1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and declined. The total market trading volume of the stock market was 1.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 46.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The recent contraction in stock market trading volume is mainly due to the lack of market driving forces and the decline in the enthusiasm of capital trading [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference continued to emphasize a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. However, the aggregate policy did not exceed expectations, shifting from "extraordinary counter - cyclical" to "both counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical." This means that the aggregate policy will still support the economy in 2026, but will also focus more on structural adjustment, with policy efforts tilting towards domestic - cycle consumption and technology [3]. - Since the pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target is small, there is insufficient motivation for policy intensification this year. Policy efforts are expected to start in the first quarter of next year, and the short - term impetus from policy benefits is insufficient. The stock indices need to consolidate through fluctuations [3]. - At present, the stock indices are still within the fluctuation range. However, as the expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment in the future, the market risk appetite will gradually recover. In general, the stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. - For options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread or ratio spread with a moderately bullish approach can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On December 16, 2025, 50ETF fell 0.96% to 3.103; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.01% to 4.620; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.08% to 4.690; the CSI 300 Index fell 1.20% to 4497.55; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.74% to 7181.62; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.52% to 7.126; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.40% to 2.812; the ChiNext ETF fell 1.92% to 3.060; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 1.17% to 3.367; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.08% to 2954.79; the STAR 50ETF fell 2.02% to 1.36; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.86% to 1.32 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 133.64 (previous day: 109.24), and the open - interest PCR was 90.66 (previous day: 99.95) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in December 2025 was 11.63%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 10.66% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes a series of charts for different types of options, such as the trend charts, volatility charts, trading volume PCR charts, open - interest PCR charts, implied volatility curve charts, and at - the - money implied volatility charts for different terms of SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, and other options [9][20][33]. These charts visually present the performance and changes of option - related indicators over time.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡企稳，录得 0.55%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 低供应格局给予钢价支撑，但需求表现同样疲弱，基本面并无好转，淡 季钢价继续承压运行，相对利好则是估值偏低与政策预期，预期现实博 弈下钢价延续低位震荡运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.68%日涨幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均在走弱，产业矛盾缓解有限，价格继续承压运行， 相对利好 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On December 16, the main coke contract closed at 1,514.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.34%. The position volume of the main contract was 19,800 lots, with a difference of -2,119 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. Recently, the supply and demand of coke both decreased, and the reduction in demand was more significant, resulting in a weak fundamental situation. Without direct positive news from domestic important meetings in December, the market follows the fundamental logic. Affected by both cost and demand pressures, the coke futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [5][35]. - **Coking Coal**: On December 16, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,067.5 points, with an intraday increase of 1.33%. The position volume of the main contract was 510,400 lots, with a difference of +16,390 lots from the previous trading day. The latest price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 3.0% week-on-week. Recently, the coking coal production decreased slightly, while the import of Mongolian coal increased significantly, providing limited support on the supply side. Coupled with the weakening of downstream coke production, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. However, with the market's reaction to the supply - side pressure, the long - short game in the coking coal futures has increased, and the price has started to fluctuate at a low level [6][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - **Indonesia's Coal Export Tax**: Indonesia plans to impose a 1% - 5% export tax on coal from 2026 to increase national fiscal revenue and optimize the tax structure without weakening its international competitiveness in coal [8]. - **Stable Coking Coal Price in Linfen Anze**: On December 16, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1,500 yuan/ton. Due to the significant increase in the auction price of similar coal in the surrounding area and the reduction in regional supply, some coal washing enterprises raised their quotes to 1,600 yuan/ton, but no transactions were made [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Change Compared to the Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -5.99% | -7.10% | -9.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,430 yuan/ton | -0.69% | -1.38% | -11.73% | -12.27% | | Coking Coal (Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port) | 1,125 yuan/ton | -3.02% | -12.11% | -4.66% | -8.91% | | Coking Coal (Australian - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.68% | -6.37% | -1.34% | -4.55% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,650 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -3.51% | 7.84% | -2.37% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position Volume | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,514.5 | 1.34% | 1,532.0 | 1,475.0 | 16,790 | -3,806 | 19,821 | -2,119 | | Coking Coal | | 1,067.5 | 1.33% | 1,077.0 | 1,037.5 | 1,163,886 | -328,578 | 510,423 | 16,390 | [13] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization rate) [28][30][34]. Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is the same as the core views, with coke futures expected to fluctuate at a low level due to cost and demand pressures, and coking coal futures showing increased long - short game and low - level fluctuations [35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂震荡企稳 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 100600 元/吨，较前日 下跌 460 元/吨（-0.46%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 95910 元/吨，较前日上涨 0.78%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-5030 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 860 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com （仅供参考，不构 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals [1][2] - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [5] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Copper - Today, copper prices continued to decline with reduced positions, dropping nearly 2,000 yuan/ton from last night's high. - On the macro level, market risk appetite and liquidity decreased, pressuring copper prices. - On the industrial level, as copper prices fell, downstream industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased, supporting copper prices. - The game between long and short positions intensified, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close positions. Copper prices showed a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, and low LME inventories provided strong support. - Technically, continuously monitor the support of the 10 - day moving average [6]. Aluminum - Today, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with continuously decreasing positions. - On the macro level, the non - ferrous sector declined across the board, but aluminum prices were relatively resilient. - On the industrial level, the basis and monthly spread remained weak, and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper provided some support. - Technically, continuously monitor the support of the 40 - day moving average [7]. Nickel - Last night, nickel prices plunged with increased positions and maintained a weak trend today. The main contract price fell below 112,000 yuan, hitting a new low for the year. - On the macro level, the non - ferrous sector weakened, and nickel's weakness was more obvious. - On the industrial level, as nickel prices weakened, the spot premium continued to strengthen, but the monthly spread showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - Technically, nickel prices declined with increased positions, breaking through the annual low, indicating strong downward momentum [8]. Industry Dynamics Copper - After the delivery, copper prices declined, and downstream industries had some rigid - demand replenishment. However, due to the accumulation of finished product inventory in the processing sector and downstream industries' wait - and - see attitude towards copper prices, market activity had not significantly recovered, and the spot premium was at a low level [10]. Nickel - On December 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 111,700 - 117,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 114,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 5,500 - 5,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 400 yuan/ton [11]. Relevant Charts Copper - Figures include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14][18][19] Aluminum - Figures include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28][30][32][34] Nickel - Figures include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and LME nickel price trend [36][38][40][43][45][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 16, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from December 9 to December 15, 2025 shows that the basis on December 15 was - 64.4 yuan/ton, gradually decreasing from - 32.4 yuan/ton on December 9 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 15 was 55.24 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: Inter - month spreads and inter - commodity spreads data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For instance, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of LLDPE is 36 yuan/ton, and on December 15, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2270 yuan/ton [9]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of rebar on December 15 was 176.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - month spreads and inter - commodity spreads data are also provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar is - 15.0 yuan/ton, and on December 15, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 407 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper on December 15 was - 180 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals on December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (4.39), and the import loss was (1202.68) yuan/ton [33]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 15 was - 110 yuan/ton [42]. - Inter - month spreads data for multiple agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 is 38 yuan/ton. - Inter - commodity spreads data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal are provided. On December 15, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.85 [42]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 15 was 6.46 [53]. - Inter - month spreads data for the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter of the above - mentioned stock indices are given. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 160 [53].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Trend and View**: The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. - **Driving Logic**: After the previous positive factors were digested, due to the increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures rebound was blocked and entered a correction. Although the port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they remain at a high level. Downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and the olefin disk profit is weakening. On Monday night, the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空分歧，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 12 月 12 日当周 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹供需格局弱稳运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，供应降至低位，给予钢价支撑，但减产持续性待 跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现不佳，高频指标低位弱势运行，且下游行业未见好转，后续仍将 季节性走弱，易拖累钢价。目前来看，低供应格局给予钢价支撑，但需求表现同样疲弱，基本面并 无好转，淡季钢 ...

宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-16 品种晨会纪要 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...