Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Bean Meal - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. The market is neutral, with the spot price at a premium to the futures, an increase in oil - mill bean meal inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving average, a reduction in short positions by the main players, and an inflow of funds. In the short term, it may be driven by US soybeans and show a weakening trend [9]. Soybeans - Soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200. The market is neutral, with the spot price slightly at a premium to the futures, an increase in oil - mill soybean inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving average, a reduction in short positions by the main players, and an outflow of funds. The price is supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports but is suppressed by high imports and expected domestic production increases [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Bean meal M2605 is in a 2740 - 2800 range, and soybean A2601 is in a 4100 - 4200 range. Analyses from multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, etc., are provided for both [9][11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans. The arrival of imported soybeans in December decreased, while oil - mill soybean inventory remained high. The decline in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig restocking, but the demand for bean meal rebounded in December. The bean meal market is in a range - bound state, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Bean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, no pressure on oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in December and the expected high yield of South American soybeans under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - Bearish factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - A large amount of data is provided, including the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets, showing the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc., over the years [33][34]. - The trading data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from December 8th to 16th, including transaction prices, volumes, and price differences, are presented [17]. - The price data of soybean and bean - meal futures and spot from December 9th to 16th are given [19]. 5. Position Data - The warehouse - receipt statistics of soybeans and bean meal from December 5th to 16th are provided, showing the changes in warehouse - receipt quantities [21]. Other Information - The bean - meal futures price declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly [24]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the bean - meal production in September increased year - on - year [26]. - The procurement of domestic downstream industries rebounded from a low level, and the pick - up volume remained high [28]. - The spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract widened slightly [30]. - The US soybean export inspection increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year [47]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in November but increased year - on - year overall [49]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high, and the bean - meal inventory returned to a high level [50]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, and the stocking demand increased [52]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the bean - meal production in September increased year - on - year [54]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated with the US soybeans, and the on - disk profit fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [58]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [62]. - The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the sentiment in the market is fluctuating due to news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 96,940 - 100,540 [8]. - The positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. The negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views [8] - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,998 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 103,658 tons, a 0.02% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,524 tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 98,042 yuan/ton, a 0.21% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of 4,215 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 95,062 yuan/ton, a 0.37% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of 3,579 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation. - **Basis**: On December 16th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4,750 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which was bearish. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 19,161 tons, a 7.73% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 42,738 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,570 tons, a 0.88% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 111,469 tons, a 1.87% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. - **Market**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20, which was bullish. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, which was bearish. - **Expectation**: In November 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 95,350 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's output will be 98,210 physical tons, a 3.00% month - on - month increase. The import volume in November 2025 was 25,500 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's import volume will be 27,000 physical tons, a 5.88% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase and is lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis** - The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 2.04% to 1,248 US dollars/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.74% to 95,850 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.76% to 93,350 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data** - The weekly operating rate was 83.52%, an 8.18% increase from the previous value, a 10.86% increase. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase from the previous month [18]. - **Demand - side Data** - The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, a 5.14% increase from the previous month. The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 87,480 tons, a 5.32% decrease from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 84,100 GWh, a 10.66% increase from the previous month [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production** - The price and production of lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, showed different trends over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed, and the weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed fluctuations in different years [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [28]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating Rate and Production** - The weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends over time. The monthly output and capacity of lithium carbonate also changed [31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [38]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production** - The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly output of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide also changed [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds** - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, including lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, showed different trends over time [46][48][51]. 3.7 Inventory - **Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide** - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, showed different trends over time [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Sales of Lithium Battery** - The price, production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries, including power batteries and energy - storage batteries, showed different trends over time [57][59]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production of Ternary Precursor** - The price, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also showed different situations in each month from 2024 to 2025 [62][65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production of Ternary Material** - The price, cost, production, and export volume of ternary materials showed different trends over time. The weekly inventory of ternary materials also changed [68][70]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production of Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium** - The price, cost, production, and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time. The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium also changed [72][75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export of New Energy Vehicle** - The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [80][84].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3270，基差196；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存338.7万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-12-17） 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力；中性 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-17） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，多翻空；偏空 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦煤： 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：由于下游焦化厂利润较低以及下游钢厂检修停产增多，铁水产量继续下滑，焦煤需求支撑正 在走弱，因此下游对高价煤种的接受度并不高，采购偏谨慎。叠加淡季钢材需求持续疲软，或对焦煤价 格仍形成下行压力，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运行。 1、基本面：煤矿多以保安全生产为主，供应基本维 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利多： 利空： 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，总体供需宽松，港口库存累库，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价826，基差65；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价837，基差76，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存16111.47万吨，环比增加，同比增加；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线走平；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多增；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，港口累库，震荡偏空思路 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-12-17） 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石港口现货价格 铁矿 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: December 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand, and it is expected that the trend of the UR contract today will be volatile [4] Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. On the demand side, both agricultural and industrial demand are mainly based on needs. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased significantly year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine is stable. The price difference between domestic and foreign exports is large, but the short - term export demand has declined, and the overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1670 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 3, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] Inventory Analysis - UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons (- 38,000 tons), which is bearish [4] Disk Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] Main Position Analysis - The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The futures price of the urea main contract is weakly declining. Industrial demand is mainly based on needs, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand has declined, and the overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factor: Inventory de - stocking [5] - Bearish factors: Domestic supply exceeds demand; Daily production reaches a new high [5] - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1670, unchanged; the price of Shandong spot is 1700, unchanged; the price of Henan spot is 1670, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2729 [6] Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1673, down 8; the basis is - 3, up 8; the price of UR01 is 1630, up 1; the price of UR05 is 1673, down 8; the price of UR09 is 1681, down 6 [6] Inventory Data - The number of warehouse receipts is 11,214, down 31; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons; UR manufacturer inventory is 1.234 million tons; UR port inventory is 123,000 tons [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show an overall upward trend, with certain fluctuations in the import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] 2. LLDPE Analysis 2.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension of the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, and coal - based profits stabilized. Agricultural film demand was stable, while packaging film demand weakened after the peak season. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6520 (-60), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4]. 2.2 Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -23, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, considered neutral [4]. 2.3 Inventory Analysis - PE comprehensive inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), which is bearish [4]. 2.4 Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish market [4]. 2.5 Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. 2.6 Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is weak on the market, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 2.7 Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [5] - Bearish factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5] 3. PP Analysis 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, in November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month. OPEC+ maintained the production plan, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, coal - based profits stabilized, and PDH profits continued to decline with the strong propane price. Plastic weaving demand entered the off - season, while pipe demand was okay. The current PP delivery spot price is 6250 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -6, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.1%, considered neutral [6]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - PP comprehensive inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), which is bearish [6]. 3.4 Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish market [6]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing but still bearish [6]. 3.6 Outlook - The PP main contract is weak on the market, with oversupply in the fundamentals. The rising propane price affects the market, industrial inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate today [6]. 3.7 Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [7] - Bearish factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] 4. Market Data 4.1 LLDPE Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | Spot Delivery | Price 6520, change -60 | | LL Import US Dollar | Price 765, change 0 | | LL Import Conversion | Price 6633, change - 5 | | LL Import Spread | -113, change -55 | | 05 Contract | Price 6543, change -14 | | Basis | -23, change -46 | | L01 | Price 6516, change - 6 | | L05 | Price 6543, change -14 | | L09 | Price 6568, change -15 | | Warehouse Receipts | Quantity 11332, change 0 | | PE Comprehensive Factory Warehouse | Quantity not clear, change 0 | | PE Social Inventory | Quantity not clear, change 12 | [8] 4.2 PP Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | Spot Delivery | Price 6250, change 0 | | PP Import US Dollar | Price 750, change 0 | | PP Import Conversion | Price 6506, change - 5 | | PP Import Spread | -256, change 5 | | 05 Contract | Price 6256, change 2 | | Basis | - 6, change - 2 | | PP01 | Price 6192, change 14 | | PP05 | Price 6256, change 2 | | PP09 | Price 6291, change 14 | | Warehouse Receipts | Quantity 15113, change -634 | | PP Comprehensive Factory Warehouse | Quantity not clear, change 0 | | PP Social Inventory | Quantity not clear, change 0 | [8] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 5.1 Polyethylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. 5.2 Polypropylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The industry's supply-demand mismatch has not improved effectively. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1170 yuan/ton, up 4.19%; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1140 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; the main basis was -30 yuan/ton, down 528.57% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3. Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method was -147.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co-production method was -129 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - **Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.35%, and the weekly output was 73.54 tons, including 39.78 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][21] - **Changes in Production Capacity**: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [22] 4. Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales Ratio**: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash was 106.02% [25] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28] 5. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory in soda ash factories nationwide was 149.43 tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5-year average [34] 6. Fundamentals - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply-demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35] 7. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply has been slow [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the natural rubber industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The market is supported at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber starts to increase, the spot is strong, domestic inventories start to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The overall situation is neutral The market is supported at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption such as automobile production and sales is seasonally rising, and tire production reaches a new high in the same period, but tire industry exports are declining [4][23][29][32] Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, and the inventory in Qingdao area has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year Recently, the exchange inventory has risen slightly, and the Qingdao area inventory has rebounded [4][14][17] Import - The import volume of natural rubber has declined [20] Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full latex (non - deliverable) fell on December 16, 2025, and the basis weakened on the same day The spot price in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is quoted in US dollars [8][35] Basis - The spot price is 14,900, and the basis is - 250, showing a bearish trend On December 16, 2025, the basis weakened [4][35] Multi - Empty Factors Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is a domestic anti - involution trend [6] Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to move in a sideways consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Oil Type Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with production cuts falling short of expectations. Current shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Entering the subsequent production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,200, with a basis of 328, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and production cuts are less than expected. Entering the subsequent production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,440, with a basis of 30, indicating a slight premium of the spot price over the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral, and production cuts are less than expected. Entering the subsequent production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,700, with a basis of 637, indicating a significant premium of the spot price over the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [4] 4. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]