热点资讯 1. 7月10日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在吉隆坡会见俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫。双方就伊朗核问题交换意见。拉夫罗夫 介绍了俄方立场考虑。王毅表示，武力换不来和平，施压不解决问题，对话谈判才是根本出路。 2. 当地时间7月9日，特朗普宣布对铜征50%关税。中国外交部发言人毛宁对此表示：这个问题我们立场非常明确，我们一贯反 对泛化国家安全概念，我们也始终认为关税战、贸易战没有赢家，滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益。 3. 商务部回应美商务部长称可能于8月初与中方谈判代表会面：目前，双方在多个层级就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通。 早盘速递 2025/7/11 4. 美联储官员穆萨莱姆表示， 当前经济形势良好， 关税的具体影响可能要到今年晚些时候或明年初才会完全显现出来。 5.旧金山联储主席戴利表示，她仍认为今年可能会有两次降息，并指出关税对价格的影响较预期更为温和的可能性正在上升。 重点关注 烧碱、纯苯、焦煤、尿素、菜油 夜盘表现 板块表现 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.75% 贵金属, 27.19% 油脂油料, ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/07/11 隔夜夜盘市场走势 5. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，大豆期货涨 0.67%报 1014 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨 0.12%报 416.5 美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货 涨 1.28%报 554.5 美分/蒲式耳。 1. 国际油价走弱，美油主力合约收跌 2.21%，报 66.87 美元/桶；布伦特原油主 力合约跌 1.91%，报 68.85 美元/桶。市场对全球需求前景的担忧加剧，叠加美 国 EIA 原油库存意外增加 707 万桶，远超市场预期，导致油价承压下行。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.36%报 3333.00 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 2.72%报 37.63 美元/盎司。美国财政赤字和关税政策加剧通 胀担忧，全球央行持续增持黄金支撑市场。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数上涨，LME 期镍涨 2.04%报 15285.00 美元/吨，LME 期 锌涨 1.26%报 2777.00 美元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - In June 2025, China's CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, with urban areas up 0.1%, rural areas down 0.2%, food prices down 0.3%, non-food prices up 0.1%, consumer goods prices down 0.2%, and service prices up 0.5%. The CPI for the first half of the year was down 0.1% compared to the same period last year [2] - The vessel "Eternal C" flying the Liberian flag and operated by Greece sank after being attacked by Houthi rebels near Yemen, and five crew members have been rescued [2] - The US government will restrict Chinese citizens and other so - called "foreign adversaries" from buying farmland in the US, which China's spokesperson criticized as discriminatory and harmful to the US itself [2] - The General Office of the State Council issued a notice to increase support for stable employment policies, including supporting enterprises to stabilize jobs and expanding the scope of special loans for stable and expanded employment [2] - After including the tariffs announced by Trump on August 1 for 14 countries, the average US tariff rate will rise from 13.4% to 14.6% [3] - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that most participants thought it might be appropriate to cut the federal funds rate this year, and the upward pressure on inflation from tariffs might be temporary or moderate [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: caustic soda, pure benzene, coking coal, urea, and rapeseed oil [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.85%, precious metals 27.21%, oilseeds and oils 12.63%, non - ferrous metals 20.32%, soft commodities 2.88%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.17%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.82% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data is presented in a chart and not detailed in text [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.13 | 1.41 | 4.22 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.26 | 1.03 | 2.05 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.18 | 1.41 | 1.44 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.41 | 0.64 | 3.98 | | | S&P 500 | 0.61 | 0.94 | 6.49 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.06 | - 0.75 | 19.10 | | | German DAX | 1.42 | 2.68 | 23.31 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.33 | - 1.65 | - 0.18 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.15 | 1.21 | 8.49 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.11 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.03 | 0.00 | - 0.36 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.21 | 1.47 | 1.66 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.06 | 5.06 | - 5.05 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.38 | 0.33 | 26.25 | | | LME Copper | - 1.33 | - 2.21 | 10.00 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 1.01 | - 0.96 | 12.72 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.00 | 0.74 | - 10.13 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.48 | - 3.11 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of coking coal is still strong, driven by supply - side disturbances [3]. - The futures market of lithium carbonate is currently in high - level consolidation but deviates from fundamentals, and there is a risk of an unexpected decline [5]. - If the copper tariff is implemented on August 1, the copper market will be bearish, but caution is needed when short - selling due to potential trade conflicts [10]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate as the Middle East geopolitical risk has cooled, but the post - ceasefire situation needs attention [11]. - It is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt at low prices as it is gradually entering the peak season [13]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to factors such as downstream demand and trade issues [15]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future, affected by trade and demand factors [16]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level with large pressure before demand improves substantially [18]. - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate within a range as it has high inventory and short - term demand pressure [19]. - Soybean meal is expected to continue to oscillate weakly as supply is abundant and demand is limited [21]. - The short - term trend of rebar is affected by supply contraction expectations and capital, but the uncertainty of the off - season fundamentals remains [23]. - Hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate strongly due to improved supply - demand structure, cost support, and policy factors [26]. - Urea is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by export orders and international prices [27]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Today, coking coal opened and closed higher. The prices in the Shanxi market and Mongolia increased. From July 10 - 17, the Sino - Mongolian border is closed, and domestic mines are resuming production. The supply pressure is relieved, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is bullish in the short term [3]. Lithium Carbonate - It opened high and closed down. The spot price is rising, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. The futures market is affected by non - fundamental factors. If the demand recovers in July, the price may be boosted [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened low and then rose. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1. The supply may increase, and the demand is expected to decline in the off - season. The market is bearish in the future [10]. Crude Oil - The Middle East geopolitical risk has cooled, reducing concerns about supply disruptions. However, the post - ceasefire situation needs attention. OPEC + will increase production in August, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. Asphalt - The supply is increasing, but the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices as it is entering the peak season [13]. PP - The downstream开工率 is low, and the supply pressure is relieved by new capacity and maintenance. It is expected to oscillate at a low level due to trade and demand issues [14][15]. Plastic - The开工率 is at a low - to - neutral level, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply pressure is relieved by new capacity and reduced开工率. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future [16]. PVC - The supply is decreasing, but the demand is still weak, and the inventory is high. The new capacity is about to be put into production. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. Soybean Oil - The price is oscillating upward. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure due to factors such as bio - diesel and palm oil substitution. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [19]. Soybean Meal - The price closed higher. The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly [21]. Rebar - It showed a "bottom - hunting and rising" trend. The supply is expected to contract, and the demand shows off - season resilience. The price is rising due to multiple factors, but the uncertainty remains [22][23]. Hot - rolled Coils - It showed a "breaking through the previous high and rising" pattern. The supply is contracting in some areas, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [24][26]. Urea - The price opened high and closed with an increase. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The inventory is decreasing, and the export is supported. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [27].

【冠通研究】 铜关税引行情波动 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 10 日 【策略分析】 今日铜低开低走午后拉涨。特朗普周三宣布对铜征收 50%的关税，并在社交媒体上 表示，这一关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，称这一决定是在国家安全评估后做出的。中国 6 月 CPI 同比涨 0.1%，核心 CPI 涨幅创 14 个月新高，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.6%。供给方面， 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，现货粗炼费为-43.31 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。 目前铜冶炼厂加工费预计止跌回稳，铜供应偏紧的预期或将有所改善，铜关税靴子落 地，美国进口铜通道或将关闭，关税若尽快实施，海上流通货物或回流至出口国港口， 可流通货物将增加。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比 上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。预计 7 月转为季节性消费淡季阶段，铜杆和线缆 反馈订单和用铜下降，开工负荷将下降。近期铜价走强，下游采购积极性降低，交投情 绪稍显谨慎，目前市场看跌情绪下，采购情绪进一步被抑制。整体来看，8 月 1 日开始 征收关税的话，后续套利通道将关闭，出口需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The international urea price has boosted the sentiment of the domestic market. Although the current industrial demand is weak, export orders are still being shipped, and there is a partial increase in agricultural demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The nitrogen association has announced the export guidance price for urea. Overall, the international price is rising, and the domestic urea sentiment is also high. Supported by factory export orders and ongoing port collection, the futures market still has support and will remain mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to export policy changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened high and closed low, with a late - day plunge but still closing up. The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The daily production of urea changed little, and some previously overhauled devices were expected to resume production, increasing output. Both agricultural and industrial demand were cautious in purchasing, mainly for replenishing inventory as needed. Agricultural demand was better than industrial demand, and it was expected to end in the Northeast and North China this month. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, with only a slight increase. The factory was in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, mainly clearing inventory, and was waiting and seeing, purchasing urea only as needed. Despite weak industrial demand, export orders were being shipped, and inventory was continuously decreasing. The nitrogen association announced the export guidance price for urea. The market was expected to be mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1777 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 1,642 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,140 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed [2] - **Spot**: The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei factories ranged from 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract was 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7] - **Supply Data**: On July 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.63% [10] - **Downstream Data**: From July 4th to July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On July 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,645, an increase of 400 compared to the previous trading day, with 400 more in Meishan Xindu [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - US to impose tariffs of 25% - 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, 2025, and Trump plans to add a 50% tariff on imported copper, higher than market expectations, with no implementation time announced, leading to a sharp rise in US copper prices and a fall in prices in other regions [2][48]. - US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, increasing market hesitation about the Fed's interest rate cut [2][48]. - Domestically, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission focused on market construction and economic development, emphasizing regulation of corporate competition and improvement of product quality [2][48]. - As of July 4, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was -$43.31 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was -4.31 cents per pound. Copper supply tightness may ease, and if tariffs are implemented, the US copper import channel may close, increasing available goods [2][48]. - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. July is expected to be a seasonal consumption off - peak, with reduced orders and copper usage in copper rods and cables [2][48]. - Overall, with the copper tariff settled, previous large - scale copper shipments to the US pushed US copper inventories to a high and those in other regions to a low. If the arbitrage channel closes, export demand will drop sharply. However, due to the uncertain implementation time of the tariff, caution is advised when shorting [2][48]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Fundamental Information - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49, higher than the expected 48.8. The new orders index dropped, while output entered the expansion range [4]. - Non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, mainly driven by state and local government employment growth [4]. 3.2 Recent Latest Developments in Copper Mining Disturbances - Shengda Resources' Honglin Mining Caiyuanzi Copper - Gold Mine is expected to start trial production from July to September 2025 [6]. - Dowstone Technologies plans to invest up to $165 million in a 30 - kiloton cathode copper wet - smelting plant project in Congo (Kinshasa) [7][8]. 3.3 LME Copper/Shanghai Copper Price Analysis - This week, the center of copper prices moved down. As of July 8, the weekly high of Shanghai copper was 80,990 yuan/ton, the low was 79,120 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 2.32% and a decline of 1.26%. For LME copper, the weekly high was $10,020.5/ton, the low was $9,569.5/ton, with an amplitude of 4.54% and a decline of 2.80% [9]. - As of July 9, the spot premium in East China was 50 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 35 yuan/ton. The LME official price was $9,845/ton, and the spot premium was $80/ton. With the copper tariff settled, export demand declined, and the spot premium weakened [16]. 3.4 Copper Inventory Information - As of July 4, 2025, the domestic refined copper concentrate inventory at 7 major ports decreased by 47,000 tons to 440,000 tons. The smelting processing fee is expected to stabilize, but it is still negative [19]. - In May 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.935 million tons. From January to May, imports were 12.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4% [19][41]. - As of July 9, COMEX copper inventory decreased by 113,902 short tons to 221,800 short tons, a decline of 53.69%. LME copper inventory was 107,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.88% [25]. - As of July 7, the bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong was 70,800 tons. As of July 8, SHFE copper inventory was 21,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,761 tons or 14.99%. With the impact of copper tariffs, inventory is expected to accumulate [29]. 3.5 Refined Copper Monthly Import and Export Summary - As of July 4, the average import loss of refined copper was - 770.56 yuan/ton, a significant reduction from the previous period [41]. - In May 2025, China exported 114,171 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 23.6%. From January to May, cumulative exports were 594,797 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.2% [41]. - In May 2025, China's unwrought copper and copper products imports were 427,000 tons. From January to May, imports were 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7% [41]. 3.6 Downstream Terminal Demand - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. July is expected to be a seasonal consumption off - peak [42]. - In June, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, slightly higher than expected but still below the boom - bust line [42]. - The copper rod industry has entered the off - season, with reduced production and sales orders. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern [45]. - The copper foil market has little change, with a supply - surplus situation and limited procurement enthusiasm [45]. - The copper tube market had poor transactions due to high prices. At the end of June, enterprises entered the production - reduction stage [45].

1. Hot News - Houthi rebels attacked the Greek - operated, Liberian - flagged vessel "ETERNITY C" near Hodeidah, Yemen, resulting in two deaths. It's the first seaman - fatality incident in the Red Sea since June 2024 [2] - In June, domestic retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. In the first six months, the cumulative domestic retail sales reached 5.468 million, a year - on - year increase of 33.3% [2] - Trump said on the 7th that starting from August 1st, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that tariff and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2] - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will make an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on the 7th that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues [2] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, pure benzene, methanol, urea, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - In the night - session, different commodity sectors had varying performances. Non - metallic building materials rose 2.82%, precious metals 27.55%, oilseeds and oils 12.51%, non - ferrous metals 20.69%, soft commodities 2.84%, coal - coke - steel - ore 13.84%, energy 3.11%, chemicals 12.69%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [3] 4. Plate Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coke - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% daily, 1.54% monthly, and 4.35% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.07% daily but had a 0.33% monthly and 5.85% annual increase; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.09% daily, 0.31% monthly, and 20.38% annually [5] - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, had a 0.11% monthly increase, and a 0.09% annual increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.02% monthly, and 0.38% annually [5] - **Commodities**: The CRB Commodity Index rose 1.01% daily, 1.69% monthly, and 1.88% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.47% daily, 5.00% monthly, but fell 5.10% annually; London spot gold fell 1.07% daily, 0.05% monthly, but rose 25.78% annually [5] - **Others**: The US Dollar Index fell 0.06% daily, had a 0.74% monthly increase, and a 10.13% annual decrease; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, had a 6.34% monthly increase, and a 2.54% annual increase [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of multiple major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premiums of some stock indices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: As of July 9, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with polysilicon up over 5%, coking coal up nearly 4%, and several other commodities up over 1% or 2%. Some contracts like international copper, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai nickel declined over 1%. Stock index futures mostly fell slightly, while treasury bond futures were mixed [7]. - **Commodity - Specific**: - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is strong, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and coking enterprises have a price - increase expectation. However, the supply - demand surplus situation has not been reversed, and the upside space is expected to be limited, with short - term trading likely to be volatile and slightly strong [3]. - **Copper**: The US copper tariff has been finalized, but the implementation time is uncertain. The supply shortage expectation may improve, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season. Under the current market sentiment of expecting price drops, caution is advised when short - selling [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and deviates from the fundamentals. The supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. If the demand recovers as expected, the price may be boosted [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has significantly decreased, but the subsequent development of the situation still needs attention. OPEC + plans to increase production, and the oil price is expected to trade in a range [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with attention to the development of the global trade war [15]. - **Plastic**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with attention to the development of the global trade war [16]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand has not improved substantially, the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [18]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term inventory pressure is rising, the demand is weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in July, with attention to oil refinery ship purchases and imported soybean arrivals [19][20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price may be affected by the oil price. It is necessary to pay attention to the US biodiesel policy [21]. - **Rebar**: The supply contraction is less than expected, the demand has not increased significantly, the inventory may accumulate, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range [22][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to trade in a volatile manner [24]. - **Urea**: Affected by the improvement of the Indian tender price, the domestic market sentiment is high. Although the demand is weak, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, with attention to export policies [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Hot - Spot Varieties - **Coking Coal**: Opened high and closed high, with prices rising. The supply is affected by imports and domestic production, and the demand is affected by downstream profits and production. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [3]. - **Copper**: The US plans to impose tariffs on imported copper, affecting the price. The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season. Caution is advised when short - selling [4][5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened low and closed high, with prices rising. The supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, OPEC + plans to increase production, and the price is expected to trade in a range [11][12]. 3.2 Other Commodities - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by funds and weather, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [15]. - **Plastic**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [16]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand has not improved substantially, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [18]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term inventory pressure is rising, the demand is weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in July [19][20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price may be affected by the oil price [21]. - **Rebar**: The supply contraction is less than expected, the demand has not increased significantly, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range [22][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to trade in a volatile manner [24]. - **Urea**: Affected by the Indian tender price, the domestic market sentiment is high. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [27].

【冠通研究】 现货市场热情高涨 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 9 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面高开低走，日内维持高位运行。现货市场较前期火爆，多家工厂 出现停售现象，贸易商拿货积极，目前工厂待发充足，预计后续暂无降价压 力。基本面来看，日产变动不大，前期检修装置本期陆续有复产情况，预计产 量将有增加。需求端，市场有效需求偏弱，农业需求及工业需求拿货谨慎，刚 需补库为主。农业需求状况好于工业需求，天气多发降雨，农业需求目前也维 持低位拿货，适量补库，预计本月东北华北地区都将迎来收尾，届时将迎来空 窗期。复合肥工厂开工负荷低位，处于秋季肥生产初期阶段，订单以去化厂内 库存为主，工厂销售压力不大，秋季肥多为预收订单，工厂目前观望情绪浓 厚，对尿素保持刚需拿货。虽目前工业需求偏弱，但出口订单依然在发运，农 业需求有局部增量，库存连续去化。整体来说，受印标价格好转的影响，国内 尿素情绪同样高涨，今日期现价格呈现不同幅度的上涨，现货端更出现停售现 象。工厂出口订单支撑，集港陆续进行，盘面依然有支撑，短期依旧以震荡偏 强为主，继续关注出口政策情况。 1 现货方面：现货市场较前期火爆，多家工厂出现停售现象，贸易商拿货积极， ...