【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月02日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升3.0个百分点至27.8%，较去年同期低了4.7个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅 为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青 开工环比下跌5个百分点至29%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇生产，船发良 好，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加6.74%至26.21万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货 比环比持平，处于近年来同期的最低位附近。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制 裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持 开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不大，原油价格低位震荡。委内瑞拉Jose工业区发生火灾， 20万桶/日的蒸馏装置停运，不过美方对委内瑞拉军事威胁之下，稀释沥青贴水幅度扩大。本周山东 胜星等炼厂转产，但广州石化计划复产，沥青开工率将略有上升。北方气温下降后，道路施工 ...

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Report Summary Key Information - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin standard and trading limit of the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract. Effective from the settlement on December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. Starting from the trading session on December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients on the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [2] - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration has ordered Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd.'s Xinzhuang Coal Mine to suspend production for rectification for 2 days due to major accident hazards [2] - The ANRPC monthly rubber report shows that in October 2025, natural rubber prices showed a bearish trend. In 2025, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase slightly by 1.3% compared to 2024, and demand is expected to increase by 0.8% [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across China was 117.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.09%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 65.35 million tons, a decrease of 1.36 million tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.04% [2] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI index in November dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, remaining below the 50 boom - bust line for nine consecutive months, marking the largest contraction in four months. The new orders index dropped to the fastest contraction rate since July, and the backlog of orders had the largest decline in seven months [3] Plate Performance - Key areas of focus include urea, coking coal, silver, asphalt, and PVC [4] - In the night session, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.77%, the precious metals sector rose 30.31%, the oilseeds and oils sector rose 9.08%, the non - ferrous metals sector rose 23.79%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.75%, the coal, coking, steel, and ore sector rose 12.35%, the energy sector rose 2.84%, the chemical sector rose 10.87%, the grain sector rose 1.39%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 3.84% [4] Plate Position - The document presents the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, but specific data is not clearly stated in text form [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Annual Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.65 | 0.65 | 16.77 | | | SSE 50 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 11.51 | | | CSI 300 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 16.30 | | | CSI 500 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 24.03 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.53 | - 0.53 | 15.83 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.67 | 0.67 | 29.78 | | | German DAX | - 1.04 | - 1.04 | 18.49 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 1.89 | - 1.89 | 23.58 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.18 | - 0.18 | 18.71 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.12 | 0.09 | - 0.81 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.10 | 0.09 | - 0.66 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.03 | 0.03 | - 0.55 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.41 | 0.41 | 2.03 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.71 | 1.97 | - 17.20 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.30 | 0.30 | 61.24 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.26 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 2.12 | 2.12 | 36.63 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.03 | - 0.03 | - 8.36 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.00 | - 5.76 | [6]

发布日期：2025年12月1日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 冠通期货研究报告 --12月沪铜月度报告 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 核心观点—沪铜 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 ，2 ➢ 宏观方面：月内美国政府超历史记录的停摆结束，经济数据不断揭示，影响宏观环境的走势。目前市场聚焦于美联储降息情况，月内美 联储官员释放鹰派言论，降息概率大幅下挫，而随着经济数据的不断发布，降息概率提升，美元走弱，提振金属行情。国内11月份，制 造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 ➢ 供给方面：全球第二大铜矿印尼铜矿发生泥石流事故停产后，计划自2026年第二季度（7月）起，分阶段重启大规模生产，后续铜矿偏 紧预期将有缓解，稳定铜价。由于冶炼厂集中在10月、11月检修，预计随着工厂的复产，12月铜国内产量将增加。铜冶炼 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply pressure of polyolefins remains high, with new production capacities being put into operation. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, and the peak - season performance is below expectations. The demand in the north is decreasing, and the follow - up of orders is limited. The cost support from crude oil is weak. Although there is some boost from the anti - disorderly competition policy, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and polyolefins have insufficient upward momentum. It is expected that the upward space of polyolefins in December is limited. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The plastic operating rate has dropped to around 88%, at a neutral level, and the PP enterprise operating rate remains at around 83%, at a slightly low - neutral level. New production capacities such as ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical HDPE, and PP have been put into operation, and more are expected in December. [3] - As of the week of November 28, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, and the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83%. However, the plastic - braiding operating rate of the PP drawing downstream decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%. [3] - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - neutral level in recent years. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline in the future. [3] 3.2. Market Review - In late November, the decline of the spot price was greater than that of the futures price, and the basis of plastics decreased but remained at a slightly low - neutral level. The PP basis continued to decline slightly and was at a low level. [15][20] 3.3. Plastic Production - In October 2025, the PE maintenance volume decreased by 14.29% month - on - month to 45.63 million tons, and the PE production increased by 6.54% month - on - month to 2.8836 million tons, reaching a record high. [24] - In October 2025, the PP maintenance volume increased by 2.47% month - on - month to 776,100 tons, and the PP production increased by 4.63% month - on - month to 3.5038 million tons, also reaching a record high. [32] 3.4. Plastic Operating Rate - In October 2025, the PE operating rate increased by 1.58 percentage points to 82.01%. Recently, the plastic operating rate has dropped to around 88%. [28] - In October 2025, the PP operating rate increased by 0.94 percentage points to 77.26%. Recently, the PP enterprise operating rate remains at around 83%. [36] 3.5. PE and PP Imports and Exports - In October 2025, China's PE imports were 1.0112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.23%, and exports were 83,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.42%. The net imports decreased by 18.99% year - on - year. [43] - In October 2025, China's PP imports were 273,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.16%, and exports were 235,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.62%. It is expected that PP net imports will decline. [49] 3.6. Polyolefin Downstream - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products was 65.573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and the export amount was 614.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of - 1.0%. [53] - As of the week of November 28, the PE downstream operating rate decreased, and the PP downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the plastic - braiding operating rate of the PP drawing downstream decreased. [57] 3.7. Polyolefin Inventory As of November 28, the petrochemical early - morning inventory was flat at 650,000 tons compared with the previous period, and was 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the inventory is at a slightly high - neutral level in recent years. [61] 3.8. Polyolefin Profit In November, the profits of all processes of LLDPE and PP were in the red. Except for a slight increase in the profit of methanol - made LLDPE and PP, the profits of other processes declined. [65]

冠通期货研究报告 --2025年12月PVC月度报告 发布日期：2025年12月01日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情回顾 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 数据来源：博易大师 冠通研究 3 PVC上游 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，上周PVC开工率环比增加1.39个百分点至80.22%，PVC开工率继续增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。12月PVC计划检修 的装置较少，预计PVC开工维持在高位。PVC下游开工率基本稳定，主要是软制品在支撑。12月将进入传统的需求淡季，预计下游 开工率将持续回落。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC 以价换量，只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下 ...

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --12月尿素月度报告 发布日期：2025年12月1日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 核心观点 供应端：近期日产位于19-20万吨附近波动，高位日产持续压制尿素价格，目前气头装置暂未大规模集中限气停产，日产大幅同比偏高。按 照目前日均产量测算，11月份产量预计在599万吨，高于往年同期水平。进入供暖高峰期，气头装置受限气影响，逐渐开启检修停产，预计 12月日产将环比下降。 需求端：下游需求成交顺畅，东北地区掺混肥需求下，大颗粒走货转好，复合肥工厂开工负荷逐步抬升，东北地区复合肥工厂开启生产， 已有部分工厂满负荷。工厂处于冬储生产阶段，12月份将继续高负荷生产，目前预收订单生产中，后续厂内成品库存将继续增加，为华北 大部小麦返青 肥、春玉米肥备货。其他工业需求刚需托底为主，房地产低迷拖累开工。 库存端：自十月中旬以来，尿 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --2025年12月沥青月度报告 发布日期：2025年12月01日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 沥青/原油 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 数据来源：Wind 冠通研究 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升3.0个百分点至27.8%，较去年同期低了4.7个百分点，仍处于近年同期最低水平。据隆众资 讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下 游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至29%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇生 产，船发良好，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加6.74%至26.21万吨，处于中性水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent trend of crude oil prices is expected to be volatile. After the Fed's December interest - rate meeting, the market will still worry about crude oil demand. With OPEC+ continuing to increase production, rising exports from the Middle East, and a continuous increase in global crude oil floating storage, the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in late December. However, if the Russia - Ukraine peace talks reach a deadlock and Russian oil product exports are restricted, crude oil prices may be firm [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - From late October to mid - November, crude oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The market digested the news of Russian crude oil being sanctioned by Europe and the US. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders met market expectations, and bilateral relations remained unchanged. OPEC+ planned to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend the increase in the first quarter of next year, alleviating concerns about supply pressure in Q1 2026. EIA inventory continued to accumulate, and US ISM manufacturing data was poor. OPEC adjusted the third - quarter 2025 global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices. However, factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, rising gasoline and diesel crack spreads in Europe and the US, and the escalation of the Venezuelan situation supported crude oil prices. In late November, the Trump administration tried to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, causing crude oil prices to fall. Near the end of the month, as the possibility of a near - term Russia - Ukraine peace agreement was low, crude oil prices rebounded slightly [7]. 3.2 Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - In November, the net position of WTI was not announced. The net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds increased after hitting a low in November. As of the week ending November 18, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds increased by 13,497 contracts to 178,364 contracts, an increase of 8.19% and 3.96% compared to the end of October. The enthusiasm for speculative long positions in crude oil began to recover but remained at a low level in recent years. - As of November 26, the Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt volume decreased by 738,000 barrels to 3.464 million barrels compared to the end of October, still at a low level [11]. 3.3 Crude Oil Production - On the supply side, OPEC's latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in September was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day. Its production in October 2025 increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ crude oil production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. - The latest OPEC+ meeting agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026. Eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. - In the week ending November 21, US crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day, near the historical high [15]. 3.4 Oil Drilling Rigs - In November, the number of US oil drilling rigs continued to decline. As of the week ending November 26, the number of US oil drilling rigs was 407, a decrease of 12 compared to the previous week and 7 compared to the week ending October 31. The significant decrease of 12 US oil drilling platforms in a week increased the expectation that low oil prices would limit US crude oil production growth [19]. 3.5 US Crude Oil Imports and Exports - According to US Energy Administration data, as of the week ending November 21, US crude oil imports increased by 486,000 barrels per day to 6.436 million barrels per day, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years; US crude oil exports decreased by 560,000 barrels per day to 3.598 million barrels per day, also at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [23]. 3.6 China's Crude Oil Processing Volume and Imports - China's domestic crude oil processing volume rebounded month - on - month. In October, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 1.18% month - on - month to 63.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.40%, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. From January to October, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume increased by 4.00% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate continued to rise slightly. - China's domestic crude oil imports also rebounded month - on - month, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. In October, China's crude oil imports increased by 2.35% month - on - month to 48.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. From January to October, China's cumulative crude oil imports increased by 3.10% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased slightly [27]. 3.7 US Dollar Index - The director of the US White House National Economic Council, Hassett, said that if nominated as the Fed Chairman, he "would be very happy to serve." - The expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut has increased [30]. 3.8 Gasoline Crack Spread - The US is trying to promote Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US have fallen from their highs. In November, the gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $2.0 per barrel and $0.5 per barrel respectively. The diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $3.0 per barrel and $5.0 per barrel respectively [34]. 3.9 US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA monthly report predicts that global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. The OPEC monthly report adjusted the third - quarter 2025 global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. Additionally, the OPEC monthly report maintained the forecast of the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day. The IEA monthly report raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day; it also raised the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day. - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease compared to the same period last year, shifting from being higher than the same period last year to lower. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, a 0.06% increase compared to the same period last year; the weekly diesel demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, a 0.17% decrease compared to the same period last year. Although diesel demand declined significantly month - on - month, the rebound in gasoline and other oil products drove the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase month - on - month [38]. 3.10 Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of November 26, US EIA data showed that as of the week ending November 21, US crude oil inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 55,000 barrels, and was 4.50% lower than the five - year average. It increased by 10.963 million barrels in the past four weeks. The Cushing area inventory was reported at 21.753 million barrels, a decrease of 68,000 barrels compared to the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and decreased by 812,000 barrels in the past four weeks. - US gasoline inventory increased by 2.513 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 745,000 barrels. It decreased by 834,000 barrels in the past four weeks. Gasoline inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years and continued to accumulate seasonally. - As of the week ending November 21, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 411.4 million barrels, the highest since the week ending September 30, 2022. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has increased for 18 consecutive weeks. - On November 20, 2025, the US Department of Energy announced a reorganization, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources and replacing the previous department focused on renewable energy and energy efficiency [42][46]. 3.11 Geopolitical Risks - US Secretary of State Rubio said that the talks with Ukraine were "productive" after the new round of US - Ukraine negotiations, but there was still much work to be done. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu formally submitted a pardon request to President Herzog [48].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On December 1st, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with some showing significant gains and others posting losses. The performance of different commodities varied based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical factors, and macro - economic expectations [5]. - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors such as production changes, demand trends, geopolitical events, and macro - economic policies. For example, copper prices are affected by Fed's interest - rate cut probability and production reduction plans; crude oil prices are impacted by OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical tensions, and inventory changes [8][11]. Summary by Commodity Commodity Performance - As of December 1st, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Shipping to Europe via container lines rose over 5%, coking coal rose over 3%, and eggs rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed oil fell over 2%, and palm oil and fuel oil fell over 1%. Among stock index futures, IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, and among bond futures, TS, TF, and T rose while TL fell. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into contracts like Shanghai copper 2601, Shanghai gold 2602, and Shanghai silver 2602, and flowed out of contracts like CSI 1000 2512, CSI 500 2512, and SSE 50 2512 [5][6]. Market Analysis - **Copper**: In December, the probability of a Fed interest - rate cut is high, making copper prices tend to be strong. However, in the off - season, demand weakens, which restricts the upward space of copper prices. Chinese copper smelters plan to cut production by over 10% in 2026, which may stimulate copper prices to rise [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It showed a strong trend. In November 2025, domestic production continued to rise. Although there are concerns about future demand, such as the cancellation of tax - exemption policies for new - energy vehicles next year and the uncertain resumption time of CATL, current orders are high, supporting its strong operation [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The end of the demand peak season, increased inventories in the US, and geopolitical factors have led to an oversupply situation. However, due to factors like the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's expected interest - rate cut, oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, but demand will weaken further. With the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply has new production capacity and some maintenance devices. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, so the upward space is limited [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, but the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply has new production capacity. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [17]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate is at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is large. With the approach of the traditional demand off - season and some negative factors such as price cuts by Formosa Plastics, the upward space is limited [18]. - **Coking Coal**: It showed a strong trend in the short - term, but there is an expectation of peak demand in the future. The supply may decrease next month, and the downstream demand is weakening [19][20]. - **Urea**: It showed a weak trend. With the approach of the heating peak season, the daily production is expected to decline, and the demand for winter storage provides support. The overall supply - demand situation has a certain anti - decline ability [21].