Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - and medium - term, and a slightly weaker volatile trend intraday. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line, as the supply - demand pattern has changed and the upward trend of ore prices has weakened [1] - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Short - term ore demand has dropped significantly due to production restrictions, the contradiction in finished products is accumulating, steel mill profits are continuously shrinking, and the room for demand recovery is limited. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have rebounded, overseas miners' shipments have returned to a high level, and ore supply has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are likely to weaken, and high - valued ore prices are under pressure. However, the expectation of the peak season and the intervention of varietal arbitrage funds support the short - term high - level volatile trend of ore prices, and it is necessary to guard against the intensification of industrial contradictions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is slightly weaker volatile. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the change in the supply - demand pattern and the weakening of the upward trend of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Production restrictions have led to a significant short - term decline in ore demand, the contradiction in finished products is accumulating, steel mill profits are shrinking, and demand recovery space is limited. Domestic port arrivals have rebounded, overseas miners' shipments have reached a high level, and ore supply has increased. The fundamentals are likely to weaken, high - valued ore prices are under pressure, and the short - term high - level volatile trend is supported by the peak - season expectation and varietal arbitrage funds [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on September 5, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are - 111.4, - 113.4, - 117.4, - 120.4, - 121.4 yuan/ton respectively, and the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are all 0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil on September 4 is 142.49 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1382 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rubber on September 4 is - 910 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 75 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 4, LLDPE - PVC is 2354 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 48.0 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 4, the ratio of rebar to iron ore is 3.97 [21]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of rebar on September 4 is 93.0 yuan/ton [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on September 4 is 250 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4.2 London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper is (67.16) [35]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 4 is 95 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of various agricultural products are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 46 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, etc. from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are provided. For example, on September 4, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn is 1.80 [42]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 4 is 15.81 [54]. - **Inter - period**: The spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 9.4 [54].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The core logic is that the profit - taking demand of profitable funds has increased, leading to a short - term technical adjustment of the stock index, but in the long - term, policy support and loose capital will drive the stock index up [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term upward logic still exists, but the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Yesterday, the stock indexes oscillated weakly and fell sharply. The full - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2581.9 billion yuan, an increase of 186.2 billion yuan from the previous day, and nearly 3000 stocks in the whole market fell. Some stocks have achieved large increases, so the profit - taking demand of profitable funds has risen, causing a short - term technical adjustment of the stock index, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes. In the long - term, policy support and loose capital will drive the stock index up [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory outlook. The core logic is that there are still medium - to - long - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Yesterday, bond futures oscillated throughout the day. Due to the recent short - term adjustment in the stock market, risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the market interest rate's upward space is limited under the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate, so bond futures rebounded from the bottom. However, there is insufficient need for a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut, and the downward space of the short - term market interest rate is limited, so the upward momentum of bond futures may be insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the future monetary policy environment is generally loose, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has greatly weakened, so there is still room for interest rate cuts in the future, and bond futures are more likely to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In general, bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short - term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weakly oscillatory, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is the co - existence of medium - to - long - term interest rate cut expectations and low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated yesterday. The short - term stock market adjustment increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the policy interest rate limited the upward space of the market interest rate, leading to a rebound of bond futures. But short - term interest rate cut needs are insufficient, limiting the downward space of market interest rates and the upward momentum of bond futures. Attention should be paid to the bond issuance rhythm of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank's bond trading operations after the second meeting of the joint working group. In the medium - to - long - term, the loose monetary policy and the weakening RMB depreciation pressure due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut leave room for interest rate cuts, increasing the possibility of bond futures rising [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trading logic of the bean market has shifted to the weak reality, and the short - term rebound of soybean meal futures prices is under pressure, showing a weak and volatile trend. The medium - term view is in a volatile state [6]. - Palm oil is highly sensitive to crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term price of palm oil futures fluctuates around energy attributes and industrial changes, and is expected to be mainly in a wide - range volatile state. The medium - term view is also in a volatile state [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "weak and volatile", and the reference view is also "weak and volatile" [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The Sino - US trade prospect is the biggest uncertainty factor affecting the bean market. If a procurement agreement is reached, there is an expectation of price spread repair between domestic and foreign bean markets, and the risk of the long - term supply gap being falsified exists. The market trading logic has shifted to the more certain weak reality, leading to the short - term rebound pressure of soybean meal futures prices [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "weak and volatile", and the reference view is also "weak and volatile" [8][9]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil is still highly sensitive to crude oil price fluctuations. The market expects that the increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory may be limited due to strong exports. The short - term price of palm oil futures fluctuates around energy attributes and industrial changes [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 4, 2025, all stock indices showed weak oscillations and significant declines. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2581.9 billion yuan, an increase of 186.2 billion yuan from the previous day, and nearly 3000 stocks declined. Due to the significant gains of some stocks, the profit - taking demand of profit - making funds increased, leading to a short - term technical adjustment in the stock indices, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices being more affected. However, in the medium - to - long term, the positive policy expectations and loose capital situation strongly support the stock indices, and the logic of their upward movement remains strong. Recently, the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second group leader meeting, indicating a clear expectation of policy support for the economy. The liquidity is relatively loose, and in the context of the "asset shortage", the attractiveness of equity assets is strong, with incremental funds continuously flowing in, which will drive the repair of stock valuations. In general, due to the increased profit - taking demand of profit - making funds, the stock indices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options continues to rise. Considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock indices, one can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 4, 2025, the 50ETF fell 1.72% to 3.034; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 2.04% to 4.456; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 2.11% to 4.593; the CSI 300 Index fell 2.12% to 4365.21; the CSI 1000 Index fell 2.30% to 7041.15; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 2.32% to 6.779; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 2.62% to 2.710; the GEM ETF fell 4.15% to 2.751; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 2.54% to 3.226; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.71% to 2910.47; the STAR 50ETF fell 6.08% to 1.28; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 6.22% to 1.25 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various ETF options and index options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 94.23 (75.73 the previous day), and the position PCR was 81.16 (87.40 the previous day) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in September 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were reported. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in September 2025 was 19.16%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 14.44% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - The report provides a series of charts for different types of options, including the trends, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms of various ETF options and index options such as SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. [9][19][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract's futures price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.06% with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, both supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals have not improved, inventory has continued to increase, and steel prices are under pressure. With the relatively positive peak - season expectation and rising costs, steel prices will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract's futures price fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.24% with increasing volume and open interest. At present, production has decreased due to production restrictions, but it can recover quickly. On the contrary, demand resilience is weakening, and the contradiction in the hot - rolled coil industry is accumulating. Inventory growth has expanded, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the peak - season expectation and cost situation, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract's futures price rose strongly, recording a daily increase of 1.67% with increasing volume and open interest. Currently, iron ore demand is declining while supply is increasing. The fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken, and high - valued ore prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the peak - season expectation and support from variety arbitrage funds. Ore prices will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel price performance [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second group leader meeting to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [6]. - The personal mortgage loans of the six major state - owned banks shrank by 10.78 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, and the early repayment wave has eased compared with last year. Some banks no longer focus on mortgage business [7]. - Brazil imposed a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese tin - plated and chrome - plated steel coils, with the duty ranging from 284.34 to 499.35 US dollars per ton [8]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,200 yuan, with a national average of 3,280 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,350 yuan and 3,290 yuan respectively, with a national average of 3,419 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,960 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,070 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference is 150 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference is 1,130 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 785 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is also 785 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.06 yuan, and from Brazil is 24.29 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) is 103.34 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) is 103.60 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract is 3,117 yuan, with a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume is 1,231,326 lots, an increase of 62,178 lots, and the open interest is 1,736,432 lots, a decrease of 18,381 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract is 3,313 yuan, with an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume is 509,314 lots, an increase of 138,698 lots, and the open interest is 1,283,425 lots, an increase of 34,343 lots [13]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract is 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 1.67%. The trading volume is 392,627 lots, an increase of 103,429 lots, and the open interest is 506,983 lots, an increase of 41,053 lots [13]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes, total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][18][22]. - **Iron ore inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, seasonal inventory, inventory of 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [21][25][27]. - **Steel mill production**: There are charts showing the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the profitability of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills, and the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills [31][33][34]. 5. Future Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the weekly output has decreased by 1.88 tons. Demand is also weak, and the weekly apparent demand has slightly decreased. With unchanged fundamentals and increasing inventory, steel prices will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. During the parade, production was restricted, and the weekly output decreased by 10.50 tons. Demand has also declined, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 15.36 tons. The short - term trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - **Iron ore**: Both supply and demand are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is expected to decline. At the same time, domestic port arrivals are increasing, and overseas supply is high. Ore prices are prone to pressure and will maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to steel price performance [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, copper prices declined with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 80,000 mark. The domestic market has cooled significantly, with obvious capital outflows in both the equity and commodity markets. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" arrive, industrial support will strengthen. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices plunged in the morning and then fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, with the position volume continuously decreasing. The domestic market has cooled, and there are capital outflows in the equity and commodity markets. In the industry, the mid - stream electrolytic aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, while the aluminum rod inventory is slowly decreasing. As China enters the peak industrial seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", industrial support is expected to continuously strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average when the aluminum price drops [5]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices showed a downward trend today, with a slight decrease in the position volume. Non - ferrous metals generally declined at the macro level. At the industrial level, the impact of the demonstration in Indonesia has been digested by the market. In the short term, the weakening macro environment and the digestion of industrial disturbances have led to the decline of nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, the weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 78.4% compared with the previous week, and new orders also decreased by 0.81 percentage points. Currently, the industry has not shown signs of a peak season. Weak demand and high copper prices are intertwined, and both the operating rate and orders continue to decline [8]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,700 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report provides charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX) [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][36][37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile and slightly weak trend in the short - term (within a week), medium - term (two weeks to a month), and intraday. The main reason is the increasing supply pressure as the market fears that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will expand oil production capacity again, which outweighs the geopolitical risk factors [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the crude oil 2510 variety, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", the intraday view is "volatile and slightly weak", and the reference view is "running weakly". The core logic is the expected increase in supply leading to a volatile and slightly weak trend [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is "volatile and slightly weak", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the reference view is "running weakly". Due to concerns about OPEC+ expanding production capacity, supply pressure has increased, overshadowing geopolitical risks. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed down 1.67% to 483.6 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend on Thursday [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to operate weakly, showing a volatile and weak trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday. The current supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. The sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices on Wednesday night led to the volatile and weak trend of the methanol futures 2601 contract, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Time Cycle and View Summary - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation. The core logic is the sharp decline in coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand situation of methanol [1]. Price and Driving Logic - The methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly lower by 0.38% to 2378 yuan/ton on Wednesday night, and it is difficult for the price to continue rising. The large supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad, the off - season of downstream demand, and the sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices on Wednesday night are the main driving factors for the weak trend [5].