Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents the latest weekly data on the breeding industry chain, including the latest values, previous values, and weekly changes of various indicators for both soybean meal and oils, aiming to provide a data - based reference for the market situation of these products. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Soybean Meal Data - The 43% protein soybean meal's aggregated average price is 3067.00 yuan/ton, up 2.61% week - on - week [2]. - The soybean meal's futures - spot price difference is 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.07% week - on - week [2]. - The output of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 154.68 million tons, down 4.42% week - on - week [2]. - The daily trading volume of soybean meal is 104300.00 tons, up 8.42% week - on - week [2]. - The apparent consumption of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 146.46 million tons, down 4.36% week - on - week [2]. - The inventory of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 102.25 million tons, up 8.74% week - on - week [2]. - The basis of the soybean meal's spot main contract is 101.29 yuan/ton, down 19.25% week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Oil Data - Palm oil inventory in China is 59.28 million tons, down 2.36% week - on - week [5]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in China is 51.60 million tons, down 3.73% week - on - week [5]. - Soybean oil inventory in China is 121.58 million tons, down 2.76% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of palm oil in China is - 1.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of rapeseed oil in China is 488.00 yuan/ton, up 3.83% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of soybean oil and palm oil in China is - 318.00 yuan/ton, down 48.71% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the palm oil's spot main contract is - 42.00 yuan/ton, down 167.74% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil's spot main contract is 356.50 yuan/ton, up 20.54% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the soybean oil's spot main contract is 250.74 yuan/ton, down 17.69% week - on - week [5].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance Overnight - US stocks: The three major US stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P 500 rose 0.17%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.46%. The Wande US Tech Seven Giants Index rose 1.04%. Amazon hit a record high, up 4%, and Tesla rose more than 2%. Chinese concept stocks were mixed [5]. - European stocks: The three major European stock indexes closed mixed. The German DAX index rose 0.68%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.14%, and the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.16%. European stocks were affected by the strength of US tech stocks and weak eurozone manufacturing data [5]. - Precious metals: International precious metals closed mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.43% to $4013.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.52% to $47.91 per ounce. Gold was supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and Fed rate - cut expectations [5]. - Crude oil: US crude oil futures rose 0.04% to $61.02 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 0.14% to $64.86 per barrel [6]. - Base metals: London base metals were mixed. LME zinc, aluminum, and lead rose, while tin, copper, and nickel fell [8]. 2. Important Macroeconomic News - China - South Korea currency swap: The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement worth 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won for five years, which helps deepen currency and financial cooperation and promote trade [10]. - China's manufacturing PMI: In October, RatingDog's China manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6, with most sub - indicators declining month - on - month, and new export orders falling into contraction [10]. - Fed officials' views: Fed Governor Smilan said current monetary policy is too tight, and Governor Cook said a December rate cut is possible, depending on future data [10][12]. - US Treasury borrowing: The US Treasury estimated borrowing of $569 billion in Q4, $21 billion less than the July estimate [10]. 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - Oil demand outlook: ADNOC CEO said oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels per day after 2040, but warned of near - term challenges [14]. - Oil price forecast: Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude price forecast to $60 per barrel in H1 2026, and expects supply - demand balance in H2 2027 with prices rising to $65 [14]. - Styrene inventory: As of November 3, 2025, Jiangsu styrene port inventory decreased by 7.10% week - on - week [15]. - Log出库量: Last week, the average daily出库量 of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces decreased by 2.48% [15]. - OPEC's view: OPEC Secretary - General said the organization sees positive oil demand signs, expects 1.3 million barrels per day growth this year, and OPEC+ will pause production increases in Q1 2026 [16]. 4. Metal Futures - Alumina production: In October 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the operating capacity decreased slightly [19]. - Copper production: Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month but down 4.5% year - on - year [19]. - PV component price: JinkoSolar expects component prices to face short - term pressure and recover in Q2 2026 [19]. 5. Black - Series Futures - Iron ore arrivals: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports increased by 1.2298 million tons week - on - week [21]. - Iron ore shipments: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 174,500 tons week - on - week [21]. - Steel inventory: In late October, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 3.3% month - on - month [21]. 6. Agricultural Futures - Palm oil production: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 5.55% month - on - month [24]. - Pig farming cost: Muyuan's pig - farming cost in September 2025 was about 11.6 yuan/kg [25]. - Pig and grain prices: As of October 29, the national pig price rose 4.59% week - on - week, and the pig - grain ratio rose 5.52% [25]. - Soybean crushing: In October, the soybean crushing volume of major Chinese oil mills decreased, but is expected to reach 9 million tons in November [25]. - Palm oil exports: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025, increased by 26.54% year - on - year [26]. - Indian edible oil imports: India's 2024/2025 edible oil imports increased slightly, with palm oil imports down and soybean oil imports up [26]. - Brazilian crop sowing: As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate reached 47%, and the first - crop corn sowing area reached 60% of the planned area [27]. - US soybean exports: As of October 30, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume decreased week - on - week [27]. 7. Financial Markets Financial - Regulatory official's case: Former CSRC vice - chairman Wang Jianjun was investigated for serious violations [30]. - A - share market: A - shares rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55%, and the trading volume was 2.13 trillion yuan [30]. - Hong Kong stock market: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.97%, and southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$5.472 billion [30]. - Brokerage "golden stocks": As of November 3, 186 stocks were short - listed for November "golden stocks", and industry insiders are optimistic about tech - growth sectors [32]. - ETF approval: The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the issuance of the ChinaAMC CSI Smart - Selected Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Technology 50 ETF, expected to start in December [32]. Industry - AI development: The Minister of Industry and Information Technology called for promoting the "two - way empowerment" of AI innovation and manufacturing applications [33]. - Display equipment: Three high - end equipment for 8.6 - generation large - size OLED screens were launched at the 2025 World Display Industry Innovation and Development Conference [33]. - Robot industry: In the first three quarters of this year, China's robot industry revenue increased by 29.5% year - on - year [33]. - Marine economy: In the first three quarters, China's marine GDP reached 7.9 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year [33]. - Water - saving equipment: The MIIT and the MWR issued a plan to promote the high - quality development of water - saving equipment by 2027 [35]. - Auto market: The auto consumption index in October was 90.5, and the November retail sales are expected to increase slightly [36]. - Memory market: Three major memory manufacturers suspended DDR5 quotes, and the resumption is expected in mid - November [36]. Overseas - New Zealand visa policy: Chinese passport holders entering from Australia can enter New Zealand visa - free for up to 3 months from November 3, 2025, on a 12 - month trial basis [37]. - Fed officials' views: Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, and Governor Cook said a December rate cut is possible [37]. - US aviation safety: US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the government may close the aviation system if the "shutdown" affects safety [37]. - US corporate layoffs: As of September, US corporate layoffs reached nearly 950,000, the highest since 2020 [39]. - US manufacturing PMI: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month [39]. - Eurozone economic situation: The eurozone manufacturing PMI in October was 50, with new orders flat and exports falling [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks: The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, and over 100 S&P 500 companies will release earnings this week [40]. - European stocks: The three major European stock indexes closed mixed, affected by US tech stocks and eurozone manufacturing data [40]. - South Korean stocks: The South Korean Composite Index broke through 4200 points for the first time, driven by the semiconductor sector [42]. - Company news: Beyond Meat postponed its Q3 earnings, and Palliser pressured Rio Tinto to bid for Teck Resources [42][43]. Commodities - Precious metals: International precious metals closed mixed, with gold rising and silver falling [44]. - Crude oil: Crude oil prices rose, supported by OPEC+ production decisions and institutional price forecasts [44]. - Base metals: London base metals were mixed [44]. Bonds - Domestic bonds: The domestic bond market fluctuated narrowly, and most Treasury bond futures contracts declined [46]. - US bonds: US bond yields rose across the board [46]. - Corporate bond issuance: Alphabet plans to raise $17.5 billion in US dollar bonds and at least €3 billion in euro bonds [47]. Foreign Exchange - Currency swap: The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement [48]. - RMB exchange rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, and the RMB exchange rate index reached a new high since April [48]. - Dollar index: The US dollar index rose 0.15%, and most non - US currencies fell [49]. 8. Upcoming Events - Central bank events: The RBA will announce its interest - rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will speak at multiple events [53]. - Conferences: The 2025 Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Digital Transformation Conference and the 2025 Auto Core Components Advanced Manufacturing Technology Forum will be held [53]. - Budget and reports: Canada will announce its annual budget, and the RBNZ will release its financial stability report [53]. - Earnings reports: AMD, Yum China, and Uber will release earnings [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in copper prices this week was mainly affected by Powell's hawkish speech at the Fed's interest - rate meeting, which strengthened the US dollar and suppressed the rise of non - ferrous metals. Also, the decline in China's manufacturing PMI data and weak domestic industrial demand expectations contributed to the drop. However, fundamentally, the long - term upward trend of copper prices is hard to change. The shortage of copper concentrates and production cuts at smelters will lead to a decline in copper output. With global copper inventories at a low level, there is still an expected supply gap even if demand increases significantly. Currently, the decline in copper prices should be seen as a correction, and in the medium - to - long - term, copper prices will remain strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Situation - In October, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the prosperity level. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3][5]. - On October 30, 2025, the Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan brought positive signals to the market. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and both sides will adjust relevant tariff and export control measures [7]. - On October 30, 2025, the Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, lowering the interest rate to the 3.75% - 4.00% range [7]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The weekly high was 89,270 yuan/ton, the low was 86,530 yuan/ton, the weekly volatility was 3.12%, and the range decline was 0.81% [9]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of October 31, the average spot premium in East China was 0 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was also 0 yuan/ton. Due to the low willingness of downstream buyers to purchase at high prices, the premium of holders was under pressure, and the spot premium remained at a low level [14]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure - As of October 31, LME copper rose 0.68% this week, closing at $10,915/ton. Although there was a slight decline recently, the overall upward trend continued. Recently, it was under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar [19]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - Customs data on October 31 showed that the port inventory of copper concentrates was 461,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.11%. In September 2025, China imported 25.87 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.23%. This week, the inventory of copper concentrates rebounded but was still significantly lower than the same period last year. The copper mine resources were tight, and the accident at the Indonesian copper mine was expected to affect global copper supply until next year [24]. - There have been frequent disruptions at copper mines this year. For example, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia had a mudslide in September, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine had an earthquake in May, and the El Teniente mine suspended underground operations in July [24]. - On October 28, Indonesia announced that it would issue a copper concentrate export license to Amman Mining International, which may ease the tight supply of copper concentrates to some extent [24]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - From January to September 2025, China imported 1.4496 million metal tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 1.39%. Affected by Document No. 770, the procurement of anode copper was still affected. With the recent rise in copper prices, the supply of scrap copper is expected to increase to make up for the shortage of copper concentrates [29]. 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of October 31, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $42.06/ton dry, and the refining fee (RC) was - 4.13 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The long - term contract price was still under negotiation, and the market expected it to be zero or negative due to the tight supply of copper concentrates [33]. - In October, 8 smelters carried out maintenance, involving a rough smelting capacity of 1.4 million tons, and the impact on production increased by 47,300 tons compared with September. In November, 5 smelters are expected to carry out maintenance, and copper production is showing a downward trend [33][37]. - The rise in gold, silver, and sulfuric acid prices and the long - term contract price can make up for some losses of smelters, but the continuous negative smelting processing fees still have a negative impact on smelters [33]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In October, SMM's statistics showed that China's electrolytic copper output decreased by 29,400 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 2.62% month - on - month and an increase of 9.63% year - on - year. In November, 5 smelters are expected to carry out maintenance, and copper production will decline [37]. - In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and exported 26,400 tons of unwrought refined copper cathodes and cathode profiles, a year - on - year increase of 81.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 28.15% [37]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.4665 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%. The recent rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand to some extent, and the downstream operating rate has declined slightly. However, in the long term, the demand for copper is still strong, driven by investment in power grid projects, the development of AI computing power, and the stabilization of the real estate market [42]. 3.10 Copper Products - According to the research of Steel Union, more than half of the sampled refined copper rod enterprises have reduced or stopped production, and several enterprises have plans to do so in the future. It is expected that only 25% of the sampled enterprises will maintain normal production in the long term, mainly due to the sharp increase in copper prices and the lack of enthusiasm of downstream buyers [47]. - Copper tube enterprises mainly sell through long - term contracts, so their production and operation are relatively stable. The market is in the off - season, and enterprises adjust their operating rates according to actual orders. The supply of copper foil is still tight due to the strong demand in the downstream new energy and consumer electronics markets, and the operating load remains high [47]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of September, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%, and the installed capacity of wind power was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. From January to September, the average utilization hours of the country's power generation equipment were 2,368 hours, a decrease of 251 hours compared with the same period last year [51]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, and the sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. Among them, the sales area and volume of residential housing decreased by 5.6% and 7.6% respectively [57]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In September 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. From October 1 - 19, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 632,000, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the penetration rate was 56.1% [61]. - In the 2025 "trade - in" program for cars, new energy vehicles accounted for 57.2%, driving a 24.4% year - on - year increase in the retail sales of new energy passenger cars from January to September, with a market penetration rate of 52.1% [61]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - LME copper inventories continued to decline. As of October 31, LME copper inventories decreased by 1,725 tons to 134,600 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating the pressure on global copper supply. Small changes in copper supply can easily cause large fluctuations in market prices [66]. - As of October 31, COMEX copper inventories were 355,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.21%. Since the 232 copper tariff investigation, COMEX copper inventories have increased to 300% higher than the same period last year. Although COMEX copper inventories are at a high level, the global total inventory is still low, and the large amount of copper in COMEX cannot adjust the global copper supply imbalance [66]. - As of October 30, the total copper inventories in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong were 114,700 tons, showing a decline. Although there were still some export goods arriving at individual markets, some warehouse goods were shipped overseas for warehousing, resulting in an overall decline in inventory [72]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to increase. High - priced copper suppressed downstream procurement demand, reducing the circulation of copper and leading to inventory accumulation. As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.23%. Although the copper concentrate resources in the market were scarce, the mid - end smelting capacity was still operating normally [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a volatile and differentiated state due to the end of the tariff issue and the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation by Powell's hawkish remarks. Different assets show distinct performances [5][6][9]. - Gold prices have fallen from their highs recently but still have long - term upward support. Investors are advised to approach gold investment rationally [6]. - The gold tax new policy aims to regulate the market, guide resources, and serve the real economy by adjusting the behavior and motivation of market participants [73]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Analysis - Global major stock markets are mixed, with the Nikkei leading the rise, the US stocks rising, and the A - shares under pressure. The BDI index has a small decline, the VIX index rises significantly, the US bond yield and the US dollar index increase together, and most non - US currencies weaken. Commodities mostly fall, with precious metals falling from highs, and copper and oil prices weak [5][9]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rises across the board with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones, the stock index is mixed, and most commodity sectors fall. The Wind commodity index has a weekly decline of 1.96%, with 3 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 7 falling. Coal, coking, steel, and minerals perform well, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals drag down the overall decline of commodities. Energy, grains, and non - metallic building materials sectors are almost flat, and the agricultural and sideline products and chemical sectors have relatively large declines [5][14]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in October as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation. The 10 - month domestic PMI data was lower than expected, which put pressure on the A - shares and commodities [6]. - Gold prices have fallen from historical highs to around $4000 per ounce. It is due to short - term technical adjustments and the weakening of risk - aversion sentiment, as well as the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rebound of the US dollar index. However, there is still long - term upward support for gold prices [6]. Big - Class Assets - Stock markets: Global major stock markets are mixed, with the Nikkei leading the rise, the US stocks rising, and the A - shares under pressure [5][9]. - Commodities: Commodities mostly fall, with precious metals falling from highs, and copper and oil prices weak [5][9]. - Others: The BDI index has a small decline, the VIX index rises significantly, the US bond yield and the US dollar index increase together, and most non - US currencies weaken [5][9]. Plate Express - Domestic bond market rises across the board with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones, the stock index is mixed, and most commodity sectors fall. The Wind commodity index has a weekly decline of 1.96%, with 3 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 7 falling [14]. - Coal, coking, steel, and minerals perform well, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals drag down the overall decline of commodities. Energy, grains, and non - metallic building materials sectors are almost flat, and the agricultural and sideline products and chemical sectors have relatively large declines [14]. Capital Flow - The overall capital in the commodity futures market slightly flows out last week. The agricultural and sideline products, non - ferrous metals, and non - metallic building materials sectors have obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals, energy, and oil and fat sectors have obvious capital outflows [16]. Variety Performance - Among domestic major commodity futures, the top - rising varieties are apples, iron ore, and coking coal, while the top - falling varieties are butadiene rubber, methanol, and palm [20]. Fluctuation Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index slightly decreases, the volatility of the domestic Wind commodity index significantly increases, and the South China commodity index significantly reduces volatility. Most commodity futures sectors see a decline in volatility, with the non - metallic building materials, chemical, and coal, coking, steel, and minerals sectors significantly reducing volatility, and the precious metals sector having the most obvious upward volatility [24]. Data Tracking - International commodities: Most international commodities rise, with the BDI falling, the CRB rising slightly, soybeans and corn rising, copper rising, oil falling, gold falling, and silver rising, and the gold - silver ratio falling [26]. - Domestic data: The asphalt production rate seasonally declines, the real - estate sales are at a weak bottom, the freight rates show a differentiated rebound, and the short - term capital interest rate fluctuates at a low level [40]. Macro Logic - Stock index: The domestic four major stock indexes fall from highs and are mixed. The value stocks are weaker, and the growth - style stock indexes are stronger. The stock - index valuation is under pressure, and the risk premium ERP rebounds from a low level [30]. - Commodity price index: The commodity price index fluctuates at a high level, and the inflation expectation rebounds from a low level [32]. - US bond: The US bond yield significantly increases, with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones. The term structure shows a bearish steepening, the term spread is stable, the real interest rate rebounds, and the gold price fluctuates and rebounds [47]. - "Fund Seesaw" Effect and Commodity Spread: Last week, the stock market rises first and then falls, the commodity market fluctuates, and the commodity - stock return difference rebounds from a bottom. The domestic - priced commodities are relatively resistant to decline, and the international - priced commodities are weaker, with the domestic - international commodity futures return difference hovering around the zero axis [39]. - US economic indicators: The US high - frequency "recession indicators" are differentiated, the weekly economic index weakens, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread hovers around the zero axis [58]. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% in October as expected. But due to the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the expectation probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut to 3.5 - 3.75% in December drops to 59.3% from last week's 98.1%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increases significantly [62]. World Gold Association Report - In the third quarter of 2025, the global gold demand reaches a record high of 1,313 tons, with a total demand value of $146 billion. The growth is mainly driven by investment demand, which surges to 537 tons, a 47% year - on - year increase, accounting for 55% of the total net demand in the third quarter [66]. - The demand for gold bars and coins increases by 17% year - on - year to 316 tons, with India and China making prominent contributions. The global gold jewelry demand is under pressure, with a 19% year - on - year decline. The global central banks accelerate gold purchases, with a net purchase of 220 tons in the third quarter, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year [67]. - In China, the retail gold investment and consumption demand in the third quarter is 152 tons, a 7% year - on - year decline and a 38% quarter - on - quarter decline. By value, it reaches 120.4 billion yuan, a 29% year - on - year increase. The sales of gold bars and coins increase by 19% year - on - year to 74 tons, a 36% quarter - on - quarter decline. The gold ETF in the Chinese market has an outflow of 3.8 billion yuan, and the total position decreases by 5.8 tons to 194 tons. The gold jewelry demand is 84 tons, a 21% quarter - on - quarter increase but an 18% year - on - year decline. By value, the gold jewelry consumption in the third quarter is 66.5 billion yuan, with significant increases both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year [68]. Gold Tax New Policy - On November 1st, the Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration jointly issued the "Announcement on Tax Policies Related to Gold" (No. 11 in 2025). The policy aims to regulate the market, guide resources, and serve the real economy through precise tax policy adjustments [73]. - The policy suppresses speculation by implementing differentiated VAT management according to the use of gold after delivery. It encourages rational investment by increasing the tax cost of enterprise - client investment in gold. - It supports the real economy by allowing non - investment uses of gold (such as in jewelry production and industrial use) to have a complete and smooth VAT deduction chain. - It regulates the market by binding tax incentives to the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and preventing tax loopholes by strictly controlling the use declaration and change mechanism [74]. Fed Meeting - On October 30th, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% as expected and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction (QT) on December 1st. There are internal differences within the Fed, with some advocating a larger - scale interest - rate cut and others opposing further cuts. The policy statement is adjusted to weaken concerns about employment decline and inflation. Powell emphasizes the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut decision and the impact of the government shutdown on data [84]. - After Powell's hawkish remarks, the probability of a December interest - rate cut drops from 95% to 65%. The US stocks, US bonds, gold, and digital currencies fall sharply during the session, the US dollar rises, and finally, the Nasdaq rises, the Dow and the S&P 500 fall, the US bond yield rises significantly, and the gold price falls by 2.5% from the high point [88]. China - US Summit in Busan - On October 30th, the Chinese and US presidents held a meeting in Busan. The two sides reached consensus on several aspects in the economic and trade consultations, including the US canceling the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, continuing to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year, and the two sides extending some tariff exclusion measures. The US will also suspend the implementation of some export - control rules, 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and ship - building industries for one year, and the two sides will also cooperate on fentanyl anti - drug, expand agricultural product trade, and handle relevant enterprise cases [93][95]. October PMI Data - In October, the manufacturing PMI is 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index is 50.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, entering the expansion range. The comprehensive PMI output index is 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises are stable [98]. - By enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises is 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all lower than the critical point and showing a decline from the previous month [98]. - Among the 5 sub - indexes of the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index is at the critical point, while the production index, new order index, raw - material inventory index, and employment index are all below the critical point, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production, a decline in market demand, a decrease in raw - material inventory, and a slight decline in employment [99]. This Week's Focus - Monday (November 3rd): Eurozone October manufacturing PMI final value, US October S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value, US October ISM manufacturing PMI. - Tuesday (November 4th): San Francisco Fed President Daly gives a speech, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest - rate decision, European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech, US September JOLTs job openings. - Wednesday (November 5th): Eurozone October services PMI final value, the Swedish central bank announces the interest - rate decision, Eurozone September PPI monthly rate, US October ADP employment, US October S&P Global services PMI final value, US October ISM non - manufacturing PMI. - Thursday (November 6th): Eurozone September retail sales monthly rate, the Bank of England announces the interest - rate decision, Tesla holds its annual general meeting. - Friday (November 7th): New York Fed President Williams gives a speech, Cleveland Fed President Harmaek gives a speech at the New York Economic Club, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson gives a speech, St. Louis Fed President Musalem has a fireside chat on monetary policy, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech at the European Central Bank money - market meeting, US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value. - Saturday (November 8th): US October New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that polyolefins will experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. Although the previous cost increase and macro - economic improvement have driven the rebound of polyolefins, their own upward momentum is insufficient. Currently, the peak - season demand is below expectations, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. Additionally, the anti - involution policies for the polyolefin industry have not been implemented yet [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Trend - Plastic and PP prices first rose and then declined [4]. b. Production Rate - Plastic production rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points to around 85%, at a neutral level. New maintenance devices such as those in Zhongyuan Petrochemical's full - density production were added [15]. - PP production rate remained at around 80%, at a neutral - low level. New maintenance devices like those in CNOOC Daxie's new first - line were added, while some devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's second - line restarted [15]. c. Downstream Production Rate - As of the week ending October 31, PE downstream production rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film sector is in the peak season with increasing orders and raw material inventory, reaching a neutral level in recent years, packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall PE downstream production rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [21]. - As of the week ending October 31, PP downstream production rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic - weaving production rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, and plastic - weaving orders decreased slightly compared with the previous week and were slightly lower than the same period last year [21]. d. Basis - Spot prices were stable, while futures prices declined. The basis of the 01 contract rose to 201 yuan/ton, at a neutral - low level [24]. e. Inventory - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons week - on - week to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [28]. f. Cost and New Capacity - Recently, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries did not change fundamentally. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [3]. - New production capacity includes the trial operation of ExxonMobil (Huizhou)'s 500,000 - ton/year LDPE and the recent commissioning of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton/year PE and 400,000 - ton/year PP [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the current demand side is weak, there are still expectations for the future market. Factors such as off - season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage will affect urea prices. Currently, the futures price is in a correction phase, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level and difficult to return to the previous low [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the urea spot market, during the end - stage of autumn fertilizers, downstream buyers mainly replenish inventory at low prices, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and low acceptance of high prices. Since the weekend, urea quotes have been on a downward trend [1][3] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market showed a decline. As of November 3, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,623 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on October 27. The weekly trading volume was 1,223.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255.05 million tons; the open interest was 685.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.40 million tons. The futures price decline was less than that of the spot price, and the basis strengthened. As of November 3, the 01 - contract basis was - 63 yuan/ton, a weekly change of - 13 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly change of - 5 yuan/ton [5] Urea Supply Side - Last week, urea weekly output increased. From October 23 to 29, the weekly output was 1.3153 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,400 tons, or 2.93%. The average daily output was 187,900 tons. Coal - based weekly output was 1.0371 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.71%; gas - based weekly output was 278,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.75%. The next cycle is expected to see an increase in output. On November 3, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 198,200 tons, an increase of 7,800 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.75%. In the raw material market, coal price increase slowed down last week, but it is expected to rise due to upcoming heating season demand. LNG prices rose by 7.67% week - on - week, synthetic ammonia price center shifted up, and the spread between synthetic ammonia and urea weakened by 26 yuan/ton week - on - week. Methanol price was stable, and the spread between methanol and urea weakened by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [10][12][13] Urea Demand Side - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat. As of October 31, the 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was quoted at 2,900 yuan/ton. The compound fertilizer market is in the co - existence stage of autumn fertilizer end and winter storage, with slow overall fertilizer preparation rhythm. The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories increased. From October 25 to 31, the compound fertilizer operating rate was 31.04%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points from the previous week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from the previous period. As of October 31, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66%, and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous week [15][16][18] International Market - International urea prices rose last week. European demand was strong, and the final tender volume of the Indian tender was 431,000 tons, lower than the procurement target, which may lead to a new round of Indian tenders. In September 2025, China's urea export volume was about 1.37 million tons, and from January to September 2025, the total export volume was about 2.81 million tons. As of October 31, small - particle Chinese FOB price was $377.5/ton, up $2.5/ton week - on - week; large - particle Chinese FOB price remained flat at $392.5/ton [21][22][23]

发布时间：2025年11月03日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%，PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于 近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12 月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50 美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前出口签单暂 未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品 ...

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1590 1610 -20 河南 1560 1580 -20 山东 1560 1590 -30 山西 1450 1460 -10 江苏 1560 1580 -20 安徽 1570 1590 -20 黑龙江 1620 1620 0 内蒙古 1610 1610 0 河北东光 1560 1590 -30 山东华鲁 1590 1620 -30 江苏灵谷 1630 1650 -20 安徽昊源 1550 1570 -20 山东05基差 -105 -117 12 山东01基差 -135 -147 12 河北05基差 -85 -87 2 河北01基差 -115 -117 2 1-5价差 78 73 5 5-9价差 -30 -30 0 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 1455 1455 0 中东FOB 385.5 370.5 15 美湾FOB 396.5 374.5 22 埃及FOB 450 428.5 22 波罗的海FOB 379 365 14 巴西CFR 425 410 15 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on November 3, 2025. Some commodities like rapeseed meal and SC crude oil rose, while others such as BR rubber and methanol declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to various factors such as supply - side changes, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical events [6][7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on November 3, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Rapeseed meal rose over 4%, and many commodities including SC crude oil and LU fuel oil rose over 1%. On the other hand, BR rubber fell over 3%, and methanol and soda ash fell over 2%. In the stock index futures and bond futures markets, there were also different degrees of rise and fall. In terms of capital flow, some contracts like Shanghai copper 2512 had capital inflows, while others such as Shanghai gold 2512 had capital outflows [6][7]. b) Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper opened flat and closed higher. The shortage of copper concentrate and production cuts in the smelting end make copper production tend to decline. Although the short - term price was affected by the Fed's statement and domestic PMI data, the long - term trend is still strong [9][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened low and moved high, with prices in a narrow - range shock. The supply side is growing moderately, and the demand side is strong. The inventory has been continuously reduced, indicating a tight supply - demand pattern. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the upstream [12]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak season has ended, and the market is worried about demand. Although the supply is in an oversupply pattern, factors such as the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela limit Russian oil exports. The price is expected to fluctuate in the near future [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side has a slight reduction in production, and the downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. Considering the supply - demand situation and the trend of crude oil prices, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [15]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply side has new production capacity and some device overhauls. The cost is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. The demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [17]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream demand is affected by the season. There is new production capacity on the supply side. Although the demand in the peak season is not as good as expected, the future demand of agricultural film may bring some support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [18][19]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply side has an increase in start - up rate, and the downstream start - up rate is still at a low level. The export is expected to weaken, and the inventory pressure is still large. Considering various factors, it is expected to fluctuate in the near future [20]. - **Coking Coal**: The price opened low and closed high with a decline. The supply is tight, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The profit of coke enterprises is negative, and the demand of steel mills is expected to recover. The supply - demand balance pattern is maintained, and the upward trend remains unchanged [21][22]. - **Urea**: It opened low and fluctuated weakly. The production has recovered rapidly, and the cost is supported by coal prices. The downstream demand is mainly for wheat fertilizer and compound fertilizer winter storage, and the inventory is in the process of de - stocking but still in the accumulation cycle. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and future economic data release schedules. It provides information on various sectors including commodities, finance, and industries, offering insights for potential investment decisions. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.06% at $4013.40 per ounce, down 3.01% for the week and up 3.62% in October; COMEX silver futures down 0.75% at $48.25 per ounce, down 0.69% for the week and up 3.45% in October [5] - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil futures had mixed results, with U.S. oil up 0.51% at $60.88 per barrel, down 1.01% for the week and down 1.64% in October; Brent crude up 0.33% at $64.58 per barrel, down 0.95% for the week and down 1.15% in October [6] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME tin up 1.08% at $36180.00 per ton, up 1.06% for the week; LME aluminum up 0.86% at $2888.00 per ton, up 1.01% for the week; etc. [6] - As of the close on October 31 at 23:00, domestic futures contracts showed mixed results, with low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) and rapeseed meal up over 1%, and soda ash, BR rubber, methanol down over 2% [8] Important Information Macro - Information - China's manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [10] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the China - U.S. trade agreement could be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson mentioned cooperation discussions during the leaders' meeting [10] - Shanghai export container freight indices showed an increase as of October 31 [10] - China's National Development and Reform Commission emphasized boosting consumer spending during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [10] - The State Council executive meeting chaired by Li Qiang focused on deepening key - area reforms and opening up [11] - Some Fed officials opposed further interest - rate cuts in December [13] - China Futures Association issued the "Rules for the Management of Futures Market - Making Transactions" [13] - U.S. may provide long - range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine [13] - Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the APEC meeting and announced the hosting of the 33rd APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen next year [14] - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Canadian officials to discuss economic and trade relations [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - Thailand's natural rubber exports in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 8% year - on - year, with different trends for different types of rubber; exports to China increased by 6% [17] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cancelled the designated p - xylene delivery warehouse qualification of Jiangsu Sanfangxiang International Storage Co., Ltd. [18] - U.S. President Trump denied plans to strike military targets in Venezuela [19] - Some OPEC + members may agree to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, but a suspension of production increase is also possible [19] Metal Futures - China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed setting a production ceiling for copper, lead, zinc, etc. [21] - Last week, copper inventory increased by 11,348 tons, aluminum inventory decreased by 4,594 tons, etc. in Shanghai Futures Exchange [22] - As of October 31, the market average price of polysilicon was 50 yuan per kilogram, with a profit of 10.4 yuan per kilogram [23] - Morgan Stanley expects gold prices to reach $4500 per ounce by mid - 2026 [25] - New tax policies for gold were announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration [25] Black - Series Futures - As of October 27, national power plants had 220 million tons of coal in storage, and underground gas storage completed injection tasks [27] - Tangshan lifted the heavy - pollution weather emergency response [27] - The steel industry PMI in October was 49.2%, up 1.5 percentage points month - on - month [27] - China's steel production in the first three quarters decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and is expected to continue to decline for the whole year [29] - Iron ore inventories at ports increased, and blast furnace operating rates decreased [29] Agricultural Product Futures - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in November at $963.75 per ton, with export taxes unchanged [31] - A hearing on the anti - dumping case of pork and pork by - products was held [31] - Dalian Commodity Exchange will list soybean meal and corn options contracts starting from February 2, 2026 [32] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 25.4% in the week ending October 26 [33] - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in October [35][36] - Pig - raising profits improved but still showed losses [35] Financial Market Finance - After the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points, A - share markets adjusted last week. Institutions suggest investors focus on low - valued and undervalued sectors [38] - As of October 31, domestic listed companies' performance in the first three quarters was positive, with revenue and profit growth [38] - Many funds adjusted their benchmarks, and a draft guideline for public - fund benchmarks was issued [40] - Some foreign - funded public funds performed well this year, and fund managers are optimistic about the fourth - quarter A - share market [40] - Foreign institutions actively surveyed A - share companies in October [41] - Insurance institutions increased their A - share holdings, with a large proportion in the financial and manufacturing sectors [41] - More listed companies announced cash - dividend plans, and the total cash - dividend amount was large [41] - Shanghai Suyuan Technology Co., Ltd. started the listing - guidance process [42] - CITIC Securities believes there are still structural opportunities in the A - share market and suggests investment in specific directions [44] - Brokerages' November gold - stock lists are concentrated in certain sectors, and the market is expected to rise [44] Industry - New - energy vehicle retail sales in October are expected to reach 1.32 million, with a penetration rate of about 60%. Some car - makers had high delivery volumes [45] - Hainan adjusted its car - scrap and replacement subsidy policy [45] - Shenzhen's property market cooled in October, with lower new - and second - hand housing sales [45] - A villa in Shenzhen was auctioned at a high price [46] - Liquor prices continued to decline, and e - commerce promotions were more subdued [47] Overseas - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" has lasted 32 days, and it may last until late November [48] - U.S. Treasury Secretary suggested Fed rate cuts and mentioned no tariff on Canada [48] - Fed officials have different views on December interest - rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut has decreased [48] International Stock Markets - U.S. stock trading hours will be postponed by 1 hour starting from November 3 due to winter time, and economic data release times will also be postponed [50] Commodities - New tax policies for gold were announced, which are expected to improve the market environment [51] - OPEC + agreed to increase production in December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [52] Bonds - Shanxi Province issued 2.373 billion yuan of government bonds through Beijing Stock Exchange, with an average interest rate of 2.02% [53] Economic Data Release Schedule - Various economic data such as China's October S&P manufacturing PMI, Switzerland's October CPI, etc. will be released at different times [56] Events Schedule - There are events such as the expiration of China's central - bank reverse - repurchase operations, speeches by central - bank officials, and international meetings [58] Market Closure Information - Tokyo Stock Exchange was closed due to Culture Day [60]