【冠通研究】 下游跟进谨慎 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 7 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开低走，日内承压运行。现货市场情绪降温，价格趋于稳定， 基本面来看，近期日产维持在 19 万吨左右的水平，夏季阶段后续预计产量有进 一步的小幅减量，目前暂不能改变供应过剩格局，需求端，农业需求零星拿货 为主，复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计将持续上行，开工负荷拉升后，后 期对尿素需求增加，但目前市场情绪均不高，工厂以适量拿货为主，预售单的 情况下，不急于原料的采。本期装置检修增加，尿素转为库存去化，近期反内 卷举措继续刺激煤炭上涨，对尿素成本端有一定支撑。出口消息扰动盘面价格 波动，下游普遍观望，情绪跟进较为谨慎，短期偏空震荡为主，但后续依然有 工业需求的增量，后续行情下方空间有限。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1749 元/吨低开低走，日内承压运行，最终 收于 1737 元/吨，收成一根阴线，跌幅 1.36%，持仓量 115300 手（-7152 手）。 前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-4077 手，空头-5702 手。其中，融达期货净 多单增加 391 手、银河期货净多单减少 905 手；浙商 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply and demand sides have various influencing factors, and policies are more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Summary by Related Sections Strategy Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1%, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In August, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 241.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9 million tons (5.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 35.3 million tons (17.1%) [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to capital and southern rainfall and high - temperature constraints. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 1.26% to 272,400 tons, at a moderately low level [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline last week and is at the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Cost: The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may reduce the discount for China's asphalt raw material purchases. Recent crude oil prices have shown weak fluctuations, weakening the cost support for asphalt [1]. - Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned that a new round of ten key industries' (including petrochemical and building materials) stable - growth work plans will be released soon. Policies such as phasing out 20 - year - old backward petrochemical and chemical plants are more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2510 contract rose 0.31% to 3,528 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,511 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,556 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest by 712 to 211,556 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract dropped to 222 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Xinjiang Meihuite and some Shandong refineries resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1%, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year but still at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly recovered compared to January - May 2025 but remained negative. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, up from - 0.4% in January - May 2025, getting out of the consecutive negative cumulative year - on - year growth. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, down from 5.6% in January - May 2025 [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending August 1, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to capital and southern rainfall and high - temperature constraints [4]. - Policy and finance: The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 90.08 billion yuan year - on - year [4]. - Inventory: As of the week ending August 1, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% compared to the week ending July 25, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, making the total tariff rate reach 50%, and will impose about 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors [1] - By 2027, China will complete the new construction and reconstruction of 300,000 kilometers of rural roads, and the rate of bus service in administrative villages will reach over 55% [1] - In July, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.834 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7%, among which the new energy market had retail sales of 1.003 million units, a year - on - year increase of 14%, and the retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 54.7% [1] - The gold inventory in relevant warehouses of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has reached a record high, with more than 36 tons of gold bars registered for futures contract delivery, almost doubling in the past month [2] Summary by Directory Hot News - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, and the new tariff will take effect in 21 days, while the first - round 25% tariff will take effect this Thursday. He also plans to impose about 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, but companies building factories in the U.S. are exempted [1] - Three Chinese ministries issued a plan to complete 300,000 kilometers of new and reconstructed rural roads by 2027 and achieve a bus service rate of over 55% in administrative villages [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association solicited opinions on the draft amendment of the Price Law [1] - In July, the national passenger car market retail sales and new energy market retail sales increased year - on - year, and the new energy market retail penetration rate was 54.7% [1] - The gold inventory in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses reached a record high due to strong futures demand and arbitrage trading [2] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea,焦煤, silicon iron, crude oil, and PVC [3] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.83%, precious metals 27.74%, oilseeds 12.68%, non - ferrous metals 20.74%, soft commodities 2.51%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.98%, energy 3.15%, chemicals 11.45%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.74% [3] Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.45% daily, 1.70% monthly, and 8.42% in the past year; in the fixed - income category, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily change of 0.00%, monthly change of 0.06%, and a - 0.34% change in the past year; in the commodity category, the CRB commodity index had a daily change of - 0.07%, monthly change of - 2.22%, and - 1.21% change in the past year; other assets like the U.S. dollar index had a daily change of - 0.54%, monthly change of - 1.83%, and - 9.46% change in the past year [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents overnight market trends, important news, and financial market conditions across various sectors including commodities, finance, and international affairs. It details price movements in global and domestic futures markets, significant macro - economic and policy events, and performance in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.08% at $3431.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.3% at $37.935 per ounce [2] - OPEC's production increase pressured oil prices, with the US oil main contract down 1.37% at $64.27 per barrel and Brent crude main contract down 1.29% at $66.77 per barrel [3] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME aluminum up 2.30% at $2621.50 per ton, LME zinc up 1.34% at $2795.00 per ton, LME lead up 1.19% at $1997.00 per ton, and LME copper up 0.37% at $9674.00 per ton [3] - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed, with coking coal and alumina up over 1%, and rapeseed meal and caustic soda down over 1% [4] Important Information Macroeconomic News - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange decided to restrict Du XX's account from opening new positions in the corresponding contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures (EC) 2510 contract for 1 month starting from August 6, 2025 [6] - Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced on August 6 that three joint mining projects between Ukraine and the US are in preparation and will be implemented in the next 18 months [8] - Trump's advisors are pushing him to appoint interim Federal Reserve governors, and short - term appointments will give Trump more time to choose the Fed chair [8] - Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil [9] - Fed's Kashkari said the Fed should respond to economic slowdown, and he still thinks two rate cuts this year seem appropriate, but may pause or even raise rates if inflation rises due to tariffs [9] - Trump will impose a 100% tariff on imported goods containing semiconductors, exempting companies that produce in the US [10] - Trump plans to meet with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky as early as next week [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of the week ending August 2, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 948,753 kiloliters to 11,337,392 kiloliters, and gasoline inventory decreased by 12,487 kiloliters to 1,466,814 kiloliters [12] - As of the week ending August 4, the total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 2.024 million barrels to 19.072 million barrels [13] - On August 6, 2025, China's urea enterprise total inventory was 887,600 tons, down 29,700 tons from last week, a 3.24% decrease; methanol port inventory was 925,500 tons, up 117,100 tons from the previous period [14] - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of Arab light crude oil for September to Asia, the US, and north - western Europe [14] - As of the week ending August 1, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 235,000 barrels to 403 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [14] Metal Futures - Indonesia's PT Gresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure, affecting about 20,000 tons of copper production [16] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (for public comment)" [16] - From January to July 2025, the total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 29.05 trillion yuan, a 49.24% year - on - year increase [17] - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper actual output was 1.1944 million tons, a 4.05% month - on - month increase and a 19.58% year - on - year increase [19] - Affected by mine production growth in July, zinc concentrate production may decline slightly in August due to mine maintenance in Sichuan and Yunnan [20] Black - Series Futures - In late July 2025, key steel enterprises' steel inventory was 14.78 million tons, a 5.6% decrease from the previous ten - day period; daily average crude steel output was 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease from the previous period [22] - On August 6, coal supply in Ordos was still affected by rainfall and was in the recovery stage [23] - A coal mine in Lvliang Xingxian completed 106.9% of its coal production plan and 102.4% of its tunneling footage plan in the first half of the year, and plans to produce 5.784 million tons in the second half of the year [23] - Some coal mines received a 276 - working - day production plan notice, and their production is expected to decline [23] Agricultural Futures - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [26] - Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 was estimated to increase by 9.01% to 1.84 million tons [26] Financial Market Stock Market - On Wednesday, A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45% at 3633.99 points, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64%, and ChiNext Index up 0.66%. Market turnover was 1.76 trillion yuan, an increase of about 140 billion yuan from the previous day [28] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.03% to 24910.63 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.2%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.21%. Southbound funds net - bought nearly HK$9.5 billion [28] - As of August 6, 258 stocks in A - shares had doubled in price this year, with Shangwei New Materials leading with a more than 12 - fold increase [28] - In July, the number of private securities product filings reached 1298, a 18% month - on - month increase, a 27 - month high [30] - iQiyi responded that it has no more information regarding its potential HK$300 million listing in Hong Kong [31] - Uni - President China's first - half revenue was 17.087 billion yuan, a 10.6% year - on - year increase; net profit was 1.287 billion yuan, a 33.24% year - on - year increase [32] Industry News - In August, the retail industry prosperity index was 50.1%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [33] - Shanghai issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry, aiming for a core industry scale of over 50 billion yuan by 2027 [33] - In the first half of this year, China's industrial and service robot production increased by 35.6% and 25.5% respectively year - on - year [33] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (for public comment)" [34] - The Securities Association of China is seeking opinions on the "Standard for the Stability Assurance System of the Securities Industry Information System (for public comment)" [35] - In July, the national passenger car retail sales were 1.834 million units, a 7% year - on - year increase; new energy vehicle retail sales were 1.003 million units, a 14% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 54.7% [37] - Starting from August 4, express delivery prices in Guangdong increased by 0.4 yuan per ticket [37] Overseas News - Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky as early as next week to promote a cease - fire in Ukraine [38] - Fed's Daly said policy adjustment may be needed in the next few months, and the labor market has softened [38] - Fed's Kashkari still expects two rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is unclear [38] - South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29, 2025, to June 30, 2026 [39] - In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [40] - The German government plans to set up a €100 billion investment fund for strategic industries [41] - Japan's nominal wage in June increased by 2.5% year - on - year, the largest increase since February [43] - As of January 1, Japan's population was 120.6532 million, a decrease of about 908,000 from the previous year [44] - The Reserve Bank of India kept the benchmark interest rate at 5.5% and maintained a "neutral" policy stance [45] International Stock Markets - US major indices rose, with the Dow up 0.18%, S&P 500 up 0.73%, and Nasdaq up 1.21%. Apple and Walmart led the gains in the Dow [46] - European major indices rose, with the German DAX up 0.33%, French CAC40 up 0.18%, and UK FTSE 100 up 0.24% [46] - Morgan Stanley believes that US stocks may adjust in the third quarter, but the bull market is not over [46] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang sold about 225,000 shares, cashing out about $39.78 million [47] - McDonald's Q2 revenue was $6.84 billion, a 5.4% year - on - year increase; same - store sales increased by 3.8% [49] - Disney's Q3 revenue was $23.65 billion, a 2.1% year - on - year increase, and it raised its full - year EPS forecast [49] - Uber's Q2 revenue was $12.7 billion, a 18% year - on - year increase, and it announced a new $20 billion share repurchase plan [50] - Honda's Q1 net profit was 196.6 billion yen, a 50.2% year - on - year decrease, but it raised its full - year net profit forecast [50] - Novo Nordisk's Q2 sales were 76.857 billion Danish kroner, a 13% year - on - year increase, but it lowered its full - year sales and profit growth forecasts [50] Commodity Market - Gold inventory in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses reached a record high, driven by arbitrage trading [51] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 0.08% and COMEX silver up 0.3% [51] - Oil prices fell due to OPEC's production increase and weak US economic data [53] - London base metals mostly rose, supported by the Fed's loose policy expectations but pressured by tariff uncertainties [53] Bond Market - In the domestic inter - bank market, major interest - rate bond yields mostly declined, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see period [54] - US Treasury yields were mixed, with short - term yields down and long - term yields up due to Fed's comments and tariff uncertainties [54] Foreign Exchange Market - On Wednesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1900, down 24 points from the previous day [55] - The Hong Kong dollar triggered the "weak - side convertibility undertaking", and the HKMA bought HK$8.439 billion [56] - The US dollar index fell 0.55%, and most non - US currencies rose [58]

【冠通研究】 市场强预期，下方空间有限 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 6 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日高开高走日内下挫，现货市场受期货上涨影响，同时印度招标价 格提振下，低价拿货情况良好，基本面来看，山西晋煤天源开启长周期停车， 近期日产维持在 19 万吨左右的水平，夏季阶段后续预计产量有进一步的小幅减 量，需求端，下游拿货积极性增加，农业需求零星拿货为主，复合肥工厂开工 率继续攀升，且预计将持续上行，开工负荷拉升后，对尿素需求增加，工厂开 启逢低拿货，且装置检修增加，尿素转为库存去化，昨日焦煤带动煤化工价格 上涨，印标价格及出口传言刺激行情反弹，今日行情回调下挫，但目前市场强 预期下，后续行情下方空间有限。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1784 元/吨高开高走日内下挫，最终收于 1750 元/吨，收成一根阴线，跌幅 0.34%，持仓量 122400 手（-13632 手）。前二十名 主力持仓席位来看，多头-4239 手，空头-6687 手。其中，兴证期货净多单增加 1458 手、国投期货净多单减少 970 手；国泰君安净空单增加 1755 手，中信期货 净空单减少 2143 手。 20 ...

下游疲弱，承压运行 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 6 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面高开低走，尾盘拉涨。美国供应管理协会（ISM）表示，其非制造业采购经 理人指数（PMI）从 6 月的 50.8 降至上月的 50.1。国内基本面来看，7 月 SMM 中国电解 铜产量环比大增 3.94 万吨，同比上升 14.21%。TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但已经止跌回 升，冶炼厂三季度有三家工厂有检修计划，目前冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副产品弥补亏 损，目前淡季下需求疲软，市场交投情绪不温不火铜半成品后续被征收关税，可能将影 响出口需求。上期所库存依然在低位，暂未大幅累库，支撑盘面价格。综合来看，下游 铜材需求疲弱，铜价承压运行，但目前库存压力依然不大，显性库存环比有去化，铜价 震荡承压，但低位库存及美联储降息预期下方支撑行情。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【冠通研究】 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 【基本面跟踪】 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is currently facing weak downstream demand, which is putting pressure on copper prices. However, low inventory levels and expectations of a Fed rate cut are providing some support, leading to a situation where copper prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there are expectations of supply contraction, the actual production has not been affected yet. The market sentiment is cooling down, and the supply - demand situation remains loose, so the market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Crude Oil**: With the seasonal travel peak and the complex situation of inventory changes, OPEC+ production adjustment, geopolitical factors, and economic concerns, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand situation is complex, with cost support weakening and policy having limited impact on the near - term. Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate in the near future [11][12]. - **PP**: The supply is increasing, the demand recovery is slow, and there is no actual policy implementation yet. PP prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, demand recovery is slow, and there is no actual policy implementation. Plastic prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: With weak demand, high inventory, and new production capacity, PVC prices are expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may be reduced due to inspections, but downstream resistance to price increases exists. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - **Urea**: With expected production reduction and increasing demand, the downside space of the market is limited despite the recent price correction [18]. Summary by Catalog Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 6, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal rose over 6%, silicon ferroalloy rose over 4%, and industrial silicon and polysilicon rose over 3%. SC crude oil and caustic soda fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IM rose 1.34%, IC rose 1.09%, IF rose 0.37%, and IH rose 0.19%. Among bond futures, TS and TF rose 0.02%, T remained flat, and TL fell 0.04% [4]. - As of 15:22 on August 6, in terms of capital flow, IM 2509, coking coal 2601, and IC 2509 had capital inflows of 2.573 billion, 1.655 billion, and 1.173 billion respectively. Palm oil 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and IF 2509 had capital outflows of 869 million, 683 million, and 536 million respectively [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI declined. Domestically, copper production increased in July, TC/RC fees are negative but rising, and there are factory maintenance plans in the third quarter. Demand is weak in the off - season, and potential tariff on semi - finished products may affect exports. Low inventory supports prices, but weak demand pressures prices [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price declined slightly. Supply may be reduced as there are many reports of maintenance and production suspension, but there is a risk of news falsification. Cost support is weakening, and demand is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventory is low, but there is a significant unexpected increase in inventory according to the EIA report. OPEC+ will increase production in September, and geopolitical factors may affect supply. The market is worried about economic slowdown in the US, and prices are expected to oscillate [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, but the production in August is expected to decrease compared to July. Downstream demand is restricted by funds and weather. Inventory is at a low level, cost support is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate [11][12]. - **PP**: The downstream开工 rate is low, and the upstream propane import is restricted. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the inventory pressure is high. With no actual policy implementation, prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工 rate is low. New production capacity is put into operation, and the inventory pressure is high. With no actual policy implementation, prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: The supply开工 rate is high, and the demand is weak. New production capacity has been tested, and the inventory pressure is high. Prices are expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, and domestic coal mines may reduce production due to inspections. Inventory is being transferred downstream, and the downstream demand may be affected by the decline in iron - water production. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - **Urea**: The price showed a mixed trend. Production is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is increasing. The market's downside space is limited [18].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The Chinese government promotes free pre - school education, and the US President Trump criticizes the Fed and plans tariff hikes. The central bank and other departments support new industrialization, and there are changes in iron ore inventory and futures rules [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy News - From the 2025 autumn semester, China will exempt public kindergarten children in the pre - school year from education fees, and private kindergartens can enjoy the same exemption level [2] - Trump criticizes Powell for late interest - rate cuts, may announce a new Fed chair soon, and plans to raise tariffs on India, drugs, and chips [2] - Seven Chinese departments including the central bank issue a guidance on financial support for new industrialization, aiming to build a mature financial system by 2027 [2] Market Data - From July 28 - August 3, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1284.0 million tons, down 70.9 million tons from the previous week [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: urea, coking coal, polysilicon, crude oil, plastic [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials 2.85%, precious metals 28.07%, oilseeds 12.68%, non - ferrous and soft commodities 2.52% and 20.84%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.51%, energy 3.08%, chemicals 11.50%, grains 1.21%, agricultural and sideline products 2.74% [4] Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96%, the S&P 500 fell 0.49%, etc. [8] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, 5 - year rose 0.04%, 2 - year fell - 0.01% [8] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index fell - 0.11%, WTI crude oil fell - 1.66%, London spot gold rose 0.24%, etc. [8] - Others: The US dollar index rose 0.01%, the CBOE volatility index rose 0.00% [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the global financial market, including the trends of various commodities, macro - economic news, and the performance of different financial sectors. It also provides forecasts and analyses of multiple industries and markets, such as the oil market, metal market, and stock market. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Oil prices declined due to OPEC's production increase and weak demand. The US crude oil main contract fell 1.69% to $65.17 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract dropped 1.59% to $67.67 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures climbed 0.25% to $3435.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased 1.36% to $37.84 per ounce [3]. - Most London base metals advanced. LME lead futures rose 0.84% to $1975.50 per ton, and LME aluminum futures gained 0.47% to $2565.00 per ton, while LME copper futures fell 0.54% to $9634.50 per ton [4]. - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results. Coking coal rose over 3%, coke increased over 1%, and rapeseed meal rose nearly 1%, while iron ore dropped over 0.5% [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - In July, China's service - sector PMI continued to expand. New business, new export business, and on - hand business were recorded at 53.3 (up 2.3 month - on - month), 51.2 (up 2.9 month - on - month), and 50.1 (down 1.6 month - on - month) respectively. The new business indicator's increase reached a new high this year [7]. - In the first half of 2025, the whole market added 410,000 new futures customers, a 2.5% increase year - on - year. By the end of June 2025, the total number of effective customers reached 2.61 million, a 12% year - on - year increase [9]. - EU officials stated that EU goods face a 15% tariff when entering the US, applicable to all goods except steel and aluminum [9]. - Seven Chinese departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new - type industrialization, aiming to provide high - quality financial services [9]. - In July, the trading volume of China's futures market was 1,058,719,289 lots, and the trading value was 71.31 trillion yuan, up 48.89% and 36.03% year - on - year respectively [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Capital Economics predicted that OPEC+ would take a break before lifting the new round of voluntary production cuts to avoid an oil market surplus and expected production to increase again from the second quarter of 2026 [13]. - The price of single - layer coated photovoltaic glass rose to 11 yuan per square meter, up 1 yuan month - on - month [14]. Metal Futures - Guinea's transitional president revoked the bauxite mining concession originally granted to a global aluminum company [16]. - In July 2025, China's primary aluminum output was 3.7776 million tons, up 2.36% year - on - year and 3.31% month - on - month [17]. - According to Western Mining's semi - annual report, its mined zinc output was 62,875 million tons, up 18.61% year - on - year, and mined lead output was 35,071 million tons, up 24.63% year - on - year [17]. Black - Series Futures - A coal mine in Linfen suspended production on August 1, with the resumption time undetermined [20]. - In July, the total steel export volume of 32 domestic ports was 11.3646 million tons, down 1.5% month - on - month [20]. - After the rain in Ordos ended on August 5, some coal mines resumed production, leading to tightened supply and increased demand, and coal prices were frequently adjusted upwards [20]. - From July 28 to August 3, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.84 million tons, down 709,000 tons month - on - month [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Last week, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate remained high, soybean commercial inventory increased, and soybean meal inventory decreased slightly [23]. - Brazil's 2024/25 corn production forecast was raised to a record 134 million tons [23]. - On August 5, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced a public consultation on amending the business rules for fresh apple futures [24]. - In July 2025, Muyuan sold 6.355 million commercial pigs, with sales revenue of 11.639 billion yuan [24]. Financial Market Finance - Regulatory authorities are cracking down on capital market fraud by punishing third - party companies that provide substantial fraud services for listed companies [28]. - On Tuesday, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.96% to 3617.6 points, and the market turnover reaching 1.62 trillion yuan [28]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.68% to 24,902.53 points, and the south - bound capital had a net purchase of HK$23.426 billion [28]. - As of August 5, 23 stocks had QFIIs in their top ten tradable shareholders' lists at the end of the second quarter, with a total market value of 3.737 billion yuan [29]. - In July, the number of newly - registered private equity securities funds reached 1298, a 18% increase month - on - month [29]. Industry - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held on August 8, with over 100 new products to be launched [33]. - The 11th batch of national drug procurement is highly competitive, with 480 companies submitting application materials for 55 drugs [33]. - The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products issued an initiative to maintain the high - quality development of the photovoltaic industry's foreign trade [33]. - The Passenger Car Association raised the full - year sales forecast for 2025 to 24.35 million vehicles, a 6% increase year - on - year [34]. Overseas - The Trump administration plans to terminate the system initiated by Elon Musk that requires federal employees to report their weekly work results [38]. - The US trade deficit in goods and services in June decreased by 16% month - on - month to $60.2 billion [38]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped from 50.8 to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 [38]. - The Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates if the economy and inflation develop as expected [38]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed lower, with the Dow down 0.14%, the S&P 500 down 0.49%, and the Nasdaq down 0.65% [42]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.37%, the French CAC40 down 0.14%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.16% [42]. - The assets of index ETFs linked to the MSCI global stock index have exceeded $2 trillion, with a growth rate of 17% since the beginning of 2025 [42]. Commodities - In July, the trading volume of China's futures market was 1.059 billion lots, and the trading value was 71.31 trillion yuan, up 48.89% and 36.03% year - on - year respectively [47]. - Oil prices declined due to OPEC's production increase and weak demand [47]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.25% and COMEX silver futures up 1.36% [47]. Bonds - Domestic bank - bond yields were mostly stable, and treasury bond futures were mostly up, while credit bonds fluctuated narrowly [50]. - US bond yields mostly rose, with the 2 - year yield up 4.9 basis points to 3.720% [50]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1876 on Tuesday, down 110 basis points from the previous trading day [51]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$6.429 billion and sold US dollars in the New York session on August 5 [52]. - The US dollar index rose 0.01% to 98.76, and most non - US currencies rose [52]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will expire [55]. - At 12:30, the Reserve Bank of India will announce its interest rate decision [55]. - At 18:30, the Central Bank of Russia will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [55]. - At 20:00, DJI will officially launch its first sweeping robot [55].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The crude oil market is expected to experience volatile price movements. The market is influenced by factors such as the seasonal peak travel season, changes in US crude oil inventories, OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the US economy [1]. Group 3: Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is range-bound trading. The seasonal peak travel season has led to low US crude oil inventories. However, the latest EIA report shows a larger-than-expected decline in gasoline inventories and a significant unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, resulting in an overall increase in refined oil inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, which may impact the supply - demand balance. Concerns about reduced supply from Russia and Iran due to geopolitical factors and worries about the US economy also affect the market [1]. Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main futures contract (2509) of crude oil dropped by 1.55% to 508.8 yuan per ton, with a lowest price of 502.2 yuan per ton and a highest price of 513.2 yuan per ton. The open interest increased by 24 to 28,256 lots [2]. Group 5: Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the expected increase in global oil inventories in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA reduced the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.698 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels [3]. Group 6: Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, while its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels per day to 13.314 million barrels per day in the week of July 25. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.801 million barrels per day, 2.52% higher than the same period last year. However, the single - week supply of US crude oil products decreased by 1.76% month - on - month due to a significant decrease in other refined oil products, despite increases in gasoline and diesel demand [4].