交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-12-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，近期国内南方生猪二次育肥有所上升，出栏短期减少支撑生猪价格，加上腊肉 和灌肠需求释放，预计供给猪、肉双增。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，北方腊肉需求逐 渐释放支撑价格底部，但未来整体消费仍不乐观。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双增、猪价短期 震荡回升中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月底集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。 中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11520元/吨，2603合约基差125元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3. 库存：截至9月30日，生猪存栏量43680万头，环比增加0.2%，同比增加2.3%；截至9月末， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. **Viewpoints and Strategies for Soybean Meal** - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2740 - 2800. The market is currently neutral due to a combination of factors such as the performance of US soybeans, the demand for domestic soybean meal, and inventory levels [9]. 2. **Viewpoints and Strategies for Soybeans** - Soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4080 - 4180. The market is also neutral, influenced by the US - China trade agreement, South American soybean planting weather, and the supply - demand situation of domestic soybeans [11]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. **Daily Hints** - Not provided in the report 2. **Recent News** - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to be relatively strong above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China has decreased in December, but the soybean inventory of oil mills remains high. The planting and growing weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and the soybean meal market has returned to range - bound fluctuations [13]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, which supports the price of soybean meal. The market is affected by both the performance of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation has an impact. The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, waiting for more information on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. **Long and Short Concerns** **Soybean Meal** - **Long Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Short Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; if the weather is normal, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. **Soybeans** - **Long Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Short Factors**: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [16]. 4. **Fundamental Data** **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data** - From December 18 to 26, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal fluctuated, while the rapeseed meal had no transactions during this period. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated slightly [17]. **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data** - From December 19 to 26, the prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and spot prices all showed certain fluctuations. The spot price of soybean meal was generally higher than the futures price [19]. **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data** - From December 17 to 26, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, and soybean meal changed to varying degrees [21]. **Soybean Meal Spot Price Data** - The spot price of soybean meal fluctuates with the futures price, and the premium of the spot price over the futures price has a slight fluctuation [24]. **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Data** - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33][34]. **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress Data** - The report provides the planting and harvesting progress data of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026, including the planting rate, harvesting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, leaf - falling rate, and other indicators [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report Data** - The report provides the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025, including data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume of the US, as well as the output data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [45]. **Other Fundamental Data** - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [46]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in December has increased slightly, with an overall year - on - year increase [48]. 5. **Position Data** - Not provided in the report

证券代码：839979 沥青期货周报 2025年12月22日-12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周02合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为2930元/吨,周五收盘价为2995元/吨，周涨幅为2.22%。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石 油沥青样本产能利用率为33.1376%，环比增加3.955个百分点，全国样本企业出货27.181万吨，环比增加 11.17%,样本企业产量为55.3万吨，环比增加13.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为95.1万吨，环比减少 0.41%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为31.3%,环比 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to rapeseed meal, indicating a short - term oscillatory pattern [8]. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal has rebounded with low - level buying support and is affected by the outcome of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. With the domestic rapeseed meal entering the off - season of supply and demand, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The key factors include the impact of soybean meal, the outcome of the Canada - China trade negotiation, and the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [8]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Prompt - The current situation of rapeseed meal is neutral. The basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures. The inventory is bullish with zero tons and a 100% year - on - year decrease. The price on the disk is bullish as it is above the 20 - day moving average and rising. The main positions are bullish with an increase in long positions and capital inflow. Overall, it is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [8]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season, leading to a tightening supply expectation in the spot market and a decrease in demand. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been initially ruled in favor, and import margins are being levied. Global rapeseed production has increased, but the Canada - China trade issue has affected the short - term supply in China [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the initial anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, zero rapeseed meal inventory, and the increase in main long positions. Bearish factors are the off - season of domestic aquaculture and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [8][11]. 4. Fundamental Data - The rapeseed supply - demand balance shows changes in harvest area, production, and inventory over the years. The rapeseed meal supply - demand balance also shows trends in production, demand, and inventory. In December, the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased slightly, and the oil mill's rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels. Aquatic product prices are mixed, with fish prices slightly falling and shrimp and shellfish prices stable [16][18][19]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and capital has flowed in [8]. 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has rebounded due to low - level buying. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show short - term rebounds, but the upward space is limited. The mid - term is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, and the future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [42]. 7. Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the growth and harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports, and China's imports and oil mill operations. Secondary factors include domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, as well as oil mill rapeseed meal inventory and downstream procurement. Macro factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict are also to be considered [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2420. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the spot demand in the off - season and low inventory, and uncertainties in China - Canada trade, it will maintain a short - term range - bound pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded with fluctuations, and the spot price followed. The spot premium remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract remained low. The arrival of imported rapeseed increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained low, and the rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained at zero operation. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [18][20][23] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, while the demand is decreasing, suppressing the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and an import deposit of 75.8% was imposed. If the final ruling is established, the deposit will be levied as additional tariffs and will not be refunded, but the final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production increased this year, especially in Canada where the output was higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; no pressure on the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills. - Bearish factors: domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12] 3.4 Fundamental Data - From December 18th to 26th, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 tons, and the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated between 7.46 - 22.56 tons. The average trading price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 574 - 612. - From December 18th to 26th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (near - term 2601) fluctuated between 2389 - 2459, the price of the main contract 2605 fluctuated between 2323 - 2391, and the spot price (Fujian) fluctuated between 2490 - 2560. - From December 17th to 26th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 0 every day [13][15][17] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamental: Rapeseed meal rebounded with fluctuations, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, it is neutral. - Basis: The spot price is 2560, the basis is 169, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, the same as last week. Compared with 2800 tons in the same period last year, it decreased by 100%, which is bullish. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, indicating a bullish signal. - Main positions: The long positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed in, indicating a bullish signal. - Expectation: Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern. With the recent off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, it will maintain a short - term volatile pattern, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The glass market's fundamentals are weak with high inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Although there is an expectation of further cold repair in the industry due to low production profits, the real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the deep - processing industry has issues such as poor fund collection, leading to cautious attitudes among traders and processors [3][6][7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Categories Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract FG2605 last week was 1057 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from the previous week. The spot benchmark price in Hebei Shahe was 920 yuan/ton, down 2.54% from the previous week. The main basis was - 137 yuan/ton, up 41.24% [2][9]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 920 yuan/ton, down 2.54% from the previous week [15]. Fundamentals - Cost and Profit No specific content provided other than the topic of "glass production profit". Fundamentals - Supply - There were 218 operating float glass production lines nationwide last week, with an operating rate of 73.89%. The daily melting capacity was 154,500 tons, both at historically low levels during the same period [21][23]. Fundamentals - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [27]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 58.623 million weight - boxes as of December 25, up 0.11% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely Positive**: There is an expectation of further cold repair in the glass industry due to low production profits [6]. - **Likely Negative**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, with the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises at a historically low level during the same period. The fund collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly consuming the original sheet inventory [7]. Main Logic - The glass supply is at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing plants are dismal, and the glass factory inventory is rising. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward, with the main contract SA2605 closing 2.04% higher than the previous week at 1,200 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. Supply is expected to remain abundant next week, with an estimated weekly output of 720,000 tons and an operating rate of 83% due to fewer maintenance enterprises. Downstream demand is tepid, mainly on a need - by - need basis, and some downstream inventories are high. The market sentiment is weak with insufficient drivers. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased. As of December 25, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,176 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.04%. The low - end price of heavy soda in Shahe increased from 1,125 yuan/ton to 1,135 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.89%. The main base difference increased by 27.45% from - 51 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Price**: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. [13] - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was - 137.40 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 88.50 yuan/ton, at a historical low. [16] - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.65%. The weekly output was 711,900 tons, including 385,600 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy - alkalinity rate was 54.16%. [19][22][25] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons. [26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Output Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - output ratio of soda ash was 108.54%. [29] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 154,500 tons, with an operating rate of 73.89%. [32] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average. [38] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate. [39] 3.6 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems led to production reduction and maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow. [5] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, with large production - launch plans this year, and the industry output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. [6] 3.7 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With low production profits, high inventory, and weak downstream demand, it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1057 yuan/ton, showing a 0.96% increase from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe safety large - board glass is 920 yuan/ton, a 1.29% decrease from the previous value. The main basis is - 137 yuan/ton, with a 19.13% change [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 920 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production profit is low, and there is an expectation of further cold repair in the industry [4]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 218, with an operating rate of 73.89%. The daily melting capacity is 154,500 tons, both at historically low levels in the same period [22][24]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [28][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.623 million weight boxes, a 0.11% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [44]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, showing data such as production, consumption, and net import ratio, as well as their growth rates [45]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Low glass production profit leads to an expectation of further cold repair in the industry [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from glass deep - processing enterprises; poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry and cautious attitudes of traders and processors [4]. Main Logic - With low glass supply, dismal orders from downstream deep - processing factories, and rising glass factory inventories, it is expected that the glass market will mainly show a weak and volatile trend at a low level [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1135元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1200元/吨，基差为-65元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存143.85万吨，较前一周减少4.06%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-29） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：部分煤矿受安全事故影响及年度产能任务完成等因素影响，产量锐减。终端需求疲软，焦 炭仍存看降预期，原料交易情绪普遍不高，中间环节多退市观望，下游焦企考虑利润低位也多刚需采购 为主，焦煤线上竞拍成交率下跌，流拍比继续攀升。目前投机采购较少，下游按日耗采购，焦煤则继续 保持弱稳运行；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1140，基差24.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：下游焦钢企业在微 ...