Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and oscillating trend [1][5] - Crude oil is supported by bullish factors and will run strongly [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The trend of crude oil 2507 is oscillating [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2507 is oscillating, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also oscillating [1][5] - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2507 is slightly bullish and oscillating, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is the same [1][5] Core Logic - Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved substantial results, and macro factors have turned optimistic [5] - OPEC+ oil - producing countries have accelerated capacity release without causing oil prices to fall below previous lows [5] - The peak crude oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere has arrived, refinery operating rates have rebounded, and commercial inventories have entered a destocking cycle [5] - International funds are expected to increase net long positions in the oil market [5] Price Performance - On Wednesday night, the price of domestic crude oil futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.02% to 478.4 yuan per barrel [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of treasury bond futures is range - bound. In the short - term, they will mainly be in a consolidation phase. In the medium - to - long - term, the basis for an upward trend is relatively solid with strong bottom support [4]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to the downside". The reference view is "range - bound", and the core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, so it will mainly be in short - term sideways consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "sideways to the downside", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "range - bound". In the medium - to - long - term, due to high external uncertainties, the policy will continue to boost domestic demand, the monetary environment will be supportive, and there is still an expectation of policy interest rate cuts, so the upward basis of treasury bond futures is firm. In the short - term, the easing of external tariff wars and the need to test the effects of the central bank's interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts lead to insufficient upward momentum. However, the upward movement of market interest rates is restricted by policy interest rates, so the downward space is limited [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term prices of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures are all expected to be oscillating on the strong side, but the medium - term trends are all oscillating. However, the continued rebound space for soybean meal futures prices is limited, and the long - term supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose, which still exerts pressure on long - term prices [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating on the strong side, with the reference view also being oscillating on the strong side [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The extension of the US Clean Fuel Tax Credit 45Z to December 31, 2031, may maintain the demand for soybean oil as a raw material in the renewable diesel industry. After the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans is repaired, a linkage market emerges. Although the domestic oil mill operating rate is gradually recovering, the pressure - vehicle phenomenon still exists, and the short - term spot supply recovery rhythm is slow, which still supports the spot market. The long - term supply is expected to be loose, which still pressures long - term prices. The short - term soybean meal futures price is oscillating on the strong side, but the continued rebound space is limited [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, North American spring sowing weather, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating on the strong side, with the reference view also being oscillating on the strong side [7]. - **Core Logic**: Indonesia will raise the special export tax on crude palm oil from 7.5% of the current reference price to 10% starting from May 17, which aims to raise more funds for the country's biodiesel blending and makes the implementation of B40 more likely. The Malaysian palm oil price has rebounded from the previous inventory pressure, boosting the domestic palm oil futures price. The short - term palm oil futures price is oscillating on the strong side [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil - **Viewpoints**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating on the strong side, with the reference view also being oscillating on the strong side [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views for both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side", and the overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. - For coking coal, policy - side benefits drive a small upward rebound in futures, but the supply - demand relaxation situation restricts the rebound space, and it is expected to maintain low - level oscillation [5]. - For coke, short - term demand is okay and policy benefits improve the market atmosphere, but cost - side pressure from coking coal exists, and it is expected to maintain low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1015.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 1.5%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 988 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Logic**: The relaxation of overseas pressure due to the Sino - US tariff consensus and a package of domestic favorable policies drive the upward rebound of coking coal futures. However, its weak fundamentals suppress the rebound strength, and the supply - demand relaxation restricts the rebound space [5]. Coke - **Price Information**: The latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Logic**: The cooling of Sino - US tariff friction drives a small rebound in coke futures. But there is a significant cost - side drag, the slowdown of fundamental benefits, and the limited growth space for molten iron output, so it is expected to maintain low - level oscillation [6].

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 弱预期迎修复，钢价震荡企稳 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 15 日） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，螺纹钢周产量环比下降，供应有所收缩；同时高频需求指标同样走 弱，且主要下游行业并未好转，后续仍将季节性走弱，供需双弱局面下螺纹基本面并未实质性改 善，钢价仍易承压，相对利好则是市场情绪偏暖，短期走势维持震荡企稳态势，关注今日钢联公布 的产销数据情况。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that they are expected to operate with a slight upward trend, and the medium - term view is that they will fluctuate. The overall reference view is range - bound. This is due to the cooling of external risk factors and the expectation of policy benefits [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term, medium - term view is fluctuating, and the intraday view is slightly upward. The overall view is range - bound, with policy benefits providing strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly upward, and the medium - term view is fluctuating, with a reference view of range - bound. The previous day, all stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite 50 leading the gains. The full - market trading volume was 1349.9 billion yuan, an increase of 23.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The large - finance and shipping sectors were strong. Central bank interest rate and reserve requirement cuts benefited the large - finance sector, and the 90 - day buffer period of the Sino - US tariff war and the "order - grabbing" effect benefited the shipping sector. With reduced overseas uncertainties and clear domestic policy support, the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report Core View - The short - term view of gold 2508 is bearish, with a mid - term view of consolidation, and a short - term weakening outlook due to the easing of Sino - US relations which reduces the safe - haven demand and puts pressure on gold prices [1][3]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is bearish, the mid - term view is consolidation, and the intraday view is weakly consolidating. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel market affect the price [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: After the release of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement on May 12, the short - term safe - haven demand decreased, and gold prices were under pressure. The Shanghai gold stabilized and consolidated at the 760 level, corresponding to New York gold at the 3200 level. After the market, overseas gold prices tumbled, with New York gold breaking below the 3200 - dollar mark, and Shanghai gold opened lower at the 750 - yuan level in the night session and weakly consolidated [3]. - **Policy Impact**: The US revoked 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods on May 14, and modified the 34% reciprocal tariff measures on Chinese goods, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. This led to a significant change in the international situation, an obvious increase in market risk appetite, and a sharp decline in safe - haven demand, resulting in the expected short - term weak operation of gold prices [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices continued to rebound. Due to the RRR cut and interest rate cut in China last week and the Sino - US joint statement this week, non - ferrous metals with low inventories such as copper and aluminum trended upward, but nickel's performance was relatively weak among non - ferrous metals, indicating that the industrial fundamentals were suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The strong upstream nickel ore provides support for the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure. The overall trend of nickel prices is greatly affected by industrial fundamentals. With a good macro - environment, nickel prices are expected to consolidate with an upward bias, and the pressure at the April high should be continuously monitored [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA60 line, with the repair of the discount supporting the relatively strong operation of the ore price [1]. - Due to the recovery of market sentiment, the ore price leads the industry chain under the logic of discount repair and maintains a relatively strong short - term operation. However, as demand is approaching its peak and supply remains high, the fundamentals have not improved, the upward driving force is weak, and caution should be exercised when the price is high [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly stronger. The core logic is that the repair of the discount supports the relatively strong operation of the ore price, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA60 line [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is stable. Steel mill production is stabilizing, and ore demand remains high, which supports the ore price. But the steel market is facing seasonal weakness, and ore demand may reach its peak, so the positive effect is not strong. Port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are continuously declining slightly, while domestic ore production is active, and ore supply remains high. The ore price leads the industry chain under the logic of discount repair due to the recovery of market sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The convergence of the 9 - 1 spread, positive macro - factors, supply reduction from Thailand's delayed rubber tapping, and improved raw material procurement in the domestic tire industry after the holiday support this view [6]. - The domestic methanol futures price may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The narrowing of the 9 - 1 spread and the improved risk appetite in the methanol futures market due to positive macro - factors contribute to this prediction [6]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The improved risk appetite in the crude oil futures market under positive macro - factors supports this outlook [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 614,200 tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 4.3% and the general trade inventory by 0.38%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 2.17 percentage points and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points. For general trade warehouses, the inbound rate decreased by 1.16 percentage points and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a 14.74% week - on - week decline and a 4.40 percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a week - on - week decline of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decline of 17.80 percentage points [9]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 19% month - on - month decrease but a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [9]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.9% and 10.8%. For the first time in history, the production and sales in the first four months exceeded 10 million [10]. Methanol - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants ended, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, a 4.16% month - on - month increase, and a 9.89% year - on - year increase. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a 0.22% week - on - week decrease; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a 0.21% week - on - week increase; the operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a 6.78% week - on - week increase; the operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a 4.68% week - on - week decrease. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a 2.72 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 4.43 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The futures profit of methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase and a 151 - yuan/ton month - on - month rebound [12]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. As of the week of May 8, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 303,900 tons, a 7.23% week - on - week increase, a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The US daily crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels/day [15]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a 0.4 - percentage - point week - on - week increase, a 2.3 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, and a 0.50 - percentage - point year - on - year increase [15]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and weak pattern. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased slightly week - on - week, while the net long positions in Brent crude oil decreased significantly week - on - week [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,235 yuan/ton | +240 yuan/ton | - 385 yuan/ton | - 240 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,522 yuan/ton | +57 yuan/ton | 2,365 yuan/ton | +74 yuan/ton | +157 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 479.3 yuan/barrel | +8.8 yuan/barrel | - 27.5 yuan/barrel | - 9.0 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, spread, inventory, operating rate, and net position charts [18][30][42]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 政策利好发酵，煤焦低位反弹 核心观点 焦炭：5 月 14 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1482 元/吨，日内录得 1.58%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.01 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-1967 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级平仓价最新报价为 1440 元/吨，周环比 持平，折合期货仓单成本约 1583 元/吨。本周，中美关税摩擦迎来降温， 中、美在 90 天内大幅下调关税税率，一度带动焦炭期货低位小幅反弹。 不过，目前焦炭成本端拖累仍较为明显 ...