Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term and mid - term views of gold are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The short - term and mid - term views of copper are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and strengthening", and the reference view is also "wait - and - see" [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Yesterday's night session saw the gold price hit bottom and rebound, while the US dollar index rose and then fell. Since Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend. Technically, New York gold is approaching the $3450 mark, the upper limit of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3] - **Driving Factors**: The less - than - impressive Q3 guidance of NVIDIA led to a nearly 3% drop after the market, and the short - term decline in the equity market may give gold a safe - haven premium. The increasing expectation of interest rate cuts is beneficial to the gold price. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure of the oscillation range [1][3] Copper - **Price Trend**: After the Asian session yesterday, LME copper continued to decline, and SHFE copper opened lower at night and fell below the 79,000 - yuan mark. The overall non - ferrous metal sector generally declined after the Asian session yesterday [5] - **Driving Factors**: The decline in copper prices may be due to the short - term decline in overseas risk appetite. The domestic stock index fell from a high yesterday, and the strong willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may have cooled the overall commodity atmosphere. Domestically, as the peak season approaches, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 供应支撑趋缓，焦煤高位回调 | | | | | 偏强 | 偏弱 | | | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡运行 | | | | | 偏强 | 偏弱 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal market is expected to shift from a "strong reality" logic to a "weak expectation" logic, with coal prices potentially peaking in the short - term. However, supported by the "anti - involution" policy, the correction space for power coal in September is expected to be limited, and the market will maintain high - level volatility [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Power Coal Spot - **Intraday and Mid - term View**: The reference view is that the market is in a state of oscillation [5] - **Core Logic**: As the off - season approaches, thermal coal demand will enter a seasonal decline phase, and there is no substantial positive news on the non - power end. The focus of market gaming lies in the supply side. Under the "anti - involution" policy, although the actual scale of production capacity withdrawal needs verification, market expectations have improved. There may be further policy measures from industry associations and coal enterprises, and the supply - side news is expected to form positive support [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - All three varieties (soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil) are expected to be "weakly volatile" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, according to the reference views [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: The change in Sino - US trade relations affects US soybean export prospects. The pattern of weak reality and strong expectation in the domestic market remains unchanged. Short - term soybean futures prices are highly repetitive at high levels. As market sentiment weakens again, both domestic and foreign soybean futures prices decline, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures prices. Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand also play roles [5][7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The soybean oil market focuses on raw material soybean cost support, US biodiesel policy expectations, and the resolution of domestic inventory pressure. Affected by the weakening of raw material soybean prices, the cost support for soybean oil futures prices weakens. US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory are also influencing factors [6][7][8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: International oil price fluctuations have a continuous spill - over effect on the palm oil market. As the most energy - related oil variety, palm oil futures prices are significantly affected. Although the positive trend of the palm oil industry chain remains unchanged, short - term capital outflows intensify price fluctuations. Factors such as biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand also impact the price [7][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of TL2509 are "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation" due to the decreased possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Although the bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom due to the overall loose market liquidity and the limited upside space of market interest rates, the short - term rebound space is also limited. This is because the monetary policy in the second half of this year emphasizes implementation and is mainly structurally loose, and the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased. Additionally, the rising risk appetite in the stock market has attracted funds away from bonds [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - TL2509 has a short - term and medium - term view of "oscillation", an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", and an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is the decreased possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The previous day, each bond futures oscillated and rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations have turned to net liquidity withdrawal, indicating that the overall market liquidity is still relatively loose. Considering the anchor effect of policy interest rates, the upside space of market interest rates is limited, leading to the bond futures rebounding after hitting the bottom. However, the short - term rebound space is limited because the monetary policy in the second half of this year emphasizes implementation and is mainly structurally loose, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market attracts funds, suppressing the demand for bond purchases [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The supply - demand pattern is stable, but there is a weakening expectation for demand, and the valuation is moderately high with limited upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the stable supply - demand pattern and the high - level volatility of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - On the demand side, steel mills' production is stable, and ore demand is fair, providing support for ore prices. However, there are signs of production restrictions, and steel mills' profits are shrinking, weakening the positive effects. On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have declined, but overseas miners' shipments remain high. The expected arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores are set to increase according to shipping schedules. Although domestic ore production is restricted, overall ore supply is stable. In summary, ore demand is okay but has a weakening expectation, supply is relatively stable, and the valuation is moderately high, resulting in limited upward driving force for ore prices [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are accumulating and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - Due to weak market sentiment, poor supply - demand pattern, and weak demand in the off - season, steel prices are under pressure. However, the recent increase in cost limits the downward space, and it is expected that steel prices will continue the weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and intraday trends are oscillating weakly, the medium - term trend is oscillating. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has weakened, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is poor. Supply has shrunk but the profit per ton is okay with limited production reduction space. Demand continues the seasonal weakness, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and the weak demand restricts steel prices. Although the cost has increased recently, the downward space is limited. Overall, steel prices are expected to continue the weak operation trend [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is upward, and the overall view is upward. Although the stock market had a technical adjustment yesterday due to profit - taking of some funds, the previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose liquidity in the capital market. However, as the stock index has risen continuously, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In general, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IH2509**: Short - term (within a week) is oscillation, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is upward, intraday is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IF, IH, IC, IM**: Yesterday, the stock indexes oscillated and declined. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3197.8 billion yuan, an increase of 488 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The afternoon decline was due to the profit - taking of some stocks that had risen significantly. The previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose capital liquidity. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the gentle recovery of price indexes, and drive a positive cycle. The capital market has loose liquidity, and the willingness to allocate funds to the stock market has increased. However, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - Today, copper prices showed a trend of increasing positions and declining. The macro - level atmosphere cooled, the equity market declined from a high level, and commodities generally weakened. In the industrial sector, market trading sentiment further weakened near the end of the month. With the weakening of the domestic macro - atmosphere and the rebound of the overseas US dollar index, copper prices are under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the 79,000 mark of Shanghai copper [4]. - Last night, Shanghai aluminum significantly increased positions and rose. During the day, the main contract price fluctuated narrowly above 20,800. Although the domestic commodity atmosphere cooled today, aluminum prices showed strength. In the industrial sector, as reported by SMM, with aluminum prices remaining at a high level, the downstream's purchasing fear of high prices is increasing. Technically, aluminum prices face technical pressure at the previous high [5]. - Last night, nickel prices stabilized and rebounded. During the day, they rose first and then fell. The main contract price generally fluctuated above 122,000. The cooling domestic atmosphere has little impact on nickel. In the industrial sector, the trading of nickel ore is fair, and ore prices remain stable. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventories and refined nickel inventories suppresses nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the 122,000 mark [6]. Group 3: Summary of Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Zijin Mining produced 570,000 tons of mined copper and 41 tons of mined gold in the first half of the year [8]. - **Aluminum**: Starting from the settlement on August 28, 2025 (Thursday), the trading margin ratio and daily limit range of cast aluminum alloy futures contracts will be adjusted. The daily limit range will be adjusted to 5%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 6%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 7%. As of August 26, the total daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 32,373 tons, an increase of 405 tons from the previous trading day and 914 tons from last Tuesday (August 19) [9]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel is in the range of 121,700 - 124,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 123,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel is 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [9]. Group 4: Summary of Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][14][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][28][24]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, LME inventory, Shanghai nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and LME nickel trend [34][36][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.48%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season remain poor, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost increase limits the downward space. In the short term, it is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.92%. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are relatively positive factors. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.64%. The demand for iron ore shows certain resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high, with weak upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to July, China completed 394.6 billion person - times of cross - regional population movement, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The traffic fixed - asset investment reached 1.95 trillion yuan. In July, the volume of commercial freight reached 497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the volume of commercial freight reached 33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [6]. - In 2025, the national plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas started renovation. Six regions including Hebei, Liaoning, etc. had a start - up rate of over 90% [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet decreased, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The prices of 61.5% PB powder decreased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained stable. The sea freight, SGX swap, and Platts Index also showed certain changes [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,111 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,349 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 775.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.64%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased [11]. 4. Related Charts - The charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, the production situation of steel mills, etc., including weekly changes, total inventory, and seasonal trends [13][18][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output decreased, but the profit per ton is acceptable, and the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand is at a low level, and the steel price is under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply increased, and the demand showed good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are positive factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [33]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The demand showed certain resilience, but the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [34].