Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating The report anticipates that coke will mainly experience short - term volatile and upward movement [3]. 2) Core Viewpoint Considering that coke port inventories are at a relatively high level, independent coking enterprises' inventories continue to accumulate, and steel mills' coke inventories have reached a medium level; steel mill开工率 declines seasonally and profits are under continuous pressure, leading to a slightly loose supply - demand situation for coke. However, the winter storage and replenishment needs of coking plants and steel mills are gradually emerging, combined with the warming macro - atmosphere. Overall, coke is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a.行情分析 - Coke Production: As of December 12, for all independent coking enterprises, the capacity utilization rate was 73.16% with a daily output of 63.98 tons. For 247 domestic steel mills, the daily coke output was 46.61 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.95% [1]. - Coke Inventory: Steel mills' coke inventory increased by 10 tons to 635.28 tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory increased by 10.88 tons to 87.32 tons (reaching a five - month high), port inventory was 181.2 tons (a year - on - year increase of 27%), and the comprehensive coke inventory was 903.8 tons (an increase of 20.8 tons) [1]. - Profit: The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 44 yuan/ton. In Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei, the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke was 61 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 89 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Demand: As the seasonal off - season deepens, the supply and demand in the steel market both decrease. The profitability of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.43 percentage points to 35.93%. The blast furnace operating rate and blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.16% to 85.92%, and the daily hot metal output decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons compared with last week (3.27 tons less than last year) [1]. b. Upstream Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic coal mine production has slightly shrunk, and overall supply remains at a relatively low level. However, due to the high - level import coal clearance volume, the total coking coal supply is increasing marginally. Although there is some restocking behavior in the market recently, downstream procurement remains cautious, and coal mine inventories continue to accumulate, suppressing prices. After the second round of coke price cuts, attention should be paid to the release of downstream restocking and speculative demand [2]. c.期现行情 - Futures Market: The 05 coke contract opened at 1661, rose 0.48% during the day, closed at 1670, and increased its position by 514 lots [3]. - Spot Market: The spot market for coke at ports remained stable, and the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1430 [4]. - News: The Indonesian government plans to impose a 1% - 5% tariff on coal exports starting from 2026. The Yimin Coal Mine in Ejin Horo Banner was ordered to suspend production for rectification for two days [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：市场冷清，盘面收平 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面低开低走，震荡收平，现货价格多以下滑为主，低端价格有成 交，市场冷清。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1600- 1670 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端，高端报价工厂主发前期预收订单，成交寥 寥。基本面来看，今年气头减产时间及数量弱与往年，主要系天然气资源同比 宽松，限气幅度有所收窄，但目前天然气装置的利润低，后续装置停车问题还 需进一步验证，近两日日产窄幅波动。农业需求处于淡季阶段，期货价格阴跌 后，贸易商拿货减少。工业需求月内连续转好，直到本周增速有所放缓，目前 复合肥政策尚不明朗，接货谨慎，发运以前期订单为主，提升空间有限。而其 他工业需求端因环保检查的结束而逐渐复工，后续冬储需求还将继续释放，尿 素下游依然有韧性。内需加出口推进尿素厂内库存持续去化，后续冬储的持续 释放并且上游装置的气头减产，预计库存依旧去化为主。近两日宏观反内卷情 绪再起，而尿素基本面无法提供反弹动能，但有下行支撑，盘面窄幅波动为 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1626 元/吨开盘 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on December 16, most domestic futures main contracts declined Palladium rose over 4%, platinum and PVC rose over 2%, and polysilicon, LPG, coke, and soda ash rose over 1% On the downside, Shanghai tin fell over 3%, Shanghai nickel, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and rapeseed oil fell over 2%, and stainless steel, sugar, Shanghai zinc, and SC crude oil fell over 1% [6][7] 2. Core Views - The overall supply of the commodities market is complex, with different factors affecting each commodity The market is generally cautious, and the price trends of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and seasonal factors [9][11][12] 3. Commodity Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper prices fell from high levels The implementation of Document 770 may increase scrap copper supply SMM expects December electrolytic copper production to increase by 6 57 million tons month-on-month The copper foil sector remains highly prosperous, while copper rod and tube sectors are under pressure Copper prices are supported by new energy vehicle demand and are unlikely to fall significantly [9] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, showing strength within the day Although production growth is slowing, December production is expected to increase by about 3% There is a supply-demand gap, and downstream demand supports prices However, caution is needed as the peak season nears its end and purchase tax policies change [10][11] Crude Oil - OPEC+ will maintain overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026 The demand peak season has ended, and the market is in a supply surplus situation with geopolitical uncertainties affecting prices Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [12] Asphalt - The asphalt supply is decreasing, with the December production forecast to decline The downstream demand is weakening due to factors such as funds and weather The price is expected to fluctuate [14] PP - The PP downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level in the same period, and the supply is increasing with new capacity The demand is weakening at the end of the peak season The upward space is limited, and the L-PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16] Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased, and the downstream demand is weakening with the exit of the agricultural film peak season The supply is increasing with new capacity The upward space is limited, and the L-PP spread is expected to narrow [17] PVC - The PVC开工率 is slightly decreasing, and the downstream demand is poor The export is increasing at the cost of price reduction, and the inventory pressure is high The upward space is limited in the traditional demand off-season [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low but rose within the day The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak However, with the end of the year approaching, there may be winter storage demand The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [20] Urea - The urea futures price fluctuated slightly The supply is affected by gas restrictions, and the demand is in the off-season but has some resilience The inventory is expected to continue to decline [21][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the price of Shanghai copper dropped from a high level, after a significant price increase last week, the scrap copper enterprises were cautious, leading to a wider spread between refined and scrap copper. After the clarification of Document 770, the production enthusiasm in relevant regions such as Anhui and Jiangxi may change, potentially increasing the supply of scrap copper. The copper processing profit was squeezed this week, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip was weak, with the capacity utilization rate declining. The copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure, and most enterprises chose to wait and see, only maintaining the raw material procurement for rigid orders. The copper foil remained at a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand for new energy vehicles. Fundamentally, the long - term contracts are still under negotiation, and the processing fees mostly ended in negative values. Before 2026, the pre - demand for new energy vehicles will increase the consumption demand for copper, providing support for copper prices and preventing a sharp decline. Future attention should be paid to the processing fee negotiation next year [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.05%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The cumulative production from January to November increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month, an increase of 5.96%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.69% [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and went high, but declined during the day. - Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China was - 115 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China was 90 yuan/ton. On December 15, 2025, the LME official price was $11,730 per ton, and the spot premium was + $44.5 per ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of the latest data on December 15, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $43.33 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.41 cents per pound [7] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 42,200 tons, an increase of 9,663 tons from the previous period. As of December 15, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 97,200 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, an increase of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 452,800 short tons, an increase of 3,320 short tons from the previous period [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it indicates that the oil and粕 market is in a weak and volatile state [1][4] Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market shows a marginal destocking trend but remains at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The near - month futures of soybean meal have strong support for auction transactions, while the far - month contracts are expected to remain volatile. The oil market is in a weak trend, and after the negative factors of palm oil and rapeseed oil are gradually realized, the market may enter a volatile phase again. The delay of the US biofuel policy may prolong the period of weak and volatile oil prices, and there is no upward driving factor in the short term [2][4] Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - NOPA data shows that the US soybean crushing volume in November decreased by 5.1% from the record high in October but increased by 11.8% compared with the same period in 2024. As of last Thursday, the sown area of soybeans in the 2025/26 season in Brazil reached 97% of the expected area, with good rainfall in most producing areas [1] - As of December 12, 2025, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 110.36 million tons, a decrease of 5.73 million tons from the previous week. The second batch of imported soybean auctions in China sold 513,883 tons today, with a transaction rate of 62.88% and a transaction volume of 323,118 tons. The premium level in Shandong and Tianjin regions decreased significantly compared with last week [2] Oils Palm Oil - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 15.89% compared with the same period last month, and the production decreased by 2.97% compared with the same period last month. Palm oil is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand in the short term and will maintain a weak trend [3][4] Rapeseed Oil - Due to the strong foreign production increase expectation and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the premium of rapeseed oil has significantly retreated. After continuous decline, the market has returned to rationality. Future attention should be paid to rapeseed purchases in the next quarter and the possibility of restarting purchases of Canadian rapeseed [3] Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil market is in a period of loose supply and demand, with no obvious driving force. The US biofuel policy has been postponed to the first quarter of next year, and the buying power of US soybean oil will remain weak before the policy is implemented [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it will take time to break through upward. Considering the shipping data in November, the arrival pressure in December is still large, and it is difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival under the import pressure from December to January [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 10, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 123.44 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 10.82 million tons, and that in South China decreased by 0.68 million tons. The significant reduction in port inventory was due to factors such as vessel unloading issues and the flow of methanol back to the inland. In terms of imports, due to gas restrictions in Iran, some plants stopped production, and the daily average production capacity dropped to around 15,000 tons. However, 1.25 billion tons were loaded in November, and the expected arrival volume within the year remains high, so the import pressure still exists [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In November, China's industrial added value of large - scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the expected 5% and the previous value of 4.9%. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8% and the previous value of 2.9%. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that in November, the year - on - year increase in consumer prices further expanded, and positive changes continued to emerge. On December 16, CIMC Enric's first mass - production bio - methanol (green methanol) project in China was put into operation in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The operating rate of Iranian plants has further decreased, but considering the shipping data in November, the arrival pressure in December is still large. Under the import pressure from December to January, it is difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Report's Core View The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged with a weak trading atmosphere. The upward space of plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 16, new maintenance devices such as the second phase of HDPE of Zhonghan Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE remained at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. There is new plastic production capacity put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, and traders are cautious about the future market, so plastics' upward space is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6543 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The position increased by 21355 lots to 510143 lots [2] - Spot: Most of the PE spot market declined, with a price change range of - 200 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6400 - 6620 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8050 - 8780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6770 - 7940 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 16, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 84%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE remained at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell to $60/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, there is no further macro - level positive news, the spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 16, there were few changes in maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 24% [1] - Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of recent years. On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The United States is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, and crude oil prices have fallen [1] - In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year new production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with increasing positions, with a minimum price of 6,230 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,278 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,256 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.13%. The open interest increased by 11,398 lots to 497,942 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions have declined. The drawstring PP is quoted at 5,980 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On December 16, new maintenance devices such as the second - phase HDPE of Sinopec - SK Wuhan Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of plastics dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - Demand side: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Tuesday, the early - morning inventory of petrochemicals decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 02 dropped to $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing producers will pause production increases in Q1 2026. With the end of the peak oil demand season, EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventories was less than expected, while the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations. The US crude oil production is near its historical high. Amid geopolitical factors and supply - demand imbalances, the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 producers will pause Q1 2026 production increases. The end of the demand peak, along with US inventory and production data, geopolitical factors like the US - Venezuela stand - off and the attempt to promote a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, contribute to a supply - surplus market. Saudi Aramco set the lowest price for "Arab Light Crude" sold to Asia in January 2026 since January 2021 [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2601 fell 1.51% to 430.5 yuan/ton, with a low of 427.3 yuan/ton and a high of 435.4 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 5006 to 18878 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA raised the Q4 2025 US crude oil production by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.386 million barrels per day, non - OPEC+ supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the Q4 2025 global oil demand by 90,000 barrels per day. IEA adjusted the 2025 and 2026 global oil demand growth rates upwards and the supply growth rates downwards. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global oil demand growth rates [3]. Supply and Demand - OPEC's October crude oil production was reduced by 21,000 barrels per day to 2.8481 million barrels per day, and November production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 2.848 million barrels per day. OPEC+ November production increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of December 5 increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 1.3853 million barrels per day. US oil product four - week average supply increased to 2.0417 million barrels per day, with gasoline and diesel demand showing different trends [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月16日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.1个百分点至27.8%，较去年同期低了0.9个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅 为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青 开工环比下跌2个百分点至27%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华北地区炼厂多控量交付前期合同， 其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少9.69%至25.34万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环 比上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。伊拉克部分前期故障油田恢复生产，美国仍在极力促成 俄乌和谈，乌克兰就安全保障作出一定妥协，欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格偏弱震荡。 由于美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押了一艘大型油轮，美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施，其 中包括运输委内瑞拉石油的公司和船只，市场担忧委内瑞拉重质原油的出口，影响国内沥青的生产。 本周河北新海转产，低价货源减少。北方迎来降温降雪，道路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求将进一步转 弱 ...