Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is that they will be in a stage of oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with an oscillatory trend in the medium - term and an oscillatory - weakening trend in the intraday period. The monetary policy environment is inclined to be loose, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weakening. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is oscillatory - weakening, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having the largest decline. Recently, due to a large number of reverse repurchase maturities, the central bank's open - market operations have mainly been net withdrawals. The domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, the economic data in the first half of the year showed resilience, and the pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year has decreased. The risk appetite in the securities market has rapidly recovered, causing Treasury bond futures to enter an oscillatory adjustment stage. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is strong, and the market interest rate is close to the policy interest rate, so the upward space for the market interest rate is limited. The problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year. There is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the downward space for interest rates is also limited [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and intraday views being oscillating and strong, and medium - term views being oscillating [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.30% to 15075 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: After the previous bearish expectations were gradually digested, the Shanghai rubber futures price entered an oscillating recovery trend. The expected reduction in domestic natural rubber production areas due to the typhoon boosted the rubber price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.46% to 12080 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: After the rubber price callback digested bearish factors, combined with the stabilization and rebound of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices, the Shanghai rubber futures continued the upward trend. It is expected that on Wednesday, the 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that thermal coal will maintain a relatively strong performance in the near term, with the fundamental and news - related positives during the peak season driving up coal prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Outlook - The intraday and mid - term reference view for thermal coal spot is "oscillation", and it is expected to run strongly in the near future [4]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - In the Lvliang Zhongyang area, environmental inspections are strict. On July 18, an individual coal mine stopped production due to gangue disposal issues, and three other mines are still in a state of shutdown or production reduction due to underground production problems. In the future, thermal coal may shift from a supply - surplus situation to a balanced supply - demand pattern [4]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - As of July 10, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.148 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.551 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 95,000 tons. There is good support for thermal coal demand during the peak season, and the atmosphere at the mine mouth is improving [4]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - As of July 17, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.985 million tons, with a slight weekly de - stocking of 34,000 tons. The inventory is 1.151 million tons higher than the same period last year and is at a five - year high, indicating sufficient coal stocks [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report is optimistic about the short - term and medium - term trends of iron ore 2509. In the short term, it is expected to rise, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile and moderately strong state. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is good, and the price will run strongly. However, considering its relatively high valuation, a cautious and optimistic attitude should be taken towards its upward potential, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is a volatile and moderately strong state, and the intraday view is also a volatile and moderately strong state. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is good, and the ore price runs strongly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore have improved. The inventory has been depleted again. During the off - season, steel mills are actively producing, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased. The profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand for ore is acceptable, which strongly supports the ore price. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has decreased as expected. Although the shipments of overseas miners have rebounded from a low level, it is difficult to increase the short - term domestic arrivals according to the shipping schedule. The overseas ore supply is low, and the domestic ore production is stable. The ore supply has shrunk in the short term. - In the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good. Coupled with the continued optimistic market sentiment, the ore price remains high and runs strongly. However, considering its relatively high valuation, a cautious and optimistic attitude should be taken towards its upward potential, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 偏多思路 | 供应扰动再现，焦煤强势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 偏多思路 | 成本支撑强劲，焦炭持续上行 | 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：偏多思路 核心逻辑：自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿 生产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的消息，核查范围覆盖山西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主产 区。若该传闻为真，则将是煤炭行业在本轮反内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后 续供应格局。此外，我国投资 1.2 万亿的雅鲁藏布江超级水电项目开工，也将拉动国内水泥、 钢材的长期需求。综上，随着利多因素不断叠加，市场乐观情绪升温，驱动焦煤主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, it is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a short - term upward trend, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation on the stronger side, driven by the falling dollar [1][3]. - For copper, it is expected to be strong in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an upward intraday trend, due to the resonance of internal and external macro - economic improvements and industrial expectation enhancements [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: New York gold is approaching the $3450 mark, and Shanghai gold has reached the 790 - yuan mark [3]. - **Core Logic**: The dollar index has been falling recently. As the Fed's interest - rate meeting on July 30th and the important US tariff time - point on August 1st approach, market risk appetite may decline. Technically, the gold price has broken through the oscillation high since July [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The main copper futures price oscillated around 79,700 yuan yesterday, and the night - session was strong, with the main price once reaching the 80,000 - yuan mark. LME copper has recovered to the $10,000 mark, and Shanghai copper has recovered to the 80,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Core Logic**: The falling dollar index is beneficial to copper prices. There is a resonance of internal and external macro - economic improvements, and the industrial expectation has also improved. The inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased significantly this week, and the 8 - 9 month spread remains the same as yesterday [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and slightly stronger respectively [1][5]. - After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. Although 8 major oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the negative impact of increased production is gradually being digested, and the room for further production expansion in the future is limited. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly stronger. The reference view is a strong operation, and the core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and crude oil is oscillating and stabilizing [1]. 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is a strong operation. After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. Despite the planned production increase in August, the negative impact is being digested, and future production expansion space is limited. On Tuesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices were oscillatory and slightly weaker. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 0.55% at 503.8 yuan per barrel, and is expected to be oscillatory and stable on Wednesday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal futures market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the medium - term and show a slightly strong intraday performance. The main reasons are the increasing expectation of a good harvest of US soybeans under normal weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, the slow forward buying of ships in China leading to an expected tightening of forward supply, and the continuous fermentation of market optimism [5]. - The palm oil futures market is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term and show a volatile trend in the medium - term. The palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector. Driven by the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil futures prices is strong, which restricts its downward space. In the short - term, it is affected by international oil price fluctuations and runs with a slightly strong trend [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly strong, medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is slightly strong [5]. - **Core Logic**: With normal weather in US soybean - producing areas, the expectation of a good harvest of US soybeans is growing. The slow forward buying of ships in China leads to an expected tightening of forward supply, which boosts soybean futures prices. The market's optimistic sentiment is continuously fermenting, consolidating the recent strong pattern of soybean futures prices. The soybean meal futures are stronger than the spot, and the domestic market is stronger than the foreign market, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term view is slightly strong, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is slightly strong [7]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector. The rebound of the oil and fat sector reflects the energy attribute of oils and fats. Supported by the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil futures prices is still strong, restricting its downward space. In the short - term, it is affected by international oil price fluctuations and runs with a slightly strong trend [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, the main copper futures price fluctuated around 79,700 yuan. The position of Shanghai copper decreased slightly. With the decline of the US dollar index and the improvement of domestic macro - and industrial expectations, the electrolytic copper inventory decreased significantly on Monday. Since last week, the macro - economic recovery has pushed up copper prices. The London copper has returned to the $10,000 mark, and the Shanghai copper has returned to the 80,000 mark. It is advisable to continue to pay attention to the long - short game at the integer mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum increased in position and rose, with the main futures price approaching the 21,000 mark. The 8 - 9 month spread continued to weaken. With the rapid recovery of domestic macro - expectations and the continuous rise of upstream alumina and coal prices, the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants decreased from a high level. The downstream is in the off - season with a decline in the start - up rate, and the inventory reduction of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down. It is expected that the aluminum price will remain strong, and also pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel fell in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon, with the position continuing to rise. Supported by the macro - economic situation, the nickel price followed the upward trend. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals of nickel in the non - ferrous metals are weak, and the recent increase in upstream port inventory has weakened the support for the nickel price. Technically, the nickel price increased in position and broke through the high point in early July, with strong upward momentum, and it is expected to remain strong [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In June 2025, China's copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of copper products was 11.765 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. In June 2025, China imported 460,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%; the cumulative import from January to June was 2.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June 2025, China exported 154,361 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%; the cumulative export from January to June was 743,254 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. On July 21, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased significantly [9]. - **Aluminum**: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative import of bauxite was 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. On July 21, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 480,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared with July 17 and a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with July 14 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 22, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai nickel 2508 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,530 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,080 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,130 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,630 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and alumina inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore all showed strong upward trends, with daily increases of 3.12%, 2.84%, and 2.49% respectively, accompanied by increased trading volume and decreased open interest [4]. - Rebar's fundamentals continue to be seasonally weak, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. However, with limited industrial contradictions, the fermentation of policy - positive expectations boosting market sentiment, and strong raw materials providing cost support, steel prices will continue to fluctuate upward. Attention should be paid to policy changes [4][33]. - The supply of hot - rolled coil is shrinking, while demand has good resilience, and its fundamentals have improved with inventory reduction again. With the fermentation of policy - positive expectations and cost support from strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil will continue to fluctuate strongly, but the risk of weak external demand needs to be guarded against [4][34]. - Under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good, and the optimistic market sentiment remains, supporting the strong operation of ore prices. However, its valuation has reached a high level, and caution is needed for upward movement. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. The balance of RMB loans of enterprises and institutions in local and foreign currencies was 182.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the number of housing units delivered by real - estate enterprises generally decreased compared with the same period last year, indicating that the peak of delivery has passed [7]. - 36 coal mines have reached the first - level safety production standard and are now being publicly announced [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,421 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) was 3,477 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 798 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,307 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.12%. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,477 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.84%. The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 823.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.49% [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production status (such as blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate) [13][18][29] 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply continues to shrink, but the space for continuous production reduction is limited due to good profit per ton. Demand is weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. With limited industrial contradictions, positive policy expectations, and cost support from strong raw materials, steel prices will continue to fluctuate upward [33]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply is shrinking, but the sustainability of production reduction is not strong. Demand has good resilience, but there are concerns about external demand. With improved fundamentals and cost support, prices will continue to fluctuate strongly [34]. - Iron ore: Demand is strong with the recovery of steel - mill production, while supply is shrinking. The fundamentals are good, and market sentiment is optimistic, but the high valuation requires cautious optimism for upward movement [34].