Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, copper prices continued to decline, with the main contract price falling below the 78,000 yuan mark in the afternoon. The recent upward trend in copper prices was largely due to the easing of Sino-US relations, while today's decline was affected by the sharp drop in gold prices and the increase in electrolytic copper social inventory. With the industry's low inventory pattern and the warming of the internal and external macro atmosphere, copper prices are expected to maintain a strong operation. Attention can be paid to the long-short game at the 78,000 yuan level [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly above 20,200 yuan and weakened slightly in the afternoon. The recent upward trend in aluminum prices was largely due to the easing of Sino-US relations. With the low inventory pattern, the warming macro atmosphere promoted the rebound of aluminum prices. In the short term, the futures price broke through the 20,000 yuan mark, and short - sellers had a strong willingness to close positions. The futures price is expected to maintain a strong operation. If it falls, attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices showed a downward trend, with an obvious plunge before the noon closing and stabilized with increased positions in the afternoon. From a macro perspective, the internal and external macro - benefits did not significantly boost nickel prices, which largely indicated that the industrial fundamentals of nickel prices were suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices. Overall, the strong upstream mine end provided support for the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerted pressure on the futures price. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at the 123,000 yuan level [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On May 15th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 135,700 tons, a cumulative increase of 10,800 tons compared to the 12th. Codelco will cooperate with Rio Tinto to build a copper "mining area" around the Nuevo Cobre project in the Atacama region of northern Chile. Codelco holds about 43% of the shares, and Rio Tinto holds about 58%. Ivanhoe's Makoko mining area in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has a total copper content of 9.37 million tons, 89% higher than the estimated 5 million tons in November 2023. The inferred resource volume of the Makoko mine is 27.7 million tons with a copper grade of 2.79%, and the speculative resource volume is 4.937 billion tons with a copper grade of 1.7%. Morgan Stanley expects the average copper price in the second half of 2025 to be $9,225 per ton [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: Morgan Stanley expects the average aluminum price in the second half of 2025 to be $2,325 per ton [9]. - **Nickel**: On May 15th, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the main premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,530 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,630 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,030 yuan/ton; for nickel beans, it was -900 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,430 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][45].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears after the previous bullish factors have been digested. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [4]. - The methanol market has also entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. The domestic methanol futures price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [4]. - The crude oil market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 618,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,500 tons (0.73%). The bonded area inventory increased by 5.89% to 90,000 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.09% to 528,700 tons. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a week - on - week drop of 14.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a week - on - week drop of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 17.80 percentage points. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales were about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level as the previous year [8]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% [9]. - **Methanol** - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants ended, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The average weekly output was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a week - on - week increase of 6.78%. The operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.68%. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.43 percentage points. The futures profit of methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. As of the week of May 8, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,500 tons (7.23%), a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [11][13]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.50 percentage points [14]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak volatile trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1,781 contracts, and a significant increase of 15,065 contracts (9.39%) compared with the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,566 contracts, and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts (37.68%) compared with the April average [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 15,150 yuan/ton | +300 yuan/ton | 15,090 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +60 yuan/ton | +145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,532 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan/ton | +212 yuan/ton | +45 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 460.7 yuan/barrel | - 18.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.5 yuan/barrel | +18.6 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report mentions charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [17][19][21]. - Methanol: The report mentions charts such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, etc [29][31][33]. - Crude Oil: The report mentions charts such as crude oil basis, US commercial crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes, etc [41][43][45]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Researching and developing pure benzene futures and options is an important measure by the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) to serve the real economy. It can combine with the listed styrene futures and options to provide more comprehensive risk management tools and trade pricing benchmarks for relevant industrial enterprises, and contribute to the safe and stable development of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain and supply chain [4][9][96]. - After the listing of pure benzene futures and options, industrial chain enterprises can effectively cope with price - fluctuation risks using derivatives tools, and adjust supply and demand according to public and transparent forward price signals, thereby optimizing resource allocation and promoting the long - term and healthy development of the industry chain [5][97]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review No relevant content provided. 2. Rubber Market No relevant content provided. 3. Conclusion - Pure benzene is an important organic chemical raw material, connecting petroleum and coal at the upstream and three major industries of synthetic resin, synthetic fiber, and synthetic rubber at the downstream. In 2024, China's pure benzene production was 2513000 tons, apparent consumption reached 2926000 tons, and the market scale was 208.6 billion yuan [4]. - The proposed pure benzene futures contract has a trading code of BZ, a trading unit of 30 tons/hand, a minimum price change of 1 yuan/ton, a daily price limit of 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and a minimum trading margin of 5% of the contract value. The contract months are from January to December, and the delivery method is physical delivery [4][96]. 4. Pure Benzene Basics Introduction - Pure benzene is a petroleum - chemical basic raw material, a colorless, sweet - smelling, flammable, and carcinogenic liquid at room temperature. It is a good organic solvent, slightly soluble in water and easily soluble in organic solvents such as ethanol and ether. Its production and application need to strictly follow safety and environmental protection regulations [10]. 5. Pure Benzene Storage, Transportation Precautions and Uses - During transportation, operators should wear protective equipment and prevent vapor leakage. During storage, it should be stored separately from oxidants and food chemicals in a cool and ventilated warehouse, with a temperature not exceeding 30°C [15]. - Pure benzene is mainly used as a chemical raw material in industry, for synthesizing various alkylbenzenes, and a series of benzene derivatives [15]. 6. Pure Benzene Production Process and Industry Chain Introduction - Pure benzene can be divided into petroleum benzene and coking benzene. Petroleum benzene accounts for 80.7% of the total, with a purity usually over 99%, and is more widely used [16]. - The main production processes include catalytic reforming (about 38% of the total source globally), ethylene - cracking by - product extraction, toluene disproportionation, and coal - processing by - product extraction [16][17]. - Upstream raw materials mainly come from crude oil, naphtha, and coal. Downstream, 47% of pure benzene is used for styrene production, 17% for caprolactam, 13% for phenol, 11% for aniline, 7% for adipic acid, and 5% for other chemicals [22]. 7. Domestic and International Pure Benzene Production Capacity and Demand - Globally, the production capacity of pure benzene exceeds 80 million tons, with major production areas in Northeast Asia, North America, and Western Europe, accounting for 51%, 13%, and 12% of the global capacity in 2024 respectively [28]. - In China, the production capacity increased from 12.47 million tons in 2017 to 25.78 million tons in 2024, and the output increased from 8.495 million tons in 2017 to 20.921 million tons in 2024. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of pure benzene. In 2024, the total output was about 24.955 million tons, and the demand was about 29.259 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of about - 140000 tons [28][29][30]. 8. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand Areas - Styrene is the main downstream product of pure benzene, accounting for 47%. The production of one ton of styrene requires about 0.8 tons of pure benzene, and its downstream products are used in multiple fields such as insulation materials and home appliances [36]. - Caprolactam accounts for 17% of the demand. The production of one ton of caprolactam requires nearly one ton of pure benzene, mainly used for PA6 slices, with downstream applications in textile and clothing [37]. - Phenol accounts for 13%. The production of one ton of phenol requires about 0.92 tons of pure benzene, used in the production of bisphenol A and other products [38]. - Aniline accounts for 12%. The production of one ton of aniline requires about 0.86 tons of pure benzene, used in the production of dyes and drugs [38][39]. - Adipic acid accounts for 7%. The production of one ton of adipic acid requires about 0.75 tons of pure benzene, used for synthetic nylon 66 salt and other products [39]. 9. China's Pure Benzene Import and Export - China is a net importer of pure benzene. In 2024, the total import volume was about 4.164 million tons, mainly from South Korea, Brunei, and Thailand. In 2025, China's production capacity and output are expected to further increase, and the listing of pure benzene futures will improve the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain [42]. 10. Pure Benzene Cost Calculation and Influencing Factors - Cost calculation formulas include the theoretical cost of petroleum benzene, the rough - calculation cost, and the theoretical cost of hydrogenated benzene [47]. - Influencing factors include raw material cost, production process, supply - demand relationship, inventory level, and macro - economic factors [47][48]. 11. Correlation Analysis between Styrene and Pure Benzene - Pure benzene and styrene are closely related in the chemical industry chain. In the long - term, they show a strong correlation, but due to various factors, their price difference may fluctuate [49]. 12. Pure Benzene Futures and Options Contracts and Business Rules - The pure benzene futures contract has a trading unit of 30 tons/hand, a minimum price change of 1 yuan/ton, a daily price limit of 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and a minimum trading margin of 5% of the contract value. The delivery method is physical delivery [53]. - The pure benzene options contract has a contract type of call and put options, a trading unit of one hand (30 tons) of pure benzene futures contract, and an American - style exercise method [53]. 13. DCE Pure Benzene Futures Delivery Quality Standard - The quality requirements include a crystallization point (dry basis) of ≥5.45°C, a purity (mass fraction) of ≥99.90%, and a toluene (mass fraction) of ≤0.05%, etc. For some indicators, only reporting is required [94]. 14. DCE Pure Benzene Futures Margin and Position - Limit Standards - The minimum trading margin standard for pure benzene futures contracts is 5% of the contract value, with different margin standards at different trading stages [95]. - The position - limit standards vary at different trading times, with the maximum unilateral position of non - futures company members and customers limited [95].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 乐观情绪未退，钢矿震荡回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.39%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需格局尚可，叠加市场情绪回暖，钢材期价低位回升，但鉴于 需求面临季节性走弱，高供应下需求转弱则螺纹基本面矛盾将累积，钢 价继续承压，相对利好则是库存低位以及情绪偏暖，短期走势延续震荡 企稳，关注需求表现情况。 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦震荡调整 核心观点 焦炭：5 月 15 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1472 元/吨，日内录得 0.44%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.93 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-800 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级平仓价最新报价为 1440 元/吨，周环比 持平，折合期货仓单成本约 1583 元/吨。中美关税矛盾迎来转机，带动焦 炭期货低位小幅反弹。目前，焦炭基本面格局变化不大，供需维持高位， 短期需求支撑良好，不过需求端增速已开始下滑， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market developments. It suggests that the economy may need more support in the second half of the year, with expectations of increased macro - policies and continued support for the bond market. In the stock market, there are signs of sector rotation and increased investment from certain institutional investors [30][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, unchanged from the previous quarter but slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 was 49%, down from 50.5% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in April was 50.4%, a decline from 50.8% in the previous month. The CPI in April 2025 was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than 0.3% in the same period last year. The PPI in April was - 2.7% year - on - year, lower than - 2.5% in the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, with an acceleration in growth compared to the previous month. The first full - scale reserve requirement ratio cut in 2025 took effect on May 15, expected to inject about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market. The US adjusted its tariffs on Chinese goods, canceling 91% of the tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained [2][4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Global risk - aversion sentiment cooled, causing significant fluctuations in international gold prices. On May 14, the London spot gold price briefly fell below $3,230 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price also declined. In April, global physical gold ETFs attracted $11 billion in funds, with China's market inflow exceeding the total of Q1 2025 [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of early May, the circulation price of coking coal (main coking coal) remained flat at 1,225 yuan per ton. As of May 12, the Baode block coalbed methane field of PetroChina Coalbed Methane Co., Ltd. had produced over 6 billion cubic meters of natural gas, becoming the first medium - and low - rank coal coalbed methane field in China to reach this milestone [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Russia is considering extending gasoline export restrictions until the end of October. On May 14, Saudi Aramco announced 34 preliminary agreements with major US companies, with a potential value of up to $90 billion. OPEC+ production in April increased by only 25,000 barrels per day, far below the planned increase of 138,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 [8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of early May, the circulation price of corn (second - grade yellow corn) increased by 3.97% month - on - month to 2,303.2 yuan per ton, reaching a new high since early August 2024 [11]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On May 14, the central bank conducted 92 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.4%. With 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 103.5 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - The central bank, along with six other departments, issued 15 policy measures to promote the development of science and technology finance. The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium for private enterprises to listen to opinions on the economic situation and policy implementation. The National Tax Service's VAT invoice data showed that in April, the national enterprise sales revenue increased by 4.3% year - on - year, continuing the upward trend since Q4 2024 [17][18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - Treasury bond futures declined across the board, with the 30 - year main contract falling 0.23%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rebounded, mostly rising by about 1 basis point. The overnight and 7 - day pledged repurchase rates of deposit - taking institutions both increased slightly [23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.2083 against the US dollar at 16:30, down 71 basis points from the previous trading day. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was set at 7.1956, up 35 basis points from the previous day. The US dollar index rose 0.10% to 101.08 in late New York trading [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC Fixed Income expects that macro - policies may be intensified in the second half of the year, with more reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts likely in Q2 and Q3. It continues to be optimistic about the domestic bond market. Xingzheng Fixed Income suggests that credit bond investors should be more optimistic while closely monitoring market sentiment changes. CICC's April urban investment bond monthly report indicates that the supply of urban investment bonds is unlikely to increase significantly, and it is advisable to focus on medium - and short - term bonds in the short term [30]. 3.4 Stock Market - A - shares oscillated higher on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3,400 - point mark. The financial sector led the rise, and the shipping and chemical sectors also performed strongly. Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.3%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of over HK$6.7 billion. Insurance funds are expected to continue increasing their equity investments [33].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 15 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/14 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/13 | -182.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/12 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/09 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/08 | -166.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 核心逻辑：国内外天胶产区将陆续进入新一轮割胶旺季，原料产出稳步增长，新胶供应将逐渐回升。 同时下游轮胎行业经历五一长假以后，开工率转入阶段性回升状态，采购需求有望增强。由于供需 结构缺乏持续改善的动力，叠加青岛保税区橡胶库存小幅累库，难以支撑节后胶价持续走强。在中 美经贸谈判取得实时性进展背景下，市场风险偏好得到提振，本周三夜盘国内沪胶期货 2509 合约略 微收涨 0.20%至 15185 元/吨，预计本周四国内橡胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 备 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-05-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素支撑，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：虽然国内煤制甲醇生产利润出现回落，但随着节前多套装置陆续重启，供应压力再度回 升并刷新周度产量历史新高。目前下游需求有所改善，甲醇制烯烃期货盘面利润回暖有助于提振港 口采购热情，港口库存去化较为顺畅。在中美经贸谈判取得实时性进展背景下，市场风险偏好得到 提振，本周三夜盘国内甲醇期货 2509 合约小幅收涨 0.86%至 2353 元/吨，预计本周四国内甲醇期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强走势。 < END > 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and oscillating trend [1][5] - Crude oil is supported by bullish factors and will run strongly [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The trend of crude oil 2507 is oscillating [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2507 is oscillating, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also oscillating [1][5] - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2507 is slightly bullish and oscillating, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is the same [1][5] Core Logic - Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved substantial results, and macro factors have turned optimistic [5] - OPEC+ oil - producing countries have accelerated capacity release without causing oil prices to fall below previous lows [5] - The peak crude oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere has arrived, refinery operating rates have rebounded, and commercial inventories have entered a destocking cycle [5] - International funds are expected to increase net long positions in the oil market [5] Price Performance - On Wednesday night, the price of domestic crude oil futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.02% to 478.4 yuan per barrel [5]