【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 12 日 【行情分析】 尿素日报：雨雪天气恐影响发运 尿素盘面低开低走，日内下跌超 1%。现货价格保持稳定，以窄幅波动为 主，下游观望情绪浓厚。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围 多在 1630-1680 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端，高端价位成交寥寥。基本面来 看，前期装置复产后，日产有所回升，今日肥易通数据显示日产约 19.5 万吨， 但后续气头装置检修依然在继续，中下旬产量依然有下降区间。下游以经销商 及复合肥厂拿货为主。由于原料端价格的上涨，复合肥成品价格居高，导致终 端畏高情绪。工厂走货以前期订单发运为主，本期开工负荷增速大幅下降，环 比增长 0.09%，依然同比偏低 2.97%，虽有一定的回升空间，但受制于原料端高 企的价格及终端的疲软心态，预计复产进程有限，周末华北地区大雪天气，影 响发运，推迟后续备货节奏。本期库存继续去化，环比去化 4.36%。综合来 说，天气影响市场对后市的需求，周末收单预计下滑，盘面抗跌性转弱，短期 难有大幅反弹。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1631 元/吨开盘, 低开低走，日内下跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View - No clear core view presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: The current period's port total inventory is 15,431.42, a weekly increase of 130.61 compared to the previous period of 15,300.81 [1] - **Daily Average Port Clearance Volume**: The current daily average port clearance volume is 319.19, with a weekly increase of 0.74 from the previous 318.45 [1] - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory**: Steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,834.2 in the current period, a weekly decrease of 150.53 from 8,984.73 in the previous period [1] - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: The current daily consumption of imported ore by steel mills is 283.27, a weekly decrease of 1.80 from 285.07 in the previous period [1] - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume is 2,480.5 in the current period, a weekly decrease of 218.80 from 2,699.3 in the previous period [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Production**: The production of domestic iron ore concentrate is 37.99 in the current period, a weekly decrease of 0.03 from 38.02 in the previous period [1] - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: The daily average hot metal production is 229.2 in the current period, a weekly decrease of 3.10 from 232.3 in the previous period [1] - **Steel Mill Operating Rate**: The steel mill operating rate is 78.63% in the current period, a weekly decrease of 1.53 percentage points from 80.16% in the previous period [1] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate is 85.92% in the current period, a weekly decrease of 1.16 percentage points from 87.08% in the previous period [1] - **Steel Mill Profitability Rate**: The steel mill profitability rate is 35.93% in the current period, a weekly increase of 0.43 percentage points from 36.36% in the previous period [1] Port Inventory Variety Structure - **Coarse Powder**: The current inventory of coarse powder is 11,763.4, a weekly increase of 55.53 from 11,707.87 in the previous period [1] - **Lump Ore**: The current inventory of lump ore is 2,057.33, a weekly increase of 20.84 from 2,036.49 in the previous period [1] - **Pellets**: The current inventory of pellets is 296.47, a weekly increase of 5.93 from 290.54 in the previous period [1] - **Iron Concentrate**: The current inventory of iron concentrate is 1,314.22, a weekly increase of 48.31 from 1,265.91 in the previous period [1] - **Trading Ore**: The current inventory of trading ore is 10,024.62, a weekly increase of 9.77 from 10,014.85 in the previous period [1] - **Brazilian Ore**: The current inventory of Brazilian ore is 5,807.04, a weekly decrease of 27.49 from 5,834.53 in the previous period [1] - **Australian Ore**: The current inventory of Australian ore is 6,667.43, a weekly increase of 136.76 from 6,530.67 in the previous period [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the report Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current week's soda ash开工率 is 84.35%, up 3.61 from the previous value, and the产量 is 73.54 tons, up 3.15 tons. The heavy产量 is 39.78 tons, up 1.63 tons, and the light产量 is 33.76 tons, up 1.52 tons. The current week's float glass开工率 is 73.844%, up 0.217 from the previous value, the number of production lines is 219, up 1, and the产量 is 108.4895 tons, down 0.02 tons [1] Inventory - The current week's soda ash厂内库存 is 149.43 tons, down 4.43 tons. The heavy库存 is 79.05 tons, down 2.03 tons, and the light库存 is 70.38 tons, down 2.4 tons. The库存可用天数 is 12.39 days, down 0.37 days. The current week's float glass库存 is 5822.7 ten thousand weight boxes, down 121.5 ten thousand weight boxes, and the库存可用天数 is 26.3 days, down 0.5 days [1] Profit - The current week's soda ash天然气利润 is -196.42 yuan/ton, up 26.58 yuan/ton. The氨碱法毛利 is -67.6 yuan/ton, up 0.9 yuan/ton, the联产法毛利 is -49 yuan/ton, up 49.5 yuan/ton. The float glass石油焦利润 is 35.64 yuan/ton, up 14.28 yuan/ton, the煤制气利润 is 6.51 yuan/ton, down 0.01 yuan/ton [1] Basis & Spread - The current week's soda ash基差 is 10, up 40 from the previous value, the 1 - 5价差 is 50, down 20. The float glass基差 is 71, up 24, the 1 - 5价差 is 97, down 24. The纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 147, down 5, and the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 100, down 1 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets show a mixed performance. Stock markets in the US and Europe have different trends, with the US having a mixed close and Europe rising. Commodity markets also vary, including precious metals, energy, and base metals. In addition, the economic policies and data of different countries and regions have an impact on the market, such as China's economic policies and data, the US trade balance, and the EU's potential policy changes [5][9][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - US stock markets closed mixed, with the Dow up 1.34% at 48704.01, the S&P 500 up 0.21% at 6901, and the Nasdaq down 0.25% at 23593.86. VISA and Nike led the gains in the Dow. European stock markets rose across the board, with the German DAX up 0.68%, the French CAC40 up 0.79%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.49%. International precious metal futures generally rose, while oil futures fell. London base metals mostly rose [5] Important News Macroeconomic News - The World Bank raised its 2025 China economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points. China's exports are more diversified, and the government's policies support domestic consumption and investment. China's economic operation is stable and improving, and Shanghai Port's shipping and container throughput hit new highs. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies and measures to stabilize the real estate market [9][10] Energy and Chemical Futures - In Malaysia, natural rubber production, exports, and imports increased in October, while consumption and inventory decreased, and the average price dropped slightly. Citi expects oil prices to fall further in the early 2026, with a neutral outlook. Domestic soda ash inventory decreased slightly, production increased, and paper pulp inventory continued to decline. Singapore's fuel oil and light distillate inventories rose, while medium distillate inventory fell. The IEA adjusted its 2026 oil demand and supply forecasts, and OPEC+ increased production slightly in November [12][13][14] Metal Futures - In November 2025, most of the lithium - battery industry chain showed growth, but some products declined. A large refinery in North China reduced production due to raw material shortages. US initial jobless claims increased significantly [17] Black - Series Futures - HeSteel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price decreased slightly in December, and the quantity increased. The output and apparent demand of rebar decreased, as did the factory and social inventories. A coal mine in Henan was ordered to suspend production for rectification. The heavy - pollution weather warning in Xingtai was lifted. Mongolia plans to increase coal exports in 2026 and 2027. The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 44 yuan/ton [19][20][21] Agricultural Product Futures - The central reserve of frozen pork will conduct a series of rotation out - and - in transactions. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar decreased. Malaysia's palm oil production increased in early December. US soybean export sales increased, and Brazil's soybean production and planting area are expected to increase in 2025/26 [23][25][26] Financial Market Finance - A - shares declined, while the North - bound 50 index rose. Hong Kong stocks opened high and closed low. ZTE's A - and H - shares tumbled. There are rumors about the removal of quantitative trading equipment, but no official notice. "Mingming很忙" is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO [28][30] Industry - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to promote the innovation and development of the retail industry. China's auto and new - energy vehicle production and sales increased in November. The real - estate market is expected to see more policies in 2026, with a narrowing decline in sales area. Liaoning plans to develop the ice - and - snow tourism industry. The "pre - pricing trading" of gold in Shenzhen continues. The storage - chip industry faces a supply - demand imbalance [31][32][33] Overseas - The US trade deficit narrowed significantly in September. US initial jobless claims surged, while continuing claims dropped. The US Treasury Secretary proposed a change in regulatory direction. Ukraine's president may support holding elections during the war. The EU may postpone the ban on fuel - powered cars. The Swiss central bank maintained interest rates and lowered inflation expectations [34][36][38] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow hitting a new high. European stocks rose, driven by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut. There are rumors that SpaceX may go public in 2026 [39][40] Commodities - International precious metal futures rose, affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical factors. Oil prices fell due to supply - surplus expectations. London base metals mostly rose. The IEA adjusted its oil supply - surplus forecast, while OPEC expects a balanced market in 2026 [41][42] Bonds - China's bond market continued to perform well, with most interest - rate bond yields falling. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the money market was loose. The Japanese central bank has no intention to intervene in the bond - market for now. US bond yields showed different trends [43][45] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central bank emphasized maintaining RMB exchange - rate stability. The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [46] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data include Japan's industrial output and inventory, Germany and other European countries' CPI, and the US oil - drilling count. Upcoming events include the expiration of China's central - bank reverse - repurchase, speeches by Fed officials, and index sample adjustments and new - stock subscriptions [48][50]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized continuing proactive fiscal policies, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, debt scales, and expenditure volumes, optimizing fiscal expenditure structures, and using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. It also focused on stabilizing the real - estate market [2]. - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration ordered Mianchi Liangjiawa Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 2 days due to major accident hazards [2]. - Mongolia plans to export 90 million tons of coal in 2026 and aims for 100 million tons in 2027 with the operation of border railways [2]. - Citigroup predicts that oil prices may fall to an average of $60 per barrel by Q1 2026, with Brent crude expected to drop to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025 and have an annual average of $62 per barrel in 2026, ranging from $55 - $65 per barrel [2]. - As of December 11, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.4943 million tons, down 0.82 million tons (0.55% decline) from Monday, and production was 735,400 tons, up 31,500 tons (4.48% increase) week - on - week [2]. 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: silver, lithium carbonate, pulp, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3]. - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.79%, precious metals 30.91%, oilseeds and oils 8.87%, soft commodities 3.13%, non - ferrous metals 24.63%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 11.38%, energy 2.58%, chemicals 10.72%, grains 1.40%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.59% [3]. 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions from December 5 to December 11, 2025 [4]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.70%, a monthly decline of 0.39%, and an annual increase of 15.56%. Other indices also had different performance [5]. - In the fixed - income market, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had different daily, monthly, and annual performance [5]. - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had various performance [5]. - Other assets like the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index also showed different trends [5]. 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate. The supply is affected by factors such as the resumption of production in some refineries and the potential impact on Venezuelan heavy - crude exports, while demand will further weaken as road construction in the north winds down due to the drop in temperature and the increase in southern projects is limited. The current market is cautious about winter - storage contracts [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week - on - week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the expected domestic asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, Qilu Petrochemical will switch to asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate will rise slightly [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed results. The road - asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29%, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume increased 7.06% to 280,600 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level. With the drop in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, future demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited, so overall demand is average [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week - on - week and is still near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Crude Oil: Some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the United States have continued to decline, causing crude - oil prices to fluctuate weakly. The market is worried that the US seizure of a large tanker off the Venezuelan coast will affect the export of Venezuelan heavy crude and domestic asphalt production [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2602 rose 0.92% to 2,960 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,943 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,997 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,329 to 208,301 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 2,930 yuan/ton. The basis of the asphalt 02 contract fell to - 30 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week - on - week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment: From January to October, the investment in national highway construction decreased 6.0% year - on - year, with the same cumulative year - on - year growth rate as from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road - transport industry from January to October decreased slightly to - 4.3% from - 2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October dropped to - 0.1% from 1.1% from January to September [4]. - Social Financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social - financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 5, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared with the week of November 28 and is near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mainstream Regional Market Prices - Hebei's current price is 1710 yuan/ton, down 10 from the previous value of 1720 yuan/ton [2] - Henan's current price is 1690 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - Shandong's current price is 1710 yuan/ton, up 10 from the previous value of 1700 yuan/ton [2] - Shanxi's current price is 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 from the previous value of 1530 yuan/ton [2] - Jiangsu's current price is 1690 yuan/ton, up 10 from the previous value of 1680 yuan/ton [2] - Anhui's current price is 1680 yuan/ton, up 10 from the previous value of 1670 yuan/ton [2] - Heilongjiang's current price is 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - Inner Mongolia's current price is 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] Factory Prices - Hebei Dongguang's current price is 1690 yuan/ton, down 10 from the previous value of 1700 yuan/ton [2] - Shandong Hualu's current price is 1690 yuan/ton, down 10 from the previous value of 1700 yuan/ton [2] - Jiangsu Linggu's current price is 1730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - Anhui Haoyuan's current price is 1640 yuan/ton, down 10 from the previous value of 1650 yuan/ton [2] Basis - Shandong 05 basis is -21 yuan/ton, down 1 from the previous value of -20 yuan/ton [2] - Shandong 01 basis is -31 yuan/ton, up 3 from the previous value of -34 yuan/ton [2] - Hebei 05 basis is 9 yuan/ton, down 11 from the previous value of 20 yuan/ton [2] - Hebei 01 basis is -1 yuan/ton, down 7 from the previous value of 6 yuan/ton [2] Monthly Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread is 68 yuan/ton, up 4 from the previous value of 64 yuan/ton [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -10 yuan/ton, up 4 from the previous value of -14 yuan/ton [2] Warehouse Receipt Quantity - The total warehouse receipt quantity is 11652, up 424 from the previous value of 11228 [2] Previous Day's International Quotes (Large Granules) - Middle East FOB is 375 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - US Gulf FOB is 355.5 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - Egypt FOB is 450 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - Baltic FOB is 360 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2] - Brazil CFR is 405 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to be weak and volatile in the near term. Although the cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC and the government's action to study price - related standards provide some support, factors such as the decline in PVC开工率, high inventory, low demand in the traditional off - season, and falling prices of related commodities like coking coal suppress the market [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC开工率 decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream开工率 also declined slightly, and orders for downstream products are poor [1]. - India's cancellation of the BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about Chinese exports to India, and the anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled. However, after Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China lowered its December quotes by $30 - 60 per ton, export orders declined [1]. - Social inventory continued to increase and remains high. From January to October 2025, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas [1]. - New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua have been newly put into operation. But the开工 rate of some production enterprises is expected to decline, and the decline in production is limited [1]. [期现行情] - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a low of 4,273 yuan/ton, a high of 4,340 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,276 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.59%. The position volume decreased by 50,472 lots to 831,217 lots [2]. [基差方面] - On December 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,305 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,276 yuan/ton. The current basis is 29 yuan/ton, strengthening by 37 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a neutral level [3]. [基本面跟踪] - **Supply**: The operation of some devices such as Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu has declined. The PVC开工率 decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities from several companies have been put into operation or are in the process of production [4]. - **Demand**: The real estate industry is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, there were significant year - on - year declines in real estate investment, sales, new construction, and completion. As of the week of December 7, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 28.93% month - on - month, at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 4, PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% month - on - month to 1.0589 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and remains high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reaffirmed to pause production increase in Q1 next year. With the end of the peak oil demand season, the EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventories is less than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories exceeds expectations. The US crude oil production is slightly up and near the historical high. The risk premium of Russian crude oil due to sanctions has declined, and the crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the US have continued to fall. Considering multiple factors, the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and the EIA short - term energy outlook raises the expected inventory build - up, predicting that the crude oil price will oscillate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Analysis - OPEC+ maintains production in 2026, 8 countries pause Q1 production increase. Demand peak ends, US inventory data is unfavorable, production is high. Russia's risk premium drops, and oil crack spreads fall. Geopolitical issues persist, and the market is in supply surplus. Saudi Aramco sets a low price for Asian exports, and EIA expects weak price oscillation [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2601 fell 1.04% to 439.7 yuan/ton, with a low of 438.2 yuan/ton and a high of 445.8 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 889 to 28,200 lots [2]. Fundamental Data Tracking - EIA月报: Increases Q4 2025 US production by 400,000 barrels/day, non - OPEC+ supply by 50,000 barrels/day, and global production by 300,000 barrels/day. Reduces Q4 2025 global demand by 90,000 barrels/day. US EIA data: As of Dec 5, crude inventory decreased by 1.8 million barrels (less than expected), gasoline inventory increased by 6.397 million barrels (more than expected), refined oil inventory increased by 2.502 million barrels (more than expected), and Cushing inventory increased by 200,000 barrels. OPEC production: In September, it was down 13,000 barrels/day to 28.427 million barrels/day; in October, it was up 33,000 barrels/day to 28.46 million barrels/day. OPEC+ production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels/day to 43.02 million barrels/day compared to September. US production on Dec 5 week increased by 38,000 barrels/day to 13.853 million barrels/day, near the historical high [3]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.417 million barrels/day, up 0.31% year - on - year, with a reduced increase. Gasoline weekly demand increased 1.56% to 8.456 million barrels/day, and the four - week average demand was 8.509 million barrels/day, down 1.27% year - on - year. Diesel weekly demand increased 21.22% to 4.158 million barrels/day, and the four - week average demand was 3.708 million barrels/day, up 3.42% year - on - year. Diesel's rebound drove a 4.42% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on Shanghai copper futures, released on December 11, 2025, by Guantong Futures [1] - It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and inventory of copper Group 2: Market Conditions Futures and Spot Market - Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation [1][4] - The spot premium in East China was 0 yuan/ton, and in South China was 60 yuan/ton. On December 10, 2025, the LME official price was 11,626 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of +19 dollars/ton [4] Production and Consumption - In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than the expected 27.68%, down 2.62% month - on - month and 12.46% year - on - year. The advantage of refined - scrap spread was not obvious due to weak terminal consumption [1] - In December, 4 smelters were under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, to be reflected in January output. December production was expected to increase due to previous restarts [1] - The production of copper strips of Steel Union sample enterprises was 14,900 tons, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. Production slowed down due to cost increases and year - end caution [1] - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, with poor shipment and inventory accumulation. If orders remained weak, production would slow down further [1] - After the copper price increase, downstream demand was impacted, with high price - aversion sentiment. Market activity was low, and upstream inventory was accumulating [1] Group 3: Supply - Side Information - As of December 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.03 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.38 cents/pound [6] Group 4: Inventory Information - SHFE copper inventory was 31,500 tons, an increase of 2,530 tons from the previous period [9] - As of December 8, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 99,900 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous period [9] - LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous period [9] - COMEX copper inventory was 445,200 short tons, an increase of 2,119 short tons from the previous period [9]