投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 11 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿承压回落 核心观点 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.03%日跌幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应重回高位，而需求表现强劲，基本面表现平稳，支撑价格 相对偏强运行，但需求改善力度有待跟踪，高供应下一旦需求走弱则产 业矛盾仍易累积，届时价格再度承压下行，重点关注需求变化情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡走弱，录得 0.81%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，铁矿石需求韧性尚可，且供应短期收缩，基本面表现平稳，继续支 撑矿价高位偏强震荡运行，但估值相对偏高，上行空间谨慎乐观，关注 钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.51%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 供需双弱局面下螺纹钢基本面表现偏弱，产业矛盾持续累积，钢价易承 压运行，相对利好则是成本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 11, the coke main contract closed at 1,630 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.81%. The position of the main contract was 46,900 lots, a net increase of 472 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke decreased by 3.18% week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port increased by 0.70% week - on - week. Coke supply and demand have not improved significantly. After the 9/3 parade, coke enterprises and steel mills gradually resumed production, but concerns on the demand side emerged due to shrinking profits of downstream steel mills. The "anti - involution" policy expectation still disturbs the market, supporting coke to maintain a volatile operation [5][33]. - On September 11, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,141.5 points, with an intraday increase of 2.33%. The position of the main contract was 718,100 lots, a net increase of 13,673 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 3.4% week - on - week. Domestic coking coal production has been suppressed, but the optimistic atmosphere in the futures market has cooled due to the lack of further production - cut expectations, and the demand - drag logic has become more prominent. However, the "anti - involution" news still disturbs the market, and there is some resistance to the downward movement of coking coal futures. The market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the main contract is oscillating within a range [6][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. Production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 37.3% and 36.7%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%, among which new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [7]. - On September 11, Mongolia's small TT company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of Mongolian No. 4 raw coal was $90/ton, and the listed quantity of 51,200 tons was fully sold at a transaction price of $101.5/ton. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being December 11, 2025 [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index was 1,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.18%. Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke ex - warehouse price was 1,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.70%. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.4% [5][6][12]. 3.3 Futures Market - The coke main contract closed at 1,630 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.81%, a trading volume of 22,593 lots (a decrease of 1,062 lots from the previous day), and a position of 46,939 lots (an increase of 472 lots from the previous day). The coking coal main contract closed at 1,141.5 points, with an intraday increase of 2.33%, a trading volume of 1,064,365 lots (an increase of 57,148 lots from the previous day), and a position of 718,075 lots (an increase of 13,673 lots from the previous day) [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including coke and coking coal inventory charts (such as 230 independent coking plants' coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plant coke inventory, etc.), domestic steel mill production situation, Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [14][27][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Coke's main contract situation and market analysis are the same as the core viewpoints. Coking coal's main contract situation and market analysis are also consistent with the core viewpoints, with both maintaining a volatile operation due to the influence of multiple factors [5][6][33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Copper Futures**: The copper price oscillated above 80,000 today with an increase in open interest. Macroeconomically, the US August PPI data was much lower than market expectations, easing wholesale inflation pressure and increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which is positive for copper prices. Industrially, the domestic industrial peak season is providing stronger support for futures prices. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro situation and the industry entering the peak season, the futures price is expected to be bullish. Technically, the futures price increased in volume and open interest, breaking through the 80,000 mark with strong upward momentum [5]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The aluminum price increased significantly in volume and open interest today, with the main futures price breaking through 20,900 and approaching the late - July high. Macroeconomically, the increasing overseas interest - rate cut expectations pushed up the non - ferrous metal sector. Industrially, SMM reported a concentrated pick - up of goods in LME warehouses, leading to regional supply tightness, making the aluminum price stronger than the non - ferrous metal sector. Technically, it is approaching the high since July, and technical pressure should be monitored [6]. - **Nickel Futures**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom today, showing an overall oscillating trend. Macroeconomically, the increasing overseas interest - rate cut expectations pushed up the non - ferrous metal sector. Industrially, the domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory have been continuously rising, which is negative for nickel prices. With macro - level benefits and industrial weakness, the futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to September 4 and a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to September 8 [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 11, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was in the range of 120,200 - 122,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount quotation range was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][15][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum average premium and discount, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [23][29][25]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][43].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 11 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货低位震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均维持低位震荡整理。今日股市单边上升，股市风险偏好 回升对债市构成压制。通胀数据表现仍偏弱，后续政策面将继续出台稳需求 政策，推动通胀温和回升，预计四季度财政政策将加码，因此对国债构成供 给端压力。由于短期内全面降息的必要性不足，短期内市场利率下行空间有 限，国债期货继续上行的动能有所不足。总的来说，预计短期内国债期货以 低位震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 1 行业新闻及相关图表 9 月 11 日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2920 亿元逆回 购操作，操作利率 1.40％，与此前持平。因今日有 2126 亿元 7 天期逆回购到期， 当日实现净投放 794 亿元。 专业研究·创造价值 2 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for propylene is to maintain a weak and volatile trend [1] Core View of the Report - Although the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is increasing and the macro - factor is improving, the propylene industry factor remains weak. With the increase in domestic propylene production, external import pressure, and weak downstream demand, the domestic propylene inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the 2601 contract of propylene futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2][5] Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance of Propylene Futures - Since the listing of the domestic propylene futures 2601 contract, the price has been in a downward trend after reaching a high of 6,708 yuan/ton on the first day. This week, it has been running in the range of 6,350 - 6,450 yuan/ton [2] Impact of Macro - factors - The Fed's internal call for interest rate cuts is increasing. The weak employment data in August has strengthened the market expectation of an interest rate cut in the September meeting. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December. If the US labor market further weakens in September and October, the Fed may also cut interest rates in October, and the rate cut in 2026 "may be greater". The macro - factor improvement boosts the valuation of energy and chemical commodities [2] Supply of Propylene - Due to the profit repair of domestic PDH plants, the capacity utilization rate of domestic propylene plants increased by 0.9% to 73.4% in August 2025, with a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The output in August reached 5.3056 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15.7%. In early September, the production continued to increase. Considering the restart plans of some plants, the domestic propylene supply is expected to be gradually relaxed [3] - Although the supply from South Korea is expected to decrease, the increased supply from Southeast Asia will offset part of the reduction, and the import pressure of domestic propylene still exists [3] Demand for Propylene - Polypropylene accounts for more than two - thirds of propylene demand. Due to the negative feedback from the demand side, the profit of external - purchase PP plants is in a loss, and the raw material procurement willingness is low. Other downstream products have rigid demand but high - price raw materials suppress demand. It is predicted that the overall consumption of propylene in September 2025 may decline by 0.68% month - on - month [4] Inventory of Propylene - As of September 4, the domestic propylene manufacturer inventory was 37,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.55%, increasing the downward pressure on propylene prices [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation on the strong side" respectively. It is predicted that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Price and Trend** - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.04% to 2404 yuan/ton on Wednesday night [5]. - **Supply and Demand Situation** - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - demand structure is weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. - **Driving Factors** - With the slight rebound of domestic coal futures prices, there are differences between bulls and bears in the domestic methanol market, resulting in the oscillating and stabilizing trend of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract on Wednesday night [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The current concerns about geopolitical factors in the domestic and international crude oil futures markets have temporarily overshadowed the pressure of oversupply, leading to a volatile rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical risks have increased and dominated the recent stabilization of oil prices [5]. 3. Summary by Categories Market Outlook - Short - term outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile [1] - Medium - term outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile [1] - Intraday outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile and slightly stronger, with a reference view of a slightly stronger operation [1][5] Core Logic - The concerns about geopolitical factors such as Western sanctions on Russia, the escalating conflict between the US and Venezuela, and the Israeli air - strike on Qatar have overshadowed the pressure of crude oil oversupply, leading to a volatile rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical risks have dominated the recent stabilization of oil prices [5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.82% to 490.1 yuan/barrel [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 多空僵持，焦煤震荡调整 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 需求预期拖累，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：9 月 10 日夜盘，焦煤 2601 合约减仓上行，价格维持区 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term, the index futures are expected to be mainly in wide - range oscillations, while in the medium - term, they are expected to rise. The overall reference view is wide - range oscillations [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the medium - and long - term upward logic remains, but the short - term profit - taking intention of funds rises [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the stock market trading volume shrank, indicating market sentiment divergence and the need for market consolidation. Some stocks had large previous gains, leading to increased profit - taking demand and short - term technical adjustments. The latest inflation data is stable month - on - month but weak year - on - year, so there are still expectations of policy support. The margin trading balance keeps growing, and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market remains unchanged, which will continue to drive the index valuation repair [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views of TL2512 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - The main varieties TL, T, TF, TS have an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and a reference view of "oscillation". In the short term, the upward and downward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, and they are expected to be in low - level oscillation. In the long run, there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, and there is support below the treasury bond futures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Views Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is the co - existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations and low short - term comprehensive interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back. In the short term, the necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is insufficient, so the downward space of market interest rates is limited, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. The rebound momentum from late August to early September has weakened, and market interest rates have gradually recovered. - In the long run, monetary policy is supportive, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, so there is support below treasury bond futures. - Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has declined, and the stock market has entered an oscillatory adjustment. The siphoning effect of the equity market on bond market funds has weakened. - The latest inflation data shows a month - on - month stabilization but is still weak overall. Subsequent policy will continue to introduce demand - stabilizing policies, with fiscal policy as the main means. There may be some pressure on the supply side of treasury bonds in the fourth quarter [5].