Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Gold 2508 is expected to decline in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term, with a short - term bearish view due to the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - Nickel 2506 is expected to decline in the short - term, fluctuate in the medium - term, and show a weak - fluctuating trend intraday, with a wait - and - see view because of the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement and Support**: On May 12, after the release of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement, the short - term safe - haven demand decreased, and the gold price was under downward pressure. Shanghai gold stabilized and fluctuated at the 760 level, corresponding to New York gold at the 3200 level. If this support is broken, the willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may increase, and the gold price will remain weak. Also, a continuous rebound of the US dollar index may lead to a continuous weak performance of the gold price [3]. Nickel - **Price Trend**: Since this week, the nickel price has risen and then fallen. Although there were macro - level positive factors such as China's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts last week and the Sino - US joint statement this week, the nickel price was weak compared to other low - inventory non - ferrous metals like copper and aluminum. - **Influencing Factors**: The nickel price is greatly affected by the industrial fundamentals. The strong upstream ore end supports the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure on it. It is expected to fluctuate, and the macro - environment determines whether it is a strong - or weak - fluctuating trend [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that for the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term, medium - term trend is sideways, and the intraday trend is slightly sideways down. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line as the fundamentals are likely to weaken and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term trend of iron ore 2509 is sideways, and the intraday trend is slightly sideways down. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are likely to weaken and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. High terminal consumption of ore supports the ore price, but the steel market is facing seasonal weakness, limiting the increase in ore demand and weakening the positive effect. - Although the port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are falling, the overall decline is not large, and domestic ore production is active, keeping the overall supply at a high level. - Due to the warming of market sentiment, the discounted ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, the increase in ore demand is limited, while the supply remains high. The fundamentals are still likely to weaken, and the upward driving force is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2] - The steel futures price oscillates and rebounds with the warming of the commodity market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of rebar runs stably, with the output decreasing month - on - month and demand weakening significantly under the influence of holidays. The fundamentals of rebar are difficult to improve substantially, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the stable supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up, leading to an oscillating rebound in steel futures prices. The supply of rebar has contracted with a month - on - month decrease in output, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The demand has weakened significantly due to holiday factors and is expected to continue the seasonal decline. The fundamentals of rebar are difficult to improve substantially, and steel prices are under pressure. With low inventory and weak market sentiment, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the demand performance should be monitored [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 and synthetic rubber futures contract 2507 are expected to run strongly on May 14, 2025, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being weakly volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed up 1.63% to 15,240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, and new rubber supply will gradually increase. After the May Day holiday, the tire industry's start - up rate has rebounded, and procurement demand is expected to strengthen. However, due to the lack of continuous improvement in the supply - demand structure and a slight increase in rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it is difficult to support the continuous strengthening of post - holiday rubber prices. The progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted market risk appetite [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Tuesday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract rebounded 3.17% to 12,515 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ agreed to continue the accelerated production increase in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the digestion of bearish sentiment, oil prices stabilized. Supported by cost factors and the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term view of oscillation, a medium - term view of oscillation and weakness, and an intraday view of oscillation and strength [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant increase of 352,000 tons compared with 1.7058 million tons in the same period last year [5] - On the night of Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract closed up 2.10% to 2,329 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] Supply and Demand - Although the production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol has declined, with the restart of multiple plants before the festival, the supply pressure has risen again and reached a new weekly production high [5] - The downstream demand has improved, the futures market profit of methanol - to - olefins has recovered, which helps boost the port's purchasing enthusiasm, and the port inventory has been smoothly reduced [5] Macro Factor - Against the background of real progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2506 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with the overall view being "range - bound oscillation" due to the fulfillment of interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". In the short term, the upside and downside space for bond futures is limited, and they are expected to remain range - bound [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2506, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively. The core logic is that the interest - rate cut expectation has been fulfilled, and it is in short - term range - bound consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is that in the long - term, due to large external uncertainties, the central bank needs to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a solid policy basis for the upward movement of bonds. Currently, the implied interest - rate cut expectation in bond futures prices is low, indicating strong bottom support. However, after the release of the China - US economic and trade talks joint statement, the short - term risk of the tariff war has eased, the Fed's hawkish stance has put pressure on the exchange - rate spread, and the central bank's recent interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts require further observation of macroeconomic indicators to determine the pace and intensity of monetary easing, resulting in limited upward momentum for bond futures [4].

宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着美国农业部报告利多影响释放，美豆期价大涨，内外盘豆类价差持续修复。国内油厂开机 率逐渐恢复，短期现货供应恢复节奏偏慢，对现货行情仍然形成一定支撑，但供应宽松预期不断强化。近 月供应压力不断增加，令基差快速回落，未来几日期现价差仍将快速回归。国内受到供应恢复预期的压制， 短期豆粕期价维持震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） < END > 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 基本面拖累，焦煤震荡调整 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭低位震荡 | 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：5 月 13 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约报收 879.0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 悲观情绪仍存，煤焦再次回落 核心观点 焦炭：5 月 13 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1447 元/吨，日内录得 0.69%的跌 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.20 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1267 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级平仓价最新报价为 1440 元/吨，周环比 持平，折合期货仓单成本约 1583 元/吨。本周，中美关税摩擦迎来降温， 中、美在 90 天内大幅下调关税税率，一度带动焦炭期货低位小幅反弹。 不过，目前焦炭成本端拖累仍较为明显 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with the main contract closing above the 78,000 yuan mark. The recent upward movement of copper prices is largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. Although the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the decline of gold prices at high levels put some pressure on copper prices, in the context of low industrial inventories and a warming macro - environment, copper prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated around the 20,000 yuan mark. The recent increase in aluminum prices is also largely due to the easing of Sino - US relations. In a low - inventory situation, the warming macro - environment has pushed up aluminum prices. However, the short - term price rebound to the 20,000 - yuan mark faces technical pressure, and upstream electrolytic aluminum plants have a strong hedging intention due to high profits. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 20,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices showed a weak and volatile trend, with continuous increase in positions. After a short - term rebound to the high in April, nickel prices fell back. The market's increasing expectation of the Philippine ore - ban policy has largely driven the nickel price to bottom out and rebound, while the long - term oversupply of nickel elements suppresses the nickel price. It is expected that the futures price will tend to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at last week's low [6]. Industry Dynamics Summary - **Copper**: On May 12, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 124,900 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared to the 6th [8]. - **Nickel**: On May 12, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,750 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,250 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,650 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts Summary Copper - **Copper Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai [10]. - **Copper Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE copper and the main continuous contract [15]. - **Domestic Visible Inventory of Electrolytic Copper**: It includes social inventory and bonded - area inventory [12]. - **Overseas Copper Exchange Inventory**: Relevant inventory data from overseas exchanges [17]. - **LME Copper Cancellation Ratio**: The chart shows the cancellation ratio of LME copper and inventory [13]. - **SHFE Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [18]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the average price of aluminum premium and discount in the Yangtze River spot market and the futures closing price of aluminum [22]. - **Domestic Social Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The chart shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Aluminum Oxide Trend**: The chart shows the futures closing price and the national average price of aluminum oxide [26]. - **Aluminum Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of aluminum futures [28]. - **Overseas Exchange Inventory of Electrolytic Aluminum**: It includes LME and COMEX inventories [33]. - **Aluminum Oxide Inventory**: The chart shows the total inventory and port inventory of aluminum oxide [31]. Nickel - **Nickel Basis**: The chart shows the relationship between the basis and the spot tax - inclusive average price of 1 electrolytic nickel in Shanghai [34]. - **LME Inventory**: The chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancellation ratio [36]. - **LME Nickel Trend**: The chart shows the LME nickel 3M electronic - trading price and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread [38]. - **Nickel Monthly Spread**: The chart shows the monthly spread of SHFE nickel [40]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The chart shows the SHFE nickel inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [42]. - **Nickel Ore Port Inventory**: The chart shows the nickel ore port inventory [44].