| 河南 1760 | | | 10 | 1750 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山东 1760 | | | 20 | 1740 | | | 主流地区市场价 山西 1630 | | | 0 | 1630 | | | （元/吨） 江苏 1770 | | | 10 | 1760 | | | 安徽 1770 | | | 10 | 1760 | | | 黑龙江 1780 | | | 0 | 1780 | | | 内蒙古 1790 | | | 0 | 1790 | | | 河北东光 1740 | | | 20 | 1720 | | | 工厂价 山东华鲁 1740 （元/吨） 江苏灵谷 1790 | | | 10 0 | 1730 1790 | | | 安徽昊源 1730 | | | 10 | 1720 | | | 山东05基差 -34 | | | 19 | -53 | | | 山东01基差 -9 基差 | | | 24 | -33 | | | （元/吨） 河北05基差 -34 | | | 9 | -43 | | | 河北01基差 -9 | | | 14 | -2 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The Shanghai copper market opened higher but declined during the day. The copper smelters cannot profit from long - term contracts, with the spot market remaining weakly stable. By - products like sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit sources. The refined copper output is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may tighten the copper supply. Terminal demand shows strong growth, but the copper products sector is cautious, and copper inventories have increased significantly. Trump's decision weakens the expectation of refined copper being included in the tariff scope, and the copper price increase has slowed, but the probability of a sharp decline is low [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and then declined during the day. The refined copper output is expected to drop in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 new smelter delaying its launch. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may control 15% of the global copper supply. Terminal demand grows strongly, but the copper products sector is cautious. Copper inventories have increased significantly, and the copper price increase has slowed, with a low probability of a sharp decline [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper opened higher and declined during the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China is 160 yuan/ton. On January 14, 2026, the LME official price was 13,240 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of +95 US dollars/ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of January 12, the spot TC was - 45.1 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.6 cents/pound [6] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 162,700 tons, an increase of 13,378 tons from the previous period. As of January 12, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 111,000 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons. LME copper inventory is 141,600 tons, an increase of 75 tons. COMEX copper inventory is 535,800 short tons, an increase of 4,090 short tons [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 15th, the plastic's maintenance devices changed little, with an operating rate of around 86%, at a neutral level. The overall downstream operating rate of PE remained at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Although the macro - atmosphere was warm, the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern was limited, and the recent upward space of plastic was expected to be limited. Due to new capacity coming into operation recently, the operating rate was higher than that of PP, and the peak season of agricultural film was gradually ending, so the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% month - on - month. The orders of agricultural film continued to decline, and the raw material inventory also decreased, while the orders of packaging film increased slightly. The inventory accumulation amplitude during the New Year's Day this year was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. New capacity was put into operation recently, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. With the temperature dropping, the northern demand decreased, and it was expected that the downstream operating rate would decline later [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then increased positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6746 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6888 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6785 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.54%. The open interest increased by 980 lots to 467,506 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market mostly rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6720 - 6920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9100 - 9360 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8440 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 15th, the plastic operating rate remained at around 86%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% month - on - month. The orders of agricultural film continued to decline, and the raw material inventory decreased, while the orders of packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE remained at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 530,000 tons week - on - week, 5,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation amplitude during the New Year's Day this year was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton month - on - month, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $745/ton month - on - month [4].

1. Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating of the glass industry is "shock", indicating short - term volatility [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the interest rate cut news, market sentiment cooled, downstream hesitation increased, and there is an expectation of supply contraction before the Spring Festival. It is expected that glass prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with the possibility of weakening if the price breaks below the 20 - day moving average later. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold repair situations [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass futures main contract opened high and closed low, with a short - term weakening signal. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 355,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 20,430 lots. The closing price was 1086 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.55% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: Most glass enterprises maintained stable prices, with only a few enterprises in some regions raising prices. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 66 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of float glass was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry's average operating rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The overall glass enterprise inventory is showing a downward trend [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and home - improvement orders are mainly small - value scattered orders [2] Macro - news - On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to support economic structural transformation and optimization [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report anticipates that coke will continue its short - term rebound, and suggests a low - buying strategy. Traders should focus on the support at the previous low and the resistance at the previous high [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Analysis Coke Inventory - As of January 9, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 6.04% month - on - month to 86.07 tons, the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 0.27% to 645.73 tons, and the port coke inventory rose to 249.1 tons. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 2.22 tons to 980.9 tons, reaching a 3 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of over 1% [1] Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 45 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 30 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 17 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 86 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 9 yuan/ton [1] Downstream Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.37% to 79.31% month - on - month, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate increased by 0.78% to 86.04% month - on - month, the steel mill profitability decreased by 0.44% to 37.66%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to increase by 2.07 tons to 229.5 tons, reaching a one - month high, a year - on - year increase of 5.13 tons or 2.29% [1] 3.2 Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory of coal mines continued to increase slightly, the port inventory increased by 551.96 tons, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased to 1071.68 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills decreased by 797.73 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2716.37 tons, reaching a nearly 9 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of over 15% [2] 3.3 News - The US White House announced a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from the 15th. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments announced the continuation of the individual income tax policy to support residents' housing exchange and purchase. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on January 15 with a term of 6 months [2] 3.4 Main Logic - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by the cost of upstream coking coal, the demand of downstream steel, and the orientation of macro - policies. The comprehensive coking coal inventory is significantly lower than in previous years, while the comprehensive coke inventory is at a moderately high level, with overall weak supply - demand. During the seasonal inventory - building period of downstream steel mills, the hot metal output continues to rise, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment boosts the short - term demand for coking coal and coke. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts by the domestic central bank and the Federal Reserve. The opening price of the main coke contract today is 1755, the closing price is 1745, the previous low is 1719, the previous high is 1817, and the position decreased by 1163 lots during the day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is oscillating weakly [1] Core View of the Report - Currently, soda ash production is increasing, demand is average, and the purchasing willingness is weak. With the cooling of the previous market sentiment, the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there may be a rebound due to interest - rate cut news, it is still advisable to adopt a high - selling strategy on rebounds considering the intensified industrial contradiction of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accumulating inventory. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened higher and closed lower, showing a weakening trend within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened wide, indicating a short - term weakening signal. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 210,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 30,978 lots. The highest price was 1228, the lowest was 1185, and the closing price was 1193, down 25 yuan/ton or 2.05% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market was stable with oscillations. Enterprise equipment was operating stably with few overhauls, and production remained at a high level. Downstream purchasing sentiment was average, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and mainly low - price replenishment [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 57 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43% from 84.39% last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.47%, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,575,000 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 0.66% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,300 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 2,300 tons or 0.15%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,431,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,390 tons or 10.06% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate was 99.70%, a month - on - month increase of 21.52 percentage points. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash demand was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the water - cooling and cold - repair of glass production lines [3][4] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to increased costs [4] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is constantly increasing. Recently, a glass production line started production, and the cold - repair rhythm slowed down, resulting in a slight recovery of the rigid demand for soda ash. Additionally, there is some short - term support under continuous losses. Overall, with increasing soda ash production, average demand, weak purchasing willingness, and the cooling of the previous market sentiment, the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Although it may rebound due to interest - rate cut news, considering the intensified industrial contradiction of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accumulating inventory, it is still advisable to adopt a high - selling strategy on rebounds. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term. The supply side shows a gradual reduction in new shipments, the demand side has a slight recovery, and although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually being transferred to downstream steel mills. With the futures contract in a back structure and positive basis, the downside space is limited [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures prices**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, closing at 813 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.97% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 253,000 lots, the open interest was 650,000 lots, and the settled funds were 11.672 billion yuan. The price is in a continuous narrow - range oscillation between 810 and 830, and there may be a further decline and adjustment in the short term [1]. - **Spot prices**: The mainstream varieties of port spot, Qingdao Port PB powder dropped 3 to 825 yuan/ton, Super Special powder dropped 3 to 697 yuan/ton, and the main swap was 107.00 (-1.25) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices fell again [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 853.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40.1 yuan/ton, and the basis changed little. The spread between iron ore contracts 2 - 5 was 19 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 19 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, with limited downside space but may be weakly volatile in the short term [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with a more obvious decline in Brazil. The arrivals increased month - on - month this period, and the previous high shipments are expected to support the high - level operation of arrivals. There are expectations of supply disturbances [2]. - **Demand**: The small - sample hot metal production decreased, but there is still an expectation of recovery. The profitability rate of steel mills weakened slightly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel mills was slow. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of hot metal before the festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories continued to accumulate significantly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to a certain extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of replenishment demand was still slow [2]. Macro - level Analysis - **Overseas**: A series of data released by the United States this week showed that the fundamentals continued to cool down. The overall overseas macro - driving logic has not changed significantly. New non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, while the unemployment rate decreased unexpectedly. The ADP employment in December improved but was still lower than expected, and job vacancies dropped to a 14 - month low. The ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States continued to weaken in December, while the ISM service PMI rebounded. On January 12, a criminal investigation was launched against Fed Chairman Powell, which increased investors' concerns about the weakening of the Fed's independence [4]. - **Domestic**: Since the beginning of the year, the overall domestic macro - environment may continue to improve moderately, with the focus on the investment side. Although the current fundamentals are still in a weak off - season, the incremental policies issued since the fourth quarter have entered a critical period of implementation. The incremental policy statements and the early - batch implementation since January are also expected to continue. The PMI data and price data in December have shown moderate improvement. Attention should be paid to the high - frequency physical work volume performance in January and the progress and sustainability of policy implementation [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate due to a supply - surplus situation, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and uncertainties in global economic data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. The next meeting is scheduled for February 1 [1] - During the off - peak season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected, and gasoline inventories have also risen significantly, leading to an overall increase in oil product inventories. US crude oil production has slightly decreased but remains near the historical high [1][3] - Trump has issued multiple warnings and policies, including threatening to increase tariffs on Indian products if India does not limit Russian oil purchases, and imposing a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. The US has not ruled out military action against Iran, and the geopolitical risk in Iran remains [1] - The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US is low, and the market is still worried about crude oil demand due to the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index [1] - The EIA's January monthly report has raised the degree of crude oil supply surplus in 2026 [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2603 fell 0.69% to 446.6 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 443.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 460.5 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2948 to 39575 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The IEA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars/barrel to 52.21 dollars/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - EIA data on January 14 showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 9 increased by 3.391 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.702 million barrels), 1.88% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (expected to increase by 3.565 million barrels), and refined oil inventories decreased by 29,000 barrels (expected to increase by 512,000 barrels). Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 745,000 barrels [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's October crude oil production was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day. Its November 2025 production decreased by 1000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly due to production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ November crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of January 9 decreased by 58,000 barrels per day to 13.753 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [3] US Crude Oil Product Supply - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has increased to 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.67% increase compared to the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel production have both increased month - on - month, driving a 9.27% month - on - month increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the far - month contracts remain weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report and may decline further if South American harvest progresses well. For oils, after the phased bearish factors are exhausted, it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [1][2] Group 1: Soybean Meal - On January 14, 2026, US private exporters reported selling 334,000 tons of US soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery. Since October 30, USDA has confirmed 5.35 million tons of soybean sales to China. China's soybean imports in December 2025 were 8.044 million tons, and 8.107 million tons in November. The total import in 2025 was 111.833 million tons. Private exporters also reported selling 136,000 tons of corn to South Korea for 2025/26 delivery [1] - The market is unclear about the later reserve - release schedule. Recent imported soybean reserve releases were all sold at a premium, indicating a supply gap and strong short - term demand. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and far - month contracts may decline further if South American harvest progresses well [1] Group 2: Oils - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15, 2026 were 727,440 tons, an 18.64% increase compared to the same period last month. Malaysia set the reference price of crude palm oil for February 2026 at 3,846.84 ringgit per ton, with an export tariff rate of 9.0% [2] - On January 15, 2026, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand. A dialogue between Chinese and Canadian leaders is expected to discuss Canadian rapeseed imports [2] - Uncertainty about Indonesia's B50 policy led to a slight decline in palm oil. Rapeseed oil fell significantly as the market awaited the China - Canada leaders' meeting. Palm oil also dropped but was supported by the improving export situation in Malaysia. It is recommended to buy on dips after the phased bearish factors are exhausted [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "oscillating and moderately strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybeans are expected to continue an oscillating and moderately strong trend; for corn, attention should be paid to opportunities to buy on dips; for eggs, try to buy at relatively low points and focus on later capacity reduction; for live pigs, it is recommended to mainly buy on dips for far - month contracts [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Soybeans - Northeast产区soybean spot prices are at a high level, with a tight supply of high - protein soybeans. The price of 39% protein content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty. The 30,000 - ton domestic soybean two - way bidding transaction organized by Sinograin on Tuesday was fully completed. Market demand still has some support, but the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans on the futures market is over 800 yuan per ton, at a historically high level. If the price of domestic soybeans rises further, the demand for domestic soybeans for food or oil - pressing will be affected [1] Corn - As the spot price continues to rise, some trading entities have begun to accelerate grain sales. The number of trucks arriving at Jinzhou Port this morning reached 817, a month - on - month increase of 331. Due to factors such as logistics and transportation, the arrival of grain sources at northern ports will continue to increase. In Shandong, although the number of trucks arriving in the morning is less than 300, considering the low willingness of grass - roots farmers to sell grain and the lack of motivation for terminal enterprises to raise prices, the Huanghuaihai market centered on Shandong will gradually enter the peak grain - selling period [1] Eggs - Since July 2025, the sample chicken - chick replenishment volume (accounting for 50% of the actual replenishment) has been declining year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the second half of the year has been increasing month by month. The year - on - year declines in monthly chicken - chick sales from August to December were 9.4%, 14.1%, 12.7%, 13.4%, and 13.9% respectively. It is estimated that from January to May 2026, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain at a low level. The low replenishment in the second half of 2025 will significantly reduce the pressure of newly - opened laying hens in the first half of 2026. The short - term upward space is suppressed by the loose spot market, but in the long - term, eggs are gradually getting out of the low - price situation [2] Live Pigs - In 2025, the actual total hog slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises showed a steady increase, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared with 131.6 million heads in 2024. The actual slaughter volume showed significant differences before and after festivals and seasonal characteristics. The current hog supply side is in the stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. The appropriate reduction of the breeding sow inventory lays the foundation for medium - and long - term supply - demand balance. The market will still face short - term structural pressure, but in 2026, the hog supply pattern is expected to gradually re - balance. The significant acceleration of hog capacity reduction further confirms the upward price expectation for far - month contracts [3][4]