1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate between 2300 and 2360. The market has returned to a volatile state waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. The contract will maintain a short - term volatile pattern affected by soybean meal and the uncertainty of Sino - Canadian trade [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent Important News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. The Canadian rapeseed harvest is underway, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce the short - term export and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping case [12]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in spot transactions fluctuates slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 2605 contract expands slightly [13][20]. - The rapeseed meal futures contract changes the main contract. The spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium expands slightly [18]. - The arrival of imported rapeseed increases slightly in December, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [23]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [25]. - The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remains at zero operation rate [27]. - The price of aquaculture fish drops slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position of rapeseed meal changes from long to short, and funds flow in [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental aspect: Rapeseed meal fluctuates and declines, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. It is neutral [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2500, the basis is 169, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main position: The main position changes from long to short, and funds flow in, which is bearish [9]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal returns to a volatile state due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile pattern, and the subsequent development should be monitored [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Report Subject: Precious Metals Morning Report Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - **Gold**: After the UK CPI, the market's expectation of the central bank cutting interest rates within the year has increased. The US dollar rebounded, and gold prices continued to rise. The gold price was also pushed up by the sharp rise in silver prices. The gold - silver ratio is at a low level, and the gold price still has support [4]. - **Silver**: The sharp rise in lithium carbonate has led to another substantial increase in silver prices. Although the US dollar rebounded at night, the upward momentum of silver prices has been significantly curbed. The bullish sentiment for Shanghai silver remains high [5]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $4371.40 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.36 basis points to 4.153%. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40. The offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0399 [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures rose 4.92% to $66.44 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.36 basis points to 4.153%. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40. The offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0399 [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.93, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The gold futures warehouse receipt is 91302 kilograms, an increase of 3 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 34, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 890715 kilograms, with a daily increase of 32901 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Events include the official launch of the full - island customs closure operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, US President Trump's national speech, the Ministry of Commerce's regular press conference, interest rate decisions of multiple central banks (Swedish, Norwegian, British, European, Mexican), the release of the US November CPI and the number of initial jobless claims for the week of December 13th, and the European Council meeting to discuss issues such as Ukraine and the EU's multi - year financial framework [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and it is difficult for the gold price to decline. The recent interest rate cut expectations of the Federal Reserve and the optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have jointly affected the market, and the upward impetus of the gold price still exists but is limited [9]. - **Silver**: The silver price still follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [12]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: As of December 17, 2025, the long position volume was 192,805, an increase of 1.40% compared to the previous day; the short position volume was 55,577, a decrease of 2.31%; the net position was 137,228, an increase of 2.98% [29]. - **Silver**: As of December 17, 2025, the long position volume was 408,957, an increase of 4.49% compared to the previous day; the short position volume was 303,451, an increase of 7.29%; the net position was 105,506, a decrease of 2.82% [31].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **M2605 Soybean Meal**: Expected to trade in the range of 2720 - 2780. Influenced by the US soybean trend, technical adjustments, short - term demand improvement, and spot price discounts. Short - term outlook is neutral, with a tendency to be slightly weaker in the short run [8][9]. - **A2605 Soybeans**: Expected to trade in the range of 4040 - 4140. Affected by the US soybean trend, domestic soybean reserves, and import volumes. Short - term outlook is neutral, with an overall slightly weaker expectation [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Trading range 2720 - 2780, short - term neutral but slightly weaker. Influenced by US soybean trends, demand, and inventory [8][9]. - **Soybeans**: Trading range 4040 - 4140, short - term neutral but slightly weaker. Affected by US soybean trends, import volumes, and domestic soybean advantages [10][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. US soybeans are oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark. - Domestic imported soybean arrivals will decline in December, while oil mill soybean inventories remain high. South American soybean planting and growth weather are normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits lead to low pig - restocking expectations. Soybean meal demand has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting price expectations. [12][13] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; no pressure on domestic oil mill soybean meal inventories; weather in US and South American soybean - producing areas is uncertain [14]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: High volume of domestic imported soybean arrivals in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Imported soybean costs support the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices [16]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases; expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses prices [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 3040, basis is 284, indicating a premium over futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week and a 44.18% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4100, basis is - 27, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week and a 47.57% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: Main - contract short positions increased, and funds flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: Main - contract short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean harvest areas, production, consumption, and inventory from 2015 - 2024 [33][34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Include data on Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 [35][44]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Provide data on US soybean planting area, yield, production, and inventory from May - December 2025 [46]. - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: Show monthly data from 2020 - 2025, with arrivals in November 2025 falling from a high level but an overall year - on - year increase [49]. - **Oil Mill Data**: Oil mill soybean inventories are high, soybean meal inventories have returned to high levels, unexecuted contracts have risen to high levels, and soybean crushing volumes remain at a relatively high level [50][52]. - **Pig - Farming Data**: Pig inventories are rising, sow inventories are flat year - on - year and slightly down month - on - month. Pig prices are fluctuating slightly, and piglet prices are weak [58][60].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落，表现依然较弱。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格 稳定，海运费持平，矿库存高位，中长期预期供应宽松。镍铁价格止跌小幅反弹，成本线略有上涨。不 锈钢库存小幅回落。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提 振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货115300，基差1500，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253998，+690，上交所仓单38261，-432，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2601：低位震荡偏弱。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期 ...

目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.43%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.376万吨，环比减少3.21%,乙烯法企业产 量14.531万吨，环比增加7.43%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.89%，环比减少0.18个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.13%，环比减少0.73个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.6%，环比增加0.200个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of large pigs for slaughter in China is gradually increasing, combined with the recent rise in swine fever, leading to a short - term increase in slaughter and suppressing pig prices. It is expected that both the supply of pigs and pork will increase. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment is expected to improve, and the demand for cured meat is gradually being released, supporting the price bottom, but overall consumption remains unoptimistic. The market is expected to see both increased supply and demand this week, with pig prices experiencing short - term fluctuations and a decline, and medium - term price movements likely to remain within a range. Attention should be paid to the monthly slaughter rhythm changes of large - scale farms and the dynamic changes in the secondary fattening market [8]. - The basis shows that the national average spot price is 11,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2603 contract is 65 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, presenting a neutral situation [8]. - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 2.3% year - on - year increase; as of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a 0.01% month - on - month increase and a 0.66% year - on - year decrease, showing a bearish trend [8]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, indicating a bullish trend [8]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [8]. - In the near term, both the supply and demand of pigs are increasing. It is expected that pig prices will enter a weak - oscillation pattern this week, with the LH2603 contract oscillating in the range of around 11,200 - 11,600 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the approaching peak demand season, and with the spread of swine fever, the number of pigs for slaughter has increased, leading to an increase in pig supply. The spot price is expected to remain in an oscillatory pattern in the short and medium term [10]. - As the demand for cured meat approaches the end of the year, the pig spot market is gradually entering a phase of high supply and demand. The room for further short - term price decline may be limited, and prices may return to an oscillatory trend [10]. - The losses in domestic pig farming have recently shifted to small fluctuations, and short - term profits still remain in the red. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has rebounded in the short term, and the increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot markets [10]. - The spot price of pigs has stopped falling and stabilized, returning to an oscillatory pattern. The futures market remains weak in the short term but may generally maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed in the future [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish - The domestic pig supply has entered the peak season at the end of the year [12]. - The room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [12]. Bearish - The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the initial Sino - US trade agreement [12]. - The domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [12]. Main Logic - The market is focusing on the situation of pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [12]. 4. Fundamental Data Futures and Spot Prices - The table shows the prices of pig futures (near - month 2601, main 2603), pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of ternary hybrid pigs in different regions from December 10 - 17, 2025 [13]. Other Fundamental Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends of basis and spreads in the pig futures market, the average prices of different pig specifications in the spot market, various supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet indicators, inventory, import, cost, profit, etc.), slaughter - end prices and profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - to - grain ratio, and the situation of pig reserve purchases and releases [14][16][22] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 利多：年前下游补库，商业库存同比降低。对美出口关 税比前期降低10%。 利空：总体外贸订单下降，库存增加。新棉即将大量上 市。目前处于传统消费淡季。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量261 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall market is affected by factors such as high - cost crude oil, insufficient demand for high - price goods, and the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating in the range of 2983 - 3041 [8][9][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 0.18 percentage points month - on - month, the sample enterprise output decreased by 0.59% month - on - month, and the device maintenance volume increased by 14.29% month - on - month. The refinery has reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may be reduced next week [8] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt (except for road - modified asphalt) have low and declining or flat opening rates [8] - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 361.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 981.9371 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.11%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the short - term support [9] - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating in the range of 2983 - 3041 [8][9] - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of the European and American economic recession [11][12] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's asphalt market overview, including the prices, basis, inventory, production, and profit of different contracts and varieties, as well as their changes compared with the previous values [15] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [17][18][19][20] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Illustrates the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][38] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42] - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44][45] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47] - **Production**: Displays the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50][51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Illustrates the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [52][54] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Shows the historical monthly production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [55][56] - **Operating Rate**: Displays the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [58][59] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: Shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [60][61] - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Displays the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [63][64][65][66] - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: Shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [67][68] - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: Displays the historical factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [70][71] - **Import - Export Situation**: Shows the historical import and export trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [73][74][76][77] - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Displays the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [79][80] - **Apparent Consumption**: Shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [82][83] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: Displays the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [85][86][87] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][91][92][93] - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: Displays the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [94][95] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: Shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97][98] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: Displays the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][101][102] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt [104]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: December 18, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP main contracts have weak disk trends, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show volatile trends today [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension of the increase plan from January to March 2026. Coal prices have declined, and coal - based production profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is relatively stable, while the demand for packaging films has weakened after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6460 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -19, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract has a weak disk trend, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and a large number of new production capacities in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension of the increase plan from January to March 2026. Coal prices have declined, and coal - based production profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have continued to decline with the strong propane price. The overall demand for plastic weaving has entered the off - season and declined, while the demand for pipes is acceptable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6250 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -4, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.1%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 538,000 tons (+1000 tons), which is bearish [6] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract has a weak disk trend, with oversupply in the fundamentals, the propane price driving the disk, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and a large number of new production capacities in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6460 (-60), the price of the 05 contract is 6479 (-64), the basis is -19 (+4), the number of warehouse receipts is 11332 (0), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 469,000 tons (+12,000 tons) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6250 (0), the price of the 05 contract is 6254 (-2), the basis is -4 (+2), the number of warehouse receipts is 10730 (-4383), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 538,000 tons (+1000 tons), and the social PP inventory is 305,000 tons (-10,000 tons) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday, with the spot market having a general negotiation atmosphere and a relatively strong spot basis. The PTA device has been operating stably recently, and some polyester factories' phased replenishment has driven the spot basis to strengthen. The futures market fluctuates following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price had a narrow - range adjustment, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The ethylene glycol market was consolidating at a high level, and the spot basis further weakened. Affected by the news that a South China device will restart ahead of schedule, the ethylene glycol market weakened slightly. In the short - term, the ethylene glycol market is expected to be adjusted at a low level. Attention should be paid to the cost side and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 - No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA**: The spot price range was 4575 - 4635 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 13. The PTA factory inventory was 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position decreased. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range [5][6]. - **MEG**: The ethylene glycol price had a narrow - range adjustment. The spot basis further weakened, and the low - level spot transaction was around 01 contract discount of 35 yuan/ton. The inventory in East China was 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position increased. It is expected that the short - term market will be adjusted at a low level [7]. 3.3今日关注 - **PTA**: Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - **MEG**: Attention should be paid to the cost side and device changes [7]. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity showed an increasing trend, and the production and demand also changed accordingly. For example, in December 2025, the production capacity was 9472, and the production was 684 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024 to 2025, the ethylene glycol production, import, and demand also had corresponding changes. For example, in December 2025, the total supply was 252, and the total demand was 247 [12]. - **Price**: The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan increased by 9 dollars/ton to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR Taiwan, China decreased by 13 dollars/ton to 824 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA in the domestic market decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3630 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The PTA factory inventory, ethylene glycol port inventory, and other inventories showed different trends from 2021 to 2025 [41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up**: The start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, and polyester in different periods from 2021 to 2025 showed different trends [53][57]. - **Profit**: PTA processing fees, ethylene glycol production profits, and polyester fiber production profits all changed from 2022 to 2025 [13][59].