1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures oscillated and declined yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. The processing margin remains at a low level. It is expected that the PTA spot price will mainly oscillate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in the equipment [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated and declined, and the spot basis continued to decline. In the long - term, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol. In the near - term, it has improved due to a reduction in some supplies. The short - term price center of ethylene glycol is expected to operate weakly, and there is continuous upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the outflow speed of warehouse receipts in northern Jiangsu [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No content provided in the given text. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures oscillated down, spot negotiation general, basis slightly stronger, some polyester factories made bids, and a major supplier sold goods. Transaction prices and basis for different months were given [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4605, 01 - contract basis was - 65, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, changing from long to short [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price to follow cost side, basis to fluctuate, focus on equipment changes [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: Price center oscillated down, basis declined, night - session opened slightly higher and then weakened, and some traders actively bought far - month futures [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3955, 01 - contract basis was 48, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China was 62.2 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [7]. - Expectation: Long - term inventory pressure exists, short - term price to operate weakly, focus on supply changes and warehouse receipt outflow [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No content provided in the given text. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were presented, including PTA capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory. For example, in November 2025, PTA capacity was 9472, production was 638, and the ending inventory was 296 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were provided, covering EG production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory. For instance, in November 2025, EG production was 58, total supply was 244, and port inventory change was 12 [12]. - **Price and Margin Data**: On November 18, 2025, compared with November 17, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, and MEG changed, and the margins of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester products also changed. For example, the PTA processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 31.70 yuan/ton [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of urea in China still exceeds demand, but the improvement in exports has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has weakened in the short term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both low year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The overall supply of urea in China still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1610 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -52, and the premium/discount ratio is -3.2%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract shows moderately weak industrial demand, weakening agricultural demand, and improved exports compared to the previous period, which boosts the market sentiment. The overall supply in China still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Improvement in exports [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Excess supply in the domestic market and the commissioning of new production capacities [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1610 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1610 (+20), the Henan spot price is 1610 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2844 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1662 (unchanged), the price of the UR05 contract is 1736 (-1), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (-8). The basis of the UR01 contract is -52 (+20) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.484 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 82,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, 13.5% in 2024, and an expected 11.0% in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes [9].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The fundamentals of both are generally bearish due to oversupply, but there are also some bullish factors such as oil price rebounds and Sino-US relations easing [4][5][6][7] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply on November 12, causing oil prices to fall. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but demand in some areas is starting to decline, and other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 6900 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 115, with a premium ratio of 1.7%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, the continuation of the peak demand season for agricultural films with some areas seeing a decline in demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the Sino-US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors include weaker year-on-year demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is not optimistic, and the crude oil market adjustment has led to falling oil prices. The peak season for plastic weaving is nearing its end, while pipe demand is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 6460 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 68, with a premium ratio of 1.1%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000 tons), which is bearish [6] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, the approaching end of the peak season for plastic weaving, the improvement in pipe demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors include oil price rebounds and Sino-US relations easing, while bearish factors include weaker demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6900 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 6785 (-58), and the basis is 115 (+58). The warehouse receipt is 12,017 (unchanged) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6460 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 6392 (-75), and the basis is 68 (+75). The warehouse receipt is 14,621 (unchanged) [8] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,319,500 tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,906,000 tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The global sugar supply and demand situation in the 25/26 season is expected to shift from balance to surplus, with different institutions having varying forecasts of the surplus volume [4][8][34] - Recently, the external sugar price has been weak, and the profit from importing sugar outside the quota is high. In October, imports increased significantly. The main contract 01 is in a downward oscillation. Considering the approaching delivery date, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. In the short - term, maintain an oscillating and weak outlook [4][8] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO expects the surplus to be adjusted down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons; the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons; in September, the combined import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, and the basis for the 01 contract is 323, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [5] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, showing a neutral situation [5] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [5] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Multiple institutions have provided forecasts for the 25/26 season. For example, ISO expects the supply gap to narrow to 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34] - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be 11.7 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is expected to be 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36] - **Import Cost**: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of imported sugar outside the quota was about 5086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, resulting in considerable import profits [42] 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-19锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2601： 1.基本面：合金厂在"强成本、弱需求"情况下仅维持排单生产，当前基本面无明显利好因素，硅锰市场维持偏弱震荡格 局；中性。 2.基差：现货价5680元/吨，01合约基差0/吨，现货平水期货。中性。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20走平，01合约期价收于MA20下方。中性。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2601：5650-5800震荡运行。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the fundamentals are bullish, with supply-side production scheduled to decrease, demand recovery at a low level, and cost support increasing. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8990 - 9170 [5][8]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are neutral, with continuous decreases in supply-side production scheduling and overall demand showing a continuous decline, while cost support remains stable. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 51880 - 53430 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase from the previous week, indicating a slight uptick in demand [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygenated 553 silicon was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On November 17, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 270 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; and the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [8]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with a decrease in short positions [8]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease from the previous week. The predicted production in November is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 184,200 tons, a 5.13% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduled for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N-type polysilicon is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On November 17, the basis of the 01 contract was -355 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase from the previous week, at a historically low level [10]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [21][22]. 3.4 Polysilicon Market Price Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the price, trading volume, and basis of the PS main contract [24][25]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - The report displays the historical trends of the inventory in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprise weekly inventory, and registered warehouse receipts [27]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The report presents the historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and SMM sample enterprise operating rate [28][29][30][31][33]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang [35][36]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the historical trends of the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [37][38]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the historical trends of the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [40][41]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends - The report presents the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost trends, weekly production, and price [43][44]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Downstream Price Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the average prices of 107 rubber, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [45][46]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Import - Export and Inventory Trends - The report presents the historical trends of DMC monthly import and export volumes and inventory [49][50]. 3.13 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation - The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, China's unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [52][53]. 3.14 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [55][56]. 3.15 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs) - The report shows the historical trends of automobile monthly production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [57][58][59][60]. 3.16 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, operating rate, and monthly demand [62][63].

2025-11-18甲醇早报 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：需求暂无亮点以及供应压力犹存，预计本周国内甲醇市场震荡整理为主。内地方面，产区尤其是内蒙北线 甲醇工厂库存紧张，加之当前价格整体处于底部空间，多数贸易商做空谨慎对价格有支撑作用。但同时，内地甲醇开工 处于高位，区域间货源流通活跃，进口货源倒流入鲁南外甚至部分流入鲁北，供应仍然充裕，但销区需求支撑一般，贸 易商暂未有持货意愿，预计本周内地行情僵持整理。港口方面，基本面来看，暂时注入海外供应减量的锚点，市场心态 有所转变，但实质上缺乏反转上行的支撑条件，预计本周港口甲醇市场或底部偏强震荡等待反弹契机，关注伊朗装置 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of lithium carbonate showed that last week's production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand side indicated that the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises decreased by 0.92% week - on - week to 104,738 tons, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 1.74% week - on - week to 19,211 tons. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 85,482 yuan/ton, a 1.35% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 543 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite was 89,096 yuan/ton, a 1.98% daily increase, with a loss of 6,327 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation. - Overall, the fundamentals were neutral, the basis was bearish, the inventory situation was neutral, the disk was bullish, the main position was bearish, and the market of lithium carbonate 2601 fluctuated greatly, suggesting cautious operation [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased slightly week - on - week, and downstream inventory decreased. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month was 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month was 27,000 tons, a 22.73% increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene and lepidolite increased, resulting in losses. The cost of the salt lake end was low, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - **Market Indicators**: The basis was negative, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The overall inventory decreased, and the disk showed a bullish trend, while the main position was net short with a reduction in short positions [9]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors included the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. Negative factors were the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Under the tight balance of supply and demand, the market was affected by sentiment fluctuations caused by news [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of upstream lithium minerals, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 1.79% to $1,024/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.17% to 86,150 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 75.34%. The daily production cost of spodumene increased by 1.35% to 85,482 yuan/ton, and the monthly production cost decreased by 0.83% to 20,410 yuan/ton. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased by 6.35% and 10.54% respectively [18]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased. The monthly export of lithium iron phosphate increased by 54.57%. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.93% to 104,738 tons [18]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of smelters decreased by 7.96% to 28,270 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 6.22% to 48,772 tons, other inventory increased by 5.34% to 43,430 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 2.80% to 120,472 tons [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: The supply - demand balance tables of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different supply - demand situations in different months. For example, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was - 13,025 tons [27][34][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The geopolitical events have a significant impact on short - term oil price movements. The hawkish attitude of some Fed governors dampens the optimistic expectation of a December interest rate cut, putting pressure on the market. Considering the uncertain supply - side factors, the oil price will fluctuate in the short term. The SC2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to remain on the sidelines [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the SC2512 contract, considering multiple factors such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, etc., it is expected to trade in the 455 - 465 range in the short term, and long - term investors should stay on the sidelines. The fundamentals include geopolitical events, Fed's attitude, and supply - side uncertainties [3]. 2. Recent News - President Trump is considering expanding military operations in Latin America, including possible actions against Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico. He has ordered the deployment of more naval assets to the Caribbean, raising concerns about an unauthorized military expansion. He also mentioned the possibility of direct dialogue with Venezuelan President Maduro [5]. - Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson believes that the Fed should "proceed with caution" on further interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Waller thinks the current employment market situation supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the next meeting [5]. - The Novorossiysk oil terminal has resumed oil loading, but the attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine are still under attention [5]. 3. Long - Short Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tensions in the Middle East are easing, and institutions generally expect an oil supply surplus. The cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia also add to the negative factors [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term negative impacts have subsided, and geopolitical positive factors are not obvious. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of oversupply [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 17, the spot price of Oman crude was $65.23 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.16 per barrel. The basis was 33.71 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory Data**: The API crude inventory in the US increased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7. The EIA inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels in the week ending November 7, exceeding the expected increase of 1.96 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 34,600 barrels in the week ending November 7. As of November 17, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - As of September 23, the long positions of WTI crude oil's main contract increased. As of November 11, the long positions of Brent crude oil's main contract also increased [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The market has returned to a state of oscillation while awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season for rapeseed meal has passed, but low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it is influenced by soybean meal and maintains range - bound fluctuations. The market is currently focusing on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of a tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [9]. 3. Summary According to Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2460 - 2520 range - bound oscillation. The market is influenced by soybean meal and is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak has passed, but low inventory supports the market [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing market expectations. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 7th to 17th, as the date progresses, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuates slightly, and the trading volume also shows significant fluctuations. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal gradually decreases, and the trading volume is 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually widens [13]. - From November 7th to 17th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (both the main 2601 and far - month 2605 contracts) and the spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) all show a downward trend [15]. - From November 6th to 17th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remain at 2745 or 2755, with only a slight change on November 6th and 7th [16]. - The import of rapeseed has no ship schedule forecast in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory remain at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume also stays low. Aquatic fish prices decline slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [22][24][34]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within 2460 - 2520, with a neutral fundamental view. The basis is positive, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is decreasing, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions are increasing while the capital is flowing out, all of which are bullish signals. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the recent rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it will return to an oscillating pattern in the short term [9].