1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures rebound in a volatile manner, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased, and both long and short positions reduced, with more short - positions being cut. It was a volume - shrinking rebound. The bulls were active in exiting the market during the price rebound, and the bears were even more active. The market may experience a short - term volatile decline. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the weak zone. The trend indicator rose, with the bullish power increasing and the bearish power decreasing, and the dominance of the bearish power narrowing. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2511 will decline in a volatile manner [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 0.0113 million tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 0.2133 million tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, indicating a bullish situation [2]. - The spot price was 21,910, and the basis was + 135, suggesting a bearish situation [2]. - On September 25th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 600 tons to 43,800 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 774 tons to 56,583 tons, showing a bullish situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile upward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average which was downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - The main force held a net long position, and the long positions decreased, suggesting a bullish situation [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (September 25) - Various delivery - month contracts of zinc futures showed different price movements, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, the 2511 contract had an opening price of 21,935, a closing price of 22,045, a trading volume of 158,280 lots, and an open - interest of 131,286 lots with a decrease of 10,581 lots. The total trading volume of all contracts was 242,174 lots, and the total open - interest was 238,462 lots with a decrease of 14,894 lots [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (September 25) - Different zinc - related products in the domestic market had different prices and price changes. For instance, zinc concentrate in a certain area was priced at 16,570 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan/ton, and zinc ingots in a certain area were priced at 21,910 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (September 15 - 25, 2025) - The total zinc ingot inventory in the main markets decreased from 14.95 million tons on September 15th to 13.54 million tons on September 25th. Compared with September 18th, it decreased by 1.28 million tons, and compared with September 22nd, it decreased by 0.91 million tons [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (September 25) - The total zinc warrants in the futures exchange were 56,583 tons, a decrease of 774 tons compared to the previous day. Different regions and warehouses had different warrant quantities and changes. For example, in Guangdong, the total was 28,915 tons with no change, and in Tianjin, it was 26,947 tons with a decrease of 575 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (September 25) - The LME zinc inventory on September 25th was 43,800 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 30,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 13,075 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 29.85% [7]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (September 25) - Zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in different domestic cities had prices ranging from 16,470 to 16,670 yuan/ton, all with an increase of 40 yuan/ton [9]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (September 25) - Zinc ingots of 0 grade from different smelters had different prices. For example, those from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting were priced at 22,140 yuan/ton, and those from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry were priced at 22,470 yuan/ton, all with an increase of 50 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 0.4597 million tons, the actual production was 0.4718 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 0.4703 million tons [16]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (September 25) - Zinc concentrate processing fees varied by region. For 50% grade zinc concentrates, the domestic processing fees ranged from 3,400 to 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and for imported 48% grade zinc concentrates, it was 90 - 110 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (September 25) - In the trading and position ranking of the zn2511 contract, different futures companies had different trading volumes, long - positions, and short - positions and their changes. For example, CITIC Futures had a trading volume of 50,057 lots with an increase of 14,272 lots, a long - position of 8,973 lots with a decrease of 1,433 lots, and a short - position of 17,870 lots with a decrease of 1,122 lots. The total trading volume of all companies was 248,133 lots with an increase of 80,478 lots, the total long - position was 88,263 lots with a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the total short - position was 92,681 lots with a decrease of 8,057 lots [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国GDP增速超预期叠加首申失业金人数下降，10月降息预期降温，金 价回升；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线收跌；美债收益率多数上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨1.93个基点报4.158%；美元指数涨0.60%报98.47，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1452；COMEX黄金期货涨0.33%报3780.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货854.72，现货850.58，基差-4.14，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单60543千克，增加1530千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Views For沪镍 - The outer - market price of nickel has dropped significantly and is trading below the 20 - day moving average. The price of nickel ore is firm, and freight rates are stable with a slight increase. The price of nickel iron has risen slightly, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless - steel inventory is falling, and the "Golden September and Silver October" period has seen good inventory reduction. New - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the loading of ternary batteries is declining, with limited boost to nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The basis is positive, LME inventory is unchanged, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts have increased. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions.沪镍2511 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2] For Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel is flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore and freight rates are firm, and the price of nickel iron is stable with a slight increase, so the cost line is firm. Stainless - steel inventory is falling, and the "Golden September and Silver October" period has seen good inventory reduction. The basis is positive, and the futures warehouse receipts have decreased. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. Stainless steel 2511 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On September 25, the price of沪镍主力 was 122,990, up 1,540 from the previous day; the price of伦镍电 was 15,240, down 195; the price of stainless steel主力 was 12,930, up 35. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 121,250, down 900, and the cold - roll index was 12,560, down 30 [11] - **Spot Prices**: On September 25, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 124,050, up 1,600; the price of 1金川 nickel was 125,200, up 1,550; the price of 1 imported nickel was 123,225, up 1,625; the price of nickel beans was 125,350, up 1,600. The prices of cold - roll 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [11] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 19, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 29,834 tons, with the futures inventory at 25,843 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons and 2,314 tons respectively. On September 25, the LME nickel inventory was 230,586 (unchanged), the沪镍 (warehouse receipts) was 25,105, up 134, and the total inventory was 255,691, up 134 [13][14] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 19, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,200 tons, in Foshan was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a decrease of 25,400 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 617,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons. On September 25, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 87,803, a decrease of 430 [18][19] Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On September 25, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars per wet ton, unchanged; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 955 yuan per nickel point, down 0.5; the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,450 yuan per ton, unchanged [21] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 13,181, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,519, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,993 [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 122,838 yuan per ton [26]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-26燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：受到稳定的下游船燃活动及炼厂部分原料需求的支撑，亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构微幅走强。此外， 380CST高硫燃料油现货溢价攀升至两个多月来最高水平；一位新加坡燃料油交易商称，当前含硫0.5%船用燃油 市场的主要问题仍在于库存充足，在当前市场结构下，低硫燃料油供应难以释放，因为无人愿意以贴水价格销 售；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油406.76美元/吨，基差为102元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为470.5美元/吨，基差为-6元/ 吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油9月17日当周库存为2315. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1080元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1270元/吨，基差为-190元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5935.50万重量箱，较前一周减少2.55%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-26 影响因素总结 利多： 一、玻璃期货行情 | 日盘 | 主力合约收盘价 | 沙河安全大板 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market shows a mixed situation with a generally bearish domestic fundamental outlook but some bullish factors. The overall supply in the domestic market exceeds demand significantly, and it is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today. The main influencing factors are the strong international prices and weak domestic demand, and the key risk lies in changes in export policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been fluctuating weakly recently. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply in the domestic urea market still significantly exceeds demand, the theoretical export profit has continued to reach new highs, but the export volume has decreased due to policy and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56, with a premium/discount ratio of 3.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 142.1 million tons (+5.1), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (+30), the Shandong spot price is 1730 (+30), the Henan spot price is 1740 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 3210 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1674 (+1), the basis is 56 (+29), the price of the UR05 contract is 1727 (+3), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (+2) [6]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 142.1 million tons (+5.1), the UR manufacturer inventory is 95.7 million tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 46.4 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2023, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown corresponding changes. For example, in 2023, the production capacity was 3893.5, the production volume was 3193.59, the net import volume was 293.13, the apparent consumption was 3486.72, and the actual consumption was 3486.69. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Daily View - Fundamental factors: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is average, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,315 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 165.15 tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; this is a neutral factor [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; this is a bearish factor [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The peak maintenance period of the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level; downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4]. 3. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract has increased from 1,307 yuan/ton to 1,315 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe has increased from 1,210 yuan/ton to 1,220 yuan/ton, a 0.83% increase; the main basis has changed from - 97 yuan to - 95 yuan, a - 2.06% change [6]. 5. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous day [11]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 96.75 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 108.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.53%. The weekly production of soda ash is 74.57 tons, including 41.77 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [17][19]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [20]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production - sales ratio: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 103.56% [23]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate of 76.01% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [26][32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 165.15 tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, and growth rates [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For coking coal, under the support of pre - holiday rigid demand replenishment, the coking coal price may continue to operate at a high level in the short term. However, due to the slowdown of downstream procurement rhythm, it is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term. The factors affecting the price include the increase in pig iron production and limited supply increment on the positive side, and the slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices on the negative side [3][5]. - For coke, the continuous strengthening of raw coking coal prices provides strong support for coke costs. The coke supply remains stable. Driven by pre - holiday stockpiling, the downstream rigid demand has increased, but the terminal consumption is still weak. It is expected that coke will remain stable in the short term. The positive factors are the increase in pig iron production and blast furnace operating rate, while the negative factors are the squeezed profit space of steel mills and the partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - The document provides the spot price quotations of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on September 25, 2025, including the prices of various coal types at different ports [10]. Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31]. Production and Utilization Rate - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - PTA futures followed the cost side to open low and move low. PTA's own device restarts and reduces production simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that PTA spot prices will fluctuate in the short term, mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5] - The price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rebounded slightly on Thursday, with general market discussions. The MEG futures oscillated within a range, and the basis of near - term spot weakened significantly. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to device and production - sales changes. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the futures performance is under pressure [7] - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the futures rebound [12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and rose. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was general, and the spot basis changed little. The September goods were negotiated at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4550 - 4615. The mainstream of mid - October was traded at 01 - 50, and the end - October was traded at a discount of 45 - 50 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 73. The spot price is 4585, the basis of the 01 contract is - 93, and the futures is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [5][6] - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly, with general market discussions. The intraday MEG futures oscillated within a range, and the basis of near - term spot weakened significantly. In the morning, the low - level basis of spot was traded at a premium of about 56 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The basis of far - month futures weakened limitedly due to less market trading. In the afternoon, the futures oscillated narrowly, and the basis changed little. In US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the recent shipments were negotiated around 508 - 510 US dollars/ton, with the intraday recent shipments traded around 505 - 509 US dollars/ton. The spot price is 4311, the basis of the 01 contract is 65, and the futures is at a discount. The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position decreased [7][8] 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [13] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, port inventory, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [14] 5.价格相关 - Multiple price - related charts are provided, including the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, futures spreads, basis, and spot spreads of PET bottle chips, PTA, and MEG from 2020 to 2025 [16][19][23][24][26][30][33][37][40] 6.库存分析 - Multiple inventory - related charts are provided, including the factory inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fiber, as well as the inventory days of various polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][47][51] 7.聚酯上下游开工 - Multiple charts are provided to show the开工 rates of polyester upstream (PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) from 2020 to 2025 [53][57] 8.利润相关 - Multiple charts are provided to show the production profits of PTA, MEG (produced by different methods), polyester fiber (short - fiber, long - fiber DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal. For soybean meal, it is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2920 and 2980. For soybeans, the A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3880 and 3980. The market is mainly influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, soybean supply and demand, and livestock farming conditions [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, and the US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark. The US soybean weather and Sino - US trade negotiations are in a critical period. The September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. The domestic import of soybeans remains high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded in August and September, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations persists, and soybean meal has returned to an interval - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in September, and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest with a continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated and increased [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the domestic soybean harvest area, output, and import volume have changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [32]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: The report provides price data for soybean and meal futures and spot markets from September 16 to 24, 2025, showing the price trends and price differences between futures and spot markets [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: The report provides warehouse receipt data for soybeans and soybean meal from September 12 to 24, 2025, showing the changes in warehouse receipts [19]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection of US soybeans has increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has decreased from its high in September but has generally increased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a new high, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has followed the decline of US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market has fluctuated slightly. The pig inventory has continued to rise, while the sow inventory has remained flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently declined again, and piglet prices have remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The domestic pig - farming profit has recently deteriorated [42][44][45].