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大越期货PVC期货早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:17
大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月29日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看,据隆众统计,2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨,环比减少1.40%;本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.79%,环比减少0.01个百分点;电石法企业产量33.834万吨,环比减少0.58%,乙烯法企业产 量11.319万吨,环比减少2.32%;本周供给压力有所减少;下周预计检修有所减少,预计排产增加幅度 可观。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为41.88%,环比增加.77个百分点,低于历史平均水平;下游型材开工率 为38%,环比增加.45个百分点,低于历史平均水平;下游管材开工率为32.52%,环比减少1.23个百分 点,低于历史平均水平;下 ...
大越期货原油早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight news shows that US President Trump plans to shorten the exemption period for Russia, increasing market expectations of new sanctions on Russian energy exports, leading to a generally strong performance of oil prices. The OPEC+ production cut supervision meeting did not give any suggestions, and the production in September will be decided at the weekend meeting of core oil-producing countries. Meanwhile, China-US trade negotiations have begun, and the exemption period may be further extended. In the short term, multiple positive factors are stimulating oil prices to run strongly. The short-term trading range is between 512 and 520, and long-term investors are advised to hold a small number of long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental factors: US and Chinese senior economic officials held over five hours of talks in Stockholm to resolve long - standing core economic disputes and seek to extend the trade truce by three months; Trump set a new deadline of 10 or 12 days for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war; the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) emphasized full compliance with oil production agreements, and eight member countries will hold a separate meeting on Sunday to decide whether to increase oil production in September, which is considered neutral [3]. - Basis: On July 28, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $71.50 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.49 per barrel. The basis was 19.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is considered bullish [3]. - Inventory: For the week ending July 18 in the US, the API crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels (expected decrease of 646,000 barrels); the EIA inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels); the Cushing area inventory increased by 455,000 barrels (previous increase of 213,000 barrels). As of July 28, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.249 million barrels, an increase of 723,000 barrels, which is considered bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the moving average, which is considered neutral [3]. - Main positions: As of July 15, the main positions in WTI crude oil were long positions, with a decrease in long positions; as of July 15, the main positions in Brent crude oil were long positions, with an increase in long positions, which is considered neutral [3]. - Expectation: Short - term trading range is between 512 and 520, and long - term investors are advised to hold a small number of long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump expressed disappointment with Russian President Putin and is shortening the 50 - day deadline for Russia to reach an agreement with Ukraine to about 10 - 12 days, threatening "secondary sanctions" on Russia. This statement pushed international crude oil futures to rise during Monday's trading session. US WTI crude oil rose to $67.06, up more than 2.9% on the day, and Brent crude oil rose to $70.35, up nearly 2.8% on the day [5]. - US and Chinese senior economic officials held talks in Stockholm, aiming to resolve long - standing core economic disputes and extend the trade truce by three months. Trade analysts believe that the tariff and export control truce reached in mid - May is likely to be extended by 90 days [5]. - Trump's remarks about firing the Fed Chairman Powell and his request to visit the renovation project of the Fed headquarters have attracted attention. Powell will hold a press conference on Thursday morning. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is not of high importance for the economy and interest rate decisions. The market generally expects no change in the benchmark interest rate [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand [6]. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it depends on the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil rose from $67.66 to $69.32, an increase of 2.45%; WTI crude oil rose from $65.16 to $66.71, an increase of 2.38%; SC crude oil decreased from 508.6 to 505.5, a decrease of 0.61%; Oman crude oil decreased from $71.91 to $71.28, a decrease of 0.88% [7]. - Spot market: The price of UK Brent Dtd rose from $69.67 to $70.41, an increase of 1.06%; WTI crude oil rose from $65.16 to $66.71, an increase of 2.38%; Oman crude oil decreased from $71.96 to $71.50, a decrease of 0.64%; Shengli crude oil decreased from $67.66 to $67.07, a decrease of 0.87%; Dubai crude oil decreased from $71.87 to $71.21, a decrease of 0.92% [9]. - API inventory: As of July 18, the API inventory was 45.4388 million barrels, a decrease of 577,000 barrels [10]. - EIA inventory: As of July 18, the EIA inventory was 41.8993 million barrels, a decrease of 3.169 million barrels [12]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil fund net long positions: As of July 22, the net long position was 153,331, a decrease of 9,096 from the previous period [14]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions: As of July 22, relevant data shows changes in net long positions, and as of July 15, the net long position was 238,745, an increase of 16,398 from the previous period [17].
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:59
Report Overview - The report is a Polyolefin Morning Report dated July 29, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, due to cost support, macro - policy push, but weak demand, the market is expected to oscillate today [4][6] - For PP, with cost support and macro - policy push, yet weak demand, it is also expected to show an oscillating trend today [7][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a stable - growth plan. The downstream demand is weak, and the current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7370 (+0), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, considered neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), a bearish factor [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand, it is expected to oscillate today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and macro - policy push; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [6] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI and Caixin PMI showed certain trends. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high temperature and heavy rain. The current PP delivery spot price is 7150 (-50), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 20, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), a bearish factor [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, it is expected to oscillate today [7] - **Factors**: Bullish factors are cost support and macro - policy push; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [8] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7370 (+0), the 09 - contract price is 7335 (-121), the basis is 35, and the PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4) [4][9] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7150 (-50), the 09 - contract price is 7130 (-91), the basis is 20, and the PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5) [7][9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. showed different trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. changed over time. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 [16]
大越期货锰硅早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:52
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-29锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证号:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2509: 2 1.基本面:近期焦煤、锰矿价格走高导致成本端支撑变强。双重因素支撑下,北方工厂报价坚挺,利润逐渐修复。南方工 厂对盘面带动现货情况仍持观望态度,成本倒挂情况减少。从宏观上看,"反内卷"政策实施初期,整个宏观情绪短期较 为积极,对现货价格上涨有利好支撑。预计本周硅锰现货价格小幅探长;中性。 2.基差:现货价5950元/吨,09合约基差-78元/吨,现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存:全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨;全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面:MA20向上,09合约期价收于MA20上方。偏多。 5.主力持仓:主力持仓净空,空减。偏空。 6.预期:预 ...
大越期货贵金属早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:52
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号: F3051846 投资咨询证号: Z0015764 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面:市场等待贸易协定最终日,金价震荡回落;美国三大股指收盘涨跌不 一,欧洲主要股指收盘全线下跌;美债收益率涨跌不一,10年期美债收益率跌0.99 个基点报4.388%;美元指数涨1.02%报98.66,离岸人民币对美元贬值报7.1835; COMEX黄金期货跌0.65%报3314.00美元/盎司;中性 6、预期:今日关注中美经贸会谈、欧央行CPI预期、美国6月职位空缺、6月房价指 数。美欧贸易协定达成,但协定内容不及预期乐观,国内商品情绪大幅降温,金价 震荡。沪金溢价扩大至1.4元/克。关注本周贸易协定进展,降息预期依旧高涨,金 价震荡。 2、基差:黄金期货774.78,现货771.58,基差- ...
大越期货螺卷早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For螺纹**: The demand shows no improvement, inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory situation and price on the 20 - day line, but a net - short position of the main contract (with short positions decreasing), it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation considering the weak real - estate market, cooling demand and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - **For热卷**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role. With a positive basis, inventory situation and price on the 20 - day line, but a net - short position of the main contract (with short positions decreasing), it is also expected to be in a high - level oscillation due to the weakening market supply - demand, blocked exports and domestic capacity - reduction plans [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **螺纹** - **Fundamentals**: Demand is poor, inventory is low and slightly decreasing, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of螺纹 is 3400, and the basis is 152, which is positive [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 372.97 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is positive [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of螺纹 is net - short, and short positions are decreasing, which is negative [2]. - **Likely Factors**: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations are positive; the continued downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand are negative [2][3]. **热卷** - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, with domestic policies potentially playing a role, being neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of热卷 is 3460, and the basis is 63, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 267.16 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [6]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is positive [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of热卷 is net - short, and short positions are decreasing, which is negative [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations are positive; the entry of downstream demand into the seasonal off - season and pessimistic expectations are negative [6][7][8].
沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:50
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资:F3023048 投资咨询证:Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面:外盘20均线上下震荡运行。现货下游观望情绪升温,成交清淡,主要影响来自反内卷。产 业链上,矿价小幅回落,海运费由于运力不足继续坚挺,镍铁价格有一定启稳,成本线慢慢回升。不锈 钢7、8月是传统消费淡季,本周库存继续回落。新能源汽车产销数据较好,有利于镍的需求提升。中长 线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差:现货123200,基差1580,偏多 3、库存:LME库存204036,+114,上交所仓单21953,+6,偏空 4、盘面:收盘价收于20均线以上,20均线向上,偏多 5、主力持仓:主力持仓净空,空增,偏空 6、结论:沪镍2509:20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面:现货不 ...
大越期货沪铜早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:47
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with stable manufacturing sentiment, a neutral basis, and mixed signals from inventory, price trends, and主力持仓. The copper price is expected to undergo a volatile adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79100, with a basis of 100, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 28, copper inventory decreased by 1075 to 127400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [3]. - **Price Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, indicating a bearish trend [3]. - **主力持仓**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, suggesting a bullish trend [3]. - **Expectation**: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will experience a volatile adjustment [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: No specific information provided - **利空**: No specific information provided - **Logic**: Domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [4] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [23]. Other Information - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [15]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are declining [17]
焦煤焦炭早报(2025-7-29)-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:47
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报(2025-7-29) 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤: 1、基本面:煤矿产量仍受到不同因素影响,供应量有小幅缩减。受焦钢企业刚性采购需求支撑以及投 机需求释放,坑口出货顺利,煤矿签单顺畅,产地库存整体消耗至中低位水平,但市场情绪有所降温, 对高价资源接货意愿有所回落,观望情绪渐起;偏多 2、基差:现货市场价1040,基差-60.5;现货贴水期货;偏空 3、库存:钢厂库存791.1万吨,港口库存321.5万吨,独立焦企库存790.2万吨,总样本库存1902.8万吨, 较上周增加45.9万吨;偏空 6、预期:多地钢厂接涨焦炭第四轮提价,下游焦企多延续补库热情,刚需补库需求仍支撑炼焦煤价格 稳中偏强运行,但考虑终端需求及利润压制,继续上行空间有限,预计短期焦 ...
大越期货天胶早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with strong foreign spot prices and rising domestic inventories. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market is mainly driven by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution; negative factors are increasing supply and the non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is 35 with a spot price of 15100, also neutral [4]. - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, being neutral [4]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish trend [4]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high [6]. - **Spot Price** - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 28 [8]. - The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is provided [11]. - **Inventory** - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14]. - The inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly recently [17]. - **Import** - The import volume has decreased seasonally [20]. - **Downstream Consumption** - Automobile production and sales have increased seasonally [23][26]. - Tire production has reached a new high in the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 3.3 Basis - The basis strengthened on July 28 [35]. 3.4 Multi - Empty Factors - **Positive Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resistant spot prices [6]. - Domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Negative Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6].