交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-13燃料油早报 1、基本面：因即期供应充足，亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构走弱。不过，得益于11月装船货物的买盘兴趣回升， 380CST高硫燃料油的现货价差转为正值；一位新加坡贸易商表示，新加坡地区的高硫燃料油库存在本月剩余时 间及11月看起来都相当高；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油382.29美元/吨，基差为37元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为452.5美元/吨，基差为24元/ 吨，现货平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油10月8日当周库存为2061.9万桶，减少164万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空；低硫主力持仓空单，多翻空，偏空 6、预期：周末特朗普对中国关税言论的反复令市场预期大幅波动，油价在周五大幅走弱周一早盘开始回升，燃 油紧随其后，目前基本面暂未有亮点，跟随油价运行。FU2601：2700-2780区间运行，LU2511：3200-3280区间 运行 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-852 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年10月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：受特朗普关税威胁影响，美股重演4月暴跌，金价回升，但周一早盘情 绪和缓，美股高开；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收 益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌1.95个基点报4.117%；美元指数跌0.57%报 98.84，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1478；COMEX黄金期货涨1.58%报4035.50美 元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注中国9月贸易帐、世界银行和IMF举办2025年秋季年会、美联储官 员江湖。关税担忧影响，金价回升，周一情绪和缓，金价继续走高，金价情绪高 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, a large positive and a large negative line in the Shanghai Nickel market basically digested some macro - impacts during the National Day. Spot trading was acceptable. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading of ternary batteries still declined, having limited impact on nickel demand. In the short - term, sentiment risks increased, and in the medium - to - long - term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [8]. - The Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800. If there is macro - stimulation, the upper and lower limits may expand. Short - selling on rallies can be considered. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: After the holiday, market fluctuations digested macro - impacts. The nickel ore price was firm due to the approaching Philippine rainy season and limited earthquake impact on mining. The nickel - iron price was weakly stable with enterprises in loss. Stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. New energy vehicle data was good, but ternary battery loading declined, limiting nickel demand. Short - term sentiment risks increased, and the medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remained [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may expand the range with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Red soil nickel ore prices remained stable. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased slightly. Low - nickel and high - nickel iron prices were mostly stable. Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased slightly. The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: The nickel ore price was stable, and sea freight was flat. As of October 9, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports was 15.0093 million wet tons, an increase of 6.1%. In August 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million tons, a significant increase. The Philippines was entering the rainy season, and mines had firm quotes. Earthquakes in the Philippines had limited impact on mining. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices oscillated with acceptable trading volume. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would increase, but the oversupply pattern remained. The substitution of ternary in the new energy industry chain was obvious, and nickel demand growth slowed. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, with an increase in October expected. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased [22][26][36]. - **Nickel - Iron Market**: Nickel - iron prices were mainly stable. In September 2025, China's nickel - iron production decreased. In August 2025, the nickel - iron import volume increased significantly. The nickel - iron inventory in August was 218,900 physical tons [43][46][49]. - **Stainless - Steel Market**: The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons. The latest stainless - steel import was 117,100 tons, and the export was 447,900 tons. As of October 10, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, an increase of 77,700 tons [57][63][69]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with significant year - on - year growth. From January to August, production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively. In August, the total output of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, and the power - battery sales volume was 98.9 GWh. The power - battery loading volume was 62.5 GWh, with the ternary battery loading volume decreasing [73][76]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, after the holiday, there was a large positive and a large negative line. There was some capital inflow, and short - selling positions increased. The MACD had no clear direction, and the KDJ was at the 50 mid - value. Technically, the range - oscillation pattern remained unchanged [79]. 4. Industry Chain Combing Summary - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Price**: Nickel ore, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel had a neutral impact on nickel prices. Refined nickel had a neutral - to - bearish impact, and the new energy sector had a neutral impact [82]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may reach 125,800 with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, cotton prices showed a mild and slightly fluctuating trend. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. The main contract 01 has a weak rebound, and there is an expectation of further bottom - hunting. It is recommended to short on rallies [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include a reduction in previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - After the National Day holiday, there were only two trading days. Cotton prices fluctuated slightly. The expected national cotton output is 722 million tons, with Xinjiang reaching a new high. Multiple reports provide different data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.5 million tons and consumption is 25.5 million tons; the USDA September report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: A reduction in previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No specific content provided for "Today's Focus" in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA's global cotton production and consumption forecast for 2025/26 shows that the total production is 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons, and total consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons. The ending inventory is 15.925 million tons [10]. - The ICAC's global cotton supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 shows that the global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) [12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture's data for the 2025/26 shows that the production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [14]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific content provided for "Position Data" in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. Fuel oil prices also weakened as geopolitical factors subsided. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, down 7.23% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, down 4.48% for the week [5]. - The east - west arbitrage window for 0.5% sulfur low - sulfur fuel oil has been mostly closed in recent weeks, but the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil has continued to increase. Asian refinery maintenance in autumn has not significantly tightened local supply, and the Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil market has sufficient supply. Stable supply and weak downstream marine fuel demand will keep Singapore's inventory at a high level in the short term, and the market will be weak [5]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is firm, partly due to relatively stable downstream marine fuel activities. Although the current high - sulfur fuel oil marine fuel demand remains stable, as the peak summer electricity demand season in the Middle East fades, the inflow of goods from the region will increase, keeping the Asian market well - supplied in the next few weeks. With the threat of a new round of tariff war from the US against China and no further escalation of sanctions on Russian energy exports, fuel oil will run weakly overall. For operation, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton range, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton range [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - long View - High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, down 7.23% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, down 4.48% for the week. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is well - supplied and weak, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is firm but may face increased supply in the future. Overall, fuel oil runs weakly, and specific operating ranges are given [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,893 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,808 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan or 2.96%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,442 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,331 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan or 3.24% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: For various fuel oil products in different regions such as Zhoushan and Singapore, prices have all declined. For example, Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 484.00 to 473.00, down 11.00 or 2.27% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: There are charts showing the consumption of fuel oil in Singapore, China, and the coking profit margin of fuel oil in Shandong from 2021 - 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has fluctuated. For example, on October 8, it was 2,061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels compared to the previous period [11]. 3.5 Spread Data - There is a chart showing the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 日，特朗普威胁对中国加征100%关税，中美贸易争端升级可能性再度提升，油价大幅回落，供需 端，新增宁波金发产能落地，货源供应充裕，塑编受旺季支撑表现良好，管材需求偏弱。当前PP 交割品现货价6760（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差35，升贴水比例0.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存68.1万吨（+16.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： PP主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，企业库存累积，甘肃、河北等多省 库存增加。需求端，工业及农业需求均偏弱，农需秋季用量零散，复合肥企业产能利用率低，未 大规模开工，处于需求真空期。出口内外价差较大，虽有第三批配额落地，对国内价格支撑有限。 国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1710（+10），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差113，升贴水比例6.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存168.6万吨（+16.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报（10.9-10.10） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格在16美分/磅附近震荡，进口利润窗口打开，进 口冲击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 日糖点报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 期价 ...

一、期货行情回顾 橡胶：暂时观望 橡胶期货 研究结论 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 衍 生 品 本周市场震荡，周五夜盘再度走软 贸易战有再度爆发的风险 暂时观望 策略周报 策略周报（10.9—10.10） | 分析师： | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU2601 | 15180 | 15480 | 15150 | 15315 | +1.9% | | NR2511 | 12200 | 12520 | 12200 | 12350 | +2.07% | | BR2511 | 11145 | 11335 | 11120 | 11220 | +1.08% | 长假期间外盘表现相对平淡，价格有所反弹。但周末中美贸易战有再度爆发的 风险，胶价下跌，逼近前低。 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 23 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14600 元/吨，相比节前下跌 100 元/吨。 青岛保 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Positive Factors**: Cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to halt or reduce production [10]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand recovery is sluggish after the holiday; there is an oversupply in the downstream polysilicon market. The main reason is the mismatch between production capacity and demand, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 4.30% increase compared to the previous week. The demand was 82,000 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, at a high level. The silicone inventory was 55,100 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of -708 yuan/ton, in a loss - making state. The comprehensive operating rate was 70.43%, flat compared to the previous week, and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 757,000 tons, at a high level, with an import loss of 188 yuan/ton. The cost support in the Xinjiang region has increased [6]. - **Basis**: On October 10th, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 615 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% increase compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 167,850 tons, a 3.29% increase. The main port inventory was 120,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8,550 - 8,820 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% decrease compared to the previous week. The production in October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month. The silicon wafer production was 12.83GW, a 6.89% decrease, and the inventory was 167,800 tons, a 3.38% increase. The silicon wafer production is currently in a loss - making state. The production in October is expected to be 55.68GW, a 5.70% decrease compared to the previous month. The battery cell and component production have mixed performance, with battery cells mostly in loss and components in profit [8]. - **Basis**: On October 10th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 3,585 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply production is expected to increase in the short term and adjust in the medium term. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support is stable. The polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 48,060 - 49,870 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The spot prices of different grades of silicon in East China remained stable [14]. - The social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory showed different trends of change. The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also had corresponding changes [14]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends. The production, inventory, and cost - profit indicators also had corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon SI main contract and the spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon showed different trends over time [19]. - The price of polysilicon main contract and the basis showed different trends over time [23]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprises, and the number of registered warrants showed different trends over time [25]. 3.5 Production and Capacity Utilization - The weekly production of SMM sample enterprises, monthly production by specification, and operating rate of industrial silicon showed different trends over time [29][30][31]. 3.6 Cost - The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang showed different trends over time [35]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance 3.7.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends over time, with factors such as production, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [37][40]. 3.7.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time, with factors such as supply, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [64]. 3.8 Downstream Market 3.8.1 Silicone - The price, production, import - export, and inventory of DMC in the silicone industry showed different trends over time [43][50]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 in the silicone industry showed different trends over time [45][46]. 3.8.2 Aluminum Alloy - The price, import - export, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) of aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [53][56][57]. 3.8.3 Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time [61][64]. - The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry showed different trends over time [67][70][73][76].