Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are running stably. The production of plate mills is weakly stable, with the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreasing by 0.50 million tons week-on-week, indicating a slight contraction in supply. Considering the approaching major events and potential production restrictions, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the short term. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils is also weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 0.55 million tons week-on-week, and the high-frequency trading performance is weak. Although the downstream cold-rolled production remains high and stable, indicating some demand resilience, the low domestic and foreign price difference still requires caution regarding potential foreign demand concerns. Overall, the demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, and the short-term production restrictions continue to have an impact. The supply-demand pattern is acceptable, providing support for prices. However, the concerns about foreign demand remain, and the supply contraction is unlikely to be sustained. The fundamental situation has not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weak. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 322.79 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.50 million tons and a month-on-month change of 19.69 million tons. The same-period value is 324.74 million tons, with a year-on-year change of -0.50 million tons [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.02%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.23 percentage points, a month-on-month change of -0.22 percentage points, and the same-period value is 82.96% [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 320.00 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.55 million tons and a month-on-month change of 15.27 million tons [2]. - The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 83.15 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.89 million tons and a month-on-month change of 3.14 million tons [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 365.46 million tons, with a decrease of 76.35 million tons compared to the previous period [2]. - The in-plant inventory is 79.68 million tons, with a decrease of 16.07 million tons compared to the previous period [2]. - The social inventory is 285.78 million tons, with a decrease of 60.28 million tons compared to the previous period [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, and it is expected to operate weakly [1]. - Due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. The bearish fundamentals are dominant, and the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Summary | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | View Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Crude oil 2510 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Oscillation with a weak bias | Weak operation | There are differences between bulls and bears, and crude oil oscillates weakly [1] | 3.2 Driving Logic of Main Variety Price Quotes - Energy and Chemical Sector of Commodity Futures - **Core Logic**: The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. The demand growth rate has declined, and the crude oil inventory will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. The bearish fundamentals are dominant after the digestion of macro - bullish expectations [5]. - **Market Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained a weakly bullish oscillating trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.14% to 486.6 yuan/barrel, but the rebound was suppressed [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract will maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products on August 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing their basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads over a period from August 22 to August 28, 2025. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis**: On August 28, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 109.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 108.4 yuan/ton on August 27, - 105.4 yuan/ton on August 26, - 97.4 yuan/ton on August 25 and August 22 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 28 [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis**: For fuel oil, the basis on August 28 was 14.00 yuan/ton; for INE crude oil, it was 52.47 yuan/ton on August 28. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt and other data are also presented for different dates [6]. - **Price Ratios**: The price ratios of different energy commodities on different dates are provided, such as 11.95, 28.31, etc. [6]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 22 to August 28 are given. For example, the basis of rubber was - 1045 yuan/ton on August 28 [8]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are presented. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was 85 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. from August 22 to August 28 are shown. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2418 yuan/ton on August 28 [10]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 22 to August 28 are provided. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 was 151.0 yuan/ton on August 28 [20]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 inter - period spreads of螺纹钢, iron ore, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of螺纹钢 was 41.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, etc. from August 22 to August 28 are shown. For example, the 螺/矿 ratio was 3.99 on August 28 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 22 to August 28 are given. For example, the basis of copper was 210 yuan/ton on August 28 [27]. London Market - **LME Premiums and Discounts**: The LME premiums and discounts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 28 are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (82.79) [35]. - **Shanghai - London Ratios**: The Shanghai - London ratios of these metals on August 28 are provided, such as 8.06 for copper [35]. - **CIF and Domestic Spot Prices**: The CIF and domestic spot prices of these metals on August 28 are given, along with the import profit and loss data [35]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from August 22 to August 28 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 133 yuan/ton on August 28 [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads of various agricultural products are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No.1 was 48 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as 豆一/玉米, 豆油/豆粕, etc. from August 22 to August 28 are given. For example, the 豆一/玉米 ratio was 1.81 on August 28 [40]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 22 to August 28 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 3.38 on August 28 [52]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of the next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 7.8 [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7]. Summary by Relevant Contents Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.50% to 15,800 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. The inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export growth has slowed down. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals prevail [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.59% to 11,820 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure has increased slightly. The inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export growth has slowed down. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals prevail [7].

Report Overview - The report is the precious metals and non - ferrous metals morning report of Baocheng Futures on August 29, 2025, covering gold and copper [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - For gold, short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, with an intraday view of being volatile and bullish. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the rising expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable for the gold price, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure in the volatile range [1] - For copper, short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, with an intraday view of being volatile and bullish. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the domestic and foreign macro - environment has cooled, and as the domestic peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: After the Asian session yesterday, the gold price continued to rise. New York gold reached above $3450, London gold reached above $3400, and Shanghai gold reached above 785 yuan [3] - **Driving Factors**: Nvidia's third - quarter guidance was not bright, and its trend was weakening, which may give gold a safe - haven premium. Since Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend. The relatively small increase of Shanghai gold is largely due to the appreciation of the RMB and the expectation of continuous appreciation [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure of London gold [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: The copper price oscillated and stabilized yesterday, and maintained a volatile and bullish trend at night, approaching the 79,000 - yuan mark [5] - **Driving Factors**: The decline in copper price may be due to the short - term decline in overseas risk appetite, and the entire non - ferrous metal sector generally fell after the Asian session yesterday. On the industrial side, as the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches in China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening [5] - **Market Sentiment**: The copper position has decreased significantly compared with July, indicating a significant decrease in capital attention, and the volatility may continue to be at a low level. Short - term attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For IH2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "oscillation with a bullish bias", and the overall view is "rise" due to strong support from favorable policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "oscillation with a bullish bias", the medium - term view is "rise", and the overall reference view is "rise". The stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term and rise in the medium and long term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: rise; intraday: oscillation with a bullish bias; view reference: rise; core logic: favorable policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index showed an N - shaped trend and closed up after oscillating throughout the day. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.0009 trillion yuan, a decrease of 196.9 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - Due to large gains in some stocks, the dynamic price - to - earnings ratios of each stock index are above the 80th percentile in the past 5 years, so there is a need for technical adjustment. However, the trading volume is still high, indicating an optimistic market sentiment [5]. - The rebound momentum of the stock index comes from favorable policy expectations and loose liquidity in the capital market. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, and the recent decline in market interest rates has increased the willingness to allocate funds to the stock market [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the overall trend of treasury bond futures is expected to be range - bound. In the short - term, both upward and downward movements are limited, with a forecast of consolidation. The main reasons are the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rise in the stock market's risk appetite, which restricts the rebound momentum of treasury bond futures. However, the anchor effect of policy interest rates limits the upward movement of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "sideways with a weak bias", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rise in the stock market's risk appetite [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for varieties TL, T, TF, and TS is "sideways with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly declined yesterday. With the monetary policy emphasizing implementation and detailed measures in the second half of this year and focusing on structural easing, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased. The rise in the stock market's risk appetite attracts funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. However, due to the anchor effect of policy interest rates, the upward movement of market interest rates is restricted, and treasury bond futures still have strong support [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved, with demand weakening and supply remaining stable, and the valuation is moderately high with limited upward driving force [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillatory, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable and the ore price will continue to oscillate [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is continuously declining. Short - term production restrictions still have an impact, and the positive effect is weakening. Domestic port arrivals have decreased, but overseas miners' shipments remain high. According to shipping schedules, the arrival of Australian and Brazilian ores is expected to increase. Overseas ore supply is high, but domestic ore production is restricted, and overall ore supply is stable. Market sentiment has improved, and the ore price has strengthened again, but the fundamentals have not improved [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 获取每日 期货观点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严 谨 管 理 开 拓 进 取 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：随着淡季临近，电煤需求将进入季节性下滑的阶段，而非电端并无实质性利好出现， 动力煤需求侧不确定性有限，市场博弈焦点仍在于供应端。特别是在当前"反内卷 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - For both Jiao Coal (JM) and Coke (J), the short - term, medium - term, and overall reference views are "oscillation". The intraday view is "oscillation weakening", and the medium - term view is "oscillation strengthening" [1][5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Jiao Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it shows an oscillatory trend. The intraday view is oscillatory weakening, and the medium - term view is oscillatory strengthening [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of Jiao Coal have no obvious changes. Super - production verification and heavy rainfall in Shanxi still suppress supply. Before the 9.3 parade, coking plants and steel mills are affected by environmental protection restrictions, so short - term demand also faces pressure. Although the impact of the "anti - involution" policy has been released, the coal industry will still respond to relevant policies, which may bring new positive news. Currently, long and short factors are intertwined, and the futures main contract oscillates within a range. Considering the "anti - involution" impact, the callback space may be limited [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it shows an oscillatory trend. The intraday view is oscillatory weakening, and the medium - term view is oscillatory strengthening [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The eighth round of price increase for Coke has been blocked, and the game between upstream and downstream of the black industry chain has intensified, with the spot market temporarily stable. In the futures market, with the fermentation of the "anti - involution" theme, the market has entered the verification stage from the strong cost - side expectation. The long - short game has become more intense. Considering that the coal industry may further cooperate with the "anti - involution" policy, the cost - side news is still expected to form a positive support. After a short - term correction, Coke may show a characteristic of being easy to rise and difficult to fall in the long - term [6].