交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-30） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地煤矿的生产情况不稳定，炼焦煤供应恢复缓慢。受盘面大跌影响，市场情绪有所下滑， 下游焦企考虑自身利润，对高价资源接货意愿有所回落，竞拍成交流拍率有所增加，短期内焦煤继续大 幅上涨动力不足偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1040，基差-80.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：近期钢材价格稳中有涨，焦炭第四轮涨价全面落地，在终端低库存运行状态下，下游仍有继 续补 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong foreign spot prices, rising domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is bearish, the inventory situation is mixed, the market is bullish on the disk, the main position is bearish, and short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply starting to increase, strong foreign spot prices, increasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is - 110 with a spot price of 14900, showing a bearish signal. The inventory situation is mixed, with the SHFE inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increasing week - on - week and year - on - year. The market is bullish on the disk as the price is running above the 20 - day line. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal. Short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is starting to increase [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 29. The US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline [6][8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [14][17]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales and the tire production reaching a new high in the same period, but the tire industry's exports have declined [23][26][29]. - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Basis - The basis weakened on July 29, with a spot price of 14900 and a basis of - 110, showing a bearish signal [4][35]. Multi - empty Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Increasing supply and the non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao area [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判第三轮正在进行，关注谈判进程。郑棉主力09跌破14000关口，郑 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 - Report Type: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes by China, the price rose and then fell. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. - The spot market supply - tightness expectation has improved due to the peak season of domestic aquaculture and the listing of domestic rapeseed, while the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal oscillates and falls back, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventories support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant. The short - term market will maintain range - bound oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed output and the lower - than - expected output in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of oil - mill rapeseed meal [12]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data such as harvest area, output, inventory, and consumption [25][26]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: From July 17th to July 28th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2929 - 2990 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 8.35 - 21.13 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2580 - 2640 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 0 - 99 million tons [14]. - **Inventory Data**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.51 million tons, an increase of 228% week - on - week compared to last week's 0.46 million tons and a decrease of 58.06% year - on - year compared to 3.6 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Import Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly [27]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal increased, and funds flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Viewpoint**: Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate within the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes by China, the price rose and then fell. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. - **Analysis of Influencing Factors**: - **Fundamentals**: Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventories support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2580 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 80, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rapeseed meal is 1.51 million tons, an increase of 228% week - on - week and a decrease of 58.06% year - on - year [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards [9]. - **Main Position**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2509 expected to trade in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton. The port methanol market may experience inventory accumulation, potentially limiting price increases, while the inland market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 show a neutral situation. The port market may see inventory build - up due to delayed imports, while the inland market is in a state of low supply and demand. The base price in Jiangsu indicates a premium for spot over futures. As of July 24, 2025, port inventories decreased, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production, Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventories are at a low level, new acetic acid plants have been put into operation, and there is a continuous expectation of external procurement from CTO plants in the northwest [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic plants like Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production, there is an expected concentration of vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have declined significantly, coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and active sales, and there is inventory accumulation in some production areas [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, prices of some regions such as Fujian and Jiangsu have decreased, while prices in Hebei have increased. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis in Jiangsu has increased, and the import spread has also changed [8][9][11]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory in East and South China ports was 58.71 tons, a decrease of 0.89 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable inventory in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons [4]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in regions such as Northwest, North, East, and Southwest are in a state of maintenance, including planned and unplanned maintenance, as well as production reduction and shutdown situations [55]. - **Foreign plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, while most plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, with some undergoing planned maintenance [56]. - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in normal operation, while some are in a state of maintenance or have uncertain restart times [57].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2509：4100至4200区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡 收跌，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆增产预期压 制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差147，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存642.24万吨，上周657.49万吨，环比增减少2.32%，去年同期611.2万 吨，同比增5.08%。偏空 4.盘面： ...

沥青期货早报 2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年7月份国内沥青总计划排产量为253.9万吨，环比增幅5.9%, 同比增幅23.4%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.9204%，环比减少3.36个百分 点，全国样本企业出货26.9万吨，环比增加8.03%,样本企业产量为51.6万吨，环比减少 9.79%,样本企业装置检修量预估为64.2万吨，环比增加11.85%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.8%，环比减少0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The fuel oil market is expected to be neutral in terms of fundamentals, with a short - term outlook of strong performance. The FU2509 is expected to trade in the 2890 - 2930 range, and the LU2510 is expected to trade in the 3600 - 3640 range [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fuel oil market's fundamentals are neutral, with the spot window stabilizing. High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - surplus and weak demand in the utility sector. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The inventory decreased in the week of July 23. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are mostly short. The market is expected to be strong in the short - term due to news of US sanctions on Russia [3] 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Summer power generation demand is expected to increase [3][4] - **Likely to Fall**: Demand optimism needs verification, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia [4] 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: Market may be briefly weak, but the spot window is stable. August's arbitrage shipments from the West to Singapore are expected to decrease. High - sulfur fuel oil has supply surplus and weak utility demand in summer; neutral [3] - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 403.25 dollars/ton with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is at 506.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 172 yuan/ton. The spot price is higher than the futures price; bullish [3] - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of July 23 was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels; bullish [3] - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [3] - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, low - sulfur main positions are short and decreasing; bearish [3] 5. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific content on spread data [2] Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on July 23 was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels. The inventory has shown a downward trend recently [3][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand was persistently low, and the market was affected by factors such as high inventories and weak cost - support during the flood season. It is expected to oscillate between 8735 - 9095 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continued to increase, demand showed some recovery but might be weak later, and cost support remained stable. It is expected to oscillate between 48190 - 50620 [9][11][12]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors like cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week, with continued low demand. Polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy ingot inventories were at high levels [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - permeated 553 was 2,027 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the flood season [6]. - Basis: On July 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeated silicon in East China was 9,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 785 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; and major port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, demand recovery was at a low level, cost support increased slightly, and it is expected to oscillate between 8735 - 9095 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week, and the estimated production scheduling for July was 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.2GW, a 0.90% increase; battery cell and component production showed different trends in production and inventory changes. Overall, demand showed some recovery but might be weak later [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry was 36,170 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 9,330 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 28, the price of N - type dense materials was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2905 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [13]. - Expectation: It is expected to oscillate between 48190 - 50620 [12]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: Futures contract prices generally declined. For example, the 09 contract price decreased from 9,725 yuan/ton to 8,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33%. Spot prices of different types of silicon also showed declines [19]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased, sample enterprise inventory increased, and major port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - Basis: The basis of some contracts changed, with the 09 contract basis at 785 yuan/ton on July 28 [6]. Polysilicon - Price: Futures contract prices decreased, and prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different changes. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers increased by 4.55% [21]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory decreased, and domestic and European component inventories also decreased [21]. - Basis: The basis of the 09 contract was - 2905 yuan/ton on July 28 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being a prominent issue. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [8][11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans for production cuts and a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile and lithium spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources with limited decline and the lack of willingness of power battery manufacturers to take delivery [9][10]. - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,720 - 74,520 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,630 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.53%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.17% week - on - week, while that of ternary materials increased by 1.40%. The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 0.39% day - on - week, with a production profit of 1,459 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica increased by 0.60% day - on - week, resulting in a loss of 6,730 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production enthusiasm [8]. - **Basis**: On July 28, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 780 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was 143,170 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters decreased by 4.57% week - on - week, lower than the historical average, while the downstream inventory increased by 3.74%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main players decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June was 17,698 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's import volume will be 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The price of 6% spodumene CIF decreased day - on - day, lower than the historical average, and the degree of over - supply has increased. The price of lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,720 - 74,520 [8]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate decreased by 0.80% to 62.2%. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.40% to 71,376 yuan/ton, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89% to 19,750 yuan/ton. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25% to 427,626 tons, and the import volume from Australia decreased by 31.20% to 255,506 tons [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3.70% to 56%, and the monthly production increased by 2.09% to 229,900 tons. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.24% to 285,400 tons, and the monthly export increased by 115.75% to 2,031,541 kg. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 1.93% to 58,200 GWh [17]. - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 143,170 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.39%. The inventory of smelters decreased by 4.57% to 55,385 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3.74% to 42,815 tons [17].