Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For沪镍, the market is expected to run in a weak and volatile manner, facing downward pressure and testing previous lows [2] - For不锈钢, it is also expected to be under weak and volatile pressure, testing the previous low - level support [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.沪镍 - **Fundamentals**: The external market is under pressure with prices dropping significantly. Nickel ore prices are firm, and the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless - steel inventory is rising with an oversupply situation. New nickel production capacity is coming online while some production is being cut. In the short - term, output may decline, but in the long - term, supply remains strong with continuous inventory build - up. The new energy vehicle industry has good production and sales data, but the overall boost to nickel is limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 118,700, and the basis is 1,950, which is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 257,694 (+5,604), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 35,826 (+799), which is bearish [2] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2] 2. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short - term, nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight is stable, nickel iron prices are falling, the cost line continues to decline, and stainless - steel inventory has increased significantly [4] - **Basis**: The average stainless - steel price is 13,437.5, and the basis is 1,022.5, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 69,289 (-1,076), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4] 3. Price Overview - **沪镍**: The main沪镍 contract on November 17 was 116,750, down 330 from November 14. The LME nickel price was 14,675, down 205 from November 14. Spot prices of various nickel products dropped compared to November 14 [12] - **Stainless Steel**: The main stainless - steel contract on November 17 was 12,415, up 35 from November 14. Spot cold - rolled 304*2B stainless - steel prices in major cities remained unchanged from November 14 [12] 4. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,573 tons, with futures inventory of 35,027 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons and 2,393 tons respectively compared to the previous period. On November 17, LME inventory was 257,694 (+5,604), and Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts were 35,826 (+799) [14][15] 5. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 14, the Wuxi inventory was 584,800 tons, the Foshan inventory was 347,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 660,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,400 tons. On November 17, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 69,289 (-1,076) [20][21] 6. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - Red clay nickel ore CIF prices with Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged from November 14 to November 17. Sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained stable. High - nickel wet - ton prices decreased by 3 yuan/nickel point, and low - nickel wet - ton prices remained unchanged [24] 7. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,616, the scrap - steel production cost is 12,877, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,230 [26] 8. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price is converted to 117,540 yuan/ton [29]

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the soda ash industry. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1231 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1175 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 56 yuan, with a change of 0.41%, 0.43%, and 0.00% respectively compared to the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1175 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Supply - The production profit of heavy soda ash is at a historical low, with a profit of - 103.50 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 232 yuan/ton for the East China combined - soda process [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80%, and the weekly output is 73.92 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 41.09 tons, and the output is at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there are large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. Fundamentals - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 100.93% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.91 tons, and the operating rate is 75% [27]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 170.73 tons, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and various growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different institutions have varying forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with some predicting a surplus and others a narrowing deficit [4][8][24] - Recently, the international sugar price has been weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient, with the near - term contracts stronger than the far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 and has fallen back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels in the 05 contract [5][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Reminders - Fundamental data: DATAGRO estimates that the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season will be revised down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August forecast; StoneX predicts a 2.77 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season; ISO estimates a 231,000 - ton supply deficit in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China reached 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales reached 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4] - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5730, with a basis of 272 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5] - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [5] - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5] - Expectations: Recently, the international sugar price has been weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient. The near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 and has fallen back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels in the 05 contract [5][8] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose [6][8] - Bearish factors: An increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, the international sugar price falling to around 14 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import pressure [6][8] - Supply and demand balance sheet: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 season. For example, ISO estimates a narrowing supply deficit, while StoneX, Czarnikow, etc., predict a surplus [4][8][24] - Import and export data: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4][8] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月18日 黄金 1、基本面：三大美股指齐创一个月新低，金价继续回落；美国三大股指全线收跌， 欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.78个基 点报4.137%；美元指数涨0.25%报99.54，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1082； COMEX黄金期货跌1.20%报4045.10美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国10月工业产出、美国8月耐用品订单、美联储官员讲话日本 首相高市早苗将会见日本央行行长植田和男。美股下挫，风险偏好继续降温，金价 继续回落，但跌幅明显收敛。沪金溢价扩大至-1.5元/克震荡，金价回落溢价收敛， 国内情绪降温。美联储委员放鹰打击市场风险偏好，美国政府开门，等待数据验 证，金价继续高位震荡。 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. The fundamental situation is oversupply, with the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing but starting to decline in some areas, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [4][6]. - For LLDPE, the overall fundamental situation is bearish, but the basis and net long position of the main contract are bullish factors [4]. - For PP, the overall fundamental situation is bearish, and the basis is neutral [6]. Detailed Summaries LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the China-US leaders' meeting, some restrictions on Chinese goods were lifted, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply shortage to oversupply, leading to a drop in oil prices. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it has started to decline in some areas, and the demand for other films is mainly based on rigid needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6900 (-20), and the overall fundamental situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 57, with a premium ratio of 0.8%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net long, and the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and the crude oil market turned to oversupply. The peak season for plastic weaving is coming to an end, while the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6460 (-10), and the overall fundamental situation is bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -7, with a premium ratio of -0.1%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the PE production capacity has been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [12]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the PP production capacity has also been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 11.0% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has been relatively low, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated [14]. Market Data - **Spot Market**: The spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6900 (-20), and the spot price of PP delivery products is 6460 (-10) [4][6][8]. - **Futures Market**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts have all declined to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory**: The LLDPE and PP inventories have increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [8].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货小幅收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，个别聚酯工厂有递盘。11月在01贴水72~75附近 商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4590~4640附近。今日主流现货基差在01-73。中性 2、基差：现货4619，01合约基差-73，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.97天，环比减少0.12天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：周一PTA现货基差略走强，贸易商活跃度偏低，聚酯工厂递盘稀少，加工差仍处低位，预计短期内PTA ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures showing a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, and the trading volume shrank. Both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. Overall, it was a volatile trend with shrinking volume. The bulls actively exited the market, and the bears also exited to wait and see. In the short - term, the market may weaken. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and was operating in the weak area. The trend indicator declined, the bullish power decreased, the bearish power increased, and the advantage of the bullish power narrowed. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2512 will fluctuate and decline [2][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, and the consumption was 1.1717 million tons, with a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, and the consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,550, and the basis was +85, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On November 17, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 39,975 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 5,108 tons to 76,861 tons compared with the previous day, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 17 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 17 was 158,852 lots, with a total trading value of 1.78397762 billion yuan, and the open interest was 217,728 lots, a decrease of 8,952 lots [3]. 3.5 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 17 - The spot TC of zinc concentrate was 2,600 - 1,000 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC of imported zinc concentrate was 100 dollars/ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions ranged from 22,260 - 22,600 yuan/ton [4]. 3.6 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 6 - November 17, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets on November 17 was 162,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with November 10 and an increase of 1,300 tons compared with November 13 [5]. 3.7 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 17 - The total zinc warrants on November 17 was 76,861 tons, an increase of 5,108 tons. Among them, the warrants in Guangdong increased by 1,712 tons [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 17 - The inventory in different LME warehouses changed, with an overall increase in some warehouses and a decrease in others [7]. 3.9 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 17 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 17,980 - 18,480 yuan, with price increases and decreases in different regions [9]. 3.10 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 17 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters ranged from 22,100 - 23,100 yuan, all with a price decrease of 90 yuan [12]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October 2025 was 509,600 tons, and the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The planned production in November is 522,300 tons [14]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 17 - The processing fees of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 2,400 - 3,100 yuan/metal ton, with most regions showing a decrease [16]. 3.13 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 17 - For the contract code zn2512, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 154,364 lots, a decrease of 37,180 lots compared with the previous day. The total long position was 61,285 lots, a decrease of 5,837 lots, and the total short position was 63,757 lots, a decrease of 4,713 lots [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1590 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -72, and the premium - discount ratio is -4.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract shows that industrial demand is moderately weak, agricultural demand is weak, and the improvement in exports compared to the previous period boosts the market sentiment. The domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 million tons | | 19.5681 million tons | 4.4838 million tons | 18.6% | 24.0519 million tons | 236,600 tons | 24.0519 million tons | | | 2019 | | 24.455 million tons | 8.9% | 22.4 million tons | 4.8794 million tons | 17.9% | 27.2794 million tons | 378,600 tons | 27.1374 million tons | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 million tons | 15.5% | 25.8098 million tons | 6.1912 million tons | 19.3% | 32.001 million tons | 378,300 tons | 32.0013 million tons | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 million tons | 11.4% | 29.2799 million tons | 3.5241 million tons | 10.7% | 32.804 million tons | 357,200 tons | 32.8251 million tons | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 million tons | 8.4% | 29.6546 million tons | 3.3537 million tons | 10.2% | 33.0083 million tons | 446,200 tons | 32.9193 million tons | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 38.935 million tons | 14.1% | 31.9359 million tons | 2.9313 million tons | 8.4% | 34.8672 million tons | 446,500 tons | 34.8669 million tons | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 million tons | 13.5% | 34.25 million tons | 3.6 million tons | 9.5% | 37.85 million tons | 514,000 tons | 37.7825 million tons | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 million tons | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1590 | -10 | 01 Contract | 1662 | 10 | Warehouse Receipts | 7183 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1590 | -10 | Basis | -72 | -20 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.566 million tons | | | Henan Spot | 1600 | 0 | UR01 | 1662 | 10 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.484 million tons | | | FOB China | 2843 | | UR05 | 1737 | 10 | UR Port Inventory | 82,000 tons | | | | | | UR09 | 1755 | 7 | | | | [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.32% higher than the previous week at 1,226 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous week. Supply has narrow fluctuations, and next week's output is expected to increase slightly to 740,000 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 85%. Demand from downstream industries is average, and they mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis. As of November 13, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,226 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from the previous value. - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous value. - The main basis was - 56 yuan/ton, up 1.82% from the previous value [8]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [14]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 232 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - **开工率、产能产量**: The weekly industry operating rate was 84.80%. The weekly output was 739,200 tons, including 410,900 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 55.54% [20][22][24]. - **Industry Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [25]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - **产销率**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 100.93% [28]. - **下游需求**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,100 tons, with an operating rate of 75% [31]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the glass futures fluctuated downward. The closing price of the main contract FG2601 decreased by 5.41% compared to the previous week, reaching 1032 yuan/ton. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1028 yuan/ton, down 2.28% from the previous week. The glass fundamentals show stable supply and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1091 yuan/ton to 1032 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.41%. The spot benchmark price dropped from 1052 yuan/ton to 1028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.28%. The main basis decreased by 89.74% from -39 yuan/ton to -4 yuan/ton [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1028 yuan/ton, down 2.28% from the previous week [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit No specific content provided. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 75%. The daily melting capacity is 159,100 tons, and both the number of operating lines and capacity are at historically low levels for the same period [22][24]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons. The terminal real - estate demand is still weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [27][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.247 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio of float glass each year. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, the consumption was 53.1 million tons, the production growth rate was 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [40].