研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年12月15日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.46个百分点至79.43%，PVC开工率继续小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。 PVC下游开工率略有下降，下游制品订单不佳。出口方面，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单有所回升，但印度市场价格 也在下跌，印度需求有限。上周社会库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-11月份，房地产仍 在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。 30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新增产能上，30万 吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化新近投产。焦煤等大宗商品反弹提振市场情绪，氯碱综合毛利下降， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the futures market, important macro - economic news, developments in various industries such as energy, metals, black - series, and agriculture, as well as the situation in the financial market including stocks, bonds, and international markets. It also lists upcoming economic indicators and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - The main contract of US crude oil closed down 1.24% at $58.11 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 1.2% to $61.97 per barrel [5] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.78% at $4126.3 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.50% at $51.08 per ounce. London base metals showed mixed results [6] - As of December 12 at 23:00, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends, with coking coal and caustic soda up over 3%, and ethylene glycol up nearly 2%. Palm oil, rapeseed oil, iron ore, soybeans, and soybean oil fell nearly 1% [7] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10 - 11. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy [10] - As of December 12, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose 108.83 points, and the China Export Containerized Freight Composite Index rose 0.3% [10] - The National Financial System Work Conference was held on December 12. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on December 15 [11] - In the first eleven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The M2 balance at the end of November was 336.99 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [13] - Ukraine has abandoned its ambition to join NATO to end the conflict with Russia. Relevant departments issued a notice to boost consumption [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - Russia's oil and gas revenue in December is expected to almost halve to $5.2 billion, the lowest monthly level since August 2020 [16] - Russia's seaborne refined oil exports in November decreased 0.8% from October to 7.494 million tons. Syria expects its natural gas daily output to increase to about 15 million cubic meters by the end of 2026 [18] Metal Futures - Several silicon material leading enterprises jointly established Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. The planned silicon material production capacity will not exceed 1.5 million tons, and the company's registered capital is 3 billion yuan [20] - Shandong Province plans to make the copper industry's total output value exceed 200 billion yuan by 2027. A Guinea mining enterprise will resume production on December 13 [20] - From March 21 - November 20, 2025, Iran's aluminum ingot production increased 3% year - on - year. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange revised relevant rules for lithium carbonate futures and options [21][23] - The exchange imposed a 6 - month trading restriction on some clients for exceeding the position limit in polysilicon futures [23] Black - Series Futures - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 120,360 tons, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 60 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.53 percentage points [25] - The purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills in Shandong and Hebei decreased. The total inventory of steel products in cities decreased by 369,200 tons this week [26][28] Agricultural Product Futures - As of the week of December 12, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 163.34 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 240.69 yuan per head [30] - In 2025, the national grain sown area, unit yield, and total output all increased. Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 increased 46.98% compared with the same period last month [30][31] - US exporters sold soybeans, corn, and soybean meal to China, unknown destinations, and Mexico respectively [31] Financial Market Finance - Last week, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated, and the technology - growth sector performed well. The ChiNext Index rose nearly 3% [34] - As of December 11, the total scale of CSI A500 - linked ETFs reached 203.7 billion yuan. Many stocks were investigated by institutions, and there was a wave of new fund issuances [34][35] - Fund managers believe that technology stocks may continue to be the main line, but the market next year may be more balanced, and the investment opportunities of some sectors are emerging [35] - Zhongxin Securities believes that the stock market should focus on varieties with overseas exposure as the base and positive domestic demand changes [37] - Weilan New Energy is being guided by CSC to list on the ChiNext [37] Industry - China's artificial intelligence industry is accelerating, and the core industry scale is expected to exceed one trillion yuan in 2025. The added value of the machinery industry has been growing [38][39] - China's natural gas production is expected to reach 300 billion cubic meters in 2030. China is promoting the "aluminum for copper" in air - conditioners [39] - The steel industry is called on to combat "involution", and China's first deep - water oilfield has achieved a new production record [40] - The supply of traditional DDR4/5 DRAM memory is expected to be tight until 2028 [41] Overseas - Ukraine and the US are negotiating a "peace plan". South Korea's ICT product exports in November increased 24.3% year - on - year [42][43] International Stock Markets - SpaceX is preparing for a potential IPO in 2026, aiming to raise funds for three major projects. If successful, it may be the largest IPO in history [45] Commodities - The China Taiyuan Coal Trading Center and Tencent Cloud will jointly build a coal price index large - model. Institutions are more optimistic about gold next year [46] Bonds - Three Shenzhen enterprises completed green foreign debt registration, with a total contract amount exceeding 170 million yuan. Vanke's bond extension plan was not passed [47] - The issuance scale of green financial bonds and brokerage bonds has increased significantly this year [49] Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events - A series of economic indicators from countries such as Japan, the UK, China, Germany, and the US will be released, including industrial added value, consumer price index, and real estate - related data [51] - Events such as central bank open - market operations, press conferences on economic operations, and corporate earnings reports are scheduled to take place [53][58]

Group 1: Hot News - Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the revision of the "Detailed Rules for the Lithium Carbonate Futures and Options Business of Guangzhou Futures Exchange", with Article 4 applicable to contracts LC2612 and later, and Article 53 effective from December 12, 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice to boost consumption, including using digital RMB smart - contract red envelopes, promoting personal consumption loans, and exploring new business models [2] - The "Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform" was launched, with the planned silicon material production capacity not exceeding 1.5 million tons, using a dual - track model to address industry competition [2] - China is accelerating the "aluminum replacing copper" in air - conditioners and related standard - setting, with one standard released and others in the process [3] - Ukraine and the US held a more than five - hour talk on the "peace plan" in Berlin, and the talk will continue on December 15 [3] Group 2: Key Commodities to Focus On - Key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, coking coal, alumina, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Night - session performance shows the following sector price changes: non - metallic building materials 2.63%, precious metals 32.00%, oilseeds and oils 8.68%, soft commodities 3.03%, non - ferrous metals 24.87%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 10.90%, energy 2.60%, chemicals 10.42%, grains 1.37%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.50% [4] Group 4: Sector Position - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index daily increase 0.41%, monthly increase 0.02%, annual increase 16.04%; S&P 500 daily decrease - 1.07%, monthly increase 0.12%, annual increase 16.59%; etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures daily decrease - 0.13%, monthly increase 0.04%, annual decrease - 0.86%; etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index daily decrease - 0.83%, monthly increase 0.81%, annual increase 2.43%; etc. [6] - Other: US dollar index daily increase 0.06%, monthly decrease - 0.38%, annual decrease - 8.68%; CBOE volatility daily increase 5.99%, monthly decrease - 1.65%, annual decrease - 7.32% [6] Group 6: Trends of Major Commodities - The report shows trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., as well as ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio [7]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月12日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存去库幅度不及预期，成品油库 存增幅超预期。美国原油产量小幅增加，位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽 连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，欧 美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难， 美国仍在施压乌克兰。目前G7和欧盟考虑禁止俄罗斯石油出口海运服务，取代油价上限。美国与委 内瑞拉军事对峙继续升级，美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押油轮，美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制 裁措施。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。欧美成品油裂解价差持续回落，美联储12 月议息会议尘埃落定，市场仍将担忧原油需求，美国石油钻井平台数量回升，OPEC+持续增产，中东 地区出口增加，全球原油浮库持续增加，里海管道联盟处于维修状态的3号SPM预计推迟至15日左右 恢复。伊拉克近期恢复 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PP supply - demand pattern remains unchanged with no further macro - level positive factors. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possibility of new PP capacity coming online this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of December 12, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On December 12, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Zhong'an United drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 85%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 28% [1][4]. - Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased as some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq resumed production, the US is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and the crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US has continued to decline [1]. - There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently. The downstream has entered the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products have started to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PP2601 contract decreased in an oscillatory manner with a position reduction. The lowest price was 6,110 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,186 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,129 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.18%. The open interest decreased by 58,109 lots to 293,184 lots [2]. - In the spot market, most of the PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 5,970 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 12, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Zhong'an United drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 85%, at a neutral level [4]. - On the demand side, as of the week of December 12, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 680,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End Information The Brent crude oil 02 contract dropped below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 12, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department 1. Market Performance Summary - As of the close on December 12, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Shanghai Tin rose over 4%, Shanghai Silver rose over 3%, polysilicon, Shanghai Zinc, and International Copper rose over 2%, while Shanghai Copper and Platinum rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, Liquefied Gas and Coking Coal dropped over 4%, Red Dates and Coke dropped over 3%, and Glass, Eggs, and PVC dropped over 2% [6]. - Among stock - index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 Stock - Index Futures (IF) rose 0.68%, the main contract of SSE 50 Stock - Index Futures (IH) rose 0.71%, the main contract of CSI 500 Stock - Index Futures (IC) rose 1.27%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Stock - Index Futures (IM) rose 0.68%. Among treasury - bond futures, the main contract of 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) dropped 0.01%, the main contract of 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) dropped 0.08%, the main contract of 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) dropped 0.13%, and the main contract of 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) dropped 0.70% [7]. 2. Individual Commodity Analysis 2.1 Copper - Shanghai Copper opened and closed higher, rising nearly 2% on the day. In December, 4 smelters are under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, which will be reflected in January's data. December production is expected to increase due to previous restarts. The production of copper strips in sample enterprises was 1.49 tons, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. The production rhythm slowed down due to rising costs, and enterprises were cautious. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, with poor shipments and inventory accumulation. After the price increase, downstream demand was weak, and inventory showed signs of accumulation. Overall, the copper price rose due to the Fed's potential rate cut and positive signals from a macro - economic meeting, but downstream buying interest was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance is expected to be tight and the price is expected to be strong [9]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high but closed lower. In November, production continued to grow, and although the growth rate slowed down with the arrival of the off - season for salt - lake lithium extraction, production is expected to increase by about 3% in December due to frequent upstream capacity expansion news. This week, the capacity utilization rate was 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year, supported by price increases and high downstream demand. The potential supply increase has not materialized as CATL did not resume production as scheduled on December 5. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased in November. Although downstream production continued to grow, the growth rate slowed down. The incremental demand for energy storage needs further verification. From January to November, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% respectively year - on - year, and the peak season is coming to an end. Overall, the growth of energy - storage demand and new - energy vehicle sales is slowing down, and lithium carbonate inventory is expected to increase. In the short term, supply and demand remain strong, but caution is advised as the downstream peak season nears its end [10][11]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2024. The peak demand season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventory was less than expected, while the increase in refined - oil inventory exceeded expectations. US crude oil production slightly increased and is near the historical high. The Trump administration is promoting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined. The crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US has been falling. The US and Russia have not reached an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine issue, and the US is still pressuring Ukraine. G7 and the EU are considering banning Russian oil - export shipping services. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and the US has imposed new sanctions on Venezuela. Geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. The crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US continues to fall. The Fed's December meeting has ended, and the market is still worried about crude oil demand. The number of US oil - drilling platforms has increased, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and Middle - East exports have increased. The global floating storage of crude oil has increased, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's No. 3 SPM is expected to resume operation around the 15th. Iraq has resumed production at the West Qurna 2 oilfield. Overall, the crude - oil market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. 2.4 Asphalt - The weekly asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, lower than the same period last year. In December, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year. Most downstream industries' operating rates declined, and the operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 2 percentage points to 27% due to funding and weather constraints. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 9.69% to 25.34 tons, at a moderate level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased and is near the lowest level in recent years. The recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil have led to a weakening of the crude - oil price. The US's sanctions on Venezuela have raised concerns about the export of heavy - crude oil and its impact on domestic asphalt production. Next week, Hebei Xinhai will switch production, reducing the supply of low - price products. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction is coming to an end, and overall demand is weak. The asphalt price in Shandong has stabilized, and the basis is at a moderate level. The winter - storage policies of some Shandong refineries are unclear, and the market is cautious. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate [14]. 2.5 PP - As of the week of December 12, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99%, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the plastic - braiding industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders were slightly lower than last year. On December 12, some maintenance facilities of Zhong'an United restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 85%, at a moderate level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring PP increased to about 28%. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, and inventory reduction is slow. The cost of PP decreased as the crude - oil price dropped due to the recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil. New capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance facilities has decreased. The downstream peak season is ending, orders for plastic - braiding and other products are decreasing, and the price of BOPP film has dropped again. There is no large - scale centralized procurement, and the market is lackluster. Traders are offering discounts to stimulate sales. The supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, and there is no further macro - economic positive news. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and the PP price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The L - PP price spread is expected to narrow due to potential new capacity for plastics and the end of the agricultural - film peak season [15][16]. 2.6 Plastic - On December 12, the number of maintenance facilities for plastics changed little, and the operating rate remained at about 90%, at a moderate level. As of the week of December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00%. The agricultural - film peak season is ending, orders are decreasing, and the raw - material inventory of agricultural films has decreased again. Orders for packaging films also decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, and inventory reduction is slow. The cost of plastics decreased as the crude - oil price dropped due to the recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil. New capacity of 500,000 tons/year from ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE was put into operation in October, and 700,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in November. The operating rate of plastics has increased slightly. The agricultural - film peak season is ending, orders are decreasing, and the peak - season performance is disappointing. The temperature has dropped, terminal construction has slowed down, and demand in the north has decreased. The price of agricultural films has stabilized after a decline. Downstream enterprises are mainly making just - in - time purchases, and the trading atmosphere is light. The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and there is no further macro - economic positive news. The plastic price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The L - PP price spread is expected to narrow due to potential new capacity for plastics and the end of the agricultural - film peak season [17]. 2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region remained stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43%, still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate decreased slightly, and orders for downstream products were poor. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, and the anti - dumping tax is likely to be cancelled. However, after Formosa Plastics' price cuts in December, export orders decreased, and social inventory increased slightly and remains high. From January to October 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased, at the lowest level in recent years, and the real - estate market needs time to recover. New capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua has been put into operation. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali production has decreased, and some enterprises' operating rates are expected to decline, but the production decline is limited. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, and December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand. Coupled with the decline in coking - coal prices, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [18][19]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened and closed lower, dropping over 4% on the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 922 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. At the supply end, a large amount of imported coal is entering the domestic market at the end of the year, and Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase in December. Some domestic factories are expected to reduce production after completing their annual production tasks. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking - coal mines was 85.31%, a decrease of 0.28% month - on - month. Although mine production has declined, downstream demand is weak, and mine inventory continues to increase. The total coking - coal inventory increased by 43.78 tons month - on - month, and the supply remains abundant. The second - round price cut for coke is expected to be implemented soon. Last week, the pig - iron production decreased by 0.93% week - on - week to 232.3 tons. Steel mills are entering the seasonal off - season, and their operating rates are expected to decline. Snowy weather over the weekend has affected transportation, and whether the price will stop falling depends on the restocking situation after the snow stops [20]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened high but closed lower, dropping over 1% on the day. The spot price remained stable with minor fluctuations, and downstream buyers were观望. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1630 to 1680 yuan/ton, with lower prices in Henan and few high - price transactions. Fundamentally, after the resumption of some production facilities, daily production has increased to about 19.5 tons, but some gas - based facilities are still under maintenance, and production is expected to decline in the second half of December. Downstream buyers are mainly dealers and compound - fertilizer manufacturers. Due to the rising raw - material prices, the price of compound fertilizers is high, and end - users are reluctant to buy. Fertilizer factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the operating rate increased by 0.09% month - on - month but is still 2.97% lower year - on - year. The recovery of production is limited due to high raw - material prices and weak end - user demand. Snowy weather in North China over the weekend has affected transportation and postponed the restocking process. Inventory decreased by 4.36% month - on - month. Overall, the weather has affected market demand, weekend orders are expected to decline, the price's resistance to decline is weakening, and there is little chance of a significant short - term rebound [21][22].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 12月12日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4260元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4220元/ 吨，目前基差在40元/吨，走强11元/吨，基差处于中性水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2025年12月12日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.46个百分点至79.43%，PVC开工 率继续小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有下降，下游制品订单不佳。印度将 关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC 以价换量，只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨后出口签单回落，上周出口签单基 本稳定。本周社会库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在 调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一 步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。 新增产能上， ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月12日 【行情分析】 12月12日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在90%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至12 月12日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.76个百分点至43.00%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继续下降， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再次下降，包装膜订单同样小幅下降，整体PE下游开工率仍 处于近年同期偏低位水平。近期石化去库缓慢，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，伊 拉克部分前期故障油田恢复生产，美国仍在极力促成俄乌和谈，欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原 油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE在10月投产，70万吨/年的中石 油广西石化11月投产。塑料开工率略有上涨。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单持续下降，旺季成色不及预 期，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格跌后暂稳，预计 后续下游开工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，部分行业进入淡季，贸易商对后市谨慎， 普遍降价积极出货。塑料供需格局整体未改，交易氛围偏淡，宏观暂未有进一步利好，预计近期塑 料偏弱震荡 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The copper futures market showed an upward trend with an intraday increase of nearly 2%. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and positive signals from a macro - level meeting drove the copper price up. However, downstream demand was weak after the price increase, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship was expected to be in a tight balance with a bullish tendency [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - In December, 4 smelters were under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, which would be reflected in January's output data. December's output was likely to increase due to the previous resumption of production by smelters. The production of copper strips in sample enterprises was 14900 tons with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. The production pace slowed due to rising costs, and enterprises maintained a cautious attitude approaching the end of the year. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, with poor sales and inventory accumulation. If orders remained weak, production would slow further. After the price increase, downstream demand was hit, and the market was inactive with a tendency of inventory accumulation [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened and closed higher, rising nearly 2% intraday. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 30 yuan/ton, and in South China was 85 yuan/ton. On December 12, 2025, the LME official price was 11708 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 32 dollars/ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of December 8, the spot TC was - 43.03 dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.38 cents/pound [8] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 32600 tons, an increase of 1102 tons from the previous period. As of December 11, the Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 100500 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 165900 tons, an increase of 875 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 447300 short tons, an increase of 2132 short tons from the previous period [11]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月12日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落0.1个百分点至27.8%，较去年同期低了0.9个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅 为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青 开工环比下跌2个百分点至27%，受到资金和天气制约。本周，华北地区炼厂多控量交付前期合同， 其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少9.69%至25.34万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环 比上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。伊拉克部分前期故障油田恢复生产，美国仍在极力促成 俄乌和谈，欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格偏弱震荡。由于美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押了一 艘大型油轮，美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施，其中包括运输委内瑞拉石油的公司和 船只，市场担忧委内瑞拉重质原油的出口，影响国内沥青的生产。下周河北新海转产，低价货源减 少。北方气温下降后，道路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求将进一步转弱，南方项目增量有限，整体需求 一般 ...