投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 基本面未改善，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均迎来回升，螺纹产量再度回升并至年内高位，供应压力增加。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求有所改善，但下游未见好转，改善持续性存疑。目前来看，供需双增局面下螺纹钢基本面 并未改善，库存增加，产业矛盾持续累积，钢价仍易承压，相对利好则是成本抬升与旺季需求预 期，多空因 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and the intraday trend being volatile and weak. The price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle and View - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with a reference view of weak operation. The core logic is the emergence of long - short divergence and the market being dominated by a weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. Affected by a slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile and stable trend on Thursday night, with the futures price slightly rising 0.38% to 2377 yuan/ton, but continued rebound faces moving - average suppression [5].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 29 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内供应宽松的现实难以撼动，国内油厂开机率仍然维持偏高水平且近几周持续增长，豆粕库 存已近百万吨，部分油厂胀库催提现象持续。豆粕基差虽然小幅修复，仍未摆脱负基差格局。短期在资金 离场的拖累下，豆粕期价调整持续。 品种：棕榈油(P) 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 ...

姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2025 年 8 月 28 日 甲醇 专业研究·创造价值 供需结构乏力 甲醇偏弱运行 核心观点 甲醇：随着我国"反内卷"政策利多被市场消化，国内煤炭期货价格 高位回调，导致甲醇成本支撑显著弱化。同时甲醇供需基本面表现乏力，国 内装置检修结束，复产带来的供应增量凸显，外部货源到港卸货增加，进口 压力骤增。而下游需求尚处在淡季，烯烃消费疲弱，导致港口持续累库。受 此影响，2025 年 8 月，甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现震荡回落的走势，期价自 2500 元/吨一线稳步走低至 2369 元/吨，累计最大跌幅达 5.24%。虽然甲醇期货止 跌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment has significantly improved. Meanwhile, the cost support of polypropylene has weakened as the crude oil futures price lacks upward momentum. Given that domestic petrochemical plants have resumed production after maintenance, the supply pressure of polypropylene has increased, and the downstream demand has failed to meet expectations with a sluggish consumer market. In the context of the strong macro - expectation competing with the weak industrial reality, it is expected that the polypropylene futures will maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Factor - The Fed chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting sent a dovish signal, which was widely interpreted as a clear sign of an interest rate cut after the September FOMC meeting. After his speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 8.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.1%. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has improved the macro - sentiment and boosted the prices of domestic energy and chemical futures to stabilize and strengthen [3]. Cost Factor - Polypropylene's upstream raw materials mainly include coal and crude oil. Although the domestic coal futures price rebounded last Friday night, strengthening the cost support for coal - chemical products, the crude oil futures price lacks the impetus to drive polypropylene prices higher. The geopolitical premium of crude oil has been shrinking due to political efforts to cool down the geopolitical risks in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Also, the oil market's focus has shifted to the situation of supply - demand surplus, weakening the cost support for polypropylene futures [4]. Supply Factor - Last week, as the maintenance devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangdong Petrochemical resumed operation, the loss of polypropylene production continued to decline, leading to a slight increase in overall production. As of the week ending August 24, 2025, the average domestic polypropylene capacity utilization rate was 78.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. The domestic polypropylene production last week was 78.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons (0.41%) and a year - on - year increase of 11.84 tons (17.73%). With the planned restart of Jingbo Polyolefin's double - line this week, the domestic polypropylene production is expected to continue to rise [5]. Demand Factor - In late August, the downstream demand for domestic polypropylene failed to meet expectations, and the consumer market remained sluggish. Non - standard product sales pressure forced enterprises to cut prices to reduce inventory, leading to a weak decline in polypropylene prices. The average operating rates of most domestic polypropylene downstream industries showed an upward trend, except for BOPP and PP pipes, which declined, and modified PP, which remained stable. The BOPP industry's overall orders trended upward, but some enterprises stopped production due to insufficient orders, resulting in a decline in the industry's operating rate. For PP pipes, without policy support, the market trading atmosphere was poor, and the demand was limited, causing the industry's operating rate to decline [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved up to 15,945 yuan/ton, and it slightly rose 0.28% to 15,945 yuan/ton at the close. The 9 - 1 month spread discount narrowed to 985 yuan/ton. With the divergence between long and short in the rubber market, the improvement of macro - expectations competes with the negative industrial factors. It is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and consolidating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,381 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,356 yuan/ton, and it slightly fell 0.42% to 2,373 yuan/ton at the close. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 148 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 on Thursday showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling. The futures price rose to a maximum of 483.6 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 478.4 yuan/barrel, and it slightly fell 0.97% to 481.7 yuan/barrel at the close. As the South American geopolitical factors are digested, crude oil returns to the market dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. During the period, the production schedules of maintenance enterprises basically returned to normal operation, driving the week - on - week recovery of capacity utilization, and enterprises basically maintained normal sales [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. The growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight increase of 4.82% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 8.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. As of August 22, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant increase of 144,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,300 tons compared with 395,800 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.891 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, United States, reached 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 120,209 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the average of 183,170 contracts in July. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 176,893 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the average of 220,076 contracts in July. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly month - on - month, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly month - on - month [13] 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change Compared with the Previous Day | Rise/Fall Compared with the Previous Day | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | 15,945 yuan/ton | - 1,045 yuan/ton | + 185 yuan/ton | - 185 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,265 yuan/ton | 2,373 yuan/ton | - 108 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.6 yuan/barrel | 481.7 yuan/barrel | - 19.1 yuan/barrel | + 2.0 yuan/barrel | - 2.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: There are charts including rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: There are charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: There are charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the report's industry investment rating. Core View of the Report Benefiting from the 90-day extension of the China-US trade tariff negotiations, the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and better-than-expected new car sales in the rubber market's downstream, the domestic rubber futures sector showed a volatile and upward trend in August 2025. The macro environment remains favorable, and the supply-demand structure of the domestic rubber futures market has improved. It is expected that the rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the future, with the performance of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber being stronger than that of synthetic rubber overall [6][7][140]. Summary by Directory 1. Review of the Domestic Rubber Futures Trend in August 2025 In August 2025, the domestic rubber futures sector showed a volatile and upward trend. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract rose from 15,075 yuan/ton to around 15,900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.42%. The standard rubber futures 2510 contract rose from 12,090 yuan/ton to around 12,800 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.87%. The synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract rose from 11,320 yuan/ton to around 12,000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 6.00% [6][11]. 2. Improvement in the Macro Environment and Increasing Expectation of a Fed Rate Cut In August 2025, the overseas macro environment remained optimistic. The short-term China-US tariff risk was temporarily removed. Trump's nomination of Fed officials and the current inflation and employment data in the US indicate that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each this year. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is as high as 91.5% [22][23][24]. 3. Stable Growth of the Domestic Economy in July 2025 In July 2025, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. Although the manufacturing PMI declined slightly, other economic indicators showed positive trends. The total industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 387.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The total import and export volume of goods was 3.9102 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [37][38][39]. 4. Overseas Rubber Producing Areas in the Peak Harvest Season with Rising Supply Pressure Since 2010, the planting area of natural rubber in Southeast Asian countries has generally increased, but the unit yield has declined due to low rubber prices. According to seasonal patterns, the supply pressure will gradually increase from May to November. In June 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 911,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 48,800 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 50,000 tons. It is expected that the global natural rubber production may decrease by about 5% in 2025 [62][63][66]. 5. A Significant Increase in the Premium Spread between Shanghai Rubber, Standard Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber In August 2025, the spread between Shanghai rubber, standard rubber, and synthetic rubber widened steadily. The premium of the Shanghai rubber futures main contract over the synthetic futures main contract increased from 2,925 yuan/ton to 4,035 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 37.95%. It is expected that the spreads between Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber, and between Shanghai rubber and standard rubber may maintain a high premium in the future [93][94]. 6. Mixed Sales in the Overseas Automobile Market in July 2025 In July 2025, the US automobile sales increased year-on-year, with a total of 1.4072 million vehicles sold, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. The European automobile market declined slightly in June, with new car registrations decreasing by 5.1% year-on-year. In July, the Japanese automobile sales decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. Overall, the overseas automobile market sales were mixed in July 2025 [97][98]. 7. A Significant Year-on-Year Increase in Domestic Automobile Production and Sales in July 2025 In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 12%. It is expected that the domestic automobile market will maintain a growth trend in the second half of 2025 [104][105][108]. 8. A Significant Year-on-Year Increase in Domestic Heavy Truck Sales in July 2025 In July 2025, China's heavy truck sales reached about 83,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales were about 622,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 11%. It is expected that the heavy truck sales may exceed 1 million vehicles in 2025. New energy heavy trucks continued to lead the market, and natural gas heavy trucks showed signs of recovery [114][116][117]. 9. A Decline in Domestic Tire Production and a Slight Increase in Natural Rubber Imports In July 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production was 94.364 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The tire exports were 66.65 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to July, China imported a total of 4.709 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The social inventory of natural rubber showed a seasonal upward trend [121][122][125]. 10. Summary Looking ahead to September 2025, the macro environment remains favorable, and the supply-demand structure of the domestic rubber futures market has improved. It is expected that the rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend, with the performance of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber being stronger than that of synthetic rubber overall [140].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, influenced by the increase in supply pressure from OPEC+ capacity expansion, lowered global crude oil demand forecasts, and the cooling of geopolitical risks, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a downward trend. The WTI crude oil futures price dropped from $70.51/barrel to $61.45/barrel, with a maximum cumulative decline of 12.85%; the Brent crude oil futures price decreased from $73.17/barrel to $65.01/barrel, a maximum cumulative decline of 11.15%; the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract fell from 528.4 yuan/barrel to 479 yuan/barrel, a maximum cumulative decline of 9.35% [6]. - The macro - atmosphere is warming up. With the weakening of US non - farm payroll data and the rebound of inflation, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and may do so again in December. Meanwhile, the Sino - US trade tariff negotiation has been postponed by 90 days [6]. - From an industrial perspective, OPEC+ will continue to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and the end of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to a slowdown in inventory depletion and a possible shift to inventory accumulation. The cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to reduce the geopolitical premium of crude oil. Therefore, domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the future [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of Domestic and International Crude Oil Futures Trends in August 2025 - Due to the accelerated expansion of OPEC+ production capacity, the reduction of global crude oil demand forecasts by international energy agencies, and the cooling of geopolitical risks, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a downward trend in August 2025 [12]. 2. Improvement in the Macro - atmosphere and Increased Expectations of Fed Interest Rate Cuts - In August 2025, the overseas macro - level maintained an optimistic atmosphere. Sino - US trade tariff risks were temporarily resolved, and the two sides suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days [19]. - Trump's nomination of "dovish" officials to the Fed increased the possibility of interest rate cuts. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September with a probability of 91.5% [20]. 3. Stable Growth of the Domestic Economy in July 2025 - In July 2025, China's economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. Although the manufacturing PMI declined slightly, economic indicators such as industrial added value, social consumption, and foreign trade showed positive trends [33][34][35]. 4. Accelerated Release of OPEC+ Capacity and Aggravated Supply Surplus - OPEC+ has been accelerating production capacity release since the second quarter of 2025. In August and September, it will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day each month, fully restoring the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut in 2023 [55]. - In July 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that global average crude oil supply will increase by 2.1 million barrels per day this year and may increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026 [56][57]. - The upstream investment in US shale oil is still not prosperous, but policy support may increase future oil and gas output. As of July 18, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms decreased, and the daily average crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels [58]. 5. The Peak Crude Oil Demand Season in the Northern Hemisphere is Coming to an End - The peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere is from June to August. In September, the demand for crude oil will weaken, the refinery operating rate will decline, and inventory accumulation pressure will increase [72]. - In August 2025, the three major global energy institutions released different views on the crude oil market. EIA and IEA lowered their price forecasts and demand growth forecasts, while OPEC was more optimistic about the market in 2026 [73][74][75]. 6. Meeting between US and Russian Presidents and Cooling of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In August 2025, the US and Russian presidents held a meeting, but no agreement was reached. The two sides agreed to continue talks in Moscow. Although the Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, it is expected to cool down in the future, which will reduce the geopolitical premium of crude oil [78][79][81]. 7. Slight Increase in China's Crude Oil Imports in July 2025 - In July 2025, China's crude oil production and processing increased. The import volume of refined oil increased slightly year - on - year, but the cumulative import volume from January to July decreased. It is expected that China's crude oil processing and import volume may be restricted by weak demand [86][88]. 8. Significant Decrease in Non - commercial Net Long Positions of European and American Crude Oil in August 2025 - In August 2025, international crude oil futures prices declined, and the net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly [97]. 9. Summary - In September 2025, the macro - atmosphere will remain warm, but from an industrial perspective, the supply pressure of crude oil will increase, the demand will weaken, and the geopolitical premium will decrease. Therefore, domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [104][105].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2025 年 9 月报 宏观 专业研究·创造价值 关税战趋于缓和，内需有所放缓 核心观点 8 月份，特朗普发动的全球关税战短期告一段落。美国与欧洲、 日本达成协议，美国对日本商品以及欧盟商品均征收 15%的关税， 不过协议还附带有日本及欧盟投资美国以及购买美国商品的条款。 8 月 12 日，中美双方发布《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》， 中美就 24%关税继续暂停 90 天达成共识。对美国而言，虽然通胀数 据表现短期可控，但是加征关税令通胀存在长期上行压力。近期美 国就业数据表现脆弱性，加上特朗普政治施压美联储降息，美债收 益率下行，美联储降息预期上升。对欧洲而言，随着通胀趋缓，欧 洲央行宽松政策有所放缓。不过考虑到关税对欧洲出口需求的冲击 仍存以及未来欧盟在基础设施与国防领域的财政支出将有所扩张， 因此后市欧洲央行仍存降息可能性。对日本而言，近期日本通胀指 标回落较快，考虑到关税冲击日本出口，日本央行加息节奏放缓。 不过日本国债收益率持续上升，随着关税问题逐步落地，未来日本 加息节奏有望延续。 7 月以来国内宏观经济指标边际走弱。7 月制造业 PMI 有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since August, the options underlying assets have shown a significant unilateral upward trend, especially the small and medium - cap indices. The continuous rebound of the stock index is driven by multiple factors such as policy expectations, the booming development of the tech AI industry, and continuous inflow of incremental funds. The mid - to long - term upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue, and the CSI 1000 Index has strong upward momentum. However, in the short term, due to the large increase in some stocks and the need for profit - taking, the stock index needs technical consolidation [3][9][107]. - A bull call spread strategy can be adopted, which involves buying low - strike - price call options and selling the same number of high - strike - price call options. This strategy can achieve positive delta and positive vega. If the CSI 1000 Index rises above the high - strike price, a new bull call spread with different strike prices can be created; if the index corrects, the risk of this strategy is limited [3][108]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Underlying Asset Price Trends - There are 12 listed financial options in China, including 9 ETF options and 3 index options, which are closely related to several major indices. This report mainly analyzes options related to the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [8]. - From August 1 to August 27, 2025, all option underlying assets showed a significant unilateral upward trend, with small and medium - cap indices having the most remarkable increase. The rebound is driven by multiple positive factors, leading to a significant recovery in the risk appetite of the stock market and a comprehensive rebound of the stock index [9]. - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various underlying assets during this period [10]. 3.1.2 Option Trading Volume and Open Interest - Generally, during rapid market movements, the demand for option hedging and speculative trading increases, leading to an increase in option trading volume. Open interest usually decreases periodically as monthly contracts expire [36]. - From August 1 to August 27, 2025, option trading volume recovered due to the unilateral rise of the stock index. The peak open interest in late August increased significantly compared to July. In July, investors' risk preferences were relatively consistent, and the demand for option hedging was weak. In August, the implied volatility of options continued to rise, and the risk - return ratio of selling options increased [36]. 3.2 Option Analysis Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicator - The Put - Call - Ratio (PCR) is used to measure the market's long - short sentiment. The trading volume PCR reflects sudden changes in investors' sentiment, while the open interest PCR reflects the sentiment of long - and short - side investors. The open interest PCR is generally positively correlated with market sentiment [55]. - In August, the open interest PCR of each option variety showed a unilateral upward trend and then declined at the end of the month, which is consistent with the trend of the underlying asset prices. Currently, the open interest PCR has declined from its high but remains at a relatively high historical quantile, indicating that the current market sentiment is still optimistic [55]. 3.2.2 Volatility Indicator - Volatility is a key factor in option pricing and trading. Implied volatility can be used as a reference for the overall volatility level. The relative level of implied volatility reflects investors' expectations of future volatility [76]. - As of August 27, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of each option variety has continued to rise since August and is currently at a relatively high historical quantile. Due to the inflow of incremental funds and the increasing willingness of profit - taking, the implied volatility is expected to remain at a relatively high level [77][79]. 3.3 Underlying Asset Trend Analysis - Since July, the continuous rebound of the stock index is driven by multiple positive factors such as policy expectations, the booming development of the tech AI industry, and continuous inflow of incremental funds [101]. - Consumption - promotion policies are the main line of this year's macro - policies. The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods replacement has driven the growth of related commodity sales. Future consumption is expected to continue to drive economic demand, which will boost the performance recovery expectations of listed companies [101][103]. - Anti - involution policies are the focus of policies in the second half of this year. These policies can optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the moderate recovery of price indices, and improve corporate profit expectations and market confidence [104]. - The CSI 1000 Index is beneficial from the booming development of the tech AI industry. Its constituent stocks are mainly small and medium - sized enterprises, which have growth potential. The development of the tech AI industry and relevant policies have provided good opportunities for the performance growth of these enterprises [105]. - The continuous inflow of incremental funds into the stock market has promoted the valuation repair of stocks. The current financial data shows that the risk appetite of the stock market is rising, and there is potential for more funds to enter the stock market [106]. 3.4 Option Portfolio Views - It is expected that the stock index will mainly consolidate in the short term and show an upward trend in the medium - to long - term. Currently, the implied volatility of options is at a relatively high quantile [108]. - A bull call spread strategy can be adopted. This strategy can obtain positive delta and positive vega. If the CSI 1000 Index rises above the high - strike price, a new bull call spread can be created; if the index corrects, the risk of this strategy is limited [108]. 3.5 Summary - Since August, the option underlying assets have shown a significant unilateral upward trend, especially the small and medium - cap indices. The mid - to long - term upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue, but in the short term, the stock index needs technical consolidation [109]. - A bull call spread strategy can be adopted to manage risks and potentially profit from the market [109].