Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory but bullish respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Movement and View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of crude oil 2509 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory but bullish respectively, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed up 2.49% to 527.5 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory but bullish trend on Wednesday [5]. Core Logic - The macro - atmosphere is bullish, with the third round of Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden. According to the consensus, the 24% suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures will be extended as scheduled, improving the macro - factor and boosting the risk appetite in the commodity market [5]. - US President Trump's disappointment with Russian President Putin and shortening of the deadline for Putin have enhanced the geopolitical sentiment in the oil market [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Movement and View** - The short - term view of methanol 2509 is oscillating and strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating and strong, and the reference view is to run strongly [1] - On Tuesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly closed up 1.03% to 2442 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] - **Core Logic** - This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. After a day - and - a - half negotiation, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were carried out on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. The macro - sentiment will improve, and under the support of a bullish atmosphere, the methanol futures may show an oscillating and strong trend [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, with an overall view of oscillation due to the rising risk appetite in the stock market and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term is within a week, the medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillate, oscillate, and oscillate weakly respectively, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is the rising risk appetite in the stock market and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday. Due to the mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors, the risk appetite in the stock market rose rapidly, and the stock - bond seesaw effect emerged, causing treasury bond futures to face short - term pressure. However, the continuous rise of market interest rates will trigger the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, limiting the upward space of market interest rates and the downward space of treasury bond futures. From a macro - policy perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, future monetary policy will remain relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has started to decline. However, steel mills' profitability is good, and there is still resilience in ore demand, which supports the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound. The supply of ore is expected to increase due to the continuous increase in overseas miners' shipments and the recovery of domestic ore production. The ore price has stopped falling and rebounded again, but the market fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward driving force is limited. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and ore terminal consumption is falling. But steel mills' good profitability provides support for ore demand. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased, but it will rebound according to shipping schedules. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and domestic ore production is recovering, so the ore supply is expected to rise. The ore price has rebounded due to demand resilience and improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward drive is limited. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the performance of finished products should be noted [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a downward bias respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that strong expectations have fermented again, leading to an oscillatory increase in steel prices [2]. - Strong expectations have boosted the steel market again, supporting the strengthening of steel prices. However, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of rebar under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force needs to be tracked. The low - inventory situation means that the real - world contradictions are not significant. In the short term, steel prices will oscillate with a upward bias under the support of positive sentiment, and attention should be paid to domestic and foreign policies [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a downward bias. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the re - fermentation of strong expectations driving steel prices to rise oscillatively [2]. Market Driving Logic - The re - emergence of production - restriction disturbances and policy expectations during major meetings have warmed up the sentiment in the steel market, causing steel prices to strengthen again. Rebar supply and demand patterns have changed little. Weekly rebar production has recovered as expected, and with good profit per ton, there is room for an increase in supply, which is expected to return to a high level. Rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing month - on - month, mainly due to the release of speculative demand. The improvement in off - season demand needs to be tracked for its sustainability as downstream industries have not improved [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate strongly in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with coking coal driven by improved fundamental expectations and coke supported by the fourth price increase and cost from coking coal [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Short - term: oscillating and strong; Medium - term: oscillating and strong; Intraday: rising; Overall view: strong operation. The core logic is the improved fundamental expectations [1] - **Coke (J2509)**: Short - term: oscillating and strong; Medium - term: oscillating and strong; Intraday: rising; Overall view: strong operation. The core logic is the fourth price increase [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Coking Coal (JM)**: - Spot price: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port is 1200.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50% [5] - Driving factors: "Anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification" policies, but the actual impact needs verification. After capacity optimization and upgrading, the long - term fundamentals are expected to improve, and the futures return to a strong trend after a short - term correction [5] - **Coke (J)**: - Futures performance: On the night session of July 29, after two days of correction, the market became optimistic again, and the main contract rose by more than 6% [6] - Spot price: The fourth price increase was implemented on July 29, and the FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at the port rose to 1420 yuan/ton [6] - Supply: As of July 25, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons [6] - Profit: The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent sample coking plants this week was - 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 tons but 2.62 tons higher than the same period last year [6] - Overall situation: The fundamental pressure of coke is not large, and the medium - and long - term improvement expectation of coking coal provides cost support, so the futures strengthen again after a short - term correction [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of agricultural products in the commodity futures market vary. Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as policies, supply and demand, and trade agreements [5][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The futures price of soybean meal is affected by market sentiment, fund position - changing, and oil - meal arbitrage. Future supply expectations are influenced by Sino - US negotiation results, and short - term soybean futures prices will mainly oscillate. It is also affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [5][7]. 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Market sentiment is boosted by news of domestic soybean oil exports. The active oil - meal arbitrage funds drive the rebound of oils and fats. It is also affected by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7][8]. 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: The trade agreement between the EU and Indonesia has increased the optimistic expectations for palm oil demand. It is also affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7][9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view for the IH2509 variety is a shock, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the intraday view is a shock - biased upward trend, with an overall view of an upward trend. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. - For the IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is a shock - biased upward trend, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the overall reference view is an upward trend. The core logic is that the stock indices oscillated and rose yesterday, with the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reaching 1829.3 billion yuan, an increase of 63.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The market sentiment is positive, and the trading volume is at a high level. However, from a technical perspective, some stocks have risen significantly since late June, and some profit - taking funds may seek to lock in profits, so the stock indices may need a period of shock consolidation. In general, the stock indices will be mainly shock - biased upward in the short term, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Views Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is a shock, the medium - term is an upward trend, the intraday is a shock - biased upward trend, and the overall view is an upward trend, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is a shock - biased upward trend, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the overall reference view is an upward trend. The market is positive with high trading volume, but there may be profit - taking pressure, and short - term shock - biased upward movement is expected, with attention on policy guidance [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to profit - taking by long positions and a collective correction in the domestic commodity futures market [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend, influenced by the decline of domestic coal futures and a weak supply - demand fundamental [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to stabilize with fluctuations as the negative impact of production increase fades, the original production increase plan is realized, and it is the peak oil - consuming season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 640,400 tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.70% to 75,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.42% to 564,600 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also changed [8]. - As of July 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a 1.93 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 10.06 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a 0.25 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.98 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [8]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a 5.7 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year and a 3.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%, accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%, a 1.06% increase from the previous week, a 6.35% decrease from the previous month, and a 15.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly average methanol production was 1.8989 million tons [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed to varying degrees. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.42%, and the methanol to olefin futures profit decreased significantly [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 587,100 tons, a 0.89 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a 53,000 - ton increase from the previous month, and a 254,100 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422, a decrease of 2 from the previous week and 55 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week and 27,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 419 million barrels, a significant decrease of 3.169 million barrels from the previous week and 17.492 million barrels from the same period last year. The refinery operating rate was 95.5% [13]. - As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased significantly compared to the previous week, while the net long positions in Brent crude oil also decreased significantly [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | 15,010 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 110 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,442 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2,434 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | + 8 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 515.0 yuan/barrel | + 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes [17][29][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and rose. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1829.3 billion yuan, an increase of 63.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The current market sentiment remains positive and optimistic, with the stock market trading volume at a relatively high percentile level, and investors' risk appetite continues to recover. However, from a technical perspective, since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, and some profit - taking funds may need to take profits, so the stock indices may need a period of consolidation. In general, the stock indices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the Political Bureau meeting. Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering that the stock indices continue to trend upward, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a moderate bullish view [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On July 29, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.17% to close at 2.934; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.50% to close at 4.235; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.39% to close at 4.367; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.39% to close at 4152.02; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.65% to close at 6773.88; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.63% to close at 6.431; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.63% to close at 2.569; the ChiNext ETF rose 1.75% to close at 2.383; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.78% to close at 2.968; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21% to close at 2808.59; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.35% to close at 1.13; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.29% to close at 1.10 [6] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of the 50ETF option was 92.74 (previous day: 97.75), and the position PCR was 103.12 (previous day: 97.48) [7] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in August 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets were reported. For instance, the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the 50ETF option in August 2025 was 15.93%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 8.15% [8] 3.2 Related Charts - Multiple charts were presented, including the trends, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms of various options such as the 50ETF option, 300ETF option (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 Index option, CSI 1000 Index option, 500ETF option (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), ChiNext ETF option, Shenzhen 100ETF option, SSE 50 Index option, STAR 50ETF option, and E Fund STAR 50ETF option [10][20][23]