宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局弱势，钢价弱势震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 政策预期兑现，市场情绪趋弱，而螺纹钢供需格局弱势运行，建筑钢厂有所提产，螺纹供应如 期回升，且品种吨钢利润良好，后续存有增量空间，压力逐步增加。与此同时，螺纹需求迎来改 善，多因投机需求放量所致，但下游行业并未好转，需求改善力度不强。总之，供需双增局面下螺 纹钢基本面并 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of IH2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the overall view is rising, supported by positive policy expectations [1] - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is rising, and the overall view is rising. The stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: rising; intraday: strongly volatile; view reference: rising; core logic: positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index was in a narrow - range volatile consolidation. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1871 billion yuan, an increase of 41.7 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. It also aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [5] - The Politburo meeting had few incremental benefits. Since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and some profit - taking funds may seek to take profits, weakening the short - term upward driving force of the stock index [5] - New policy incremental benefits are expected to wait for the policy guidance of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. Currently, the stock market trading volume is at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite has recovered, so the stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. After a previous sharp rise, bulls have substantial profits. With the temporary cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has been reversed [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to maintain a volatile and weak trend. Affected by the decline of domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. As China and the US conduct the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden, the macro - sentiment has improved [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 640,400 tons, a 0.91% increase. The utilization rate of tire production capacity has slightly increased, but the overall shipment is flat and inventory has slightly risen. The inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in June 2025 was 56.6%, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%. The weekly production was 1.8989 million tons. The inventory in East and South China ports was 587,100 tons. The profit of methanol - to - olefins futures has decreased significantly [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422. US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels. The net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | 15,010 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 110 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2442 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2434 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | + 8 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 515.0 yuan/barrel | + 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: There are charts related to rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire and semi - steel tire operating rate trends [17][19][21] - **Methanol**: Although not detailed in the text, it can be inferred that there are relevant charts for methanol. - **Crude Oil**: Although not detailed in the text, it can be inferred that there are relevant charts for crude oil.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 30, 2025, the stock indexes fluctuated narrowly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 187.1 billion yuan, an increase of 4.17 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - A Politburo meeting was held today, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies, including a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. The meeting also pointed out the need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidate the stable and positive momentum of the capital market, indicating that policies to stabilize stock market expectations will continue [3]. - The incremental positive effects of the Politburo meeting are limited. Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, and some profit - taking funds have a need to take profits. Therefore, the driving force for the short - term upward movement of the stock index will weaken. New incremental positive policy effects are expected to await the policy guidance of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October [3]. - Currently, the trading volume of the stock market is at a relatively high percentile level, and market risk appetite has recovered. It is expected that the stock index will mainly fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - The implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering that the stock index continues its upward trend, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads to take a mild long - position [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On July 30, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.31% to 2.943; the 300ETF (SSE) fell 0.07% to 4.232; the 300ETF (SZSE) fell 0.02% to 4.366; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.02% to 4151.24; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.82% to 6718.48; the 500ETF (SSE) fell 0.65% to 6.389; the 500ETF (SZSE) fell 0.62% to 2.553; the ChiNext ETF fell 1.59% to 2.345; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.84% to 2.943; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.38% to 2819.35; the STAR 50ETF fell 1.16% to 1.11; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.09% to 1.09 [5]. - **Volume and Position PCR**: The volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 85.10 (previous day: 92.74), and the position PCR was 104.29 (previous day: 100.17) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - trading - day historical volatility of various options in August 2025 are provided. For instance, the implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options' at - the - money options in August 2025 was 15.75%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 8.12% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts The report provides a series of charts for different types of options, including the trend of the underlying, volatility, volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility of options such as SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, etc. These charts show the historical data from 2023 to 2025, helping investors analyze the performance and trends of different options [9][20][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: On July 30, the coke main contract closed at 1,676.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 4.00%. The current fundamental pressure on coke is not significant, and the expected improvement in the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern of coking coal provides cost - side support. After a short - term correction, coke futures strengthened again [3][31]. - **Coking Coal**: The main logic for the recent rise was "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification". However, the actual impact of the industry policies remains to be verified. Since the night session last Friday, the coking coal main contract has corrected. After the policy expectations were fulfilled, coking coal futures continued to adjust widely. In the short term, the release of positive sentiment led to a phased price correction, but in the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [4][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In June 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 62.81 billion yuan, including 10.1 billion yuan of general bonds and 52.71 billion yuan of special bonds [7]. - On July 30, Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 5 clean coal was 86.8 US dollars/ton, and all 12,800 tons were sold at 95.2 US dollars/ton [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,420 yuan/ton | +7.58% | +16.39% | - 15.98% | - 28.64% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,390 yuan/ton | +0.72% | +19.83% | - 14.20% | - 24.86% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,240 yuan/ton | +20.39% | +43.35% | +5.08% | - 22.50% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,480 yuan/ton | +0.68% | +22.31% | - 0.67% | - 28.50% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,650 yuan/ton | +10.00% | +32.00% | +7.84% | - 17.09% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,676.5 yuan/ton | +4.00% | 1,722.0 yuan/ton | 1,632.0 yuan/ton | 54,649 | 7,422 | 29,358 | - 1,823 | | Coking Coal | | 1,117.0 yuan/ton | +2.71% | 1,172.0 yuan/ton | 1,061.0 yuan/ton | 1,748,394 | 157,517 | 307,743 | - 29,947 | [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including the inventories of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and others, as well as charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][15][17][20][23][26][27][28][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The coke market has strong potential. With low fundamental pressure and cost - side support from coking coal, coke futures are expected to maintain strength after a short - term correction [3][31]. - **Coking Coal**: In the short term, the market will experience wide - range adjustments due to policy expectations and the release of positive sentiment. In the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise as the industry undergoes capacity optimization and upgrading [4][32].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 30 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 政策预期兑现，钢矿冲高回落 铁矿石：主力期价转弱下行，录得 0.44%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，矿石需求韧性尚可，继续给予矿价支撑，但供应预期回升，需求则 是弱稳运行，矿市基本面预期转弱，预计矿价延续高位震荡整理态势， 关注成材走势情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.42%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 30 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 重磅会议召开，国债期货震荡上涨 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡上涨。7 月以来，股市风险偏好上升，资金偏好 由债转股，股债跷跷板效应显现，加上外部风险因素趋于缓和，国债短线承 压。随着国债期货持续回调，国债收益率持续上升，触发政策利率的锚定效 应，国债期货继续下行的动能有所不足。今日召开的政治局会议再提落实落 细适度宽松的货币政策，这意味着未来货币环境仍偏宽松，国债期货中长期 向上的逻辑仍较为牢靠。短期内，宏观经济表现韧性，外部风险因素趋缓， 降息的必要性有所不足，国债上行的动能也有限。总的来说，短期内国债期 货震荡整理为主，上行与下行的空间均有限。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 30 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色金属震荡整理 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价冲高回落，窄幅震荡。随着市场情绪降温，多数前期大 涨的商品出现减仓下行趋势，沪铜延续减仓态势。短期内商品盘面 转弱，铜价跟随下行，由于前期铜价涨幅有限，因此沪铜也相对抗 跌。后续关注沪铜主力期价在 7.9 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价窄幅震荡整理，持仓量显著下降。随着市场情绪降温， 多数前期大涨的商品出现减仓下行趋势，沪铝延续减仓态势。短期内 商品盘面转弱，叠加铝供需宽松，产业端呈现累库的态势 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Report's Core View - Both沪胶and合成胶are expected to run strongly.沪胶期货2509合约and合成胶期货2509合约are likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend Information - **沪胶（RU）**: The 2509 contract of domestic沪胶期货slightly rose 0.73% to 15,085 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. - **合成胶（BR）**: The domestic合成胶期货slightly rose 0.21% to 11,880 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected that the 2509 contract of合成胶期货will maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [7]. 3.2 Driving Logic - The core driving logic for both沪胶and合成胶is that the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US were held in Sweden this week. After one - and - a - half days of negotiations, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were conducted on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. In any case, the macro - sentiment will improve, creating a bullish atmosphere [5][7].

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 成于笃行 宝城期货 陈栋 在期货市场的波谲云诡中，各类信息如潮水般涌动，其中不乏一些精心炮制的"小作文"。这些"小作文" 犹如三国赤壁之战中周瑜巧施的反间计，暗藏杀机，稍有不慎，投资者便可能如曹操般，因误判而损失惨 重。笔者借周瑜反间计之典故，剖析期货市场"小作文"的危害，并为投资者提供应对之策。 "小作文"：期货江湖的"反间计" 第二，保持定力，不为"情绪"所裹挟。"小作文"的煽动性，旨在引发投资者的恐惧或贪婪。此时，投 资者需修炼"每临大事有静气"的定力。若手中持仓是基于对品种基本面、供需格局的深入研究，短期的"小 作文"冲击，不过是市场噪音，切勿因一时风浪而自乱阵阵脚，盲目平仓或追涨。 第三，深耕基本面，构建"护城河"。投资期货，归根结底是对标的资产未来价格走势的判断。而价格 走势，最终由基本面决定。投资者应将主要精力放在研究品种的产业链、供需关系、成本利润、政策环境 等"硬核"因素上。当对这些基本面有深刻理解时，便如同给自己的投资组合筑起了一道"护城河"。此时， 区区"小作文"，不过是河面上的涟漪，难以撼动根本。 第四，了解市场，识别"套路"。熟悉期货市场历史上的"谣言战"、"信息 ...