早盘速递 2025/11/12 热点资讯 1. 中国人民银行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告。其中提出，实施好适度宽松的货币政策。综合运用多种工具， 保持社会融资条件相对宽松，同时继续完善货币政策框架，强化货币政策的执行和传导。保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。 2. 中国汽车工业协会今天（11日）发布的最新数据显示，今年1至10月份，我国新能源汽车产销量继续实现较高增长。其中， 10月份新能源汽车月度新车销量首次超过了汽车新车总销量的50%。 3. 国家发展改革委组织召开2025—2026年供暖季能源保供视频会议。会议要求稳定能源生产供应，加强煤炭生产组织和运输 保障。确保各类电源应开尽开、稳发满发，充分发挥风电、光伏的电力电量支撑作用。 4. Mysteel卫星数据显示，2025年11月3日-11月9日期间， 澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量1262.6万吨，环比上 升45.8万吨，呈小幅累库趋势，当前库存水平略低于下半年以来的中位线。 5. 美国总统特朗普表示，对印度征收高额关税是因为它购买了俄罗斯石油，印 ...

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Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is likely to increase with some refineries planning to resume production, while the demand will gradually weaken. The crude oil price is also oscillating, and the asphalt futures price is showing a weak downward trend [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month-on-month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year-on-year [1]. - Last week, most of the downstream industries' operating rates increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 1 percentage point to 34% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather [1]. - In the East China region, the supply and shipments decreased significantly last week. The national shipments decreased by 6.79% to 308,800 tons week-on-week, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Jincheng Petrochemical plan to resume production, which will increase asphalt production [1]. - The market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not changed fundamentally. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price is oscillating [1]. - The concentrated release of long-term low-price resources from refineries has led to a significant decline in the asphalt basis in Shandong recently, which is currently at a neutral level. The spot price has continued to decline, and the asphalt futures price has shown a weak downward trend [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 0.56% to 3,050 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,015 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,064 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 14,840 to 193,828 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -40 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and PetroChina Qinhuangdao stopped asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but remained negative. The fixed - asset investment in road transportation from January to September 2025 decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly rebounding from -3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. The fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 increased by 1.1% year-on-year, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - As of the week of November 7, most of the downstream industries' operating rates increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 1 percentage point to 34% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - From January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4]. - As of the week of November 7, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, in a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly New production capacities were put into operation, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly The peak season of agricultural film was not as good as expected, and the downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient Traders were cautious about the future market and actively sold goods at reduced prices There was no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry It is expected that plastics will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 11, the plastic operating rate was around 88%, a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate decreased 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month The agricultural film was in the peak season with increasing orders and stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly due to factors such as Russia's oil sanctions and OPEC+ production decisions New production capacities were put into operation, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly The peak season of agricultural film was not as expected, and the downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient Traders were cautious and sold goods at reduced prices There was no anti - involution policy in the plastic industry, which would affect the subsequent market It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6758 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6815 yuan/ton, and closed at 6760 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.41% The position decreased by 1974 lots to 584333 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton LLDPE was reported at 6740 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8770 - 9580 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7010 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, a neutral level - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the PE downstream operating rate decreased 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month The agricultural film was in the peak season with increasing orders and stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly The overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 71000 tons, 1000 tons higher than the same period last year It was at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64/barrel The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $730/ton month - on - month, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $740/ton month - on - month [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The OPEC+ eight - country decision to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter, but unexpectedly relieve the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December. With the end of the peak demand season, the overall oil product inventory has slightly increased. The market is worried about crude oil demand. Although the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern, factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela are at play. US - China relations have not fundamentally changed, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate in the near term [1] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, the OPEC+ eight - country decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year, and the next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30th. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the acceleration of OPEC+ production increase have all contributed to the supply - surplus situation. The US has sanctioned Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated. There is a possibility that India will gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. The meeting between the leaders of China and the US is in line with market expectations, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 0.30% to 458.8 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 457.0 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 462.1 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 1,784 to 23,898 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA expects the global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It has also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. As of the week ending October 31st, US crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 643,000 barrels. OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day, while its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day. US crude oil production reached a new high of 13.651 million barrels per day in the week ending October 31st [3] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 0.56% to 8.874 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.63% to 3.71 million barrels per day. The single - week supply of US crude oil products decreased by 4.35% month - on - month [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 内需支撑不足，盘面下挫 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 11 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内下跌，基本收复上周五涨幅。下游畏高，上游工厂 多执行前期低价订单，预计短期现货报价将继续下调。山东、河南及河北尿素工 厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1550-1600 元/吨，个别工厂低端价格略有下调。 基本面来看，供应端基本稳定，日产在 20 万吨左右震荡运行，复产及新投产支 撑高供应的运行。煤炭原料端，供暖旺季价格快速回升，今年冷冬预期下，成本 线预计持续支撑尿素下方。期货盘面降温后，市场高价成交抵触，下游需求以储 备型内需为主，苏皖地区的小麦肥收尾，复合肥工厂刚需拿货，目前工厂开工温 和上行，冬储政策尚未明确，东北地区工厂预计月底逐渐开工，备肥节奏缓慢， 下游需求目前难以支撑价格。供需相对宽松，上游厂内尿素库存继续增加，且部 分上游工厂以淡储为主，谨慎出货，预计库存继续环比回升。出口消息目前基本 被盘面消化，而疲弱内需难以支撑行情，期现共振下行，现货依然贴水于期货， 但基差环比收窄。 2025 年 11 月 11 日，尿素仓单数量 6812 张，环比上个交易日+685 张，辽宁 化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as limited downstream order follow - up, insufficient stock - up demand during Double Eleven, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the plastic weaving开工率 rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than last year [1][4] - On November 11, new maintenance devices such as Hainan Ethylene were added, causing the PP enterprise开工率 to drop to around 83%, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring dropped to around 24% [1] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently it is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was in line with market expectations, OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PP2601 contract decreased in price with increasing positions, closing at 6464 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The position increased by 2552 lots to 655,336 lots [2] - In the spot market, PP spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with drawstring priced at 6260 - 6570 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 7, maintenance devices such as the new second line of CNOOC Daxie restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of November 7, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - For raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $20 per ton to $710 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The news that the US government is about to end the shutdown and the friendly trade between China and the US have boosted market risk appetite, leading to a slightly stronger upward trend in Shanghai copper futures. However, attention should be paid to the release of economic data after the government resumes operations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher and trended lower, with a slightly stronger upward trend during intraday trading. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude refining capacity of 1.5 million tons, and the expected maintenance impact is 48,000 tons. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters is 85.4%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper is 63.3%, a 1.0% increase from the previous period. Affected by Document No. 770, the procurement of anode copper is still affected, but after the policies in some regions become clear, the operations are gradually recovering. It is expected that the supply of scrap copper will increase in the future to make up for the tight supply of copper ore. Last week, the copper price decreased compared to the previous period, and the price reduction led to an increase in the purchasing volume of downstream enterprises. However, the peak season this year was not as good as in previous years and has basically ended. The short - term increase in purchasing due to the price correction has not reversed the weak demand of downstream enterprises. The operating rate of downstream copper products has decreased compared to the previous period, and the performance of traditional terminal industries is average. Since the end of October, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been continuously increasing. As of November 7, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 43,400 tons, a 9.28% increase from the previous week [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and trended higher, then declined during intraday trading. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is - 20 yuan/ton. On November 10, 2025, the LME official price was 10,815 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 315 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on November 10, the spot crude refining fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, the SHFE copper inventory is 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,817 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, an increase of 1,425 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 372,300 short tons, an increase of 2,950 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PVC industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased export expectations, high inventory, and a sluggish real - estate market [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate has started to decline slightly and is still at a low level. India has postponed the BIS policy for six months until December 24, 2025. The price quoted by Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in November has been reduced by $30 - 40 per ton. India has raised the anti - dumping tax on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton, weakening the export expectations of Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. Traders are starting to wait and see, and last week's export orders decreased compared to the previous week. The social inventory has increased slightly and is still high. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real - estate market still takes time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities are in operation, and there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract increased in positions while oscillating downward, with a minimum price of 4,570 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 4,613 yuan per ton, and finally closed at 4,572 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.74%. The position volume increased by 63,608 lots to 1,407,131 lots [2] Basis - On November 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,520 yuan per ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,572 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 52 yuan per ton, weakening by 2 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply Side - The production of devices such as Ningbo Zhenyang and Inner Mongolia Yili has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons, and Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons, are in different stages of operation [4] Demand Side - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the residential sales area decreased by 5.6%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 7.6%. The new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the new residential construction area decreased by 18.3%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The housing completion area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%; the residential completion area decreased by 18.3%. As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 32.15% compared to the previous week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5] Inventory - As of the week of November 6, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons, a 26.42% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and is still high [6]

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1630 1630 0 河南 1620 1620 0 山东 1610 1620 -10 山西 1500 1500 0 江苏 1610 1610 0 安徽 1610 1620 -10 黑龙江 1620 1620 0 内蒙古 1610 1610 0 河北东光 1610 1610 0 山东华鲁 1630 1630 0 江苏灵谷 1670 1670 0 安徽昊源 1600 1600 0 山东05基差 -134 -147 13 山东01基差 -153 -170 17 河北05基差 -144 -137 -7 河北01基差 -163 -160 -3 1-5价差 67 83 -16 5-9价差 -19 -23 4 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 6812 6415 397 中东FOB 378 378 0 美湾FOB 389.5 389.5 0 埃及FOB 486 486 0 波罗的海FOB 380 380 0 巴西CFR 425 425 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 ...