【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月02日 【行情分析】 12月2日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至11 月28日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.39个百分点至44.3%，农膜进入旺季尾声，农膜订单开始下降， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存略有下降，包装膜订单同样小幅下降，整体PE下游开工率仍 处于近年同期偏低位水平。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，俄 罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗 普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不大， 原油价格低位震荡。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE在10月投产，70万吨/年 的中石油广西石化11月投产。塑料开工率略有上升。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单开始下降，旺季成色 不及预期，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求开始减少，农膜价格开始下跌，预计后续下游开工 率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，贸易商对后市谨慎，普遍降价积极出货。国家发展改 革委会同有关部门 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to move in a range. Although there are some positive factors such as the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the meeting on price competition standards, the recent upside space is limited due to factors like high inventory, upcoming traditional demand off - season, and falling quotes from China Taiwan's Formosa Plastics [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC production capacity utilization increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream PVC production capacity utilization is basically stable. India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about China's exports to India, and the anti - dumping tax is likely to be cancelled. However, Formosa Plastics' December quotes fell by 30 - 60 dollars/ton, and last week's export orders decreased. Social inventory increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time. The meeting on price competition standards gives some boost to commodities, but factors like the end of maintenance at some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and the upcoming demand off - season limit the upside space [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and moved in a range, with a low of 4544 yuan/ton, a high of 4576 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 4575 yuan/ton, up 0.31% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 47,480 lots to 1,024,038 lots [2] - On December 2, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4500 yuan/ton, the V2601 contract's futures closing price was 4489 yuan/ton, the basis was - 75 yuan/ton, weakening by 3 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the operation of some plants such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai improved, and the PVC production capacity utilization increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22%. New production capacities including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua are in production or trial - run at different loads [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, down 14.7% year - on - year; the sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year - on - year; the new construction area of houses was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.8% year - on - year; and the completed area of houses was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.9% year - on - year. As of the week ending November 30, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% week - on - week but is still near the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week ending November 27, PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that crude oil prices will oscillate at a low level. Although the market is currently in a state of supply surplus, the recent difficulty in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by Ukrainian drones, and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut are likely to support the price [1]. Summary by Section Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in Q1 2026 [1]. - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that US refined oil inventories increased more than expected, and due to increased net imports, US crude oil inventories also increased more than expected, leading to a slight increase in overall oil inventories [1][4]. - US crude oil production is near its historical high, but the number of active US oil drilling rigs decreased by 12, raising expectations of limited US crude oil growth at low prices [1]. - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to achieve in the near term. There is a concern about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya due to geopolitical tensions [1]. - The market is worried about crude oil demand as the consumer peak season ends, the US ISM manufacturing index in November decreased month - on - month and has been in contraction for nine consecutive months. OPEC+ continues to increase production, Middle - East exports are rising, and global floating crude oil storage is increasing, resulting in a supply - surplus situation [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract, 2601, rose 0.09% to 453.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 450.1 yuan/ton and a high of 456.0 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1458 to 31,766 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报: It expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC月报: It adjusted the third - quarter global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA: Its annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050. The IEA月报 raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day, the 2026 supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day, the 2025 demand growth rate by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and the 2026 demand growth rate by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day [3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 21, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected: 55,000 barrels), 4.50% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected: 745,000 barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected: 556,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 68,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was revised down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day. Its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September, reaching 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week of November 21 decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day [4]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year [4]. - Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year [6]. - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. The overall US crude oil product single - week supply increased by 0.41% month - on - month due to the rebound in gasoline and other oil products [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 基本面转好，盘面有抗跌性 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 2 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内偏强。现货价格稳中偏涨，虽成交走弱，但工厂 代发相对充足，挺价意愿强。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价 范围在 1620-1670 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端。气头装置限气减产拉开序幕， 昨日内蒙部分装置已开启检修，后续西南地区本月也将逐渐开始停产减产，目 前日产依然处于 19 万吨-20 吨之间。农需秋季肥扫尾后，储备型农需逢低拿货 为主。复合肥工厂开工负荷逐步抬升，东北地区复合肥工厂开启生产，已有部 分工厂满负荷。工厂处于冬储生产阶段，12 月份将继续高负荷生产，目前预收 订单生产中，后续厂内成品库存将继续增加，冬储提供需求支撑，尿素价格预 计窄幅波动，呈现一定的抗跌性。其他工业需求刚需托底为主，房地产低迷拖 累开工。终端交易顺畅，虽日产一直处于同比偏高位置，但库存维持去化，且 本期已降至同比偏低水平。综合来看，供应端有减量预期而需求端刚需及冬储 需求托底，行情抗跌性强，短期偏强整理。 【期现行情】 现货方面：现货价格稳中偏涨，虽成交走弱，但工厂代发相对充足，挺价 意愿强 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to experience weak and volatile price trends. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand will further weaken, and the current market is cautious about winter storage contracts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, some refineries will switch production, and the operating rate will rise slightly. [1] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. Road asphalt operating rate dropped by 5 percentage points to 29% due to capital and weather constraints. With the drop in northern temperatures, road construction is ending, demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited. [1] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years. [1] - Crude Oil: The latest sanctions by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 2.41% to 2,916 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,910 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,983 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 14,100 to 136,104 lots. [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 2,960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 44 yuan/ton, at a neutral level. [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years. From January to October, national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation from January to October was - 4.3%, and that of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%. [4] - Inventory: As of the week of November 28, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years. [4]

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Report Summary Key Information - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin standard and trading limit of the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract. Effective from the settlement on December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. Starting from the trading session on December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients on the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [2] - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration has ordered Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd.'s Xinzhuang Coal Mine to suspend production for rectification for 2 days due to major accident hazards [2] - The ANRPC monthly rubber report shows that in October 2025, natural rubber prices showed a bearish trend. In 2025, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase slightly by 1.3% compared to 2024, and demand is expected to increase by 0.8% [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across China was 117.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.09%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 65.35 million tons, a decrease of 1.36 million tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.04% [2] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI index in November dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, remaining below the 50 boom - bust line for nine consecutive months, marking the largest contraction in four months. The new orders index dropped to the fastest contraction rate since July, and the backlog of orders had the largest decline in seven months [3] Plate Performance - Key areas of focus include urea, coking coal, silver, asphalt, and PVC [4] - In the night session, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.77%, the precious metals sector rose 30.31%, the oilseeds and oils sector rose 9.08%, the non - ferrous metals sector rose 23.79%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.75%, the coal, coking, steel, and ore sector rose 12.35%, the energy sector rose 2.84%, the chemical sector rose 10.87%, the grain sector rose 1.39%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 3.84% [4] Plate Position - The document presents the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, but specific data is not clearly stated in text form [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Annual Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.65 | 0.65 | 16.77 | | | SSE 50 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 11.51 | | | CSI 300 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 16.30 | | | CSI 500 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 24.03 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.53 | - 0.53 | 15.83 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.67 | 0.67 | 29.78 | | | German DAX | - 1.04 | - 1.04 | 18.49 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 1.89 | - 1.89 | 23.58 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.18 | - 0.18 | 18.71 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.12 | 0.09 | - 0.81 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.10 | 0.09 | - 0.66 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.03 | 0.03 | - 0.55 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.41 | 0.41 | 2.03 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.71 | 1.97 | - 17.20 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.30 | 0.30 | 61.24 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.26 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 2.12 | 2.12 | 36.63 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.03 | - 0.03 | - 8.36 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.00 | - 5.76 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro aspect**: The end of the US government shutdown and the release of economic data influence the market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut. Currently, it is generally believed that the probability of a December rate cut is high, which is positive for copper prices. In China, the manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business conditions [6]. - **Supply aspect**: After the mudslide accident at the second - largest copper mine in Indonesia, it plans to restart large - scale production in phases from the second quarter of 2026, which will ease the tight copper ore supply and stabilize copper prices. Due to smelter overhauls in October and November, domestic copper production is expected to increase in December. The copper smelting processing fee fluctuates around $42 per dry ton. The CSPT members have reached a consensus to cut production by more than 10% in 2026 [6]. - **Demand aspect**: As of September 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.3218 million tons. After the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", although the copper price continued to rise, the downstream's resistance to high prices led to a decline in buying interest. However, the rigid demand from the power grid and energy storage sectors will prevent a significant decrease in demand [6]. - **Overall**: In November, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend. In the short - to - medium term, copper prices are expected to be strong. The future movement of copper prices depends on the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut. Although the demand is in the off - season and has limited support for prices, the industry's production cut plan will stimulate price increases [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Environment - **US employment data**: In September, the US added 119,000 non - farm jobs (previous value: 22,000), and the unemployment rate was 4.4% (previous value: 4.3%). The non - farm data for October - November will be released after the December FOMC meeting [10]. - **China's PMI**: In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business conditions [14]. Copper Supply - side Data Copper Concentrate Supply - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 674,000 tons, an increase of 213,000 tons from the previous month. In October 2025, China imported 2.45 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%; the cumulative import from January to October was 25.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [23]. - **Production**: The second - largest copper mine in Indonesia plans to restart large - scale production in phases from the second quarter of 2026, which will ease the tight copper ore supply. In September, the global copper concentrate production was 1.914 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1,000 tons; from January to September, the global copper concentrate production was 17.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons [23]. Smelter Fees - As of November 28, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was - $42.7 per dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.35 cents per pound. The copper smelting processing fee fluctuates around $42 per dry ton. The CSPT members plan to cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to improve the market environment and deal with the distorted copper concentrate processing fee problem. The industry generally expects the 2026 long - term contract price to be negative [27]. Scrap Copper Supply - In October 2025, China imported 196,600 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 1.8956 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.97%. Japan is the largest supplier of scrap copper [32]. Refined Copper Supply - **Production**: In October, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 29,400 tons month - on - month (- 2.62%), but was 9.63% higher year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative production increased by 1.1914 million tons year - on - year. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in November will continue to decline, but with the resumption of production in December, domestic production will increase [37]. - **Import**: In October 2025, China's refined copper imports were 323,144.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is the largest source of imports [37]. Copper Demand Conditions Apparent Demand - As of October 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.3218 million tons. After the peak seasons, due to the high copper price, the downstream's buying interest decreased, but the rigid demand from the power grid and energy storage sectors will prevent a significant decrease in demand [45]. Copper Products - From January to October 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 20.124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The production of household air - conditioners decreased, and the high - price copper raw materials squeezed profits, so the copper tube operating rate continued to decline. The copper foil market was relatively good, but due to the change in the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy, the copper foil demand is expected to weaken [48]. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; the installed wind power capacity was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. From January to October, the national power generation equipment's average utilization hours were 2,619 hours, a decrease of 260 hours compared with the same period last year [52]. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to October, the real estate development enterprises' housing construction area was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [57]. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In October, the monthly sales of new energy vehicles were 1.715 million, a year - on - year increase of 20%, and the proportion in the total monthly new vehicle sales exceeded 50% for the first time. From January 1, 2026, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will be restored [61]. Copper Inventory Data Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - As of November 28, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 159,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.07%. The COMEX copper inventory was 418,700 short tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.79% and a year - on - year increase of 361.68%. The large accumulation of copper in the US has led to an imbalance in the global copper structure [68]. Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Bonded Area Copper Inventories - As of November 28, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic copper inventory was 35,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 602 tons (- 1.68%) and a year - on - year increase of 66.24%. The copper inventory increased temporarily due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, but overall it was still being depleted. As of November 27, the total copper inventory in the Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 113,200 tons, showing a downward trend [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply pressure of polyolefins remains high, with new production capacities being put into operation. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, and the peak - season performance is below expectations. The demand in the north is decreasing, and the follow - up of orders is limited. The cost support from crude oil is weak. Although there is some boost from the anti - disorderly competition policy, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and polyolefins have insufficient upward momentum. It is expected that the upward space of polyolefins in December is limited. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The plastic operating rate has dropped to around 88%, at a neutral level, and the PP enterprise operating rate remains at around 83%, at a slightly low - neutral level. New production capacities such as ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical HDPE, and PP have been put into operation, and more are expected in December. [3] - As of the week of November 28, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, and the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83%. However, the plastic - braiding operating rate of the PP drawing downstream decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%. [3] - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - neutral level in recent years. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline in the future. [3] 3.2. Market Review - In late November, the decline of the spot price was greater than that of the futures price, and the basis of plastics decreased but remained at a slightly low - neutral level. The PP basis continued to decline slightly and was at a low level. [15][20] 3.3. Plastic Production - In October 2025, the PE maintenance volume decreased by 14.29% month - on - month to 45.63 million tons, and the PE production increased by 6.54% month - on - month to 2.8836 million tons, reaching a record high. [24] - In October 2025, the PP maintenance volume increased by 2.47% month - on - month to 776,100 tons, and the PP production increased by 4.63% month - on - month to 3.5038 million tons, also reaching a record high. [32] 3.4. Plastic Operating Rate - In October 2025, the PE operating rate increased by 1.58 percentage points to 82.01%. Recently, the plastic operating rate has dropped to around 88%. [28] - In October 2025, the PP operating rate increased by 0.94 percentage points to 77.26%. Recently, the PP enterprise operating rate remains at around 83%. [36] 3.5. PE and PP Imports and Exports - In October 2025, China's PE imports were 1.0112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.23%, and exports were 83,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.42%. The net imports decreased by 18.99% year - on - year. [43] - In October 2025, China's PP imports were 273,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.16%, and exports were 235,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.62%. It is expected that PP net imports will decline. [49] 3.6. Polyolefin Downstream - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products was 65.573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and the export amount was 614.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of - 1.0%. [53] - As of the week of November 28, the PE downstream operating rate decreased, and the PP downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the plastic - braiding operating rate of the PP drawing downstream decreased. [57] 3.7. Polyolefin Inventory As of November 28, the petrochemical early - morning inventory was flat at 650,000 tons compared with the previous period, and was 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the inventory is at a slightly high - neutral level in recent years. [61] 3.8. Polyolefin Profit In November, the profits of all processes of LLDPE and PP were in the red. Except for a slight increase in the profit of methanol - made LLDPE and PP, the profits of other processes declined. [65]

冠通期货研究报告 --2025年12月PVC月度报告 发布日期：2025年12月01日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情回顾 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 数据来源：博易大师 冠通研究 3 PVC上游 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，上周PVC开工率环比增加1.39个百分点至80.22%，PVC开工率继续增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。12月PVC计划检修 的装置较少，预计PVC开工维持在高位。PVC下游开工率基本稳定，主要是软制品在支撑。12月将进入传统的需求淡季，预计下游 开工率将持续回落。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC 以价换量，只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下 ...