Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals are bearish. Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and demand is below the historical average due to the off - season. The cost support may weaken in the short term due to the weakening of crude oil. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2602 will fluctuate between 2967 - 3023 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the downward trend of overall demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - **Supply**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production was 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 3.955 percentage points. The shipment volume of national sample enterprises was 271810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.17%. The output of sample enterprises was 553000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.55%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 951000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and the pressure may continue next week [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 7.1022%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 20%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 384.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 655.87 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25.47%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On December 26, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 75 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 741000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78%; the in - plant inventory was 597000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 470000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.07%. All types of inventory are accumulating [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory remains stable. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2602 will fluctuate between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [18]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2025 [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025 [26][27]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [33]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [35]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The report shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [39]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [44]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production**: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 - 2025 [60]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [63][64]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [70]. - **Import and Export Analysis** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [73]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread**: The report shows the historical price spread of Korean asphalt imports from 2020 - 2025 [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [82]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [89][91]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report shows the historical construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream construction (including shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [94][97][99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt in 2024 and 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and various inventory data [104].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本 周样本企业产能利用率为77.23%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量33.874万 吨，环比增加0.97%,乙烯法企业产量13.681万吨，环比减少2.94%；本周供给压力有 所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.52%，环比减少0.86个百分点，高于历史平均水 平；下游型材开工率为30.57%，环比减少0.85个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管 材开工率为36.2%，环比减少1.4个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为 66.79%，环比减少0.34个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开工率为80.75%， 环比减少0.60个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC出口价格价 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-29原油早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2602： 1.基本面：特朗普和泽连斯基在联合新闻发布会上表示，美-乌安全协议已接近达成一致，但特朗普表 示，仍有一些涉及领土的"棘手问题"必须解决；位知情克里姆林宫的人士透露，俄方将要求对美乌拟 定的这份和平方案作出关键性修改，其中包括对乌克兰军方施加更多限制条款；伊拉克中央政府、库 尔德自治区政府及国际石油公司已同意将石油出口协议延长至明年3月31日；中性 2.基差：12月26日，阿曼原油现货价为62.75美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为61.55美元/桶，基差 11.7元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, cotton prices accelerated their rise, with more people following the trend and entering the market, quickly driving up the market price [4]. - In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be reduced by over 10% [4][5]. - According to the ICAC November report, the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 25.4 million tons, and consumption is 25 million tons. According to the USDA November report, the production is 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.532 million tons [4]. - In November, China's textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and 25% respectively [4]. - According to the Ministry of Agriculture in December, for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - The factors driving the current rebound include a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, an increase in downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, and a significant reduction in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton due to policy regulation. The short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it is expected to continue the volatile upward trend, with possible corrections after a rapid rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, cotton prices accelerated their rise. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton in 2026 is expected to be reduced by over 10%. There are multiple factors influencing the market, including changes in export tariffs, downstream inventory replenishment, and policy - related planting area adjustments [4] 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors: The expected reduction of over 10% in the 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting area, downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period [5] - Bearish factors: A decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional consumption off - season [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: The total global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.081 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons compared to the previous forecast; consumption is 25.873 million tons; imports are 9.522 million tons; exports are 9.524 million tons; and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [10][11] - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [13] - **China Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, for the 2025/2026 season, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4] 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Sugar Weekly Report (12.22 - 12.26) - **Report Author**: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - This week, sugar prices rebounded after hitting a low. The main contract 05 has strong support around 5000 and has accelerated its rebound back above 5200. It is expected to consolidate briefly and oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [4][5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, an expected surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the decline of international sugar prices to around 15 cents per pound, and increased import pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices hit a low and rebounded. The main contract 05 has strong support around 5000, and international sugar prices have also rebounded above 15 cents [4]. - In the 2025/2026 season, different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance. ISO expects a surplus of 1630000 tons, DATAGRO has revised the surplus forecast down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons, Czarnikow has raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons, and StoneX expects a surplus of 3.7 million tons [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/2026 season in China was 883000 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 91600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90000 tons, and imported 114400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 108200 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The main contract 05 of sugar has accelerated its rebound and returned above 5200. It is a repair of the previous rapid decline. It may consolidate briefly at the current level and is expected to oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [5]. - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, an expected surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the decline of international sugar prices to around 15 cents per pound, and increased import pressure [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 2025/2026 season. StoneX expects a surplus of 3.7 million tons, ISO expects a surplus of 1630000 tons, and Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons [31]. - From 2023/2024 to 2025/2026, China's sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and other data are presented. In 2025/2026, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, with a surplus change of 820000 tons [33]. - The import cost of raw sugar processed and完税 (50% tariff) is provided. In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5086 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为22161吨，环比增长0.52%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为100885吨，环比减少1.35%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18002 吨，环比减少0.49%。 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月29日 目 录 1 每日观点 供给端，2025年11月碳酸锂产量为95350实物吨，预测下月产量为98210实物吨，环比增加3.00%,2025年11月碳 酸锂进口量为22055实物吨，预测下月进口量为27000实物吨，环比增加22.42%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强 化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同期平均水平，需求主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased but remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8780 - 8980 [4]. - For polysilicon, the short - term production schedule on the supply side has decreased and is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows a continuous decline in production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. Overall demand is in a continuous recession, and cost support is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 57850 - 60060 [10]. - The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [14][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 87,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13% [4]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 77,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.93%, and demand remained sluggish [4]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory was 303,000 tons, at a high level; silicone inventory was 43,900 tons, at a low level; aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, at a high level [4]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [4]. - Basis: On December 26, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 320 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [4]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [4]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 25,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%. The production schedule for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.33GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%, and the inventory was 216,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.88%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedules of battery cells and components in December also show a downward trend [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On December 26, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6555 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 303,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%, at a high level in the same period of history [12]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [12]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [12]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of some contracts increased, with increases ranging from 0.40% - 1.02%. Some basis values decreased, and the registered warehouse receipt number increased by 1.81% [18]. - The weekly DMC production decreased by 6.10%, and the daily DMC price remained unchanged. The daily silicone oil price increased by 0.99% [18]. - The monthly DMC inventory decreased by 22.02%, and the monthly production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 8.66%, while the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74% [18]. - The weekly social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.36%, and the weekly sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.61% [18]. Polysilicon - The prices of some polysilicon contracts decreased, with decreases ranging from 1.36% - 2.97%. The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74%, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% [20]. - The monthly production of photovoltaic cells decreased by 6.18%, and the monthly production of components decreased by 2.49% [20]. - The domestic inventory of components decreased by 51.73%, and the European inventory decreased by 6.50% [20]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price and Basis Trends**: The price trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the basis trends of their main contracts, are presented through charts [22][25]. - **Inventory Trends**: The inventory trends of industrial silicon, including warehouse and port inventories, and sample enterprise inventories, are shown [28]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: The production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, including sample enterprise weekly production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise start - up rates, are presented [32]. - **Cost Trends**: The cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, including cost and profit trends in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang, are shown [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon are provided, showing supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations [41][70]. - **Downstream Trends**: The price, production, inventory, and supply - demand trends of industrial silicon's downstream industries, including silicone, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, are presented in detail [47][57][67].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉 花进口12万吨，同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产 量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $56.93 per barrel, up 0.69% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $60.33 per barrel, up 0.35% for the week; China's SC crude futures closed at 432.6 yuan per barrel, up 1.41% for the week [6]. - The market's sensitivity to "tail risks on the supply side" has increased recently, but different risks have different impacts. The military strike in northwestern Nigeria is more of a geopolitical noise, while the economic pressure on Venezuelan crude is more likely to affect the actual flow of oil. Other export disturbances in oil - producing countries will also affect the term structure of the market [7]. - The discussion of the peace proposal between Russia and Ukraine is a "directional binary variable." If the negotiation progresses and sanctions are expected to be relaxed, the medium - term center of Brent crude may move down; otherwise, the risk premium will not fully subside [7]. - Due to the approaching New Year's Day, there will be no major macro - data releases, and the global financial market will remain in a state of extremely low liquidity. Oil prices mainly depend on geopolitical situations. Without new conflicts, they are likely to fluctuate [8]. - For trading, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 425 - 450, and long - term investors should wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $56.93 per barrel, up 0.69% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $60.33 per barrel, up 0.35% for the week; China's SC crude futures closed at 432.6 yuan per barrel, up 1.41% for the week [6]. - The US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers and the possible conflict between the US and Venezuela, as well as the uncertainty in the Russia - Ukraine situation, initially supported oil prices. However, the statement of the Ukrainian President at the end of the week reduced geopolitical concerns and caused oil prices to fall [6]. - The Israeli military's air strikes in Lebanon and the relevant remarks from Iran also added geopolitical risks [6]. - The Ukrainian President plans to meet with the US President to discuss ending the military action in Ukraine, including issues such as the future of the Donbass region and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant [7]. 3.2 Related News - The market's sensitivity to "tail risks on the supply side" has increased, but different risks have different impacts. The military strike in northwestern Nigeria is short - term noise, while the economic pressure on Venezuelan crude may cause regional shortages of light and medium - quality crude oil. Other export disturbances in oil - producing countries will affect the term structure of the market [7]. - The discussion of the peace proposal between Russia and Ukraine is a "directional binary variable" that affects the medium - term trend of oil prices [7]. 3.3 Outlook - Due to the approaching New Year's Day, there will be no major macro - data releases, and the global financial market will remain in a state of extremely low liquidity. Oil prices mainly depend on geopolitical situations. Without new conflicts, they are likely to fluctuate [8]. - For trading, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 425 - 450, and long - term investors should wait and see [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot prices of various crude oil varieties increased last week. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd rose from $61.22 to $63.26, with a increase of 3.33% [12]. - The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory have fluctuated in recent months. For example, the Cushing inventory decreased by 74.2 million barrels on December 12 compared to the previous period [14]. 3.5持仓数据 - As of the week of December 16, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 74,876 contracts to 32,940 contracts; the speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased by 3,537 contracts to 54,896 contracts [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell, and fuel oil prices moved in tandem. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,484 yuan/ton, up 3.93% for the week, while low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,999 yuan/ton, up 2.92% for the week [5]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil remains at the current level, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market still has some support. The Singapore market is expected to receive a stable supply of low - sulfur fuel oil blending components in the next few weeks, increasing local inventories. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to have sufficient supply from January to possibly February. The downstream marine fuel sales continue to strengthen, supporting the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market, but competition from clean alternative fuels and sufficient supply of sanctioned cargoes will pressure the market [5]. - Crude oil prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, and fuel oil prices are expected to follow suit. For high - sulfur fuel oil, short - term operations are recommended in the range of 2,350 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, short - term operations are recommended in the range of 2,900 - 3,050 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints - Crude oil and fuel oil prices moved in tandem last week. High - sulfur fuel oil had a weekly increase of 3.93% to 2,484 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2.92% to 2,999 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur market will have sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market has some support but also faces pressure. Crude oil prices will range - bound, and fuel oil prices will follow. Short - term operation ranges are given for high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The FU main contract rose from 2,416 to 2,480, an increase of 64 or 2.65%. The LU main contract rose from 2,927 to 3,000, an increase of 73 or 2.49% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Among various spot prices, the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 6.00 to 460.00, a rise of 1.32%. Singapore diesel increased by 8.72 to 579.94, a rise of 1.53%. Other prices remained unchanged or decreased slightly [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Fuel Oil Consumption**: Graphs show the fuel oil consumption in Singapore, China, and the coking profit margin of Shandong fuel oil from 2021 - 2025 [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: From October 8 to December 17, the inventory showed fluctuations. For example, on October 8, it was 2,061.9 million barrels with a decrease of 164 million barrels compared to the previous period, and on December 17, it was 2,255.9 million barrels with an increase of 14 million barrels [11]. 3.5 Spread Data - A graph shows the high - and low - sulfur futures spread [15].