Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of oil and meal is weak. The soybean meal market is under pressure, and the oil market, including vegetable oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, is also in a weak state with no short - term upward driving factors [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - In the first week of December, Chicago soybean futures showed a weekly bearish reversal pattern and further declined last week, indicating that soybean futures prices may have peaked. The price pressure is mainly due to technical selling and the market has digested the positive news of China's soybean purchase agreement. The focus is on the strong record - high soybean production in South America [1] - The state reserve has twice released over 500,000 tons of imported soybeans within a week, accelerating the release speed, which will significantly supplement the soybean supply gap in February and March, causing the near - month contracts to weaken [1] - Frequent near - month releases may lead to a slight decline in spot and near - month contracts, while the far - month contracts are expected to remain in a volatile trend under the expectation of a loose supply [1] Vegetable Oil - The US Environmental Protection Agency announced that the final decision on 2026 biofuel blending is expected to be completed in the first quarter of next year. The planting area of winter rapeseed in France is expected to increase by 6.4% to 1.34 million hectares in 2026 [2] - Argentina's general labor union will launch a large - scale strike and demonstration on December 18th, and the oilseed industry union will support the national strike, with oilseed processing plants and cotton ginning plants workers on strike for one day [2] - Due to the strong foreign production increase expectation and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the premium of rapeseed oil has significantly retracted. After continuous decline, attention should be paid to rapeseed purchases in the next quarter and the possibility of restarting purchases of Canadian rapeseed. In the short term, it is expected to remain in a weak trend [2] Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil market is in a period of loose supply and demand with no obvious driving force. The delay of the US biofuel policy to the first quarter of next year means that the stocking of US biofuel merchants will be postponed again. Before the policy is implemented, the buying power of US soybean oil will remain weak. The strike in Argentina may have a short - term impact but cannot change the overall loose supply. Domestic soybean oil is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [2] Palm Oil - The export report shows that the first half - month is still weak, and the production in the first half - month has not decreased significantly compared with last month. Palm oil is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand and is expected to remain weak in the short term [3] - Overall, the oil market is in a weak trend. After the negative factors of palm oil and rapeseed oil are gradually realized, the market may enter a volatile state again. After the delay of the US biofuel policy implementation, the weak and volatile period of the oil market may be longer, and there are no short - term upward driving factors [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：港口窄幅去库、进口压力仍存 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 17 日 【基本面分析】 库存方面：截至 2025 年 12 月 17 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 121.88 万吨， 较上一期数据减少 1.56 万吨。其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 3.10 万吨；华南 地区累库，库存增加 1.54 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存窄幅去库，周期内显性外轮 卸货计入 21.09 万吨，江内有 10.66 万吨在靠船货尚未计入库存。周内华东主流 社会库提货延续良好，浙江有烯烃工厂停车检修继续影响消费。本周华南港口库 存窄幅累库。广东地区周内进口及内贸船只继续补充，主流库区提货量尚可，库 存小幅累库。福建地区卸货速度依旧缓慢，下游刚需消耗，在进口及内贸补充下 库存略有累库。 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于国家统计局官网、中国货 币网、隆众数据、Wind、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 【宏观面分析】 中央财办有关负责同志：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，明年要把握 消费的结构性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。 特朗普全面封 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt supply is decreasing, with the production expected to decline in December, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is rising but still near the lowest level in recent years. The demand is weakening as road construction in the north is ending due to cold weather, and the increase in the south is limited. The crude oil price is weakly oscillating, and concerns about Venezuelan heavy crude exports may affect asphalt production. The market is cautious, and it is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate [1]. Content Summary by Related Parts Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a multi - year low. In December, the expected domestic asphalt production is 215.8 million tons, a 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year decrease. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 9.69% week - on - week to 253,400 tons. The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Demand: Last week, most of the downstream asphalt industries' operating rates declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 27% due to capital and weather constraints. With the north's cold weather, road construction is ending, and the overall demand is average [1]. - Crude Oil: Iraqi oil fields are resuming production, and the US is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, sanctions on Venezuela may affect asphalt production, and the discount of Venezuelan diluted asphalt has narrowed [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract rose 3.58% to 3,012 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,855 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,014 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,592 to 235,465 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract dropped to - 102 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, 0.9 percentage points lower than last year's same period, at a multi - year low [4]. - Demand - related Investment: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to November, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [4]. - Downstream Operating Rate: As of the week of December 12, most of the downstream asphalt industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 2 percentage points to 27% due to capital and weather constraints [4]. - Social Financing: From January to November, the social financing stock increased by 8.5% year - on - year, with the growth rate remaining the same as that from January to October [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 12, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market is in a situation where supply exceeds demand, with significant port inventory pressure due to increased imports from South Korea. Although the subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down, the market sentiment remains weak, and there is a possibility of further decline [1][4][5] - The styrene market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. With low operating rates and inventory reduction, downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. Considering the seasonal inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, styrene is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis Pure Benzene - Downstream production profits: The production profit of caprolactam is -330 yuan/ton (+0), that of phenol - ketone is -952 yuan/ton (+0), that of aniline is 611 yuan/ton (-237), and that of adipic acid is -1075 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Downstream operating rates: The operating rate of caprolactam is 74.57% (-4.58%), that of phenol is 79.50% (-2.50%), that of aniline is 75.94% (-1.29%), and that of adipic acid is 59.20% (-0.80%) [1] - Market situation: Due to tariff issues, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have increased, resulting in concentrated arrivals of imports and significant port inventory pressure. However, the subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down, presenting a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1] Styrene - Production and utilization rate: From December 5th to 11th, China's total styrene factory output was 33.88 tons, a decrease of -1.05% from the previous period, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 68.11%, a decrease of -0.74% month - on - month [2] - Downstream consumption: The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene was 27.24 tons, a decrease of -0.73% month - on - month [2] - Inventory situation: The styrene factory inventory was 17.60 tons, a decrease of -0.11% from last week. As of December 8th, the styrene inventory at East China ports was 14.68 tons, a decrease of -8.59% from last week, and the inventory at South China ports was 2.3 tons, an increase of +142.11% from last week [2] - Profit situation: As of December 10th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was -140 yuan/ton, and as of December 12th, the integrated profit of styrene was 425.46 yuan/ton [2] - Market outlook: There were many styrene overhauls in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory decreased. However, according to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - The central financial office stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year, and efforts should be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides by grasping the structural changes in consumption [3] - Trump has completely blocked the sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and demanded the return of oil and other assets to the United States [3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene continued to decline during the day. Affected by the inventory pressure from concentrated imports, it remained in a state of strong supply and weak demand, with weak market sentiment. The continuous decline in crude oil also had a certain drag on pure benzene, and it is still treated as a weak pattern, with the possibility of further decline [4][5] - Styrene maintained inventory reduction at a low operating rate, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. Considering the seasonal inventory accumulation period in the first quarter of next year, styrene is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [5]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/17 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1.美油主力合约收跌 2.89%，报 55.18 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌 2.79%， 报 58.87 美元/桶。 2.国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX黄金期货跌0.07%报4332.2美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.32%报 6 ...

早盘速递 2025/12/17 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (800,000) (700,000) (600,000) (500,000) (400,000) (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-12-16 2025-12-15 2025-12-12 2025-12-11 2025-12-10 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 上证指数 | 日涨跌幅% -1.11 | 月内涨跌幅% -1.64 | 年内涨跌幅（%） 14.11 | 近一年走势 | | | 上证50 沪深300 | -1.08 -1.20 | -0.50 -0.64 | 10.06 14.30 | | | | 中证500 | -1.58 | -0.43 | 22. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating with an upward bias" for the hot-rolled coil industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of hot-rolled coils is expected to continue to decline, providing support, and the stabilization of furnace materials has increased cost support. The market has digested the off-season demand and export license management news. With positive macro expectations, winter storage demand is expected to start, but attention should be paid to whether the inventory pressure can be relieved. The price of hot-rolled coils is expected to continue to oscillate with an upward bias [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures oscillated with an upward bias during the day, closing at 3254 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.65%. It has shown a stable recovery trend in the past two trading days [1] - The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3270 yuan/ton [2] - The basis between futures and spot was 24 yuan, close to flat water [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 11, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 5.6 tons week-on-week to 308.71 tons, and decreased by 11.41 tons year-on-year. Recent production has been continuously declining, and steel mills may have the expectation of switching production to rebar, which may marginally reduce the supply of hot-rolled coils [4] - **Demand**: The weekly apparent consumption decreased by 2.89 tons week-on-week to 311.97 tons, and decreased by 5.02 tons year-on-year. Domestic manufacturing demand is weak, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and a weak willingness to stock up actively. Export demand is good, sharing the domestic supply pressure and providing support [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 3.26 tons week-on-week to 397.09 tons (social inventory decreased by 7.37 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 4.11 tons). The total inventory is at a four-year high, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to the further inventory reduction speed [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: The expectation of supply reduction has increased, winter storage demand has started, there is policy support (such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" and infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal have increased cost support [5] - **Bearish factors**: The demand has weakened seasonally, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the rebar market is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1][6] Core Viewpoint - The current rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the decline in production, the rise in furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide downside support. After the market has digested the off - season demand and the news of steel export licenses, it is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation and run oscillating with a bullish bias in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start node of winter storage demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main rebar contract oscillated and rose during the day, closing at 3,081 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The trading volume was 778,715 lots, showing a stabilizing and rebounding trend in the past two trading days [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 199 yuan/ton to the spot price, which may support the futures price to some extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending December 11, rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week - on - week to 1.7878 million tons, and decreased by 392,900 tons year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week - on - week and 1.92% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, down 0.43% from the previous week, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons. The decline in production was mainly due to blast furnace maintenance and loss - induced production cuts [2] - Demand side: Demand entered the traditional off - season. As of the week ending December 11, the apparent consumption decreased by 138,900 tons week - on - week to 2.0309 million tons, and decreased by 345,700 tons year - on - year. The spot market transactions were mainly for rigid procurement, and the speculative demand was low [2] - Inventory side: As of the week ending December 11, the total inventory decreased by 243,100 tons week - on - week to 4.795 million tons, with the social inventory decreasing by 224,300 tons and the steel mill inventory slightly decreasing by 18,800 tons. The destocking of social inventory showed the current demand resilience, and the overall inventory pressure was still controllable [2] Macroeconomic aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference will flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It will focus on stabilizing the real estate market, and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December was in line with expectations. The macroeconomic outlook is moderately positive [3] Cost aspect - The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke stabilized and rebounded, enhancing the cost support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Continuous contraction of supply, continued inventory destocking, policy expectations, large discount on the futures market providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and the rebound of coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [5] - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to tariff - related increased imports from South Korea and port inventory pressure, and the subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down. The styrene market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory depletion in the fourth - quarter but a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year [1][2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis Pure Benzene - Downstream production profits: Caprolactam production profit is - 330 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 611 yuan/ton (- 237), and adipic acid production profit is - 1075 yuan/ton (+0). - Downstream operating rates: Caprolactam operating rate is 74.57% (- 4.58%), phenol operating rate is 79.50% (- 2.50%), aniline operating rate is 75.94% (- 1.29%), and adipic acid operating rate is 59.20% (- 0.80%). - Market situation: Due to tariff issues, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have increased, with concentrated arrivals of imports and obvious port inventory pressure, presenting a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1] Styrene - Production and utilization rate: From December 5th to 11th, China's styrene factory's overall output was 33.88 tons, a decrease of 1.05% from the previous period; the factory's capacity utilization rate was 68.11%, a decrease of 0.74% month - on - month. - Downstream consumption: The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS in styrene downstream was 27.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73% month - on - month. - Inventory: Styrene factory inventory was 17.60 tons, a decrease of 0.11% from last week. As of December 8th, the styrene inventory in East China ports was 14.68 tons, a decrease of 8.59% from last week; the inventory in South China ports was 2.3 tons, an increase of 142.11% from last week. - Profit: As of December 10th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 140 yuan/ton. As of December 12th, the integrated profit of styrene was 425.46 yuan/ton. - Market situation: There were many overhauls in the fourth quarter, with port inventory depletion, but there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - Key events: China's industrial added value above designated size in November increased by 4.8% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 5% and a previous value of 4.90%. China's total retail sales of consumer goods in November increased by 1.3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.8% and a previous value of 2.90%. - Exchange rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 7.0500, the first time since October 9, 2024. The offshore RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 7.046 on December 15th, a new high since early October 2024. - Consumption: In November, the year - on - year increase in consumer prices further expanded, and positive changes continued to appear. The next stage should focus on promoting consumption [3][4] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene: Affected by inventory pressure from concentrated imports, it shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with weak market sentiment. It is in a weak pattern, and inventory data needs continuous attention. - Styrene: With low operating rates and inventory depletion, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - After the impact of macro - events fades, the trading logic of iron ore will return to fundamentals. With weak rigid demand, inventory accumulation, and a steady recovery in shipments, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the near term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply Side - The total global iron ore shipments in this period were 35.925 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24 million tons. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all increased week - on - week. From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 29.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.589 million tons. The arrivals continued to rise, and the impact of previous hurricanes on foreign ore shipments gradually diminished. With the motivation for year - end shipment volume surges, overall shipments will gradually recover steadily [1] Demand Side - This week, the daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons (- 0.031 million tons); the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.63% (- 1.92%); the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.92% (- 1.16%); the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93% (- 0.43%). Pig iron output continued to decline seasonally. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined more than seasonally. Blast furnaces faced both environmental protection and annual maintenance recently. The daily consumption and inventory of sintered powder ore both declined. There is still an expectation of a continuous decline in pig iron output, and steel mills' demand for raw material replenishment remains at a slow pace [1] Inventory Side - Port inventory continued to increase. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 161.1147 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2036 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3417 million tons, a decrease of 0.0006 million tons. Port inventory continued to accumulate, the ships at the port gradually unloaded, and the congestion situation improved. Steel mill inventory decreased week - on - week. The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 88.342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5053 million tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.8327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.018 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 days. Steel mill inventory continued to decline, daily consumption continued to decrease with the downward trend of pig iron output, the inventory - to - sales ratio weakened, and steel mills were not willing to replenish inventory [2] Profit Side - The landing profit of PB powder was - 13.33 yuan/ton (+ 10.42 yuan/ton), and the landing profit of Super Special powder was - 6.2 yuan/ton (+ 13.02 yuan/ton) [2] Basis and Spread Side - The basis of the 05 contract was 47.5 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 22.5 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan/ton [2]