Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For gold 2508, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to decline, with a suggestion to wait and see due to the easing of Sino - US relations which is negative for gold prices [1] - For nickel 2506, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to be weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion to wait and see because of strong upstream nickel mines and weak downstream stainless steel [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, gold prices initially dropped nearly 2% in the Asian morning session, with New York gold approaching $3100, then rebounded, turning from decline to increase, and New York gold regained the $3200 mark with an amplitude of over $100 [3] - **Driving Logic**: The initial decline was due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the expectation of a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, and the improvement of global geopolitical situation, which reduced the demand for safe - haven assets. The subsequent rebound was because the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were postponed to Friday and neither leader would attend, which dispelled the expectation of a quick peace agreement, leading to the return of safe - haven funds. Also, poor US economic data, including retail data and PPI index falling short of expectations, increased the recession expectation and provided upward momentum for gold prices [3] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded, with significant differences between bulls and bears. It is advisable to focus on the multi - empty game around the $3200 level of New York gold [3] Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Since this week, the main nickel futures price has been broadly fluctuating in the range of 123,000 - 126,000 yuan [5] - **Driving Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector has been fluctuating upward due to internal and external macro - level positives, but nickel has been relatively weak. This is mainly because nickel prices are greatly affected by the industrial fundamentals, with strong upstream mines providing support and weak downstream demand exerting pressure. With a good macro - environment and neutral industrial performance, nickel prices may fluctuate strongly [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面不佳，焦煤弱势震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 原料供应宽松，焦炭震荡走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：5 月 15 日夜盘，焦煤主力再次走弱，均线维持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the prices of soymeal and palm oil are showing signs of weakness. The internal and external linkages of soybeans have strengthened after the price difference repair, and the decline in US soybean futures prices has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal, with its futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend. The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, and the lack of driving factors for palm oil has caused it to be dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [5] - **Reference View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Core Logic**: After the repair of the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans, the internal - external linkage has increased. The decline in US soybean futures prices due to concerns about the demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates, along with the incomplete recovery of the oil refinery's shipping rhythm, have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Weak [7] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [7] - **Reference View**: Weak [7] - **Core Logic**: The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, with some short - term funds leaving the market. The US soybean oil futures hitting the daily limit down due to the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has dragged down the domestic soybean oil futures prices. Palm oil lacks driving factors and is dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [7].

晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘溢价回吐，原油震荡偏弱 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：中美经贸会谈达成实质性成果，宏观因子转向乐观。OPEC+产油国加快产能释放未让油价 跌破前低。北半球原油消费旺季到来，炼厂开工率回升，商业库存步入去化周期。国际资金有望增 加油市净多头寸。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-05-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：虽然国内煤制甲醇生产利润出现回落，但随着节前多套装置陆续重启，供应压力再度回 升并刷新周度产量历史新高。目前下游需求有所改善，甲醇制烯烃期货盘面利润回暖有助于提振港 口采购热情，港口库存去化较为顺畅 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面表现弱稳，矿价震荡运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求开始回落，目前降幅有限，仍将给予矿价支 撑，但矿石需求已然触顶，利好效应不强。与此同时，港口到货和海外矿商发运高位回落，而内矿生 产积极，矿石供应维持高位，且回升预期未变。总之，得益于市场情绪回暖，贴水修复逻辑支撑下矿 价低位回 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 螺纹钢供需格局尚可，叠加市场情绪回暖，钢材期价低位回升，但鉴于需求面临季节性走弱， 高供应下需求转弱则螺纹基本面矛盾将累积，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存低位以及情绪偏 暖，短期走势延续震荡企稳，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局尚可，钢价震荡企稳 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock indexes oscillated and corrected today. The total trading volume of the stock market was 1190.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 159.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The April social financing and credit data were mixed, with significant government bond issuance, but the financing demand of enterprises and residents remained weak. The stock indexes have insufficient momentum for continuous upward movement, and there is a possibility of a short - term pullback after reaching a high and repeated oscillations [3]. - In the second quarter, the external tariff war conflict has eased. The recent "order - grabbing" in Sino - US trade is expected to improve external demand to some extent. The continuous efforts of internal policies can also provide good support. Currently, the corporate profit differentiation among industries is obvious. The acceleration of the public fund new regulations promotes the aggregation of funds to large - cap weighted stocks. It is expected that the performance of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 will be stronger than that of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [3]. - Generally speaking, the domestic policy is clear in supporting the economy and stabilizing the stock market. Coupled with the easing of external risk factors, the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. It is expected that the stock indexes will oscillate and strengthen in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options is within the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indexes, a bull spread portfolio can be used to layout the medium - and long - term upward market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On May 15, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.50% to 2.803; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.84% to 4.011; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.86% to 4.047; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.91% to 3907.20; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.68% to 6057.04; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.33% to 5.721; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.30% to 2.286; the GEM ETF fell 2.04% to 2.012; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 1.36% to 2.688; the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.49% to 2740.30; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 1.41% to 1.05; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 1.45% to 1.02 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of the Shanghai 50ETF option was 83.83 (73.37 the previous day), and the position PCR was 119.37 (129.62 the previous day) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For example, the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai 50ETF option in May 2025 was 13.98%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 19.67% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Shanghai 50ETF Option**: Charts include the Shanghai 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [9][11][13][17]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Option**: Charts cover the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [20]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Option**: Charts involve the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [23]. - **CSI 300 Index Option**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [37]. - **CSI 1000 Index Option**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [50]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Option**: Charts involve the Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [62]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Option**: Charts include the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [74]. - **GEM ETF Option**: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [88]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Option**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [97]. - **Shanghai 50 Index Option**: Charts include the Shanghai 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [110]. - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Charts cover the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [124]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Charts involve the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [127].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, copper prices continued to decline, with the main contract price falling below the 78,000 yuan mark in the afternoon. The recent upward trend in copper prices was largely due to the easing of Sino-US relations, while today's decline was affected by the sharp drop in gold prices and the increase in electrolytic copper social inventory. With the industry's low inventory pattern and the warming of the internal and external macro atmosphere, copper prices are expected to maintain a strong operation. Attention can be paid to the long-short game at the 78,000 yuan level [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly above 20,200 yuan and weakened slightly in the afternoon. The recent upward trend in aluminum prices was largely due to the easing of Sino-US relations. With the low inventory pattern, the warming macro atmosphere promoted the rebound of aluminum prices. In the short term, the futures price broke through the 20,000 yuan mark, and short - sellers had a strong willingness to close positions. The futures price is expected to maintain a strong operation. If it falls, attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices showed a downward trend, with an obvious plunge before the noon closing and stabilized with increased positions in the afternoon. From a macro perspective, the internal and external macro - benefits did not significantly boost nickel prices, which largely indicated that the industrial fundamentals of nickel prices were suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices. Overall, the strong upstream mine end provided support for the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerted pressure on the futures price. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at the 123,000 yuan level [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On May 15th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 135,700 tons, a cumulative increase of 10,800 tons compared to the 12th. Codelco will cooperate with Rio Tinto to build a copper "mining area" around the Nuevo Cobre project in the Atacama region of northern Chile. Codelco holds about 43% of the shares, and Rio Tinto holds about 58%. Ivanhoe's Makoko mining area in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has a total copper content of 9.37 million tons, 89% higher than the estimated 5 million tons in November 2023. The inferred resource volume of the Makoko mine is 27.7 million tons with a copper grade of 2.79%, and the speculative resource volume is 4.937 billion tons with a copper grade of 1.7%. Morgan Stanley expects the average copper price in the second half of 2025 to be $9,225 per ton [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: Morgan Stanley expects the average aluminum price in the second half of 2025 to be $2,325 per ton [9]. - **Nickel**: On May 15th, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the main premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,530 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,630 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,030 yuan/ton; for nickel beans, it was -900 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,430 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][45].