期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 多空僵持，焦煤低位震荡 | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 三轮降价落地，焦炭低位运行 | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,205 yuan/ton, and the price closed 0.13% lower. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 2,175 yuan/ton and a low of 2,131 yuan/ton, and finally closed 0.23% lower at 2,155 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 39 yuan/ton. Driven by the slight rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday of this week, the 2602 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating strongly, and rebounding significantly. The price reached a high of 438.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 428.2 yuan/barrel, and finally closed 2.46% higher at 437.9 yuan/barrel. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has become prominent again, and the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, posing a risk of restricted oil exports from Venezuela. The enhanced geopolitical premium has driven the oil price to rebound, and the crude oil futures may stabilize temporarily in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%, and the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production of maintenance enterprises drove the capacity utilization rate, but the overall shipment was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase of the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run weakly and stably this week [9]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - duty truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 88,400 tons. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 9,500 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the US, was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels [13]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 58,433 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. As of December 16, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 40,988 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Futures Main Contract (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Basis (yuan) | Change in Basis (yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 | - 200 | 15,205 | +15 | - 355 | - 15 | | Methanol | 2,155 | +5 | 2,155 | +7 | 0 | - 7 | | Crude Oil | 395.2 | +0.1 | 437.9 | +11.3 | - 42.7 | - 11.2 | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][17] - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30] - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][43]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the weekly data of iron ore arrivals and shipments in the 51st week of 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The domestic arrivals at 47 ports decreased to 27.902 million tons, with a week - on - week drop of 1.379 million tons, showing a decline from the high level. The arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores decreased, while non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores reached a high for the year [2] - Overseas ore shipments decreased again, with the global total at 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week drop of 1.2805 million tons, also declining from the high. The decrease mainly came from major miners, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores were at a high for the year [2] - According to the shipping schedule, the arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores at domestic ports are expected to be stable, and overseas ore supply is relatively active [2] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Brief Review - Domestic 47 - port arrivals decreased, with Australian and Brazilian ores dropping and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores increasing. Overseas shipments decreased due to major miners, but non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores remained at a high [2] 2. Ore Arrival and Shipment Data - Arrival data: Northern six - port arrivals were 12.564 million tons, down 102,100 tons week - on - week (-7.52%); 45 - port arrivals were 26.467 million tons, down 76,700 tons (-2.82%); 47 - port arrivals were 27.902 million tons, down 137,900 tons (-4.71%). Among them, Australian ore at 47 ports decreased by 93,800 tons, Brazilian ore by 125,200 tons, and other ores increased by 81,100 tons [3] - Shipment data: Global shipments were 34.645 million tons, down 1.2805 million tons (-3.56%). Australian shipments decreased by 102,010 tons, Brazilian by 48,790 tons, and other regions increased by 22,760 tons. Among major miners, VALE's shipments decreased by 67,610 tons, RIO by 10,490 tons, BHP by 5,630 tons, and FMG by 66,940 tons [3] 3. Related Charts - The report includes charts on domestic port arrivals, global iron ore shipments, shipments of the four major miners, and estimated domestic arrivals of iron ore [4][6][8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and rose. The total market turnover of the stock market was 1865 billion yuan, an increase of 116.3 billion yuan from the previous day's turnover. The positive policy expectations in 2026 are gradually fermenting, driving the market risk appetite to gradually recover. The willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate has increased, providing strong support for the stock indices. However, in the short term, the trading volume of the stock market is still at a relatively low level, indicating that there are still differences in investors' risk preferences, and most of them are waiting and watching. In the medium and long term, the positive policy expectations and the trend of capital inflow remain favorable, and the support for the stock indices is strong. In general, the stock indices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. [3] - In terms of options, the position - to - call ratio (PCR) and implied volatility are neutral. A bull spread or ratio spread can be used with a moderately bullish approach. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On December 22, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.45% to close at 3.092; the 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.90% to close at 4.730; the 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.84% to close at 4.806; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.95% to close at 4611.62; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.07% to close at 7408.35; the 500ETF (SSE) rose 1.13% to close at 7.368; the 500ETF (SZSE) rose 1.11% to close at 2.908; the GEM ETF rose 2.19% to close at 3.175; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.32% to close at 3.456; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53% to close at 3020.23; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.81% to close at 1.41; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.87% to close at 1.36. [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on December 22, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 79.25 (previous day: 83.33), and the position PCR was 102.25 (previous day: 100.52). [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are given. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in January 2026 was 12.41%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 11.25%. [7] 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [9][11][13][19] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [20][22][24][28] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [33][35][37][41] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 300 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [45][47][49][53] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 1000 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [58][61][63][67] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [72][74][76][80] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [85][87][89][93] - **GEM ETF Options**: Include charts of GEM ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [98][100][102][106] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [111][113][115][119] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of SSE 50 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [124][126][128][132] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [137][139][140][143] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and implied volatility curves for different terms. [147][149][151]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. Currently, there is pressure above and support below Treasury bond futures, with weak driving forces, so they are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation. On the one hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts still anticipated. Coupled with the weak implied interest rate cut expectations in the current market interest rates, Treasury bond futures have strong support. On the other hand, in the short term, macroeconomic data shows strong resilience, and the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is not high. Coupled with fewer uncertainties and disturbances in the recent internal and external environment, Treasury bond futures lack upward drivers. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On December 22, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce the latest LPR quotation. The 1-year LPR was reported at 3.0%, the same as last month; the 5-year and above LPR was reported at 3.5%, also the same as last month. Thus, the LPR quotations for both tenors have remained unchanged for 7 consecutive months. On December 22, the central bank conducted 6.73 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, the same as before [6]

期货研究报告 核心观点 上周金价整体呈现震荡上行走势。宏观层面，多空因素交织：一 方面，美元指数在连续调整后触底回升，对以美元计价的黄金构成压 制；另一方面，日本央行加息落地，全球市场流动性预期改善，又为 金价提供了支撑。在此环境下，纽约金价多次尝试上攻每盎司4380美 元关口，但均遇阻回落，与之对应的国内沪金亦在每克 980 元附近面 临明显的技术阻力。这表明当前价位附近多空博弈激烈，市场分歧有 所加大。周五夜盘内外金价均站上阻力位，短期上行动能较强。 拉长周期看，自10月底中美元首在釜山举行会晤以来，全球市场 风险偏好持续回暖，黄金价格整体维持高位震荡格局。目前金价已再 度逼近 10 月末形成的阶段性高点，技术层面压力逐渐显现。后续需 密切关注价格在关键阻力区域的表现，若无法有效突破，短期可能延 续震荡整理态势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 贵金属 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 22 日 贵金属周报 日元加息落地，市场流动性回升 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.39%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，淡季基本面并未改善，钢价仍易承压，相 对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预期现实博弈下螺纹维持震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.28%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位去化 有限，价格继续承压，相对利好的是政 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the macro environment improved, and copper prices rose with increasing positions. Last week, copper prices first declined and then rebounded, with the trading volume increasing as prices rose. High copper prices have suppressed consumption, leading to a continuous weakening of the basis and monthly spreads, with a clear pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in futures prices. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at $0/ton and $0/lb. In the short term, macro factors are driving copper prices up, with strong upward momentum, and the industry is following passively. Keep an eye on the pressure at the $12,000 mark for LME copper and the RMB 95,000 mark for SHFE copper. [5] - Aluminum: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the macro environment improved, and aluminum prices rose with increasing positions. Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, similar to copper. After the interest rate hike on Friday, the market sentiment improved, and aluminum prices increased with positions, recovering the losses of the week. As aluminum prices rise, downstream sentiment is turning more cautious. The substitution of aluminum for copper in the home appliance industry is expected to increase, giving a strong consumption outlook for aluminum, which may also make long - term aluminum prices stronger than near - term ones. Technically, keep an eye on the high - level pressure in early December. [6] Group 3: Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1 Macro Factors - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike last Friday, it was a relief for the US dollar, and short - term market liquidity increased. The US dollar index and copper prices rebounded simultaneously. [10] 2 Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first declined and then rebounded, and the trading volume increased as prices rose. High copper prices have suppressed consumption, leading to a continuous weakening of the basis and monthly spreads, with a clear pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in futures prices. [5] 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, copper ore port inventories continued to rise from a low level and were approaching the same level as previous years. On December 19, Mysteel's copper ore port inventory was 680,000 tons, a weekly increase of 16,000 tons. The short - term increase in port inventories has slowed down, and the overall level is still at a low level compared to previous years. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at $0/ton and $0/lb. [25] 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 18, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 174,500 tons, a weekly increase of 3,300 tons, and the COMEX + LME inventory was 623,800 tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons. Short - term copper price increases have significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventories. However, there has been a clear divergence in domestic and overseas inventories since December, which may be due to stronger domestic industrial demand and overseas weakness, or may be digested through exports. [27] 2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper products rebounded month - on - month, indicating that downstream acceptance increased after copper prices reached a high and then declined in November. As copper prices broke through upwards at the end of November, it is expected that downstream sentiment will turn more cautious again, and the capacity utilization rate in December may decline significantly. SMM predicts that the total output of the copper rod industry in December will decrease by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of the operating rate, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points. [29] 3 Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, similar to copper. After the interest rate hike on Friday, the market sentiment improved, and aluminum prices increased with positions, recovering the losses of the week. As aluminum prices rise, downstream sentiment is turning more cautious, and the spot discounts of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum remain weak. [6] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 12, the aluminum ore port inventory was 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 355,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.69 million tons compared to the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina showed signs of stabilizing after fluctuations but remained weak overall. The improvement in the macro environment has stabilized it, but the weak industrial fundamentals have led to its weak performance. The strong aluminum prices and weak alumina prices have widened the profit margins of electrolytic aluminum plants. [44][45] 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 18, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 561,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 526,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week. Global electrolytic aluminum inventories are in a state of slow reduction at a low level, which provides strong industrial support for aluminum prices. [48] 3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods increased, indicating a recovery in downstream demand and a strong willingness of the downstream industry to replenish inventories at a low level. On December 18, the aluminum rod inventory was 100,700 tons, an increase of 14,200 tons from the previous week. The slight increase in aluminum rod inventory last week corresponded to the increase in processing fees, as aluminum rod production enterprises replenished inventories at a low price. [52][54] 4 Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices first declined and then rebounded, and the trading volume increased as prices rose. In the short term, macro factors are driving copper prices up, with strong upward momentum, and the industry is following passively. Keep an eye on the pressure at the $12,000 mark for LME copper and the RMB 95,000 mark for SHFE copper. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, similar to copper. The substitution of aluminum for copper in the home appliance industry is expected to increase, giving a strong consumption outlook for aluminum, which may also make long - term aluminum prices stronger than near - term ones. Technically, keep an eye on the high - level pressure in early December. [58]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产 量合计 109.49 万吨，周环比降 1.1 万吨；全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 226.55 万吨，周环比下降 2.65 万吨，钢厂盈利率周环比持平，维持 35.93%的水平，大部分钢厂仍处亏损状态，焦炭短期需求压力仍存。整体 来看，焦炭供需格局未明显改善，但下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期驱动 焦炭期货止跌反弹，关注后续钢厂补库节奏。 焦煤：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75.8 万 吨，环比增 0.8 万吨，同比降 4.1 万吨；下游焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量 合计 109.49 万吨，周环比降 1.1 万吨，减量主要集中在独立焦化厂。因 原材料焦煤价格上涨，独立焦化厂吨焦盈利走低，生产积极性下滑。整体 来看，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期 扰动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Shanghai Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, with the main contract price breaking through the 94,000 RMB mark, and LME copper approaching the $12,000 mark. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, market risk appetite and liquidity have recovered. Industrially, downstream buyers are hesitant. China's copper smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/lb. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $12,000 mark for LME copper [6]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, and on Monday, it fluctuated within a narrow range. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, market risk appetite rebounded, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. Industrially, the basis and calendar spread remained weak, and the industrial side had strong constraints. In the short term, attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the 22,400 RMB mark [7]. - **Shanghai Nickel**: On Friday night, Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a high level, with the open interest continuously rising. On Monday, Shanghai nickel significantly increased in volume and price, and the main contract price rose at the end of the session, breaking through the 120,000 RMB mark. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, non - ferrous metals generally rose, and nickel showed signs of a rebound from oversold conditions. Industrially, the spot premium continued to strengthen, providing support for the nickel price. In the short term, Shanghai nickel has changed from a short - covering rebound to a long - adding rebound, breaking through the high in early December, with strong upward momentum. In case of a short - term correction, attention can be paid to the support at the 120,000 RMB mark [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: China's smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/lb, compared with $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/lb in 2025. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the second batch of enterprises meeting the standards for waste copper and aluminum processing and utilization, with 26 enterprises on the list. The total number of enterprises meeting the standards in two batches is 53, covering 12 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. The total production capacity of these enterprises is about 8 million tons, including 500,000 tons for waste copper processing and distribution, 4 million tons for waste aluminum processing and distribution, and 3.5 million tons for direct recycling of recycled copper [10]. - **Aluminum**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 9.76% and a year - on - year increase of 22.50%. From January to November 2025, China cumulatively imported 187 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 29.61%. In November 2025, China imported 10.707 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 19.00% and a year - on - year increase of 34.08%. From January to November 2025, China cumulatively imported 138 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 38.25% [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum calendar spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum bar inventory, etc. [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel calendar spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [34][36][38]