Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The soybean market shows a pattern of "price increase driven by sentiment in production areas and limited by demand". It will remain volatile in the short - term, and domestic soybeans may decline if the near - month auction volume of imported soybeans drops [1] - For corn, the selling pressure on prices will gradually decrease as the current sales progress advances. After the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing the short - term upward space, but the worst stage is over, and there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1] - Egg spot prices have stabilized, but the upward drive weakens as the price approaches the cost line. The short - term supply is still loose, and the far - month contracts have no obvious trend [2] - The pig market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with stable prices. Demand increase is expected to be greater than supply increase, which may drive prices up marginally to near the cost line. The far - month contracts may rise after the Spring Festival, but significant trends still need to wait [2] Group 3: Summary by Product Soybean - The soybean market has the characteristic of "price increase driven by sentiment in production areas and limited by demand". Northeast production areas lead the increase, while the southern market follows but with insufficient demand. In the short - term, there is a game between hoarding sentiment on the supply side and cautious procurement on the demand side. It will maintain a volatile pattern, and domestic soybeans may decline if the near - month auction volume of imported soybeans drops [1] Corn - The average grassroots sales progress in Northeast China is about 38% according to three - party data and 42% according to the National Grain and Oil Information Center. The selling pressure on prices will gradually decrease. The inventory in the trading link is significantly higher than last year, which is a key variable for the market trend. After the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing the short - term upward space, but the worst stage is over, and there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1] Egg - Egg spot prices have stabilized, but the upward drive weakens as the price approaches the cost line. The short - term supply is still loose, and the near - month spot remains volatile. The far - month contracts are affected by the inconsistent expectations of production capacity reduction and the actual progress, and there is no obvious trend [2] Pig - The pig market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with stable prices. The daily average slaughter volume in December has only increased slightly, and the weight gain is not obvious. With the cooling and expected bacon - curing, demand increase is expected to be greater than supply increase, which may drive prices up marginally to near the cost line. However, there is still a large supply pressure. The decline in the near - month inventory, especially the breeding sow inventory, makes the far - month contracts likely to rise after the Spring Festival, but significant trends still need to wait [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to decline, providing support. The stabilization of furnace materials boosts cost support. The market has digested the off - season demand and the news of export license management through previous price drops, and the macro - economic outlook is positive. Pay attention to the start of winter stockpiling from late December to January before the Spring Festival. The price of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Price**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract has shrunk for three consecutive days, with narrow intraday fluctuations. It closed at 3,245 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase, showing a stable and rising trend in the past three trading days [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot is 25 yuan, close to flat water [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 11, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.0871 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 114,100 tons year - on - year. It is at a near 4 - month low, and the output has been continuously declining recently. Steel mills may have the intention to switch production to rebar, which may marginally reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [4] - **Demand**: The weekly apparent consumption decreased by 28,900 tons to 3.1197 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 50,200 tons year - on - year. The domestic manufacturing demand is weak, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and a weak willingness for active stockpiling. The export demand is good, sharing the domestic supply pressure and providing support [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 32,600 tons to 3.9709 million tons week - on - week (social inventory decreased by 73,700 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 41,100 tons). The total inventory is at a near 4 - year high, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate, suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the further inventory reduction speed [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on steel export license management have been introduced. In the short term, it may trigger a rush to export, but the long - term expectation of export restrictions is rising, which may lead some export resources to be sold domestically, intensifying the domestic supply pressure. In addition, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office emphasized that expanding domestic demand is a key task for next year, but it will take time for the policy to be transmitted to terminal demand, and it is difficult to provide substantial support in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The expectation of supply reduction is increasing, winter stockpiling demand has started, there is policy support (such as the "14th Five - Year Plan" and infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal enhance cost support [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The demand is seasonally weak, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with a light spot trading atmosphere. It is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 17, there were few changes in maintenance units, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 24% [1] - Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1] - On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has continued to decline, and the crude oil price has dropped [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance units has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited boost to the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,226 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,275 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,254 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.05%. The position increased by 21,552 lots to 519,494 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 5,980 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking Supply - On December 17, there were few changes in maintenance units, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level [4] Demand - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] Inventory - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Crude Oil - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea market rebounded today due to a sudden Indian tender, with the futures price rising and the spot market seeing improved transactions. However, there is significant upward pressure, and the key to a breakout lies in the increase in downstream demand. The supply remains high, and the demand shows mixed trends with potential for winter storage demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The futures market of urea opened higher and rebounded, with the main 2601 contract closing at 1646 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. The spot market had active transactions, with some factories stopping sales. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1590 - 1670 yuan/ton [1][2][4]. - The daily urea production was 19.56 tons, remaining stable, and the operating rate was 80.6%. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a decrease of 5.45 tons from last week, and the pre - order days were 6.24 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period [10][11]. - The basis of the January contract in Henan weakened, standing at 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Futures Market - The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1638 yuan/ton, closed at 1646 yuan/ton, with a trading volume increase of 1.29%. The open interest was 164,528 lots, an increase of 10,535 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 5,139 lots and short positions by 7,107 lots [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,202, a decrease of 12 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - Upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the transaction was hot. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1590 - 1670 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having relatively lower prices [1][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The daily production remained above 190,000 tons, and the gas - based production reduction was weaker than in previous years due to looser natural gas resources [1]. - Demand: Agricultural demand was in the off - season, and traders replenished stocks in a timely manner. The policy of compound fertilizers was unclear, and the start - up speed of compound fertilizers was expected to slow down. Other industrial demand was gradually resuming, and winter storage demand was expected to continue to be released [1]. - Inventory: The overall inventory continued to decline, mainly concentrated in the Northeast and Northwest regions, while the inventory in the main delivery areas increased slightly [1].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic data affects market sentiment, and the copper market fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. If there are disruptions in the mining end, copper prices may rise significantly. During the interest - rate cut cycle, attention should be paid to US economic data [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, then turned positive in the afternoon. In November, non - farm payrolls increased slightly, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Traders expect two interest rate cuts next year. The November SMM China electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a 11.76% increase. SMM expects the December electrolytic copper production to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper product profits are squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip is weak. Copper tube enterprises are restricted by capital pressure and mostly choose to wait and see. Copper foil maintains a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand of new - energy vehicles [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, then turned positive in the afternoon [1][4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was 75 yuan/ton. On December 16, 2025, the LME official price was $11,635/ton, and the spot premium was + $1/ton [4] Supply Side - As of December 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.33/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.41 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 44,900 tons, a decrease of 907 tons from the previous period. As of December 15, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 97,200 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 166,900 tons, an increase of 725 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 454,600 short tons, an increase of 1,821 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoint - The plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 行情分析 - On December 17, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's HDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 86%, at a neutral level. The new production capacity of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) was put into operation in October, and that of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) in November [1][4] - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Recently, the petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. The downstream procurement willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling at reduced prices [1] 期现行情 Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6479 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The trading range was between 6470 - 6543 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The open interest increased by 29,984 lots to 540,127 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6350 - 6570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8000 - 8680 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6770 - 7940 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On December 17, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 86%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 60 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]

软商品日报：供需宽松下无上涨驱动 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 17 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、泛糖科技 、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 棉花：随着新棉加工工作接近尾声，新疆棉花企业根据自身经营节奏，在当 前价格高位积极制定并执行套期保值策略，或选择对前期签订的预售合同进行点 价成交，以锁定利润、规避风险。据了解，多数新疆棉企预计在本月底至下月初 完成籽棉加工任务。由于今年预售合同签订较为充分，实际皮棉库存压力相对有 限，企业销售节奏整体平稳有序。 现货宽松下，远月种植面积结构调整引发盘面出现一定反弹，但是 2026 年 度的减产预期更多在现货面会体现在 10 月后，而近月可能上行空间仍有较大限 制，今天盘面冲高回落更是印证了上方压力，预估震荡偏强为主。 白糖：巴西蔗糖行业协会（Unica）公布数据显示，截止 12 月下半月，巴西 中南部地区 2025/2026 年度甘蔗压榨量为 5.92266 亿吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View After the disturbance of macro - events gradually fades, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With the shipment stabilizing and rising, weak rigid demand, and inventory accumulation, the overall fundamentals are weak. However, the back structure of the futures contract and the futures discount under the positive basis provide some support for the futures price. Therefore, the recent iron ore price will generally fluctuate within a range with relatively small volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly higher during the day, closing at 768 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was nearly 230,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 9,000 lots to 489,000 lots, with 8.2 billion yuan of settled funds. The short - term price maintains a slightly stronger range - bound trend [1]. - **Spot Price**: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose by 1 to 784 yuan, and Super Special powder rose by 1 to 673 yuan. The main swap contract was at 102.55 (+1.02) US dollars/ton. Spot prices rose slightly [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 817.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 49.2 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 20.5 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contract showed a back structure + positive basis, which may further limit the downside space of futures [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments growing, and Brazil's shipment growth rate being relatively large. The shipments of mines in non - mainstream countries weakened month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the possible end - of - year shipment rush by mines. The arrivals this period increased significantly month - on - month, and the rhythm of ore arrivals still fluctuated greatly [2]. - **Demand**: In the seasonal off - season, both environmental and annual overhauls have been carried out, molten iron production continued to decline sharply, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened month - on - month, the daily consumption and inventory of sinter powder both declined, molten iron production is expected to continue to weaken, and the release of restocking demand is still slow [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, with more arrivals during the week and intensified port congestion. Steel mill inventory decreased instead of increasing month - on - month. With the decline of molten iron production, daily consumption weakened month - on - month, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, and steel mills' willingness to restock was weak. Overall, the fundamentals remain loose [2]. 3.3 Macro - level Analysis - **US**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in its December meeting, and the tone was more dovish than the market - expected "hawkish rate cut". It not only announced a short - term bond purchase plan, but Fed Chairman Powell also sent dovish signals. Although the non - farm payrolls in November rebounded slightly, the unemployment rate reached a four - year high and entered the warning zone, indicating that the US job market continued to cool down [3]. - **China**: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", and continued to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The primary task for next year is to expand domestic demand, focusing on increasing urban and rural residents' income and releasing the potential of service consumption, and promoting the transformation of old and new driving forces through innovation. The economic data in November showed that industrial production still had resilience, but the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales dropped to 1.3%, indicating weak domestic demand and still relying on policy support [3].

【冠通期货研究报告】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 焦炭日报：短期震荡偏强运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 17 日 【行情分析】 焦炭产量：截止 12 月 12 日独立焦企全样本：产能利用率为 73.16%，日均 产量 63.98 万吨；全国 247 家钢厂焦炭日均产量 46.61 ，产能利用率 85.95% 。 焦炭库存，钢厂焦炭库存累增 10 万吨至 635.28 万吨，同时独立焦企焦炭库 存也增加 10.88 万吨至 87.32 万吨，创近 5 个月高位，港口库存 181.2 万吨，同 比增幅达 27%，焦炭综合库存 903.8 万吨、增加 20.8 万吨。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利 44 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利 61 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 100 元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 89 元/ 吨。 下游需求，随着季节性淡季逐步深入，钢材市场供需双减，247 家钢厂盈利 率减少 0.43 个百分点至 35.93%，高炉开工率环比下降的同时，高炉炼铁产能利 用率也减少 1.16％至 85.92%，日均铁水产量较 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the decline in production, the rise of furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide support at the bottom. The market has digested the off - season demand and news of steel export licenses. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future, and is predicted to run with a slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start of winter storage demand [7] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - The main contract of rebar has seen three consecutive days of shrinking trading volume and narrow intraday fluctuations, closing at 3084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.1%. The trading volume was 593,611 lots, showing a stable and rising trend in the past three trading days [1] - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The futures price was at a discount of 196 yuan/ton to the spot price, which may support the futures price to some extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply: As of the week ending December 11, rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week - on - week to 1.7878 million tons, and decreased by 392,900 tons year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week - on - week and 1.92% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, down 0.43% from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons. The decline in production was mainly due to blast furnace maintenance and loss - induced production cuts [2] - Demand: Demand has entered the traditional off - season. As of the week ending December 11, the apparent consumption decreased by 138,900 tons week - on - week to 2.0309 million tons, and decreased by 345,700 tons year - on - year. It is at a near - 4 - year low. Spot market transactions are mainly for rigid procurement, and speculative demand is low. Real estate data continued to decline in November, and the real estate sector still drags down demand. Future attention should be paid to infrastructure demand [2] - Inventory: As of the week ending December 11, the total inventory decreased by 243,100 tons week - on - week to 4.795 million tons, with the social inventory decreasing by 224,300 tons and the steel mill inventory slightly decreasing by 18,800 tons. The destocking of social inventory shows the current demand resilience. The overall inventory pressure is still controllable [3][4] Macroeconomic aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aims to stabilize the real estate market, control new construction, destock, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook is moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry [4] Cost aspect - The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke have stabilized and rebounded, enhancing cost support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Continuous supply contraction, ongoing inventory destocking, expectations of loose policies, large discount on the futures price providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and the stop - fall and rebound of coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [6] - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [6] Short - term View Summary - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the decline in production, the rise of furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide support at the bottom. The market has digested the off - season demand and news of steel export licenses. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future, and is predicted to run with a slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start of winter storage demand [7]