投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜铝突破上行 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价增仓上行，主力期价突破 7.8 万关口，日内维持强势运 行，午后再度增仓上行，逼近 7.9 万关口。近期铜价上行很大程度上 受益于中美关系缓和。产业低库存格局下，内外宏观氛围回暖，预 计铜价维持强势运行，上方关注 7.9-8 万关口压力。 沪铝 昨夜铝价增仓上行，突破 2 万关口，日内维持强势上行，但持仓 量持续下降。近期铝价上行很大程度上受益于中美关系缓和。低库存 格局下，宏观氛围回暖推动铝价反弹。短期期价突 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 1.23%. Supply contraction is hard to sustain, demand is likely to weaken seasonally, and fundamentals haven't improved substantially. Steel prices remain under pressure, but due to positive market sentiment, the short - term trend will be a volatile rebound. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate was strong with a daily increase of 1.27%. Supply is at a high level with relatively large pressure, and demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, overseas risks have eased, market sentiment has warmed up, and in the short - term, prices will oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore continued to rise with a daily increase of 2.43%. Supported by the repair of the discount due to improved market sentiment, the price is strong in the short - term. But ore demand is approaching its peak, supply remains high, and the fundamentals are likely to weaken. Be cautious about bullishness at high levels [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In the economic and trade talks between China and the US in Geneva, both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, and China also took corresponding actions. China's counter - measures against the US over fentanyl remain effective [6]. - Xinyang will implement spot - house sales for newly - developed commercial housing on newly - transferred land. The measure is for public consultation from May 6 to May 15, 2025 [7]. - In early May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.05 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 220,500 tons (a 0.2% daily increase). Pig iron output was 19.9 million tons, with an average daily output of 199,000 tons (a 1.6% daily increase). Steel output was 20.83 million tons, with an average daily output of 208,300 tons (an 8.4% daily decrease) [7]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, etc., and their price changes are presented, along with the prices and changes of iron ore - related products such as 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, etc. [8] 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, and open interest changes of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore are shown. For example, the rebar main contract closed at 3,127 with a 1.23% increase, trading volume of 2,134,942, and a decrease in open interest of 39,651 [10]. 4. Related Charts - Include price trend charts of steel and iron ore, inventory charts of steel and iron ore (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore at 45 ports), and charts related to steel mill production (such as blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making steel mill ratio) [8][9][12] 5.后市研判 - For rebar, supply contraction is hard to sustain, demand is likely to weaken seasonally, and fundamentals haven't improved substantially. Steel prices are under pressure, but short - term trend is a volatile rebound due to positive market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - For hot - rolled coil plate, supply is at a high level, demand is weakening, and fundamentals are weak. Prices are under pressure, but short - term prices will oscillate strongly due to improved market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, demand is approaching its peak, supply remains high, and fundamentals are likely to weaken. Although the short - term trend is strong, be cautious about bullishness at high levels [38].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on May 14, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to help investors understand the market situation through the analysis of basis, inter - period spread, and inter - variety spread. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On May 13, 2025, the basis was - 182.4 yuan/ton, showing a continuous negative value trend in recent days [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented, with the basis of INE crude oil and fuel oil fluctuating in recent days [6]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc. are provided, with significant fluctuations in the basis of natural rubber in recent days [7]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber being - 1045 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented, with the LLDPE - PVC spread being 2309 yuan/ton on May 13, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, with the basis of rebar showing an upward trend in recent days [12]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 69.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are presented, with the rebar/iron ore ratio being 4.31 on May 13, 2025 [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market** - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided, with significant fluctuations in the basis of copper in recent days [20]. - **Import and Export Data**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of various non - ferrous metals are presented, with all non - ferrous metals showing import losses except lead [26]. - **London Market**: The LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals are presented [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are provided, with the basis of soybeans showing a negative value in recent days [36]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans being 48 yuan/ton [36]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are presented, with the soybean/corn ratio being 1.77 on May 13, 2025 [34]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, with the basis of all indices showing positive values on May 13, 2025 [44]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given, such as the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 being - 40.8 [44].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-14 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation and weakening, and an intraday outlook of oscillation and strengthening [1][5]. - Due to OPEC+ accelerating production increase in June and the steady growth of US shale oil production, the expectation of oil market supply surplus has increased. However, as the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, demand factors may gradually strengthen, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite. The domestic crude oil futures price rose 1.92% to 482.5 yuan/barrel on Tuesday night, and the 2507 contract is expected to maintain an oscillation and strengthening trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - period Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation and weakening [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of the crude oil 2507 contract is oscillation and strengthening [1][5]. 3.2 Price Calculation and Fluctuation Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline between 0 - 1% is oscillation and weakening, an increase between 0 - 1% is oscillation and strengthening, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - Oscillation and strengthening/weakening are only applicable to intraday views, not for short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.3 Market Driving Logic - Supply side: OPEC+ is accelerating production increase in June, and US shale oil production is growing steadily, increasing the expectation of oil market supply surplus [5]. - Demand side: As the crude oil consumption peak season approaches in mid - May, demand factors may strengthen, providing support for crude oil futures prices [5]. - Macro factor: The progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a 1.92% increase in domestic crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that stock index futures will show an overall trend of range - bound fluctuations in the short - and medium - term, with an intraday view of being slightly stronger. Policy - side benefits provide strong support, and the stock index is expected to operate slightly stronger in the short term under the impetus of positive policy expectations [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2506 variety, the short - term view is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, the intraday view is slightly stronger, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that policy - side benefits form strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and sorted within a narrow range. The total trading volume of the stock market was 132.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.49 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating that market sentiment is cautiously optimistic [5]. - **Core Logic**: First, the policy side will introduce policies to stabilize macro - economic demand, which is beneficial to stabilizing the performance expectations of listed companies. The weakening of the manufacturing PMI data in April and the continued decline of inflation indicators show the necessity of policy - driven stable growth. Second, the policy side emphasizes stabilizing stock market expectations, and the bottom support of the stock market is strong. Relevant departments have actively introduced policies to stabilize stock market expectations, promote the improvement of the quality and income of listed companies, improve the assessment systems of public funds and insurance, promote incremental funds to continuously allocate to the stock market, and give play to the role of Huijin Company as a quasi - stabilization fund. Third, a joint statement was issued in Sino - US economic and trade relations, marking a substantial easing of the short - term Sino - US tariff war, reducing external negative factors, and the recent restart of Sino - US orders is conducive to macro - economic repair [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Gold 2508 is expected to decline in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term, with a short - term bearish view due to the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - Nickel 2506 is expected to decline in the short - term, fluctuate in the medium - term, and show a weak - fluctuating trend intraday, with a wait - and - see view because of the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement and Support**: On May 12, after the release of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement, the short - term safe - haven demand decreased, and the gold price was under downward pressure. Shanghai gold stabilized and fluctuated at the 760 level, corresponding to New York gold at the 3200 level. If this support is broken, the willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may increase, and the gold price will remain weak. Also, a continuous rebound of the US dollar index may lead to a continuous weak performance of the gold price [3]. Nickel - **Price Trend**: Since this week, the nickel price has risen and then fallen. Although there were macro - level positive factors such as China's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts last week and the Sino - US joint statement this week, the nickel price was weak compared to other low - inventory non - ferrous metals like copper and aluminum. - **Influencing Factors**: The nickel price is greatly affected by the industrial fundamentals. The strong upstream ore end supports the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure on it. It is expected to fluctuate, and the macro - environment determines whether it is a strong - or weak - fluctuating trend [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that for the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term, medium - term trend is sideways, and the intraday trend is slightly sideways down. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line as the fundamentals are likely to weaken and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term trend of iron ore 2509 is sideways, and the intraday trend is slightly sideways down. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are likely to weaken and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. High terminal consumption of ore supports the ore price, but the steel market is facing seasonal weakness, limiting the increase in ore demand and weakening the positive effect. - Although the port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are falling, the overall decline is not large, and domestic ore production is active, keeping the overall supply at a high level. - Due to the warming of market sentiment, the discounted ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, the increase in ore demand is limited, while the supply remains high. The fundamentals are still likely to weaken, and the upward driving force is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2] - The steel futures price oscillates and rebounds with the warming of the commodity market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of rebar runs stably, with the output decreasing month - on - month and demand weakening significantly under the influence of holidays. The fundamentals of rebar are difficult to improve substantially, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the stable supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up, leading to an oscillating rebound in steel futures prices. The supply of rebar has contracted with a month - on - month decrease in output, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The demand has weakened significantly due to holiday factors and is expected to continue the seasonal decline. The fundamentals of rebar are difficult to improve substantially, and steel prices are under pressure. With low inventory and weak market sentiment, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the demand performance should be monitored [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 and synthetic rubber futures contract 2507 are expected to run strongly on May 14, 2025, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being weakly volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed up 1.63% to 15,240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, and new rubber supply will gradually increase. After the May Day holiday, the tire industry's start - up rate has rebounded, and procurement demand is expected to strengthen. However, due to the lack of continuous improvement in the supply - demand structure and a slight increase in rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it is difficult to support the continuous strengthening of post - holiday rubber prices. The progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Tuesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract rebounded 3.17% to 12,515 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ agreed to continue the accelerated production increase in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the digestion of bearish sentiment, oil prices stabilized. Supported by cost factors and the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted [7].