Group 1: Hot News - Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on all non-US-made cars, and tariffs on the pharmaceutical and timber industries. The car tariff will take effect on April 2 and be collected starting April 3, on top of the existing 2.5% tariff [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce opposes the US adding multiple Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List" and will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese entities [2] - The US may impose tariffs on imported copper within weeks, months ahead of the final decision deadline [2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released a work plan to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries in the national carbon emissions trading market, marking the official implementation of the first expansion of the market's industry coverage [2] - The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue alert for severe convective weather, forecasting thunderstorms, gales, or hail in parts of Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian from 08:00 on March 27 to 08:00 on March 28 [2] Group 2: Key Focus and Night Session Performance - Key commodities to focus on are iron ore, coking coal, glass, copper, and palm oil [3] - Night session performance shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 3.80%, precious metals 22.20%, oilseeds and oils 12.92%, soft commodities 3.08%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.39%, energy 2.53%, chemicals 14.63%, grains 1.78%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.22% [3] Group 3: Large Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.04% daily, 1.44% monthly, and 0.51% year-to-date; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.60% daily, 2.36% monthly, and 17.07% year-to-date [7] - In the fixed-income category, the 10-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.27% daily, -0.24% monthly, and -0.85% year-to-date [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index was flat daily, up 1.55% monthly, and 3.30% year-to-date; WTI crude oil rose 1.33% daily, -0.06% monthly, and -2.78% year-to-date [7] - Other assets include the US Dollar Index being flat daily, -3.12% monthly, and -3.94% year-to-date; the CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, -12.63% monthly, and -1.15% year-to-date [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 26 日 热点品种 尿素： 尿素主力合约平开低走尾盘拉涨。上游工厂报价稳定为主，部分工厂下调价格后， 市场交投气氛好，期货飘红，价格上调，目前市场价格延续上涨态势。供给端， 今日山东联盟复产，周内仍有工厂有检修计划，日产预计维持 20 万吨左右。需 求端，下游心态买涨不买跌，企业预收订单良好，本期预售订单天数小幅减少， 但仍处于同期中高位。复合肥厂开工率高，托举盘面价格，夏季肥收单顺畅，含 氮复合肥乃当季主推。农需 4 月水稻备肥在即，农需方面有增加预期。本周库存 继续去化，且近两期去化幅度有扩大。综合来看，工需托底，农需有上涨预期， 价格易涨难跌，警惕高价抬升后，下游接受能力欠缺。供需双旺，盘面高位盘整， 市场上涨动力不足，等待新的驱动。 塑料： 新增兰州石化 HDPE、独山子石化新全密度 1 线等检修装置，塑料开工率下降至 86%左右，目前开工率降至中性水平。春节假期后第七周，PE 下游开工率环比 继续回升，农膜原料库存继续回升，但农膜订单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Oscillating operation", and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position in the near term [1] Core Viewpoints - The asphalt supply side shows a decline in the start - up rate, while the downstream start - up rate is rebounding slowly. Although the inventory is at a low level and is expected to continue to accumulate, considering factors such as geopolitical impacts on crude oil supply, it is advisable to try long positions with a light position in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 27.2% month - on - month, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and is close to the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in March is 238.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.8 million tons or 13.2%. The downstream start - up rate is rebounding, but the road asphalt start - up rate is still low. The government plans to increase bond issuance, and attention should be paid to the progress of physical work volume. The national shipment volume increased by 25.99% month - on - month to 229,300 tons but is still at a low level. The refinery inventory is at a low level but is expected to continue to accumulate. Due to geopolitical factors affecting crude oil supply, it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The asphalt futures 2506 contract rose 0.36% to 3,627 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,625 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,650 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 925 to 224,628 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract fell to 13 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the start - up rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 27.2% month - on - month. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 10.80% year - on - year. From January to February 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, while the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6% year - on - year. As of the week of March 21, the downstream start - up rate continued to rebound, but the road asphalt start - up rate was still low. The government plans to implement a more active fiscal policy and increase bond issuance [4] Inventory - As of the week of March 21, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 20.7% compared with the week of March 14, and is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

【冠通研究】 原油：震荡上行 制作日期：2025年3月26日 【策略分析】 近期原油轻仓试多 供应端，欧佩克+意外决定将在4月执行此前多次推迟的增产计划，每月将增加13.8桶/日左右的 石油产量。特朗普政府考虑在关键航道拦截伊朗油轮，以打击伊朗石油供应链。美国表示俄乌均同 意在黑海确保航行安全，均同意制定措施落实俄乌能源设施停火，不过俄罗斯表示黑海航行安全协 议将在撤销部分制裁后生效。美国石油钻机数量上周减少1部，美国原油产量3月14日当周环比减少 0.2万桶/日至1357.3万桶/日，较12月上旬创下的历史最高位回落5.8万桶/日。需求端，美国炼厂开 工率上升0.6个百分点至86.5%，EIA数据显示美国原油库存增幅不及预期，但成品油库存减幅超预期， 整体油品库存减少。特朗普的关税政策令市场担忧全球经济。特朗普对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝 征收25%关税的举措已正式生效。加拿大和欧盟宣布对美国产品征收报复性关税。美联储维持利率不 变，今明两年维持各降息两次的预测，但倾向鸽派的官员变少。美国能源部长赖特称计划寻求至多 200亿美元的资金，将美国石油储备补充到最大容量。在OPEC+逐步增产及俄罗斯原油海运出口量仍 ...

【冠通研究】 PP：高开震荡 PP2505合约高开后减仓震荡运行，最低价7312元/吨，最高价7338元/吨，最终收盘于7328元 /吨，在20日均线上方，涨幅0.03%。持仓量减少1282手至385001手。 现货方面： PP现货品种价格涨跌互现。拉丝报7150-7540元/吨，共聚报7265-7740元/吨。 数据来源：博易大师 冠通研究 制作日期：2025年3月26日 【策略分析】 观望 春节假期后第七周，PP下游整体开工环比继续回升，但仍处于年内较低水平。其中塑编开工率 环比回升0.9个百分点至47.4%，塑编订单继续小幅回升，与前两年同期基本相当。美国加征关税不 利于PP下游制品出口。新增海南乙烯等检修装置，PP企业开工率下降至82%左右，处于中性水平，标 品拉丝生产比例上涨至28%左右。下游逐步复工，2月底石化去库加快，近期去库一般，目前石化库 存降至近年农历同期偏低水平。上游原油价格企稳反弹给予成本支撑。供应上内蒙古宝丰3#3月刚投 产，近期检修装置增加较多，下游恢复缓慢，新增订单有限，补仓意愿偏弱，成交一般。不过，下 游需求有望继续恢复，近期检修装置增加较多，建议PP05合约观望为主。 【期现 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【冠通研究】 短期低位震荡 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 26 日 【策略分析】 短期低位震荡 今日焦煤主力高开后偏弱震荡，收盘价格重心变动有限。国内矿山开工小幅下滑， 蒙煤通关量回升，供应端压力仍较大。两会后环保限产影响逐渐弱化，下游焦炭 产量有所恢复，但焦炭库存中等偏高，十一轮提降后亏损压力较大，焦煤需求端 有支撑无弹性。盘面超跌反弹，市场情绪有所回暖，焦煤竞拍价格上涨，铁水尚 未见顶，刚需支撑仍存，但粗钢减产愈演愈烈，对炉料端形成抑制，加之移仓换 月阶段，预计盘面上下空间均有限，短期低位震荡为主，前期空单逢低逐渐止盈。 2505 合约下方支撑关注 980-1000 元/吨附近。 【期货行情】 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约微幅高开后偏弱运行，最终收盘于 1025.5 元/ 吨，-0.5 元/吨，涨跌幅-0.05%。成交量 18.86 万手，持仓 36.38 万手，-5043 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1080 元/吨，较上个交易日持平；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 850 元/吨，较上个交易日- ...

【冠通研究】 反弹幅度不宜过度乐观，继续验证旺季需求强度 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 26 日 【策略分析】 反弹幅度不宜过度乐观，继续验证旺季需求强度 【期现行情】 螺纹 2505 小时 K 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 数据来源：博易大师，冠通期货 期货方面：螺纹钢主力 RB2505 开盘 3220 元/吨，收盘于 3209 元/吨，+2 元/吨， 涨跌幅+0.06%；热卷主力开盘 3388 元/吨，收盘于 3386 元/吨，+4 元/吨，涨跌 幅+0.12%。持仓方面，今日螺纹钢 RB2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 933441 手， -51086 手，前二十名空头持仓为 1096910 手，-41552 手，多减空减；热卷 HC2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 573638 手，-36869 手，前二十名空头持仓为 625194 手，-24279 手，多减空减。 现货方面：今日国内钢材价格稳中小幅涨跌，上海地区螺纹钢现货价格为 3260 元/吨（-20 元/吨）；上海地区热轧卷板现货价格为 3390 元/吨（+0 元/吨）。今 日钢材 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The industrial demand provides a bottom - support, and there is an expected increase in agricultural demand. The price of urea is likely to rise and difficult to fall. However, it should be noted that the downstream may have limited acceptance of high prices. The market is in a state of high - level consolidation with insufficient upward momentum, waiting for new drivers [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea main contract opened flat, declined during the session, and rose at the end of the session. Upstream factory quotes were mainly stable. After some factories lowered prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and prices increased. The current market price continues to rise [1]. - On the supply side, Shandong Union resumed production today, and some factories still have maintenance plans this week. The daily output is expected to remain around 200,000 tons [1]. - On the demand side, downstream buyers follow the "buy - on - rising" mentality. Enterprises have good advance orders. Although the number of days of pre - sale orders decreased slightly this period, it is still at a medium - to - high level in the same period. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is high, supporting the futures price. The summer fertilizer sales are smooth, and nitrogen - containing compound fertilizers are the main products in this season. There is an expected increase in agricultural demand as rice fertilization for the April planting season is approaching [1]. - This week, the inventory continued to decline, and the decline rate in the past two periods has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2505 contract opened at 1,890 yuan/ton, declined during the session, and finally rose at the end of the session to close at 1,890 yuan/ton, forming a positive candlestick. The daily trading volume increased, and the open interest was 253,857 lots (+717 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 8,423 lots, and short positions increased by 8,509 lots. Haitong Futures' net long positions increased by 2,172 lots, Haizheng Futures' net long positions increased by 1,469 lots, CITIC Futures' net short positions increased by 8,266 lots, and Dongwu Futures' net short positions decreased by 2,758 lots [2]. - On March 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,561, a decrease of 125 from the previous trading day. Among them, Ningling Stanley decreased by 25, and Jiasili Pingyuan decreased by 100 [2]. Spot - Today, the quotes of upstream factories across the country fluctuated slightly. After the trading atmosphere improved and the futures market rose, some factories that had previously lowered prices raised their prices. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,840 - 1,880 yuan/ton. The price of urea factories in Shanxi increased slightly today. The price of small - particle urea in some factories in the province reached about 1,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the price of large - particle urea rose to 1,850 - 1,860 yuan/ton, with the lower end up about 40 yuan/ton compared to yesterday [4]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, while the futures closing price increased. Based on the Shandong region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract was 20 yuan/ton (-6 yuan/ton) [5]. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 26, 2025, the national daily urea output was 195,900 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 85.95% [9]. Enterprise Inventory Data - According to Longzhong Information, as of March 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 867,800 tons, a decrease of 170,200 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 16.40% [12]. Pre - sale Order Days - According to Longzhong Information, as of March 26, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.81 days, a decrease of 0.37 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15% [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental contradictions of iron ore are not significant, and it will mainly fluctuate in the short term. The supply - side pressure of iron ore is gradually rising, while the demand still has room for short - term growth, but the pressure on port inventory depletion may gradually emerge. The recent improvement in the trading atmosphere of finished products has boosted market sentiment. Although the demand side still supports the ore price to some extent, the disturbance of crude steel production cuts has increased. The 2505 contract is expected to operate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, the black series opened higher and then mainly fluctuated. The closing price center of iron ore moved slightly upward. The supply - side pressure of iron ore is gradually rising, and the demand still has room for short - term growth. The recent improvement in the trading atmosphere of finished products has boosted market sentiment. The demand side still supports the ore price, but the disturbance of crude steel production cuts has increased. The 2505 contract is expected to operate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - The main iron ore I2505 contract opened lower and then fluctuated strongly, closing at 780 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.19%. The trading volume was 239,500 lots, and the open interest was 411,600 lots, a decrease of 11,360 lots. The top 20 long - position holders held 261,313 lots, a decrease of 9,754 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders held 280,855 lots, a decrease of 1,426 lots [2][4]. Fundamental Tracking - From March 17th to March 23rd, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,084,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 221,200 tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1,878,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,400 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,492,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45,800 tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 636,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 156,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,639,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 355,400 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,510,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 365,800 tons. As of March 21st, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of iron ore concentrates at 126 domestic mines were 41,110 tons and 65.17% respectively, a month - on - month increase of 430 tons per day and 0.69 percentage points [5]. - In terms of fundamentals, the shipment of foreign mines has increased slightly this period, with Brazil contributing the main increment, and the shipment is at a relatively high level. The arrival volume has increased slightly from a high level, and it is expected to remain at a medium - to - high level. The iron ore price has been above the cost line of non - mainstream mines, and the squeezing effect on non - mainstream mine shipments is limited. The supply will remain loose in the long - term. On the demand side, the growth rate of molten iron has increased significantly. The steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and the resumption of production is expected to continue, but the growth rate of molten iron may slow down. In terms of inventory, the arrival volume has declined from a high level, and downstream steel mills replenish inventory at low prices, resulting in small fluctuations in port inventory. Steel mills still maintain a low - inventory strategy, and high inventory will limit the upside space of ore prices in the long - term [6].

早盘速递 2025/3/26 热点资讯 1、 据英国《金融时报》，美国总统特朗普着眼于4月2日出台两步走的关税计划，其中包括立即征收高达50%的关税，并立即对 进口汽车征收关税。特朗普团队还在讨论对贸易伙伴启动所谓的301调查，并考虑征收15%的临时关税。 2、 央行3月25日开展3779亿元7天期逆回购操作，投标量与中标量均为3779亿元。这是央行首次详细披露投标量和中标量。当 日有2733亿元逆回购到期。不过，央行并未披露MLF最新中标利率，业内人士认为，MLF利率政策属性退出后，目前不公布多重 价位的中标利率可能是避免被误解为降息。 3、 美国发布与俄乌会谈声明称，美国和俄罗斯、乌克兰已同意在黑海确保航行安全。美国将帮助俄罗斯恢复农产品和化肥出 口进入世界市场的渠道。美俄乌三方同意制定措施，以实施关于禁止袭击俄罗斯和乌克兰能源设施的协议。 板块持仓 (500,000) (400,000) (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品指数 Wind软商 ...