Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased downstream demand, and uncertain cost - related factors [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 12, the restart of maintenance devices at Hengli Petrochemical led to an increase in the plastic operating rate to about 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level. The downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85%. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing orders, the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is moderately high. The crude oil price fluctuated within a narrow range. New production capacities were put into operation, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The industry lacks effective anti - involution policies [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract fluctuated with increased positions, closing at 6788 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous day, and the position increased by 2586 lots to 586919 lots [2] - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6740 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8770 - 9430 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6900 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 11, the maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 88%, at a moderate level [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85%. The agricultural film was in the peak season with stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a moderately high level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around 64 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 730 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 US dollars/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, and copper prices are oscillating with a bullish bias. The news that the US government is about to end the shutdown and the friendly trade relations between China and the US have boosted market risk appetite. The lack of US economic data has led to significant differences in the market's view on a December interest rate cut, causing the US dollar index to weaken recently, which supports copper prices. However, the peak season performance is weaker than in previous years, and the downstream demand is in a weak state. The inventory of copper has been accumulating recently [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Supply**: As the long - term contract negotiation approaches, there is still great uncertainty in the long - term contract price and settlement method. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons, with an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters is 85.4%, a 3.1% month - on - month decrease; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper is 63.3%, a 1.0% month - on - month increase. Affected by Document No. 770, the purchase of anode copper is still affected, but after the policies in some regions are clarified, the operation is gradually recovering, and it is expected that the subsequent supply of scrap copper will increase to make up for the tight supply of copper ore [1]. - **Demand**: The peak season performance is weaker than in previous years and is now basically over. The short - term callback in purchasing has not reversed the weak state of downstream demand. The operating rate of downstream copper products has decreased month - on - month. According to a Mysteel sample survey, the domestic refined copper rod output in October was 756,000 tons, a 10.99% month - on - month decrease [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been accumulating since the end of October and is now at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Recently, with the high copper prices, the inventory has continued to increase [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, oscillating with a bullish bias within the day [1][4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China is 50 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is - 10 yuan/ton. On November 11, 2025, the LME official price was 10,804 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 27 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply - side - As of the latest data on November 10, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 cents/pound [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory is 44,100 tons, an increase of 1,527 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, an increase of 375 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 376,600 short tons, an increase of 2,935 short tons from the previous period [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - PP downstream demand is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. With the restart of some maintenance devices and the increase in enterprise operating rates, it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46% week - on - week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 12, some maintenance devices such as a line of Guangxi Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstrings increased to about 26%. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. The cost side is in a narrow - range shock. The supply has increased, while the downstream demand has limited follow - up, and there is no actual anti - involution policy in the PP industry [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6434 yuan/ton, the highest was 6474 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6460 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.11%. The position decreased by 4959 lots to 636592 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions were mostly stable, with drawstrings quoted at 6260 - 6570 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 12, some maintenance devices such as a line of Guangxi Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 84%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46% week - on - week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 01 oscillated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $710 per ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is oscillating. Supply-side开工率 has declined, production is expected to increase, demand will gradually weaken, and the futures price is weakly oscillating due to factors such as crude oil price trends and the release of low-cost resources from refineries [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month-on-month and 11.0% year-on-year. The national shipment volume decreased by 6.79% to 30.88 million tons week-on-week. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly and remained at the lowest level in recent years. Some refineries plan to resume production, and asphalt output will increase [1] - Demand: The开工率 of most downstream industries of asphalt increased last week, but was restricted by funds and weather. Northern projects are rushing to work, but subsequent demand will gradually weaken, and the south is inquiring about low-cost supplies due to increased rainfall [1] - Crude oil: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the Sino-US leaders' meeting met market expectations, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices oscillated [1] - Price: The forward low-cost resources of refineries were released intensively, the basis of asphalt in Shandong weakened and is currently at a neutral level, the spot price followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price oscillated weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.86% to 3063 yuan/ton, near the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3047 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3076 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 4444 to 198,272 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -53 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and PetroChina Qinhuangdao stopped producing asphalt, and the asphalt开工率 decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry was -2.7%, a slight rebound from -3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January - August 2025 [4] - Downstream开工率: As of the week of November 7, the开工率 of most downstream industries of asphalt increased, with the road asphalt开工率 increasing by 1 percentage point to 34%, slightly exceeding the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 percentage point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion less due to the high base [4] - Inventory: As of the week of November 7, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the close on November 12, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver, tin, and crude oil rose, while container shipping, eggs, and jujubes declined. There were also fluctuations in stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The flow of funds into and out of different contracts varied [6][7]. - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and international trade situations. For example, copper prices are affected by supply uncertainties and weak downstream demand; lithium carbonate prices are supported by supply - demand tightness; and crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical issues [9][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of November 12, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Silver, tin, butadiene rubber, SC crude oil, rapeseed oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and iron ore rose over 1%, while container shipping, eggs, and jujubes had significant drops. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also had different trends. In terms of funds, some contracts had inflows while others had outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Supply: With long - term contract negotiations approaching, there is uncertainty in long - term contract prices and settlement methods. In November, 5 smelters are expected to conduct maintenance, affecting 4.80 million tons of production. The开工 rate of copper concentrate smelters decreased, while that of smelters using scrap copper or anode copper increased. Scrap copper supply is expected to increase [9] - Demand: The peak season was weaker than previous years, and downstream demand remained weak. Copper product开工 rates declined, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Supply: In October, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China decreased year - on - year, but domestic production continued to grow. The开工 rate increased [11] - Demand: Supported by the strong performance of energy - storage batteries, downstream procurement was smooth. The production of power, energy - storage, and consumer batteries increased, and new - energy vehicle sales also grew [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December but pause in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco lowered prices for Asian markets. US crude production reached a new high, and overall oil inventories increased slightly [12] - Demand: The peak consumption season ended, and market concerns about demand increased due to factors like the decline in the US manufacturing index [12] - Geopolitical factors: US sanctions on Russian oil companies, the US - Venezuela military stand - off, and the attitude of Indian oil companies towards Russian oil all affect the market [12][14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: The开工 rate decreased slightly last week, and November's production is expected to decline. Some refineries plan to resume production [15] - Demand: Downstream开工 rates mostly increased, but were restricted by funds and weather. Northern projects are rushing to work, while southern demand is affected by rain [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: The开工 rate of PP enterprises increased, and new production capacity was put into operation. The proportion of standard - grade production increased [16][17] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate was at a low level in the same period. Orders had limited follow - up, and the market lacked large - scale purchases [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The开工 rate increased, and new production capacity was put into operation or in trial operation [18] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate decreased. Although the agricultural film season was in progress, the peak season was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The开工 rate increased and was at a relatively high level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and some enterprises' maintenance was about to end [20] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate declined slightly. Exports are expected to weaken, and social inventory increased [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Supply: Mongolian coal imports increased, but domestic production decreased. Policy - driven production cuts and environmental protection warnings made the supply in a tight - balance situation [21] - Demand: Steel mills'开工 and iron - water production decreased, and downstream demand was weak [22] 3.2.9 Urea - Supply: Factory复产 and new production increased the daily output, and high production is expected to continue this month [23] - Demand: Downstream high - price acceptance was average, but demand in the Northeast increased. The market was affected by export news, and inventory was decreasing [23]

Group 1: Market Prices in Mainstream Regions - The current price in Hebei is 1630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - The current price in Henan is 1610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] - The current price in Shandong is 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] - The current price in Shanxi is 1480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] - The current price in Jiangsu is 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] - The current price in Anhui is 1590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] - The current price in Heilongjiang is 1670 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] - The current price in Inner Mongolia is 1650 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] Group 2: Factory Prices - The factory price of Hebei Dongguang is 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - The factory price of Shandong Hualu is 1630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - The factory price of Jiangsu Linggu is 1670 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - The factory price of Anhui Haoyuan is 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] Group 3: Basis - Shandong 05 basis is -112 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] - Shandong 01 basis is -135 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] - Hebei 05 basis is -102 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] - Hebei 01 basis is -125 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] Group 4: Monthly Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread is 72 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous value [2] Group 5: Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts is 6958, an increase of 146 from the previous value [2] Group 6: International Quotes - The Middle East FOB price is 378 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - The US Gulf FOB price is 389.5 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - The Egypt FOB price is 486 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - The Baltic FOB price is 380 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - The Brazil CFR price is 425 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The urea market showed a pattern of opening low and then rising in the afternoon. Although downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. With upstream factory复产 and new production increasing daily output to 200,000 tons and expected to maintain high production this month, the abundant supply makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. The rising coal prices in the heating season are expected to support the urea price from the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for reserve - type domestic use, and raw material fertilizer preparation will gradually start as factories resume work. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchasing has increased, and inventory has been declining. The afternoon market rally was mainly due to export news and improved demand, but supply and high inventory still create significant upward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1643 yuan/ton, opened low and then rose in the afternoon, closing at 1655 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The trading volume was 256,120 lots, an increase of 2,098 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 2,247 lots and short positions increased by 2,515 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: Downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, but there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, with limited transactions at the high end [1][3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, an increase of 146 from the previous trading day, with all the increase from Ningling Stanley [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: On November 12, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,500 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.51% [10]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease [11]. - **Pre - sale Orders**: As of November 12, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate in the near term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be on November 30th. This will increase the supply pressure in Q4 2025 but unexpectedly relieve it in Q1 2026 [1] - Saudi Aramco has comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, cut by $1.20 per barrel [1] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the gasoline inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, but the U.S. crude oil inventory build - up also exceeded expectations, with the overall refined product inventory slightly increasing [1][3] - The U.S. crude oil production continued to reach a new historical high [1][3] - The end of the consumption peak season, the decline of the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in October, and continued contraction for eight months have led to market concerns about crude oil demand [1] - The U.S. has changed its attitude towards Russia, sanctioning two major Russian oil companies and their subsidiaries. However, Trump said he hopes to meet Putin in Budapest. The military confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela has escalated [1] - After the Russian crude oil discount widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil, but there is a possibility that it will gradually reduce imports due to a new tariff agreement with the U.S. Indian oil companies have different attitudes after the sanctions [1] - After the attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, European gasoline and diesel prices have continued to rise. Currently, the Russian crude oil export volume remains high [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, rose 1.52% to 466.2 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 461.7 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 470.4 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,619 to 22,279 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of U.S. crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of November 5th, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending October 31st, the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected: 603,000 barrels), 5.34% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory decreased by 4.729 million barrels (expected: 1.14 million barrels); refined oil inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels (expected: 1.969 million barrels). Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 30,000 barrels [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its August 2025 crude oil production was revised down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. U.S. crude oil production for the week ending October 31st increased by 700 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day [3] 3.4 Demand Data - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year, changing from being higher to lower than the same period last year [4] - The weekly gasoline demand decreased by 0.56% to 8.874 million barrels per day, with the four - week average demand at 8.677 million barrels per day, a 2.08% decrease compared to the same period last year [4] - The weekly diesel demand decreased by 3.63% to 3.71 million barrels per day, with the four - week average demand at 3.843 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared to the same period last year [4] - The decline in gasoline demand and larger drops in other refined products led to a 4.35% decrease in the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The PVC industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased export expectations, high inventory, and the ongoing adjustment of the real - estate market [1]. Summary by Directory 1.行情分析 - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate has slightly declined, still at a low level [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India has increased the anti - dumping tax on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton, weakening China's PVC export expectations in the fourth quarter [1]. - Traders are starting to wait and see, and last week's export orders decreased compared to the previous week. Social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, with significant inventory pressure [1]. - From January to September 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction [1]. - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has continued to decline, reaching the lowest level in recent years. The real - estate market needs time to improve [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities are coming on stream, and there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1]. - The maintenance of production enterprises such as Inner Mongolia Sanlian is about to end, cost support is weakening, futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, PVC futures prices have fallen below the previous low, the market is sluggish, trading has not improved, and social inventory has increased slightly [1]. 2.期现行情 - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,572 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,598 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 4,581 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.22%. The position volume decreased by 9,251 lots to 1,397,880 lots [2]. 3.基差方面 - On November 12, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4,515 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,581 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 66 yuan per ton, weakening by 14 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. 4.基本面跟踪 Supply - The output of devices such as Ningbo Zhengyang and Inner Mongolia Yili has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years [4]. - New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons in production since August, Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons put into production in early September and approaching full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each operating at low loads after trial runs [4]. Demand - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume of commercial housing was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9% [5]. - The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the construction area of houses was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the completion area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [5]. - As of the week of November 9, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 32.15% compared to the previous week, reaching the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5]. Inventory - As of the week of November 6, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons, a 26.42% increase compared to the same period last year. Social inventory has increased slightly and remains high [6].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: WTI crude oil futures rose 1.51% to $61.04 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 1.7% to $65.15 per barrel [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures rose 0.27% to $4,133.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.52% to $51.08 per ounce [5]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals rose, with LME tin up 1.86% at $36,695 per ton, LME copper up 0.41% at $10,840 per ton, etc. [5]. - **Domestic Futures**: As of November 11 at 23:00, domestic futures were mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, while coking coal fell over 2% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain a relatively loose social financing environment [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission recommended 18 private investment projects to the CSRC, with 14 already issued and listed, raising nearly 30 billion yuan [8]. - From January to October, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales continued to grow, and in October, new - energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% of total vehicle sales for the first time [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply during the heating season from 2025 - 2026, requiring stable energy production and supply [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In September 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the world increased, and exports to China from January - September increased significantly. Exports in October are expected to continue rising [12]. - Japan's Idemitsu Kosan believes US sanctions on Russian oil won't significantly affect crude prices [13]. - Trump said India is stopping buying Russian oil due to high - tariff threats [14]. - Domestic propylene prices rebounded after hitting a 5 - year low, driven by a PDH plant shutdown and increased downstream demand [14]. Metal Futures - Multiple silicon wafer companies cut prices due to an oversupply situation and reduced battery factory demand [16]. - China's recycled non - ferrous metal industry is expected to exceed 20 million tons by the end of 2025 [17]. - Longi Green Energy's component shipments in the first three quarters of 2025 exceeded 60GW, with TOPCon and BC components having significant shares [19]. - Guinea plans to build 5 - 6 alumina refineries by 2030 to increase processing capacity to about 7 million tons [19]. Black - Series Futures - As of November 11, the operating rate and capacity utilization of 50 electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and daily production also rose [21]. - From November 3 - 9, iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased slightly [21]. - Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased significantly. Xinjiang plans to reduce construction steel production during winter to ease inventory pressure [22]. Agricultural Futures - As of the 45th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories decreased by 6.26% week - on - week [25]. - Domestic palm oil inventories decreased slightly, and the spread between soybean and palm oil prices increased palm oil's attractiveness [25]. - Domestic soybean crushing volume dropped to a 6 - month low last week but is expected to rise this week [26]. - Analysts predict a slight decrease in US soybean production and a small increase in ending stocks for the 2025/26 season [26]. - November's soybean crushing volume is expected to be high, and bean粕 inventory is likely to remain above 1 million tons at the end of the month [27]. - Pig and pork prices continued to decline in the first week of November [27]. - As of October 31, China's cotton picking progress was 94.5%, and Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in early November [29]. - Brazil's November soybean, bean粕, and corn exports are expected to increase [29]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares were weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% to 4,002.76 points, and the trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.18% to 26,696.41 points, and南向 funds had a net inflow of HK$44.67 billion [31]. - Since October, margin trading funds have flowed into the power equipment, electronics, and non - ferrous metal industries [31]. - Laser radar company Hesai Technology reported a profit in Q3 and expects significant revenue growth in Q4 [33]. Industry - In October, new - energy vehicle sales in China accounted for over 50% of total vehicle sales. The CAAM suggests optimizing the "trade - in" policy [34]. - China will build pilot platforms in 6 key areas and 37 industries [36]. - Shanghai's "implantable wireless brain - computer interface system" entered the innovation medical device review process [36]. - The first humanoid robot 7S store opened in Wuhan [37]. - Huizhou, Guangdong, relaxed household registration restrictions [37]. Overseas - The US Senate passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown, and the House will vote on it [38]. - Trump warned of an economic disaster if the Supreme Court rules against his tariff policy and is close to a trade deal with India [38]. - US private - sector employment decreased, and small - business optimism hit a 6 - month low [38][40]. - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5% in the three months to September [40]. International Stocks - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow up 1.18%, the S&P 500 up 0.21%, and the Nasdaq down 0.25% [41]. - European stocks rose across the board, driven by reduced US government shutdown risk and expected Fed rate cuts [41]. - SoftBank sold Nvidia and T - Mobile stocks to raise funds for OpenAI investment [42]. - Toyota's plan to privatize Toyota Industries faces challenges due to an investor's stake increase [42]. - Sony's Q2 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and it raised its full - year profit forecast [44]. Commodities - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange changed their leaders [45]. - Some banks raised the minimum investment amount for gold accumulation plans [45]. - Crude oil prices rose due to US sanctions on Russian oil and expected end of the US government shutdown [45]. - Precious metals prices rose due to geopolitical risks and expected Fed rate cuts [46]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was warm, with most interest - rate bond yields falling [48]. - The Hong Kong government issued about HK$10 billion equivalent of digital green bonds [48]. - US Treasury yields fell as investors sought safety due to the government shutdown [48]. - Bonds of some tech giants were sold off due to concerns about AI spending [49]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1207 on Tuesday, down 32 points from the previous day [50]. - The US dollar index fell 0.14%, and most non - US currencies had mixed performances [51]. 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: Include Japan's November Reuters Tankan index, Germany's October CPI final value, etc. [54] - **Events**: There are central bank open - market operations, official press conferences, and speeches by central bank officials [56]