Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Coke: The eighth round of coke price increase has been blocked, and the game between upstream and downstream of the black industry chain has intensified, with the spot market temporarily stable. In the futures market, as the "anti-involution" theme has gradually fermented, the market has shifted from the strong cost-side expectation of "shrinking coking coal supply supporting the rise of coke" to the actual verification stage, and the long-short game has become increasingly fierce. Considering that the coal industry may further cooperate with "anti-involution" to introduce relevant policies and measures, the cost-side news is still expected to form a positive support. After a short-term correction, coke may show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall in the medium and long term [3][30]. - Coking coal: The fundamentals of coking coal have not changed significantly. Overproduction inspections and heavy rainfall in Shanxi still have a certain suppression on supply. However, before the September 3rd parade, coking plants and steel mills are affected by environmental protection restrictions, and coking coal demand also faces certain pressure in the short term. In addition, although the impact of the "anti-involution" policy has been released stage by stage, the coal industry will still actively respond to relevant policies, which is expected to bring new positive news. At present, the long and short factors of coking coal are intertwined, market divergence has increased, and the futures main contract is oscillating within a range. Considering the impact of anti-involution, the callback space of this round of coking coal may be relatively limited [3][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - The "third-in-command" of the Federal Reserve said that the Fed may cut interest rates soon, and the independence of the central bank is very important. Market generally expects that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will restart interest rate cuts in September this year, and the current federal funds rate range is 4.25% - 4.50% [5]. - On August 28th, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex-factory price of low-sulfur main coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,470 yuan/ton including tax in cash [6]. 2. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year-on-Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi-first-class flat price) | 1,570 | +3.29% | +10.56% | -7.10% | -7.10% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi-first-class ex-warehouse price) | 1,490 | +1.36% | +6.43% | -8.02% | -14.37% | | Coking coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1,180 | -0.84% | +2.61% | 0.00% | -16.90% | | Coking coal (Jingtang Port Australian coal) | 1,580 | +3.27% | +6.04% | +6.04% | -7.60% | | Coking coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi coal) | 1,630 | 0.00% | -1.21% | +6.54% | -5.78% | [7] 3. Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,672.5 | -0.51 | 1,678.5 | 1,634.0 | 27,362 | 2,821 | 41,701 | 1,330 | | Coking coal | | 1,175.0 | 0.90 | 1,175.5 | 1,133.0 | 1,446,978 | -151,344 | 741,087 | 16,244 | [11] 4. Related Charts - Coke inventory: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, and 247 steel mill coking plants over the years [12][13][15]. - Coking coal inventory: Charts show the inventory data of mine-mouth coking coal, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel mills over the years [16][19][21]. - Other charts: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [21][24][28]. 5. Future Outlook - Coke: Similar to the core view, the eighth round of price increase is blocked, and after a short-term correction, it may be easy to rise and hard to fall in the medium and long term [30]. - Coking coal: The fundamentals remain unchanged, with supply and demand under certain pressure, and the callback space may be limited considering the anti-involution impact [30].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: The night before, SHFE copper opened lower and broke through the 79,000 mark. During the day, the copper price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the trading volume changed little. The decline in copper price may be due to the short - term decrease in overseas risk appetite, which led to a general decline in the non - ferrous sector after the Asian session yesterday. The social inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market increased slightly on Thursday. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 mark [4]. - **沪铝**: SHFE aluminum opened lower last night, then fluctuated and stabilized, and rebounded today with a slight decrease in trading volume. Overseas market risk appetite declined, causing a general decline in the non - ferrous sector. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly on Thursday. Technically, the aluminum price faces technical pressure at the previous high [5]. - **沪镍**: Last night, the nickel price opened low, continued to decline, and then stabilized. Today, it maintained a volatile trend with a slight decrease in trading volume. Overseas market risk appetite declined, causing a general decline in the non - ferrous sector. The oversupply of nickel elements continued to put pressure on the futures price, and it is expected to maintain a volatile operation [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 28, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 127,900 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons compared with the 21st and an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the 25th [8]. - **Aluminum**: Starting from the settlement after the close on August 28, 2025 (Thursday), the trading margin ratio and the daily price limit range of the cast aluminum alloy futures contract were adjusted. The daily price limit range was adjusted to 5%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions was adjusted to 6%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions was adjusted to 7% [9]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,400 - 123,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,100 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper注销仓单比例, month - to - month spread of SHFE copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, month - to - month spread of aluminum, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [22][24][26]. - **Nickel**: There are charts on nickel basis, LME nickel注销仓单比例, LME nickel price trend, month - to - month spread of SHFE nickel, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38].

专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 8 月 动力煤月报 姓名：涂伟华 强现实弱预期，动力煤涨势放缓 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 核心观点 8 月，国内煤价延续强势运行，截至 8 月 19 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力 煤报价突破 700 元关口，月内累计上涨 48 元/吨。 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以 勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地 出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地 反映了本人的研究观点。本人不 会因本报告中的具体推荐意见 或观点而直接或间接接收到任 何形式的报酬。 动力煤 |月报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 供应端，7 月全国原煤产量 3.8 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%；其中山西 7 月 产量 1.07 亿吨，同比下降 5.3%；内蒙 7 月产量 1.00 亿吨，同比下降 4.2%； 新疆 7 月产量 0.37 亿吨，同比下降 13.8%。进口方面，7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On August 28, 2025, all stock indices showed an N-shaped trend and closed higher after oscillating throughout the day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.0009 trillion yuan, a decrease of 196.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to the significant gains of some stocks, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of all stock indices were at the 80% quantile level in the past five years, and the willingness of profit-taking funds to take profits increased. Therefore, the stock indices had a need for technical adjustment. However, the trading volume of the stock market remained at a high level, indicating that the overall market sentiment was still optimistic. The rebound momentum of the stock indices mainly came from the positive policy expectations and the loose liquidity in the capital market. The anti-involution policy and the consumption-promotion policy promoted the optimization of the supply-demand structure from both the supply and demand sides, promoted a moderate recovery of the price index, and promoted the repair of corporate profits. Recently, the market interest rate has declined, the liquidity has been loose, and the willingness of funds to allocate to the stock market has increased. The significant increase in the margin trading balance and the obvious year-on-year increase in non-bank deposits reflected the signs of funds entering the market. In general, the stock indices will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term and still rise in the medium and long term. Currently, the implied volatility of options continues to rise. Considering the long-term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads to moderately bullish. [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - On August 28, 2025, the 50ETF rose 1.44% to close at 3.095; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.88% to close at 4.559; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.95% to close at 4.708; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.77% to close at 4463.78; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.51% to close at 7447.11; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 2.17% to close at 7.104; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 2.23% to close at 2.838; the ChiNext ETF rose 4.08% to close at 2.806; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 2.60% to close at 3.319; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.45% to close at 2960.73; the STAR 50ETF rose 7.18% to close at 1.43; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 7.51% to close at 1.40. [5] - The trading volume PCR and holding volume PCR of various options on August 28, 2025, and the comparison with the previous trading day are provided in detail. For example, the trading volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF option was 79.99, compared with 73.04 on the previous trading day; the holding volume PCR was 91.38, compared with 90.15 on the previous trading day. [6] - The implied volatility of the at-the-money options in September 2025 and the 30-day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For example, the implied volatility of the at-the-money options of the SSE 50ETF option in September 2025 was 22.21%, and the 30-day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 13.66%. [7][8] 2 Related Charts - Multiple charts are presented for different types of options, including the trend of the underlying asset, option volatility, trading volume PCR, holding volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and at-the-money implied volatility of different tenors. For example, for the SSE 50ETF option, there are charts such as the SSE 50ETF trend, SSE 50ETF option volatility, SSE 50ETF option trading volume PCR, etc. [9][10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Since August, Treasury bond futures have been fluctuating and declining. On one hand, the domestic macro - economy shows resilience, and the policy statement on comprehensive interest rate cuts is weak. On the other hand, the risk appetite in the stock market has significantly rebounded, suppressing the demand for purchasing Treasury bonds. Since July, domestic macro - economic indicators have weakened marginally, indicating a persistent problem of insufficient effective domestic demand. The policy side needs to continue to support the demand side, and the moderately loose monetary policy tone remains unchanged. The LPR has remained unchanged in August, for three consecutive months. In the short term, the monetary policy is mainly structurally loose, and the necessity of an interest rate cut has decreased. The central bank's open - market operations are flexible, keeping liquidity within a reasonable and sufficient range. Overall, the upside and downside space for Treasury bond futures is limited, and they are expected to consolidate through fluctuations [4][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Market Review 1.1 Treasury Bond Futures Historical Trends Since August, Treasury bond futures have been fluctuating and declining due to the resilient domestic macro - economy, weak policy statements on comprehensive interest rate cuts, and a significant rebound in stock market risk appetite, which suppresses the demand for Treasury bonds. As of August 27, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.36%, close to the 1.4% policy rate, and the difference between the 10 - year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate is about 44BP, indicating little implied interest rate cut expectation in the market [11][13]. 1.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Trends Due to changes in the central bank's interest rate cut expectations, the monthly spread trends of Treasury bond futures prices have diverged recently. The impact on the inter - period spreads of long - term Treasury bond futures is relatively small, while that on short - term Treasury bond futures is relatively large. The inter - period spread of 2 - year Treasury bond futures has clearly risen and then fallen, mainly because the weakening of interest rate cut expectations has a more significant impact on short - term contracts [15]. 2 Domestic Macro: Domestic Demand has Slowed, and Price Indexes have Stabilized 2.1 Business Climate Index: Manufacturing PMI Weakened in July In July, the PMI dropped to 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.3%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 49.5%, a 0.9 - percentage - point increase; and small - scale enterprises' PMI was 46.4%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease. Among the 5 sub - indexes of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it. The manufacturing PMI is expected to fluctuate narrowly around the boom - bust line in the short term [22][23]. 2.2 Price Indexes: Inflation Stabilized in July In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, up from a 0.1% decline in the previous month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month. With the promotion of consumption - stimulating and anti - involution policies, CPI and PPI are expected to recover moderately [28][29][30]. 2.3 Social Financing and Credit: Credit Data was Weak in July The main contributor to social financing increment is government bonds. In the first seven months, the cumulative social financing increment was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In July, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, 389.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Entity credit decreased by 426.3 billion yuan, 345.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Both residential medium - and long - term loans and short - term loans decreased more year - on - year. Policy support is needed to boost domestic demand [32][33][36]. 3 Monetary Policy: LPR Interest Rates Remained Unchanged in August After the interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut in May, the LPR has remained unchanged for three consecutive months. In the short term, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the policy is mainly a structural credit policy, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. The time for an interest rate cut is expected to be in the fourth quarter [45][46]. 4 Central Bank's Open - Market Operations As of the 28th of August, the central bank injected 6266.7 billion yuan and withdrew 6571.8 billion yuan in open - market operations, with a net withdrawal of 305.1 billion yuan. The central bank's open - market operations are flexible, keeping market liquidity within a reasonable and sufficient range [52]. 5 Summary Since August, Treasury bond futures have been fluctuating and declining. The domestic macro - economy shows resilience, and the necessity of an interest rate cut has decreased in the short term. The central bank's open - market operations are flexible. Overall, the upside and downside space for Treasury bond futures is limited, and they are expected to consolidate through fluctuations [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP and M1 showing positive changes while others like manufacturing PMI and fixed - asset investment have declined [1]. - In the commodity market, industrial enterprises' profit recovery is evident, especially in high - tech manufacturing, and various policies are expected to boost service consumption [2][3]. - The bond market has complex movements with different trends in yields of different types of bonds, and the stock market experiences significant fluctuations [21][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter but higher than the same period last year. Manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, showing a decline compared to the previous month [1]. - M1 in July 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.6%, a significant increase from the previous month and a sharp turnaround from the negative growth last year [1]. Commodity Investment Reference - From January to July, the total profit of national large - scale industrial enterprises was 4.02035 trillion yuan, and business revenue increased by 2.3% year - on - year. In July, the profit of high - tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% [2]. - From January to July, China completed 1.95 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment, with 306.1 billion yuan in July [2]. - Next month, policies to expand service consumption will be introduced, and policies to promote service exports will be publicly released soon [3]. Financial News Compilation - On August 27, the central bank conducted 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan [14]. - In July, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, but the decline narrowed. The new kinetic energy index of China's economy in 2024 increased by 14.2% [15]. - The trade volume between China and SCO member states reached a record high in 2024, about 512.4 billion US dollars, a 2.7% increase from the previous year [16]. Bond Market Summary - Bank - to - bank major interest - rate bond yields showed mixed trends, and treasury bond futures rose across the board. Most of the Vanke bonds and Shenzhen Metro Group bonds declined [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 2.82%. The yields of US bonds collectively declined, and the yields of European bonds showed mixed trends [22][24][25]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1622 on August 27, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day. The US dollar index fell 0.04% [27]. Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the REITs market has reached an inflection point and is expected to reach a new high in the fourth quarter [28]. - CICC points out that the Hong Kong stock market underperformed the A - share market in July due to liquidity, fundamentals, and valuation factors, but may be supported by expected Fed rate cuts [28]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income suggests that the absolute value of credit bonds is gradually emerging, and a dumbbell - shaped strategy can be considered [29]. Stock Market Highlights - A - share major indices fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.76%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.27% [32]. - In the first seven months of this year, Hong Kong maintained its global leadership in the new - stock market, with 51 IPOs and a sharp increase in fundraising [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The domestic Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures markets are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term, with bearish factors dominating [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Trends**: In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile; in the medium - term, it is expected to be volatile; intraday, it is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The market is mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic production areas are also increasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. At the same time, the inventory of the domestic tire industry has decreased, the operating load has dropped, and export growth has slowed down. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures closed down 0.38% to 15,840 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Trends**: In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile; in the medium - term, it is expected to be volatile; intraday, it is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The market is mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has seen a decline in inventory, a decrease in operating load, and a slowdown in export growth. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures closed down 0.80% to 11,765 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to operate weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively [1][5] - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. With large supply pressure and off - season demand, the price center is likely to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Trends - On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weakly oscillatory trend, with the futures price closing down 0.92% to 2361 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend on Thursday [5] Market Driving Factors - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand structure [5] - The decline of domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors contribute to the weak trend of methanol futures [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data for multiple futures varieties on August 28, 2025, including power coal, energy - chemical products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, with data on basis, spreads between different contract months, and price ratios between different varieties [1][5][22][28][41][53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for power coal from August 21 to August 27, 2025 is presented, with the basis on August 27 being - 108.4 yuan/ton, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous days. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0.0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from August 21 to August 27, 2025 are provided, along with the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt. For example, on August 27, the basis of INE crude oil is 6.20 yuan/ton, and the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1412 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 21 to August 27, 2025 are given. For instance, on August 27, the basis of rubber is - 860 yuan/ton [9]. - Spread data for different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber is 75 yuan/ton [11]. - Price ratio data for different chemical products (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc.) from August 21 to August 27, 2025 are shown. For example, on August 27, the LLDPE - PVC price ratio is 2399 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: Basis data for螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 21 to August 27, 2025 are provided. For example, on August 27, the basis of螺纹钢 is 169.0 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Spread**: Spread data for different contract months (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of螺纹钢, iron ore, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of螺纹钢 is 41.0 yuan/ton [21]. - **Price Ratio**: Price ratio data for different black metal products (螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, etc.) from August 21 to August 27, 2025 are shown. For example, on August 27, the螺/矿 price ratio is 4.01 [21]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. from August 21 to August 27, 2025 are provided. For example, on August 27, the basis of copper is 280 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market**: LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London price ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, etc. on August 27, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper is (89.93), and the Shanghai - London price ratio is 8.06 [36]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data for soybean No.1, soybean No.2, etc. from August 21 to August 27, 2025 are given. For example, on August 27, the basis of soybean No.1 is 125 yuan/ton [42]. - **Spread**: Spread data for different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No.1 is 46 yuan/ton [42]. - **Price Ratio**: Price ratio data for different agricultural products (豆一/玉米, 豆二/玉米, etc.) from August 21 to August 27, 2025 are shown. For example, on August 27, the 豆一/玉米 price ratio is 1.83 [42]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 21 to August 27, 2025 are provided. For example, on August 27, the basis of CSI 300 is 2.13 [54]. - **Spread**: Spread data for different contract months (次月 - 当月, 次季 - 当季) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. are presented. For example, the 次月 - 当月 spread of CSI 300 is - 21.4 [56].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to be dominated by bearish factors, with the 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply surplus next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, despite an upward adjustment of global crude oil demand data for this year and next [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The 2510 contract of crude oil is expected to be weakly volatile [1][5]. Driving Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report, stating that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, especially with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the fading of macro - bullish expectations, the bearish fundamentals prevail [5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures maintained a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price closing down 1.01% to 481.5 yuan per barrel [5].