expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds [5] Group 2: Specific Information of IH2512 - For IH2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the positive policy expectations [1] Group 3: Price and Trading Volume Information - Yesterday, all stock indexes opened higher and closed lower, with an overall decline. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.0139 trillion yuan, a decrease of 180.5 billion yuan from the previous day [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber futures 2601 contracts are expected to run strongly, with Shanghai rubber showing a slightly stronger trend in the short - term and both being in an oscillatory state in the medium - term [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View**: Short - term is weak, medium - term is oscillatory, intraday is strong, and the reference view is strong operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The U.S. Senate's key step to end the federal government "shutdown" re - stimulates investors' risk appetite, and market optimism recovers. With the enhancement of macro factors and a decent supply - demand structure in the rubber market, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price slightly rising 0.03% to 15,140 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View**: Short - term is weak, medium - term is oscillatory, intraday is strong, and the reference view is strong operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The U.S. Senate's agreement to end the federal government "shutdown" boosts market optimism and investors' risk appetite. With the enhancement of macro factors and a decent supply - demand structure in the rubber market, the market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become more cautious. The domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price slightly rising 0.97% to 10,375 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strong trend on Wednesday [7]

宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 基本面未好转，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 政策扰动下双焦价格回落，黑色情绪趋弱，相应的螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，供应收缩但降幅 不大，且库存水平偏高，压力未见缓解。与此同时，螺纹需求有所走弱，高频指标下行且继续位于 近年来同期低位，而下游行业并未改善，淡季需求预期走弱，继续承压钢价。目前来看，供需双弱 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation and weakening" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the current situation is weak and the driving force for the upward movement of ore prices is not strong [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Driving Logic - The decline of coking coal and coke led to the withdrawal of arbitrage funds, causing the iron ore futures price to rebound from a low level. However, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production is weakening, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated. Demand is unlikely to improve substantially, which will still suppress ore prices. At the same time, both the arrival of ore at domestic ports and the shipments of overseas miners have declined, but they are still at relatively high levels this year. Domestic ore production is weakly stable, and the supply pressure remains. In summary, iron ore demand is weakening while supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the ore market are weak, and the ore price will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term outlook of being weak, a medium - term outlook of being volatile, and an intraday outlook of being strong [1][5] - The core logic is that demand expectations drive the crude oil market to be oscillating and strong. Market sentiment has improved, and the market has returned to the supply - demand fundamental - driven situation. Optimistic factors such as the rise in European diesel prices and the increase in winter heating demand expectations have promoted the sharp rise in crude oil futures prices [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Performance - On Tuesday night, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices rose sharply. The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract closed up 2.01% to 471.1 yuan/barrel [5] Driving Factors - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", and market sentiment has improved, boosting investors' risk appetite [5] - As geopolitical emotions are gradually digested, the crude oil futures market has returned to the supply - demand fundamental - driven situation [5] - European diesel prices have risen sharply, and winter heating demand expectations have increased [5] Outlook - It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract may maintain a strong trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to operate weakly. In the short - term, it is weak; in the medium - term, it is oscillating; and on the day, it is also weak [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time Cycle and View Definitions - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakish, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongish, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. The strongish/weakish description is only for the intraday view [1][2][3] 3.2 Price and Market Analysis of Methanol - The recent agreement in the US Senate to end the federal government "shutdown" has improved market sentiment and investors' risk appetite. Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase. The methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract oscillated, with the futures price slightly rising 0.00% to 2094 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract will maintain a weak trend on Wednesday [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。从宏观基本面来看，由于内需有效需求不足的问题仍存， 中长期来看 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约仍为 LC2601.GFE。主力合约收盘价 86540 元/吨，较前日下跌 700 元/吨（-0.80%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现 上升走势。 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 82360 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.97%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 11 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂震荡企稳 【基差分析】当前基差为-4400 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走强 190 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓 ...

Overall Information - Report title: "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report" [1][2][5] - Report date: November 11, 2025 [5] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened higher and then fell back, maintaining a volatile trend during the day with little change in open interest. The recent decline of the US dollar index and the agreement in the US Senate to end the government shutdown have boosted market risk appetite. The spot premium has rebounded. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 87,000 yuan mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum opened higher and then fell back, with a weak intraday oscillation and open interest increasing first and then decreasing. The recent decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for non-ferrous metals. As aluminum prices rise, downstream purchasing willingness has declined. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [7]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly, with open interest increasing when prices fell and decreasing when prices rebounded. The weak industry continues to put pressure on nickel prices, and nickel prices have not recovered above the 120,000 yuan mark even when the non-ferrous metal sector is relatively strong. Continuous attention should be paid to the resistance at the 120,000 yuan level [8]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to Cochilco data, Codelco's copper production in September decreased by 7% month-on-month to 115,600 tons. On November 10, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 198,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from last Thursday [10]. - **Aluminum**: On November 10, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 616,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 11, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 123,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,500 - 3,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 3,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -100 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. Related Charts Copper - **Base difference**: Chart 1 shows the copper base difference [13]. - **Domestic visible inventory**: Chart 3 shows the domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory) [14]. - **LME cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart 5 shows the LME copper cancelled warrant ratio [15]. - **Overseas exchange inventory**: Chart 4 shows the overseas copper exchange inventory [19]. - **SHFE warrant inventory**: Chart 6 shows the SHFE warrant inventory [20]. Aluminum - **Base difference**: Chart 7 shows the aluminum base difference [24]. - **Monthly spread**: Chart 8 shows the aluminum monthly spread [30]. - **Domestic social inventory**: Chart 9 shows the electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory [26]. - **SHFE - LME ratio**: Chart 11 shows the SHFE - LME ratio [28]. - **Overseas exchange inventory**: Chart 10 shows the electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX) [32]. - **Aluminum rod inventory**: Chart 12 shows the aluminum rod inventory [34]. Nickel - **Base difference**: Chart shows the nickel base difference [38]. - **LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio [40]. - **LME nickel trend**: Chart 17 shows the LME nickel trend [41]. - **SHFE inventory**: Chart 16 shows the SHFE nickel inventory [43]. - **Monthly spread**: Chart shows the nickel monthly spread [45]. - **Nickel ore port inventory**: Chart 18 shows the nickel ore port inventory [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **螺纹钢**: The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and both trading volume and open interest remained stable. In the current situation, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the cost still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **热轧卷板**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot - rolled coil remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, the cost side still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **铁矿石**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Energy Supply for Heating Season**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, requiring all regions and relevant enterprises to ensure stable energy production and supply, and improve the performance of medium - and long - term energy contracts, especially focusing on coal supply for northern heating areas [7]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: From January to October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 51.6% of the total vehicle sales for the first time [8]. - **Anti - Dumping Ruling**: On November 10, 2025, Thailand's anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sub - committee decided to continue to impose a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled stainless steel products from China. The anti - dumping duty for Ningbo Baoxin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. is 8.5%, and for other Chinese producers/ exporters is 33.32%. Some producers/ exporters are exempted from the duty [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,308 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 773 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 798 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 10.36 yuan/ton, down 0.09 yuan/ton, and from Brazil was 23.41 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan/ton. The SGX swap (current month) was 103.29, up 0.70, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 103.00, up 0.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,025 | - 0.33 | 753,110 | - 296,403 | 1,923,701 | - 32 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3,242 | 0.03 | 324,368 | - 50,997 | 1,326,892 | - 19,179 | | Iron Ore | 763.0 | 0.20 | 262,391 | - 65,052 | 530,352 | - 11,250 | 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which can be used to analyze the inventory trends of steel products [16][17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts on the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines are provided, which are helpful for analyzing the supply and demand situation of iron ore [21][22][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts on the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate of independent electric furnaces are provided, which can be used to understand the production and operation status of steel mills [29][30][31]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 4.05 tons, and demand decreased by 13.66 tons. The fundamentals have not improved, and inventory reduction pressure is large. Although the cost provides support, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 5.40 tons, and demand decreased by 17.59 tons. Industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices are under pressure. The cost provides support, and the price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory has increased significantly. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply remains at a high level. The price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [39].