交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%,同比 增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为37.0326%，环比减少1.14个百分点，全国样 本企业出货22.13万吨，环比减少29.38%,样本企业产量为61.8万吨，环比减少2.98%,样本企业 装置检修量预估为62.5万吨，环比增加1.96%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减 少供给压力。 3 4 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 昨日行情概览 | 类 | 指 | 标 | 值 | 前 | 值 | 涨跌幅 | 类 | 指 | 标 | 值 | 前 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 白糖早报——2025年10月14日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年8月中国进口食糖83万吨，同比增加6万吨；进口糖 浆及预混粉等三项合计11.55万吨，同比减少15.57万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货58 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][10][13]. - It is expected that in the next month, the supply of lithium carbonate will increase, with the production volume forecasted to rise by 3.01% and the import volume by 10.00%, while the demand will strengthen and inventory may decrease [9]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,280 - 73,280 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the forecast for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and the forecast for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% increase [8][9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of the iron phosphate lithium sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of the ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8][9]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 73,403 yuan/ton, a 0.90% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of 1,368 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 76,101 yuan/ton, a 1.34% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of 6,050 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Comprehensive Evaluation**: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish [8][10]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a week - on - week decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and related products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.61% to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene (6%) price decreased by 1.19% to 829 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, export, and inventory data of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, the monthly production increased, the monthly export decreased, and the total weekly inventory decreased by 1.48% to 134,801 tons [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years, and the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also changed. For example, the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines in 2025 showed different levels in different months [25]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated over time [25]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the total weekly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend in some periods [31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) showed different trends. For example, the total monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased in some periods [40]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [42]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide produced from different materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica was in a loss state [45]. - **Processing and Recycling Costs**: The processing costs of different materials and the cost - profit of recycling production also showed different trends [48]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) showed different trends. For example, the total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased [53]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) also showed different trends [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased [57]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost and price of lithium battery cells also showed different trends [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary precursors of different series showed different levels [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price and cost - profit of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary materials of different series showed different levels [68]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price and cost - profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. For example, the price of power - type iron phosphate lithium showed different levels [72]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends [75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased [80]. - **Penetration Rate and Zero - Batch Ratio**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the zero - batch ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles also showed different trends [81][84].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-10-14 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 豆粕M2601：2900至2960区间震荡 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 4.国内油厂豆粕库存继续回升，美国大豆产区天气炒作可能性仍存和中 美关税战变数影响，豆粕短期维持震荡，等待美国大豆产量明确和中美关税 战后续进一步指引。 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，油脂反弹带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口附近震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕窄幅震荡，短期技术性 震荡整理，十月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面，短期或回归震荡格 局。中性 2.基差：现货2910（华东），基差-22，贴水期货。偏空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-14甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：国内甲醇市场区域表现。内地走跌明显，虽内蒙烯烃继续外采，但节后企业库存充裕下，供方让利出货。 且港口部分进口货源倒流内地，销区心态偏空。港口受制裁消息面带动，且期货尾盘上扬带动，港口现货小幅坚挺，基 差维持走强趋势。短期国内市场预期将窄幅调整；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2320元/吨，01合约基差-22，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：截至2025年10月9日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为127.30万吨，较节前累库0.49万吨；沿海地区（江 苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源增加5.99万吨至94.05万吨；偏 ...

不锈钢 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落，20均线下震荡运行。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿 山挺价，部分地区有地震，但对开采影响有限。镍铁价格弱稳，成本线坚挺，镍铁企业仍然亏损。不锈 钢库存国庆期间回升。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对镍需求提升有限。中 长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122450，基差1040，偏多 3、库存：LME库存242094，+4716，上交所仓单25272，+44，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：宽幅震荡思路，逢高仍可试空。 1、基本面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [4][9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is expected to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 23-year full latex (non-delivery) decreased on October 13th. The spot price is 14,250, and the basis is -690, showing a bearish signal. The spot price is resistant to decline [4][8][6] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has recently decreased, and the Qingdao area inventory has decreased week-on-week but increased year-on-year. The Qingdao area inventory has shown small changes recently [4][14][17] - **Import**: The import quantity has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high. Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [6][23][29] Multi-Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti-involution in the domestic market [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6] Basis - The basis weakened on October 13th [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Steel billet prices are slightly adjusted, steel trading is average, and there is a possibility of expanded maintenance due to poor profits, leading to cautious procurement by enterprises. However, high pig iron production supports coking coal demand during the peak season, with most enterprises purchasing as needed. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to be weakly stable [2]. - **Coke**: Steel mills maintain high pig iron production, and coke enterprises can maintain stable operation with current profit levels. But steel prices are volatile, pig iron production has peaked and declined, weakening the bullish sentiment in the market. Additionally, the sales pressure of steel products restricts the upward momentum of coke prices. Short - term coke prices are expected to remain stable [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines have slightly fluctuating production, but the overall supply pattern remains unchanged. Coking and steel enterprises purchase as needed, and intermediate speculative traders' purchasing enthusiasm has slowed down. New coal mine orders have decreased, and the online auction sentiment has weakened, with some coal prices falling and coal mine quotations slightly adjusted. However, the inventory pressure of coking coal in coal mines is small, remaining at a medium - low level, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1260, and the basis is 114, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, and the long position has increased [3]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising pig iron production and limited supply growth; bearish factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: With the price adjustment of some coking coal at the raw material end and the first - round price increase of coke, the profit of coking enterprises has slightly recovered. Currently, coking enterprises' profits are mostly on the verge of profit and loss, with stable operation and low inventory, but there is a lack of confidence in further price increases [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1610, and the basis is - 32.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position has increased [8]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising pig iron production and increasing blast furnace operating rates; bearish factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [10]. Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: On October 13 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing changes [11]. - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On October 13 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports, with different grades and from different origins, are provided, with some prices rising [12]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [27]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [32]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [45]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [49].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-10-14） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价831，基差27；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价846，基差41，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14641.08万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多增；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-14 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：中美贸易摩擦或升温；近期沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升 温，供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1148元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1179元/吨，基差为-31元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：宏观利空叠加玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 2、风险点： "反内卷 ...