Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Aspect**: In Q3, the market expected a 50bp Fed rate cut, and the US dollar index declined. After the rate cut, the copper price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped. The 232 - investigation copper tariff took effect on August 1st, ending the US copper siphon effect. In China, anti - involution measures boosted the commodity market, and a series of policies accelerated the capacity clearance in the upstream industrial sector [6]. - **Supply Aspect**: Since February 2025, the copper smelter processing fees TC/RC have been negative and weakening. According to Mysteel, the planned production in September was 1.1476 million tons, and the expected production in October is 1.1235 million tons, a new low since April. 10 smelters will be affected by maintenance in September and October, and the shortage of scrap copper supply will also lead to significant production cuts [6]. - **Demand Aspect**: Entering the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream copper product production has improved, and copper demand remains resilient. However, due to high prices, the downstream's willingness to purchase has weakened, and the Shanghai copper inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the inventory will first decrease and then increase in Q4 [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: The Fed rate cut and China's incremental policies boost the copper market sentiment. The supply is tight, while the demand from power grids, new energy, etc. provides rigid support. It is expected that the copper price will rise in fluctuations in Q4, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production of mines and the Fed rate - cut process [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Economic Environment - **Domestic Economic Data**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from July. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points. The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [12][13]. - **Stable Growth Work Plan**: From 2025 - 2026, the non - ferrous metal industry aims for an average annual growth of about 5% in added value and 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals. It involves resource exploration, product innovation, project construction, consumption upgrade, and stabilizing foreign trade [16]. - **Fed Rate Cut**: On September 18th, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut in 2025. It is expected that there may be another 50bp of rate cuts this year [20]. Tariff Policy - The US imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - products and derivatives with high copper content starting from August 1st, which affected the global copper market and inventory distribution [22]. Supply - **Global Supply**: From January - July 2025, global copper mine production increased by about 3.4%, and refined copper production increased by about 3.9%. There was an apparent surplus of about 101,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [27]. - **Overseas Supply**: In July, Peru's copper production decreased by 2% year - on - year, and Chile's increased by 0.3%. The mudslide at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine and the tunnel collapse at Chile's Codelco will reduce copper production [32]. - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In August 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.7593 million tons. Although the cumulative imports from January - August increased by 8.07% year - on - year, overseas accidents and declining ore grades keep the supply tight [36]. - **Copper Smelting**: Since February 2025, TC/RC has been negative. The planned production in September and expected production in October decreased. 10 smelters will be affected by maintenance in September and October [42]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In August, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 tons month - on - month. It is expected that production will continue to decrease in October due to maintenance and scrap copper shortages [51]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports decreased by 5.64% month - on - month. Affected by the US copper tariff, imports from the US decreased significantly, and the supply is expected to remain tight in Q4 [53]. Demand - **Copper Products**: In September 2025, the expected output of refined copper rods was 1.0389 million tons, a 4.08% month - on - month increase. The demand for copper foil is expected to increase during the peak season, and the demand for copper tubes from home appliances will also be boosted [56]. - **Power Grid and Power Source Investment**: From January - August 2025, the power grid investment was 379.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 14%. The power source investment was 499.2 billion yuan, with a 0.5% growth. It is expected that the national power grid investment will reach 660 - 670 billion yuan in 2025, with a 10% growth [62]. - **Real Estate**: From January - August, the construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real estate all decreased year - on - year. The government's policies are expected to stabilize the market, but currently, it still drags down copper demand [68]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.171 million, a 18.3% year - on - year increase. From January - August, the cumulative sales were 8.088 million, a 30.1% increase. The production increase in Q4 will drive copper demand [72]. - **Home Appliances**: Affected by the US tariff and pre - placed policies, the home appliance demand may lack momentum in the second half of the year, but there will still be a month - on - month increase in the peak season [78]. Inventory - **Global Exchanges**: Before July, due to the US copper tariff, the copper inventory in the US increased while that in other regions decreased. After the tariff took effect, the COMEX - LME premium returned to normal, and the LME inventory rebounded [85]. - **Domestic Exchanges**: The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the tariff took effect. Recently, due to high prices, the inventory has accumulated but decreased slightly due to holiday replenishment. It is expected to first decrease and then increase in Q4. The bonded - area inventory has been fluctuating slightly [90]. - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of September 26th, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 131,800 tons, similar to the SHFE inventory trend, and is expected to first decrease and then increase in Q4 [94].

Report Title - The Q4 2025 Quarterly Report on Polyolefins by Guantong Futures: New Capacity Commissioning Puts Pressure, Polyolefins to Oscillate Weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are gradually exiting the maintenance season, with the operating rate expected to rise in October. Import profit is average, and import volume is expected to remain low. In Q4, new PE and PP capacities of 2.7 million tons/year and 950,000 tons/year will be commissioned respectively. Multiple units are scheduled to start operation by the end of the year, having little impact on the 01 contract. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new capacities. The demand for polyolefins in Q4 will improve quarter-on-quarter but perform averagely compared to the same period in previous years. New orders are mediocre. Amid the global trade war, enterprises' early rush for exports and the pre - consumption of national subsidies may overdraw the Q4 demand. Although downstream enterprises have stocked up, they remain cautious. Crude oil prices will still face pressure in Q4, and the cost support for polyolefin prices is expected to be limited. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. Recently, polyolefin traders' inventories have decreased but are still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the polyolefin industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old - fashioned devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect subsequent market conditions and are worthy of close attention. It is expected that polyolefins will oscillate weakly in Q4 under the scenario of both supply and demand increasing [5][110]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Futures Price Trends - The report presents the daily K - lines of the plastic weighted contract and the PP weighted contract [8][10] Plastic Spot Prices - It shows the spot prices of plastics in North China and the spot price (CFR, mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene in the Far East [14][16] Plastic Basis Trends - Since 2025, the plastic basis has been continuously weakening from a historical high, reaching a low of - 136 yuan/ton in late July. Recently, with stable spot prices and continuous decline in futures prices, the plastic basis has rebounded to around 200 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level. The PP basis has declined slightly recently but remains at a neutral position [23][29] Plastic Production - In August 2025, the PE maintenance volume decreased by 9.63% month - on - month to 457,900 tons, an increase of 25.42% year - on - year. The cumulative PE maintenance volume from January to August 2025 increased by 0.86% year - on - year to 3.2809 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history. In August 2025, the PE output increased by 2.52% month - on - month to 2.7702 million tons, an increase of 15.38% year - on - year. The cumulative PE output from January to August 2025 increased by 17.24% year - on - year to 21.6233 million tons, also at the highest level in the same period in history [34] Plastic Operating Rate - In August 2025, the PE operating rate increased by 2.37 percentage points month - on - month to 81.3%, a decrease of 1.17 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively low - neutral level among the same period in previous years. Recently, the operating rate has risen to around 85% and is currently at a neutral level. With the planned restart of some maintenance units at the end of September, the plastic operating rate is expected to rise slightly [39] Plastic Under - Maintenance Units - Besides long - term shut - down units such as those of North Huajin HDPE and Shenyang Chemical's full - density units, new units in 2025 like those of Lianyungang Petrochemical HDPE and Zhonghan Petrochemical LLDPE are still under maintenance [41] Plastic Planned Maintenance Units in Q4 - According to Longzhong Information, there are not many PE units planned for maintenance in Q4 2025, involving a total capacity of 3.18 million tons. Some units will be under maintenance for more than 30 days [44] Plastic New Capacities - In the first three quarters of 2025, multiple new capacities were commissioned, with a total of 3.43 million tons/year. In Q4 2025, the expected new capacity is 2.7 million tons. Some new capacities are expected to be commissioned in October, while others at the end of the year, having little impact on the 2025 output. There is also a possibility of delay in the commissioning of new capacities in Q4 [48] PP Production - In August 2025, the PP maintenance volume decreased by 8.76% month - on - month to 657,900 tons, an increase of 8.89% year - on - year. The cumulative PP maintenance volume from January to August 2025 increased by 5.13% year - on - year to 5.0087 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history. In August 2025, the PP output increased by 2.32% month - on - month to 3.5045 million tons, an increase of 18.00% year - on - year. The cumulative PP output from January to August 2025 increased by 16.92% year - on - year to 26.3476 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history [52] PP Operating Rate - In August 2025, the PP operating rate increased by 1.65 percentage points month - on - month to 78.80%, an increase of 3.55 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively low - neutral level. Recently, the operating rate has dropped to around 79% due to new maintenance units, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has risen to around 30%. It is expected that the operating rate will recover in early October [57] PP Under - Maintenance Units - Besides long - term shut - down units such as those of Dalian Petrochemical and Wuhan Petrochemical, new units in 2025 like those of Qilu Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical are still under maintenance [60] PP Planned Maintenance Units in Q4 - In Q4, multiple PP units are planned for maintenance, and the maintenance is expected to be concentrated from October to November [63] PP New Capacities - In the first three quarters of 2025, 4.155 million tons of new PP capacities were commissioned. In Q4 2025, the expected new capacity is 950,000 tons, with some units planned to be commissioned in December [66] Plastic Imports and Exports - In August 2025, China's PE imports were 950,200 tons, a decrease of 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month, at the lowest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PE imports from January to August 2025 were 8.9816 million tons, a decrease of 0.84% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's PE exports were 116,000 tons, an increase of 61.83% year - on - year and 14.12% month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PE exports from January to August 2025 were 729,700 tons, an increase of 25.91% year - on - year. In August 2025, the net PE imports were 834,200 tons, a decrease of 27.36% year - on - year. The cumulative net PE imports from January to August 2025 were 8.2518 million tons, a decrease of 2.66% year - on - year. The LLDPE import profit is currently negative, and with the release of domestic capacities, the net PE imports are expected to remain low [72] PP Imports and Exports - In August 2025, China's PP imports were 247,000 tons, a decrease of 21.39% year - on - year and 12.54% month - on - month, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The cumulative PP imports from January to August 2025 were 2.1676 million tons, a decrease of 9.77% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's PP exports were 275,900 tons, an increase of 29.83% year - on - year and 4.76% month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PP exports from January to August 2025 were 2.1035 million tons, an increase of 29.03% year - on - year. The PP drawstring import window is closed, and the import volume is expected to be low [78] Polyolefin Downstream - From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products was 52.1815 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, but the cumulative year - on - year growth rate decreased slightly. In August, the year - on - year growth rate was - 4.1%. The cumulative export value of plastic products from January to August 2025 was 500.396 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, with a slightly rising growth rate but still negative. In August, the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 0.8%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points month - on - month. From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the domestic total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, slower than the 3.7% from January to July. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods has been slowing down since May, indicating increasing pressure on domestic demand. As of the week of September 26, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 1.21 percentage points week - on - week to 44.13%, and the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week to 51.85%, both at relatively low levels in the same period in previous years [83][89][94] Polyolefin Inventories - After the Spring Festival in 2025, petrochemical inventories were at an average level compared to the same period in recent years. As of September 26, petrochemical inventories decreased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 585,000 tons, 105,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Recently, polyolefin traders' inventories have decreased but are still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [102] Polyolefin Profits - In September, the coal - based and oil - based PE profits decreased slightly due to a slight decline in PE prices. In September, the profits of all PP production processes declined to varying degrees. The coal - based PP production process remained profitable, while the other processes were still in the red, with the MTO process having a relatively large loss [108]

-2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.73% 早盘速递 2025/9/29 热点资讯 1. 国家能源局发布1-8月份全国电力工业统计数据。截至8月底，全国累计发电装机容量36.9亿千瓦，同比增长18%。其 中，太阳能发电装机容量11.2亿千瓦，同比增长48.5%；风电装机容量5.8亿千瓦，同比增长22.1%。1-8月份，全国发电设 备累计平均利用2105小时，比上年同期降低223小时。 2. 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度（总第110次）例会于9月23日召开。会议提到，要落实落细适度宽松的 货币政策，加强逆周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定 增长和物价处于合理水平。 3. 美国8月个人支出增幅超出预期，同时潜在通胀压力保持稳定，显示出消费者的韧性。根据公布的数据，经通胀调整的 消费者支出连续第二个月增长0.4%。美联储偏好的核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.2%，同比仍顽固地维持在2.9%。消费者支 出的连续强劲增长进一步显示出本季度经济稳健，这将 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai silver rose 3.90%, fuel oil nearly 2%, SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) over 1%. On the downside, coking coal and glass dropped over 3%, coke and pulp over 2%, and soda ash, caustic soda, rebar, and rubber over 1% [3]. - International precious metals generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 0.50% to $3789.8 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 2.27%; COMEX silver futures rose 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 7.95% [4]. - International oil prices fluctuated narrowly. WTI crude futures rose 0.32% to $65.19 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 4.47%; Brent crude futures rose 0.35% to $68.82 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 4.21% [5]. - London base metals all declined. LME zinc fell 1.37% to $2886.50 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.09%; LME nickel fell 0.81% to $15155 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.76%; LME lead fell 0.69% to $2001.50 per ton, with a weekly gain of 0.25%; LME copper fell 0.53% to $10205 per ton, with a weekly gain of 2.16%; LME aluminum fell 0.36% to $2649 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.84%; LME tin fell 0.07% to $34415.00 per ton, with a weekly gain of 0.71% [5]. - International agricultural futures showed mixed trends. US soybeans rose 0.17%, US corn fell 1.00%, US soybean oil fell 0.24%, US soybean meal rose 0.62%, and US wheat fell 1.52% [7]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - The National Energy Administration released power industry statistics for January - August. As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%; wind power installed capacity was 0.58 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. From January to August, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2105 hours, a decrease of 223 hours compared to the same period last year [9]. - The third-quarter (110th) meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China was held on September 23. The meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment, and enhancing the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote economic stability and reasonable prices [9]. - Shanghai Shipping Exchange data showed that as of September 26, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1114.52 points, a decrease of 83.69 points from the previous period; the China Export Containerized Freight Index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decrease from the previous period [9]. - The Party Secretary and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of some state - owned enterprises, focusing on stabilizing electricity and coal prices and preventing "involutionary" vicious competition [10]. - US consumer spending in August exceeded expectations, and underlying inflation remained stable. Real consumer spending increased 0.4% for the second consecutive month. The Fed's preferred core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and remained at 2.9% year - on - year, indicating economic robustness [10]. - On September 28, the UN Secretary - General's Office confirmed that six Iran - related sanctions resolutions of the UN Security Council had been re - enacted since 8 p.m. EDT on September 27 [11]. - Hamas stated that it had not received new proposals from mediators, and negotiations with Israel had been at a standstill since an assassination attempt on its leader in Doha [11]. - If the US federal government shuts down, the September employment report scheduled for release this Friday may be delayed [11]. - Trump said he was okay with a government shutdown if necessary. He will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday and attend a meeting with senior military generals on Tuesday [11]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin said upcoming data would determine further Fed rate cuts; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supported the Fed holding only Treasuries and ignoring one - time tariff impacts [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 25, East China port methanol inventory was 82.40 tons, a decrease of 2.78 tons from the previous week [14]. - As of September 25, PVC social inventory increased 1.84% month - on - month to 97.13 tons, a 16.23% year - on - year increase. East China inventory was 91.33 tons, a 2.18% month - on - month and 14.86% year - on - year increase [16]. - Seven government departments issued a work plan for the petrochemical industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual value - added growth of over 5% and addressing issues like fertilizer supply and capacity control [16]. - The arbitrage window for US crude oil exports to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates and lower Middle East oil prices [16]. - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at this week's meeting [17]. Metal Futures - Global alumina production in August 2025 was 1.3301 million tons, compared to 1.2555 million tons in the same period last year and a revised 1.3182 million tons in the previous month. China's estimated production was 0.798 million tons, unchanged from the previous month [19]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper inventory by 7035 tons, aluminum by 3108 tons, lead by 8123 tons, nickel by 826 tons, and tin by 429 tons last week, while zinc inventory increased by 1229 tons [20]. - As of September 25, the national lead ingot social inventory was 42,200 tons, a decrease of 8900 tons from September 22 [20]. - The Indonesian mining minister said that mining companies meeting land - restoration fund requirements could have their mining licenses restored from "suspended" to "normal" [22]. - Eight government departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual value - added growth of about 5%, a 1.5% average annual increase in ten non - ferrous metal production, and other goals [22]. Black - series Futures - Mysteel data showed that the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 145.5068 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 140.0028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.992 million tons [24]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a 0.47 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.22 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 39.40 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The daily hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a 13,400 - ton increase from the previous week [24]. - The China Coking Industry Association refuted false information about "forced production cuts" and "joint price increases" [24]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data showed that the total urban inventory this week was 9.0242 million tons, a 3.36% (313,300 - ton) decrease from the previous week. Construction steel inventory was 4.9196 million tons, a 5.10% (264,300 - ton) decrease from the previous week [25]. Agricultural Futures - The US agreed to consider tariff exemptions for Malaysian cocoa and palm oil products [28]. - Analyst Thomas Mielke predicted that global palm oil and soybean oil prices would rise by $100 - $150 per ton from January to June 2026 due to supply tightness [28]. - SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased 3.19% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased 4.14% month - on - month [28]. - SGS data showed that the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from September 1 - 25 were 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease from the same period last month [29]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the premium for alternative delivery products of jujube futures for contracts starting from 2612 [29]. - As of September 25, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased 3.08% week - on - week to 277,200 tons [29]. - As of September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 74.11 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 236.57 yuan per head [29]. 3. Financial Market Finance - With the A - share market stabilizing, the private placement market has become active. As of September 28, 218 funds from 28 fund companies participated in private placement projects, with a cost of 5.864 billion yuan, exceeding last year's total, and over 90% of placements had floating profits [32]. - Bank wealth management subsidiaries have been more active in the equity market, conducting over 2100 research on A - share listed companies this year, focusing on the GEM and STAR Market. The issuance scale of equity and hybrid wealth management products has reached 72.7 billion yuan, exceeding last year's level [32]. - Many securities analysts expect the A - share market to gradually rise in the fourth quarter, with a focus on the technology growth sector [32]. - 1311 A - share listed companies have issued equity incentive plans this year, compared to 381 in 2024 [33]. - Hefei Youai Zhihé Robot Technology Co., Ltd. applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. If successful, it may become the "first mobile operation robot stock" [33]. - JD Industry submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange again, planning to issue about 253.3 million common shares [35]. - Micro - billion Intelligent Manufacturing, a provider of industrial embodied intelligent robots, applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [35]. - Hitcard, a four - year - old card company, is advancing its listing process after obtaining multiple rounds of financing [35]. Industry - Eight departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for value - added growth, resource development, and other goals [36]. - From January to August, national transportation fixed - asset investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with railway investment at 504.1 billion yuan, highway at 1.5412 trillion yuan, waterway at 143.3 billion yuan, and civil aviation at 70.7 billion yuan [36]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued regulations on food safety responsibilities of catering service chain enterprises [36]. - As of September 27, about 200 Chinese cities and counties have issued over 470 policies to stabilize the real estate market this year, and more policies are expected in the fourth quarter [38]. - Guangzhou expanded the scope of housing provident fund withdrawals for housing purchases and elevator renovation [38]. - Changchun adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy, with a minimum down payment of 15% for certain home purchases [38]. - Jiangsu Province suspended its automobile replacement subsidy policy at 24:00 on September 28 [38]. - Shanghai Future Industry Fund completed a capital increase from 10 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan and has invested in cutting - edge fields [39]. - The CSRC announced the 2025 classification evaluation results of securities companies, with 53 A - class companies, 43 B - class companies, and 11 C - class companies [39]. - The cement industry has increased production cuts due to the real estate market. Under the influence of a new work plan, the industry may reduce inefficient clinker production capacity by about 10% this year, and the cement price is expected to rebound [39]. - The predicted box office for the first day of the 2025 National Day holiday is 343 million yuan, with "The Volunteers: To the War," "Assassin in Red 2," and "Life of a Loser" leading the list [41]. Overseas - Trump will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday due to the risk of a US government shutdown. If the two parties cannot reach an agreement by September 30, some government agencies may shut down [42]. - Goldman Sachs analysts said the risk of the US economy re - accelerating is rising, which will impact the Fed's monetary policy [42]. - Due to the US tariff policy adjustments, the global trade friction index reached 110 in July, with the amount of trade friction measures increasing year - on - year and month - on - month [42]. - Over 3000 food products in Japan will see price increases in October [43]. Commodity - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting [44]. Bond - On September 28, the bond market was stable, with small fluctuations in yields. The central bank conducted 181.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 181.7 billion yuan [46]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors reminded underwriting institutions to comply with regulations on debt - financing tool issuance [46]. - As of September 28, Henan Province has issued 270.635 billion yuan of special bonds this year, mainly for infrastructure and other fields [46]. Foreign Exchange - South Korea and the US reached an agreement on the exchange rate issue, and the US recognized that South Korea did not manipulate the exchange rate, clearing the way for South Korea to be removed from the US Treasury's exchange - rate manipulation monitoring list [47]. 4. Upcoming Events Economic Indicators - Japan's July coincident/leading indicators final value will be released at 13:00 [49]. - Spain's September CPI preliminary value will be released at 15:00 [49]. - The UK's August central bank mortgage approvals will be released at 16:30 [49]. - The Eurozone's September industrial/economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index final value will be released at 17:00 [49]. - The US's August pending home sales index will be released at 22:00 [49]. - The US's September Dallas Fed business activity index will be released at 22:30 [49]. Events - 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will mature at 09:20 [51]. - Bank of Japan board member Noguchi Akira will give a speech at 13:30 [51]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on cultural and tourism development achievements at 14:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Madis Müller will speak on the digital euro at 14:30 [51]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a September press conference at 15:00 [51]. - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference on China - Nordic economic and trade cooperation at 15:00 [51]. - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will speak on the digital euro at 15:10 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno will give a speech at 16:30 [51]. - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and the German Banking Association will exchange views on monetary policy at 17:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel will give a speech at 17:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujčić will give a speech at 19:35 [51]. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will participate in a policy

【冠通研究】 延续上涨 期货方面：沪铜高开高走，震荡偏强，尾盘于 82470 元/吨。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水-15 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 70 元/吨。2025 年 9 月 25 日，LME 官方价 10320 美元/吨，现货升贴水-8 美元/吨。 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，震荡偏强。美国 GDP 增速超预期叠加首申失业金人数下降，强 劲的数据增加了美联储未来降息路径的不确定性，市场对 10 月降息预期有所降温。截止 9 月 19 日，我国现货粗炼费（TC）-40.64 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.05 美分/磅，TC/RC 费 用保持弱稳。冶炼厂 9 月检修较多，目前中小冶炼厂盈利承压，后续精铜供应依然紧张 态势。8 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量为 117.15 万吨，环比减少 0.24%，同比上升 15.59%。受 政策影响 9 月废铜供应量将明显下降，预计 9 月电解铜产量将大幅下降。精炼铜进口方 面，8 月进口铜数量环比上月下降至 30.72 万吨，环比-2.73 万吨。需求端目前交易节前 补货逻辑，带动上期所库存近几日有所去化，综合来看，受美联 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market showed a pattern of opening high and closing low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The pre - orders of upstream factories for the National Day holiday are not yet fully received, and the futures rebound lacks strength, putting pressure on the urea market price. The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons, and high production will continue to suppress prices. The demand is mainly for National Day orders, and the future demand concentration probability is low. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is higher than the same period in previous years. Overall, the market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak rebound and no fundamental support. Near the holiday, caution is needed regarding market fluctuations [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened high and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. Upstream factory pre - orders for the National Day are not full, futures rebound is weak, and prices are under pressure. The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons, and high production will continue to suppress prices. The demand is mainly for National Day orders, and the future demand concentration probability is low. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is higher than the same period in previous years. The market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak rebound and no fundamental support. Near the holiday, caution is needed regarding market fluctuations [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,676 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations, and finally closed at 1,669 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%. The trading volume was 292,033 lots, a decrease of 9,861 lots compared to the previous day. On September 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,241, a decrease of 294 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - The pre - orders of upstream factories for the National Day are not yet fully received, and the futures rebound lacks strength, putting pressure on the urea market price. The ex - factory transaction price range of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,560 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with Hebei factories having higher quotes. High - quote factories are mainly fulfilling some export orders for port collection [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 59 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [7] Supply Data - On September 26, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 204,300 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.32% [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the price change statistics of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays in the past ten and five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, etc., to show their historical performance during the holidays [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Ten - year Average and Median Statistics - The ten - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are as follows: NYMEX crude oil 3.18%, NYMEX natural gas 0.97%, COMEX gold 0.08%, etc. The ten - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 3.33%, NYMEX natural gas - 1.57%, COMEX gold 0.30%, etc [1][4]. b. Five - year Average and Median Statistics - The five - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are: NYMEX crude oil 5.75%, NYMEX natural gas 0.73%, COMEX gold 0.14%, etc. The five - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 4.97%, NYMEX natural gas - 3.19%, COMEX gold 0.21%, etc [2][4]. c. Annual Price Changes from 2015 - 2024 - The report details the price changes of each commodity and index during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024. For example, NYMEX crude oil had a 6.15% change in 2015, 3.12% in 2016, and - 4.63% in 2017 [4].

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 14000.28 336.4 9736.39 299.28 2675 40.05 242.36 84.45 90.86 58.01 -10.50 上期 13801.08 339.17 9309.43 297.45 2362.3 40.4 241.02 83.98 90.35 58.87 -8.00 周变动 199.20 -2.77 426.96 1.83 312.70 -0.35 1.34 0.47 0.51 -0.86 -2.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 10916.44 1722.13 278.65 1083.06 本期 9061.84 5354.52 5916.19 上期 10811.42 1671.76 291.24 1026.66 上期 8980.59 5266.52 5775.57 周变动 105.02 50.37 -12.59 56.4 周变动 81.25 88 140.62 免责声明： 铁矿石库存周度数据 研究咨询部 ...