Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. The price center of the contract slightly moved up to around 15,200 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.56% increase at 15,220 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 80 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market has returned to a market dominated by supply - and - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,117 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,084 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.67% increase at 2,108 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 103 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - and - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 472.2 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 464.9 yuan/barrel, closing with a 1.58% increase at 469.1 yuan/barrel. The sharp rise in European diesel prices and the increasing expectation of winter heating demand have led to a recovery of optimism in the oil market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.74% to 67,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 0.60% to 381,700 tons. In the week ending November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 7.03 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.51 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 3% and year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000, and it is expected that the annual sales will exceed one million and may even reach 1.1 million [9][10]. - **Methanol**: In the week ending November 7, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.63%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9921 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,900 tons, and a significant increase of 96,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid decreased week - on - week, while the MTBE operating rate increased slightly. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 113 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 238 yuan/ton. The total methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2861 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,100 tons, and a significant increase of 251,800 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 386,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,000 tons, and a significant decrease of 34,900 tons compared with the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: In the week ending October 31, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 414, a week - on - week decrease of 6 and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.651 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.51 million barrels per day, reaching a historical high. The commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 5.202 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.49 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased slightly week - on - week, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory also increased slightly. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 86.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5 percentage points. The average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil increased significantly week - on - week but decreased significantly compared with the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased significantly week - on - week but increased significantly compared with the October average [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 15,220 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,080 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | 2,108 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | - 28 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 429.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 469.1 yuan/barrel | +7.8 yuan/barrel | - 39.7 yuan/barrel | - 8.0 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts of rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts of methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][31]. - **Crude Oil**: The report includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes multiple aspects including macro - data, commodity investment, financial news, and stock market trends, and presents various viewpoints and expectations for different industries. For example, in 2026, fiscal policy is expected to continue a moderately expansionary trend, and monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose tone [32]. - The Chinese economy is expected to have new momentum and new forces emerging in 2026, and it is recommended to invest in Chinese A - share assets [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 4.8% at constant prices, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1]. - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month [1]. - In September 2025, M1 year - on - year growth was 7.2%, up from 6.0% in the previous month; M2 year - on - year growth was 8.4%, down from 8.8% in the previous month [1]. - In October 2025, CPI year - on - year was 0.2%, up from - 0.3% in the previous month; PPI year - on - year was - 2.1%, up from - 2.3% in the previous month [1]. 2. Commodity Investment 2.1 Comprehensive - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds have been fully disbursed by October 29, 2025 [2]. - As of November 11, 2025, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 29 had negative basis [3]. - The US will suspend the implementation of export control penetration rules from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026 [3]. 2.2 Metals - From November 15, 2025, the minimum fixed - amount investment for accumulated gold in CITIC Bank will be adjusted from 1000 yuan to 1500 yuan, and the daily accumulation starting amount for gold in China Construction Bank will be raised from 1000 yuan to 1200 yuan [5]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. Deutsche Bank predicts future prices for silver, platinum, palladium, gold, copper, aluminum, and zinc [5]. 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The National Development and Reform Commission will ensure energy supply, and on November 11, 2025, the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea was put into production [8]. 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The US's new sanctions on Russian crude oil and the expected end of the US government shutdown boosted the price of Brent crude oil [9]. - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to B50 next year, which may affect palm oil exports and prices [9]. 2.5 Agricultural Products - On November 10, 2025, the price of white - striped pigs in Beijing Xinfadi Market decreased compared to the average price on October 31 [12]. - Germany's oilseed industry association UFOP estimates the winter rapeseed planting area in 2026 [12]. - Brazil's November 2025 exports of soybeans, corn, and soybean meal are expected to increase [12]. 3. Financial News 3.1 Open Market - On November 11, 2025, the central bank conducted 403.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 286.3 billion yuan [14]. 3.2 Key News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, deepen financial reform, and expand high - level opening - up [15]. - The Chinese government encourages the development of the bond market's "technology board" and promotes the internationalization of the RMB [17]. - The US Senate voted to end the government shutdown, and the House of Representatives will vote on the temporary appropriation bill [23]. 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market generally continued to be warm, with most interest - rate bond yields falling [25]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.16% [26]. 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 32 basis points at 7.1207 on November 11, 2025 [30]. 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities predicts that in 2026, fiscal policy will continue to be moderately expansionary, and monetary policy will be moderately loose [32]. - It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield in 2026 will fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9% [33]. 4. Stock Market - A - shares were weakly sorted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.4% [37]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.18%, and south - bound funds had a net inflow of HK$44.67 billion on November 11, 2025 [38]. - Since October, margin trading funds have continuously flowed into the power equipment, electronics, and non - ferrous metals industries [38]. - As of November 11, 2025, 87 new stocks have been listed in the Hong Kong stock market this year, with a total IPO fundraising of over HK$240 billion [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 12, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodity categories such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows that the basis increased from - 2.4 yuan/ton on November 5 to 29.6 yuan/ton on November 11 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from November 5 to November 11, 2025, is provided, with values such as - 74.14, - 31.93, etc. [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of rubber changed from - 500 yuan/ton on November 5 to - 395 yuan/ton on November 11 [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are presented, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber being 75 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are given, with values like 2203 yuan/ton for LLDPE - PVC on November 11 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of rebar increased from 146 yuan/ton on November 5 to 175 yuan/ton on November 11 [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar being 61 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are given, with values like 3.97 for rebar/iron ore on November 11 [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of copper changed from - 350 yuan/ton on November 5 to 20 yuan/ton on November 11 [29]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, etc., on November 11, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper is (21.28) [32]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 changed from - 103 yuan/ton on November 5 to - 92 yuan/ton on November 11 [39]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc., are provided, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No.1 being 44 yuan/ton [39]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, etc., are given, with values like 1.90 for soybeans No.1/corn on November 11 [38][39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 5 to November 11, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the basis of CSI 300 changed from 30.66 on November 5 to 25.37 on November 11 [50]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, such as the next - month minus current - month spread for CSI 300 being - 144 [50].

1. Core Views - Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper oscillated around 86,700 yuan. The weak US dollar recently is favorable for copper prices. The main contract twice failed to break through the 87,000 yuan mark, showing some pressure. Monitor the multi - short game at this level [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum increased in volume and price, especially in the afternoon. The main contract broke through the November 2024 high and approached 22,000 yuan. Despite the strong price, the spot discounts of both Shanghai and LME Aluminum continued to decline, indicating that although inventory is low, the spot is not in short supply. The short - term rise may be due to low valuation and expected supply reduction and demand increase overseas. Pay attention to the support at the 5 - day moving average [8]. - Shanghai Nickel decreased in volume and price, with the main contract breaking below 119,000 yuan. Amid the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector, the weak nickel price reflects its fundamental weakness. Technically, watch the support at the June low [9]. 2. Industry Dynamics - Citi predicts that the average copper price will reach $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026, with an optimistic estimate of $14,000 per ton [11]. - On November 10, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 616,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [12]. - On November 12, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 118,400 - 122,500 yuan per ton, with an average price of 120,450 yuan per ton, a decrease of 850 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 to 300 yuan per ton [13]. 3. Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, and month - to - month spread [14][15][16]. Aluminum - The report presents charts of aluminum basis, month - to - month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report shows charts of nickel basis, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, month - to - month spread, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][43].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate market is oscillating and stabilizing. The high production meets even higher demand, resulting in a phase - shortage pattern. The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate have shown an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2601.GFE was 86,580 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.05%) from the previous day. The settlement price was 86,640 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. Compared with 5 trading days ago, the closing price increased by 7,440 yuan/ton, and the settlement price increased by 7,680 yuan/ton [4][6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and other lithium - bearing ores remained stable compared to the previous day, with some showing increases compared to 5 trading days ago. For example, the price of Australian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate was in the range of 980 - 1030 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 80 - 80 US dollars/ton compared to 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Mica Prices**: The prices of various grades of lithium mica in the Chinese market remained unchanged compared to the previous day and 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate was 83,320 yuan/ton, up 960 yuan/ton from the previous day and 2,880 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide also showed some increases [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of most downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and electrolytes remained stable, while the price of hexafluorophosphate increased by 21,500 yuan/ton from the previous day and 33,500 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Related Stock Closing Prices**: The closing prices of related stocks such as Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, BYD, and Tesla showed different changes. For example, Ganfeng Lithium closed at 67.88 yuan/share, up 0.14 yuan/share from the previous day [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: There are charts showing the prices of manganese - based lithium, iron - phosphate lithium, cobalt - based lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.13%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are poor. Coupled with the weakening market sentiment, steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.22%, also showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot-rolled coils remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, there is still support at the cost end. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.38%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. At present, the departure of arbitrage funds has driven the low-level rebound of ore prices. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are still weak. Under the real - world logic, ore prices are still prone to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to October this year, the national investment in water conservancy construction exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1009.47 billion yuan. A total of 46,000 various water conservancy projects were implemented, and 28,000 new water conservancy projects were started, including a number of major water conservancy projects [7]. - Beijing has completed its 2025 affordable housing construction task. As of the end of October, the planned construction and procurement of 50,000 sets (units) of affordable rental housing and the completion of 80,000 sets (units) of various affordable housing have been fully achieved [8]. - Handan issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather and launched a Level II emergency response on November 12, 2025, which is expected to be lifted around November 16 [9]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price is 3,160 yuan, Tianjin is 3,210 yuan, and the national average is 3,231 yuan. For hot-rolled coils, the Shanghai price is 3,270 yuan, Tianjin is 3,200 yuan, and the national average is 3,309 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,930 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,130 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 110 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,030 yuan [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 781 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 798 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.24 yuan, and from Brazil is 23.34 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 102.83 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 102.35 yuan [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,038 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The trading volume is 775,671 lots, an increase of 22,561 lots, and the open interest is 1,868,036 lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots [14]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,255 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.22%. The trading volume is 343,788 lots, an increase of 19,420 lots, and the open interest is 1,311,464 lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 774.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 351,878 lots, an increase of 89,487 lots, and the open interest is 501,233 lots, a decrease of 29,119 lots [14]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventories (including rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories), iron ore inventories (including national 45-port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories), and steel mill production situations (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates) [16][21][30] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 40,500 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 136,600 tons. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level due to the poor fundamentals and weak market sentiment, although there is cost support. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - For hot-rolled coils, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 54,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 175,900 tons. The industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the inventory has increased again. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - For iron ore, the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory has increased significantly. The demand for iron ore continues to be weak, and the supply pressure has not been relieved. Although arbitrage funds have driven the low - level rebound of ore prices, in the short term, ore prices are still prone to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

| 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 强势 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美元指数回落，金价企稳回升 | | 铜 | 2512 | 强势 | 强势 | 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价强势运行，沪金日内一度触及 950 元关口，夜盘有所回落。近期美国国会参议院 已 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The domestic thermal coal price has strengthened again after a brief stabilization. Supply contraction expectations and downstream restocking expectations support the coal price to run strongly. The subsequent focus is on the strength of the peak season for thermal coal from this winter to next spring [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Price Information**: As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 31 yuan [4]. - **Supply Side**: In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, and the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of thermal coal supply. In October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of the period ending October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192,000 tons per day. The peak season for thermal coal demand has not started [4]. - **Overall Situation**: The supply contraction expectation and downstream restocking expectation support the coal price to run strongly [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both the 2601 contract of coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is the "oscillation idea". The core logic for coking coal is that there are still differences in supply, leading to a downward adjustment; for coke, it is that the cost support weakens, causing a new round of correction [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1435.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [5]. - **Market Influence**: The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, which mainly aims to ensure the supply of thermal coal for power generation and has limited impact on coking coal. The supply of coking coal still has differences, and the futures main contract has a new round of correction at the upper edge of the previous oscillation range. Considering the possible supply contraction after coal mines complete their production targets at the end of the year, the negative impact of energy supply guarantee during the heating season on coking coal is expected to be limited [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1620 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1530 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 2.55% [6]. - **Market Influence**: The industrial game has intensified this week, and there is certain resistance to the fourth round of price increase for coke spot. The divergence in the supply of coke raw materials still exists. The correction of coking coal at the upper edge of the oscillation range drags down the coke futures trend. The subsequent focus is on the actual supply of coking coal at the end of the year [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the agricultural products futures in the commodity market is that most varieties are in a state of oscillation. The short - term and medium - term trends of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are mainly oscillatory, with different intraday trends of oscillatory weakness or strength [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillatory weakness, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillatory weakness [5]. - **Core Logic**: The soybean market continues the high - level oscillation pattern. On one hand, the domestic soybean meal inventory has significantly decreased to 969,000 tons, a nearly 20% decrease compared to the previous period, which eases the supply pressure and supports the price. On the other hand, feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly fulfilling contracts, the spot price has difficulty rising, and the weakening of rapeseed meal drags down the market. The CBOT soybeans lack a clear direction in the international market, waiting for China's procurement demand and USDA report guidance. Short - term funds enter and exit frequently, increasing the volatility of futures prices at high levels [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillatory strength, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillatory strength [7]. - **Core Logic**: After the bearish expectations of the Malaysian palm oil report are fulfilled, the pressure on the rebound of palm oil futures prices is reduced. The end of the US government shutdown and the expected implementation of the bio - diesel policy inject optimistic sentiment into the market. The palm oil price gradually stops falling and stabilizes, and is expected to run with short - term oscillatory strength [7]. Other Varieties (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil in 2601 Contract) - **Soybean Oil 2601**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillatory, with an intraday and reference view of oscillatory strength. The influencing factors include Sino - US relations, US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillatory, with an intraday and reference view of oscillatory strength. The influencing factors include the bio - diesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, the tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].