1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the overnight night - session market trends of domestic and international futures, important macro - economic news, and the situation of various financial markets. It also gives the schedule of significant events for the day. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Session Market Trends - Domestic futures主力合约涨跌互现，沥青、菜油、棕榈油涨近1%，对二甲苯（PX）、PTA跌超1%，瓶片、乙二醇、短纤、菜粕跌近1% [2] - International precious metal futures普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.41%报3232.20美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨0.44%报32.50美元/盎司 [3] - International oil prices走强，美油主力合约收涨0.29%，报62.15美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨0.17%，报65.52美元/桶 [4] - London basic metals收盘涨跌不一，LME期锡涨0.98%报32960.00美元/吨，LME期铜涨0.81%报9516.00美元/吨 [5] - International agricultural product futures多数上涨，美大豆涨0.12%，美玉米涨0.79%，美豆油涨1.12%，美豆粕跌0.24%，美小麦涨0.86% [6] Important News Macro - economic News - In April 2025, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in each tier of cities were flat or slightly decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. In first - tier cities, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [9] - The real estate market is moving towards stabilizing, but it is still in the adjustment and transformation process, and there is still pressure to release rigid and improved demand [9] - In April, affected by external shocks, macro - policies worked together, and the main economic indicators grew steadily and rapidly, but the foundation for the continuous recovery of the national economy needs to be further consolidated [9] - Fed's Bostic still worries about tariff - induced inflation but expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut this year [12] - Starting from May 20, many large state - owned banks and some joint - stock banks will cut the RMB deposit listing rates [12] - The US Treasury is not expected to announce any trade agreements at the G7 finance ministers' meeting this week [13] - Russia is ready to cooperate on the peace negotiation memorandum with Ukraine, and there are intentions for face - to - face meetings between Russian and US leaders [13] - Iran's deputy foreign minister warns that nuclear negotiations will fail if the US insists on Iran stopping uranium enrichment [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - Goldman Sachs is cautious about oil price prospects, maintaining the forecast of Brent/US crude oil prices at $60/$56 for the rest of 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026 [16] - As of May 19, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China decreased by 2.65 tons, and the benzene - ethylene port sample inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 0.46 tons, a decrease of 8.11% [16] - On May 19, the domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel were lowered by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per ton respectively [19] - The EU will propose to the G7 finance ministers to lower the price cap of Russian seaborne oil to $50 per barrel [20] Metal Futures - On May 19, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased compared with May 12 and May 15, with different changes in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [22] - As of May 19, the SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased compared with May 12 and May 15 [23] - From May 12 - 18, the shipment of Australian lithium concentrate to China decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month [23] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative shipment of copper ore and copper concentrate decreased compared with May last year, while that of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate increased significantly [23] Black - series Futures - From May 12 - 18, the global iron ore shipment increased by 3.188 million tons month - on - month, with the shipment from Australia and Brazil increasing by 2.836 million tons [27] - From May 12 - 18, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 2.896 million tons month - on - month [27] - In April 2025, the coal export from Gladstone Port in Australia decreased by 19.38% month - on - month and 1.76% year - on - year [28] - From January to April, the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [28] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative shipment of iron ore decreased compared with May last year, but the daily shipment volume increased by 2.59% [28] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to the level of a 9.5% export tariff [30] - As of May 15, the soybean harvest rate in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, reached 98%, and the expected output in the 2024/25 season decreased by 27.4% compared with the previous season [32] - In April, China's palm oil import increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the import of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 18.4% year - on - year [32] - As of May 16, the domestic soybean crushing volume of major oil mills increased, and it is expected to continue to rise to 2.25 million tons this week [33] - As of May 15, the US soybean export inspection volume decreased compared with the previous week [34] - From May 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output all increased [35] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative shipment of soybeans decreased compared with May last year, but the daily shipment volume increased by 11.34% [35] - As of May 17, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil in the 2024/25 season reached 98.9% [37] - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean output is estimated at 169.7 million tons, with a slight downward adjustment of the export volume estimate [37] - As of May 18, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, higher than expected, and the corn planting rate was 78%, lower than expected [37] Financial Markets Commodities - International precious metal futures rose due to the increase in global market risk - aversion sentiment after Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating [39] - International oil prices strengthened due to the enhanced expectation of global economic recovery and the gradual increase in demand [39] - London basic metals had a mixed performance, with the market trend being differentiated under multiple factors [39] - Zhongcai Futures' chairman has become China's largest copper bull, accumulating nearly $1 billion in bets [41] Bonds - In the domestic bond market, treasury bond futures rose, and most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [42] - The US Treasury will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations on May 20 [42] - In April, overseas institutional investors net - bought RMB 301.5 billion of domestic bonds, and as of the end of April, overseas institutions held RMB 4.44 trillion of inter - bank market bonds [42] - US Treasury yields declined across the board [42] - The main European bond markets stabilized, with the 10 - year UK Treasury yield rising slightly, and those of Germany, France, Italy, and Portugal remaining basically flat [43] Foreign Exchange - In April, the domestic foreign exchange supply and demand were basically balanced, and cross - border funds showed a net inflow, with foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continuing to improve [44] - On Monday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, and the central parity rate was raised [47] - Hedge funds and long - term investors are re - establishing positions betting on the appreciation of the yen [47] - The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose [47] Upcoming Events - There are a series of important events on May 20, including central bank meetings, press conferences, and corporate events such as the listing of CATL's H - shares and the release of corporate financial reports [50]

热点资讯 早盘速递 2025/5/19 1、上市公司重大资产重组新规落地。证监会正式公布实施修订后的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》，在简化审核程序、创 新交易工具、提升监管包容度等方面作出优化。修订后的重组办法创多个"首次" ：首次建立简易审核程序；首次调整发行股份 购买资产的监管要求；首次建立分期支付机制；首次引入私募基金"反向挂钩"安排，鼓励私募基金参与上市公司并购重组。 2、俄罗斯和乌克兰两国代表团16日在土耳其举行3年来的首次直接谈判。乌克兰方面在谈判结束后表示，谈判毫无成果。俄方则 表示，对谈判结果总体满意，愿意继续同乌方进行接触。据乌克兰消息人士称，作为停火条件，俄罗斯代表团要求乌军从顿涅茨 克、卢甘斯克、赫尔松和扎波罗热地区撤军。 重点关注 尿素、碳酸锂、沥青、螺纹钢、豆粕 夜盘表现 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 1.50% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.81% 贵金属, 29.62% 油脂油料, 11.81% ...

制作日期： 2025/05/19 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周五夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。氧化铝涨超 6%，盘中一度触及 涨停；纸浆涨超 1%，烧碱、沥青涨近 1%；跌幅方面，焦炭、20 号胶、橡胶、纯 碱、焦煤跌超 1%。 2.国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.66%报 3205.30 美元/盎司， 本周累计下跌 3.72%。COMEX 白银期货跌 0.76%报 32.43 美元/盎司，本周累计下 跌 1.37%。 3. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 1.28%，报 61.93 美元/桶，周涨 1.49%； 布伦特原油主力合约涨 1.24%，报 65.33 美元/桶，周涨 2.22%。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数下跌，LME 期铅涨 0.07%报 2006.00 美元/吨，本周累 计上涨 1.24%；LME 期铜跌 1.67%报 9440.00 美元/吨，本周累计下跌 0.06%。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 上海航运交易所数据显示，截至 5 月 16 日，上海 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including asphalt, crude oil, copper, etc., and provides corresponding market trend forecasts and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and trade policies [3][5][10] - For example, it is expected that asphalt will fluctuate at a high level and suggests going long on the 09 - 12 spread; crude oil has downward pressure; the copper market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [3][5][10] Summary by Commodity Asphalt - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate rose 5.6 percentage points to 34.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The expected output in May is 231.8 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [3] - Demand: The operating rates of most downstream industries rose, but the actual demand still needs to recover due to factors such as rainfall and capital constraints [3] - Market trend: With both supply and demand increasing, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [3] Crude Oil - Price movement: After falling to near the previous low on May 6, the price rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment and US sanctions on entities engaged in Iranian oil trade [4] - Supply: OPEC+ started to gradually relax the production cut plan in April, increasing the daily supply by 411,000 barrels in May. Eight countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. There is a large supply pressure in the future [5] - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. It is currently the off - season for global crude oil consumption [5] Copper - Supply: The supply is tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high smelter costs. Although copper production has increased, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, but there is resistance to high prices. The demand in May may be slightly weaker than that in April [10] - Market trend: The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term with limited up and down space, and bullish in the long - term [10] Other Commodities - **PP**: It is expected to rebound slightly as the market sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, although there are supply and demand challenges such as restricted exports and slow downstream recovery [14] - **Plastic**: It is expected to rebound slightly. The start - up rate has increased, but downstream demand has not fully recovered [15][16] - **PVC**: It may continue to rebound. The start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the market has been boosted by improved macro - sentiment [17] - **Grease**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to consider buying on dips after a fall [18][19] - **Soybean Meal**: The space for further weakening is limited. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the demand is good [20] - **Rebar**: The price may continue to fall due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and weak cost support [21][22] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price may continue to be under pressure if demand remains weak and supply pressure increases [23] - **Urea**: The short - term trend is still strong, but the up and down space is limited under the macro - price - stabilizing policy, and the export policy needs to be clarified [24][25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The Fed's interest - rate cut sentiment is rising but still in a tug - of - war. Under the game between bulls and bears, the market is oscillating, with limited upside and downside space. It may face short - term pressure, but the medium - to - long - term trend is bullish [1]. - The supply side remains tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high costs for smelters. Although copper production has increased against the trend, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious. The demand side shows resilience, but there may be a marginal weakening in May compared to April [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and moved lower today, under pressure. The US April PPI unexpectedly dropped by 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years. The supply side is tight, and the smelter cost is high. The downstream is resistant to high prices. The demand in May may be marginally weaker than in April. The market is in a multi - empty game and is likely to be in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, moved low, and closed down. The closing price was 78140. The number of long orders of the top twenty decreased by 3014 to 124860 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 5012 to 112073 hands. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 425 yuan/ton, and in South China was 400 yuan/ton. On May 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9523 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 14.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 63,200 tons, an increase of 2700 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,300 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 184,700 tons, a slight decrease of 925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 168,600 short tons, an increase of 1928 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The urea market is gradually returning to the fundamentals, with market sentiment being mostly wait - and - see. The futures price of urea opened low and closed lower, and the market is waiting for the clarification of export policies. The supply is relatively stable with a slight contraction in weekly output, and the demand shows an increase in the short - term. The market will return to the supply - demand logic, and the short - term trend of the futures is still strong, but the upside and downside space is limited under the macro price - stabilizing policy [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and closed lower, with upstream factory quotes stable. The market is waiting for export policy changes. Supply has a slight weekly contraction, and daily output fluctuates around 200,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the impact of new production capacity on supply. After the export is opened, local supply liquidity may be affected. On the demand side, downstream is cautious about agricultural fertilizer preparation, and the demand for compound fertilizer factories is in the tail - end stage. Inventory has been significantly reduced, and the short - term futures trend is strong, but the price range is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1885 yuan/ton, closed lower, with a closing price of 1885 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%, and a position of 239,683 lots (- 5411 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 1145 lots, and short positions increased by 2644 lots. Some futures companies' net long and net short positions changed. On May 16, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7355, a net increase of 3 compared to the previous trading day [2]. Spot - Upstream factory quotes are stable, and the market is waiting for export policy changes. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are in the range of 1830 - 1850 yuan/ton, and those in Shanxi have little change [4]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes are stable, and the futures closing price is up. Based on Shandong, the basis is flat compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract is 43 yuan/ton (+ 15 yuan/ton) [7]. Supply Data - On May 16, 2025, the national daily urea output was 201,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8].

Key Points of the Report 1. Policy and International News - China's State Council held a meeting on strengthening the domestic economic cycle, emphasizing using the stability and long - term growth of the domestic cycle to counter the uncertainties of the international cycle for high - quality development [2] - China's top - level design for urban renewal was introduced, with eight major tasks including renovating old urban areas and strengthening infrastructure [2] - US President Trump said Iran agreed to some conditions of the nuclear agreement, and Iran's senior advisor stated Iran's willingness to forgo nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief [2] 2. Energy and Commodity Market Information - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a slowdown in global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025, and lowered its forecast for US shale oil production due to falling prices. However, it raised the annual average demand growth forecast by 20,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - As of the week ending May 15, the production and apparent demand of rebar increased, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory declined for the tenth consecutive week. Rebar production was 2.2653 million tons, up 1.34% from the previous week, and apparent demand was 2.6029 million tons, up 21.69% [3] 3. Commodity Market Performance - The night - trading performance of key commodities such as urea, crude oil, soybean oil, hot - rolled coil, and Shanghai copper was mentioned [4] - Different commodity sectors showed various performances, with the precious metals sector having a 29.55% increase, the coal - coking and steel - mining sector up 13.50%, and the chemical sector rising 13.17% [7] 4. Asset Performance - Different stock indices had different daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.68%, a monthly increase of 3.10%, and an annual increase of 0.87% [9] - Other assets like bonds, commodities, and the US dollar also had their respective performance. For instance, 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.02%, a monthly decline of 0.41%, and an annual decline of 0.34% [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains an "Overweight" rating on the Chinese stock market [33] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overnight night - market showed mixed trends in various commodities, with precious metals rising, oil prices falling, and other metals and agricultural products having different performances. In the macro - economic aspect, there are changes in trade, inflation, and economic policies. The financial market also has fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, and different industries have their own development situations [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.74% at $3243.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.07% at $32.79 per ounce [2] - International oil prices dropped significantly, with the US oil main contract down 2.31% at $61.69 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract down 2.22% at $64.62 per barrel [3] - London base metals closed mixed, with LME lead up 0.60% at $2004.50 per ton and LME zinc down 1.29% at $2726.00 per ton [4] - Domestic futures contracts were mostly in the red, with some rising and some falling [4] - CBOT agricultural product futures contracts closed mixed, with soybean futures down 2.27%, corn futures up 62%, and wheat futures up 1.43% [4] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - After the US and China reduced tariffs, container shipping bookings from China to the US soared nearly 300% [6] - China urges the US to stop 232 tariff measures [6] - Li Qiang emphasizes strengthening the domestic cycle [6] - The US April PPI annual rate dropped to 2.4%, and the monthly rate was - 0.5% [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - The supply of the float glass industry shrank, with inventory rising [9] - Iran may reach an agreement with the US to lift sanctions [11] - China's styrene factory output and capacity utilization decreased [11] - Singapore's fuel oil and light distillate inventories decreased, while middle distillate inventories increased [11] - The IEA expects global oil supply to exceed demand in 2025 [11] - A Shandong alumina plant adjusted the purchase price of liquid caustic soda [12] - Iran says it won't ship high - enriched uranium abroad until sanctions are lifted [13] Metal Futures - An Anhui galvanizing plant will start a new production line [15] - China's alumina operating rate decreased [17] - China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot production and capacity utilization declined in April [17] Black - Series Futures - Rebar production, apparent demand increased, and inventories decreased [19] - Tangshan's steel billet inventory decreased [19] Agricultural Product Futures - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory decreased in April [21] - Australia's 2025/2026 rapeseed production is expected to be 620 million tons [21] - Brazil's Mato Grosso state had a record soybean yield [23] - China's palm oil imports are expected to increase, and prices may weaken [23] - The expected biodiesel blending volume is lower than before [24] - Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to increase [24] - Brazil's port sugar - waiting ships and sugar volume increased [24] - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in May [24] - China's industrial feed production increased in April [25] - More US soybean and corn planting areas are affected by drought [27] - US soybean and corn export net sales changed [27] - Brazil's soybean and corn production are expected to increase [27] - Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to increase [28] - US soybean oil inventory and soybean crushing volume changed in April [28] Financial Market Finance - The CSRC revised the rules for the supervision of raised funds of listed companies [30] - The CSRC will strengthen the crackdown on illegal activities in the stock market [32] - A - shares oscillated weakly, and the Hong Kong stock market declined [32] - Goldman Sachs raised the target points of the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index [33] - Insurance funds continued to increase their holdings of bank stocks [33] - Alibaba's Q4 revenue and profit increased [33] - Hengrui Medicine launched an H - share public offering [35] - Dongfang Zhongke provides testing services for Xiaomi's chip - related company [35] - NetEase's Q1 revenue and profit increased [35] Industry - Many bank wealth management products' performance benchmarks were lowered [36] - Many FOF products issued liquidation warnings [36] - China's real estate industry is still in adjustment [36] - The China Real Estate Association will hold a commercial real estate development conference [36] - There is a large talent gap in the domestic Hongmeng ecosystem [38] - The Shanghai Tax Bureau is investigating the tax evasion allegation against Liu Xiaoqing [38] - Spring Airlines will launch a "pet in the cabin" service [39] Overseas - The US and Iran are negotiating on the nuclear issue [40] - There are internal differences in the Trump administration on AI trade [40] - Trump hopes Apple to increase production in the US [40] - US economic activity slowed, and inflation cooled [40] - US initial jobless claims were stable [42] - The EU is revising the trade agreement proposal with the US [42] - The eurozone's Q1 economic growth was revised down [42] - The UK's Q1 economic growth was faster than expected [42] - Hamas is negotiating with the US to end the Gaza conflict [43] - The UAE will invest $1.4 trillion in the US in the next 10 years [44] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, and European stocks rose slightly [45][46] - Berkshire Hathaway adjusted its holdings [46] - Meta postponed the release of its AI model [47] - Walmart's Q1 sales increased, but it warned of price increases [47] - Deere lowered its annual profit forecast [47] - Merck lowered its annual performance guidance [48] - Siemens' Q2 revenue and profit increased [49] - Allianz's Q1 operating profit reached a record high [50] - Thyssenkrupp's Q2 orders and sales declined [51] Commodities - International precious metal futures rose [52] - International oil prices dropped [52] - London base metals closed mixed [52] - The IEA expects global oil demand growth to slow [53] Bonds - China's bond futures mostly rose, and US and European bond yields declined [55] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index declined [56][58] - The ruble reached its highest level against the US dollar since 2023 [57] Upcoming Events - There are multiple central bank officials' speeches, company events, and new stock listings [62]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 15 日 热点品种 PVC： 上游电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC 开工率环比增加 1.01 个百分点至 80.34%， PVC 开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。五一节后，PVC 下游开工有 所回升，但同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口，印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行，中国台湾台塑 5 月份报价稳定，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交付较好。上周社会库存略有 下降，只是目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-3 月份，房地产数据略有 改善，只是同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大。五一假期过后， 30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水平，关 注房地产利好政策能否提振商品房销售。春检过半，据统计春检规模不及去年同 期，近期开工率持续反弹，需求未实质性改善之前 PVC 压力较大。只是近期 PVC 期价增仓持续下跌后，在 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is in a state of oscillation under the game between long and short positions. In the short - term, the market is waiting for a driving force, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is in a bullish pattern. Attention should be paid to the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in the future [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and closed lower today. The Sino - US talks have boosted market risk appetite, and the inflation level in the US is lower than expected, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, which supports the upward movement of copper prices [1] - On the supply side, the pattern of tight supply remains. The mine end is expected to be tight, and the smelter's cost is high. Although the copper output has increased against the trend, the cost pressure is obvious. The large increase in US copper inventory has led to tight supply in other regions, and the domestic exchange's explicit inventory has been continuously depleted, but the depletion rate has narrowed [1] - On the demand side, downstream customers are resistant to high prices. The operating rate of cable enterprises in April reached 86.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. Orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The downstream demand is still resilient, but the demand in May may weaken marginally compared with April [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: It opened high, moved low, and fluctuated with a decline, closing at 77870. The number of long orders of the top 20 decreased by 2421 to 127955 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 1562 to 117162 hands [3] - Spot: The spot premium in East China today was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 25 yuan/ton. On May 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9621 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 28.5 US dollars/ton [3] Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 60,500 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 85,800 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 184,650 tons, a slight decrease of 925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 167,000 short tons, an increase of 1,928 short tons from the previous period [8]