1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 31.3998%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. Refineries have recently reduced production, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 17.1358%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 28.33%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.86%, a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 629.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the cost support will strengthen in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production reduction has alleviated supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish; inventory remains flat; with the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3486 - 3528 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Bullish. The refinery's production reduction alleviates supply pressure, but overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory remains flat, and the cost support strengthens in the short term [8][10]. - **Basis**: On August 29, the spot price in Shandong was 3510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 21 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Neutral [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1270000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%; factory inventory was 674000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.86%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 190000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.67%. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. Neutral [11]. - **Futures Price Chart**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20. Neutral [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases. Bullish [11]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main - Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trends**: The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The report presents the historical trends of social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import - Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [86][90]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [95][98][99]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The report presents the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including data on monthly downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 11 - contract was in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bullish volatile adjustment next week. The supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased [4][5][77]. - For polysilicon, the 11 - contract was also in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bearish volatile adjustment next week. The supply is expected to continue increasing, demand is showing continuous recovery, and cost support has weakened [7][8][79]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The 11 - contract opened at 8930 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8390 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 6.04% [4]. - **Supply**: This week's supply was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% increase from the previous week. Sample enterprise production was 40,340 tons, a 5.51% increase. Yunnan's sample enterprise operating rate remained flat at 68.04%, Sichuan's increased by 6.23% to 32.59%, and Xinjiang's increased by 6.99% to 62.57%. The expected operating rate for this month is 53.8%, up 1.19 percentage points from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week's demand was 82,000 tons, a 3.80% increase from the previous week. In polysilicon, inventory was 213,000 tons, lower than the historical average. In organic silicon, inventory was 54,300 tons, lower than the historical average, with a production profit of 105 yuan/ton and an operating rate of 70.59%. In aluminum alloy, inventory was 54,600 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 3254 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 541,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 173,500 tons, a 0.91% decrease; and major port inventory was 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase [5]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The 11 - contract opened at 52,320 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 49,555 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 5.28% [7]. - **Supply**: Last week's production was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% increase. The predicted production for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from last month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, silicon wafer production was 15.63 GW, a 27.17% increase, with an inventory of 180,500 tons, a 3.67% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell production in July was 58.19 GW, a 0.20% increase, and last week's inventory was 7.03 GW, a 20.99% increase, also in a loss state. Component production in July was 47.1 GW, a 1.72% increase, and the expected production in August is 46.82 GW, a 0.59% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,570 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,430 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 213,000 tons, a 14.45% decrease, at a historical low [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: There are trends in the basis of the SI main contract, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc. [14][15]. - **Inventory**: There are trends in the inventory of delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the quantity of registered warrants [17][18][19]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: There are trends in the weekly production, monthly production by specification, and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions [21][22][23]. - **Cost**: There are trends in the costs of major production areas such as electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There are weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance [29][33]. Industrial Silicon Downstream - **Organic Silicon**: There are trends in DMC price, production, capacity utilization, profit, cost, downstream product prices, import - export, and inventory [35][37][41]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: There are trends in price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) [44][47][49]. - **Polysilicon**: There are trends in cost, price, inventory, production, demand, supply - demand balance, and the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [52][53][55]. 3. Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The main 11 - contract was in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bullish volatile adjustment next week. There are price and trading volume trends, as well as moving average data [75][77]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The main 11 - contract was in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bearish volatile adjustment next week. There are price and trading volume trends, as well as moving average data [78][79].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the soda ash industry from August 25 - 29, 2025, released by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to decline in a volatile manner, with the main contract SA2601 closing 2.26% lower than the previous week at 1,296 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe also dropped by 1.23% to 1,205 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase as previously - shut - down enterprises resume production, while the demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass remains weak. The industry's fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Trends - **Futures**: The main contract SA2601 of soda ash futures closed at 1,296 yuan/ton, down 2.26% from the previous week [2]. - **Spot**: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,205 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decrease from the previous week [2]. - **Basis**: The main basis was - 91 yuan/ton, a - 14.15% change [8]. 2. Supply - side Analysis - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using North China ammonia - soda method was - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that of East China co - production method was - 58 yuan/ton, showing a recovery from historical lows [17]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly industry operating rate was 82.47%, showing a seasonal decline. The weekly output was 71.91 tons, with heavy soda ash at 38.32 tons, at a historical high [20][22]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [26]. 3. Demand - side Analysis - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 97.80% [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, with an operating rate of 75.49% stabilizing [32]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume continued a significant downward trend [38]. 4. Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 186.75 tons, a 2.27% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [41]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 - 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, and growth rates [42]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The peak maintenance period in the industry is approaching, and production will decline [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the soda ash capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash, and the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5][7]. 7. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as the expected abundant supply in China, the high arrival of imported soybeans in August, and the discount of spot prices. It may enter a slightly bullish shock pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 and 3060 [8]. - The soybean market is affected by factors such as the expected increase in imported soybeans, technical selling pressure, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. It is currently in a neutral state, with the A2511 contract oscillating between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively bullish data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports price expectations, and due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 79, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 273, indicating a premium to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybean**: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （8.25 大越期货投资咨询部 -8.29 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：宏观面暂无利好，而供需矛盾逐步凸显，预计下周国内甲醇价格或承压下行。内地来看，近 期检修装置不多，而八月下旬易高、世林等多套甲醇装置重启，供应明显放量。而宁夏CTO工厂外采减少， 以及9月初的大型活动对华北区域内需求有影响，且港口低价货源倒流对内地行情也有压制，缺乏利好驱动 预计短线内地甲醇下行调整。港口方面，伊朗装船发运较为集中，预期港口将持续累库；但伴随价格下跌， 后续港口货倒流内地走量或逐渐扩大；且印度价格继续走强，关注转口窗口；宏观面降温，基本面偏弱，弱 现实主导下，短期驱动仍然向下。 国内甲醇现货价格 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利好出尽，豆粕维持震荡 （豆粕周报8.25-8.29） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 偏多 | 美国大豆产区天气短期仍有 | | | 期尚有变数 | | 变数。中性或偏多 | | 进口成本 | 美豆维持震荡，中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏强，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏多 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期尚好， 油厂压榨量维持高位 | 偏空 | 需求短期回升，油厂开机预 计维持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8245 - 8535 for the 2511 contract. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [6]. - For polysilicon, supply - side production scheduling continues to increase, demand - side silicon wafer and cell production continue to increase, and component production decreases in the short - term but is expected to recover in the medium - term. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48495 - 50615 for the 2511 contract [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 82,000 tons, a 380% increase from the previous week, and demand has increased [6]. - **Inventory**: Silicon inventory is 213,000 tons, at a low level; organic silicon inventory is 54,300 tons, at a low level; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 54,600 tons, at a high level; social inventory is 541,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,500 tons, a 0.91% decrease from the previous week; and the inventory of major ports is 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3254 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On August 29th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 560 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions have increased [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 15.63GW, a 27.17% increase from the previous week; the inventory was 180,500 tons, a 3.67% increase from the previous week, and currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In August, the production scheduling is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. In July, the cell production was 58.19GW, a 0.20% increase from the previous month; last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 7.03GW, a 20.99% increase from the previous week, and currently, cell production is in a loss state. In August, the production scheduling is 59.15GW, a 1.64% increase from the previous month. In July, the component production was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month; the expected component production in August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month; the domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month; the European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month, and currently, component production is in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,570 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,430 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On August 29th, the price of N - type dense material was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 555 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 213,000 tons, a 14.45% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical low for the same period [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions have decreased [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - The prices of various industrial silicon contracts and spot prices have shown different degrees of decline, and inventory has also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [17]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - The prices of various polysilicon contracts and related product prices have shown different degrees of change, and production, inventory, and other data have also changed [19]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report shows the trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon over time [22]. 5. Industrial Silicon Inventory - It presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises over time [25][26]. 6. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - It shows the weekly production trends of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production trends by specification, as well as the enterprise start - up rate trends [29][30][31]. 7. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - It shows the cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan regions and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang region over time [35]. 8. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables - The weekly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon over time. The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the actual consumption, export, import, and other data for different months [37][40]. 9. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production Trends**: It shows the DMC capacity utilization rate, cost - profit, and production trends over time [43]. - **Downstream Price Trends**: It shows the price trends of products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 over time [45]. - **Import - Export and Inventory Trends**: It shows the import, export, and inventory trends of DMC over time [49]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: It shows the waste aluminum recycling, inventory, import of aluminum crushed materials, and the import - export situation of unfabricated aluminum alloy, as well as the price trends of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and the cost - profit trends of imported ADC12 [52]. - **Inventory and Production Trends**: It shows the monthly production trends of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly start - up rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory trends of aluminum alloy ingots [55]. - **Demand (Automobiles and Wheels)**: It shows the monthly production of automobiles, the export trends of aluminum alloy wheels, and the monthly sales of automobiles [56]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - **Fundamental Trends**: It shows the cost, price, inventory, production, start - up rate, and demand trends of polysilicon over time [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the consumption, export, import, supply, and balance data of polysilicon for different months [63]. - **Silicon Wafer Trends**: It shows the price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends of silicon wafers over time [66]. - **Cell Trends**: It shows the price, production scheduling, actual production, inventory, start - up rate, and export trends of cells over time [69]. - **Photovoltaic Component Trends**: It shows the price, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export trends of photovoltaic components over time [72]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: It shows the price trends of photovoltaic coatings, the import - export trends of photovoltaic films, the monthly production and export trends of photovoltaic glass, the price trends of high - purity quartz sand, and the import - export trends of solder strips [75]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: It shows the cost and profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components over time [77]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: No specific content analysis provided as there is no detailed description of the chart in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [8][10] - **Negative factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - **Main logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] - **Expected trend**: The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,874 - 4,940. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [8][10] - **Negative factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - **Main logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [7] - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, flat month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7][8] - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 79.20% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 6.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,717.05 yuan/ton, with profits decreasing by 0.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [7] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production of different types of PVC, as well as operating rates and profit margins of downstream industries [13] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the basis, PVC market price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract [15][16] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - The report shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, as well as the position changes of the top 5/20 seats [19] 3.6 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical trend chart of the main contract spreads of PVC futures, including 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [21][22] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Lanthanum Coke - The report shows the historical data of lanthanum coke prices, costs, profits, operating rates, inventory, and daily production [24][25] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide - The report shows the historical data of calcium carbide prices, costs, profits, operating rates, maintenance losses, and production [27][28] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - The report shows the historical data of liquid chlorine and raw salt prices, production, and monthly production [30][31] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda - The report shows the historical data of caustic soda prices, costs, profits, operating rates, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, and inventory [32][33][34] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows the historical data of PVC production capacity utilization rates, profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of sample enterprises [36][37][38] 3.12 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report shows the historical data of PVC traders' daily sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream industries [40][41][42] 3.13 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [54][55] 3.14 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - The report shows the historical data of vinyl chloride imports, dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, and price spreads [56][57] 3.15 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices oscillated last week. WTI crude futures closed at $64.01 per barrel, up 0.38% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $67.46 per barrel, up 0.30% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.9 yuan per barrel, down 1.97% for the week [5]. - Geopolitical tensions initially supported oil prices, but mid - week, less - than - expected inventory drawdowns in the US, Russia's plan to increase exports after refinery attacks, and India's consideration of importing Russian oil led to a decline in oil prices [5]. - Due to increased supply from OPEC+ and lackluster global demand, there is a greater prospect of market surplus in 2025 and 2026, which may push down prices [6]. - Geopolitical risk premiums are expected to support oil prices as the possibility of a quick cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is low [6]. - Indian refineries are expected to increase Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September, or 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day [5][7]. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, causing a local supply crisis, but also potentially increasing Russian crude oil exports [6]. - Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound at low levels. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 475 - 505, and long - term long positions can be held [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - WTI crude futures closed at $64.01 per barrel, up 0.38% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $67.46 per barrel, up 0.30% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.9 yuan per barrel, down 1.97% for the week [5]. - Geopolitical talks between the US, Ukraine, Russia, and the EU were deadlocked, and Russia's repeated attacks on Kiev supported oil prices in the early part of the week. Mid - week, less - than - expected inventory drawdowns in the US, Russia's plan to increase exports after refinery attacks, and India's consideration of importing Russian oil led to a decline in oil prices [5]. - As of the week of August 26, the speculative net - long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 23,848 contracts to 206,543 contracts; the net - long positions in WTI crude oil futures held by speculators decreased by 10,737 contracts to 109,472 contracts [5]. - A US judge panel upheld a previous ruling that Trump wrongly invoked an emergency law to impose tariffs, and the US government has time to appeal to the Supreme Court [5]. - Indian refineries are expected to increase Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September, or 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day [5][7]. - Ukraine's attack on 10 Russian refineries has disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, causing a local supply crisis, but also potentially increasing Russian crude oil exports [6]. 3.2 Related Information - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and it may continue to increase production, which could lead to a large supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 and push down prices [6]. - Most respondents believe that Trump's threat to Russian crude oil buyers has limited impact on the oil market as OPEC+ and other suppliers can fill the supply gap [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound at low levels. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 475 - 505, and long - term long positions can be held [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Weekly Prices**: The current prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Chinese Shengli crude oil, Dubai crude oil, and OPEC's basket of crude oil prices are $67.62, $64.16, $70.09, $65.60, $70.16, and $70.10 respectively, with changes of - 0.29, 1.03, 1.16, 1.04, 1.19, and 0.91 and percentage changes of - 0.43%, 1.63%, 1.68%, 1.62%, 1.73%, and 1.31% respectively [10]. - **Cushing Inventory**: As of August 22, the Cushing inventory was 22.632 million barrels, a decrease of 838,000 barrels [11]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of August 22, the EIA inventory was 418.292 million barrels, a decrease of 2.392 million barrels [12]. 3.5 Position Data - **CFTC Fund Net - Long Positions**: As of August 26, the net - long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 109,472 contracts, a decrease of 10,737 contracts [18]. - **ICE Fund Net - Long Positions**: As of August 26, the net - long positions in Brent crude oil futures were 206,543 contracts, an increase of 23,848 contracts [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market fundamentals remain weak, with short - term expectations of a mainly weak and oscillatory trend. The supply has declined to a relatively low level, and there has been a phased reduction in the glass factory's inventory due to downstream replenishment, but the sustainability of this inventory reduction is uncertain, and it is expected that the glass will mainly have a wide - range oscillatory movement [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Glass Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The glass futures showed an oscillatory trend last week. The closing price of the main contract FG2601 increased by 0.77% to 1182 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1060 yuan/ton, a 1.12% decrease from the previous week. The main contract basis was - 122 yuan/ton, a 20.79% increase [2][8][13]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Glass Market 3.2.1 Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there are expectations of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [5]. 3.2.2 Negative Factors - The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly consuming their original inventory. The market sentiment of the "anti - involution" has faded [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 224, with an operating rate of 75.49% and a daily melting volume of 159,600 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The supply has stabilized at a historical low [3]. 3.3.2 Demand - The orders of downstream processing plants remain at a weak level, with no obvious improvement. They mainly purchase based on rigid demand and have no intention to stock up due to the continuous decline in the price of raw glass. As of August 28, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 62.566 million weight boxes, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory continued to accumulate [3]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.566 million weight boxes, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [43]. 3.3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44].