发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：冬储进入尾声 【行情分析】 焦煤日内低开高走，午后下跌。焦煤供应过剩格局显现，但春节临近，国 内矿山逐渐开启假期，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利 用率为 89.13%，环比减少 0.2%。原煤日均产量达到 197.82 万吨。进口煤及国 内生产边际减少，本期焦煤矿山库存去库，周度环比减少 7.17 万吨，上周焦化 企业累库 57.08 万吨，钢厂累库 11.12 万吨，冬储补库进程环比上周加快，距 离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存将继续下沉，目前已接近尾声阶段，下 游钢材成交量不佳，下游铁水产量环比减少 0.12%，周度日均产量 227.98 万 吨。焦炭一轮提涨落地，焦企利润回升，但钢厂利润减少，下一轮提涨预计难 度高，下游冬储虽仍在进行，但已进入收尾阶段，供需双弱，焦煤窄幅波动整 理，目前无政策支撑，整体驱动有限，偏弱震荡为主。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1300 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1027 元/吨，较上个交易日+3 元/吨。 基差方面： ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 3 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，沪银跌超 16%，沪锡跌超 6%， SC 原油跌超 4%，燃料油跌超 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：南美大豆丰产预期加强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 豆粕：AgRural：截至上周四（1 月 29 日），2025/26 年度巴西大豆收获进 度为 10%，上周 4.9%，去年同期 3.9%。目前几乎所有产豆州的大豆收获都已经 开始，目前尚未有重大收割延误的报告，但市场关注的焦点开始转向巴西南部地 区和南马托格罗索州出现的高温干旱天气。最令人担忧的是南里奥格兰德州，该 州约有 15%的作物仍处于灌浆期。USDA 出口检验：截至 2026 年 1 月 29 日的一周， 美国大豆出口检验量为 1,310,559 吨，去年同期为 1,140,431 吨。2025/26 年度 迄今美国大豆出口检验总量达到 21,991,461 吨，同比减少 35.7%，2025/26 年度 迄今美国大豆出口达到全年出口目标的 51.3%。 机构大幅上调 2025/26 年度产量估值，收获进度优于去年，尽管局部天气仍 存变数，但市场对于南美丰产及供应宽松的一致性预期正得到进一步强化。不过 由于节后大豆抛储和到港仍然存在一定的不确定性，不建议过度看空，保守的建 议逢低点部分基差，期货盘面仍然以宽 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：外盘情绪影响下高位回落 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【基本面分析】 1、截至 1 月 27 日，1 月苯乙烯华东江苏主流库区总库存量在 9.45-12.33 万吨区间波动。苯乙烯华东主要港口的库存整体仍处于历史低位区间，现货流通 性仍偏紧。 2、从下游三大领域（EPS、PS 和 ABS）的生产情况来看，截至 1 月 22 日当 周，EPS 产能利用率 58.71%，环比增长 4.66%，下游需求淡季，商家追涨情绪谨 慎，整体成交氛围欠佳。 3、 PS 产能利用率 57.3%，环比下降 0.1%，南京装置恢复、广西长科重启， 但连云港石化、宁波利万各减 1 条线，行业供应暂时稳定，行业总供应量平稳， 市场出货一般，库存转为上涨。 4、 ABS 产能利用率 66.8%，环比下降 3%，厂家供应依旧十分紧张，控量发 货为主，且进入 1 月份后多为高价货源，节后归来市场询盘问价增多，成交放量， 价格呈现反弹。此外，UPR 产能利用率 38%，环比下降 1%；丁苯橡胶开工 82.92%， 环比持稳。 【宏观面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将 ...

Group 1: Hot News - China Electricity Council predicts that solar power installed capacity will exceed coal power for the first time in 2026, and the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach half of the total installed capacity by the end of the year. The newly added power generation installed capacity is expected to exceed 400 million kilowatts, with new new - energy power generation installed capacity exceeding 300 million kilowatts [2] - Iranian President Pezeshkiyan orders to start nuclear negotiations with the US, and high - level talks may be held in the coming days. US envoy Witkov and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi are expected to meet in Istanbul on February 6 to discuss a "possible nuclear agreement" [2] - US President Trump says he will reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. Indian Prime Minister Modi agrees to stop buying Russian oil, reduce tariffs and non - tariff barriers to the US to zero, and promises to purchase over $500 billion of US products [2] - The US January ISM manufacturing PMI index rises to 52.6, far higher than the expected 48.5, reaching a new high since August 2022, boosted by robust growth in new orders and output [2] - The EU is considering banning imports of some Russian platinum - group metals and copper in the new round of sanctions [2] Group 2: Key Focus and Night - Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, silver, crude oil, and plastic [3] - Night - market performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.96%, precious metals 35.99%, oilseeds and oils 8.14%, soft commodities 2.30%, non - ferrous metals 26.37%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 9.64%, energy 2.44%, chemicals 9.48%, grains 1.01%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.67% [3] Group 3: Commodity Futures Plate Holding - The chart shows the changes in the holdings of commodity futures plates in the past five days from January 27, 2026, to February 2, 2026 [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.48%, SSE 50 dropped 2.07%, CSI 300 dropped 2.13%, CSI 500 dropped 3.98%, S&P 500 rose 0.54%, Hang Seng Index dropped 2.23%, German DAX rose 1.09%, Nikkei 225 dropped 1.25%, and UK FTSE 100 rose 1.15% [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures dropped 0.03%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures dropped 0.02%, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures remained unchanged [5] - Commodities: CRB commodity index dropped 4.67%, WTI crude oil dropped 5.09%, London spot gold dropped 4.52%, LME copper dropped 1.96%, and Wind commodity index dropped 11.59% [5] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.51%, and CBOE volatility remained unchanged [5] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans and corn, as well as stock market risk preferences [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/3 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期市日盘收盘大面积跌停，沪银、钯、铂、沪铜、沪镍、原油、碳 酸锂等十多个品种主力合约跌停，沪金逼近跌停。夜盘收盘，沪银主力合约下跌 20%，沪锡跌 12.38%，原油跌 4.8%，沪金跌 3.86%。 2.美油主力合约收跌 4.42%，报 62. ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1790 1790 0 河南 1770 1770 0 山东 1770 1790 -20 山西 1630 1630 0 江苏 1800 1800 0 安徽 1790 1790 0 黑龙江 1780 1780 0 内蒙古 1790 1790 0 河北东光 1770 1770 0 山东华鲁 1770 1770 0 江苏灵谷 1820 1810 10 安徽昊源 1740 1740 0 山东05基差 -37 -39 2 山东01基差 -8 -10 2 河北05基差 -27 -29 2 河北01基差 2 0 2 1-5价差 30 28 2 5-9价差 29 29 0 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 11256 12690 -1434 中东FOB 431 426 5 美湾FOB 434.5 423.5 11 埃及FOB 477.5 462.5 15 波罗的海FOB 415 405 10 巴西CFR 437.5 432.5 5 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 尿素日度数据 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --2026年2月沥青月度报告 发布日期：2026年2月2日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 数据来源：博易大师 冠通研究 3 沥青/原油 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.3个百分点至25.5%，较去年同期低了2.6个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资 讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨，减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，沥 青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于14%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，山东地区部分炼厂停产或转产渣 油，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少5.80%至21.45万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比持平，仍处于近年来 同期的最低位附近。 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --2026年2月PVC月度报告 发布日期：2026年2月2日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 数据来源：博易大师 冠通研究 3 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 PVC上游 兰炭价格 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 西北地区电石市场价 元/吨 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 17-12-11 18-04-11 18-08-11 18-12-11 19-04-11 19-08-11 19-12-11 20-04-11 20-08-11 20-12-11 21-04-11 21-08-11 21-12-11 22-04-11 22-08-11 22-12-11 23-04-11 2 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - February 2026 Crude Oil Monthly Report - Release Date: February 2, 2026 - Analyst: Su Miaoda [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Due to the impact of winter storms, the EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventory has decreased. The recent increase in the world economic growth rate by the IMF and the cold weather have alleviated demand concerns, but the enthusiasm for crude oil demand will decline after mid-February. The global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply surplus situation. The EIA's latest January monthly report has raised the surplus幅度 of crude oil supply in 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The geopolitical risks in Iran have cooled down, but attention should still be paid to the situation in Iran. The geopolitical situation has cooled down, the impact of the cold wave is short - term, and the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan is gradually recovering. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly in February [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In January 2026, crude oil prices first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of the month, the U.S. raided Venezuela and arrested Maduro, but the global crude oil market had digested the impact of restricted Venezuelan crude oil exports before New Year's Day. Trump said that Venezuela would transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. As Iran had riots and the U.S. increased its military presence in the Middle East, along with the increase in the world economic growth rate by the IMF and the cold - weather - driven diesel heating demand, demand concerns were alleviated, and crude oil prices rebounded [7]. 2. Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - In the past two weeks, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds has continued to increase. As of the week ending January 20, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds increased by 8,509 contracts to 216,970 contracts, an increase of 4.08% and 71.95% compared to the end of December. The enthusiasm for crude oil speculation has rebounded since mid - December 2025 but remains at a relatively low - to - neutral level in recent years. As of January 28, the number of Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels compared to the end of December 2025, still at a low level [11]. 3. Crude Oil Production - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. U.S. crude oil production in the week ending January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high. The U.S. Energy Secretary called for more than doubling the global oil production at the World Economic Forum [15]. 4. Oil Drilling Rigs - In January, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs decreased slightly. As of the week ending January 23, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs was 411, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and a decrease of 1 compared to the week ending December 30. The slight decline of U.S. oil drilling platforms has increased the expectation that low oil prices will limit U.S. crude oil production growth [19]. 5. U.S. Crude Oil Imports and Exports - According to U.S. Energy Administration data, as of the week ending January 23, U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 805,000 barrels per day to 5.642 million barrels per day, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years; U.S. crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [23]. 6. China's Crude Oil Processing and Imports - China's domestic crude oil processing volume rebounded month - on - month. In December, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 26.85% month - on - month to 62.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, at the highest level in the same period of previous years. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume increased by 4.10% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly. China's domestic crude oil imports also rebounded month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period of previous years. In December, China's crude oil imports increased by 9.98% month - on - month to 55.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil imports increased by 4.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rebound slightly [27]. 7. U.S. Economic Data and Fed Policy - U.S. non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 70,000 and the previous value of 64,000. The unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.6%. The non - farm payrolls in October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but higher than market expectations. The core CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year before seasonal adjustment. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in the January interest - rate meeting, in line with market expectations. Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chairman [31]. 8. Gasoline Crack Spreads - In January, the U.S. gasoline crack spread increased by $2.0 per barrel, while the European gasoline crack spread decreased by $5.0 per barrel. The U.S. and European diesel crack spreads increased by $4.0 per barrel and $2.0 per barrel respectively [35]. 9. U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA monthly report raised the WTI crude oil price forecast for 2026 by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel, lowered the global oil demand forecast for 2026 from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the global oil production forecast for 2026 from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate forecast for 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the global oil production growth rate forecast for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. According to the latest U.S. Energy Administration data, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08%, and the year - on - year decline has decreased. The weekly production of gasoline increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.266 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The weekly production of diesel increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 3.721 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%. The increase in gasoline and diesel production has driven the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to increase by 2.49% month - on - month [40]. 10. Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of January 28, U.S. EIA data showed that as of the week ending January 23, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.848 million barrels, and were 2.94% higher than the five - year average. The inventory in the Cushing area was reported at 24.785 million barrels, a decrease of 278,000 barrels compared with the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The gasoline inventory increased by 223,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.009 million barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 515,000 barrels to 414.9 million barrels as of the week ending January 23, the highest since the week ending September 30, 2022, and has increased for 26 consecutive weeks [44][48]. 11. Geopolitical Risks - Iranian official Larryjani said on January 31 that the negotiation framework is gradually taking shape. On February 1, eight foreign ministers issued a joint statement condemning Israel for violating the Gaza cease - fire agreement. A new round of tripartite talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia will be held on February 4 and 5, and no formal cease - fire agreement on energy goals has been reached between Russia and Ukraine. Trump believes that an agreement on Cuba is about to be reached and that the negotiation on Greenland has started and the agreement is basically reached [50].