【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期偏震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 1 月 30 日焦炭综合库存增加 13.3 万吨至 1012.35 万吨，位 于 7 个半月高位，同比降幅达到 3.44%。 1 资料来源：博易大师（焦炭日线图表） 冠通期货 沈桂伟 执业资格证书编号：F03099907/Z0020265 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于我的钢铁网、金十期货网 站、中国煤炭市场网。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利-55 元/吨，其中山东准一级焦平 均盈利转正至 2 元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 0 元/吨，山西准一级焦平均盈利 -41 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-92 元/吨。 下游需求，本周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率环比增加 0.32%至 79%，同比去年增 加 1.02%，盈利率环比上周减少 1.3%至 39.39%，高炉炼铁产能利用率微幅回落 至 85.47%，日均铁水产量环比减少 0.12 万吨至 227.98 万吨。 上游焦煤，临近春节，供应有下降预期，矿山炼焦煤库存下降 7.2 万吨至 267.2 万吨;炼焦煤综合库存环比增 ...

发布日期：2026年2月3日 【行情分析】 【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：高开后震荡运行 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.19个百分点至78.93%，PVC开工 率小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.11个百分点，下游主动 备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，加之美国面临寒潮冲击， PVC企业赶在春节假期前提前预售，国内出口签单继续环比走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报 价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房 地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增 速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期偏低水平，房地产改 善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万 华、山东恒通仍在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临 近春节假期，下游采购积极性一般，社会库存继续增加。生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【基本面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将介入并 购买委内瑞拉石油。由于特朗普周末表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"认真谈话"，释 放出与该欧佩克成员国局势降温的信号，WTI 原油暴跌。 商务部等 9 单位印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》。 【期现行情分析】 日内小幅收跌，短期反弹告一段落，存在进一步下探可能，支撑关注小时级 别 60 日均线，重点关注近期宏观因子和短期情绪变化。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，累库主要表现在华 东地区，周期内外轮显性卸货 19.14 万吨，全部卸入华东。周内江苏沿江主流库 区提货减弱，浙 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the hot-rolled coil futures declined with reduced positions and trading volume, hitting a new low in the past 20 trading days. The daily line broke below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is expected to remain weak. The short-term pressure is around the 5-day moving average. Fundamentally, the upward movement is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward movement is marginally supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely tracked: first, the inventory depletion speed. If the inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, the price may continue to decline. Second, the implementation pace of "dual-focus" projects and infrastructure investment. The policy support strength will determine the medium-term rebound space [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 Review - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the hot-rolled coil futures main contract reduced its position by 21,563 lots, with a trading volume of 335,114 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,257 yuan, and the high was 3,283 yuan. It declined with reduced positions during the day. From the daily moving average, it short-term broke below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, closing at 3,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan or 0.34% [1] - **Spot Price**: The mainstream hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and futures prices is 5 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a medium to high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production pace before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4] - **Demand**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand slightly increased this week and is at a relatively good level in the same period over the years [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week-on-week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased week-on-week, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in the process of destocking [4] - **Policy**: A new regulation on steel export license management was introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月3日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.3个百分点至25.5%，较去年同期低了2.6个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于14%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，山东地区部分炼厂停产或转产渣油，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少5.80%至21.45万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比持平， 仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的 生产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的 贴水13美元/桶大幅缩小，印度石油公司高管表示，委内瑞拉石油以每桶较迪拜原油贴水4-5美元的 折扣报价，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国介入前大幅下降，关注国 内炼厂原料短缺情况。本周山东胜星石化计划转产渣油，沥青开工维持低位。北方刚性需求 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：情绪释放，盘面反弹 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【行情分析】 沪铜今日低开高走，收盘上涨近 3%。消息面上，今日中国有色金属工业协会举行 2025 年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会，会上提到要完善铜资源储备体系建设， 一方面扩大国家铜战略储备规模，另一方面探索进行商业储备机制，通过财政贴息等方 式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备，市场有信息说已叫停部分铜冶炼项目，受消息面刺 激及外盘贵金属的止跌反弹，今日铜价上行。基本面来看， 1 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量为 117.93 万吨，环比增加 0.12 万吨，升幅为 0.10%，同比上升 16.32%。SMM 调研 2 月无冶 炼厂进行检修，个别冶炼厂 1 月底检修结束，2 月产量仍然受到影响，预计产量环比减 少 3.58 万吨，降幅为 3.04%，同比上升 8.06%。1 月份高位铜价抑制铜需求，下游多刚 需采购为主，终端新能源市场因购置税影响而表现不佳，其他传统行业及电力行业仍显 韧性。综合来看，短期内有色金属及贵金属盘面出现大涨大跌极端行情，美联储主席的 新人选提名影响美元走势而造成铜价的大幅下挫，市场出现恐慌性 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：需求边际走弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，震荡偏弱。上游工厂氛围一般，若下游继续不温不 火，春节前预计将降价吸单。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价 范围多在 1700-1760 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，近期日产位于 19-21 万吨附近波动，气头装置 1 月、2 月集中复产中，按照目前日均产量测 算，1 月份产量预计在 628 万吨，高于往年同期水平。厂内库存呈现去化趋 势，低位库存支撑尿素价格，随着农需的不断拿货，叠加前期出口消化的货 源，尿素走货流畅，库存压力不大，预计 2 月月内受假期的影响，库存阶段性 累库。临近过年，上游工厂吸单压力增大，预计春节前待发不断提高，若无利 好，现货预计有降价吸单的计划。由于今年过年时间偏晚，1 月份复合肥工厂 开工率处于不断走高的阶段，月末受环保预警的影响，开工略有下降，目前还 有两周即将进入春节假期，开工负荷回升受限，预计月内先抑后扬，开年后逐 渐进入农耕旺季，下游工厂对于尿素需求将进入年内高峰期。临近假期影响， 需求端阶段性回落，盘面小幅下挫，上游装置吸单压力大，节 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月3日 PP2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低价6681元/吨，最高价6771元/吨，最终收盘于6730元/吨， 在20日均线上方，跌幅0.65%。持仓量增加229手至509892手。 现货方面： PP各地区现货价格多数下跌。拉丝报6340-6880元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【行情分析】 截至1月30日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落0.79个百分点至52.08%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于42.04%，但塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年同期。 2月3日，茂名石化二线等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标 品拉丝生产比例维持在29%左右。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成 本端，地缘局势降温，本次寒潮转弱，原油价格大幅下跌。近期检修装置略有减少。下游BOPP膜价 格继续反弹，临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率稳定，但其新增订单有限。宏观情绪降温，塑料短期 跟随市场情绪偏弱震荡，春节前PP ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited, with an expected continuation of the oscillating trend [1] - Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and it can still be considered for bargain - buying if there is a large decline [1] - There is no obvious short - term driver for eggs, and excessive bearishness is not recommended due to a marginal improvement in inventory compared to the second half of last year [2] - The darkest time for pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month [3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - In the Northeast production area, the spot market for low - protein soybeans is stable, with little remaining grain in the grass - roots level and sluggish transactions. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, showing the characteristic of better quality commanding a higher price. The price of 39% protein content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1] - On February 2, 2026, at 14:00, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction 60,608 tons of soybeans, all of which were sold. The reserve price was 4,050 yuan per ton, the average transaction price was 4,298 yuan per ton, and the premium was 210 - 310 yuan per ton [1] Corn - The Northeast market has entered a small peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival. Under the game of increased supply and decreased demand, the corn trend is weak. Farmers who want to sell grain are selling one after another, and traders and grain dealers have little expectation of price increases. The shipment volume before the Spring Festival has increased [1] - In Shandong, the grain sales progress has exceeded 50%. The supply and demand sides are in continuous game. Currently, North China has a low - price area. In addition to the support of deep - processing stocking demand, traders have the intention to build warehouses, and the actual increase in market supply is limited. The corn price is stable with a slight upward trend [1] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a relatively high level in recent years, with sufficient basic market supply capacity [2] - The culling rhythm of old hens has slowed down. With the recent sharp rise in egg prices, the income of the breeding link has expanded, and farmers' confidence has been restored. The industry generally has the idea of delaying the culling of old hens and even molting them later, resulting in a decrease in the slaughter volume of old hens and slowing down the reduction rate of production capacity [2] - According to the breeding cycle, the newly - laid hens recently were the chicks replenished around October 2025. Although the egg price at that time inhibited some replenishment, the established production capacity is still gradually coming into production, resulting in the situation of "old hens not leaving and new hens coming", and the overall national production capacity remains at a high level [2] Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9%, and currently it is 101.6% of the normal inventory [2] - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million compared with the previous year, a growth of 2.4% [2] - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million compared with the end of the previous year, a growth of 0.5% [2] - From the end of January to the beginning of February, as the pre - Spring Festival slaughter window narrows, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices to weaken further. Although farmers have resistance to price drops and there are weather disturbances, they can only slow down the downward rate and are difficult to reverse the trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 3, the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE declined by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week-on-week, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was de-stocked rapidly, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and the crude oil price dropped significantly. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet, the temperature dropped, the terminal construction slowed down, the demand in the north decreased, the production of greenhouse film in the north basically stopped, the prices of agricultural film remained stable, the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film decreased, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline. The macro sentiment cooled down, and plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term following the market sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern of plastics will improve limitedly, the spot follow - up is limited, the basis will decline, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics in recent days, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 3, there were few changes in the overhaul devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and the crude oil price dropped significantly. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet, the temperature dropped, the terminal construction slowed down, the demand in the north decreased, the production of greenhouse film in the north basically stopped, the prices of agricultural film remained stable, the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film decreased, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline. The macro sentiment cooled down, and plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term following the market sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern of plastics will improve limitedly, the spot follow - up is limited, the basis will decline, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The plastic 2605 contract increased its positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,811 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,937 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,865 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.15%. The position increased by 15,259 lots to 511,685 lots [2]. Spot - Most of the PE spot markets declined, with a price change range between - 200 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,600 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 3, there were few changes in the overhaul devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE declined by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders of agricultural film and the raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The orders of packaging film also decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 95,000 tons to 505,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was de - stocked rapidly, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 04 contract dropped to $66/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $700/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $680/ton week - on - week [4].