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大越期货贵金属早报-20251229
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 01:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the Chicago Exchange raised margins, causing the gold price to fall in the morning. The silver price increase pushed up the gold price, but the gold price followed the silver price down. The overseas Christmas holiday may still lead to abnormal price surges, and the low gold - silver ratio provides support for the gold price. The Shanghai gold premium has expanded to - 5 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, during the Christmas holiday, the domestic silver price continued to rise significantly. The news of the Chicago Exchange raising margins led to a sharp drop in the silver price in the morning. Historically, such margin hikes have caused significant silver price drops. The overseas silver price has started to fall after breaking through the 80 - dollar mark, while the Shanghai silver price may still冲击 the 20,000 - mark, with large fluctuations expected today, so cautious operation is advised. The Shanghai silver premium has continued to expand to 1,800 yuan/gram [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The Chicago Exchange raised margins, the U.S. three major stock indexes closed slightly lower, most U.S. bond yields declined (10 - year U.S. bond yield fell 0.78 basis points to 4.128%), the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.03, the on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed at 7.0063 at night, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.31% to $4,562.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold in macro - environment, COMEX silver futures rose 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today's focus includes the summary of Japan's monetary policy opinions, the U.S. November existing - home sales, China's December regular press conference of CCPIT, the U.S. November pending home sales index, and the U.S. December Dallas Fed business activity index [4][14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.17 (spot at a discount to futures, bearish); the inventory of gold futures warrants is 93,711 kg, unchanged (bearish) [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is + 181 (spot at a premium to futures, neutral); the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 852,417 kg, a decrease of 29,532 kg (bullish) [5]. 3.4. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net long position increased [5]. 3.5. Logic Analysis - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. Recent Fed rate - cuts and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks have both positive and negative impacts, and with liquidity concerns, the upward momentum of the gold price exists but is limited [9]. - **Silver**: It mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the price increase may expand [12]. 3.6. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Gold** - **Bullish**: The world is in turmoil with existing risk - aversion sentiment; there is still an expectation of Fed rate - cuts; inflation concerns remain; the low gold - silver ratio provides support [4]. - **Bearish**: The Chicago Exchange raised margins; the basis shows the spot at a discount to futures; the inventory remains unchanged [4]. - **Silver** - **Bullish**: Global turmoil with risk - aversion sentiment; the expectation of Fed rate - cuts; inflation concerns; support from non - ferrous metal tariffs; support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors; low spot inventory and active supply - shortage game [13]. - **Bearish**: The Chicago Exchange raised margins; the Fed's internal division may lead to a pause in rate - cuts; the European fiscal expansion is less than expected; the risk preference deteriorates again; the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks; the limited possibility of short - squeezing due to no obvious supply shortage [13].
大越期货燃料油早报-20251229
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 01:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to sufficient supply and sluggish downstream bunkering activities during the year - end holiday season [3]. - As of the week of December 22, the petroleum product inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 0.9%, with the increase in gasoline and other light fuel oil inventories offsetting the decline in heavy and medium fuel oil inventories [3]. - The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of December 17 was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [3]. - The prices of fuel oil are above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil main position is long, with long positions decreasing; the low - sulfur fuel oil main position is long, with long positions increasing [3]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the continuous attacks on energy facilities support the prices of the crude oil sector. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure will remain at the current level, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market still has support. In the short term, it will operate in a volatile manner. FU2603 will operate in the range of 2470 - 2510, and LU2603 will operate in the range of 2980 - 3030 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory increased in the week of December 17. The prices are above the 20 - day line, and the main positions of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are long with different trends. In the short term, it will operate in a volatile manner [3]. - The futures prices of FU and LU main contracts increased slightly, while the basis of FU decreased by 193.13% and that of LU decreased by 54.47% [5]. - Among the daily spot prices, the price of舟山 low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.32%, the price of中东 high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.51%, and the price of Singapore diesel increased by 1.53% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors include Russia's fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. - The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamentals are neutral. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, the inventory in Fujairah, UAE has changed, the basis is in a flat - water state, the inventory in Singapore has increased, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main positions of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are long with different trends [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - No detailed analysis provided in the report, only a graph of high - and low - sulfur futures spreads (FU - LU) is shown [11] 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory data from October 8 to December 17 is presented. For example, on October 8, the inventory was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels compared to the previous period; on December 17, it was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels compared to the previous period [8]
沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251229
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 01:44
重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面:上周镍价大幅上涨,印尼配额问题引发原料供应担扰。近期部分产能减产,供应压力减轻。 产业链上,镍矿价格部分小幅回落,海运费下降,矿库存高位,随着雨季来临矿供应有所减少,矿山 挺价。镍铁价格反弹,成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落,短期受镍价影响。精炼镍库存持续高位,过剩 格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好,但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差:现货129700,基差2950,偏多 3、库存:LME库存255696,休市,上交所仓单37527,-300,偏空 4、盘面:收盘价收于20均线以上,20均线向上,偏多 5、主力持仓:主力持仓净空,空增,偏空 6、结论:沪镍2602:短线强势,空头观望,回到前期箱体再试空。 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资:F3023048 投资咨询证:Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85 ...
大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20251229
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 01:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, last week there were more changes in PTA plants, but the downstream polyester load also decreased. The supply - demand pattern of PTA itself changed little. The futures market followed the cost side to rise significantly. The spot basis loosened. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the changes of upstream and downstream plants [6]. - For MEG, last week the entry of ethylene glycol ships into tanks was smooth. It is expected that the visible inventory will still increase at the beginning of next week. Fundamentally, ethylene glycol has been accumulating inventory in the near - term, but the supply - demand structure will improve from March. This week, polyester plants implemented moderate production cuts, and the monthly average load was revised down. The overseas supply of ethylene glycol will be further squeezed, and it will gradually be reflected in the import volume from February. In reality, the high port inventory and the continuous accumulation situation will restrict the rebound height of ethylene glycol. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will be range - bound in the near future, and there is certain buying support at low levels [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Hints - **PTA**: - On Friday, the mainstream of December goods was traded at a discount of 65 to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5100 - 5250. January goods were traded at a discount of 60 to the 05 contract, and February goods at a discount of 50. December warehouse receipts were traded at around 05 - 73. The mainstream spot basis on that day was 05 - 65. The spot price was 5170, and the 05 contract basis was - 110, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract increased [6][7]. - **MEG**: - On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and then weakened, with weak buying sentiment. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market was narrowly sorted at a low level, and the spot was negotiated at a discount of 160 - 152 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the afternoon, the market fluctuated upward, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. At the end of the session, next - week's spot was negotiated at a discount of 146 - 148 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market fluctuated upward. In the morning, the recent shipments were negotiated at around 440 - 442 US dollars/ton, and the buyers in the market were cautious. In the afternoon, the negotiation of January shipments rebounded to around 448 - 450 US dollars/ton, and the trading was stalemate. The domestic and foreign market transaction negotiation ranges were 3632 - 3700 yuan/ton and 440 - 448 US dollars/ton respectively. The spot price was 3670, and the 05 contract basis was - 176, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in the East China region was 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Device Changes**: - A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has stopped for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. - The 1.1 - million - ton Ineos and 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng Ningbo plants have restarted. - A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has restarted after heating up. It was shut down for maintenance at the end of November. - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th. It was shut down for maintenance in November [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory [14]. - **Price and Profit Data**: - It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from December 25 to December 26, 2025, as well as the profit data of different production methods of PTA and MEG and polyester products [15]. - **Historical Data Charts**: There are multiple historical data charts, including the price, production profit, start - up rate, inventory, and spread data of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, polyester fibers, etc., covering the time range from 2020 to 2025 [18][21][24][27][28][32][35][39][42][45][47][50][52][54][57][59][61][62][63][66][68][70][71][73].
沪锌期货早报-20251229
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 01:40
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85225791 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面:外媒10月19日消息:世界金属统计局(WBMS)公布最新数据显 示,2025年9月,全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨;偏多。 2、基差:现货23280,基差+110;中性。 3、库存:12月24日LME锌库存较上日增加7900吨至106875吨,12月25日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日增加756吨至42075吨;偏空。 4、盘面:昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势,收2 ...
大越期货尿素早报-20251229
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 01:40
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a Urea Morning Report dated December 29, 2025, from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][4] - It provides an overview of the urea market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, and other aspects, and predicts the market trend [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - Positive factors include inventory de - stocking; negative factors include domestic oversupply and new highs in daily production. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [4][5] Group 4: Key Points by Category Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate are stable, comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demand is on - demand. The export demand has declined in the short term, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand. The spot price of the deliverable is 1710 (+0), and the fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 25, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons (-7.2), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] - Outlook: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. Industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is de - stocking, short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea market has shown growth in capacity, production, and consumption. For example, in 2019, capacity increased by 8.9% compared to the previous year, and consumption increased by 12.8% [9] Market Data - Spot prices: The spot price of the deliverable is 1710, the Shandong spot price is 1730, and the Henan spot price is 1710, with no change [6] - Futures prices: The price of the 05 contract is 1735 (-5), the UR01 is 1667 (-8), and the UR09 is 1701 (-4) [6] - Inventory data: The warehouse receipt is 10,750, UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons (-7.2), UR factory inventory is 106.9 million tons (-11.1), and UR port inventory is 17.7 million tons (+3.9) [6]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251229
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 01:40
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-29 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号:F3020542 投资咨询证号: Z0021831 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,11月份,官方PMI为49.2,比上月回升0.2个百分点,制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划,12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日, 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落,煤制利润企稳。供需端,农膜需 求收缩订单偏弱,包装膜需求一般订单回落。当前LL交割品现货价6250(-70),基本面整体偏 空; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2605合约基差-215,升贴水比例-3.3%,偏空; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存49.1万吨(-3.2),偏空; • 4. 盘面: LLDPE主力合 ...
工业硅期货早报-20251226
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 05:46
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看,上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨,环比持平。 需求端来看,上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨,环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为30.3万吨,处于高位,硅片亏损,电池片亏损,组件盈利; 有机硅库存为43900吨,处于低位,有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨,处于盈 利状态,其综合开工率为69.79%,环比持平,低于历史同期平均水平;铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨,处于高位,进口利润为228元/吨,A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为588.67元/吨,再生铝开工率为59.8%,环比持平,处于高 位。 成本端来看,新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...
大越期货PVC期货早报-20251226
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:48
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看,据隆众统计,2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨,环比减少2.29%;本周样 本企业产能利用率为77.38%,环比减少0.03个百分点;电石法企业产量33.549万吨,环比 减少2.40%,乙烯法企业产量14.096万吨,环比减少2.99%;本周供给压力有所减少;下周预 计检修有所减少,预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为45.39%,环比减少3.5个百分点,高于历史平均水平;下游 型材开工率为31.43%,环比减少3.7个百分点,低于历史平均水平;下游管材开工率为 37.6%,环比持平,高于历史平均水平;下游薄膜开工率 ...
大越期货沥青期货早报-20251226
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure may be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The total planned production volume of asphalt in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points [7]. - The demand is currently below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points [7]. - The cost support may weaken in the short term as the daily processing profit of asphalt is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. Also, the crude oil price has weakened [8]. - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: The total planned production of asphalt in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The total sample enterprise output is 487,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Refineries have cut production this week, reducing supply pressure, and it is expected to further decrease next week [7]. - **Demand - side**: The current demand is below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points [7]. - **Cost - side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The crude oil price has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [8]. - **Other aspects**: On December 25th, the Shandong spot price is 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 75 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The social inventory is 714,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%; the in - plant inventory is 594,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.55%. The main positions are net short, and the short positions have increased. It is expected that the refinery's recent production scheduling cuts will reduce supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish, the inventory remains flat, the cost support of crude oil weakens in the short term, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report shows the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), as well as the price changes and production data of different types of asphalt (such as heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the inventory data of different regions and types of inventories (social inventory, in - plant inventory, port diluted asphalt inventory) [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: It presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It shows the historical trends of the prices of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the historical trends of the cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [28][29]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt to SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It shows the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [52][53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical trend of the local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][67]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import - export situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports, imports, and the import spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [86][87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - **Downstream开工情况**: It shows the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from September 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].