1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. Demand recovery is underwhelming, with current demand below historical average levels. The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 312,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%, and the output was 701,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.49%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.02%. The current demand is lower than the historical average, and the loss of asphalt processing has decreased [7]. - **Basis**: On September 26th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 50 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.105 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%; factory inventory was 658,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 15,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.50%. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, factory inventory is continuously increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing [7]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is long, changing from short to long [7]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has increased, raising supply pressure. The overall demand is lower than expected despite the stimulation of the peak season. The inventory remains stable, and the strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the price, inventory, and production data of different asphalt contracts, including price changes, inventory changes, and production volume changes. For example, the price of the 01 contract increased by 1.07% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 3.58% [14]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts [16][17]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts [19][20]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil through charts [22][23]. - **Crude Oil Cracking Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the cracking spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 through charts [25][26][27]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 through charts [29][30][31]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [32][33]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [34][35]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [37][38][39]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2025 through a chart [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [46][47]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical price trend of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical production volume trend of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [53][54]. - **开工率**: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rate trend of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 through a chart [56][57]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [58][59]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 through charts [61][62][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 through charts [65][66]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trend of the factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [68][69]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - The report shows the historical export and import volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [71][72]. - The report shows the historical price difference trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [74][75][76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical production volume trend of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [77][78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [80][81]. - **Downstream Demand**: - The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 through charts [83][84][85]. - The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 through charts [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - The report shows the historical operating rate trend of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [92][93]. - The report shows the historical operating rate trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [95][96]. - The report shows the historical operating rate trends of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [98][99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with average downstream transactions and no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. In the industry chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and due to the impact of typhoons, the loading and shipping of mines might be delayed. Ferronickel prices remained stable, with a firm cost line, and ferronickel enterprises were still in the red. The inventory reduction of stainless steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" slowed down. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, but the installation of ternary batteries still showed a decline, which had limited impact on the increase in nickel demand. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Outlook**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with average downstream transactions and no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: - Shanghai nickel main contract: It will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, oscillating in the range of 120,000 - 123,800 [9]. - Stainless steel main contract: It will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: - Some nickel ore grades saw a slight increase of $1 per wet ton, and the freight rate remained the same as last week. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate increased by 1.76%. The prices of low - nickel ferronickel and high - nickel ferronickel in Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of electrolytic nickel and 304 stainless steel decreased slightly [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: - Some nickel ore prices increased slightly, and the freight rate remained flat. As of September 26, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.0937 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In August 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.72%. This week, nickel ore transactions were okay, and due to the impact of typhoons, the loading and shipping volume of Philippine mines might be delayed. Indonesia's supply was still abundant [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and there was no pre - holiday restocking demand. In the long - term, the supply and demand would continue to increase, but the surplus pattern would not change. The domestic new energy sector might be a new demand driver. In the medium - and long - term, prices might be under pressure, but would not deviate far from the cost line, and the center of gravity might shift downward. In August 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,695 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.62%. The LME inventory increased by 1,680 tons, while the Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 959 tons [22][25][39]. - **Ferronickel Market**: - Ferronickel prices remained stable. In August 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,900 tons of metal, a year - on - year decrease of 9.96%. The import volume in August was 874,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.4%. The inventory in August was 218,900 physical tons, equivalent to 21,700 tons of nickel [43][47][53]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.36% this week. In August, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.3156 million tons, and the 300 - series production increased by 2.34% month - on - month. The import volume was 117,100 tons, and the export volume was 447,900 tons. As of September 26, the national inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 260 tons month - on - month [58][64][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%. The production of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. The sales volume of power batteries was 98.9 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 44.4%. The installation volume of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 32.4%, among which the installation volume of ternary batteries decreased by 10.0% year - on - year [74][77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price still fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. The position increased when the price rose and decreased when it fell, indicating that the main players were selling high and buying low. The MACD red bar fluctuated slightly above the 0 axis, showing obvious lack of momentum and no clear direction. The KDJ was downward but not in the oversold area. The price was mainly oscillating, and the amplitude might be enlarged due to the influence of the surrounding market [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - The impact of each link on nickel prices: - Nickel ore: Neutral. Transactions were okay, quotes were stable, freight rates were firm, and it might be affected by typhoons in the short term [83]. - Ferronickel: Neutral. Ferronickel prices remained stable, and the cost line was firm [83]. - Refined nickel: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and overseas inventory continued to accumulate [83]. - Stainless steel: Slightly bullish. The cost was firm, and the inventory decreased [83]. - New energy: Neutral. The production data were good, but the installation of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year [83].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周报 （9.22-9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 周度观点 燃料油周评：上周，国际原油整体提升，燃料油价格同时受到俄罗斯出口禁令延期影响上行强劲，高硫 报收2972元/吨，周涨6.29%，低硫报收3525元/吨，周涨3.92%。 当前含硫0.5%船用燃油市场的主要问题仍在于库存充足，在当前市场结构下，低硫燃料油供应难以释放， 因为无人愿意以贴水价格销售。同时，近期低硫燃料油需求将保持温和，询盘量有限。低硫船用燃料油的疲 软走势导致新加坡低硫燃料油与高硫燃料油现货价差（即Hi-5价差）收窄。不过贸易消息人士表示，亚洲地区 炼厂秋季检修可能在未来几周内削减区域供应，或 ...

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report (September 22 - September 26) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rebounded after hitting the bottom and stopped falling in the short - term, mainly due to short - sellers reducing their positions after continuous declines and the impact of Typhoon "Koinu". However, the rebound strength is not large [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market supply. StoneX expects a surplus of 277 million tons, while ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons, which is significantly reduced compared to the previous forecast [5]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, after continuous declines in Zhengzhou sugar futures, some short positions took profits and left the market. The typhoon affected the sugarcane - producing areas in southern Guangxi, which may lead to a production reduction, causing the main 01 contract to show a short - term volatile rebound. It is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the holiday due to large uncertainties [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new - year global supply, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6% [5]. - In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. In July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - Different institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market supply: ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 277 million tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 million tons; Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons [5][35]. - The sugar - cane planting and production data in China from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are as follows: the sugar - cane planting area, harvest area, yield per unit area, and sugar production are all provided, along with import, consumption, and price data [36]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff from 2024 to 2025 is provided, with different ICE raw sugar average prices and corresponding costs [38]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The expectation of a strong market in September was disappointed. Cotton prices continued to decline this week, with Zhengzhou cotton dropping significantly. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing the hedging pressure. The main contract 01 is expected to be weak in the short - term. Considering the upcoming National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce profitable short positions to avoid risks [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption in September [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The cotton market continued its downward trend this week. The expected strong market in September did not materialize. Xinjiang's cotton harvest is promising. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton year in terms of production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report predicts a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA September report predicts a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is almost half over, but the market is quiet. The textile and clothing export data in August was not ideal. With the new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main contract 01 is expected to be weak in the short - term. Considering the National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce profitable short positions to avoid risks [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, the total global production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and the ending inventory is 822,000 tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 and 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 and 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content related to position data is provided in the report.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 上周回顾 2 每周周评 3 4 5 基本面数据 持仓数据 总结 | 指 标 | 前 | 收 | 最 | 高 | 最 | 低 | 涨 | 跌 | | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金2512 | 856 . | 06 | 862 . | 1 | 829 | 86 . | 26 . | 28 | 3 . | 17 | | 沪银2512 | 10632 | | 10646 | | | 9964 | 694 | 00 . | 6 . | 98 | | 黄金2512 | 3789 . | 8 | 3824 | 6 . | 3718 | 1 . | 84 . | 00 | 2 . | 27 | | 白银2512 | 46 . | 365 | 46 . | 945 | 43 | 37 . | 3 . | 41 | 7 . | 95 | | SGE黄金T+D | 852 . | 9 | 856 . | 7 | 824 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, steel and ore prices rose first and then fell, showing a weak trend. The weak expectation of future demand was the main factor for the overall decline [61]. - From a fundamental perspective, the situation of screw and coil was not as bad as the price trend. Although the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased slightly, the apparent demand for rebar increased. The weak expectation of future demand was the main reason for the price decline [61]. - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" jointly issued by five departments did not clearly cut production capacity but admitted the current reduction in steel demand, which hit market confidence. The performance in the traditional "Golden September" season confirmed this pessimistic expectation, with prices rising and then falling [61]. - Iron ore was affected by the decrease in molten iron production and the increase in port inventory, fluctuating with screw and coil and difficult to strengthen independently. In the later stage, it is necessary to closely track the inventory depletion speed and the quality of terminal demand, pay attention to the introduction of policies on the implementation measures for steel industry capacity replacement, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the festival [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week data changes**: PB powder price decreased from 799 yuan/wet ton to 785 yuan/wet ton; Ba - mixed powder price decreased from 828 yuan/wet ton to 820 yuan/wet ton. PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 14.01 yuan/wet ton to - 10.71 yuan/wet ton, and Ba - mixed powder spot landing profit increased from - 5.81 yuan/wet ton to 0.73 yuan/wet ton. Australian shipments to China decreased by 223.9 tons to 1512.8 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 33 tons to 836.3 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 169 tons to 14550.68 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 358.1 tons to 2750.4 tons. The port throughput increased by 0.38 tons to 351.41 tons. The daily average port trading volume of iron ore increased by 9.1 tons to 94.9 tons, and the daily average molten iron production increased by 1.34 tons to 242.36 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 0.86% to 58.01% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - **One - week data changes**: The Shanghai rebar price remained unchanged at 3260 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3370 yuan/ton. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47% to 84.45%, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 3.27% to 67.36%. The rebar blast furnace profit decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 14 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The rebar electric furnace profit increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 128 yuan/ton. The weekly rebar output increased by 0.01 tons to 206.46 tons, and the weekly hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.3 tons to 324.19 tons [31]. - **Inventory and consumption data**: The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 13.32 tons to 471.89 tons, and the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 2.11 tons to 298.8 tons. The weekly enterprise inventory of rebar decreased by 0.66 tons to 164.41 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.4 tons to 81.7 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 10.41 tons to 220.44 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons to 321.68 tons. The building material trading volume decreased by 12776 tons to 101068 tons [33]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Production data**: The report presents historical data on the actual weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Chinese steel enterprises from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. - **Profit data**: It shows the historical data on the average daily profit of electric - furnace building steel in China from 2019 - 2025 [49]. - **Inventory data**: The report includes historical data on the weekly social and enterprise inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil in China from 2019 - 2025 [50][52]. - **Trading volume data**: It provides historical data on the daily trading volume of mainstream building - steel traders in China from 2019 - 2025 [54]. - **Apparent consumption data**: The report shows the historical data on the weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [55]. - **Export data**: It presents the monthly export volume of Chinese steel from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - **Real - estate data**: The report includes historical data on the cumulative year - on - year changes in investment completion, sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of real - estate development enterprises in China from 1999 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Manufacturing PMI data**: It shows the monthly manufacturing PMI value from 2019 - 2025 [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the long holiday, trading in the domestic methanol market gradually weakened, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will have limited fluctuations next week. Inland, downstream raw material inventories are at a high level, and the procurement volume is expected to shrink in the later period, with tightened transportation capacity and most traders staying on the sidelines. With large - scale external procurement by CTO plants in the northwest this week, upstream methanol plants have little inventory and no need to destock before the holiday. Without obvious influencing factors, the inland methanol market is expected to have a quiet consolidation before the holiday. In the port area, the short side of the futures still has the upper hand, and the methanol market price is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment before the holiday. There are many variables in October, mainly focusing on whether some Iranian plants will be shut down for maintenance as scheduled, the reduction in shipping volume, and the degree of inventory reduction at ports. With marginal improvement in fundamentals, pay attention to low - buying opportunities in the port market under speculation [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - Near the long holiday, trading in the domestic methanol market gradually weakened, with limited fluctuations expected next week. Inland, downstream procurement is expected to shrink and transportation capacity is tight. Northwest CTO plants' large - scale procurement keeps upstream inventory low. The inland market is expected to consolidate quietly before the holiday. In the port area, the futures short side dominates, with prices expected to fluctuate. In October, focus on Iranian plant maintenance, shipping volume, and port inventory reduction, and look for low - buying opportunities [5]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From September 19th to September 26th, the prices in different regions had different trends. The price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.13%, Hebei decreased by 2.81%, and Fujian decreased by 0.65%, while the prices in Shandong (Lunan) and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [6]. Methanol Basis - From September 19th to September 26th, the spot price decreased by 0.13%, the futures price decreased by 0.25%, and the basis increased by 3 [9]. Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 15, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 40, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit decreased by 327 [11]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [13]. Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia prices remained unchanged, and the spread also had little change [16]. Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost increased by 0.03%, and the import spread decreased by 4 [19]. Traditional Methanol Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from September 19th to September 26th [26]. Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 29, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% [27]. Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 92, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% [29]. Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 2, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% [34]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 10, and the load decreased by 0.15% to 79.69% [38]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased by 2.78, and in the South China port, it decreased by 3.39 [39]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased by 14.56% to 11332, and effective forecasts decreased by 100% to 0 [44]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, planned maintenance, or experiencing production reduction. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and other plants are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end dates and corresponding production losses [47]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Some overseas methanol plants are in different operation states. For example, some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and some plants in other countries are also in normal operation, maintenance, or shutdown states [48]. Olefin Plant Operation - Different olefin plants in various regions have different operation states. Some are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some are in the process of starting up or shutting down. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is in maintenance, while some plants in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other regions are operating stably [49].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2380至2440区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差115，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Iraq's northern Kurdish region resumed crude oil transportation through the pipeline to Turkey on Saturday for the first time in two and a half years, with 18 - 19万桶/日 of crude oil to be restored [3][5]. - OPEC+ may approve another increase in oil production at the October 5 meeting, with a daily increase of at least 13.7万桶 [3]. - The US government faces a shutdown risk as Trump will meet with congressional leaders to discuss government funding before the September 30 deadline [3][5]. - EU countries have not reached a unified consensus on banning Russian oil imports [3][6]. - The short - term geopolitical conflict has increased, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term. The oil price is expected to fluctuate, with short - term trading in the 490 - 500 range, and long - term long positions are advised to consider partial profit - taking [3][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Crude oil 2511: Fundamentally neutral; basis shows spot premium over futures, which is bullish; inventory data is mostly bullish; the 20 - day moving average is flat with price above, neutral;主力 positions in WTI and Brent are long and increasing, bullish [3]. - Futures prices: Brent crude settled at 69.22, up 0.64 (0.93%); WTI at 65.72, up 0.74 (1.14%); SC at 489.1, up 0.20 (0.04%); Oman at 70.53, down 0.08 (-0.11%) [7]. - Spot prices: UK Brent Dtd at 72.09, up 1.50 (2.12%); WTI at 65.72, up 0.74 (1.14%); Oman at 70.88, up 0.05 (0.07%); Shengli at 66.72, up 0.63 (0.95%); Dubai at 70.71, down 0.09 (-0.13%) [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump will meet with congressional leaders to avoid a government shutdown. Democrats and Republicans have different views on the short - term spending bill [5]. - Slovakia refuses to quickly stop importing Russian oil due to technical obstacles and limited alternative transportation routes [5]. - Iraq's semi - autonomous Kurdistan region resumed crude oil exports on Saturday [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: None mentioned. - Bearish factors: EU's non - unified view on Russian oil ban, US government shutdown risk, OPEC+ considering further production increase [6]. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflict increase, medium - long - term supply increase risk [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - API inventory: Decreased by 382.1万桶 in the week ending September 19 [3][10]. - EIA inventory: Decreased by 60.7万桶 in the week ending September 19, against an expected increase of 23.5万桶; Cushing region inventory increased by 17.7万桶 in the same week [3][12]. - Shanghai crude oil futures inventory: Remained at 540.1万桶 as of September 26 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI crude: As of September 16, the net long position increased [3][16]. - Brent crude: As of September 16, the net long position increased [3][18].